CHAPTER OUTLINE – PUBLIC OPINION/POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION
In a democracy, people must be able to freely express their opinions to government officials and others.
In turn, officials must recognize the importance of public opinion, often shaping and changing policy
based on it. Public opinion, critical of the ambitious initiatives of Democrats, took many seats away from
them in the 2010 elections. Public opinion favoring the repeal of “don’t ask, don’t tell” (77 percent in
polls) finally convinced resistant Republicans to take action in December 2010 after blocking this measure
all year. In many ways, public opinion is shaped by the very policymakers who must then respond to it.
I.
Defining Public Opinion
Public opinion is the aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of the adult
population. It determines how divided the public is on any given issue and whether compromise is
possible. When the citizenry largely agrees on an issue, there is consensus (see Figure 6-2). When it is
polarized between two distinct positions, there is divided opinion (see Figure 6-1). When a “private”
opinion about a political or social issue is publicly expressed, or when it is so strong it leads to action,
it has become a “public” opinion.
II. How Public Opinion Is Formed: Political Socialization
Views expressed as political opinions are shaped and formed through political socialization, the
process by which individuals acquire political beliefs and values from others.
A. Models of Political Socialization. The interactions among individuals have a major impact on
the formation of their political opinions. Families and schools are the most common sources of
political socialization.
B. The Family and the Social Environment. If family members have strong political views,
children pick up on this form of socialization. If family members are disinterested or
independent of party influence, children experience little socialization. On the flip side, when
children share new political ideas from school or the media, they give parents a “second
chance” at political socialization.
1.
Education as a Source of Political Socialization. Education introduces individuals to ideas
outside of the home and local community, which may influence them to accept opinions
different from those of their families. Higher education is generally connected with greater
political participation.
2.
Peers and Peer Group Influence. As people interact with peer groups (others sharing
similar social characteristics in school, work, or recreational activities), various values
come into play and have an impact on their opinion formation. Examples: groups based
on ethnic identity, labor unions.
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3.
Opinion Leaders’ Influence. Opinion leaders strongly shape the beliefs and feelings of the
public because of their position, expertise, or personality. “Formal“ opinion leaders—
public officials, lobbyists, journalists, religious leaders—make a conscious effort to
influence public opinion as part of their jobs “Informal” leaders—close associates held in
high regard—influence political attitudes of those around them, though not always
intentionally.
C. The Impact of the Media. The media significantly influence political opinion because they
inform the public about topics and events. They select what is important and decide how to
present it, thereby creating an agenda-setting effect.
1.
Popularity of the Media. Many analysts and pollsters find that the influence of media has
now grown equal to that of family. This trend may impact future public debate.
2.
The Impact of the New Media. Political commentary by the media is not new. For decades,
the FCC enforced the Fairness Doctrine, requiring radio and TV to present controversial
issues in a balanced way. Today’s new media forms—talk radio, cable news, blogs—may
not be as balanced. They often strengthen the beliefs of their viewers rather than change
them, thus contributing to the polarization permeating American politics today. Social
networking sites, however, often revolve around peer group interactions rather than
narrow viewpoints, so they may have a moderating political influence.
D. The Influence of Political Events. Older individuals tend to be more conservative, often due to
long-held values and the influence of marriage and children. More than age, momentous
political events have a long-lasting influence on shaping political attitudes, called the
generational effect (or “cohort effect”). Examples: voters growing up during the Great
Depression, WWII, Vietnam, or the Watergate break-in and its high-level cover-up leading to
widespread cynicism toward government.
E. The Influence of Demographic Factors. Demographic traits exert a major influence on party
preferences and political ideologies (see Table 6-1).
1.
Education. In the past, having a college degree was linked to voting for Republicans. This
has changed. Professionals (physicians, attorneys, professors) and others with
postgraduate degrees are increasingly voting for Democrats. And in the last three
presidential elections, an increased percentage of those with only a high school education
voted Republican.
2.
Economic Status. On economic policies, those with less income tend to favor liberal
initiatives and government action, while those with higher incomes tend to favor
conservative policies and less intervention. But on cultural issues, the reverse tends to be
true. Still, wealthier individuals and small business owners tend to vote Republican, while
laborers and union members tend to vote Democratic.
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3.
Religious Influence: Denomination. Analysts have traditionally broken down political
preferences based on religious denominations. But this has become less valuable in recent
years. Examples: Jewish individuals continue to vote more liberal, nonreligious persons
continue to be more liberal on social issues, but Catholics are no longer largely Democrats
and Protestants are no longer largely Republican, as seen in the past.
4.
Religious Influence: Commitment and Beliefs. Among the Christian denominations,
religion impacts political opinions based on two factors—the degree of religious
commitment (as seen in regular churchgoing), and the degree of “evangelical” or
“fundamentalist” religious belief. High levels in either area tend to be linked to cultural
conservatism, which places great value on social order. African Americans, who have
historically voted Democratic, are an exception to this trend.
5.
The Influence of Race and Ethnicity. African Americans have overwhelmingly identified
with the Democratic Party since 1930s New Deal policies. Asian Americans tend to support
the Democrats, but Vietnamese Americans are strongly Republican, likely due to strong
anticommunist feelings after the Vietnam War. American Muslims of Middle Eastern
descent voted Republican in 2000 in support of cultural conservatism, but had turned
largely Democratic by 2010, possibly due to civil liberties issues.
6.
The Hispanic Vote. Hispanic Americans generally favor Democratic candidates, though
Cuban Americans vote strongly Republican, probably in response to anticommunist
tendencies. While George W. Bush received a good portion of the Hispanic vote in 2000
and 2004, Democratic candidates received 73 percent of their vote by 2006, and Barack
Obama received more than two-thirds of their vote in 2008.
7.
The Gender Gap. By the 1980s, political analysts began to detect a gender gap, the
difference between the percentage of women and men who vote for a particular candidate.
Women tended to support Democratic candidates more often than men, though this trend
has decreased in recent years. However, women are still more likely than men to defend a
number of “liberal” policies—opposing capital punishment and military action abroad,
while supporting social welfare, environmental protection, and gay rights.
8.
Geographic Region. A person’s geographic location lives tends to influence his or her
political attitudes. Democrats tend to get support from the Northeast and the West Coast,
while Republicans do well in the South, the Great Plains, and the Rocky Mountain states.
Even more important is residence—urban areas tend to be strongly Democratic, while
rural areas and small communities tend to be Republican.
III. Measuring Public Opinion
One of the most common methods for gathering and measuring the feelings and beliefs of a
democratic population is the opinion poll.
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A. The History of Opinion Polls. Newspapers and magazines began to measure public opinion in
the 1880s. Literary Digest conducted opinion polls by mailing questionnaires to readers, then
predicting election results with 70 percent accuracy. But when Roosevelt won by a landslide in
1936, its poll had projected defeat, partly because its subscribers/respondents were much
wealthier than average Americans so its sample was not representative of the larger
population. George Gallup, Elmo Roper, and other newcomers in the 1930s did foresee
Roosevelt’s victory, however, using modern research techniques and creating respected survey
organizations that remain today.
B. Sampling Techniques. To get accurate results, the “sampling” (or “poll taking”) conducted
must be representative and based on “randomness.” Trying to interview every single eligible
person in a population is impractical. “Random sampling” gives every person an equal chance
of being selected, so those actually interviewed will represent the larger population. Example:
surveying residents at a random selection of telephone numbers from various geographic areas
and demographic segments. Well-known polling organizations rely on random sampling to
get a very high accuracy rate, usually with a margin of plus or minus 3 percent. “Quota
sampling,” however, involves finding certain types of people (based on demographics) and
interviewing them, creating a sample that may be nonrandom, inaccurate, and biased.
C. Problems with Polls. Election polls are essentially snapshots, only accurate at the time they are
conducted. If they involve a large number of undecided voters, they may not be able to
indicate who is truly leading, or who will win. If public opinion changes quickly, they will be
accurate for only a short time.
1.
Sampling Errors. The difference between the sample result and the true result (if the entire
population had been interviewed) is called sampling error. It occurs when samples are too
small or are biased.
2.
Poll Questions. The design and delivery of questions can affect the survey results. The way
questions are structured (yes/no answer formats are particularly problematic), the phrasing
and terminology they use, the order in which they are asked, the answer options given,
and the interactions with the interviewer can dramatically influence responses, and
therefore, results.
3.
Unscientific and Fraudulent Polls. Any survey with self-selected respondents should be
viewed with great skepticism. Publications, Web sites, even cable news shows regularly
solicit responses from readers/viewers and present results as if they were based on a
scientific sample, inviting others to publicize these inaccurate findings. Some unscientific
polls like this are designed to deliberately mislead the public.
IV. Public Opinion and the Political Process
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Virtually all politicians view public opinion as critical to their careers. It acts as a source of power in
negotiating with other leaders and candidates, and as a way to identify important issues and
concerns that shape campaigns.
A. Political Culture and Public Opinion. The “American political culture” is a set of shared
attitudes about the country, its government, and its beliefs—liberty, equality, property—often
depicted in symbols like the American flag. It is upheld by diverse groups, acting as a
foundation of support for political leaders as they deal with both routine matters and
emergency issues. It is also helps Americans evaluate their government. Their political trust,
the degree to which they express faith in political institutions, has been found to vary across
presidential administrations. It is often up during strong economies and down in tough times,
reaching a record low in October 2008 with the financial crisis.
B. Public Opinion about Institutions. The public has ambivalent feelings about national
institutions (see Table 6-2). The military has consistently gotten the strongest support (soaring
during the 2002-2003 war on terrorism). Religious institutions have ranked second (dipping in
2002 with news of sex-abuse scandals), followed by banks (dropping in 2009 with the financial
collapse). Congress, labor unions, and big business have not done as well. Sometimes popular
confidence rises or drops across the board, indicating widespread optimism or pessimism
regarding all government.
1.
The Most Important Problems. Despite their reservations, people expect the government to
solve the “most important problems” facing the country. The public’s identification of
these problems can shift abruptly and seem contradictory (see Table 6-3), though it is
usually based on immediate concerns. Examples: recent “top concerns” being the Iraq war,
the economy, and the unemployment rate.
2.
Public Opinion and Policymaking. Policymakers cannot be ruled by public opinion. They
must make choices and trade-offs, do some “horse trading,” and be keenly aware of all
possible consequences of any decision or action. They cannot satisfy every constituent, so
they must maximize public benefits within the limits of government authority and
spending.
V. The Media and Politics
The print media have historically informed the public debate and determined how news will be
reported. But television is the primary news source for the vast majority of Americans (more than 90
percent). The Internet is now second, with newspapers third. The media fulfill at least six functions in
the U.S., most with political implications.
A. Entertainment. The bulk of radio and television hours are, by far, devoted to entertaining the
audience and though not directly linked to politics, this subject matter can stimulate thought
and discussion. Recent trends involve politically oriented broadcasts.
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B. Reporting the News. The media generate the news, providing words, pictures, and opinions
about events, people, and ideas. The First Amendment allows for as free a flow as possible of
unbiased information to the public.
C. Identifying Public Problems. The media also identify key issues and reveal what the
government is doing, and ought to be doing, thereby setting the public agenda. Example:
media support for “Megan’s law” and public information on sex offenders. This investigative
reporting is accompanied by presentations of policy alternatives for solving such issues.
D. Socializing New Generations. By presenting the history, culture, diversity, and moral values of
America, the media teach young people and immigrants what it means to be American.
E. Providing a Political Forum. In an extension of the news function, the media allow politicians
and constituents to take part in public forums. Candidates and officeholders can showcase
their leadership abilities and platforms, and ordinary citizens can get involved through letters
to the editor, blog posts, and other channels.
F. Making Profits. Media profits come from advertising revenues, which are usually directly
related to circulation figures or viewer/listener ratings. This profit motive has been proven to
influence newsrooms operations (Pew Research Center study). However, some outlets are
“publicly owned” (public television and radio stations) and operate without the pressure of
advertisers. And profits have plummeted for major newspapers in recent years, partly due to
online services taking over classified ad markets.
VI. The Primacy of Television
Though the Internet has become more popular with young people, television is still the most
influential medium among the general public. Its news programming is also a big business.
A. The Increase in News-Type Programming. In 1963, the major networks devoted eleven minutes
a day to national news. By 2011, it was three hours a day. Cable news channels and Internet
sites have also dramatically increased the amount of news programming available to the
public.
B. Television’s Influence on the Political Process. By nature, television focuses on the visual but is
constrained by time limits, so news stories are often brief and superficial, based on sound bites
aiming at immediate impact on the viewer. The “drama” of long campaigns and daily
congressional activities is hard to portray without the mechanics of a “story line” or “plot.”
These constraints may actually influence certain political events by exaggerating their
importance.
VII. The Media and Political Campaigns
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All forms of the media have a significant political impact on American society, but political figures
often plan their public appearances and statements to specifically attract television coverage.
A. Political Advertising. Broadcast TV has increasingly profited from its fees for campaign
commercials. One of the most effective political spots in history was the “Daisy Girl” ad
supporting Lyndon Johnson in the 1964 presidential race against Barry Goldwater. It was
groundbreaking for its time, and it ushered in an era of negative advertising. The public claims
to dislike negative ads, but they work. However, they can backfire when the attacker is viewed
negatively by the public.
B. Management of News Coverage. TV spots are expensive, but coverage of a candidate by the
news media is free. To get a favorable and accurate message out, staffers plan around technical
aspects and deadlines, grant favors to networks, and stage interesting photogenic events.
Press advisers rely on spin to interpret political events as favorable to their candidate or
officeholder, acting as spin doctors who hope to convince reporters of their perspectives.
Example: spin on both sides during 2010 battle over passage of health-care reform.
C. Going for the Knockout Punch—Presidential Debates. Since the 1960 Kennedy-Nixon election
season, televised debates have influenced presidential campaigns. Incumbents are often
reluctant to appear, but challengers have much to gain by being represented as equals, and as
viable officeholders who look “presidential.” Though debates are meant to inform the public,
they are largely used to project image and they do affect election outcomes. Example: Barack
Obama’s increase in popularity with each 2008 debate.
D. Political Campaigns and the Internet. The Internet has become a major vehicle for managing
political ads, news stories, and campaign contributions. Example: Obama campaign’s recordbreaking online fund-raising operation in 2008, based on decentralization, volunteerism, and
social networking. Today virtually every candidate running for high-level office will hire an
“Internet campaign strategist” to manage sites, hire bloggers, and monitor online feedback. In
addition, major interest groups are creating independent political blogs to promote their
causes, often immediately prior to elections, at little or no cost.
E. Are Candidates Losing Control of Their Campaigns? The Internet is making it difficult, if not
impossible, for campaigns to manage their news coverage. Video clips of candidates’ bloopers
and offensive remarks are posted and accessed online with lightening speed. And “Netroots”
supporters may appear at odds with the candidate’s own agenda or ethics. Examples:
Obama’s outspoken pastor giving controversial sermons, McCain’s overzealous supporters
taking his allegations of Obama radicalism too far.
VIII. Government Regulation of the Media
The U.S. has a very free press compared to the rest of the world, but regulation of media does exist.
The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) regulates communications by radio, television,
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wire, and cable. In doing so, it created an environment in which the three major TV networks
dominated broadcasting.
A. Controlling Ownership of the Media. When Congress passed the Telecommunications Act in
1996, it not only freed telephone companies to enter other media markets, but also cleared the
way for large corporations (like Time Warner or Disney) to control media ownership. Many
media outlets are now owned by a corporate conglomerate, a single entity that may also own
newspapers, film companies, TV networks, production studios, and delivery systems for all
that content via cable, satellite, or the Internet.
B. Government Control of Content. Though the First Amendment appears to apply to all media,
the Supreme Court has been slow to extend free speech and free press guarantees to new
media as they have arrived on the scene. The Court took decades to grant free speech
protection to motion pictures, and it has never extended full protection to radio and television,
allowing the FCC to assess fines for indecency and profanity. One exception: its quick
extension of full protection to the Internet.
IX. Bias in the Media
Americans have long argued that the mainstream media has an ongoing bias, an inclination or
preference that interferes with impartial judgment. Many observers see a “liberal bias” stemming
from free-thinking reporters, while others perceive a “conservative bias” particularly evident in
economic and financial coverage. One analyst of TV news found that its “image bites” (as opposed to
“sound bites”) favored Republicans. The rise of the blogosphere and other online outlets has
complicated the issue of media bias, with neither ideology dominating.
A. Other Theories of Media Bias. Some say the mainstream media are biased in favor of drama and
conflict, while others claim they are biased against “losers” like candidates falling behind in
races. This “loser theory” was supported by the Center for Media and Public Affairs in its
findings on media coverage of 2008 presidential candidates as their poll ratings rose and fell.
B. A Scientific Test for Bias? Communications professor Tim Groeling has examined how ABC,
CBS, NBC, and FOX News reported public opinion polls that assessed the job performance of
two presidents. He found that ABC, CBS, and NBC gave Bill Clinton more favorable coverage
and FOX gave George W. Bush more favorable coverage.
X. Features
A. At Issue: Do We Really Need Newspapers? Big city newspapers in Philadelphia, Chicago, and
Minneapolis have filed for bankruptcy protection and others have folded completely. Since
1994, the percentage of Americans who say they read a daily newspaper has dropped from 60
to 30 percent. If newspapers were to vanish, online news sites and blogs, as well as cable news
networks, would probably gain more followers. But the quality of news gathering would also
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suffer, as much of the truly useful information on TV and the Web comes, directly or
indirectly, from professional journalists who have done their homework and checked their
facts.
B. Making a Difference: Being a Critical Consumer of the News. Critics of the media argue that a
substantial amount of the “news” that we read, see, and access—in print media, on television,
and on the Internet—is colored by the subjectivity of editors and bloggers or by the race for
profits. It takes some effort to become a critical consumer of the news, to avoid being swayed
by subtle appeals, loaded terms, and outright bias. It involves developing an objective sense,
looking at the news presentations from different viewpoints, and comparing the way stories
are covered by various media outlets.
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