Hot Data Points
ASA Leadership Meeting
May 2015
Participants:
Gail O’Kane, CAO at MCTC
Tom Williamson, Director of Academic Operations at MCTC
Tabatha Miller, Research Analyst at MCTC
Craig Schoenecker, Director of Research at System Office
John Asmussen, Asmussen Research
David Jones, MSU Mankato
Peter Weilinski, Minnesota State Community and Technical College
Student Enrollment/Success
Which Prospects Convert?
•50% of applicants enroll
•Math and (especially) Reading placements
predict conversion
- MCTC IR
Low-Income Students Are Now “Overrepresented”
*could be due to change in
Pell eligibility standards
SOURCE: MCTC IR
Transfer Students Are Much More College Ready
• 28% of Transfer Students were
College Ready
• 6% of First Time were College
Ready
SOURCE: Asmussen Rearch
High school class rank better predictor of course
completion than Accuplacer
• 90% of students in top quartile of their high school class completed
2/3 of their first-term courses at MnSCU 2-year Colleges (compared to
45% of students in the bottom quartile).*
* preliminary results
SOURCE: Asmussen Research
Many “Full-Time” Students Are Part-Time Students
(First-Time Students-excluding ELL, MCTC, Fall 2005-2007)
347
15% Left without earning a credit!
ONLY 52% of FT/FT students (our IPEDS
cohort) were actually full-time
SOURCE: Asmussen Research
Earned 0 credits
Getting Off to a Good Start Is Critical
• 71% of students who complete 67% of their first-term credits end up
graduating, retained, or transferred compared to 15% of those who
don’t -- regardless of placement level and credit load
• English is a gateway to an associate’s degree. Students who complete
college English have a success rate of 70%, compared to 30% for
those who don’t.
o Takeaway: One key approach closing completion gap – close course success
gaps in gateway English courses
SOURCE: Asmussen Research
Continuously enrolled students outperform stop-outs
at all departure points
Success includes graduation with any credential or transfer after making satisfactory academic progress.
SOURCE: Asmussen Research
On average student earn 12 unproductive credits on
their way to an Associate’s degree
SOURCE: MCTC IR
Prerequisite decisions as a social justice issue
% of Black/African American new students placing into lowest levels of
Math
• 72% of males
• 85% of females
SOURCE: Asmussen Research
Predictive Analytics in Action: MSU Mankato
Impact on Persistence by Model Variable
# of
Persistence
students at Rate of atrisk for this
risk
variable
students
Model Variable
Risk Category
Risk Threshold
Percent of Need Met
(Optimal Binning)
Financial Needs
Less than 80% of need
being met.
757
58.3%
Total Financial Aid
Financial Needs
Package (Optimal Binning)
Total financial aid package
of $5,466.50 and below.
1292
67.7%
No. of Days as Applicant
(Optimal Binning)
Educational Aspiration
Within 251 days of
enrollment.
1626
69.9%
In-State Tuition Eligibility
Flag
Financial Needs
Values of 0
750
68.1%
Initial Source Code
Institutional
1710
71.6%
Subdivision or College
Educational Aspiration
1024
71.2%
Expected Family
Contribution > 0 Flag
Financial Needs
441
69.8%
Categories with
persistence rates below
Categories with
persistence rates below
Values of 0
- David P. Jones (Vice
President for Student Affairs
& Enrollment Management)
Predictive Analytics in Action: MSU Mankato
Risk Factor Analysis
# of Risk
Factors
Count
# Persist
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
846
1406
1320
708
284
49
7
1
747
1164
960
462
162
19
2
0
Model Score
0.00-0.09
0.10-0.19
0.20-0.29
0.30-0.39
0.40-0.49
0.50-0.59
0.60-0.69
0.70-0.79
0.80-0.89
0.90-1.00
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
454
384
7
0
1
0
0
0
0
212
521
623
50
0
0
Persistence Avg. Model
Rate
Score
88.3%
82.8%
72.7%
65.3%
57.0%
38.8%
28.6%
0.0%
2
0
0
10
294
520
467
29
0
0
0
0.69
0.58
0.46
0.35
0.23
0.17
0.12
0.08
# of Risk Factors
3
4
0
0
8
85
187
158
306
41
194
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
1
34
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
2
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Avg. # of Risk
Factors
6.0
4.3
3.5
2.6
2.0
1.5
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
- David P. Jones (Vice
President for Student Affairs
& Enrollment Management)
Financial Issues – Students
and Institutions
MCTC
1% increase of course saturation (fill rate) in lower division and
developmental courses yields an additional $360,000 per fiscal
year in revenue
MnSCU
1% increase of course saturation (fill rate) in lower division and
developmental courses could yield approximately $12.5 million
per fiscal year in additional revenue for MnSCU institutions
SOURCE: MCTC Academic Operations
Vermont
Colorado
Tennessee
Washington
Arizona
Hawaii
Idaho
Missouri
Texas
Oklahoma
New Mexico
Michigan
Florida
Nevada
MnSCU
South Carolina
Virginia
California
North Carolina
Maine
Mississippi
Arkansas
Utah
Georgia
Wisconsin
Louisiana
Indiana
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Kentucky
Ohio
Oregon
Massachusetts
Illinois
West Virginia
Pennsylvania
Montana
North Dakota
Alabama
Rhode Island
Wyoming
Iowa
New Jersey
Maryland
Connecticut
Delaware
Alaska
New Hampshire
New York
District of Columbia
Administrative spending per fye
MnSCU is ranked 38th out of 51 states and DC in administrative spending
per FYE
$4,000
$3,500
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
19
One in 3 MnSCU graduates attend more than one college or university
70%
60%
49.0%
50%
48.0%
44.0%
39.0%
40%
30%
34.0%
34.0%
28.0%
25.0%
22.0%
20%
10%
0%
Certificate
Diploma
Associate
Colleges
Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs
20
Bachelors
Universities
Graduate
All
State support per FYE has begun to improve in constant
dollars
… but is still 32% below 2002 levels
$6,000
$5,000
$4,766
$4,368
$3,994
$4,000
$3,980
$3,863
$3,924
$3,000
$3,715
$3,079 $3,247
$3,847
$3,261
$3,070
$2,787 $2,813
$2,000
$1,000
$2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
est est
Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs
21
Students now paying 56% of college costs vs. 34% in
FY02
100%
60%
58%
56%
40%
42%
44%
50%
50%
60%
49%
51%
40%
50%
50%
57%
47%
53%
43%
48%
52%
55%
45%
55%
70%
45%
40%
60%
80%
34%
90%
60%
50%
30%
20%
66%
40%
10%
0%
FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015*
Appropriation
Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs
Tuition
22
Tuition & Fees as % of Median Income
Affordability: Tuition & fees as a percent of median
income
40%
33.2%
30%
27.7%
28.0%
28.9%
34.4%
36.9%
35.5%
35.0%
14.3%
14.4%
15.0%
29.1%
20%
10.7% 10.9%
10%
11.2%
11.6%
12.8%
13.6%
6.4%
6.4%
6.7%
6.8%
7.3%
7.5%
7.7%
7.7%
8.1%
4.9%
4.9%
5.1%
5.1%
5.4%
5.6%
5.7%
5.7%
5.9%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0%
2005
37.0%
14.8%
8.0%
5.8%
2014
State Colleges
State Universities
University of Minnesota
Private Colleges and Universities
Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs
More MnSCU students are eligible for and are receiving financial aid
70%
61.6%62.0%
60%
54.2%
52.8%
50%
45.7%
42.2%
40%
42.1%41.5%
35.5%
33.7%
34.0%33.7%
30%
20%
8.9%
10%
9.9%
8.9% 8.9%
4.3% 4.2% 3.8% 3.7%
0%
Any Aid
2005
Grants
2008
Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs
24
Scholarships
2011
Loans
2014
Work Study
MnSCU students are receiving increasing amounts of financial aid
$9,000
$7,952
$7,782
$7,126 $7,254
$6,000
$6,087
$5,802
$5,226
$5,066
$3,669 $3,679
$2,989
$3,000
$2,529
$1,872
$1,677 $1,761
$1,463
$1,302
$2,438
$2,238
$1,983
$0
Any Aid
2005
Grants
2008
Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs
25
Scholarships
2011
Loans
2014
Work Study
Student Loan Debt at Graduation Varies Greatly by Award
(FY 2014 Graduates)
MnSCU
% with
No Debt
MnSCU
% with
Debt
Median Debt
for those
with Debt
Median Debt
for all
Graduates
Certificates
46.4%
53.6%
$11,028
$2,778
Associates Degrees
34.3%
65.7%
$15,940
$8,777
Baccalaureate
Degree
26.3%
73.7%
$26,057
$19,064
Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs
26
Private institution graduates have more student loan debt
Percent of Graduates With Student Loan Debt
Median Student Loan Debt at Graduation
100%
$50,000
93.0%
$46,573
88.0%
75%
66.0%
$40,000
73.0%
66.0%
Percent of FYE in Dev Courses
Percent Students Taking Dev Courses
78.0%
69.0%
50%
25%
$24,702
$20,000
$27,632
$25,424
$25,080
$15,850
$10,000
$0
0%
Associate Degree
MnSCU
Bachelor's Degree
U of MN
Source: System Office Research – Academic and Student Affairs
27
$29,667
$30,000
Private Non-Profit
Associate Degree
Bachelor's Degree
Private For-Profit
Student borrowing has outpaced cost of attendance
• Fin Aid/FYE:
47.1%
11.7%
• Student cost/FYE:
• Borrowing has led to ~doubling of default rates
2008 Cohort
2009 Cohort
2010 Cohort
7.8%
12.1%
14.1%
*data from http://www2.ed.gov/offices/OSFAP/defaultmanagement/cdr2yr.html
SOURCE: MCTC Finance Division
Using Data to Target
Marketing
Using Data to Target Marketing Efforts
SOURCE: Peter Weilinski, Minnesota State Community and
Technical College
Using Data to Target Marketing Efforts
Career Coach Source
Career WagesJob Openings Outlook
Growth
Percentage
Retirement
65+
3-Year
Placement
Average
Involvement
Ranking
Average
Fall2Spring
Fall2Fall
Academic Performance Graduation Rate
Placement Rate
OO
OO
OK
OO
na
Accounting, Accounting Clerk
$9.85
45
47
4.10%
182
46%n/a
WAGE OK
JOB OPENINGS OK
IN
OK
OO
OK
OK
OO
Accounting, Accounting Clerk
$9.85
45
47
4.10%
182
46%n/a
WAGE OK
JOB OPENINGS OK
IN
OK
OK
OK
na
na
Secretary and Administrative Assistant
$10.40
29
30
2.80%
106
83%
3.5WAGE OK
OO
OK
OK
OK
OO
Architechtural Drafter
$14.43
1
1
-2.30%
0
61%
4.5WAGE OK
OK
OO
OK
OK
OO
Master Mechanic - Automotive
$9.16
24
24
0%
33
93%
4
OK
OO
OO
OO
OO
Automotive Body and Related Repair
$9.99
8
8
5.40%
7
73%
2WAGE OK
OK
OO
OK
OO
OO
67%
4WAGE OK
OO
OO
OO
OO
OO
4WAGE OK
OO
OO
OO
OO
OO
OO
OO
OO
OO
OK
OO
OO
OO
OK
OO
n/a
General Operations Manager
Teacher Assistant
Network and Computer Systems Administrator
n/an/a
#VALUE!
n/a
n/a
$18.54
33
34
2.80%
48
75%
$8.85
55
56
1.70%
89
75%
3.5
$26.81
6
7
9.60%
0
79%
3.5WAGE OK
SOURCE: Peter Weilinski, Minnesota State Community and Technical College
#VALUE!
JOB OPENINGS OK
#VALUE!
What are your hot data points?