North Central Region Community Economics

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Community Development

Core Competencies for

Extension Professionals in the North Central Region

Foundations of Practice

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2

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

The Foundations of Practice: Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension Professionals is composed of three major components:

• Understanding Communities and their Dynamics

• Developing Successful Community Initiatives

• Areas of Specialization and Emphasis

Understanding Communities and their Dynamics

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Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Basic Understanding of Community

Community Demographics

Community Economics

Community Power Structure

Natural Resources and Sustainability

Community Situational Analysis

Community Development Process

Community Development

Core Competencies for

Extension Professionals in the North Central region

Community Economics

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5

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Community Economics

This presentation has been adapted from an original presentation developed by

Bill Pinkovitz

Professor

University of Wisconsin Extension

Center for Community Economic Development

Learning Objectives

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6

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

• Define local economy and learn how money and resources flow into and out of a community, and circulates within a community.

• Learn the meaning, and importance of a community’s economic base and and how to identify and analyze basic industries.

Learning Objectives

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7

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

• Learn how to use traditional economic analysis tools to gain insights into local economies

• Learn new innovative ways to use existing data sources to analyze local economies from a different perspective.

• Learn how to access and use new powerful web based tool to analyze local economies

A Few Definitions

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8 com.mu.ni.ty a group of people in a physical setting with geographic, political, social, and economic boundaries, and with discernable communication linkages.

Shaffer, et al

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region e.con.o.my A system of human activity directed toward meeting human needs and wants by the deliberate allocation of scare resources (land, labor, raw materials, and capital).

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9

A Few Definitions

e.con.o.mic growth more jobs, more income, more sales, more customers.

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region e.con.o.mic de.vel.op.ment social, environmental, and economic change to enhance quality of life

Shaffer, et al

Some Perspective

Employment

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Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

120,000,000

100,000,000

80,000,000

60,000,000

40,000,000

20,000,000

0 goods producing service producing public sector

1955

2004

Some Perspective

Income

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11

Retirement

5.1%

Public Assistance

0.2%

Social Security

5.1%

SSI

0.5%

Dividends, Interest, Rent

6.8%

Other

1.9%

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Self Employment

5.9%

Wage & Salary

74.6%

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The Local Economy

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Land

Local Consumption

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13

Dollars flow into and out of the local economy:

$ $

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

$ $

Land

Local Consumption

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14

Dollars flow into the local economy in several ways:

$ $

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Local goods and services sold outside community

Raw Materials

Manufactured Goods

Labor

Insurance

Transportation

Financial Services

Capital

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15

Dollars flow into the local economy in several ways:

$ $

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Local goods and services sold outside community

Visitors purchasing Local goods and services

Tourists

Regional Mall

University

Health Care

Second Homes

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16

Dollars flow into the local economy in several ways:

$ $

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Local goods and services sold outside community

Visitors purchasing Local goods and services

Public dollars flowing into community AND other “non-earned income”

Social Security

Gov. Purchases

Federal Grants

Government Offices

Military Bases

Dividends

Interest

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17

Dollars leak out of the local economy in several ways:

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Local businesses purchasing goods and services outside the community

$ $

Raw Materials

Inventory

Equipment

Labor

Capital

Professional Services

Financing

Investments

Dollars leak out of the local economy in several ways:

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18

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Local businesses purchasing goods and services outside the community

Local consumers purchasing goods and services outside the community

Regional Malls

Internet Sales

Travel

Transportation

Financial Services

Investments/Savings

$ $

Dollars leak out of the local economy in several ways:

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19

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Local businesses purchasing goods and services outside the community

Local businesses purchasing goods and services outside the community

Taxes and Social

Security Payments

Federal/State Taxes

Soc.Security Payments

$ $

Dollars leak out of the local economy in several ways:

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20

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Local businesses purchasing goods and services outside the community

Local businesses purchasing goods and services outside the community

Taxes and Social Security

Payments

Waste/Inefficiencies

Natural Resources

Inefficiencies

Opportunity Costs

$ $

How Does the Local

Economy Grow?

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Increase INFLOWS

Decrease OUTFLOWS

Increase the TRADE AREA

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Strategies to Grow the Economy

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Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Attract new basic employers

Improve the efficiency of existing firms

Improve ability to capture dollars

Encourage business formation

Increase aids from broader governments

Glen Pulver

Basic Employers

a.k.a Export Employers

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A basic employer is a business that brings money into the community. Businesses that sell most of their goods/services to non-local markets. A business where the inflow of dollars into the community exceeds the outflow of dollars from the community. Typically, basic employers include:

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Manufacturing

Farming

Mining

Tourism

Universities/Colleges

Hospitals

Insurance Companies

Transportation

Non-Export Businesses

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Businesses that primarily serve the needs of the local consumers are called non-export businesses.

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Why the FOCUS on Export Businesses?

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Basic (Export) businesses provide the best opportunity to create additional jobs and income in a community.

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Unless a community is growing rapidly, or its trade area is expanding significantly, increasing the number of non-export businesses simply means that the pie

(market) will be cut into smaller slices, or existing businesses will disappear as new ones emerge.

Community Economic

Analysis

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Defining a Community’s Trade Areas

Identifying Export Businesses in a Community

Identifying the Competitive Sectors in a Community

Estimating the Total Impact of Economic Activities

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Community Economic

Analysis

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Defining a Community’s Trade Areas

Identifying Export Businesses in a Community

Identifying the Competitive Sectors in a Community

Estimating the Total Impact of Economic Activities

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Defining Trade Areas:

Traditional Methods

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Reilly’s Law : Method for determining a community’s retail trade area.

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Based on the premises that

1) People are attracted to larger communities to shop.

2) Peoples willingness to travel to shop is influenced by time and distance.

Defining Trade Areas:

Traditional Methods

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Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Trade Area Capture : A method for estimating the number of customer equivalents who shopped in community for a specific product type (i.e. furniture).

• Based on state per capita spending for the product adjusted by local per capita income.

• Most often utilizes Census of Retail Trade data.

• Most useful when comparing TAC over time.

Defining Trade Areas:

Traditional Methods

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Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Pull Factors: A method for estimating the number of customers a community attracts from outside the community for a specific product or service (i.e. furniture).

• Simply estimated by dividing the Trade Area Capture by the municipal population.

• Most often utilizes Census of Retail Trade data.

• Most useful when comparing Pull Factors over time

Defining Trade Areas:

Using GIS

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Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Trade Area Analyst LT: An easy-to-use application utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software that enables users to easily map variety of markets by ZIP Code.

• Customers

• Employees

• Patients

• Visitors

Community Economic

Analysis

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Defining a Community’s Trade Areas

Identifying Export Businesses in a Community

Identifying the Competitive Sectors in a Community

Estimating the Total Impact of Economic Activities

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Identifying Export

Businesses

Location Quotients

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Location Quotient: A simple index that helps identify export and import industries by comparing the percentage of local employment in a specific industry to the percentage employed nationally in the same industry

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

LQ =

% of local employment in industry A

% of national employment in industry A

Location Quotient

Employment by Sector

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Total Employees (2004)

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

U.S.

Indiana Allen Co, In

Total Employment 108,490,066 2,451,737 160,610

Manufacturing

Construction

Retail

14,257,380 571,481

6,916,398 147,890

15,060,686 332,900

29,504

9,980

20,163 http://www.BLS.gov

Employment by Sector

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35

Percentage of Total Employment (2004)

SECTOR U.S.

Indiana Allen Co, In

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Manufacturing

Construction

Retail

LQ =

13.1%

6.4

13.9

18.4%

13.1%

= 1.40

23.3%

6.0

13.6

18.4%

6.2

12.6

Source: BLS.gov

Location Quotient

by Sector

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36

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

SECTOR

Manufacturing

Construction

Retail

U.S.

1.0

1.0

1.0

Indiana

1.77

0.95

0.98

Allen Co, In

1.40

0.97

0.90

Source: BLS.gov

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37

Location Quotients

Manufacturing Employment (2004)

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

County

Allen Co, Indiana

Daviess Co, Indiana

Elkhart Co, Indiana

U.S.

% of Total

Employment

18.37%

23.96

54.55

13.14

Location

Quotient

1.40

1.82

4.15

1.00

Source: BLS.gov

Interpreting LQs

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38

LQ > 1.25

LQ < .75

Export Industry

Import Industry

LQ > .75 and < 1.25

Self Sufficiency

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Location Quotients

A simple tool to help identify local:

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Export and import industries

Existing and potential industry clusters

Economic strengths

Development prospects

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

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Calculating LQs

The Good News

U.S Department of Labor

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region http://www.bls.gov

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http://www/bls.gov

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

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Location Quotients

http://www.seta.iastate.edu/takecharge /

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Take Charge

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Location Quotients

http://www.seta.iastate.edu/takecharge /

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Community Economic

Analysis

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Defining a Community’s Trade Areas

Identifying Export Businesses in a Community

Identifying the Competitive Sectors in a Community

Estimating the Total Impact of Economic Activities

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Why employment changes

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Growth or decline in the national economy

Growth or decline in the industry sector

Relative strength of the local industry/economy

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Shift Share Analysis

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Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Shift Share Analysis provides an estimate of the impact of these three factors by separating the increase or decrease in local employment in specific industry sectors into three components:

1. National Growth Share

2. Industrial Mix Share

3. Local Share

Shift Share Analysis

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47

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

National Growth Share: The increase or decrease in local employment that is attributable to the growth or decline in the national economy .

Industrial Mix Share: The increase or decrease in local employment that is attributable to the growth or decline in a specific industry sector .

Local Share: The increase or decrease in local employment that is attributable to the relative strength or weakness of the local industry/economy .

National Growth Share

Employment Trends by Industrial Sector

LaGrange County, IN (1994 to 2004)

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Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Sector

Manufacturing

Construction

Leisure/Hospitality

Financial Activities

Public Administration

Educ./Health

Services

Total Employment

Employment

(1994)

5,488

302

737

305

11

1,556

Employment

(2004)

5,841

441

924

264

8

1,645

Change % Change

353

139

187

-41

-3

89

6.4%

46

25.4

-13.4

-27.3

5.7

10,687 11,978 966 9.04

local employment in industry A year 1 x average national total employment growth rate for the period = National Growth Share

302 jobs x

National Growth Share

% Change in Employment by Industrial Sector

LaGrange County, IN (1994 to 2004)

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Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Sector

Manufacturing

Construction

Leisure/Hospitality

Financial Activities

Public Administration

Educ/Health Services

Total Employment

LaGrange Co.

6.4%

46

25.4

-13.4

-27.3

5.7

9.04

Indiana

-9.1%

10.9

20.4

2.2

6.9

19.7

7.89

U.S.

-16.1%

37.8

25.4

16.3

8.6

25.2

14.9

local employment in industry A year 1 x average national total

employment growth rate for the period = National Growth Share

302 jobs x .149

= 45 jobs

Industry Mix Share

% Change in Employment by Industrial Sector

LaGrange County, IN (1994 to 2004)

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50

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Sector

Manufacturing

Construction

Leisure/Hospitality

Financial Activities

Public Administration

Educ/Health Services

Total Employment

LaGrange

County

6.4%

46

25.4

-13.4

-27.3

5.7

9.04

Indiana

-9.1%

10.9

20.4

2.2

6.9

19.7

7.89

U.S.

-16.1%

37.8

25.4

16.3

8.6

25.2

14.9

local employment in industry A in year 1 x (national industry growth rate

– national average growth rate) = Industry Mix Share

302 x (.378 - .149) = 302 x .229 = 69 jobs

Local Share

% Change in Employment by Industrial Sector

LaGrange County, IN (1994 to 2004)

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Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Sector

Manufacturing

Construction

Leisure/Hospitality

Financial Activities

LaGrange

County

6.4%

46

25.4

-13.4

Indiana

-9.1%

10.9

20.4

2.2

U.S.

-16.1

37.8

25.4

16.3

Public Administration -27.3

6.9

8.6

Educ/Health Services 5.7 19.7

25.2

Total Employment 9.04

7.89

14.9

local employment in industry A in year 1 x (local industry growth rate

– national industry growth rate) = Local Share

302 x (.460 - .378) = 302 x 0.082 = 25 jobs

Employment Trends by Industrial Sector

LaGrange County, IN (1994 to 2004)

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Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Sector

Manufacturing

Construction

Leisure/Hospitality

Financial Activities

Public Administration

Educ./Health

Services

Total Employment

Employment

(1994)

5,488

302

737

305

11

1,556

10,687

Employment

(2004)

5,841

441

924

264

8

1,645

Change % Change

353

139

187

-41

-3

89

6.4%

46

25.4

-13.4

-27.3

5.7

11,978 966

45 jobs (NGS) + 69 jobs (IMS) + 25 jobs (LS) = 139 jobs

9.04

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Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Tippecanoe County, Indiana http://www.seta.iastate.edu/takecharge/

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Shift Share

http://www.rcr.uga.edu/guide/sshare1.html

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Caveats

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Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Shift Share is:

• Descriptive, not diagnostic

 Does not tell you WHY

 Does not identify comparative advantages

• Minimizes the impact of business cycles

Multiplier Effect

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Q: Why is the arrival of a new business or the expansion of an existing business a welcome event in most communities?

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

A: Jobs and Income

Multiplier Effect

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57

More GOOD NEWS: A new export business or business expansion usually creates more jobs and generates more additional spending and income than the jobs, spending, and wages directly attributable to the business.

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

This is called the Multiplier Effect

Multiplier Effect

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Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

The Multiplier Effect is comprised of three components:

1. Direct Effects: Labor, goods and services purchased by the business

2. Indirect Effects: Increase in local spending by firms that supply the business

3. Induced Effects: Increase in local spending by employees of the business

Total Impact = Direct + Indirect + Induced

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59

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Multiplier Effect

• Output Multiplier Total increase in local spending that occurs to produce one dollar of output.

• Employment Multiplier Total increase in local employment (direct, indirect, and induced) that results from each additional employee at the firm.

Income Multiplier Total increase in local income related to each dollar paid in wages, salaries, and profits to local employees and owners of the firm.

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60

Multiplier Effect

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Source: Western Rural Development Center

Multiplier Effect

Which has the larger multiplier?

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Wal-Mart Supercenter with annual sales of $81 million that employs 400 people

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

A cheese factory that employs 10 people and has annual sales of $20 million

Multiplier Effect

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Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

What does Wal-Mart buy locally?

• Inventory

• Labor

• Transportation

• Supplies

• Utilities

• Accounting services

• Marketing

• Financing

• Repairs

• Maintenance

• Legal Services

Multiplier Effect

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Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

What does a cheese factory buy locally?

• Raw Materials

• Labor

• Inventory

• Transportation

• Supplies

• Utilities

• Marketing

• Accounting services

• Legal Services

• Financing

• Repairs

• Maintenance

Multiplier Effect

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64

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

What do cheese factory suppliers buy locally?

• Raw Materials

• Labor

• Inventory

• Transportation

• Supplies

• Utilities

• Marketing

• Accounting services

• Legal Services

• Financing

• Repairs

• Maintenance

Multiplier Effect

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65

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

What do Wal-Mart suppliers buy locally?

• Raw Materials

• Labor

• Inventory

• Transportation

• Supplies

• Utilities

• Marketing

• Accounting services

• Legal Services

• Financing

• Repairs

• Maintenance

Worker Flow

Where people live and work

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66

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Live in: Work in:

Tippecanoe, IN Tippecanoe, IN

White, IN

Benton, IN

Warren, IN

Fountain, IN

Montgomery, IN

Boone, IN

Source: U.S.

Census Bureau

Clinton, IN

Carroll, IN

Elsewhere

Grand Total

Workers

67,731

495

256

64

140

355

135

724

409

3,036

73,345

67,731

÷ 73,345

= 92.35%

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67

Labor Participation

http://www.uwex.edu/ces/cced/indicate.html

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

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68

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

Bibliography

Community Economic Analysis: A How to Manual, Hustedde,

Shaffer, and Pulver, http://www.ncrcrd.iastate.edu/pubs/contents/186.htm

Using Employment Data to Better Understand Your Local

Economy, Martin Shields, http://cecd.aers.psu.edu/pubs/using_employment_ data_to_better.htm

SETA Office of Social and Economic Trend Analysis , Iowa

State, http://www.seta.iastate.edu/

Location Quotient Calculator , Bureau of Labor Statistics http://data.bls.gov/LOCATION_QUOTIENT/servlet/lqc.ControllerSe

rvlet

Shift Share Calculator , University of Georgia, http://www.rcr.uga.edu/guide/sshare1.html

Next Session

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69

Community Power Structure

March 2, 2006

1:30 to 3 p.m.

Community Development

Core Competencies for Extension

Professionals in the

North Central Region

The ability to identify who the decision makers are in the community, the resources they affect, and the power structure is crucial in gaining access to a community, gaining trust and credibility, and being effective in educational programs.

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