AN EXAMINATION OF OFFENDERS RELEASED FROM STATE PRISON IN THE FIRST YEAR OF PUBLIC SAFETY REALIGNMENT Kevin Grassel March 20, 2014 PUBLIC SAFETY REALIGNMENT ACT 2011 • Realignment redirected: non-serious, non-violent, non-sex registrant (non-non-non) offenders from State to local jurisdictions • Intended to reserve State prison for those with serious or violent charges (current or prior), sex registrants, and a few other offense types (e.g., battery against a juror, sale of a person for immoral purposes) THIS PRESENTATION • CDCR now has two full years of data to evaluate how offenders released from prison after October 1, 2011, fared on parole and local post-release community supervision • This report evaluates the impact of Realignment by comparing the rates of arrest, conviction, and returns to prison of those released after completing their State prison term in the first year of Realignment with those released one year earlier METHODOLOGY To evaluate the impact of Realignment, two groups were created: 1) a pre-Realignment release cohort that includes all offenders paroled from a CDCR State prison between October 1, 2010, and September 30, 2011 2) a post-Realignment release cohort that includes all offenders paroled or discharged to PRCS from a CDCR State prison between October 1, 2011, and September 30, 2012 METHODOLOGY CONTINUED… • • • An arrest is defined as the first felony, misdemeanor, or supervision violation offense occurring within State of CA A conviction is defined as the first felony or misdemeanor conviction within State of CA, regardless of whether the conviction resulted in incarceration A return-to-custody is defined as a return to a CDCR facility or CDCR contracted facility METHODOLOGY CONTINUED… = Number Returned ÷ Recidivism Cohort X 100 Pre- and Post-Realignment One-Year Arrest Rates 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 64.3% 62.5% 63.2% 60.7% 63.2% 61.7% 59.8% 58.8% 59.4% 56.3% 59.4% 56.9% 54.7% 54.0% 52.7% 51.8% 54.9% 52.1% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Pre-Realignment Post-Realignment 53.6% 51.7% 52.0% 51.1% 51.5% 50.5% ARREST TYPES 100% 90% 80% 35.0% 39.8% 70% 60% 22.2% 50% 23.3% 40% 30% 20% 42.9% 36.9% 10% 0% Pre-Realignment Felony Post-Realignment Misdemeanor Supervision Violation Number of Arrests Per Person Released 1.80 1.64 1.65 1.61 1.60 1.40 1.40 1.20 1.34 1.28 1.25 1.25 1.29 1.24 1.22 1.21 1.21 1.10 1.12 1.13 May June July 1.18 1.21 1.23 1.17 1.16 1.14 1.00 1.09 1.08 August September 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 October November December January February March Pre-Realignment April Post-Realignment Number of Times Offenders Were Arrested Pre-Realignment Count of Arrest Cycles N % Post-Realignment N % Total 90,514 100.0% 58,746 100.0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6+ 37,614 25,213 13,942 7,300 3,467 1,594 1,384 41.6% 27.9% 15.4% 8.1% 3.8% 1.8% 1.5% 25,738 12,591 8,309 5,013 3,002 1,691 2,402 43.8% 21.4% 14.1% 8.5% 5.1% 2.9% 4.1% Pre- and Post-Realignment One-Year Conviction Rates 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 24.0% 21.1% 22.7% 20.8% 22.9% 22.4% 22.2% 21.4% 21.0% 21.8% 21.5% 20.5% 20.3% 20.4% 19.2% 19.2% 20.3% 20.4% 19.8% 18.9% 18.6% 18.1% 17.4% 16.7% 10% 0% Pre-Realignment Post-Realignment Conviction Types 100% 90% 80% 43.4% 41.9% 56.6% 58.1% Pre-Realignment Post-Realignment 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Felony Misdemeanor Number of Convictions Per 1,000 Released 350 300 292 278 281 255 250 242 271 248 249 254 249 234 236 232 243 238 220 212 232 231 201 206 241 225 200 150 100 50 0 Pre-Realignment 239 Post-Realignment Number of Times Offenders Were Convicted Pre-Realignment Count of Conviction Cycles N % Post-Realignment N % Total 90,514 100.0% 58,746 100.0% 0 1 2 3+ 71,633 16,319 2,208 354 79.1% 18.0% 2.4% 0.4% 46,425 10,179 1,804 338 79.0% 17.3% 3.1% 0.6% Pre- and Post-Realignment One-Year Return to Prison Rates 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 47.0% 45.7% 44.3% 41.2% 40% 37.8% 33.8% 30.3% 30% 24.3% 20.5% 20% 16.6% 12.7% 8.5% 10% 0% 7.1% 7.6% 7.5% 7.8% 7.3% 7.4% Pre-Realignment 8.3% 7.6% 7.7% Post-Realignment 6.9% 7.1% 6.3% Pre- and Post-Realignment Types of Returns to Prison 100% 0.1% 90% 80% 70% 60% 75.2% 50% 99.9% 40% 30% 20% 10% 24.8% 0% Pre-Realignment Post-Realignment New Conviction Parole Violations CONCLUSION • Arrest rates have been on a decline since Realignment and the initial gap observed between pre- and post-Realignment has diminished • Conviction rates also gradually declined after October 2011 and remained lower than pre-Realignment rates through the end of the time frame studied • Return to prison rates have held steady post-Realignment, much lower than the pre-Realignment rate, with RTCs being virtually non-existent OFFICE OF RESEARCH CDCR Denise Allen, Chief Research and Evaluation Branch Denise.Allen@cdcr.ca.gov