Emergency Logistics in
Anti-bioterrorism Systems
Lindu Zhao, Ph.D.
Institute of Systems Engineering
Southeast University
P. R. China
Outline
1. Background of the Research
2. Analyze the problem from the
viewpoint of systems engineering
3. What can we do?
4. So far, we have accomplished
that…
5. Future work
1. Background of the Research
Anthrax mail
SARS
911
How to relieve?
Marburg
Hemorrhagic
fevers
Ebola
Smallpox,
Chorla
……
Emergency Logistics in America
• In 1990s, America began to invest lots of money
to build and perfect their warning defense system
of public health emergency, aiming to defense the
potential terrorism attacks of biology, chemistry
and radioactivity material at the height of state
safety.
Emergency Logistics in America
• MMRS (Metropolitan Medical Response System)
is an important part, which played a crucial role in
the “9.11” tragedy and delivered 50 tons of
medical materials to New York in 7 hours.
Emergency Logistics in America
• In the bioterrorists’ attack of anthrax in October,
2001, the federal medicine reserve storage
delivered a great deal of medical materials to local
health departments.
• In 2002, America invested $1.1 billion to enlarge
the federal medicine reserve and added the reserve
storages from 8 to 12, which covered the whole
country.
Emergency Logistics in America
• Any domestic place can get the reserved vaccine,
antibiotics, medicine (including disinfection
facilities) and other emergency rescue materials in
12 hours.
• Besides, America invested $918 million to enlarge
the medicine reserve of state and local health
departments and developed the project titled
NEME (National Emergency Medical Extranet).
Emergency Logistics in Other Countries
• England, France, Italy and others have
made anti-bioterrorism plans and
established the anti-bioterrorism warning
defense systems after “9.11” .
Emergency Logistics in China
• How about China?
• In 2003, the outbreak of SARS (Severe Acute
Respiratory Syndrome) in China disclosed the
vulnerability of our system for emergency rescue
materials reserve and emergency distribution.
Emergency Logistics in China
• Till May 9th 2003, the State Department promulgated
“Regulations of Responding Public Health Emergency”,
and then, the system of emergency rescue materials
reserve and distribution in China is to be regulated.
What’s the problem?
• So, are we late?!
• Another question is: what should we do?
2. Analyze the problem from the
viewpoint of systems engineering
Covered by the
emergency logistics
• Keywords:
(1) Diffusion
(2) Coverage location
(3) Collaboration
Diffusion
of the
biological
virus
Covered by the
emergency logistics
Diffusion of biological virus
• Bioterrorist threats are real. They have a
huge influence on social stability, economic
development, and people’s physical and
mental health. Moreover, the influence is at
a global scale.
Diffusion of biological virus
• Some scholars have used smallpox as a case
and analyzed bio-terror response logistics.
Their results show that the diffusion of the
biological virus can be prevented in certain
degree with vaccination or contact isolation.
An example…
• Once a city is attacked by biological virus
(such as smallpox, anthrax, botulin toxin,
etc), it will construct a dangerous diffusion
network, in which each person can be
considered as a node. The disease will
diffuse to another city when the person who
has been infected moves from one place to
another.
An example…
emergency logistics network
diffusion network
Cover the emergency demand
• The flow of the emergency relief materials in
the emergency logistics network is driven by
the dangerous source diffusion network, which
has different structure from the general
logistics network.
Different between the two logistics
modes
Manufacturer
Wholesaler
Retailer
Customer
Fig.1 General logistics network
evacuation
Logistics
Logistics
Emergency
Center
People in
disaster area
isolation
Vaccine
Research
Fig.2 Emergency logistics network in the anti-bioterrorism system
Collaboration with the two networks
• So, the rule of the dangerous source
diffusion, and the collaboration between the
diffusion network and the emergency
logistics network should be available during
the construction of an anti-bioterrorism
warning defense system.
A Challenge
• However, the reality is that we don’t even know
what the virus will be and how to control it.
Additionally, we have no effective vaccine during
the initial response phase, for example, the case of
SRAS.
3. What can we do?
• Keywords:
Diffusion
Collaboration
Emergency logistics network
The rule of dangerous source
diffusion
• Although the rule of dangerous source
diffusion isn’t the major point in our research,
it is the necessary part when analyzing the
emergency demand.
• Models such as SEIR, SEIR-like, SEIRS,
SIS etc, will enlighten us during the research.
The collaboration between the two
networks
• The complex network models:
(1)The uniform network model
a> rule network model
b> random graph model
c> small-world network model
(2) scale-free network model.
The collaboration between the two
networks
• Formulate the dangerous source diffusion
network and the emergency logistics network
using the complex network models.
The collaboration between the two
networks
• Based on the characteristic that emergency
logistics network is driven by the dangerous
source diffusion network, we investigate the
collaborative relationship between the two
networks.
Optimization of the emergency
logistics network
• Study the national emergency material
storage model and optimize the distribution
system model.
Optimization of the emergency
logistics network
• Develop the emergency resource allocation
model in single city and urban
agglomeration.
Optimization of the emergency
logistics network
• Analyze the integrated and dynamic models
with both national emergency logistics
network and city emergency logistics
network.
Optimization of the emergency
logistics network
• Study the collaborative dynamic model of
the multi-level complex network
Simulation of the emergency
logistics network
• Dynamic changes of the models mentioned
above will be analyzed after the relative
parameters are identified, and MATLAB
will be used to obtain numerical simulation
results.
Technical Route
Epidemical model
Dangerous source
diffusion model
Complex
network
model
Coordin
ation
Emergency Logistics
Network Model
Indicators of emergency
response system
Modeling
Dynamic optimization of
multilayer synergies
optimizatio
n of supply
system
Witness
simulation
＋
Numerical
simulation
Two Integrated
Dynamic Optimization
Optimiza
tion of
country
system
model
＋
Optimiza
tion of
City
system
model
Optimization
Feedback
Simulation
Nonlinear Dynamics; Network Theory
Research Significance
• First, it can increase our awareness of antibioterrorism, and provide examples for how to
enhance our ability to protect national security
and public safety.
Research Significance
• Second, our research results in optimization
and simulation of the network coordination
mechanisms will be disseminated widely
and provide potential applications in the
domain of systems engineering and
management.
We want to …
• 1）Analyze dynamic behavior of the
dangerous source diffusion process, discuss its
topology and marginal values, and establish
randomness and definite dangerous source
diffusion models.
• 2）Analyze both time and spatial complexity
of the dynamic multi-stage emergency logistics
network.
We want to …
• 3）Establish a multi-level complex,
coordinated network model to make sure
continuous supply and smooth operation.
• 4）Develop a multi-level dynamic simulation
algorithm for emergency logistics network.
4. So far, we have accomplished
that…
• The Scheduling Problem of Emergency
Resource with Pulse Need
•
ZHAO Lindu, LIU Ming, DAI Dongfu. Research on Scheduling Problem of Emergency
Resource with Pulse Need[J]. Journal of Southeast University, 2008, In press
We have accomplished that…
• Analysis of a Biological Dangerous Source
Diffusing Dynamics Model with Migration
Without vaccination
•
With pulse vaccination
Qu Linbo, Han Ruizhu. Analysis of a Biology Dangerous Source Diffusing Dynamics
Model with Migration[J]. Journal of Southeast University, 2007, 37, S(II), 381-386
We have accomplished that…
• Analysis of the synergetic dynamics model
of emergency rescue network in the antibioterrorism system
•
Li Zhi, Han Ruizhu, Liu Ming. Analysis of the synergetic dynamics model of emergency
rescue network in the anti-bioterrorism system[J]. Journal of Southeast University, 2007,
37, S(II), 374-380
We have accomplished that…
• Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains with
Replenishment Sources
Storage 2
Storage 1
•
Storage 3
Storage n
……
Replenishment system
Storage 5
•
WS
Storage 4
Storage network
Lindu Zhao, Li Sun. Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains with Replenishment Sources[C].
5th International Conference on Service Systems and Sernvice Management, Australia, 2008
We have accomplished that…
• Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains with
Replenishment Sources
•
WOS
Storage 2
Storage 1
Storage 3
Storage n
Storage 4
……
Storage network
Replenishment system
•
Lindu Zhao, Li Sun. Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains with Replenishment Sources[C].
5th International Conference on Service Systems and Sernvice Management, Australia, 2008
We have accomplished that…
• Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains with
Replenishment Sources
•
Lindu Zhao, Li Sun. Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains with Replenishment Sources[C].
5th International Conference on Service Systems and Sernvice Management, Australia, 2008
We have accomplished that…
• Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains with
Replenishment Sources
Curve of total cost of rescue
change with inoculation cycle
Curve of epidemic periods change
with inoculation cycle
•
Lindu Zhao, Li Sun. Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains with Replenishment Sources[C].
5th International Conference on Service Systems and Sernvice Management, Australia, 2008
We have accomplished that…
• Emergency Service Modes of Supply
Chains with Replenishment Sources
Storage 2
Storage 1
Storage 3
Storage n
Storage 4
……
Storage
network
•
Replenishment
system
Zhao Lindu. A Collaboration Model for Emergency Rescue Systems[C]. POMS 19th
Annual Conference, USA, 2008
We have accomplished that…
• A Replenishment Model for Emergency
Rescue Systems
The collaborative replenishment network of emergency rescue system
•
ZHAO Lin-du JIANG Yi-ping. A Replenishment Model for Emergency Rescue
Systems[C]. The Third International Conference on Innovative Computing, Information
and Control, 2008
We have accomplished that…
• Study on large-crowd dispersing in densely
gathering place by using crowd dynamics
module
•
Sun li, Zhao lindu. Study on large-crowd dispersing in densely gathering place by using
crowd dynamics module[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2007,7(5):124-127.
We have accomplished that…
• Integrated and Dynamic Optimization Control of
Multi-Level Anti-bioterrorism Emergency
Logistics Network
National
storage
City
center
emergency
Emergency
demand points
•
emergency
Capacity and the costs
Liu Ming, Zhao Lindu, Cheng Ting. Integrated and Dynamic Optimization Control of
Multi-Level Anti-bioterrorism Emergency Logistics Network[J]. Journal of Southeast
University, 2007, 37, S(II), 361-366
We have accomplished that…
• Urban Emergency Coordination Based on
Social Networks
City social network
•
Accumulation process
of emergency materials
Lin Chong Zhao Lindu. Research on Urban Emergency Coordination Based on Social
Networks[J]. China public security, 2008, In press
We have accomplished that…
• Designing Optimal Emergency Logistics Networks
with Time Delay and Demand Uncertainty
with rescue medecine
without rescue medicine
1000
1000
S(t)
E(t)
I(t)
900
800
700
700
600
600
S(t),E(t),I(t)
S(t),E(t),I(t)
800
500
400
400
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
time t
12
14
16
18
20
graph of epidemic diffusion model
under situation that no emergency
measures are adopted
•
500
300
0
S(t)
E(t)
I(t)
900
0
5
10
time t
15
20
graph of epidemic diffusion model
under situation that emergency
measures are adopted
Wang Xinping Wang Haiyan. Designing Optimal Emergency Logistics Networks with Time
Delay and Demand Uncertainty[C]. POMS 19th Annual Conference, USA, 2008
More about our work …
Some other papers
Author(s)
Papers
Ting Cheng，Lindu Zhao， Research on Collaborative Distribution Model of Emergency
Ming Liu
Logistics Hybrid Network
LIU Ming, ZHAO Lindu
Research on Emergency Materials Mix-Collaborative
Distribution Mode in System of Anti-bioterrorism[J]. Journal
of system engineering, In press
LIU Ming, ZHAO Lindu
Optimization of the Emergency Materials Distribution Based
on Multiple Traveling Salesman Mode[J]. Chinese Journal of
Management Science, In press
……
……
5. Future work
• Key points:
1> Further description of the diffusion rule.
2> Further research on how to optimize the
emergency logistics network driven by biological
virus diffusion.
3> Further research on how to collaborate and
integrate the former two networks.
Acknowledgement
• This work was supported by National
Natural Science Foundation of China
(70671021)
Thank you for your attention!
52