Russian Politics P.Sc. 251
Anton Chekhov

 Spawned from old Soviet Union
 Largest geographic country
 Eur-Asian, northern
 Massively uneven demography
 Ethnically diverse (language,culture, etc.)
 Only other large nuclear arsenal
 In the throes of massive transition

 Small fiefdoms
 Vulnerable to Swedes, Turks, Mongols
 Brutal, authoritarian politics “Tzar”
 Serfdom
 Conservative & Reactionary
 Education, science, pluralism stunted
 “Slavs”

 The Tzars & Tzarist Russia
 World War I
 The Russian Revolution
 The Bolshevik Revolution
 Civil War
 Lenin: 1921-24 NEP
Ideology / PARTY

 Meaningful players = classes
 History moves through stages/epochs
 When capitalist society develops fully, the socialist revolution will result
 Bourgeoisie
Petty Bourgeoisie
Proletariat
Peasantry

policy uncertainty ...
 Leadership transition: void
 Stalin planning centralization control classic political structure

Five Vertical Bureaucracies with Interlocking Directorates
PARTY State Military Pol.
Police
Mass
Orgs

Five Vertical Parallel Bureaucracies with Interlocking Directorates
PARTY State Military Pol.
Police
Mass
Orgs

 World War II
 emerging from WW II
 Stalin’s death / ‘53-’56 void
 20th Party Congress / Secret Speech
Krushchev
Thaw
“Change”
 Who’s Listening ? Aspiring young politicos …

 Krushchev’s undoing … failed reform & Cuba
 1964: Brezhnev & Kosygin gray, bureaucrats routinized policies illusion-making …
 Seventies … posturing to cover decline
 ‘81-’85 void: Andropov, Chernenko

 Traditional structure: PARALLEL &
VERTICAL & CENTRALIZED
 No design for leadership succession
 Little multi-stage policy analysis …
 Objective = stay in power …
 Change is threatening!
 Power exists IF believed ...

 Western systems of law require specificity, precision, clarity of rules
 In a composite sense, laws specify the “line” between what one can and cannot do
 In Western systems, persons are encouraged to
‘use’ all the latitude they are given
 As a consequence, elaborates systems must be put in place to “guard” the line i.e. social control

 In Communist systems (and elsewhere) rules are presented to the public in purposively ambiguous terms
 Against the law to engage in “anti-system behavior;” or
“hooliganism”
 The “line” designating what you can or cannot do is embedded in a cloud that you cannot see into …
 Result: given the uncertainty, you do not do anything that could be judged illegal
 Consequence: highly efficient social control

illegal behaviors
Line & Cloud
` legal behaviors

The relationship between the PARTY and the STATE is most closely like which of the following?
(a) a father and twelve year old son
(b) two twin brothers
(c) a priest and a devout catholic
(d) a general and a private
(e) two political science professors
Think carefully …

 Different person; different attitude
 Younger, university educated
 Skeptical about past; apprehensive future
 Problems: economic decline military drain political monopoly polarized politics

 Tinker or Change? radical/incremental
 Enlist Communist Party or remove?
 Centralize power or de-centralize power?
 Open door to public input?
 Increase information flow?
 Tolerate more inequality / incentives?
 Conform to western norms?

 Tinker …?
 Loyal to CPSU
 Centralize while de-centralizing
 Open door / ajar
 Increase information
 Incentives +
 Conform in politics / caution in economics

 Union Treaty/issue: de-centralization
 Gorbachev on holiday
 Plotters: Politburo Memb./Conservatives
 YELTSIN & Gorbachev story
 Failure: inept plan, pitiful execution
 Fallout: dual leadership & ambiguity
 Gorbachev uncertainty, weakness

 Betrayal & duplicity
 Political ambition & nationalism
 Minsk conspiracy
 Gorbachev without power base …
 Radical strategy without analysis!
 Dec. 25, 1991
 What next??

 Legislature vs. Executive
 Representation & Responsiveness
 Politics as confrontation; not compromise
 WINNING & losing: zero-sum outcomes
 “democracy” as elections ONLY
 the jabbing, critical milieu ...

(before power)
1931 Date of Birth
1986 Gorbachev brings to Moscow to run Party
1987 Yeltsin criticizes Party leadership
1988 Yeltsin criticizes Gorbachev’s wife
1989 quits CP; elected to Soviet leg. as democrat
1990 creates “presidency” of Russian Republic
1991 elected Russian “president” (June) resists COUP & backs Gorbachev (Aug) works to undermine USSR & break-up (Fall) declares himself Pres. country Russia (Dec)

(with power)
 1992 Declares all Soviet assets now Russian;
Duplicates Soviet political institutions
 1993 Sept. Announces dissolving Duma
Oct. Violence: leg vs. exec
Nov. “Constitution”
Dec. Duma elections
 1994 Constitutional referendum (Apr.)
500 Days experiment
 1995 Chechen rebellion
Duma elections (Dec.)

(with “real” power)
 1996 June/July Presidential elections
Yeltsin stroke; Yeltsin wins!
 1997 Passive leadership
 1998 new PM strategy; GKO crisis (Aug)
 1999 Scandals … “family”
Duma elections, resignation
 2000 Yeltsin immunity early Pres. elections (Mar.) PUTIN

 Compare past to present …
 Compare present to future …
 Prognosis for health of the system values … destination (“democracy”) machinery … vehicle leadership … driver

 Expectations …
 Economic vs. Political Values /
Equality democracy vs. capitalism
 Replacement values: market system compromise
 Freedom vs. Tolerance
 The search for values - where, when?

(a) defines the status, rights and duties of policemen
(b) defines corporate fraud and tax evasion
(c) outlaws vigilante groups aimed at stopping rogue gangs
(d) defines penalties for non-voting
(e) changes the system for constitutional amendments

 Performance vs. Faith
 Nationalism vs. Patriotism
Confusion, counter-productive polemics
? Can you expect support democracy when experiencing economic trauma

 Legislature -- Executive
 Centralization -- De-centralization
 Distributive -- Extractive
 Legal/Social Control Cloud & Line
 Capitalism without Capital
 Education
 Military

Branches of Power

 Elect leaders
 Listen
 Patience
 Legitimize rules/control
 Doors & windows
 Consensus-seeking
 Protect minorities
 Recognize management costs
 Prepare to compromise/lose
 Organize
 Equitable rules
 Patriotism
 Transparency

Berezovsky
Golikova
Fradkov
Kudrin
Serdyukov
Luzhkov
Zubkov Yavlinsky
Zhirinovsky Lavrov
Shuvalov
Nemstov
Chernomyrdin
Ivanov, Sergei
Khodorkovsky
Nabiullina

 Opportunistic
 Insecure
 Egocentric?
 Inexperienced
 Recognize their POWER
 Russians expect unofficial behavior
 Uncomfortable with sharing power
 Pension for centralized control
 Lack legitimacy

 Rookies vs. “born agains”
 Political WISDOM vs.
Political COURAGE

 Definition …
 Ideological, Mass, Platform founded,
Candidate founded ?
 “Right” “Left”
 Nonparty Parties: “Unity”
 Coalitions

* Unity
* Yabloko
* Union of Right
Forces
* Russia’s Choice
* Russian Movement for Democratic
Reform
* Russia’s Democratic
Choice
 Women of Russia
 Our Home is Russia
 Democratic Party
 Fatherland
 Congress of Russian
Communties #
 Liberal Democrats #
 Kommunists +
 Agrarian Party +

 Elections as legitimizing mechanism
 Elections as weapon (parliamentary)
 Winter / Summer variants … ?
 Organization
 Predictions
 Costs

 Single Member
District Plurality
 Proportional
Representation
 Understandable
 Constituency focus
 Big picture misrep
 Favors concentration
 Favors “splash” candidates
 “party lists”
 System focus
 No tie to constituency
 Presumes no pattern
 Protects distribution
 Protects minorities
 Minimizes “splash”

 Duma Elections
The Record …
‘93 BIG SURPRISE LD Party plurality; CP next
‘95 BIG SURPRISE CP plurality
’99 Emerging pattern CP plurality
’03 BIG SURPRISE United Russia; LD Party next old system = “nomenklatura”
Transition enabled many to retain power …
’93 * vast majority CP elites still in place
* 57% nomenklatura retained

 Preelection “reforms”
1. make deal with republican governors
(elect/appoint)
2. parties* making 5% cut – (4) easy sledding … on any future ballot
3. parties not making cut -(40) petitions: 2 million / 1 month very high election bond not automatically on ballot
 Parties
“parties of power” vs. “opposition parties”
… in new democracies how and when political parties emerge is central to political development.
* if United Russia not a party … entitled to status & privileges?

 60,712,299 voters
(55.75% of 109 million registered voters)
 37.57% voted for UNITED RUSSIA = 120 seats
 12.61% KPRF = 40 seats
 11.45% LIBERAL DEMOCRAT = 36 seats
 9.02% HOMELAND (Rodina) = 29 seats
225 seats
YABLOKO 4.3% 2,609,823
UNION OF RIGHT FORCES (SPS) 3.97% 2,408,356
“against all” 4.7% 2,851,600

 Winners : Putin & United Russia
(loose pol. org. supporting the admin.)
 Big Losers: CP & Democrats
 Big Individual Losers:
Zyuganov, Yavlinsky, Chubais

 United Russia government officials/Establishment
 KPRF (“Communists”) opposition rhetoric/”tamed leftists”/no allies
 Liberal Democrats (Ultra-Nationalists) compliant nationalists/vote with E.
 Rodina (Motherland/Homeland) manufactured by gov to undermine KPRF;
E. controlled

Factional Strength in State Duma
(PR portion)
’94 ’95 ’96 ’99 ’00 ’03
Russia’s Choice 73 --
SPS ---
PRES 30 --
--
32
--
Yabloko 28 46 21
LD Union 26 --
DPR 15 --
Our Home is R --
Fatherland --
--
--
65 --
--
’04 --
 Unity ---
Women of R 23 --
New Regional Policy 66 --
Regions of R --
47
82 United Russia 120
--
--
41 40
Agrarian 55* 35* 42
 LD Party 64 51 16 Liberal Democrats 40
Russia’s Way 14 --
People’s Power --
--
 KPRF 45* 149* 89 KPRF 36
 Motherland --
37 --
--Rodina 29

 United Russia claiming not pol. party refused to participate in TV debates
 22 other parties debated …
 United Russia got “news” coverage via leaders who were gov ministers
 OECD estimates that 56% of campaign coverage was on Putin &
Unity without “campaigning”

 OECD concludes election NOT up to
“Western standard”
 OPPOSITION in ’90’s =
(to exec leadership)
Reds & Browns
’00 ’04 = Reds & Dems
’04 ? = … Pinks
 Party System future?
49 – 22 – 4 -- ? Optimal? 2, 1

 Does more electoral choice = more democracy?
 Are political parties shaped by the general public? define issues & recruit leadership
 Does the opposition have any role in contributing to the policy-making process?

 Does more electoral choice = more democracy? NO
 Are political parties shaped by the general public? NO define issues & recruit leadership
 Does the opposition have any role in contributing to the policy-making process? NO

 Presidential Campaigns ‘04
(in limbo until Duma result)
 Parties with entitled Candidates …
United Russia – Putin
KPRF – Zyuganov out; new leader running contemplating boycott
Liberal Democrats – Zhirinovsky replaces himself with sacrificial lamb
Rodino runs unknown; not party leader

 Democrats via Duma election exclus.
(Yavlinsky, Nemtsov, Chubais)
 Khodorovsky via indictment
(oligarch jailed on tax charge; held without bail; hearing March 25 th )
 Rybkin via breakdown
(Berezovsky financial backing; former PM and Natl Security Advisor)

 March 14, 2004
 Conventional wisdom: Putin will win on first ballot with 70% of the vote
 No other candidate has system-wide name recognition
 Putin will not debate

 THIRD TERM?
*unratified constitution prohibits third term;
*constitutional amendment would be required;
*2/3 vote in Duma = 300/450
(PM received 352 votes in new Duma)

Chechnya no discussion during campaign
Black Widows -- Moscow subway, theater, streets
Political Illusions (internal/external)
Military attempt at bolstering / sub-missile debacle
“Doing the job without the resources”
Confusion about their role … since August Coup ‘91
Economic development
→
Oligarchs & uneven wealth resonates w/masses
Rodino advocates returning wealth / rev. privatiz
→
Competitive manufacturing
→
Jobs

 OSCE/14 countries refuse to monitor
 Kasyanov, Kasparov, Zyuganov
Other Russia refused permit demonstrate day after …
 Nemtsov & vanishing democrats
 Zhirinovsky & LDPR boycott
Boycott criminal under law to protect right to participate in elections

 State controlled media coverage:
Medvedev Dec. 70%; Jan. 88%
Zyuganov 11%; 2%
 Election law: “equality of the candidates in campaign time in the mass media” court ruled: lack of a definition of equality means that the statistical analysis of the coverage is inadmissible – all candidates must simply receive “some” coverage!

 Medvedev officially took one day off without pay this week to “campaign” – only day in entire candidacy!
 Made one 10 minute address stressing political stability and protecting Russian sovereignty
 Aired free repeatedly during newscasts …
Should have cost $800,000 each time and violated laws governing campaign ads –
 Media defended saying that Medvedev’s
“event was more interesting and newsworthy

 Channel One: Posner blacklist/”stop list” not to be invited; forbidding the mention of individual public figures: Kasparov, Yavlinsky
 December parliamentary elections:
United Russia polled over 99% in many districts
 farce, Byzantine palace intrigue, tasteless farce played out by untalented directors

 The Central Election Commission has created a sub-commission to officially tally the votes.
 They will set the voter protocol, issue the official tally of votes and field all complaints.
 ALL members of the sub-commission are members of the pro-Kremlin
United Russia Party!

 Medvedev 72.9%
 Zyuganov 15%
 Zhirinovsky 10.9%
 Bogdanov 1% turnout 70%
2004: Putin 71.31% turnout 64.4%

New Year’s Address, Last Speech, Last “Press Conference”
100 questions/78 journalists
 Called opposition criticism “unconstructive”
 Most bothersome problem: “corruption”
 Solution:“legal, even repressive” measures
 Characterization 1990s: “Ravaged” by inflation, devaluation, default; by terrorists and civil war; by outside forces inciting separatism.
State power was “ineffective;” much of economy in hands of oligarchs and criminals.

 Born 1965, parents = intellectuals
 in school: leader, calm, disciplined, confident
 Fan, British hard rock: Black Sabbath,
Led Zeppelin, Pink Floyd, Deep Purple
 At 23, christened into Russian Orthodox church
 Studied LAW, St. Petersburg, 1987
 Taught civil law; external relations office
 St. Petersburg; business world & lawyer

 Deputy Head of Government Administration
 Deputy Chief of Staff (President Putin) 2000
 March 2000 Putin’s Campaign Manager
 June 2000 Gazprom Board Chairman
 October 2003 Chief of Staff
 2005 First Deputy Prime Minister (Duma) healthcare, education, ag, housing
 Dec. 10, 2007 Putin taps Medvedev as preferred candidate for President; wants Putin as PM

 Shevtsova, “Medvedev is not an extremist. He is not known for any kind of harsh views on politics, and apparently Medvedev better suits
Putin’s view of how to achieve continuity.”
 “Medvedev projects a mild -mannered public image and has been widely seen as a functionary devoted to Putin rather than as an independent thinker.”
 “If Putin wants to return in two or three years,
Medvedev will be the person who will without a doubt give up the path for him.”

“Russia can only be governed by a strong presidential power. If Russia is turned into a parliamentary republic, it will disappear. This is my profound conviction. Russia is a federative structure and must be based on a firm executive vertical.”

 Four I’s & Seven Tasks
Institutions, Infrastructure,
Innovation, Investments
1. Overcome legal nihilism / reform courts
2. Lower administrative barriers
3. Lower tax burden
4. Make ruble hard currency
5. Modernize transportation & energy
6. Create basis for innovation
7. Develop program for social development

Economic Plan for ’10 &
2nd Decade

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


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Economy:
Lurching forward & backward
Suffering from Spasms -GOOD NEWS
 Russian GDP per cap $16,000 2.7 X China’s
 Flat tax = 13%; corporate tax = 24% lowest in Europe
 Privatized 5500 more firms
 In 2000, economy 22 nd in world; ‘09 7 th
 Oligarchs under severe pressure from government
 Middle class from 8 million to 55 million
 Poverty: from 30% to 14%
 2008 stock market set world record losses;
2009 set world record for growth!
 Standard & Poor’s raised “outlook” from “negative” to
“stable”

Economy: The BAD News
 4-5% of Russian are politically loyal entrepreneurial class that behaves like the middle class in western societies
 Economic Openness index (Fraser Institute):
Russia ranks 83 rd behind Uganda, Namibia, Kazakstan
 Industrial output down 11% in ’09
 Natural gas output down 17%
 Fixed investment declined by 18%
 Exports down 44%; Imports down 31%
 Medvedev: Unemployment main social problem 6.5m 9%

Medvedev: “invest abroad”
 follow China’s example, buy foreign companies to boost tech development
 government should subsidize to enable retooling of Russian industry
 diversify investments; win new markets
 create influence abroad; thereby strengthen state

 If PM, no portrait of Medvedev in office
 Middle class – 70%
 Responsibilities for econ & social devel transferred to regional & local authorities
 Russia returns to the world stage
 Econ moves beyond reliance on natural resources & commodities
 Innovative development for competitive advantage

 Disgrace that one in every two
Russian men die before 60; life expectancy to 75
 Close gap between rich and poor
 Four fold increase / labor productivity
 Become world financial center
 Reduce bureaucracy & corruption
 Embrace de-centralization/accountability

REQUISITES:
 Value consensus
Discernable direction
 Political Machinery
“Vehicle” to transport society
 Effective Leadership
“Driver” to maneuver toward destination
Putin = driver without operable vehicle or established destination …

 Most dangerous place in the world for journalists not in war zone
 Reporters Without Borders …
“Russia among those countries where press freedom is under the greatest threat.” “on a par with Zimbabwe”
 Journalist two months in prison: marching in demonstration , media offices raided, forcibly assigned to psychiatric hospitals, mysterious killings of investigative reporters

Intellectual /Academic Squeeze
 EU University (St. Petersburg) closed
“unprecedented attack on academic freedom” buildings declared fire hazard, all academic work ceased, classrooms sealed, library shut
Politically motivated closing:
1 B Euro grant to advise Russia’s political parties;
EUSP = agent of foreign meddling
 Ethnically motivated killings of dark-skinned persons in Moscow – six last week; sixteen since Jan. 1

:
More GOOD NEWS
 Optimism is UP Pessimism is DOWN
30% optimistic from 30%)
18% pessimistic (down
 70% of firms took negative actions –
43% cut jobs, 34% cut wages, 26% cut work week
yet … 30% of young Russians say that they can find jobs quickly if dismissed
 53% say MEDIA does satisfy even the most discerning demands of the public (young 63%)
 48% say the MEDIA should instill moral values

Fighting Corruption from New Angle
 Past: pursue “takers” those demanding bribes
 Now: pursue “givers” those offering bribes
 Central government has prosecuted 800 senior government executives on corruption charges
 Russia ranks in the bottom ten European countries in terms of corruption
 Corruption perception index: Russia 146 th in world
 Mushrooming POLICE scandals: murders, no convictions
 Official Police response: demand end to defamation of police
… political battle emerged: police vs. media

 Bands of ultra-right nationalist groups randomly targeting nonwhite foreigners
 Extreme nationalism and neo-Nazism across Russia. More than 20 different types of xenophobic groups are active in
Moscow alone
 15 percent of the young Russian population supports the extreme nationalistic movement
 2009, 71 foreigners killed in hate crimes; ‘08, 110 ’10, 6
 “It will be tough to find anyone willing to invest or study in a country where violence and murders are motivated by skin color and nationality”





governors & governed



 PricewaterhouseCooper believes by 2050,
Russia will be Europe's “leading” economy
 China and India will lead Asia (competition)
 Brazil will lead South America
 US would lead North America
 PwC predicts that Russia would become
Europe's largest economy by 2020

 Chronically backward
 Primitive
 Dependent on raw material exports
 Averse to invent or manufacture
 Labor productivity is low
 Ubiquitous & chronic corruption
 Modernization founded on humanistic values
 Requires “knowledge based” economy
 “true and lasting progress can be made only by free and creative citizens, confident of their liberty.”

: News
 New campaign against alcohol consumption
Goal: cut consumption in half by 2020
 Consumption: 18 liters per year (homemade)
23,000 died alcohol poisoning; 75,000 more related diseases; 500,000 accident related
 Male life expectancy under 60; Europe aver. 77
 Remedies:
Ban advertising; censor all movie scenes

BAD News
 400,000 die annually from smoking … die 10-15 years earlier than without smoking
70% men smoke; 20% women
 ‘09 “natural population” declined by 37% to 141m
► fully offset by immigration … first growth in 15 yrs

Bad News
Medvedev’s MODERNIZATION program
► “Forward Russia” is underfunded!
5 main goals will get 6/100 of 1% of the Fed budget
Industrial production; armed forces; healthcare; information technology; education
► “Modernization will be conservative in content, nonviolent in methods, and democratic from the standpoint of reliance on the existing democratic institutions. The system will be spared revolutions.”

: already patterns
 Government functions may of necessity be assumed by business or criminal structures
 Payments for “free” medical care increasing
 Fees & bribes now commonplace in secondary and higher education
 Army reform is threatened by disappearing arms
 Terrorist acts commonplace in outlying regions
 Net effect: public see declining performance by the state

Jan. 2010
“Russia in the 21 st Century: Visions for the Future”
 “Twenty years after the beginning of society’s transformation, we can acknowledge that political and economic development has proven difficult.”
 “We have moved forward without determining where we are going and what our vision of the future is.”

 Vertical of power
 Sovereign democracy
 Strong state
 Grow government sector
 Media requires management
 Experts judge: the stronger
 Freedom
 Free & Prosperous
 Fair political competition
 Entrepreneurial liberty
 Government scrutinized and accountable
 Media unleashed
 Experts say: emerging

 Next presidential election 2012 … in two years
 Record: Putin two terms ‘00 – ’08
Medvedev in first term ‘08-’12
 Next presidential election has 5 year term
 Officially announced: ONE of them will run in 2012
 Not both! “We are close, understand each other well and work together.” Medvedev could not win without Putin’s support
 In Putin’s book, FIRST PERSON, “Medvedev is one of those people who inspire in me a sense of fellowship and team spirit.”

Drawing Cautious Conclusions:
 Medvedev is presenting himself as more committed to western style reform
 Some argue that this is a good cop; bad cop strategy to appeal to broader segments of Russian voters
 It is unwise to assume significant differences exist between
Putin & Medvedev given that they need each other
 The differences are positive in any event because they frame a dialogue on the issues which can lead to more effective policies

 Consensus on values: slowly forming around positive ideas C
 Systemic architecture:
(political & economic machinery) more clearly assembled than earlier C+ but not yet functional
 Effective, skilled leaders: significant progress toward reason B

Perhaps there is reason to …

Medvedev: “work with any”
“business of the American people”
 “It is certainly easier to work with a person who has modern positions and is not blinded by the past.”
 Institute of Political research: Markov
“a victory for Senator McCain would be the worstcase scenario”
 McCain: “I looked into Putin’s eyes and saw the letters KGB.” McCain wants Russia out of G-7.

Clinton: “Putin doesn’t have a soul.”
Putin : “A head of state should have a head.”
Obama: Since Putin will remain in charge,
“We should work on arms control and mutual interests while not neglecting democracy and accountability.”

 Foremost: confident there will something to talk about in 2009!
 Russia is likely on a path similarly
“variable” to the Putin years
 Russia is reasserting itself propped up by the high world prices for natural resources
 US policy faces an opening … new leadership could restructure the dialogue.

 Recognize management costs
 Doors & windows
 Listening
 Accountability
 Elects leaders
 Consensus-seeking
 Equitable rules
 Patience
 “legitimize” rules
 Patriotism
 Prepare to compromise / lose
 Organize
 “global” attitude
 Choice
 Protect minorities

 Is the system moving in a democratic or non-democratic direction?
UNCLEAR
 Are political institutions taking shape?
NO
 Are external relationships helping or hurting Russia develop? HURTING
 Does the leadership have “vision?” NO
 If so, are they up to the task? NO