Cuba ‘Canes Neg
T
1NC T -- Categories
1. Interpretation – Economic engagement must be trade, finance, energy,
development, transportation or telecommunications.
US Department of State 9 [1/20/2009, US Department of State, http://2001-2009.state.gov/e/eeb/92986.htm]
Total Economic Engagement seeks to integrate and coordinate all U.S. economic instruments and programs into
our regional and country strategies. The Bureau of Economic, Energy and Business Affairs’ (EEB) broad cross-section of
economic disciplines, interagency contacts, and expertise in such areas as trade, finance, energy, development,
transportation, and telecommunications help ensure this coordination.
2. Violation – The aff is NOT one of those 6 categories.
3. Reasons to Prefer –
A. Limits - each category is massive, they explode the topic by allowing
hundreds of new, conceptually distinct Affs --- makes Neg research impossible
B. Ground - different generics apply by category --- weather and disaster
preparedness are a topic to themselves --- steals core ground like politics and
trade-off and artificially inflates Aff advantage ground
4. Topicality is a voter for fairness and education.
Inherency
1NC
1. US and Cuba already fully collaborating on hurricanes in SQ
AP 13 “Under the radar, Cuba and US often work together”¶ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huffwires/20130410/cb-cuba-us-cooperation/ April 10, 2013
Cuba and the United States may be longtime enemies with a bucket overflowing with grievances, but the fast return of a Florida couple
who fled U.S. authorities with their two kidnapped children in tow shows the Cold War enemies are capable of remarkable
cooperation on many issues.¶ Indeed, diplomats and observers on both sides of the Florida Straits say American and Cuban law
enforcement officers, scientists, disaster relief workers, Coast Guard officials and other experts work
together on a daily basis, and invariably express professional admiration for each other.¶ "I don't think the story has been told, but
there is a real warmth in just the sort of day-to-day relations between U.S. and Cuban government officials," said Dan Whittle, who frequently
brings scientific groups to the island in his role as Cuba program director for the Environmental Defense Fund.¶ "Nearly every time I talk to
American officials they say they were impressed by their Cuban counterparts. There really is a high level of mutual respect."¶ Almost none
of these technical-level interactions make the headlines, but examples are endless.¶ Just last week, Cuba's top
environmental official Ulises Fernandez and several island oil experts attended a conference in New York of the International Association of
Drilling Contractors after the State Department expedited their visas.¶ And in
March, Cuba's leading weatherman, Jose Rubiera,
traveled to North Carolina on a fast-track visa to give a talk about hurricane evacuation procedures.
Last year's Hurricane Sandy, which slammed Cuba's eastern city of Santiago before devastating the northeastern United States, was a cruel
reminder that nature cares not about man's political squabbles.¶ The American government maintains a Coast Guard representative in Cuba,
and the two countries work together to interdict suspicious boats. A U.S. diplomat involved in the process told The Associated Press that
security officials on both sides are on a first-name basis, and that the Cubans happily accept FBI and Coast Guard baseball caps as gifts.¶ He and
other diplomats spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss bilateral issues publicly, but all said they had
noticed a thaw in daily interactions that belies the subzero temperatures that characterize official relations.¶ The two countries have been at
odds since shortly after Fidel Castro's bearded rebels marched into Havana in January 1959 and began to set up a Communist state. Washington
has maintained an economic embargo on the island for 51 years.¶ More recently, the countries have been locked in confrontation over the fate
of jailed American contractor Alan Gross, who the Cubans want to exchange for five of their intelligence agents sentenced to long jail terms in
the U.S.¶ Angry barbs between Havana and Washington on issues such as democracy, human rights and sovereignty are still the norm, and even
delivering each other's mail is a challenge. The countries, separated by just 90 miles of warm Caribbean seas, long-ago ended direct service.¶
"There are so many weird and abnormal aspects of the relationship between Cuba and the United States, things that don't occur between other
countries, that when something normal happens it is a surprise," said Carlos Alzugaray, a former Cuban diplomat.¶ He said Cuba has in recent
years taken a pragmatic approach, more often than not cooperating on drug enforcement and judicial issues, something he hoped would one
day lead to better ties.¶ "It is important to highlight ... that in judicial matters there is a willingness to cooperate and that could open a path to
other types of cooperation," he said, citing the return of Joshua Michael Hakken and his wife, Sharyn, as a case in point.¶ Cuba is believed to
harbor dozens of American fugitives from the 1960s and 1970s, many of them veterans of domestic militant groups like the Black Panthers.¶
But Havana has clearly shown in recent years that it has no interest in becoming a refuge for common criminals – deporting suspected
murderers, child molesters and kidnappers who were foolish enough to think they would be beyond U.S. law enforcement's reach.¶ The
Hakkens are accused of kidnapping their young sons from the custody of Sharyn's parents and sailing with them and his wife to Havana. Cuba
promptly informed the State Department of the couple's weekend arrival on the island, and worked with U.S. officials to send the family home
swiftly.¶ Both sides praised the joint effort.¶ "We would like to express our appreciation to the Cuban authorities for their extensive
cooperation to resolve this dangerous situation quickly," the U.S. Interests Section in Havana, which Washington maintains instead of an
embassy, wrote in a Wednesday statement.¶ In Washington, State Department spokesman Patrick Ventrell termed cooperation as "extensive,"
but said the case should not be taken as a sign of political opening.¶ "I'm not sure I would read into it one way or another," he said. "This was
cooperation on a specific law enforcement matter."¶ Diplomats agree, and point to less dramatic examples of cooperation as more germane.¶
U.S. and Cuban diplomats must get authorization
to travel outside each other's capitals, something that was once used as
a cudgel by both sides to get revenge for political slights. Lately, they say, permission has been granted on an almost routine
basis.¶ American diplomats have travelled increasingly throughout the island, for work and play. For its part, Cuba's top envoy in Washington,
Jose Cabanas, recently visited Georgia, Houston and New Orleans, among other places.¶ At times, diplomatic cooperation has reached levels
that would be surprising even between friendly nations.¶ During last month's World Baseball Classic, a U.S. Interests Section official personally
carried emergency visas for several Cuban coaches and support staff on a trip to Guam and handed them off to a Tokyo-based colleague, a U.S.
official told AP. At the time, Cuba was playing its early round games in Japan and would have needed the visas if the team had advanced to the
semifinals in San Francisco.¶ Several weeks ago, U.S. Consul General Timothy Roche spoke with Cuba's Communist Party daily Granma about
American immigration policy, believed to be the first time in 10 years that state-media carried such an interview with U.S. diplomatic staff.¶
Even on thornier issues like the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay – which Cuba has denounced as a torture camp – the two militaries hold
occasional joint exercises to prepare for brush fires and other emergencies.¶ Jorge Pinon, a leading expert on Cuba's oil industry and research
fellow at the University of Texas, said American and Cuban energy and environmental officials have for years worked past the political morass
and established strong working bonds.¶ When politics allows, he said, those ties could be the basis for something bigger.¶ "Just like ping pong
opened China and the U.S. relationship," Pinon said. "The environment, working on drugs and other subjects of common interest could
certainly be those bridges which will make us trust each other and be able to have a civil conversation on other topics."
2. No reason to do plan if already being done in SQ—redundant and wastes
resources.
Extension
None-unique US ad Cuba scientists already collaborating
Peterson et al, 2k12
[Emily; Daniel J. Whittle, J.D.; Douglas N. Rader, Ph.D.; Environmental Defense Fund, Bridging the Gulf:
Finding Common Ground on Environmental and Safety Preparedness for Offshore Oil and Gas in Cuba,
2012, http://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/EDF-Bridging_the_Gulf-2012.pdf]
American scientists and researchers have collaborated with their counterparts from
numerous institutions in Cuba including, but not limited to, the following: the Center for Marine
Research at the University of Havana; the Center for Fisheries Research in the Ministry of the Food Industry;
the Institute of Oceanology in the Ministry of Science, Technology, and the Environment; the Center for
Engineering and Environmental Management of Bays in the Ministry of Transportation; and the Center for
Coastal Ecosystems Research.94 The Obama Administration should be commended for enacting
policies that have facilitated professional travel by Cuban scientists to the United States. In
fact, since 2009 the U.S. State Department has significantly increased the number of nonimmigrant visas for Cuban scientists to attend workshops and meetings in the United States. For
additional details on U.S. NGOs and institutes active in this field, please see Appendix C: Organizations
Involved in U.S.-Cuba Environmental Cooperation. While diplomatic non-recognition hampers governmentto-government dialogue on issues of shared environmental interest, offshore exploratory activities in Cuba’s
EEZ have attracted the attention of U.S. government agencies whose missions are to protect the marine and
coastal resources of the United States. Though not a member of the Trinational Initiative mentioned above,
NOAA has been supportive of the NGO community’s science work in Cuba and has allowed senior staff to
travel to Cuba to participate in scientific and fisheries exchanges. Working within the scope of political
parameters, the Coast Guard is also engaged in multilateral meetings convened by the IMO to
plan for a potential oil spill in waters adjacent to U.S. territorial waters.
Non-unique Cuba and US already collaborating in various fields
Haven, 2k13
[Paul, Writer for the Associated Press, Under the Radar, Cuba and US Often Work Together, April 10th,
2013, http://bigstory.ap.org/article/under-radar-cuba-and-us-often-work-together]
Indeed, diplomats and observers on both sides of the Florida Straits say American and Cuban law
enforcement officers, scientists, disaster relief workers, Coast Guard officials and other
experts work together on a daily basis, and invariably express professional admiration for each other.
"I don't think the story has been told, but there is a real warmth in just the sort of day-to-day relations
between U.S. and Cuban government officials," said Dan Whittle, who frequently brings scientific groups to
the island in his role as Cuba program director for the Environmental Defense Fund. "Nearly every time I
talk to American officials they say they were impressed by their Cuban counterparts. There really is a high
level of mutual respect." Almost none of these technical-level interactions make the headlines, but examples
are endless. Just last week, Cuba's top environmental official Ulises Fernandez and several island oil experts
attended a conference in New York of the International Association of Drilling Contractors after the State
Department expedited their visas. And in March, Cuba's leading weatherman, Jose Rubiera,
traveled to North Carolina on a fast-track visa to give a talk about hurricane evacuation
procedures. Last year's Hurricane Sandy, which slammed Cuba's eastern city of Santiago before
devastating the northeastern United States, was a cruel reminder that nature cares not about man's political
squabbles. The American government maintains a Coast Guard representative in Cuba, and the
two countries work together to interdict suspicious boats. A U.S. diplomat involved in the process told The Associated Press that
security officials on both sides are on a first-name basis, and that the Cubans happily accept FBI and Coast Guard baseball caps as gifts.
He and other diplomats spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss bilateral issues publicly, but all
said they had noticed a thaw in daily interactions that belies the subzero temperatures that characterize official relations. The two
countries have been at odds since shortly after Fidel Castro's bearded rebels marched into Havana in January 1959 and began to set up a
Communist state. Washington has maintained an economic embargo on the island for 51 years. More recently, the countries have been
locked in confrontation over the fate of jailed American contractor Alan Gross, who the Cubans want to exchange for five of their
intelligence agents sentenced to long jail terms in the U.S. Angry barbs between Havana and Washington on issues such as democracy,
human rights and sovereignty are still the norm, and even delivering each other's mail is a challenge. The countries, separated by just 90
miles of warm Caribbean seas, long-ago ended direct service. "There are so many weird and abnormal aspects of the relationship
between Cuba and the United States, things that don't occur between other countries, that when something normal happens it is a
surprise," said Carlos Alzugaray, a former Cuban diplomat. He said Cuba has in recent years taken a pragmatic approach, more often
than not cooperating on drug enforcement and judicial issues, something he hoped would one day lead to better ties. "It is important to
highlight ... that in judicial matters there is a willingness to cooperate and that could open a path to other types of cooperation," he said,
citing the return of Joshua Michael Hakken and his wife, Sharyn, as a case in point. Cuba is believed to harbor dozens of American
fugitives from the 1960s and 1970s, many of them veterans of domestic militant groups like the Black Panthers. But Havana has clearly
shown in recent years that it has no interest in becoming a refuge for common criminals — deporting suspected murderers, child
molesters and kidnappers who were foolish enough to think they would be beyond U.S. law enforcement's reach. The Hakkens are
accused of kidnapping their young sons from the custody of Sharyn's parents and sailing with them and his wife to Havana. Cuba
promptly informed the State Department of the couple's weekend arrival on the island, and worked with U.S. officials to send the family
home swiftly. Both sides praised the joint effort. "We would like to express our appreciation to the Cuban authorities for their extensive
cooperation to resolve this dangerous situation quickly," the U.S. Interests Section in Havana, which Washington maintains instead of an
embassy, wrote in a Wednesday statement. In Washington, State Department spokesman Patrick Ventrell termed cooperation as
"extensive," but said the case should not be taken as a sign of political opening. "I'm not sure I would read into it one way or another,"
he said. "This was cooperation on a specific law enforcement matter." Diplomats agree, and point to less dramatic examples of
U.S. and Cuban diplomats must get authorization to travel outside each
other's capitals, something that was once used as a cudgel by both sides to get revenge for
political slights. Lately, they say, permission has been granted on an almost routine basis.
cooperation as more germane.
American diplomats have travelled increasingly throughout the island, for work and play. For its part, Cuba's top envoy in Washington,
Jose Cabanas, recently visited Georgia, Houston and New Orleans, among other places. At times, diplomatic cooperation has reached
levels that would be surprising even between friendly nations. During last month's World Baseball Classic, a U.S. Interests Section
official personally carried emergency visas for several Cuban coaches and support staff on a trip to Guam and handed them off to a
Tokyo-based colleague, a U.S. official told AP. At the time, Cuba was playing its early round games in Japan and would have needed
the visas if the team had advanced to the semifinals in San Francisco. Several weeks ago, U.S. Consul General Timothy Roche spoke
with Cuba's Communist Party daily Granma about American immigration policy, believed to be the first time in 10 years that statemedia carried such an interview with U.S. diplomatic staff. Even on thornier issues like the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay —
which Cuba has denounced as a torture camp — the two militaries hold occasional joint exercises to prepare for brush fires and other
American
and Cuban energy and environmental officials have for years worked past the political
morass and established strong working bonds.
emergencies. Jorge Pinon, a leading expert on Cuba's oil industry and research fellow at the University of Texas, said
Adv. 1, Super-hurricanes
1NC
1. Plan can’t solve—Hurricane predictions inaccurate
Bialik 09. Carl Bialik- staff writer for the Wall Street Journal, April 29th 2009
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124096550135766317.html?mod=dist_smartbrief
If analysts did no better than predicting stock prices would equal the average of the last five years, one would
hope they'd find a different career -- or at least take their work private while they refined their techniques.
¶
That's the sorry track record of climatologists
who each year predict the number of
hurricanes that will threaten the Caribbean and Southeastern U.S. before the storm
season begins on June 1. Yet their seasonal forecasts continue to garner headlines in the
spring as reliably as groundhogs and their shadows.¶ In early 2005, predictions ranged from 11 to
14 tropical storms -- compared with an average of 14 in the prior five years -- with seven or eight hurricanes,
compared with a five-year average of seven. The storm season instead brought Katrina, Rita and 13 other
The forecasts' flaws were evident before that big miss
and have continued since then. The next two years they overshot; last year, at last,
they were right in predicting a typical year. This year, most forecasters are calling for belowaverage activity. "It's as if they're presenting their data in the middle of a study, before
they reach their conclusions," says Robert S. Young, director of the program for the study of developed
hurricanes among the 27 named storms.
¶
¶
shorelines at Western Carolina University. "They should keep doing what they're doing, and they shouldn't tell
anyone about it until they've figured it out." Yet even as academics, government agencies and private industry
crowd into the forecasting arena, they're bumping up against obstacles that may render accurate forecasting so
far ahead of time impossible. Some forecasts are based on past years with similar patterns, but the climatology
¶
record doesn't go back far enough to lend much confidence . And it's hard to even detect these
weather patterns far in advance -- even giant patterns that determine the intensity of
a season. El Niño, or warming of Pacific Ocean waters, tends to suppress hurricanes; La Niña, unusually cold
Pacific waters, tends to increase storm activity. Yet neither of these seasonal effects can be predicted with much
reliability before the late spring. "Until you really get into the spring and the weather patterns start to set up,
it's really hard to get any kind of decent forecast as to what's going to go on in the summer and fall," says Chuck
Watson, who works on forecasts of damage from hurricanes. Anytime before spring, "You might as well throw a
dart." But why publish press releases and even, in some cases, hold press conferences? "Part of the reason we
even do our press conference and release our data is, well, everyone else is," Mr. Watson says. He adds that
research funders generally encourage the publicizing of the fruits of their grant money: "From a funding and
¶
¶
Even if the
forecasts were dead-on, they wouldn't do emergency managers much good. The
number of named tropical storms and hurricanes can have little to do with the
damage they create: Hurricane Andrew struck in 1992, a year of below-average storm counts. "The total
research standpoint, you've almost got to release it," Mr. Watson says. "It's part of that game."
¶
number of storms is a red herring," says Joe Bastardi, chief long-range and hurricane forecaster for
AccuWeather.com. "It's a joke." Many forecasts include more useful measures such as the number of storms
that hit land or the accumulated cyclone energy, which quantifies total storm intensity. But news reports often
focus on the more-accessible predictions of storm counts. The industries most affected by hurricanes focus
more closely on the short-term forecasting of individual storms, an endeavor with much higher accuracy.
¶
2. SQ Solves—Pollution
Smith ’13. Meredith Bennett-Smith- staff writer for the Huffington Post, June 25th 2013
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/25/pollution-reduced-hurricanes-aerosol-air_n_3497601.html
Could the planet's dirty air have been keeping hurricanes partially in check? That's the startling conclusion of a
new climate study, published in Nature Geoscience on Monday, that looked at the effects of man-made aerosols
(particles suspended in atmosphere) on the North Atlantic's climate in the 20th Century. Conducted by
¶
¶
Britain's Meteorological Office, researchers used climate models to weigh pollutants against tropical
storms. "Researchers found that aerosols make clouds brighter, causing them to reflect
more energy from the sun back into space," according to a release published by the Met Office.
"This impacts ocean temperatures and tropical circulation patterns, effectively making
conditions less favourable for hurricanes." In other words, the study "raises the possibility
that man-made particles may be linked to changing number of hurricanes" -- just not
in the way many people might have assumed, climate scientist and lead study author Dr. Nick
¶
¶
Dunstone told The Huffington Post in a phone interview. While aerosols do occur naturally, the study focused
on North America and Europe,where the particles were most likely to be man-made as a result of fossil fuel
consumption, notes the Agence France-Presse. Using a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model, the
researchers studied historical data and noticed that there were fewer storms during periods of unfettered
industrial activity (1930 to 1960), and an upswing in hurricane frequency in the 1990s, following the introduction
of governmental clean-air initiatives. Dunstone acknowledged to HuffPost that the study may be controversial,
but he stressed that the need to reduce aerosol particles far outweighs any effects on storm frequency. Aerosol
reduction has many important and positive effects, including improving human health and decreasing severe
¶
¶
¶
droughts, he said. In an effort to get a second opinion, The New York
Times tracked down several
scientists not involved with the British team. All the Times' sources said the Met
Office's conclusions were "entirely plausible." However, the paper reported that there are several
¶
other theories that address the potential causes of tropical storms not linked to pollution, such as "large-scale
natural oscillations in the ocean circulation". It's worth noting that there continues to be some debate in the
scientific community over the link between global warming and hurricanes, according to The Telegraph. While
language approved by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007 did claim that man-made
greenhouse gasses were "more likely than not" making hurricanes stronger, this language did not specifically
address hurricane frequency. Ultimately, the Met Office's research proves the complexity of global climates, and
the need for ongoing study of the ways greenhouse gasses and aerosols affect climate systems. "It's not
simple," Dunstone said. "This study really highlights that man may be having more of an influence on our
regional climate than was previously thought."
¶
¶
¶
3. Hurricanes coming less frequently
Goddard ’13. Steven Goddard- Feburary 22nd 2013
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/02/22/consecutive-years-with-no-hurricanes-coming-more-frequently/
Since the Civil War, there have only been four times when two consecutive years
produced no hurricanes in the US. Two of them have been since the year 2000. ¶ 19301931 , 1981-1982, 2000-2001 and 2009-2010¶ NOAA would consider the lack of extreme
weather to be extreme.
4. We can adapt to hurricanes
Michaels 7 Patrick J, Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at CATO Institute, “Taming the Hurricane” CATO Institute, 8/28
http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/taming-hurricane PS)
Anyone concerned about climate change should take a lesson from Hurricane Dean. Even
if storms like this become more
frequent in the future, people will adapt and survive if they have the financial resources. How silly it seems
to take those resources away in futile attempts to “stop global warming” — which no one even knows how to do — when they could save lives
by allowing people to adapt to our ever-changing climate.¶ The truth is that money
in the hand is a lot more useful than
treaties on paper when it comes to sparing yourself and your family from bad weather. So people truly worried about
climate change should be cheerleading for the global trade and economic development that will
continue allowing us to adapt.¶
Extension – Less Hurricanes
Pollution is suppressing major storms
Gillis 13. Justin Gillis- staff writer for the New York Times, June 24th 2013
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/25/science/earth/air-pollution-may-have-suppressed-storms-research-suggests.html
to the ever-growing list of ways humanity seems to have altered the earth, add another candidate: Air pollution
may have had a major soothing influence on storm cycles in the North Atlantic. ¶ That is the
finding of a paper published this week, suggesting that industrial pollution from North America and
Europe through much of the 20th century may have altered clouds in ways that cooled the
ocean surface. That, in turn, may have suppressed storms, and particularly major hurricanes,
below the level that would have existed in a purely natural environment. ¶ if the authors are right, the
upturn in storms over the last couple of decades may be no accident. It could, instead, be at least partly a consequence of the
clean air acts that have reduced pollution around the North Atlantic basin, thus returning the storm cycles to their more natural
state.
Increased wind is causing less intense hurricanes
UPI 07. United Press International, April 17 2007
th
http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2007/04/18/Climate-model-suggests-weaker-hurricanes/UPI-52161176911796/
U.S. climate model simulation suggests anticipated increased wind shear over the
tropical Atlantic Ocean might inhibit hurricane development. The study by scientists at the Rosenstiel
A
School of Marine and Atmospheric Science at the University of Miami suggests a robust increase in wind shear will develop over that area
researchers say that might reduce hurricane development and
intensification. While other research has linked global warming to an increase in
hurricane intensity, the study is believed the first to identify changes in wind shear
that could counteract such effects. However, the study did identify other regions, such as the western tropical Pacific,
due to global warming. The
where global warming might cause the environment to become more favorable for hurricanes. The study -- conducted in collaboration with
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J. -- is reported in the current
issue of the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
Less Hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean
WCR ’10. World Climate Report, Janurary 21st 2010
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2010/01/21/more-or-less-intensehurricanes/
A new article has just been published in the January 22, 2010 issue of Science magazine which finds that
there will be a large increase in the frequency of the strongest hurricanes in the
Atlantic basin as the climate changes from increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. But a closer look
at the results shows that this model-based result is produced by a hurricane model
which under-simulates the frequency of strong storms in today’s climate. And that,
despite the projected increase in intense hurricanes, the frequency of those storms
projected by the model to occur by the end of the 21st century is considerably less
than the frequency of intense hurricanes actually observed in the current climate. If
the model doesn’t work for the present, why should we trust it for the future?¶ The
Science article summarizes the research findings of hurricane modelers Morris Bender and colleagues from Princeton’s
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Old Dominion University’s Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography.¶ Bender
and colleagues attempt to overcome this limitation by using a series of models with progressively more spatial resolution
and each better designed to model hurricane development. They took the output of future climate conditions produced by
the GCMs, and fed that into a more detailed model which could create hurricanes, and then fed those hurricanes into an
even more detailed model which could forecast the development, track, and intensity of the storms. Comparing the
hurricanes created from environmental conditions at the end of the 21st century (assuming a mid-range emission scenario,
SRES A1B), with those created from the actual conditions during the period 1980-2006, allowed the researchers to assess
how the behavior of Atlantic hurricanes may potentially change as a result of anthropogenic influences on the earth’s
climate.¶ In
general they reported the following findings:¶ 1) the total number of
hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin will decline in the future by about one-third;¶
2) the total number of very intense hurricanes (category 4 and 5) will increase in the future by 81% while the frequency of
the most intense storms will increase by 250%;¶ 3) the total damage in the U.S. from hurricanes will increase by about 30% as
the increase in the frequency of intense storms more than makes up for the decline in the total number of hurricanes; ¶ 4)
that changes in hurricane characteristics observed over the past 30 years don’t match well with their model expectations,
sugegsting that “global warming: is not the cause; and¶ 5) that most of the expected changes in hurricane characteristics will
be undetectable until late until at least the second half of this century.
Hurricanes Aren’t Getting Stronger
Impact denied—Hurricanes only get a bit worse
Chameides 8 (Bill, dean of Duke's Nicholas School of the Environment, “Are Hurricanes Growing
Stronger?” Huffington post, Sept. 9, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bill-chameides/are-hurricanesgrowing-st_b_124919.html)
Some scientists challenged the MIT and GT results (see here [pdf] and here [pdf]). They argued that the historical
data were not accurate enough to infer a long-term trend. You see, the methods used to observe
hurricanes have changed over time (initially airplanes tracked hurricanes; now both airplanes and satellites track them); the
way we analyze data has also changed. Some evidence in the 1970s and 1980s shows a tendency to
underestimate storm intensity relative to the 1990s and 2000s, and as a result, some argued, the upward trend in
hurricane strength inferred from the data was an artifact.¶ The debate over hurricanes and global
warming has raged in the scientific community ever since. Now researchers from Florida State University and the
University of Wisconsin-Madison -- James Elsner and colleagues -- have added what I think will prove to be a very significant contribution to the
debate. Their contribution falls on the side of the MIT and GT studies.¶ To avoid the issue of data inconsistency, Elsner at al. limited their study
to satellite observations since the 1980s. Moreover, they only used data that had been reanalyzed in a uniform, consistent manner.¶ The
researchers found no increase in the total number of storms worldwide -- this is consistent with the MIT and GT
studies. And using the maximum wind speed over the lifetime of a storm as a metric for intensity, they found only a slight increase
(with a good deal of statistical uncertainty) in the average intensity of storms worldwide.
Warming – Not Anthropogenic
Newest studies prove that CO2 is not anthropogenic – emissions from fossil fuels only
stay in the atmosphere for five years and natural forcings are more important
Marohasy 9 (Jennifer, senior fellow at the Australian think tank the Institute of Public Affairs, PhD in
biology from the University of Queensland. Cites research from Robert H. Essenhigh, Department of
Mechanical Engineering at Ohio State University, “Carbon Dioxide in Atmosphere 5-15 Years Only” 4-1709. http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2009/04/carbon-dioxide-in-atmosphere-5-15-years-only/)
If carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels only stayed in the atmosphere a few years, say five years, then
there may not be quite the urgency currently associated with anthropogenic global warming. Indeed it might be argued that the problem
of elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide could be easily reversed as soon as alternative fuel sources where found and/or
just before a tipping point was reached. The general consensus, however, is not five years, but rather more in the range of 50
to 200 years.
But in a new technical paper to be published in the journal ‘Energy and Fuels’, Robert Essenhigh from Ohio State University,
throws doubt on this consensus. Using the combustion/chemical-engineering Perfectly Stirred Reactor (PSR) mixing structure, or 0-D Box, as
the basis of a model for residence time in the atmosphere, he explains
that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels
are likely to have a residence time of between 5 and 15 years. He further concludes that the current trend of rising
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is not from anthropogenic sources, but due to natural factors. Here’s
the abstract: The driver for this study is the wide-ranging published values of the CO2 atmospheric residence time (RT), , with the values
differing by more than an order of magnitude, where the significance of the difference relates to decisions on whether: (1) to attempt control
of combustion-sourced (anthropogenic) CO2 emissions, if >100 years; or (2) not to attempt control, if ~10 years. This given difference is
particularly evident in the IPCC First (1990) Climate Change Report where, in the opening Policymakers Summary of the Report, the RT is stated
to be in the range 50 to 200 years; and, (largely) based on that, it was also concluded in the Report and from subsequent related studies that
the current rising level of CO2 was due to combustion of fossil fuels, thus carrying the, now widely-accepted, rider that CO2 emissions from
combustion should therefore be curbed. However, the
actual data in the text of the IPCC Report separately states a
value of 4 years.
The differential of these two times is then clearly identified in the relevant supporting-documents of the report as being,
separately: (1) a long-term (~100 years) adjustment or response time to accommodate imbalance increases in CO2 emissions from all sources;
and, (2) the actual RT in the atmosphere, of ~4 years.
As check on that differentiation, and its alternative outcome, the definition and determination of RT thus defined the need for and focus of this
study. In this study, using the combustion/chemical-engineering Perfectly Stirred Reactor (PSR) mixing structure, or 0-D Box, for the modelbasis, as alternative to the more-commonly used Global Circulation Models (GCM’s), to define and determine the RT in the atmosphere, then,
using data from the IPCC and other sources for model validation and numerical determination,
model-application in this context; and (2) from
the data: (1) support the validity of the PSR
the analysis, provide (quasi-equilibrium) residence times for CO2 of:
~5 years carrying C12; and of ~16 years carrying C14, with both values essentially in agreement with the IPCC short-term (4-year) value,
separately, in agreement with most other data sources and notably a (1998) listing by Segalstad of 36 other
published values, also in the range 5 to 15 years. Additionally, the analytical results then also support
the IPCC analysis and data on the longer “adjustment time” (~100 years) governing the long-term rising
“quasi-equilibrium” concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. For principal verification of the adopted PSR model, the
data source used was outcome of the injection of excess 14CO2 into the atmosphere during the A-bomb tests in the 1950’s/60’s which
generated an initial increase of approximately 1000% above the normal value, and which then declined substantially exponentially with time,
With the
short (5-15 year) RT results shown to be in quasi-equilibrium, this then supports the (independentlybased) conclusion that the long-term (~100-year) rising atmospheric CO2 concentration is not from
anthropogenic sources but, in accordance with conclusions from other studies, is most probably the
outcome of the rising atmospheric temperature which is due to other natural factors. This further
supports the conclusion that global warming is not anthropogenically driven as outcome of combustion.
The economic and political significance of that conclusion will be self-evident.
with = 16 years, in accordance with the (unsteady-state) prediction from, and jointly providing validation for, the PSR analysis.
Warming isn’t human induced—empirical evidence that Co2 doesn’t correlate with
global temperatures
Easterbrook 10—geology professor @ Western Washington
(Don, geology professor emeritus at Western Washington University
[http://myweb.wwu.edu/dbunny/research/global/easterbrook_climate-cycle-evidence.pdf] EVIDENCE
OF THE CAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING AND COOLING: RECURRING GLOBAL, DECADAL, CLIMATE CYCLES
RECORDED BY GLACIAL FLUCTUATIONS, ICE CORES, OCEAN TEMPERATURES, HISTORIC MEASUREMENTS
AND SOLAR VARIATIONS)
1945 to 1977 cool period with soaring CO2 emissions. Global temperatures began to cool in the mid–1940’s
at the point when CO2 emissions began to soar (Fig. 4). Global temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere
dropped about 0.5° C (0.9° F) from the mid-1940s until 1977 and temperatures globally cooled about 0.2° C
(0.4° F) (Fig. 1). Many of the world’s glaciers advanced during this time and recovered a good deal of the ice
lost during the 1915–1945 warm period. However, cooling during this period was not as deep as in the
preceding cool period (1880 to 1915). Many examples of glacial recession during the past century cited in
the news media show contrasting terminal positions beginning with the maximum extent at the end of a
~30 year cool period (1915 or 1977) and ending with the minimum extent of the recent 20 year warm
period (1998). A much better gauge of the effect of climate on glaciers would be to compare glacier
terminal positions between the ends of successive cool periods or the ends of successive warm periods.
Figure 4 shows CO2 that even though emissions from 1945 to 1977 soared, global temperature dropped
during that 30–year period. If CO2 causes global warming, temperature should have risen, rather than
declined, strongly suggesting that rising CO2.did not cause significant global warming.
Global warming not real natural causes
Newman ’13. Maurice Newman- former chairman of the Australian Securities Exchange. July 3rd, 2013
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/climate-change-science-hasbecome-an-expensive-smokescreen/story-e6frgd0x-1226673364237
He didn't expect the remaining emails to hold big surprises and observed, "Even if I have it all wrong and these scientists had a
good reason to mislead us (instead of making a strong case with real data) I think disseminating the truth is still the safest bet
by far."¶ Indeed it is.¶ That
so many scientists have found it necessary to mislead us on
anthropogenic global warming is an admission of political intent and the absence of a strong
scientific case.¶ Since the release of the original Climategate emails, more revelations have come to light to support this
contention.¶ The Delinquent Teenager exposed how non-government organisations such as Greenpeace and WWF, captured
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The book provides irrefutable evidence that what had once been accepted as
the "gold standard" of climate science was nothing of the sort.¶ There was a second release of damaging Climategate emails and
alarmist headlined research that had to be hastily withdrawn (without headlines) for want of rigour. There was another hockey
stick that admitted groundless data and dire warnings of extreme weather events without evidence that a new normal had
begun.¶ Despite this, the voices of alarm and authority have been unable to hide the reality that,
statistically, there has
been no increase in global temperatures since 1997, despite an 8.3 percent rise in
atmospheric CO2. For those who want to cite warming in some records, all datasets agree there has been none since
2000. In fact since 2002 a slight cooling has been observed. Who knew? Well, not the warmist scientists. ¶ Indeed, the ABC
reported: "A study forecasts that global warming will set in with a vengeance after 2009, with at least half of the following five
years expected to be hotter than 1998, which was the warmest year on record." Wrong. Even recent claims of an "angry"
Australian summer were not validated by satellite data.¶ Roy Spencer, from the University of Alabama, compared 73 warming
predictions to actual data across 34 years. Ending in 2012, he found an extraordinary discrepancy between what the models
predicted and the actual observations of satellites and balloons. The predictions were all strongly biased to the upside. As he
commented, "I frankly don't see how the IPCC can keep claiming that the models 'are not inconsistent with the observations'.
Any sane person can see otherwise."¶ Scientists have long
searched for a "hot spot" in the atmosphere.
When it could not be found, some said it must be in the oceans. Yet, since the deployment in 2003 of
3000 Argo floats (the acme of ocean temperature measurement), researchers still haven't found it.¶ While CO2 may be a
greenhouse gas, it seems that natural forces dominate climate change, not mankind's
emissions. Henrik Svensmark's theory of cosmoclimatology (the role of cosmic rays) may be right. With such mounting
¶
evidence it is hard to remain agnostic. Yet, rather than undertake a thorough rethink of US climate change policy, President
Barack Obama prefers to champion discredited research to justify more initiatives that will squander the US's newly found
natural gas competitiveness. He ignores the experience of Germany, the world's emissions abatement champion.
Warming – Theories Flawed
Global Warming theories incorrect- Climate satellite data proves
National Review 7/30/11 (http://www.nationalreview.com/planet-gore/273239/nasa-studyshatters-climate-alarmists-assumptions-mario-loyola “NASA Study Shatters Climate Alarmists’
Assumptions”)
Still, I assumed that at least the climate scientists had some firm idea of how much heat a certain amount of carbon dioxide would trap
directly and indirectly through increased humidity and cloud cover. Well
now it turns out that even on this most
essential assumption of all their claims, they didn’t know what they were talking about. An
explosive study based on NASA satellite data collected over the past decade shows that the
planet’s atmosphere traps far less heat than any of the most frequently cited models presumed.
The study, by Dr. Roy Spencer and Dr. William Braswell of the University of Alabama, was published in the peer-reviewed journal Remote
Sensing. This is from the press release: “The
satellite observations suggest there is much more energy lost to
space during and after warming than the climate models show,” Spencer said. “There is a huge
discrepancy between the data and the forecasts that is especially big over the oceans.” Not only
does the atmosphere release more energy than previously thought, it starts releasing it earlier in
a warming cycle. The models forecast that the climate should continue to absorb solar energy
until a warming event peaks. Instead, the satellite data shows the climate system starting to shed energy more than three
months before the typical warming event reaches its peak. “At the peak, satellites show energy being lost while
climate models show energy still being gained,” Spencer said. This is the first time scientists have looked at radiative
balances during the months before and after these transient temperature peaks. Applied to long-term climate change, the research
might indicate that the climate is less sensitive to warming due to increased carbon dioxide
concentrations in the atmosphere than climate modelers have theorized. A major underpinning
of global warming theory is that the slight warming caused by enhanced greenhouse gases should
change cloud cover in ways that cause additional warming, which would be a positive feedback
cycle.
Warming – Not inevitable
Not inevitable – cuts solve
Somerville 11 – Professor of Oceanography @ UCSD
Richard Somerville, Distinguished Professor Emeritus and Research Professor at Scripps Institution of
Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, Coordinating Lead Author in Working Group I
for the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 3-8-2011,
“CLIMATE SCIENCE AND EPA'S GREENHOUSE GAS REGULATIONS,” CQ Congressional Testimony, Lexis
Thus, atmospheric CO2 concentrations are already at levels predicted to lead to global warming
of between 2.0 and 2.4C. The conclusion from both the IPCC and subsequent analyses is blunt
and stark - immediate and dramatic emission reductions of all greenhouse gases are urgently
needed if the 2 deg C (or 3.6 deg F) limit is to be respected. This scientific conclusion illustrates a key point,
which is that it will be governments that will decide, by actions or inactions, what level of climate
change they regard as tolerable. This choice by governments may be affected by risk tolerance, priorities,
economics, and other considerations, but in the end it is a choice that humanity as a whole, acting
through national governments, will make. Science and scientists will not and should not make that choice.
After governments have set a tolerable limit of climate change, however, climate science can then provide
valuable information about what steps will be required to keep climate change within that limit.
Warming – No correlations
Past climate trends prove no correlation
Spencer 10 —former head climate scientist @ NASA
(Roy, principal research scientist at the University of Alabama and former senior scientist for climate
studies at NASA. He now leads the US science team for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer
for EOS on NASA’s Aqua Satellite “The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the
World’s Top Climate Scientists,” pg 29)
A truth that was conveniently left out of Mr. Gore's presentation is related to an issue that I will emphasize
throughout this book: cause versus effect. Mr. Gore, whether he knew it or not, was assuming that the
hundreds of thousands of years of C02 variations were causing the temperature variations-and not the
other way around. But as the climate researchers who produce the Vostok dataset well know, there is an
average 8oo-year lag between these two variables, with the temperature changes preceding the C02
changes. At face value, this would suggest that the temperature changes caused the C02 changes. I will
discuss temperature causing atmospheric C02 changes more in Chapter 7.
Warming – Cooling now
Cooling is coming now – it’s fast and outweighs the effects of warming
Carlin 11 – PhD in Economics from MIT
Alan Carlin, PhD in Economics, former Director @ EPA and fellow @ RAND, 3-2011, “ A Multidisciplinary,
Science-Based Approach to the Economics of Climate Change,” International Journal of Environmental
Research and Public Health, Vol. 8
On the contrary, the evidence is that during interglacial periods over the last 3 million years the
risks are on the temperature downside, not the upside. As we approach the point where the
Holocene has reached the historical age when a new ice age has repeatedly started in past
glacial cycles, this appears likely to be the only CAGW effect that mankind should currently
reasonably be concerned about. Earth is currently in an interglacial period quite similar to
others before and after each of the glacial periods that Earth has experienced over the last 3
million years. During these interglacial periods there is currently no known case where global
temperatures suddenly and dramatically warmed above interglacial temperatures, such as we are now
experiencing, to very much warmer temperatures. There have, of course, been interglacial periods that
have experienced slightly higher temperatures, but none that we know of that after 10,000 years
experienced a sudden catastrophic further increase in global temperatures. The point here is that there
does not appear to be instability towards much warmer temperatures during interglacial
periods. There is rather instability towards much colder temperatures, particularly during the
later stages of interglacial periods. In fact, Earth has repeatedly entered new ice ages about
every 100,000 years during recent cycles, and interglacial periods have lasted about 10,000
years. We are currently very close to the 10,000 year mark for the current interglacial period. So
if history is any guide, the main worry should be that of entering a new ice age, with its growing
ice sheets, that would probably wipe out civilization in the temperate regions of the Northern
Hemisphere—not global warming. The economic damages from a new ice age would indeed be
large, and almost certainly catastrophic. Unfortunately, it is very likely to occur sooner or later.
Warming – Consensus Flawed
Claims of scientific consensus are false—opposing views don’t get published because
the peer review process is flawed and politically motivated
Spencer 10—former head climate scientist @ NASA
(Roy, principal research scientist at the University of Alabama and former senior scientist for climate
studies at NASA. He now leads the US science team for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer
for EOS on NASA’s Aqua Satellite “The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the
World’s Top Climate Scientists,” pg XVI)
The primary goal of climate research is no longer the advancement of knowledge; it is instead the
protection and dissemination of the IPCC party line. The peer review process for getting research proposals
funded and scientific papers published is no longer objective, but is instead short-circuited by zealots
adhering to their faith that humans now control the fate of Earth's climate. Scientific papers that claim all
kinds of supposedly dire consequences of anthropogenic climate change are uncritically accepted and
rushed to publication, while any papers that cast doubt on the premise of a human-controlled climate
system are rejected. The global warming issue has accumulated so much political and financial baggage that
it will now be extremely difficult to budge the "scientific consensus" away from what a handful of
bureaucrats and politically savvy scientists have decided the scientific consensus should be. As I described
in my first book Climate Confusion, scientists are just as prone to bias as anyone else, and when it comes to
global warming it seems that everyone has biases and vested interests.
Warming consensus is false—atmospheric models
Spencer and Braswell 11 (Roy Spencer, Former Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA, and Danny Braswell, Team leader
for NASA’s qua satellite, Principal Research Scientists at the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama, 7/25/11 “On the
Misdiagnosis of Surface Temperature Feedbacks from Variations in Earth’s Radiant Energy Balance”, Remote Sensing vol 3, og 1603-1613 *This
study was funded entirely by the U.S. Department of Energy, not an oil company)
The sensitivity of the climate system to an imposed radiative imbalance remains the largest
source of uncertainty in projections of future anthropogenic climate change. Here we present further evidence
that this uncertainty from an observational perspective is largely due to the masking of the radiative
feedback signal by internal radiative forcing, probably due to natural cloud variations. That these internal radiative forcings
exist and likely corrupt feedback diagnosis is demonstrated with lag regression analysis of satellite and coupled climate model data,
Abstract:
interpreted with a simple forcing-feedback model. While the satellite-based metrics for the period 2000–2010 depart substantially in the
direction of lower climate sensitivity from those similarly computed from coupled climate models, we find that, with traditional methods, it is
not possible to accurately quantify this discrepancy in terms of the feedbacks which determine climate sensitivity. It is concluded that 1, due
primarily to the inability to distinguish between radiative forcing and radiative feedback in satellite radiative budget observations. The
magnitude of the surface temperature response of the climate system to an imposed radiative energy imbalance remains just as uncertain
today as it was decades ago [1]. Over
20 coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models tracked by the Intergovernmental
a wide range of warming estimates in response to the infrared radiative
forcing theoretically expected from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions [2]. From a modeling standpoint,
this lack of progress is evidence of the complexity of the myriad atmospheric processes that combine
to determine the sign and magnitude of feedbacks. It is also due to our inability to quantify feedbacks
in the real climate system, a contentious issue with a wide range of published feedback diagnoses [1] and disagreements over the
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produce
ability of existing methods to diagnose feedback [3,4]. Spencer and Braswell ([5] hereafter SB10) discussed what they believed to be the
primary difficulty in diagnosing feedback from variations in the Earth’s radiative energy balance between absorbed shortwave (SW) solar
radiation and thermally emitted longwave (LW) infrared (IR) radiation. SB10 attributed the difficulty to the contamination of the feedback
signature by unknown levels of time-varying, internally generated radiative forcing; for example, ‘unforced’ natural variations in cloud cover. In
simple terms, radiative
changes resulting from temperature change (feedback) cannot be easily disentangled
from those causing a temperature change (forcing). Much can be learned about the interaction between
radiative forcing and feedback through a simple time dependent forcing-feedback model of
temperature variations away from a state of energy equilibrium, Cp dΔT/dt = S(t) + N(t) − λΔT (1) Equation (1) states that time-varying
sources of non-radiative forcing S and radiative forcing N cause a climate system with bulk heat capacity Cp to undergo a temperature change with
time away from its equilibrium state (dΔT/dt), but with a net radiative feedback ‘restoring force’ (−λΔT) acting to stabilize the system. For the interannual temperature climate variability we
will address here, the heat capacity Cp in Equation (1) is assumed to represent the oceanic mixed layer. (Note that if Cp is put inside the time differential term, the equation then becomes one
for changes in the heat content of the system with time. While it is possible that feedback can be more accurately diagnosed by analyzing changes in the heat content of the ocean over time
[6], our intent here is to examine the problems inherent in diagnosing feedback based upon surface temperature changes.) Radiative forcings (N) of temperature change could arise, for
example, from natural fluctuations in cloud cover which are not the direct or indirect result of a temperature change (that is, not due to feedback) [7]. Examples of non-radiative forcing (S)
would be fluctuations in the heat exchange between the mixed layer and deep ocean, or between the mixed layer and the overlying atmosphere. Importantly, satellite radiative budget
instruments measure the combined influence of radiative forcing (N) and radiative feedback (−λΔT) in unknown proportions. Although not usually considered a feedback per se, the most
fundamental component of the net feedback parameter λ is the direct dependence of the rate of IR emission on temperature, estimated to be about 3.3 W m−2 K−1 in the global average [8].
This ‘Planck’ or ‘Stefan-Boltzmann’ response stabilizes the climate system against runaway temperature changes, and represents a baseline from which feedbacks are traditionally referenced.
Positive feedbacks in the climate system reduce the net feedback parameter below 3.3, while negative feedbacks increase it above 3.3. Here we will deal with the net feedback parameter
exclusively, as it includes the combined influence of all climate feedbacks, as well as the Planck effect. The larger the net feedback parameter λ, the smaller the temperature response to an
imposed energy imbalance N will be; the smaller λ is, the greater the temperature response will be. A negative value for λ would indicate a climate system whose temperature is unstable to
radiative forcing. The coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models tracked by the IPCC have diagnosed long-term net feedback parameters ranging from λ = 0.89 for the most sensitive
model, MIROC-Hires, to λ = 1.89 for the least sensitive model, FGOALS [8]. Since this range is below the Planck response of 3.3 W m−2 K−1, all of the IPCC models therefore exhibit net
positive feedbacks. Also, since all climate models have net feedback parameters greater than zero, none of the climate models are inherently unstable to perturbations. It is worth
reiterating that satellite radiative budget instruments measure the combined effect of the radiative terms on the RHS of Equation (1), that is, the radiative forcing term N and the feedback
profound impact on feedback diagnosis is easily demonstrated with a simple time dependent model based
upon Equation (1). If we assume Cp consistent with a 25 m deep oceanic mixed layer, a net feedback parameter λ = 3, and a sinusoidal forcing
term (− λΔT). That the presence of N can have a
with period of one year, the temperature response shown in Figure 1 will result. Figure 1. Simple forcing-feedback model demonstration
that satellite radiative budget instrument measurements of Net radiative flux (forcing + feedback) are very different from what is needed to
diagnose the net feedback parameter (feedback only). In response to radiative forcing, the model ocean warms, which in turn causes a net
radiative feedback response. Significant to our goal of diagnosing feedback, the net feedback response to a temperature change is always
smaller than the radiative forcing which caused it, owing to the heat capacity of the system, until radiative equilibrium is once again restored.
At that point the radiative feedback equals the radiative forcing. Unfortunately,
in the real climate system radiative
forcings are continually changing, which means the feedback response will in general be smaller than
the radiative forcing. The presence of this radiative forcing tends to confound the accurate
determination of feedback.
Adv. 1, US Econ Scenario
1NC
1. No link -- The economy will bounce back from hurricane damage
Rand 10 (Rand Labor and Population, “The Workforce and Economic Recovery”
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_briefs/2010/RAND_RB9531.pdf)
Considering aggregate labor force patterns for all individuals ages 25–64 in the Katrina-affected states,
the researchers found relatively short-term negative labor market consequences followed by
eventual recovery. These findings are consistent with prior studies of aggregate labor market effects
following hurricanes and other natural disasters such as earthquakes and tornados. For example,
between 2003 and August 2005 when Katrina struck, the labor force participation rate and the
employment rate were relatively stable in the United States, although they were generally lower in
the South and even lower in the Katrina affected states (with the exception of Florida). Both rates
decreased in Louisiana, Alabama, and, to a lesser extent, Florida directly after the hurricane. However,
by the end of 2006, labor force participation and employment had rebounded to pre-Katrina rates,
or in the case of Louisiana, to higher rates. Mississippi did not fare as well, with labor force
participation and employment rates remaining below pre-Katrina levels by several percentage points
one year after the storm. The patterns for the unemployment rate, which had been on the decline
before the hurricane, were more complex across the four affected states. Nevertheless, with the
exception of Mississippi, the affected states showed a general pattern of higher rates of
unemployment after the hurricane followed by a convergence toward pre-hurricane levels by 2006.
2. Turn -- Economic growth from hurricanes could outweigh costs
Hagenbaugh 4 (Staff writer for USA Today—cites economists across globe) Posted 9/26/2004 10:03 PM
Updated 9/27/2004 1:57
PMBy Barbara Hagenbaugh, USA TODAY
Although natural disasters spread destruction and economic pain to a wide variety of businesses, for
some, it can mean a burst in activity and revenue.¶ For that reason, economists tallying the numbers
expect the hurricanes will be neutral in their effect on the U.S. economy, or may even give it a slight
boost, particularly because of an expected reconstruction boom in the already red-hot construction
industry.¶ "It's a perverse thing ... there's real pain," says Steve Cochrane, director of regional economics
at Economy.com, a consulting firm in West Chester, Pa. "But from an economic point of view, it is a
plus."¶ Cochrane estimates that in Florida, the state hit hardest by the storms, 20,000 jobs will be
created that otherwise would not have been. Two-thirds of those jobs will be in construction. The rest
will be in areas including utilities, retailing, insurance and business services. Another 2,500 jobs will
likely be added in Mobile, Ala., according to Economy.com.¶ Economic consulting firm Global Insight
estimates the hurricanes at most will shave two-tenths of a percentage point off gross domestic
product, the broadest gauge of U.S. economic activity, in the third or fourth quarters. That will be offset
by reconstruction activity.¶ "Generally ... you have a short-term loss in productive activity. ... Then
maybe a quarter or so later you get a very significant surge in construction activity," says Phil Hopkins,
an economist at Global Insight.
3. Impact denied—Economy resilient
Zakaria 9 Fareed Zakaria (editor of Newsweek International) December 2009 “The Secrets of Stability,”
http://www.newsweek.com/id/226425/page/2]
One year ago, the world seemed as if it might be coming apart. The global financial system, which had
fueled a great expansion of capitalism and trade across the world, was crumbling. All the certainties of the age of globalization—about
the virtues of free markets, trade, and technology—were being called into question. Faith in the American model had collapsed. The financial
industry had crumbled. Once-roaring emerging markets like China, India, and Brazil were sinking. Worldwide trade was shrinking to a degree
Pundits whose bearishness had been vindicated predicted we were doomed to a long, painful
bust, with cascading failures in sector after sector, country after country. In a widely cited essay that
appeared in The Atlantic n this May, Simon Johnson, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, wrote: "The conventional
not seen since the 1930s.
wisdom among the elite is still that the current slump 'cannot be as bad as the Great Depression.' This view is wrong. What we face now could,
Others predicted that these economic shocks would lead to
political instability and violence in the worst-hit countries. At his confirmation hearing in February, the new U.S. director of
in fact, be worse than the Great Depression."
national intelligence, Adm. Dennis Blair, cautioned the Senate that "the financial crisis and global recession are likely to produce a wave of
economic crises in emerging-market nations over the next year." Hillary Clinton endorsed this grim view. And she was hardly alone. Foreign
Policy ran a cover story predicting serious unrest in several emerging markets. Of one thing everyone was sure: nothing would ever be the same
again. Not the financial industry, not capitalism, not globalization. One
year later, how much has the world really
changed? Well, Wall Street is home to two fewer investment banks (three, if you count Merrill Lynch). Some regional banks have gone bust.
There was some turmoil in Moldova and (entirely unrelated to the financial crisis) in Iran. Severe problems remain, like high unemployment in
the West, and we face new problems caused by responses to the crisis—soaring debt and fears of inflation. But overall,
things look
nothing like they did in the 1930s. The predictions of economic and political collapse have not
materialized at all. A key measure of fear and fragility is the ability of poor and unstable countries to borrow money on the debt
markets. So consider this: the sovereign bonds of tottering Pakistan have returned 168 percent so far this year. All this doesn't add up to a
recovery yet, but it does reflect a return to some level of normalcy. And that rebound has been so rapid that even the shrewdest observers
remain puzzled. "The question I have at the back of my head is 'Is that it?' " says Charles Kaye, the co-head of Warburg Pincus. "We had this
huge crisis, and now we're back to business as usual?"This revival did not happen because markets
managed to stabilize
themselves on their own. Rather, governments, having learned the lessons of the Great Depression, were determined not to repeat
the same mistakes once this crisis hit. By massively expanding state support for the economy—through central banks
and national treasuries—they buffered the worst of the damage. (Whether they made new mistakes in the process remains
to be seen.) The extensive social safety nets that have been established across the industrialized world also cushioned the pain felt by many.
Times are still tough, but things are nowhere near as bad as in the 1930s, when governments played a tiny role in national economies. It's true
that the massive state interventions of the past year may be fueling some new bubbles: the cheap cash and government guarantees provided
to banks, companies, and consumers have fueled some irrational exuberance in stock and bond markets. Yet these rallies also demonstrate the
return of confidence, and confidence is a very powerful economic force. When John Maynard Keynes described his own prescriptions for
economic growth, he believed government action could provide only a temporary fix until the real motor of the economy started cranking
again—the animal spirits of investors, consumers, and companies seeking risk and profit. Beyond all this, though, I believe there's
a
fundamental reason why we have not faced global collapse in the last year. It is the same reason that we
weathered the stock-market crash of 1987, the recession of 1992, the Asian crisis of 1997, the
Russian default of 1998, and the tech-bubble collapse of 2000. The current global economic
system is inherently more resilient than we think. The world today is characterized by three major
forces for stability, each reinforcing the other and each historical in nature.
4. Economic decline does NOT cause war
Miller, 2k (Morris, economist, adjunct professor in the University of Ottawa’s Faculty of
Administration, consultant on international development issues, former Executive Director and Senior
Economist at the World Bank, Winter, Interdisciplinary Science Reviews, Vol. 25, Iss. 4, “Poverty as a
cause of wars?” p. Proquest)
The question may be reformulated. Do wars spring from a popular reaction to a sudden economic crisis
that exacerbates poverty and growing disparities in wealth and incomes? Perhaps one could argue, as
some scholars do, that it is some dramatic event or sequence of such events leading to the exacerbation
of poverty that, in turn, leads to this deplorable denouement. This exogenous factor might act as a
catalyst for a violent reaction on the part of the people or on the part of the political leadership who
would then possibly be tempted to seek a diversion by finding or, if need be, fabricating an enemy and
setting in train the process leading to war. According to a study undertaken by Minxin Pei and Ariel
Adesnik of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, there would not appear to be any merit in
this hypothesis. After studying ninety-three episodes of economic crisis in twenty-two countries in
Latin America and Asia in the years since the Second World War they concluded that:19 Much of the
conventional wisdom about the political impact of economic crises may be wrong ... The severity of
economic crisis - as measured in terms of inflation and negative growth - bore no relationship to the
collapse of regimes ... (or, in democratic states, rarely) to an outbreak of violence ... In the cases of
dictatorships and semidemocracies, the ruling elites responded to crises by increasing repression
Link Turn -- Extensions
1. Turn-- Sandy proves that hurricanes good for economy—construction industry,
retail prices
Goldman 2012
“Despite $50B In Damages, Hurricane Sandy Will Be Good For The Economy, Goldman Says”
Glodman Sachs is a A full-service global investment banking and securities firm..
http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2012/11/06/despite-50b-in-damages-hurricane-sandy-willbe-good-for-the-economy-goldman-says/print/
Destruction wreaked by Hurricane Sandy may reach $50 billion, putting it roughly in-line with
the second most devastating storm in postwar history. At the end of the day, Sandy may end up
being beneficial for the U.S. economy, pushing indicators like construction spending, industrial
production, and retail sales above their pre-disaster trend-lines over the next few quarters,
according to Goldman Sachs.
Extension -- Impact Defense
No impact- 93 crises prove no war
Miller ‘00 (Morris, Economist, Adjunct Professor in the Faculty of Administration – University of
Ottawa, Former Executive Director and Senior Economist – World Bank, “Poverty as a Cause of Wars?”,
Interdisciplinary Science Reviews, Winter, p. 273)
The question may be reformulated. Do wars spring from a popular reaction to a sudden economic crisis that
exacerbates poverty and growing disparities in wealth and incomes? Perhaps one could argue, as some scholars do, that it is some dramatic
event or sequence of such events leading to the exacerbation of poverty that, in turn, leads to this deplorable denouement. This exogenous
factor might act as a catalyst for a violent reaction on the part of the people or on the part of the political leadership who would then possibly
be tempted to seek a diversion by finding or, if need be, fabricating an enemy and setting in train the process leading to war. According
to a study undertaken by Minxin Pei and Ariel Adesnik of the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace, there would not appear to be any merit in this hypothesis. After studying ninety-three
episodes of economic crisis in twenty-two countries in Latin America and Asia in the years since the Second World War they
concluded that:19 Much of the conventional wisdom about the political impact of economic crises may be wrong ... The
severity of economic crisis – as measured in terms of inflation and negative growth - bore no relationship to the collapse of
regimes ... (or, in democratic states, rarely) to an outbreak of violence ... In the cases of dictatorships and semidemocracies, the
ruling elites responded to crises by increasing repression (thereby using one form of violence to abort another).
US economy not key to global economy
The Economist 7 “America's vulnerable economy,” Nov 15th 2007.
(http://www.economist.com/node/10134118)
The best hope that global growth can stay strong lies instead with emerging economies. A decade ago, the
thought that so much depended on these crisis-prone places would have been terrifying. Yet thanks largely to economic reforms, their annual
growth rate has surged to around 7%. This year
they will contribute half of the globe's GDP growth, measured at
market exchange rates, over three times as much as America. In the past, emerging economies have often
needed bailing out by the rich world. This time they could be the rescuers. Of course, a recession in America would reduce emerging
economies' exports, but they are less vulnerable than they used to be. America's importance as an engine of global growth
has been exaggerated. Since 2000 its share of world imports has dropped from 19% to 14%. Its vast
current-account deficit has started to shrink, meaning that America is no longer pulling along the rest
of the world. Yet growth in emerging economies has quickened, partly thanks to demand at home. In the first half of this year the increase
in consumer spending (in actual dollar terms) in China and India added more to global GDP growth than that in America. Most emerging
economies are in healthier shape than ever (see article). They are no longer financially dependent on the rest of the world, but have large
foreign-exchange reserves—no less than three-quarters of the global total. Though there are some notable exceptions, most of them have
small budget deficits (another change from the past), so they can boost spending to offset weaker exports if need be.
Economic decline doesn’t cause war- prefer consensus
TIR 10
Ph.D. in Political Science, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and is an Associate Professor in the Department of
International Affairs at the University of Georgia
(Tir Jaroslav, The Journal of Politics, “Territorial Diversion: Diversionary Theory of War and Territorial Conflict”, 2010, Volume 72: 413-425,
Hopkins)
Empirical support for the economic growth rate is much weaker. The finding that poor
economic performance is associated with a higher likelihood of territorial conflict initiation
is significant only in Models 3–4.14 The weak results are not altogether surprising given the
findings from prior literature. In accordance with the insignificant relationships of Models 1–2 and 5–6, Ostrom and Job
(1986), for example, note that the likelihood that a U.S. President will use force is uncertain, as the
bad economy might create incentives both to divert the public’s attention with a foreign
adventure and to focus on solving the economic problem, thus reducing the inclination to
act abroad. Similarly, Fordham (1998a, 1998b), DeRouen (1995), and Gowa (1998) find no relation
between a poor economy and U.S. use of force. Furthermore, Leeds and Davis (1997) conclude
that the conflict-initiating behavior of 18 industrialized democracies is unrelated to
economic conditions as do Pickering and Kisangani (2005) and Russett and Oneal (2001) in global
studies. In contrast and more in line with my findings of a significant relationship (in Models 3–4), Hess and Orphanides (1995), for
example, argue that economic recessions are linked with forceful action by an incumbent U.S. president. Furthermore, Fordham’s (2002)
revision of Gowa’s (1998) analysis shows some effect of a bad economy and DeRouen and Peake (2002) report that U.S. use of force
diverts the public’s attention from a poor economy. Among cross-national studies, Oneal and Russett (1997) report that slow growth
increases the incidence of militarized disputes, as does Russett (1990)—but only for the United States; slow growth does not affect the
behavior of other countries. Kisangani and Pickering (2007) report some significant associations, but they are sensitive to model
specification, while Tir and Jasinski (2008) find a clearer link between economic underperformance and increased attacks on domestic
ethnic minorities. While none of these works has focused on territorial diversions, my own inconsistent findings for economic growth fit
well with the mixed results reported in the literature.15 Hypothesis 1 thus receives strong support via the unpopularity variable but only
These results suggest that embattled leaders are much
more likely to respond with territorial diversions to direct signs of their unpopularity (e.g.,
strikes, protests, riots) than to general background conditions such as economic malaise.
weak support via the economic growth variable.
Presumably, protesters can be distracted via territorial diversions while fixing the economy would take a more concerted and prolonged
policy effort. Bad economic conditions seem to motivate only the most serious, fatal territorial confrontations. This implies that leaders
may be reserving the most high-profile and risky diversions for the times when they are the most desperate, that is when their power is
threatened both by signs of discontent with their rule and by more systemic problems plaguing the country (i.e., an underperforming
economy).
No impact- econ decline doesn’t cause war
Barnett ‘9 (Thomas P.M. Barnett, senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC, “The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid
Financial Crisis,” 8/25/2009)
When the global financial crisis struck roughly a year ago, the blogosphere was ablaze with all sorts of
scary predictions of, and commentary regarding, ensuing conflict and wars -- a rerun of the Great Depression
leading to world war, as it were. Now, as global economic news brightens and recovery -- surprisingly led by China and emerging markets -- is
the talk of the day, it's interesting to look back over the past year and realize how globalization's
first truly worldwide
recession has had virtually no impact whatsoever on the international security landscape. None of the
more than three-dozen ongoing conflicts listed by GlobalSecurity.org can be clearly attributed to the global recession.
Indeed, the last new entry (civil conflict between Hamas and Fatah in the Palestine) predates the economic crisis by a year, and three quarters
of the chronic struggles began in the last century. Ditto for the 15 low-intensity conflicts listed by Wikipedia (where the latest entry is the
Mexican "drug war" begun in 2006). Certainly, the Russia-Georgia conflict last August was specifically timed, but by most accounts the opening
ceremony of the Beijing Olympics was the most important external trigger (followed by the U.S. presidential campaign) for that sudden spike in
an almost two-decade long struggle between Georgia and its two breakaway regions. Looking over the various databases, then, we see a most
familiar picture: the usual mix of civil conflicts, insurgencies, and liberation-themed terrorist movements. Besides the recent Russia-Georgia
dust-up, the only two potential state-on-state wars (North v. South Korea, Israel v. Iran) are both tied to one side acquiring a nuclear weapon
capacity -- a process wholly unrelated to global economic trends. And with
the United States effectively tied down by its
two ongoing major interventions (Iraq and Afghanistan-bleeding-into-Pakistan), our involvement elsewhere around
the planet has been quite modest, both leading up to and following the onset of the economic crisis: e.g., the usual counter-drug
efforts in Latin America, the usual military exercises with allies across Asia, mixing it up with pirates off Somalia's coast). Everywhere else we
find serious instability we pretty much let it burn, occasionally pressing the Chinese -- unsuccessfully -- to do something. Our new Africa
Command, for example, hasn't led us to anything beyond advising and training local forces. So, to sum up: * No significant uptick in mass
violence or unrest (remember the smattering of urban riots last year in places like Greece, Moldova and Latvia?); * The usual frequency
maintained in civil conflicts (in all the usual places); * Not a single state-on-state war directly caused (and no great-power-on-great-power crises
even triggered); * No great improvement or disruption in great-power cooperation regarding the emergence of new nuclear powers (despite all
that diplomacy); * A modest scaling back of international policing efforts by the system's acknowledged Leviathan power (inevitable given the
strain); and * No serious efforts by any rising great power to challenge that Leviathan or supplant its role. (The worst things we can cite are
Moscow's occasional deployments of strategic assets to the Western hemisphere and its weak efforts to outbid the United States on basing
rights in Kyrgyzstan; but the best include China and India stepping up their aid and investments in Afghanistan and Iraq.) Sure, we've
finally seen global defense spending surpass the previous world record set in the late 1980s, but even that's
likely to wane given the stress on public budgets created by all this unprecedented "stimulus"
spending. If anything, the friendly cooperation on such stimulus packaging was the most notable
great-power dynamic caused by the crisis. Can we say that the world has suffered a distinct shift to political radicalism as a
result of the economic crisis? Indeed, no. The world's major economies remain governed by center-left or centerright political factions that remain decidedly friendly to both markets and trade. In the short run, there
were attempts across the board to insulate economies from immediate damage (in effect, as much
protectionism as allowed under current trade rules), but there was no great slide into "trade wars." Instead, the World
Trade Organization is functioning as it was designed to function, and regional efforts toward freetrade agreements have not slowed. Can we say Islamic radicalism was inflamed by the economic crisis? If it was, that shift was
clearly overwhelmed by the Islamic world's growing disenchantment with the brutality displayed by violent extremist groups such as al-Qaida.
And looking forward, austere economic times are just as likely to breed connecting evangelicalism as disconnecting fundamentalism. At the end
of the day, the economic crisis did not prove to be sufficiently frightening to provoke major economies into establishing global regulatory
schemes, even as it has sparked a spirited -- and much needed, as I argued last week -- discussion of the continuing viability of the U.S. dollar as
the world's primary reserve currency. Naturally, plenty of experts and pundits have attached great significance to this debate, seeing in it the
beginning of "economic warfare" and the like between "fading" America and "rising" China. And yet, in
a world of globally
integrated production chains and interconnected financial markets, such "diverging interests" hardly
constitute signposts for wars up ahead. Frankly, I don't welcome a world in which America's fiscal profligacy goes undisciplined,
so bring it on -- please! Add it all up and it's fair to say that this global financial crisis has proven the great resilience of
America's post-World War II international liberal trade order.
Adv. 1, Healthcare Scenario
1NC
1. Status quo solves, Saudi Arabia is already funding improvements of Cuba’s water
infrastructure
Cuba Standard 4/13 (State run Cuban news service http://www.cubastandard.com/2013/04/21/saudimoney-to-help-rebuild-havana-water-system/)
In his second visit of Cuba in three years, Saudi Finance Minister Ibrahim Abdulaziz Al-Assaf is in Havana
through April 24 for a three-day visit, among others to provide a $30 million loan to build and renovate water
supply infrastructure in the capital, the Cuban foreign ministry announced. In addition to meeting with key
Cuban officials, Al-Assaf is expected to sign an agreement, under which the Saudi Fund for Development will fund
part of the rehabilitation of the aging water system of Havana. Neither the Cuban nor the Saudi government
disclosed the terms of the loan. This is the second Arab loan for the reconstruction of the Havana water system. In
April 2012, the Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development (KFAED) signed an agreement with the
Instituto Nacional de Recursos Hidráulicos to fund the reconstruction of water and sewer lines in the Cuban
capital. Kuwait previously funded water rehabilitation projects in Santiago de Cuba and Holguín with a total
of $25.3 million in loans. Cuba is the only country outside Asia and Africa benefiting from programs of the
Saudi Fund for Development. This is the second loan to Cuba from the development fund. Al-Assaf was also in
Havana in 2010 for the signing of a first, $20 million, 25-year loan, for renovations and equipment purchases at a
group of Cuban maternity hospitals. Saudi Arabia opened an embassy in Havana in 2011. In June last year, Foreign
Trade Minister Rodrigo Malmierca visited the Saudi capital during a tour of Arab countries. In Ryad, Malmierca met
with Health Minister Abdullah A. Al Rabeeah, to talk about healthcare training, research, the Visiting Doctors
program, technology transfer and pharmaceutical production. Malmierca’s delegation also included Ricardo de la
Caridad Silva Rodríguez, business director of the Centro de Ingeniería Genética y Biotecnología (CIGB). In a meeting
with Deputy Foreign Trade Minister Mohammed bin Hamd Al Kathiry, Malmierca talked about “possibilities of
commercial cooperation, business opportunities in Cuba, and other topics,” the Cuban foreign ministry said at the
time.
2. SQ Solves for disease threat -- UPCOSH
ASNS 8, Africa Science News Service, Uganda, 9-15-2008, AIDS cure may lie in
supercharged "mineral water"
Antibiotics and vaccines that prompt side effects, genetic mutations, and resistant
germs may soon be obsolete pending the results of an AIDS trial sponsored
by volunteers, humanitarian groups, and The Republic of Uganda. At the Victoria
Medical Center, in this nation at the epicenter of the pandemic, a new type of "mineral
water" will be tested to compete with the drug industry's most profitable
weapons against disease. As governments worldwide are stockpiling defenses against
bioterrorist attacks and deadly new outbreaks, Uganda will test a new possible cure for
infectious diseases made from energized water and silver. It is
called UPCOSHTM, short for "Uniform Picoscaler Concentrated Oligodynamic Silver
Hydrosol." OXYSILVERTM is the leading brand. The base formula was developed by
NASA scientists to protect astronauts in space.The solution of pure water and
energized silver and oxygen uniquely boasts a covalent electromagnetic bond between
these two non-toxic elements that kills most harmful germs, oxygenates the blood,
alkalines the body, helps feed essential nutrients to healthy cells and desirable digestive
bacteria, and even relays a musical note upon which active DNA depends. These
factors are crucial for developing mega-immunity and winning the war against
cancer and infectious diseases experts say. According to the product's developers,
including famous health scientists, this entirely new class of liquids and gels is
performing "miraculously" in killing HIV, the AIDS virus, tuberculosis, and malaria
in initial tests. Africa's greatest killers (after starvation, dehydration,
and resulting immunological destruction) are no match for a few drops of
UPCOSHTM. Even using a germ infested glass, as is commonly the case in the poorest
communities, you need not fear. This water safely disinfects everything it touches.
Ugandan officials were encouraged by the nation's leading AIDS activist, Peter Luyima,
co-founder of the WASART African Youth Movement, to study OXYSILVERTM. Mr.
Luyima invited several humanitarian doctors, researchers, organizations, and
corporations to sponsor this promising human experiment on 70 terminally-ill patients. If
successful, the government plans to grant funding to Mr. Luyima's youth
organization to establish an OXYSILVERTM manufacturing plant to
supply this life-saving liquid to distributors across Africa. "Better late than
never, OXYSILVERTM may prove to be civilization's greatest hope for
surviving against the current and coming plagues," says Dr. Leonard Horowitz, an
award-winning public health and emerging diseases expert who contributed to the
product's electro-genetic formulation. Author of the American bestseller, Emerging
Viruses: AIDS & Ebola--Nature, Accident or Intentional?, and the scientific text, DNA:
Pirates of the Sacred Spiral, Dr. Horowitz is most critical of the drug cartel profiting from
humanity's suffering.
3. Disease can’t cause extinction – it’s genetically impossible
Posner 05, Richard Posner Senior Lecturer in Law at the University of Chicago, judge on the United States Court of Appeals for
the Seventh Circuit, January 1, 2005, Skeptic, “Catastrophe: the dozen most significant catastrophic risks and what we can do about
them,” http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-4150331/Catastrophe-the-dozen-most-significant.html#abstract
Yet the
fact that Homo sapiens has managed to survive every disease to assail it in the
200,000 years or so of its existence is a source of genuine comfort, at least if the focus is on extinction
events. There have been enormously destructive plagues, such as the Black Death,
smallpox, and now AIDS, but none has come close to destroying the entire humanrace.
There is a biological reason. Natural selection favors germs of limited lethality ; they are
fitter in an evolutionary sense because their genes are more likely to be spread if thegerms do not
kill their hosts too quickly. The AIDS virus is an example of a lethal virus, wholly natural, that by lying dormant yet
infectious in its host for years maximizes its spread. Yet there is no danger that AIDS will destroy the
entire human race. The likelihood of a natural pandemic that would cause the
extinction of the human race is probably even less today than in the past (except in
prehistoric times, when people lived in small, scattered bands, which would have limited the spread of disease), despite wider
human contacts that make it more difficult to localize an infectious disease. The
reason is improvements in
medical science. But the comfort is a small one. Pandemics can still impose enormous losses and resist prevention and cure:
the lesson of the AIDS pandemic. And there is always a lust time.
4. Human diversity, medicine and evolutionary limits check.
Gladwell 95 [Malcolm, New York bureau chief of The Washington Post, New Republic, July 17]
Every infectious agent that has ever
plagued humanity has had to adopt a specific strategy, but every strategy carries a
corresponding cost, and this makes human counterattack possible. Malaria is vicious and
This is what is wrong with the Andromeda Strain argument.
deadly, but it relies on mosquitoes to spread from one human to the next, which means that draining swamps
and putting up mosquito netting can all but halt endemic malaria. Smallpox is extraordinarily durable,
remaining infectious in the environment for years, but its very durability, its essential rigidity, is what
makes it one of the easiest microbes to create a vaccine against. aids is almost invariably lethal because its
attacks the body at its point of great vulnerability, that is, the immune system, but the fact that it targets
blood cells is what makes it so relatively uninfectious. I could go on, but the point is obvious. Any
microbe capable of wiping us all out would have to be everything at once: as contagious
as flu, as durable as the cold, as lethal as Ebola, as stealthy as HIV and so doggedly
resistant to mutation that it would stay deadly over the course of a long epidemic. But
viruses are not, well, superhuman. They cannot do everything at once. It is one of the ironies
of the analysis of alarmists such as Preston that they are all too willing to point out the limitations of human
beings, but they neglect to point out the limitations of microscopic life forms. If there are any conclusions
to be drawn about disease, they are actually the opposite of what is imagined in books such as The Hot
Zone and The Coming Plague. It is true that the effect of the dramatic demographic and social changes in
the world over the past few decades is to create new opportunities for disease. But they are likely to create
not homogeneous patterns of disease, as humans experienced in the past, so much as heterogeneous patterns
of disease. People are traveling more and living in different combinations. Gene pools that
were once distinct are mixing through intermarriage. Adults who once would have died in middle
age are now living into their 80s. Children with particular genetic configurations who once died at
birth or in infancy are now living longer lives. If you talk to demographers, they will tell you that what they
anticipate is increasing clusters of new and odd diseases moving into these new genetic and demographic
niches. Rare diseases will be showing up in greater numbers. Entirely unknown diseases will emerge
for the first time. But the same diversity that created them within those population subgroups will
keep them there. Laurie Garrett's book is mistitled. We are not facing "the coming plague." We are
facing "the coming outbreaks."
Extension – Impact Defense
The more virulent a disease it is, the less of a concern it is
The Guardian 3 (“Second Sight”, September 25, http://technology.guardian.co.uk/online/story/0,3605,1048929,00.html, KF)
The parallel with the natural world is illustrative. Take the case of everyone's favourite evil virus, Ebola. This is so virulent that
it kills up to 90% of infected hosts within one to two weeks. There is no known cure. So how
come the entire population hasn't dropped dead from haemorrhaging, shock or renal failure? The
"organism" is just too deadly: it kills too quickly and has too short an incubation period, so
the pool of infected people doesn't grow.
Humans can respond effectively to disease
Wills 96 (Christopher, Professor of Biology at the University of California Yellow Fever, Black Goddess)
I am confident that no terrible disease will appear that slaughters us by the billion. The reason is that we can
now respond very quickly to such a visible enemy. Any disease that spreads like wildfire will have to go so
through the air or water and there are many steps we can take right away to prevent such a spread. If the
people of fourteenth-century Europe had known what we know now, they could have halted the black death in
short order.
The more virulent, the less likely extinction is
Adam 5 (Mike, Staff Writer for Newstarget.com, "Why the bird flu virus is less deadly but more dangerous," June 21,
http://loveforlife.com.au/content/08/02/05/why-bird-flu-virus-less-deadly-more-dangerous-mike-adams-21st-june-2005, KF)
If you're a really deadly virus -- like Ebola, which kills 90 percent of the people infected -- then you're actually not
very good at spreading from one person to the next. Why? You kill your host too quickly. You're
so deadly that your host dies before you get a chance to be infectious. In order to be a pandemic, a virus must be
highly infectious; it must be able to spread from one person to another in an undetectable way. When a virus becomes
less-immediately lethal, it is able to survive in the host in an undetectable state, for a longer period of time. This is
what makes viruses really, really dangerous: A dangerous virus is not lethal to one individual; rather, it can exist in a hidden state and be
passed from one person to the next. It's the contagiousness of a virus that makes it dangerous.
Let's say you're a virus and
you consider "success" to be wiping people out. Obviously, viruses don't have that sort of thought process, this is
just a way to explain their strategies. If you're a virus and you're trying to infect and kill people, you're going to be far more
"successful" if you have a low kill rate but infect a billion people, rather than having a very high kill rate and only
infecting 10 or 20 people. If you are a very deadly virus in the Congo, for example, and you manage to wipe out a
small village, even though you were rather horrifying to the village and fatal to those people, you as a virus haven't
been very successful. Why? You wiped out the village; there's nobody left to spread it. Now, again, of course
viruses don't think this way: They don't have plans, they don't have strategies -- this is just evolutionary biology in play.
Adv. 1, Biodiversity Scenario
1NC
1. Protected areas in the SQ solve for biodiversity loss
Zedan 05 (Hamdallah, Executive Secretary Convention on Biological Diversity, “Protected areas
for achieving biodiversity targets” http://www.cbd.int/doc/publications/news-pa-supplement-en.pdf)
Protected areas are, and will remain, cornerstones of biodiversity conservation. They are also
critical to human welfare, poverty alleviation and the achievement of the Millennium Development
Goals. In the face of increasing human pressure on the planet's resources, an effective global
protected area system is the best hope for conserving ecosystems, habitats, and species and to help
achieve the target of achieving a significant reduction in the current rate of biodiversity loss by 2010,
which was adopted by the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity in 2002
and endorsed by the World Summit on Sustainable Development later in the same year. Globally, the
number of protected areas has been increasing significantly over the last few decades, currently
covering 12 per cent of the world's land surface.
2. No link -- Ecosystems resilient to hurricanes
Burkholder et al 04 (Joan, professor of aquatic ecology at NCSU, “Study: Eastern N.C. Ecosystem
Bounces Back From Hurricanes,” http://www.ncsu.edu/news/press_releases/04_06/198.htm)
After receiving the brunt of powerful hurricanes in 1996 and 1999, the Neuse River and Estuary and
western Pamlico Sound in eastern North Carolina appear to have suffered few long-term ill effects
from the storms, and have actually benefited ecologically in some ways from the storms ' scouring effects.
Those are the findings of a team of North Carolina State University scientists and collaborators from various North Carolina universities and
government agencies. Dr. JoAnn Burkholder, NC State professor of botany and director of the Center for Applied Aquatic Ecology, says the
research shows that water
quality, numbers and health of most of the area's shellfish and finfish, and the
overall health of the surveyed water systems – though initially acutely affected by storms, especially
Hurricane Fran in 1996 – have over the long run returned to normal, suggesting the resilience of estuarine
systems such as the Neuse and Pamlico Sound. Some harmful organisms that took hold before the storms are
now in abeyance, suggesting the storms beneficially flushed the areas studied. The one major estuary dweller
that has been slow to recover is the blue crab, the researchers say, although its numbers are now creeping back toward average abundances.
The research is published online this week (June 14) in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (U.S.A.). After the storms, predictions
abounded that Pamlico Sound, of the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuarine System – the largest lagoonal estuary in the United States – would be
devastated by the cumulative effects of Hurricane Fran in 1996 and Hurricanes Dennis, Floyd and Irene in 1999. But the
longer-term
data presented in this study show the remarkable recovery and resilience of the water quality and the
finfish and shellfish inhabitants. The paper shows that although less water volume was delivered by Hurricane Fran, large amounts of fish
kills were reported due to oxygen depletion and high concentrations of contaminants like nitrogen, phosphorus and fecal bacteria. After the
1999 hurricane season, however, contaminant loads were about the same as in 1996, but no major fish kills were reported due to the
enormous amount of flooding that diluted the pollution, Burkholder says. Diminished levels
of dissolved oxygen were
documented after both storms. But those levels returned to normal shortly after the storms, the research
shows. Burkholder added that the storms displaced undesirable organisms – like the toxic alga Pfiesteria, linked to massive fish kills in the 1990s
– to areas of the estuary that are less conducive for growth. Pfiesteria populations have shown minimal recovery. The paper also states that
commercial catch numbers of shrimp or bivalve molluscs such as clams and scallops did not suffer long-term effects
from the storms. The one species affected negatively for a longer period of time by the storms was the blue crab, the paper asserts. Reductions
in the number of blue crabs can be attributed, says Dr. David Eggleston, professor of marine science at NC State and co-author of the paper, to
the relationship between hurricane floodwaters, the crabs' migration response to the floodwaters and the subsequent overfishing of the massmigrating crabs. "We feel the historically low abundances of blue crabs in 2000 and 2001 are a direct result of the interactions between
floodwaters and overfishing," Eggleston said. "The blue crabs migrated en masse, which concentrated them and made them more vulnerable to
fishing." Another piece of the puzzle involved the areas where the blue crabs colonize, Eggleston says. Floodwaters from the rivers impeded the
movement of post-larval stages of the blue crab from seawater inlets to their nursery habitats along the western shore of Pamlico Sound.
Eggleston says, though, that his new stock assessments of the blue crabs will shed further light on its status in Pamlico Sound. "The
overall
story we see is of estuarine resilience to impacts from these types of major storms," Burkholder said. "The
negative predictions about long-term devastation of water quality and fisheries, made right after the storms, were not
borne out." Funding for the study was provided by the Environmental Protection Agency, the N.C. General Assembly, the National Science
Foundation and N.C. Sea Grant.
3. Alt cause—deforestation hurts biodiversity and outweighs hurricanes
Mogato 08 (Manny, journalist for Reuters, “U.N. calls on Asian nations to end deforestation”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/06/20/us-philippines-biodiversity-idUSMAN18800220080620)
About 80 percent of the world's known biodiversity could be found in forests, where about 1.6 billion
people also depend for their survival, Ahmed Djoghlaf, executive director of U.N. Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), told a
news conference in Manila. "The project to stop deforestation by 2020 is feasible, it's doable," Djoghlaf said. In a meeting in Germany in May,
65 countries committed to support a call by the Worldwide Fund for Nature for a zero net deforestation by 2020, but only two -- Cambodia and
Vietnam -- were from Southeast Asia. Djoghlaf said the
world was losing around 13 million hectares of its forest
cover every year, about the size of 36 football fields a minute. About 95 countries have totally lost
their forests, he said. In Southeast Asia, forest fires destroyed about 10 million hectares between 1997 and
2006. More trees were being felled due to shifting agricultural practices, illegal lumber trade and largescale mining, he said. At the current rate of deforestation, said Rodrigo Fuentes, head of Southeast Asia's Center for
Biodiversity, the region would lose three-fourths of its 47 million hectares of forest and up to 42 percent of its
biodiversity by 2100. Djoghlaf and Fuentes said the destruction of biodiversity would also impact global security and the world
economy due to rising competition for scarce food and fuel resources.
4. Biodiversity loss inevitable – past conservation failures prove
The Nature Conservancy 10 (Apr 29, http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/wildernessresources/stories/new-studybiodiversity-continues-to-decline-worldwide)
Species continue to be lost at steady rates across nearly every habitat type on Earth — this despite an
international commitment eight years ago to significantly reduce the rate of such losses by 2010,
according to a new study coauthored by a Nature Conservancy scientist. The study, published today in
Science magazine, is the first to comprehensively measure progress toward achieving the goals of the
Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), a treaty that pledged to significantly reduce 2002 rates of
biodiversity loss by this year toward the end of alleviating global poverty. The study’s authors found
that virtually all of the indicators of the state of biodiversity — everything from species’ population
trends to extinction risk to habitat conditions — have declined since 2002. Alarmingly, these declines
have continued despite increases in policies and funds to promote biodiversity, write the authors. The
drivers for these declines include invasive alien species, the impacts of climate change and aggregate
human consumption of Earth’s ecological assets.
Extension
Human activity has a far more significant effect on biodiversity than natural disasters
Nat Geo 12(National Geographic, “Marine Habitat Destruction Coastal Areas Are Bearing the Brunt”
http://ocean.nationalgeographic.com/ocean/critical-issues-marine-habitat-destruction/)
Habitat destruction occurs when the conditions necessary for plants and animals to survive are
significantly compromised or eliminated. Most areas of the world's oceans are experiencing habitat
loss. But coastal areas, with their closeness to human population centers, have suffered
disproportionately and mainly from manmade stresses. Habitat loss here has far-reaching impacts on
the entire ocean's biodiversity. These critical areas, which include estuaries, swamps, marshes, and
wetlands, serve as breeding grounds or nurseries for nearly all marine species. Humans and Mother
Nature share blame in the destruction of ocean habitats, but not equally. Hurricanes and typhoons,
storm surges, tsunamis and the like can cause massive, though usually temporary, disruptions in the
life cycles of ocean plants and animals. Human activities, however, are significantly more impactful
and persistent. Wetlands are dredged and filled in to accommodate urban, industrial, and agricultural
development. Cities, factories, and farms create waste, pollution, and chemical effluent and runoff
that can wreak havoc on reefs, sea grasses, birds, and fish. Inland dams decrease natural nutrient-rich
runoff, cut off fish migration routes, and curb freshwater flow, increasing the salinity of coastal waters.
Deforestation far from shore creates erosion, sending silt into shallow waters that can block the sunlight
coral reefs need to thrive. Destructive fishing techniques like bottom trawling, dynamiting, and
poisoning destroy habitats near shore as well as in the deep sea. Tourism brings millions of boaters,
snorkelers, and scuba divers into direct contact with fragile wetland and reef ecosystems. Container
ships and tankers can damage habitat with their hulls and anchors. Spills of crude oil and other
substances kill thousands of birds and fish and leave a toxic environment that can persist for years.
Bio-d extinction inevitable – Humans driving species extinct faster than new species
can evolve.
Jowit 10 (Juliette, political correspondent for the Guardian, “Humans driving extinction faster than
species can evolve, say experts,” 3/7,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/mar/07/extinction-species-evolve)
For the first time since the dinosaurs disappeared, humans are driving animals and plants to
extinction faster than new species can evolve, one of the world's experts on biodiversity has warned.
Conservation experts have already signaled that the world is in the grip of the "sixth great
extinction" of species, driven by the destruction of natural habitats, hunting, the spread of alien
predators and disease, and climate change. However until recently it has been hoped that the rate
at which new species were evolving could keep pace with the loss of diversity of life. Speaking in
advance of two reports next week on the state of wildlife in Britain and Europe, Simon Stuart, chair of
the Species Survival Commission for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature – the body
which officially declares species threatened and extinct – said that point had now "almost certainly"
been crossed. "Measuring the rate at which new species evolve is difficult, but there's no question that
the current extinction rates are faster than that; I think it's inevitable," said Stuart. The IUCN created
shock waves with its major assessment of the world's biodiversity in 2004, which calculated that the
rate of extinction had reached 100-1,000 times that suggested by the fossil records before humans.
Adv. 2, SciDip Scenario
1NC
1. SQ Solves—science envoys
Koenig ’09 (Robert Koenig, Science staff writer, 6/5/2009, "Fuzzy Spots in Obama's Science
Diplomacy," http://blogs.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2009/06/fuzzy-spots-in.html]
Administration officials are scrambling to add substance to President Barack Obama’s new Middle
Eastern science diplomacy initiatives, mentioned Thursday in his speech in Cairo. The President
promised new “science envoys,” centers of excellence, and a “technological development” fund for the
Middle East, North Africa, and Southeast Asia. The State Department and White House Office of Science
and Technology Policy (OSTP) were working today to bring those words into focus. “Details of these
initiatives will be crafted in discussion with officials in the nations where they will be based,” said OSTP
spokesman Rick Weiss. Nina V. Fedoroff, science adviser to the Secretary of State and the Agency for
International Development, said that proposals for centers of excellence “have been bubbling up from
several different directions” with emphasis on issues such as agriculture and public health. A State
Department fact sheet explained that the United States “will work with educational institutions, NGOs
and foreign governments” to decide the focus and location of such centers. The new “science envoys”
program could follow the lines of a bill sponsored by Sen. Lugar (R–IN) and approved by the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee that would deploy prominent scientists on missions of goodwill and
collaboration. Fedoroff said such efforts would dovetail with evolving State Department science
diplomacy programs. Obama also announced a new regional fund to support technological development
in Muslim-majority countries. The fact sheet said the fund would help pay for “S&T collaboration,
capacity development” and innovations with commercial potential.
2. Science diplomacy fails-- science and government control are incompatible
COSEPUP and PGA 5 (Committee on Science, Engineering and Public Policy, and Policy and Global
Affairs, http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11289#orgs, 7/9/11)
An aspect of S&E strength deserving brief mention is the challenge in integrating scientific research and
educational policies with foreign policy. A familiar, if only occasional, overlap between scientific and
foreign policy has been seen in the realm of “big science” such as the multinational particle accelerators
and detectors at CERN, large telescopes, and international ocean and geophysical projects. Negotiating
big science is seldom easy, partly because of the obvious differences between the realms of science and
large-scale political structures. Among the most obvious is that many intergovernment research activities
are “top-down,” established and monitored by government officials, whereas most research collaborations
are “bottom-up,” with scientists choosing partners and applying to government for research support.
Traditional research linkages create what were long ago called “invisible colleges”97 of practitioners,
below the radar of policymakers. As the globalization of S&E progresses, a better understanding of how
to integrate top-down and bottom-up cooperation is needed if nations are to maximize the benefits of their
investments in S&E.98 Scientists and engineers trained to work between cultures may be increasingly
important as these negotiations proceed, and US students may benefit from overseas postgraduate training
and research experience.
3. Empirically denied -- Science diplomacy has limited effectiveness-the Middle
East proves
Dickson 09 [David Dickson, director of SciDev.net, “The Limits of Science Diplomacy”, June 4, 2009]
Only so much science can do
Recently, the Obama administration has given this field a new push, in its desire to pursue "soft
diplomacy" in regions such as the Middle East. Scientific agreements have been at the forefront of the
administration's activities in countries such as Iraq and Pakistan.
But — as emerged from a meeting entitled New Frontiers in Science Diplomacy, held in London this
week (1–2 June) — using science for diplomatic purposes is not as straightforward as it seems.
Some scientific collaboration clearly demonstrates what countries can achieve by working together. For
example, a new synchrotron under construction in Jordan is rapidly becoming a symbol of the potential
for teamwork in the Middle East.
But whether scientific cooperation can become a precursor for political collaboration is less evident. For
example, despite hopes that the Middle East synchrotron would help bring peace to the region, several
countries have been reluctant to support it until the Palestine problem is resolved.
Indeed, one speaker at the London meeting (organised by the UK's Royal Society and the American
Association for the Advancement of Science) even suggested that the changes scientific innovations bring
inevitably lead to turbulence and upheaval. In such a context, viewing science as a driver for peace may
be wishful thinking.
4. No impact-- Science diplomacy’s power overblown
Dickson 10 (David, director of SciDev, June 28 http://scidevnet.wordpress.com/category/sciencediplomacy-conference-2010/ 7/9/11)
Here the challenge for diplomats was seen as helping to find ways to ease the burdens of such restrictions.
The broadest gaps in understanding the potential of scientific diplomacy lay in the third category, namely
the use of science as a channel of international diplomacy, either as a way of helping to forge consensus
on contentious issues, or as a catalyst for peace in situations of conflict. On the first of these, some
pointed to recent climate change negotiations, and in particular the work of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, as a good example, of the way that the scientific community can provide a strong
rationale for joint international action. But others referred to the failure of the Copenhagen climate
summit last December to come up with a meaningful agreement on action as a demonstration of the
limitations of this way of thinking. It was argued that this failure had been partly due to a misplaced
belief that scientific consensus would be sufficient to generate a commitment to collective action, without
taking into account the political impact that scientific ideas would have. Another example that received
considerable attention was the current construction of a synchrotron facility SESAME in Jordan, a project
that is already is bringing together researchers in a range of scientific disciplines from various countries
in the Middle East (including Israel, Egypt and Palestine, as well as both Greece and Turkey). The
promoters of SESAME hope that – as with the building of CERN 60 years ago, and its operation as a
research centre involving, for example, physicists from both Russia and the United States – SESAME
will become a symbol of what regional collaboration can achieve. In that sense, it would become what
one participant described as a “beacon of hope” for the region. But others cautioned that, however
successful SESAME may turn out to be in purely scientific terms, its potential impact on the Middle East
peace process should not be exaggerated. Political conflicts have deep roots that cannot easily be papered
over, however open-minded scientists may be to professional colleagues coming from other political
contexts. Indeed, there was even a warning that in the developing world, high profile scientific projects,
particular those with explicit political backing, could end up doing damage by inadvertently favouring
one social group over another. Scientists should be wary of having their prestige used in this way; those
who did so could come over as patronising, appearing unaware of political realities. Similarly, those who
hold science in esteem as a practice committed to promoting the causes of peace and development were
reminded of the need to take into account how advances in science – whether nuclear physics or genetic
technology – have also led to new types of weaponry. Nor did science automatically lead to the reduction
of global inequalities. “Science for diplomacy” therefore ended up with a highly mixed review. The
consensus seemed to be that science can prepare the ground for diplomatic initiatives – and benefit from
diplomatic agreements – but cannot provide the solutions to either.
Government/Science Can’t Mix
Science diplomacy is filled with disagreement and confusion—ineffective at best
Dickson '10 [David. Director of SciDev.net. “Science in diplomacy: “On tap but not on top”.” June 28,
2010. http://scidevnet.wor...onference-2010/. JCook.]
There’s a general consensus in both the scientific and political worlds that the principle of science diplomacy, at
least in the somewhat restricted sense of the need to get more and better science into international negotiations, is a desirable
objective. There is less agreement, however, on how far the concept can – or indeed should – be
extended to embrace broader goals and objectives, in particular attempts to use science to achieve
political or diplomatic goals at the international level. Science, despite its international characteristics, is no
substitute for effective diplomacy. Any more than diplomatic initiatives necessarily lead to good science. These seem
to have been the broad conclusions to emerge from a three-day meeting at Wilton Park in Sussex, UK, organised
by the British Foreign Office and the Royal Society, and attended by scientists, government officials
and politicians from 17 countries around the world. The definition of science diplomacy varied widely
among participants. Some saw it as a subcategory of “public diplomacy”, or what US diplomats have recently been promoting
as “soft power” (“the carrot rather than the stick approach”, as a participant described it). Others preferred to see it as a core
element of the broader concept of “innovation diplomacy”, covering the politics of engagement in the familiar fields of international
scientific exchange and technology transfer, but raising these to a higher level as a diplomatic objective. Whatever definition is
used, three particular aspects of the debate became the focus of attention during the Wilton Park meeting: how science can inform
the diplomatic process; how diplomacy can assist science in achieving its objectives; and, finally, how science can provide a channel
for quasi-diplomatic exchanges by forming an apparently neutral bridge between countries. There was little disagreement on the
first of these. Indeed for many, given the increasing number of international issues with a scientific dimension that politicians have
to deal with, this is essentially what the core of science diplomacy should be about. Chris Whitty, for example, chief scientist at the
highly
damaging plant disease stem rust had been an important input by researchers into discussions by politicians and diplomats
UK’s Department for International Development, described how knowledge about the threat raised by the spread of the
over strategies for persuading Afghan farmers to shift from the production of opium to wheat. Others pointed out that the scientific
community had played a major role in drawing attention to issues such as the links between chlorofluorocarbons in the atmosphere
and the growth of the ozone hole, or between carbon dioxide emissions and climate change. Each has made essential contributions
to policy decisions. Acknowledging this role for science has some important implications. No-one dissented when Rohinton Medhora,
from Canada’s International Development Research Centre, complained of the lack of adequate scientific expertise in the embassies
of many countries of the developed and developing world alike. Nor – perhaps predictably – was there any major disagreement that
diplomatic initiatives can both help and occasionally hinder the process of science. On the positive side, such diplomacy can play a
significant role in facilitating science exchange and the launch of international science projects, both essential for the development
of modern science. Europe’s framework programme of research programmes was quoted as a successful advantage of the first of
these. Examples of the second range from the establishment of the European Organisation of Nuclear Research (usually known as
CERN) in Switzerland after the Second World War, to current efforts to build a large new nuclear fusion facility (ITER). Less
positively, increasing restrictions on entry to certain countries, and in particular the United States after the 9/11 attacks in New York
and elsewhere, have significantly impeded scientific exchange programmes. Here the challenge for diplomats was seen as helping
to find ways to ease the burdens of such restrictions. The broadest gaps in understanding the potential of scientific diplomacy lay in
the third category, namely the use of science as a channel of international diplomacy, either as a way of helping to forge consensus
on contentious issues, or as a catalyst for peace in situations of conflict. On the first of these, some pointed to recent climate
change negotiations, and in particular the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as a good example, of the way
that the scientific community can provide a strong rationale for joint international action. But others referred to the failure of the
Copenhagen climate summit last December to come up with a meaningful agreement on action as a demonstration of the
limitations of this way of thinking. It was argued that this failure had been partly due to a misplaced belief that scientific consensus
would be sufficient to generate a commitment to collective action, without taking into account the political impact that scientific
ideas would have. Another example that received considerable attention was the current construction of a synchrotron
facility SESAMEin Jordan, a project that is already is bringing together researchers in a range of scientific disciplines from
various countries in the Middle East (including Israel, Egypt and Palestine, as well as both Greece and Turkey). The promoters of
SESAME hope that – as with the building of CERN 60 years ago, and its operation as a research centre involving, for example,
physicists from both Russia and the United States – SESAME will become a symbol of what regional collaboration can achieve. In
that sense, it would become what one participant described as a “beacon of hope” for the region. But others cautioned that,
however successful SESAME may turn out to be in purely scientific terms, its potential impact on the Middle East peace process
should not be exaggerated. Political conflicts have deep roots that cannot easily be papered over, however open-minded scientists
may be to professional colleagues coming from other political contexts. Indeed,
there was even a warning that in the
developing world, high profile scientific projects, particular those with explicit political backing, could
end up doing damage by inadvertently favouring one social group over another. Scientists should be wary of
having their prestige used in this way; those who did so could come over as patronising, appearing unaware of political realities.
Similarly, those who hold science in esteem as a practice committed to promoting the causes of peace and development were
reminded of the need to take into account how advances in science – whether nuclear physics or genetic technology – have also led
to new types of weaponry. Nor did science automatically lead to the reduction of global inequalities. “Science for diplomacy”
therefore ended up with a highly mixed review. The consensus seemed to be that science can prepare the ground for diplomatic
initiatives – and benefit from diplomatic agreements – butcannot provide the solutions to either. “On tap but not on top” seems as
relevant in international settings as it does in purely national ones. With all the caution that even this formulation still requires.
Scientific Diplomacy is driven by national self-interest, interferes with effectiveness of
plan.
MacDonald '10 [Rhona. “Scientific diplomacy: new idea but the same old political
agenda.” http://blogs.plos.or...litical-agenda/. JCook.]
We have all heard of political diplomacy and thanks to a recent series inPLoS Medicine, now know more
about health diplomacy . But have we even heard of the new kid on the diplomatic block– science
diplomacy? According to an opinion piece by Naiyyum Choudhury published on the science and
development network (http://www.scidev.net/) the idea of science diplomacy is fast gaining ground as
an effective tool for building ties between developed and developing countries and forging closer
working relationships. Seemingly “Science diplomacy can open the door for collaborative action to mitigate the effects of
poverty and lead to greater global stability.” Perhaps it can. But the key point to be aware of is that diplomatic
efforts are driven by national self-interests in order to fulfil political objectives. So under the cloak of
scientific diplomacy, many countries, particularly the USA, are looking to build on scientific relationships to
reduce negative perceptions and achieve broader political objectives. Given the enthusiasm with which the
diplomacy agendas seem to have been embraced, this situation may be inevitable. But does that make it morally
acceptable? Like health research and innovation, scientific innovation should meet public needs not
political agendas. Otherwise, the needs of those populations will continue to be neglected. Diplomacy. of
whatever kind, may oil the wheels of the world to make things run more smoothly. But sometimes, the road to progress in
improving global health and alleviating global poverty has to be bumpy in order to tackle the key issues, such as social injustice,
head on.
Science diplomacy fails – political motivates corrupt its effectiveness.
Dickson 09 [David Dickson, director of SciDev.net, “The Limits of Science Diplomacy”, June 4, 2009,
http://www.scidev.net/en/editorials/the-limits-of-science-diplomacy.html ]
But — as emerged from a meeting entitled New Frontiers in Science Diplomacy, held in London this
week (1–2 June) — using science for diplomatic purposes is not as straightforward as it seems. Some
scientific collaboration clearly demonstrates what countries can achieve by working together. For
example, a new synchrotron under construction in Jordan is rapidly becoming a symbol of the potential
for teamwork in the Middle East. But whether scientific cooperation can become a precursor for political
collaboration is less evident. For example, despite hopes that the Middle East synchrotron would help
bring peace to the region, several countries have been reluctant to support it until the Palestine problem is
resolved. Indeed, one speaker at the London meeting (organised by the UK's Royal Society and the
American Association for the Advancement of Science) even suggested that the changes scientific
innovations bring inevitably lead to turbulence and upheaval. In such a context, viewing science as a
driver for peace may be wishful thinking. Conflicting ethos Perhaps the most contentious area discussed
at the meeting was how science diplomacy can frame developed countries' efforts to help build scientific
capacity in the developing world. There is little to quarrel with in collaborative efforts that are put
forward with a genuine desire for partnership. Indeed, partnership — whether between individuals,
institutions or countries — is the new buzzword in the "science for development" community. But true
partnership requires transparent relations between partners who are prepared to meet as equals. And that
goes against diplomats' implicit role: to promote and defend their own countries' interests. John
Beddington, the British government's chief scientific adviser, may have been a bit harsh when he told the
meeting that a diplomat is someone who is "sent abroad to lie for his country". But he touched a raw
nerve. Worlds apart yet co-dependent The truth is that science and politics make an uneasy alliance. Both
need the other. Politicians need science to achieve their goals, whether social, economic or —
unfortunately — military; scientists need political support to fund their research. But they also occupy
different universes. Politics is, at root, about exercising power by one means or another. Science is — or
should be — about pursuing robust knowledge that can be put to useful purposes. A strategy for
promoting science diplomacy that respects these differences deserves support. Particularly so if it focuses
on ways to leverage political and financial backing for science's more humanitarian goals, such as
tackling climate change or reducing world poverty. But a commitment to science diplomacy that ignores
the differences — acting for example as if science can substitute politics (or perhaps more worryingly,
vice versa), is dangerous.
Science Diplomacy isn’t possible, there aren’t enough scientists
Lord et al. 09 [Kristin M. Lord, vice president at the Center for a New American Security “The Science
of Diplomacy”, May 5, 2009]
Facing a complex set of foreign-policy challenges, the United States can no longer afford to overlook
such a useful instrument of statecraft. Regrettably, the U.S. government is not well organized to take
advantage of science diplomacy. The National Science Foundation and technical departments (Energy,
Agriculture, Health and Human Services, and Defense) apply their resources to science -- but not to its
diplomatic use. Thus, the Obama administration should appoint a senior-level ambassador for science and
technology cooperation in the State Department. He or she could convene an interagency group
coordinating the strategic use of science diplomacy.
Adv. 2, Relations Scenario
1NC
1. No Link -- There are too many obstacles to US-Cuban relations
Hanson and Lee 13 (Stephanie and Brianna, Senior Production Editor at the Council on Foreign
Relations, January 13, 2013, http://www.cfr.org/cuba/us-cuba-relations/p11113) DCS
A fundamental incompatibility of political views stands in the way of improving U.S.-Cuban relations,
experts say. While experts say the United States wants regime change, "the most important objective of
the Cuban government is to remain in power at all costs," says Felix Martin, an assistant professor at
Florida International University's Cuban Research Institute. Fidel Castro has been an inspiration for Latin
American leftists such as Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and Bolivian President Evo Morales, who
have challenged U.S. policy in the region.¶ Experts say these issues include: Human rights violations. In
March 2003, the Cuban government arrested seventy-five dissidents and journalists, sentencing them
to prison terms of up to twenty-eight years on charges of conspiring with the United States to
overthrow the state. The Cuban Commission for Human Rights and National Reconciliation, a Havanabased nongovernmental group, reports that the government has in recent years resorted to other
tactics besides prison --such as firings from state jobs and intimidation on the street-- to silence
opposition figures. A 2005 UN Human Rights Commission vote condemned Cuba's human rights
record, but the country was elected to the new UN Human Rights Council in 2006.¶ Cuba indicated after
9/11 that it would not object if the United States brought prisoners to Guantanamo Bay. However,
experts such as Sweig say Cuban officials have since seized on the U.S. prison camp--where hundreds
of terror suspects have been detained--as a "symbol of solidarity" with the rest of the world against
the United States. Although Obama ordered Guantanamo to be closed by January 22, 2010, the facility
remains open as of January 2013, and many analysts say it is likely to stay in operation for an extended
period.
2. Cuba will not transition to democracy
Hawkins 01 (Darren Hawkins, Professor of Political Science at Brigham Young University
“Democratization Theory and Nontransitions: Insights from Cuba” ¶ Comparative Politics, Vol. 33, No. 4
(Jul., 2001), pp. 441-461¶ Ph.D. Program in Political Science of the City University of New York PS)
Cuba offers an intriguing case of unchanging political institutions set in the midst of strong pressures
for change. In the last decade alone Cuba has survived increasing U.S. threats and hostile actions, the
regional spread of democracy and democratic norms, the disappearance of key international allies, economic collapse,
widespread popular discontent, and the rebirth of some independent associational life. Many observers-journalists,
politicians, activists-have forecast the collapse of the Cuban regime at least since the end of the cold war, yet Cuban
political institutions persist with amazingly few changes.13 ¶ In contrast to the pronouncements of U.S. politicians and
Cuban-American leaders, most scholars do not foresee a Cuban transition to democracy in the short to ¶ medium
term.14 Indeed, even in the early 1990s, when Cuba was at the height of its worst economic crisis since the revolution,
many scholars were predicting Castro's political survival .15 Which democratization variables present in Cuba
have failed to produce a transition to democracy? Conversely, which factors absent from Cuba ¶ might have effected a
transition?
Relations High
US-Cuba Relations Improving Now
Haven 2013 (April 10, 2013 from Associated Press, Paul Haven foreign correspondent and staff
member http://news.yahoo.com/under-radar-cuba-us-often-together-182659594.html)
Cuba and the United States may be longtime enemies with a bucket overflowing with grievances, but the
fast return of a Florida couple who fled U.S. authorities with their two kidnapped children in tow
shows the Cold War enemies are capable of remarkable cooperation on many issues. Indeed,
diplomats and observers on both sides of the Florida Straits say American and Cuban law enforcement
officers, scientists, disaster relief workers, Coast Guard officials and other experts work together on
a daily basis, and invariably express professional admiration for each other. "I don't think the
story has been told, but there is a real warmth in just the sort of day-to-day relations between U.S.
and Cuban government officials," said Dan Whittle, who frequently brings scientific groups to the
island in his role as Cuba program director for the Environmental Defense Fund. "Nearly every time I
talk to American officials they say they were impressed by their Cuban counterparts. There really is a
high level of mutual respect." Almost none of these technical-level interactions make the headlines,
but examples are endless. Just last week, Cuba's top environmental official Ulises Fernandez and several island
oil experts attended a conference in New York of the International Association of Drilling Contractors after the State
Department expedited their visas. And in March, Cuba's leading weatherman, Jose Rubiera, traveled to North
Carolina on a fast-track visa to give a talk about hurricane evacuation procedures. Last year's Hurricane Sandy,
which slammed Cuba's eastern city of Santiago before devastating the northeastern United States, was a cruel
reminder that nature cares not about man's political squabbles. The American government maintains a Coast Guard
representative in Cuba, and the two countries work together to interdict suspicious boats. A U.S. diplomat involved
in the process told The Associated Press that security officials on both sides are on a first-name basis, and that the
Cubans happily accept FBI and Coast Guard baseball caps as gifts. The Hakkens are accused of kidnapping their
young sons from the custody of Sharyn's parents and sailing with them and his wife to Havana. Cuba promptly
informed the State Department of the couple's weekend arrival on the island, and worked with U.S. officials to send
the family home swiftly. Both sides praised the joint effort. "We would like to express our appreciation to the
Cuban authorities for their extensive cooperation to resolve this dangerous situation quickly," the U.S. Interests
Section in Havana, which Washington maintains instead of an embassy, wrote in a Wednesday statement. In
Washington, State Department spokesman Patrick Ventrell termed cooperation as "extensive," but said the case
should not be taken as a sign of political opening. "I'm not sure I would read into it one way or another," he said.
"This was cooperation on a specific law enforcement matter." Diplomats agree, and point to less dramatic examples
of cooperation as more germane. U.S. and Cuban diplomats must get authorization to travel outside each other's
capitals, something that was once used as a cudgel by both sides to get revenge for political slights. Lately, they say,
permission has been granted on an almost routine basis. American diplomats have travelled increasingly throughout
the island, for work and play. For its part, Cuba's top envoy in Washington, Jose Cabanas, recently visited Georgia,
Houston and New Orleans, among other places. At times, diplomatic cooperation has reached levels that
would be surprising even between friendly nations. During last month's World Baseball Classic, a
U.S. Interests Section official personally carried emergency visas for several Cuban coaches and support
staff on a trip to Guam and handed them off to a Tokyo-based colleague, a U.S. official told AP.
US-Cuba Relations Improving Now
Haven 2013 (April 10, 2013 from Associated Press, Paul Haven foreign correspondent and staff
member http://news.yahoo.com/under-radar-cuba-us-often-together-182659594.html)
Cuba and the United States may be longtime enemies with a bucket overflowing with grievances, but the
fast return of a Florida couple who fled U.S. authorities with their two kidnapped children in tow
shows the Cold War enemies are capable of remarkable cooperation on many issues. Indeed,
diplomats and observers on both sides of the Florida Straits say American and Cuban law enforcement
officers, scientists, disaster relief workers, Coast Guard officials and other experts work together on
a daily basis, and invariably express professional admiration for each other. "I don't think the
story has been told, but there is a real warmth in just the sort of day-to-day relations between U.S.
and Cuban government officials," said Dan Whittle, who frequently brings scientific groups to the
island in his role as Cuba program director for the Environmental Defense Fund. "Nearly every time I
talk to American officials they say they were impressed by their Cuban counterparts. There really is a
high level of mutual respect." Almost none of these technical-level interactions make the headlines,
but examples are endless. Just last week, Cuba's top environmental official Ulises Fernandez and several island
oil experts attended a conference in New York of the International Association of Drilling Contractors after the State
Department expedited their visas. And in March, Cuba's leading weatherman, Jose Rubiera, traveled to North
Carolina on a fast-track visa to give a talk about hurricane evacuation procedures. Last year's Hurricane Sandy,
which slammed Cuba's eastern city of Santiago before devastating the northeastern United States, was a cruel
reminder that nature cares not about man's political squabbles. The American government maintains a Coast Guard
representative in Cuba, and the two countries work together to interdict suspicious boats. A U.S. diplomat involved
in the process told The Associated Press that security officials on both sides are on a first-name basis, and that the
Cubans happily accept FBI and Coast Guard baseball caps as gifts. The Hakkens are accused of kidnapping their
young sons from the custody of Sharyn's parents and sailing with them and his wife to Havana. Cuba promptly
informed the State Department of the couple's weekend arrival on the island, and worked with U.S. officials to send
the family home swiftly. Both sides praised the joint effort. "We would like to express our appreciation to the
Cuban authorities for their extensive cooperation to resolve this dangerous situation quickly," the U.S. Interests
Section in Havana, which Washington maintains instead of an embassy, wrote in a Wednesday statement. In
Washington, State Department spokesman Patrick Ventrell termed cooperation as "extensive," but said the case
should not be taken as a sign of political opening. "I'm not sure I would read into it one way or another," he said.
"This was cooperation on a specific law enforcement matter." Diplomats agree, and point to less dramatic examples
of cooperation as more germane. U.S. and Cuban diplomats must get authorization to travel outside each other's
capitals, something that was once used as a cudgel by both sides to get revenge for political slights. Lately, they say,
permission has been granted on an almost routine basis. American diplomats have travelled increasingly throughout
the island, for work and play. For its part, Cuba's top envoy in Washington, Jose Cabanas, recently visited Georgia,
Houston and New Orleans, among other places. At times, diplomatic cooperation has reached levels that
would be surprising even between friendly nations. During last month's World Baseball Classic, a
U.S. Interests Section official personally carried emergency visas for several Cuban coaches and support
staff on a trip to Guam and handed them off to a Tokyo-based colleague, a U.S. official told AP.
US-Cuba relations increasing—talks indicate cooperation
Associated Press 6/24
(“Warmer Temperature In Cuba-US Relations”¶ Published: Monday | June 24, 2013 (http://jamaicagleaner.com/gleaner/20130624/news/news91.html)
HAVANA (AP):¶ They've hardly become allies, but Cuba and the United States (US) have taken some baby steps toward
rapprochement in recent weeks that have people on this island and in Washington wondering if a breakthrough in relations could
be just over the horizon.¶ Sceptics caution that the Cold War enemies have been here many times before, only to fall back into old recriminations.
But there
are signs that views might be shifting on both sides of the Florida Straits.¶ In the past week, the two
countries have held talks on resuming direct mail service, and announced a July 17 sit-down on
migration issues.¶ In May, a US federal judge allowed a convicted Cuban intelligence agent to return to the island. This month, Cuba
informed the family of jailed US government subcontractor Alan Gross that it would let an American doctor examine him, though the visit has
apparently not yet happened. President Raul Castro has also ushered in a series of economic and social changes, including making it easier for
Cubans to travel off the island.¶ Under the radar, diplomats
on both sides describe a sea change in the tone of their
dealings.¶ Only last year, Cuban state television was broadcasting grainy footage of American diplomats meeting with dissidents on Havana
streets and publicly accusing them of being CIA frontmen. Today, US diplomats in Havana and Cuban Foreign Ministry officials have easy
contact, even sharing home phone numbers.¶ Josefina Vidal, Cuba's top diplomat for North American affairs, recently travelled to Washington
and met twice with State Department officials - a visit that came right before the announcements of resumptions in the two sets of bilateral talks
that had been suspended for more than two years. Washington has also granted visas to prominent Cuban officials, including the daughter of
Cuba's president.¶ "These
recent steps indicate a desire on both sides to try to move forward, but also a
recognition on both sides of just how difficult it is to make real progress," said
Robert Pastor, a professor of international
relations at American University and former national security adviser on Latin America during the
Carter administration. "These are tiny, incremental gains, and the prospects of going backwards are equally high."¶ Among the things
that have changed, John Kerry has taken over as US secretary of state after being an outspoken critic of Washington's policy on Cuba while in the
Senate. President Barack Obama no longer has re-election concerns while dealing with the Cuban-American electorate in Florida, where there are
also indications of a warming attitude to negotiating with Cuba.¶ Overhauling economy¶ Castro, meanwhile, is striving to overhaul the island's
Marxist economy with a dose of limited free-market capitalism and may feel a need for more open relations with the US. ¶ While direct American
investment is still barred on the island, a rise in visits and money transfers by Cuban-Americans since Obama relaxed restrictions has been a boon
for Cuba's cash-starved economy.¶ Under the table, Cuban-Americans are also helping relatives on the island start private businesses and
refurbish homes bought under Castro's limited free-market reforms.¶ Several prominent Cuban dissidents have been allowed to travel recently due
to Castro's changes. The trips have been applauded by Washington, and also may have lessened Havana's worries about the threat posed by
dissidents.¶ Likewise, a US federal judge's decision to allow Cuban spy Rene Gonzalez to return home was met with only muted criticism inside
the United States, perhaps emboldening US diplomats to seek further openings with Cuba. ¶ To be sure, there is still far more that separates the
long-time antagonists than unites them.¶ The State Department has kept Cuba on a list of state sponsors of terrorism and another that calls into
question Havana's commitment to fighting human trafficking. The Obama administration continues to demand democratic change on an island
ruled for more than a half century by Castro and his brother Fidel. ¶ For its part, Cuba continues to denounce Washington's 51-year-old economic
embargo.¶ And then there is Gross, the 64-year-old Maryland native who was arrested in 2009 and is serving a 15-year jail sentence for bringing
communications equipment to the island illegally. His case has scuttled efforts at engagement in the past, and could do so again, US officials say
privately. Cuba has indicated it wants to trade Gross for four Cuban agents serving long jail terms in the United States, something Washington
has said it won't consider.¶ Upsetting Cuban-Americans¶ Ted Henken, a professor of Latin American studies at Baruch College in New York who
helped organise a recent US tour by Cuban dissident blogger Yoani Sanchez, said the Obama administration is too concerned with upsetting
Cuban-American politicians and has missed opportunities to engage with Cuba at a crucial time in its history.¶ "I think that a lot more would have
to happen for this to amount to momentum leading to any kind of major diplomatic breakthrough," he said. "Obama should be bolder and more
audacious."¶ Even these limited moves have sparked fierce criticism by those long opposed to engagement. Cuban-American congressman Mario
Diaz Balart, a Florida Republican, called the recent overtures "disturbing". ¶ "Rather than attempting to legitimise the Cuban people's oppressors,
the administration should demand that the regime stop harbouring fugitives from US justice, release all political prisoners and American
humanitarian aid worker Alan Gross, end the brutal, escalating repression against the Cuban people, and respect basic human rights," he said.¶
Another Cuban-American politician from Florida, Rep Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, scolded Obama for seeking "dialogue with the dictatorship." ¶
Despite that rhetoric, many experts think Obama would face less political fallout at home if he chose engagement because younger CubanAmericans seem more open to improved ties than those who fled immediately after the 1959 revolution. ¶ Of 10 Cuban-Americans interviewed by
The Associated Press on Thursday at the popular Miami restaurant Versailles, a de facto headquarters of the exile community, only two said they
were opposed to the US holding migration talks. Several said they hoped for much more movement. ¶ Jose Gonzalez, 55, a shipping industry
supervisor who was born in Cuba and came to the US at age 12, said he now favours an end to the embargo and the resumption of formal
diplomatic ties. "There was a reason that existed but it doesn't anymore," he said.
¶ Santiago Portal, a 65-year-old engineer who moved to the US 45 years ago, said more dialogue would be good. "The more exchange of all
types, the closer Cuba will be to democracy," he said.¶ Those opinions dovetail with a 2011 poll by Florida International University of 648
randomly selected Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade County that said 58 per cent favoured re-establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba. That
was a considerable increase from a survey in 1993, when 80 per cent of people polled said they did not support trade or diplomatic relations with
Cuba.¶ "In
general, there is an open attitude, certainly toward re-establishing diplomatic relations,"
said Jorge Duany, director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University. "Short of perhaps lifting
the embargo ... there seems to be increasing support for some sort of understanding with the Cuban
government."
Relations Infeasible
Cuba is unwilling to improve relations with the US
Lopez 13 (Vanessa, Research Associate at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies, March
25, 2013, http://ctp.iccas.miami.edu/FOCUS_Web/Issue187.htm) DCS
Obama entered the Oval Office having made promises to liberalize Cuba policy. His Administration
swiftly lifted restrictions on Cuban-American travel to Cuba as well as remittances sent to the island.
Cuba's response was to arrest a U.S. citizen. Alan Gross was working as a USAID subcontractor,
providing Jewish groups in the island with communications equipment. He was tried and sentenced to
15 years in a Cuban jail. The U.S. government said Gross's incarceration would prevent further
liberalization. Various notable personalities have travelled to Cuba seeking Gross's release, including
President Jimmy Carter and Governor Bill Richardson, but these efforts have all failed. Despite Gross’s
continued incarceration, in 2011, Obama also liberalized “people-to-people” travel, allowing more
university, religious, and cultural programs to travel to Cuba.
History demonstrates that unilateral U.S. efforts have had, and are having, no impact on Cuba's
leadership. On the contrary, the Cuban government has interpreted U.S. openings towards Cuba as
signs of weakness, which have resulted in Cuba's hostility towards the U.S. and in some instances, in
reckless actions such as Mariel and the Balsero Crisis.
Improved relations between the U.S. and Cuba is a laudable goal, but to be successful, Cuba must be a
willing participant. Cuba has an unambiguous pattern of harming U.S. interests when the U.S. has
engaged in attempts of unilateral rapprochement. If the U.S. would like to protect its interests, it
should demand that Cuba take the first step in any future efforts to improve relations between the two
countries and offer irreversible concessions.
No Transition
No Cuba Transition -- Castros will remain in power
Gutierrez 13 (Gabe Gutierrez, is an NBC News correspondent based in Atlanta, GA. Currently, he is in Miami covering the CubanAmerican reaction to Cuba’s transition.) “Skeptics question plan for Cuba transition,” by Gabe Gutierrez, NBC News ¶ 10:19 am on 02/25/2013
MIAMI – They’ll believe it when they see it.¶ Shortly after Raul Castro announced Sunday that he would
step down as Cuba’s president in 2018, hard-line Cuban exiles said they were skeptical that the announcement would mean any
real change for the communist-ruled island.¶ “Raul Castro will be in power until he dies,” said Orlando Gutierrez
Boronat of the Cuban Democratic Directory, an organization of Cuban exiles based in Miami. He views
recent moves by the Castro government as political gamesmanship and still speculates that Fidel
Castro’s niece, Mariela Castro, could eventually assume power. Others think it could be one of Raul
Castro’s sons, Alejandro.¶ “The Castro family has no intention of letting go,” said Gutierrez Boronat.
“They keep power within a very close familiar group, together with the people who’ve been helping
them in the state apparatus for the last 53 years.Ӧ On his blog, Mauricio Claver-Carone, the Executive Director of Cuba
Democracy Advocates, wrote: “Here’s a novel idea — how about letting the Cuban people choose their ‘new generation’ of leaders?”¶ Still,
other observers feel that the naming Sunday of Miguel Diaz-Canel, 52, as Castro’s vice president and top lieutenant represents the first sign of
political succession on the island.¶ Diaz-Canel is an electrical engineer who’s a rising star on Cuba’s political scene. He was a university
professor who became Minister of Education before being elected to Cuba’s Communist Party’s Political Bureau.¶ Perhaps most significantly,
he is now the first top government official that is not from the generation that fought with Fidel during the revolution.¶ “This is the first time
they’re actually thinking about some sort of succession plan that would not end with a Castro,” said Felice Gorordo, the co-founder of Raices de
Esperanza, or Roots of Hope, a group of young Cuban-Americans in Miami. “But a lot of this is to be determined.”¶ Professor Jaime Suchlicki, a
Cuba expert at the University of Miami, points out that there’s been talk of younger government officials being groomed for leadership before,
only to fizzle quickly.¶ “I don’t think Diaz-Canel has any base of power,” said Suchlicki. “He’s not military. He doesn’t have any tanks or a
regimen. Right now, he’s the man of the hour. Two years from now, he may not be.”¶ After light-heartedly hinting several days before that he
would be retiring, Raul Castro spoke to Cuba’s parliament Sunday. He began his second five-year term since officially succeeding his ailing
brother Fidel in 2008. He said it would be his last.¶ Castro also said his recent proposal to limit top officials to two five-year terms will soon be
adopted. Cuba is at a moment of “historic transcendence,” he told lawmakers, suggesting that the island needed to transition to a new
generation.¶ “This
looks like an attempt by Raul Castro to institutionalize a set of reforms that might
make the regime more predictable,” explained Professor Sebastian Arcos with Florida International University. “He’s
definitely moving away from the old Soviet system.Ӧ Since taking over from his brother, Castro has
expanded private enterprise and eased travel restrictions. But critics argue those changes have not
been significant enough – and have been aimed at preserving political power rather than improving human
rights.¶ “Fidel and Raul Castro are still in charge,” Gutierrez Boronat said. “U.S. law commands that the United
States not resume full financial, economic and political relations with Castro regime while the Castros are still in
power and while there are still political prisoners. None of that has changed.”
Solvency
1NC
1. Plan fails—US political system hamstrings effectiveness
Nimtz 9
August,-Professor of Political Science at the University of Minnesota, Cuban Solidarity and Disaster
Response, March 30, 2009 http://lap.sagepub.com/content/36/2/133.full.pdf+html?rss=1¶
How is it that an underdeveloped country that is incessantly alleged to be ¶ under a dictatorship can
do a far better job of saving the lives of its citizens ¶ when a hurricane strikes than a rich country with all the
trappings of liberal ¶ democracy? The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina demonstrates that this is not ¶ just an interesting academic
question but a matter of life and death. Even ¶ before then, international bodies such as the United Nations and the ¶ International Red Cross
often cited Cuba for its exemplary practices in dealing ¶ with hurricanes. Measured
in terms of preparation, loss of lives,
and recovery, ¶ the differences between Cuba and the United States Gulf Coast persist. Even in the 2008
season, when Cuba was assaulted by the most powerful hurricanes ¶ on record, it experienced the loss
of only five lives.¶ Opponents of the Cuban Revolution claim that its government can be more ¶ effective because it is more
hierarchically organized and more intrusive than ¶ liberal governments. Cuba is indeed a disciplined, organized, and well-armed ¶ society (and
for good reason, given Washington’s almost 50 years of hostility), ¶ but the
fact is that while evacuations for hurricanes are
mandatory, the ¶ authorities cannot force citizens to do so. More than simply its organization to ¶ defend itself,
Cuba’s most essential feature is the presence and reproduction ¶ of human solidarity. This explains
why Cuba, as an underdeveloped society, ¶ lacking many of the material resources available in the United States, can do ¶ a far
better job of educating and meeting the health needs of its citizens—as ¶ well as those in other countries—than its far wealthier
neighbor to the north.¶ What so distinguishes Cuba from the United States is that its citizens have ¶ a political system
that represents and acts on behalf of the working-class ¶ majority—in other words, substantive democracy. If some of
the forms of ¶ liberal democracy, especially competitive multiparty elections, are absent in ¶ Cuba, the substance of democracy—outcomes that
serve the interests of the ¶ majority—is in place, as measured by the life-and-death consequences of ¶ governmental action. Its limitations
notwithstanding, government in Cuba ¶ has proven to be far more responsive when it comes to protecting the lives of ¶ its citizens than that of
the United States. Cubans have a government that ¶ actively organizes solidarity.¶ The Cuban case therefore challenges standard liberal notions
of democracy ¶ and human rights. Because Cuba lacks the trappings of liberal or, more ¶ accurate, bourgeois democracy,
it does not neatly fit into such analyses. To the ¶ extent that conventional comparative analysis of democracy and human ¶ rights even
considers Cuba, the island is seen as an outlier or, in some cases, ¶ an outlier of outliers. The Cuban experience makes the case for a classanalytic ¶ perspective on the question of democracy—for the need to examine whose ¶ class interests are served by the state and the
government. This perspective ¶ reveals that the
Cuban working-class did what their counterparts to the north ¶
have yet to do; they took power out of the hands of the tiny capitalist class and ¶ consciously exercise it on their
own behalf. This fact, more than any other, ¶ explains why hurricanes have enormously different outcomes in two
societies ¶ separated by only 90 miles of sea but worlds apart socially and politically. As ¶ another hurricane,
the current economic crisis, assaults the entire globe, I ¶ confidently predict that workers will fare better in Cuba than
workers in ¶ countries where the rule of capital is in place.
2. Plan fails-- US and Cuba cooperation hurts mutual political interests
Kelman 7
Ilan, *postdoctoral fellow at the
National Center for Atmospheric Research “Weather-Related Disaster Diplomacy” pp. 9
http://www.ilankelman.org/articles1/ddwxsoc1.pdf Fall 2007
Why have Cuba and the U.S. found it so difficult to come ¶ closer together? The answer is the basic
politics of power in ¶ that the enmity further bolsters the power base of Castro and ¶ of many antiCastro politicians in the United States. The ¶ diplomatic dancing around weather-related activities—¶
punctuated by non-weather events such as 9/11 and the Elían¶ González affair—reflects the fact that
neither government ¶ wants long-term reconciliation because that would harm their ¶ political
interests. For hurricane disasters, that means that ¶ either country accepting post-hurricane aid from
its ¶ (perceived) enemy could be interpreted as a loss of face and ¶ victory for the other side. Thus,
political self-interest can ¶ supersede humanitarian imperatives.¶
3. Cuba doesn’t have strategy—Sandy still devastated Cuba
AP 13
Cuba still struggling to recover six months after Hurricane Sandy,
http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2013/04/27/cuba-still-struggling-to-recover-six-months-afterhurricane-sandy/, April 27, 2013
Many people in eastern Cuba are still living with family or in houses covered by flimsy makeshift rooftops six months after Hurricane
Sandy pummeled the island's eastern provinces, residents and aid workers said Thursday.¶ Many praised the government's efforts
to rebuild Santiago and other cities but said much work remains to recover from the storm, which caused 11
deaths in Cuba before raging up the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard and killing 72.¶ "It was very hard-hit, but Santiago is once again blossoming,"
Aristides Zayas, a receptionist in Santiago said in a phone interview. "Of course the magnitude was such that not everything can get off the
ground in six months. It will take time."¶ The half-year mark comes amid preparations for similar commemoration by states up and down the
U.S. East Coast, where Sandy blew ashore in New Jersey on Oct. 29 as a monster storm that resulted in billions of dollars in damage.¶ The halfyear mark comes amid preparations for similar commemoration by states up and down the U.S. East Coast, where Sandy blew ashore in New
Jersey on Oct. 29 as a monster storm that resulted in billions of dollars in damage.¶ Sandy had raked eastern Cuba four days earlier, causing
major crop losses and damaging an estimated 130,000 to 200,000 homes. The government has not said how many
of those have yet to be repaired or rebuilt.¶ Cuban scientists say Sandy's surge penetrated 50 yards (meters) inland and permanently altered
much of the eastern coastline, washing away entire beaches and depositing sand elsewhere.¶ Shortly after the storm hit, Cuban President Raúl
Castro visited Santiago and said the city looked like it had been "bombed."¶ Cuba's highly organized civil defense brigades mobilized to get
newly homeless people into shelters, distribute food and water and replant uprooted trees. Authorities also extended loans for rebuilding and
knocked 50 percent off the price of home materials for storm victims.¶ Communist Party newspaper Granma said Thursday that for visitors
today, "the first thing that catches one's attention and impresses ... is to find a clean and well-ordered city."¶ But residents said problems
remain.¶ "From what I hear some things are still lacking," said Sister Mirtha, a Roman Catholic nun in the town of El Cobre, 30 miles (50
kilometers) east of Santiago. "Some people have roofs, but others still do not. There are people who are getting rained on, and it's thanks to
neighbors that they have somewhere to go."¶ She said some who live in informal housing situations have had difficulty getting their hands on
building materials, because residents are required to show property titles to get the discounted items.¶ An international aid worker who has
been closely involved in the relief effort said construction
materials like bricks and corrugated iron rooftops are in
short supply since local production is not meeting demand, and many items must be imported. Some
families have moved back into damaged homes with just plastic sheets covering the roofs. ¶ "They've done
really well on re-establishing access to services like electricity and water, reopening roads, clearing out trees that have fallen down," the person
said, speaking on condition of anonymity in order to maintain the organization's relationship with island authorities. "All of that was quite quick
given the scale of the impact."¶ "But at the individual level there's still a lot of work that needs to be done ... and my sense is that the
government can't tend to every family's individual needs."¶ State-run news agency Prensa Latina reported this week that
Santiago provincial authorities are prioritizing construction to make sure everyone displaced by Sandy has a safe place to live, a mission that
takes on more urgency with the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season set to begin June 1.¶ There's also still plenty of work for international aid
groups, which are continuing to distribute things like water tanks, purification tablets, mattresses, sheets, towels and other household goods.¶
"There's still a lot of families that are living in very precarious situations," the aid worker said. "Now that's a bit of a concern, because the rainy
season's coming and you want to make sure that people have proper shelter."¶
4. Cuba says no
Padgett 7/3 [July 3, 2013, "Why This Summer Offers Hope For Better U.S.-Cuba Relations", TIM PADGETT, wlrn.org/post/why-summeroffers-hope-better-us-cuba-relations]
First,
communist Cuba really doesn’t want improved dialogue with Washington, since conflict with the
U.S. offers more political payoff on the island. Hence Cuban leader Raúl Castro’s 2009 Christmas gift to Obama: the arrest of
U.S. aid subcontractor Alan Gross on dubious espionage charges.¶ Second, the hardline U.S. Cuban exile lobby doesn’t want improved dialogue
with Havana, since conflict with Cuba offers (or has traditionally offered) more political payoff here. Hence the Cuban-American congressional
caucus’ efforts in 2011 to keep Obama from letting convicted Cuban spy René González return home to finish his probation, a fairly benign
gesture that might have enhanced the chances of Gross’ release.¶ And yet, despite all that recent cold-war commotion, could this finally be the
summer of love on the Florida Straits? Last month the Obama Administration and the Castro dictatorship started talks on re-establishing direct
mail service; this month they’ll discuss immigration guidelines. Diplomats on both sides report a more cooperative groove.¶ New Diplomacy¶ So
what happened that’s suddenly making it possible for the two governments to start some substantive diplomatic outreach for the first time in
years?¶ First, Castro finished crunching the numbers on Cuba’s threadbare economy, and the results scared him more than one of Yoani
Sánchez’s dissident blog posts. To wit, the island’s finances are held up by little more than European tourists and oil charity from socialist
Venezuela. He’s adopted limited capitalist reforms as the remedy, and to make them work he has to loosen the repressive screws a turn or
two.¶ That finally includes letting Cubans travel freely abroad, which gives them better opportunities to bring back investment capital. As a
result, says Carlos Saladrigas, a Cuban-American business leader in Miami and chairman of the Washington-based Cuba Study Group, “The
timing is right” for some U.S.-Cuban rapprochement.¶ “Cuba is clearly in a transitionary mode,” says Saladrigas. “They need to change to
reinsert themselves in the global order, they need to become more normal in their relations with other nations.”¶ Changing Attitudes¶ Second,
although the White House is still intimidated by the Cuban exile lobby, it’s had its own numbers to ponder -- namely, poll results from South
Florida’s Cuban-American community.¶ Over the past five years, surveys have consistently shown that Cuban-Americans, especially the more
moderate younger generation and more recently arrived Cubans, favor engagement with Cuba as a way of promoting democratization there.
Some polls even indicate that a majority want to ditch the failed 51-year-old U.S. trade embargo against Cuba.¶ As a result, Obama -- who
according to one exit poll won 48% of Florida’s Cuban vote in last year’s presidential election, which would be a record for a Democratic
candidate -- feels more elbow room for diálogo with the Castro regime. The Administration even recently let González return to Cuba.¶ “The
Cuban-American community in Miami is definitely changing,” says Cuban-American Elena Freyre, president of the Foundation for Normalization
of U.S.-Cuba Relations in Miami. “It’s reached kind of a critical mass at this point, and I think people are ready to try something different.”¶
Freyre notes that Obama’s appointment this year of former Massachusetts Senator John Kerry as the new U.S. secretary of state is also having
an impact.¶ “Mr. Kerry has always felt [the U.S.’s] position with Cuba made no sense,” she says. “He’s been very vocal about thinking that if we
engage Cuba we will get a lot further.” Kerry, for example, believes the U.S. should lift its ban on U.S. citizen travel to Cuba.¶ Conflict As
Scapegoat¶ Still, there are just as many reasons to be pessimistic -- starting with the imprisonment of the 64-year-old Gross, who is serving a
15-year prison sentence in Cuba. Saladrigas says that’s a sign that communist
“Conflict with
hardliners still hold sway on the island.¶
the U.S. has been the perfect scapegoat for many of the problems and failures of [their]
revolution,” he notes.¶ The Castro regime says the U.S. does its own part to further that conflict by keeping Cuba on a list of state sponsors
of terrorism, even though there appears to be scant evidence for doing so. Cuban-American Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart recently told Fox
News that Cuba should be viewed “more like North Korea, or compare it to Iran.”
5. Can’t replicate Cuban strategy—fundamental differences
Diaz 2003 (Dr. Lino Naranjo Diaz, University of Santiago de Compostela, Climate Center and Institute
of Meteorology of Cuba “Hurricane Early Warning in Cuba: An Uncommon Experience”)
Cuba's experience is hard to be fully applied in a western-type society because
it is supported by very different societal and economic bases. Undoubtedly,
ideological basis, societal and economic structures performed under a
communist government tends to favour its capability to take actions directly on
any social or economical activity. However, in the Cuban case, the conflict with the United
States and the embargo establish important singularities. A society severely stressed by an economic
embargo, among others factors, has to be very concerned about natural disaster impacts. Besides, under a
strong ideological struggle against capitalism, the Cuban government considers itself under a permanent
military aggression risk, developing a military doctrine which involves every stage of society creating quick
reaction capacities for emergency response. In fact, Cubans have been forced to be more efficient in facing
natural disasters in a scenario of political conflict with the US government. This is maybe an opposite view
of the disaster diplomacy approach. Protective measures under a conflict are developed in such a way that
the enemy would not be able to take advantages from the disaster. In the Cuban experience, not everything
is politics. There is a solid historical background of social awareness about hurricane risk and technical
capabilities in hurricane warning that it may be unique in the Americas. Despite singularities, some lessons
could be established from the Cuban experience in EWS. A strong societal awareness could be constructed
over public perceptions of risk. This is a long term educational task in many countries under hurricane risk.
Poverty, isolation, lack of education, and inclusive traditional feelings about fate are majors obstacles to
reach this goal. The development of capabilities in hurricane monitoring and prediction are a crucial matter
to reach an effective EWS. Almost all countries in the Caribbean and Central America area are highly
dependent on the NHC products in the framework of the WMO region IV coordination. This ensures access
to basic information. However, under the direct impact of a hurricane, national
monitoring capability plays the main role, and many countries are not able to
assume this responsibility. Regarding this last topic, the National Hurricane Center plays a very
important role in the Early Warning System strategies in the Caribbean, including Cuba. However, this role
cannot be a substitute for those of the national weather services. Unfortunately, many governments in the
area do not have a strategy to build capacities and leave almost all warning responsibilities to the NHC.
The achievement of adequate EWS is only possible when national authorities (political, public and private,
all together) have the will to make a sustained commitment in establishing measures to educate and protect
people. And this is the most difficult task. It may be unreachable for many
countries in the current century.
Cuba Says No
Cuba will say no, no interest in hurricane cooperation with the US¶
CNN 8 ¶http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/09/15/cuba.us/ September 15, 2008¶ “Cuba
refuses hurricane aid offer, U.S. says”
The United States Agency for International Development, USAID, on Monday urged the Cuban government to
think again about its refusal of direct U.S. assistance for hurricane victims.¶ "We call on the Cuban government
to reconsider their decision on the United States offer, which we made with no preconditions and whose only
objective was to get relief to people in dire need." USAID administrator Henrietta Fore said in a Monday afternoon
conference call with reporters.¶ Fore said the United States over the weekend had offered to begin relief flights as
soon as Tuesday to Cuba, on civilian aircraft, delivering plastic sheeting, blankets and hygiene kits. The first flight
would have brought aid worth $349,000.¶ "And while we wait for the Cuban government's reconsideration of the
United States offer we will continue to implement other components of our $5 million assistance package," Fore
added.¶ The United State will immediately obligate approximately $1.5 million in emergency humanitarian assistance
to reputable international relief organizations and nongovernmental organizations. ¶ Fore said she will be in Honduras
on Tuesday to inspect hurricane damage and review aid needs there.¶ Earlier in the day, State Department
spokesman Sean McCormack gave the first information that United States had made a weekend offer -- and the
Cuban government had refused -- of $5 million in hurricane relief.¶
No Co-Op -- Political Differences
International politics makes plan impossible
Christa Maciver 12. [ Disaster Diplomacy: A brief Review. Class of 1994. Charleston Academy.
http://servantforge.org/sites/default/files/Disaster%20Diplomacy%20FINAL%20Lit%20Review.pdf] December 2012
The general assessment Kelman presents in his disasters provide a catalyst for transformation but do not create it. ( Kelman 2006; Kelman
2007a, Kelman 2007b) As a result of various case studies, Kelman discovered that disaster diplomacy typically follows three possible outcomes
of: short term, long term, and the opposite desired effect. Short term outcomes occur when the disaster provides new avenues for negotiation
between opposing parties. However, for this to be successful there needs to be an existing foundation for negotiation. Long term outcomes find
that pre-existing prejudices are strong factors in diplomacy and that memory of collaboration during the disaster quickly fades. Within
outcomes that produce the opposite desired effect—diplomatic efforts backfire and conflict is
inflamed. (disasterdiplomacy.org,Kelman 2006, Kelman2011) In spite of potentially negative outcomes, the fact remains that response to
disasters normally bring opposing communities together for a short time. (Weker 2010) Eric Weker (2010) wrote and article on disaster politics
for Harvard International Review that acknowledged this window of opportunity, but then asked what the barrier might be to releasing the
potential for this window. A few of the barriers he cited are donor bias, donor fatigue, and the “CNN Effect” (where the media sensationalizes a
disaster only for a short time). The biggest issue, however, is politics and how they sweep back into play almost immediately
after a disaster, when the hope would be for continued a-political involvement. Kelman’s research offers similar assessments to those of
Weker. On one level, reconciliation
has never been a priority when responding to disasters, which leads to a
lack of political forethought and the subsequent likelihood that diplomatic initiatives will fail. ( Kelman
2012, Kelman 2011) These barriers to diplomatic process are rooted in the much deeper conceptual debate
surround the marriage of divorce of politics with humanitarian action. According to purists, typically the
International Committee of the Red Cross, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent, and Medecins San Frontiers—
humanitarian action can only be termed as such if its space is devoid of politics. This is due to an understanding
of humanitarianism as responsive action (to both disasters and complex emergencies) that ensure the “equal dignity” of all human beings. The
only way this can be done is through impartiality due to its implication “that assistance is based solely on need, without discrimination among
reciepients because of nationality, race, religion, or other factors.” This humanitarian imperative demands that any disaster-related activity
should be free of politics. Disaster diplomacy, therefore,
should not even be an option because its directive
lies outside the mandate of humanitarian action. The other issue on this level is, again, the media. The hyper or “CNN
Effect” can derail goodwill be setting unattainable standards.
No Co-op -- Plan Hurts Political Interests
US and Cuba will refuse to coop, hurts political power
Kelman 12
Ilan, *postdoctoral fellow at the ¶ National Center for Atmospheric Research “The Many ¶ Failures of ¶
Disaster ¶ Diplomacy” http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/o/archives/2012/sep12_observerweb.pdf
September 2012
Mainly because people make active choices ¶ regarding politics leading to active choices ¶ against
diplomacy or against enacting disaster-related activities, either before or after a ¶ disaster. Reconciliation
is not necessarily an ¶ important objective, despite the potential for ¶ joint life-saving actions.¶ Cuba and
the United States face a similar hurricane ¶ threat—often the same hurricane. Plenty of scientific and ¶
technical cooperation occurs without the politicians knowing about it, such as researching and
monitoring hurricanes. ¶ When Cuba is hit by a hurricane, the U.S. government frequently offers aid
and the Cuban government is impressively ¶ clever at finding excuses to avoid accepting it.¶ When the
United States was slammed by Hurricane ¶ Katrina in 2005, Cuba’s government offered more than 1,000
¶ doctors and several tons of medical supplies. The U.S. government initially did not acknowledge the
offer. Nonetheless, led ¶ by Fidel Castro, Cuba’s parliament held a minute’s silence for ¶ Hurricane
Katrina’s victims. Immediately afterwards, they ¶ passed a resolution attacking the U.S. government on
other ¶ topics.¶ In the case of Cuba and the United States, mutual enmity ¶ has bolstered the power base
of Cuban leader Fidel Castro. It ¶ also bolsters the power base of many U.S. anti-Castro politicians.
During the disputed U.S. presidential election of 2000, ¶ in which George W. Bush was eventually
declared to be the ¶ winner, Florida was the deciding state. Florida remains a key ¶ swing state and is
heavily influenced by Cuban-Americans who have strong anti-Castro feelings.
US aid fails because of Cuban political relations
Aguirre 05 (B. E. Aguirre, Disaster Research Center: University of Delaware,
http://www.ijmed.org/articles/316/download/ International Journal of Mass Emergencies and
Disasters¶ November 2005, Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 55-71¶ “Cuba’s Disaster Management Model: Should It Be
Emulated?”) PS
Extensive government-specific programs of humanitarian assistance ¶ (such as the Canadian
International Development Agency) have not operated for long in the island, for they fall victim to the
vagaries of international political relations, and this sensitivity is particularly true with U.S.
government offerings of humanitarian assistance, which most ¶ recently in the case of Hurricanes
Michelle and Dennis were refused. It ¶ is also the case that in most instances the Cuban government is
willing ¶ to recognize both the full magnitude of sudden disasters as well as ¶ accept its responsibility to
assist the victims of disasters (Thompson ¶ and Gaviria 2004), although it tries to structure the
distribution of ¶ disaster and humanitarian assistance in such a way—for example its ¶ treatment of the
aid provided by CARITAS—so as to dissimulate if ¶ not to misrepresent to the public the international
sources of the aid, ¶ representing such assistance as its own (Gunn 1995)
Cuba Hurricane Model Cannot Work
Cuba’s hurricane model not applicable to other countries
Aguirre 2005 (“Cuba’s Disaster Management Model: Should It Be Emulated? B.E. Aguirre Disaster
Research Center, University of Delaware Professor in the Department of Sociology and Criminal Justice
and core faculty member at Disaster Research Center)
Advancing Mr. Wisner’s arguments, Martha Thompson and Izaskun Gaviria, from Oxfam America
(2004), write about “the lessons in risk reduction from Cuba,” claiming that Cuba’s
development model reduces risk and vulnerability because of its emphasis on universal access to services, policies
to reduce social and economic disparities, investment in human development, government investment in infrastructure, and social and economic
organization (p. 16). In an otherwise well documented book, they write that the most important part of disaster mitigation in Cuba is “the political
commitment on the part of the government to safeguard human lives” (p. 22), which is said to create trust between the government and the people
These claims contradict other facts about the situation in Cuba and are made
without an attempt to address these different perspectives, so that they act as rhetorical statements
that do not help elucidate the state of disaster mitigation in the island. Thompson and Gaviria praise the legal
during times of emergencies (27).
framework in which the National Civil Defense, part of Cuba’s military establishment, is a key organization, without recognizing the grave practical
limitations of civil defense national disaster programs that eventually were recognized in the United States, Australia, and other parts of the world
and resulted in their replacement in many of these countries by civil emergency management systems such as the Federal Emergency Management
Agency in the United States (Haddow and Bullock 2004; Drabek 2003). They declare that in Cuba there is universal access to government services
without commenting on the continued racism, the tremendous disparities in wealth that exist, and the impact of the hard currency economy on
social stratification in the country. Their
claim that the Cuban model of disaster prevention is exportable ignores
the fact that Cuba’s very important but limited successes in protecting its citizenry from the immediate
impact of certain types of sudden disasters occurs in the context of an authoritarian political system
that on other grounds aggravates the vulnerability of its population (San Martin 2004) and that has
been rejected by all of the other nations in Latin America at the present time. They do not recognize that Cuba’s
policies, like those in the US and other countries, are a mixed bag of social practices and cultural complexes that both increase vulnerability and
resilience of the population to disasters. The customary structuring of the lives of people through the activities of the Committees for the Defense
of the Revolution, the Federation of Cuban Women, the Confederation of Cuban Workers, and other mass organizations of the state provide ready
access for official disaster programs to the neighborhood, schools, places of work, and other dimensions of social life.
This structuring at
times of impending disasters facilitates the transmission of information to threatened populations and
of the warnings and other protective instructions that are given by the authorities, as well as the
enforcement of evacuation advisories. Evacuations are used very effectively in Cuba to move people
from areas expected to be, or exposed to, high winds, flooding, and sea surges. Seldom have they
involved forced movement of people, even though in Cuba the authorities have the right to compel
evacuations, which is not the case in the United States and other countries. The outcome is an enviable
record of minimizing the morbidity and mortality of these hazards. Cuba’s warning system, useful as it
is, is only one of a number of alternative versions of effective integrated warning systems. It works in
Cuba because of the distinct features of the society previously alluded to; it would not work in other
societies where these features are absent. It is based on an extraordinary degree of control of the
population by these state agencies, as shown by a passing remark of a high official of the Cuban
government in charge of disaster response who indicated that whenever a hurricane threatened the
country, “the Civil Defense authority becomes the supreme authority in the province and all other
institutions are subordinated to their direction” (Focus 2002). This sort of military control by the Civil
Defense System, effective as it is in Cuba, does not usually take place in more pluralist societies. Other
versions of integrated warning systems exist elsewhere, with their own strengths and limitations. Thus, it
is not that Cuba’s system has universal applicability. The claim that the rest of the developing world
should emulate the Cuban model ignores its basis in the unique social organizational features of Cuban
society that may not be present in these other countries.
Japan CP
Text: Japan should cooperate with the United States and Cuba in disaster relief
CP Solvency
Japanese cooperation is critical
McDermott et al. 10 “Japan – U.S. Sister Cities Natural Disaster Preparedness and Response
Exchange” Jim McDermott, US Representative, et. al. 17 September, 2010.
<http://peacewindsamerica.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Proceedings-2010-Sister-CitiesExchange.pdf>
About the Exchange¶ The inaugural Japan – U.S. Sister Cities Natural Disaster Preparedness and Response
Exchange ¶ brought together senior Japanese and U.S. disaster management professionals to build
capacity, ¶ develop connectivity, and increase collaboration. The Exchange is amulti-year program designed ¶ to analyze
lessons learned, share best practices, and explore innovative methods for the purpose ¶ of improving disaster preparedness and response. ¶
Why Japan – U.S.?¶ The
Pacific “Ring of Fire,” one of the most natural disaster-prone regions in the world, is
effective disaster ¶ preparedness,
management, and response capabilities for these cities is critical to public safety, ¶ as well as to political and
economic stability. As the primary responders to natural disasters¶ throughout the region, and as neighbors sharing borders on
the Pacific, Japan and the United States ¶ have a special interest in advancing bilateral cooperation
and exchange concerning natural disaster ¶ preparedness and response.¶ Why Sister Cities?¶ As authorities in their
home to ¶ millions of people in vibrant cities that drive their national economies. Providing
communities, city disaster managers and planners form the front line of ¶ disaster preparedness and response. For this reason, Peace Winds
America and the Seattle Office ¶ of Emergency Management have targeted Sister Cities and their prefecture/state counterparts on ¶ both sides
of the Pacific for participation in the Japan – U.S. Exchange.
Extension Solvency
Japan is the world leader in readiness, especially in metropolitan areas
Rauhala 11 “How Japan Became a Leader in Disaster Preparation” Emily Rauhala, writer for Time
World. Time World. March 11 2011.
<http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2058390,00.html>
Just before noon on the morning of Sept. 1, 1923, a massive earthquake shook Japan's Kanto Plain, hitting the busy industrial cities of Tokyo
and Yokohama. The quake leveled buildings and sent cooking stoves tumbling to the ground. Fanned by typhoon winds off Tokyo Bay, the
flames spread across the flattened landscape, raining ash on evacuees. Rumors spread that Koreans were looting and thousands were
massacred in retribution. By the time the Kanto Plain stopped seething, at least 100,000 people were dead and most of the region lay in ruin.
The devastation was so complete, the loss so profound, that Japan considered moving the capital.¶ Instead, they rebuilt — very carefully. Fireprone, wood and brick buildings were replaced with six-story towers of concrete and steel. Motorways were built, a subway system planned
and an airport erected. By 1935, the population rivaled that of New York and London.¶ (See pictures of the massive earthquake that struck off
the coast of Japan on March 11, 2011.)¶ Perched on the Ring of Fire, an arc of seismic activity that encircles the Pacific Basin, Japan is one of the
most earthquake-prone countries in the world — but it's also one of the best equipped to handle them. Having survived the quake of 1923, the
utter the devastation of World War II and, later, in 1995, the earthquake in Kobe, the country has done more than most when it comes to
disaster preparedness.¶ Japan is arguably the world leader in readiness. Every year since 1960, the country marks Disaster
Prevention Day on Sept. 1, the anniversary of the 1923 Tokyo quake. At many Japanese schools, first-day-of-class celebrations include an
evacuation drill. Even the Prime Minster participates: at this year's closing ceremony, Naoto Kan spoke about the importance of "mutual aid" in
the government will prepare itself for disaster, together with the
people, so that it can confidently say that 'Providing is preventing,' " he said.¶ Japan boasts the world's most
times of crisis. "I would like to ensure that
sophisticated earthquake early-warning systems. Emergency drills organized by public and private organizations work, among other things, to
transport "stranded" commuters from their offices to their homes. Japan's tsunami warning service, set up in 1952, consists of 300 sensors
around the archipelago, including 80 aquatic sensors that monitor seismic activity 24/7. The network is designed to predict the height, speed,
location and arrival time of any tsunami heading for the Japanese coast. Tsunami safety has been a focus of coastal city planning throughout
the nation. On Japan's east coast, where tsunamis frequently hit, hundreds of earthquake and tsunami proof shelters have been built. Some
cities have built tsunami walls and floodgates so that the waves don't travel inland through river systems.¶ When
disaster does hit, as
it did today, Japan's buildings fare relatively well . In 1981 Japan updated its building guidelines with an eye to earthquake
science. The devastating Kobe earthquake, which claimed some 5,100 lives, spurred another round of research on earthquake safety and
disaster management. In 2000, the country's building codes were revised again, this time with specific requirements and mandatory checks.
Even at the local level, preparedness is a priority: from 1979 to 2009, Shizuoka prefecture alone poured more than $4 billion into improving the
safety of hospitals, schools and social welfare facilities. Though Japanese cities often shake, they rarely topple. "This gives me great faith in
Japan's building codes," said Hong Kong University's Charles Schencking, a historian who studies earthquakes in Japan.¶ Of course, all the
preparation in the world can't stop the earth from trembling. Today's quake and the waves that followed have taken hundreds of lives and
triggered tsunami warnings across Pacific. The damage is extensive and will take much time to repair. Still, whatever the extent of the death
and destruction, it would be much worse if not for Japan's hard-earned culture of preparedness.¶
Japan has balanced preparedness
Rauhala 11 “How Japan Became a Leader in Disaster Preparation” Emily Rauhala, writer for Time
World. Time World. March 11 2011.
<http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2058390,00.html>
Typhoons and hurricanes are among ¶ the most well-known natural disaster ¶ threats in the Asia
Pacific. Mitigating ¶ their impact involves both tangible ¶ and intangible efforts. Often called ¶ “hard” measures,
tangible mitigation ¶ efforts include building and maintaining protective infrastructure such as ¶ storm
surge barriers and water gates. ¶ “Soft” or intangible measures involve ¶ developing evacuation plans
and ¶ educating the population for proper ¶ preparedness. ¶ In Osaka, the way forward for ¶ improving hurricane
and typhoon ¶ mitigation entails maintaining a ¶ balance between both the tangible and intangible
elements of preparedness, as explained by Osaka ¶ Prefecture Crisis Management Senior Executive Masami Kikuchi and Osaka City
Office of Emergency ¶ Management Officer Kenji Bo. In addition to its automated water gates, Osaka is equipped
with ¶ highly effective storm surge barriers. The State of Hawaii, which is at particular risk for
tsunamis, ¶ does not have the same kind of funding for flood control infrastructure as cited in Japan.
The ¶ majority of mitigation measures in Hawaii have been “soft,” according to Deputy Director of the ¶ Honolulu Emergency Management
Department Peter Hirai (above). To some extent, the emphasis ¶ on hard versus soft mitigation measures reflects a difference in fiscal
priorities.¶ Given
the relative frequency of typhoon and hurricane warnings, a common challenge faced
by ¶ both Japan and the U.S. is maintaining public vigilance for the serious threats that hurricanes and ¶ typhoons pose.
As procedures and prudence often call for warning and evacuation orders to be ¶ issued even when a storm does not make landfall, there is
well-founded fear among disaster ¶ managers that the public will begin to disregard instructions and forget the lessons learned from ¶ previous
disasters. Constant public messaging and communication were cited as the most effective ¶ solution for this challenge. Japan
has had
success in educating the public through a rigorous ¶ disaster awareness program that begins in grade school and is reinforced when
a disaster strikes ¶ through the use of neighborhood public address systems.
The US can learn from Japanese disaster preparedness and engineering
Fisher, 2012 “4 Japanese lessons for withstanding big storms” Max Fisher, writer for Washington Post.
Washington Post. October 29, 2012.
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2012/10/29/4-japanese-lessons-forwithstanding-big-storms/>
Few countries know bad weather like Japan, where typhoons hit regularly and winds can reach up to 94 mph, as they did
earlier this year. And judging by some of the engineering and planning in the coastal mega-city of Tokyo, few
countries are better prepared. As Hurricane Sandy makes landfall on the U.S. East Coast, here are
some Japanese lessons for what is this week an American problem.¶ 1) Obsessive drilling. Schools and
office buildings hold regular and rigorous emergency drills, with even the prime minister sometimes participating to
underscore their importance. “Japan is arguably the world leader in readiness,” a Time magazine reporter wrote last year,
after the world watched in amazement as Japanese made orderly queues and followed widely observed protocol in response to the March
earthquake and tsunami. In many ways, the country’s storm preparedness is a byproduct of its efforts to prepare for earthquakes, which are
both more difficult to foresee and potentially deadlier. Officials emphasize that all citizens, not just emergency response officials, must maintain
constant readiness.¶ 2) Massive
underground drainage. The enormous, almost haunting chambers underneath the Tokyo district
of Edogawa are meant to reduce flooding from storms by 80 percent. The facility, photos of which are provided by the
Edogawa government, looks like something from a science fiction film set, and is even open to tourists. The runoff silos have ceilings 83 feet
high and are connected by four miles of tunnels. Here’s a map of the system:¶ 3) Swaying skyscrapers. Many of Tokyo’s buildings are
designed to withstand powerful earthquakes, which also makes them well-suited to handle typhoon-strength winds. This allows them to sway,
are
built with deep foundations, the most advanced supported by shock absorbers that allow the structure to move with the earth,
which is safer but alarming to watch. “Modern buildings – and Japan’s addiction to concrete, means most tall buildings are very modern –
rather than against it,” the Guardian explained last year. This is in part a legacy of the country’s devastation after a 1923 earthquake – the
anniversary of which is now Disaster Prevention Day in Japan – and World War II. Because so
many buildings are so new,
unlike those in U.S. cities such as New York, they often boast newer technology, from the foundation
to the elevator shafts. ¶ 4) Fear. A 2004 study published in the Journal of Risk Research found that Japanese citizens were
far more likely to be prepared for major storms – planning escape routes, bolstering such home improvements as roofs and
drainage, and taking out insurance policies – if they reported that they were “fearful” or “very fearful” of such a storm, as many people did.
Strikingly, the study found that this didn’t correlate as strongly with people who had experienced more storms or storm damage in the past,
meaning that fear itself seems to be driving their preparedness. I don’t know how to compare the degree of fear of storms in Japan versus in
the United States, but it’s worth noting the anecdotal reports of East Coast city grocery stores selling out of wine but not staples.
PTX
1NC -- Plan Unpopular -- Public
Neither political party likes Cuba -- don’t want to engage
Gallup 13
http://washington.cbslocal.com/2013/03/21/democrats-republicans-differ-most-on-respectiveattitudes-towards-israel-cuba/ “Gallup: Dems, GOP Differ Most On Respective Attitudes Towards Israel,
Cuba” March 21, 2013
Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. have relatively similar opinions of most foreign countries, but they differ the most on their respective
views of Cuba and Israel.¶ According to Gallup’s annual World Affairs survey, Democrats have a more positive view of a
wider range of countries than their Republican counterparts – especially in their favorable support of Cuba, China, Egypt and Mexico.
Meanwhile, Republicans showed more favorable attitudes toward only a few countries, the most notable being Israel.¶ Forty
five
percent of Democrats expressed a favorable attitude toward Cuba, while only 24 percent of
Republicans agreed – the largest, 21 percent partisan gap. Similarly, 52 percent of Democrats expressed a favorable attitude for China
while only 32 percent of Republicans expressed this attitude.¶ As far as countries favored more by Republicans, Israel showed the most notable
gap between the parties with 78 percent of the GOP having a favorable attitude toward Israel, while only 60 percent of Democrats agreed.¶
Republicans also expressed slightly higher favorable ratings for Germany, Great Britain and Japan.¶ These results are from Gallup’s annual
World Affairs survey, conducted Feb. 7-10 this year. As Gallup previously reported, overall U.S. favorability toward the 22 rated countries
ranges from a high of 91 percent for Canada to a low of 9 percent for Iran.¶ Republicans and Democrats in 2005 — unlike today — viewed
China, Egypt, and Mexico in a similar fashion. Since 2005, Americans’ overall views of Egypt and Mexico have become less positive, but
Republicans’ views have dropped more significantly than Democrats’, thus widening the partisan gap. Democrats’ views of China have not
changed since 2005, while Republicans’ views have become more negative.¶ Although a clear majority of Republicans and Democrats are
positive toward France, the 18-percentage-point difference between the 82 percent favorable rating from Democrats and the 64 percent
favorable rating among Republicans is the fifth largest across any of the 22 countries measured this year.
1NC -- Plan Unpopular -- Republicans
Republican platform is against the plan
LA Times 12 http://articles.latimes.com/2012/aug/20/news/la-pn-republican-platform-doesntabandon-cuba-after-all-20120820 “Republican platform doesn't abandon Cuba after all” August 20, 2012
Cuban Americans can relax. The 2012 Republican platform will continue the party’s hard-line rhetoric toward the
Communist regime in Cuba, though it does not call for reversing President Obama’s decision to relax restrictions on travel and
financial assistance to residents of the island.¶ An earlier Politics Now post stated incorrectly that the GOP platform was silent on
Cuba. A delegate on the party platform’s foreign policy and defense subcommittee, who had a copy of the pertinent language,
expressed surprise during a drafting session on the plank Monday that Cuba wasn’t mentioned. A GOP aide with access to the
platform confirmed that the foreign policy portion section did not mention Cuba.¶ The actual text of this year’s GOP platform draft is
a closely held document, crafted under the control of the Mitt Romney campaign.¶ The draft planks were distributed to the platform
delegates -- on paper only, not digitally -- making it much more difficult for copies to circulate surreptitiously to reporters or to interest
groups that might want to criticize.¶ But after the Politics Now post stirred up a swarm of concern, particularly in south Florida, the
campaign agreed to provide the platform language about Cuba, some of it directly lifted from the 2008 document.¶ Four years
ago, the platform stated that the Republicans “support restrictions on trade with, and travel to, Cuba.” The
2012 version also contains language that points in that direction.¶ But there is no specific call to tighten the president’s
loosening of restrictions, which made it easier for Cuban Americans to visit relatives on the island and send them money, and has
been popular with some Latino voters.¶ Here is the language on Cuba, as released Monday night by the Romney campaign:¶
"Alternatively, we will stand with the true democracies of the region against both Marxist subversion and the drug lords, helping them
to become prosperous alternatives to the collapsing model of Venezuela and Cuba.¶ "We affirm our friendship with the people of
Cuba and look toward their reunion with the rest of our hemispheric family. The anachronistic regime in Havana which rules them is
a mummified relic of the age of totalitarianism, a state-sponsor of terrorism. We reject any dynastic succession of power within
the Castro family and affirm the principles codified in U.S. law as conditions for the lifting of trade, travel, and financial
sanctions: the legalization of political parties, an independent media, and free and fair internationally-supervised elections. We
renew our commitment to Cuba’s courageous pro-democracy movement as the protagonists of Cuba’s inevitable liberation and
democratic future. We call for a dedicated platform for the transmission of Radio and TV Marti and for the promotion of Internet
access and circumvention technology as tools to strengthen the pro-democracy movement. We support the work of the Commission
for Assistance to a Free Cuba and affirm the principles of the Cuban Adjustment Act of 1966, recognizing the rights of Cubans
fleeing Communism."
Politicians hate the plan – especially Republicans
Think Progress 13
http://thinkprogress.org/security/2013/04/09/1838661/rubio-beyonce-cuba/?mobile=nc “How The
GOP Response To Beyoncé’s Cuba Trip Highlights Broken Policy”
Apr 9, 2013
Republicans continued on Tuesday to call on the Obama administration to answer questions surrounding superstars Beyoncé and Jay-Z’s trip to
Cuba, inadvertently showcasing the massive failure that is U.S. policy towards the communist island nation.¶ Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) on
Monday joined those demanding answers from the White House on just who approved the celebrity couple’s trip to Cuba for their fifth
wedding anniversary. Meanwhile, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) — co-author of the letter to the Treasury Department that kicked off the
“scandal” — appeared on CNN on Tuesday morning to continue to fan the flames, questioning whether the trip was taken illegally:¶ ROSLEHTINEN: No one is above the law even if you are the diva Beyoncé.That’s wonderful that she is famous and rich, and Jay-Z — everybody loves
him too, but no one’s above the law.¶ Reuters is reporting the
Treasury Department did approve of the trip, under the
“people-to-people” licenses the Obama administration first created in 2009. Under the provisions of the licenses, travelers cannot
participate in typical tourist activities such as beachgoing. Instead, according to Reuters’ source, every minute of the power couple’s trip was
planned out to comply with the rules, where even “a walk around the Old City of Havana, mobbed by crowds of excited Cuban spectators, was
led by Miguel Coyula, one of the city’s leading architects.”¶ Though it seems inherently ridiculous and political for Florida Republicans to target
Mr. and Mrs. Carter, the whole instance shines the spotlight on one of the most lengthy failed policies in U.S history. The U.S. embargo on Cuba
was first put into place with the rise of communist leader Fidel Castro into power in 1960. A total ban on trade with and travel to the island just
ninety miles off the Florida coast, the intention was to suffocate the Castro regime while still young, allowing the restoration of democracy.
More than fifty years later, Castro is still alive, though no longer running the country, with no signs that the system he set up will collapse any
time soon.¶ The rules currently in place surrounding the embargo are easily — and frequently — dodged by Americans seeking to visit the
isolated island. Additionally, only rarely are those who slip into Cuba actually punished, with only two having to pay the fine associated with
illegal travel. Had Beyoncé and Jay-Z actually broken the law in traveling to Cuba, they would have paid acombined $15,000 — hardly an
amount that would be worthy of Congressional investigation.¶ Experts at CAP and the Cato Institute alike agree that the policy has been an
abject failure at achieving the goals the United States set out. On taking office, President Obama sought to roll-back some of the harsher
restrictions the previous administration placed on Cuba, including removing a ban on remittances from Cubans in the U.S. to their families back
home and reducing travel restrictions on Americans with immediate family in Cuba.¶ Every
step towards reforming Cuba
policy, however, has been met with kicking and screaming, mostly from the GOP with some
Democrats joining in. While the human rights violations the Cuban regime continues to perpetrate are most certainly a concern,
campaign funding may play a strong role in the perpetuation of U.S. policies. A 2009 report from Public Campaign highlighted the nearly $11
million the U.S.-Cuba Democracy Political Action Committee, along with a “network of hard-line Cuban American donors,” spent on political
campaigns since 2004. In the report, those candidates who received funding displayed a shift in voting patterns on Cuba policy in the aftermath
of the gift.¶
2NC – Turns Case -- Cuba Lobby
Bureaucratic fear of the Cuba Lobby prevents any policies regarding Cuba from being
carried out and turns the case
Leogrande 13 [The Cuba Lobby The most powerful lobby in Washington isn't the NRA. It's the Castro-hating right wing that has
Obama's bureaucrats terrified and inert. BY WILLIAM M. LEOGRANDE | APRIL 11, 2013
www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/04/11/the_cuba_lobby_jay_z?page=0,2]
The Cuba Lobby's power to derail diplomatic careers is common knowledge among foreign-policy professionals.
Throughout Obama's first term, midlevel State Department officials cooperated more closely and deferred more slavishly
to congressional opponents of Obama's Cuba policy than to supporters like John Kerry, the new secretary of state
who served at the time as Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman. When Senator Kerry tried to get the State Department and
USAID to reform the Bush administration's democracy-promotion programs in 2010, he ran into more opposition from
the bureaucracy than from Republicans. If Obama intends to finally keep the 2008 campaign promise to take a new direction in
relations with Cuba, the job can't be left to foreign-policy bureaucrats, who are so terrified of the Cuba
Lobby that they continue to believe, or pretend to believe, absurdities -- that Cubans are watching TV Martí, for instance, or
that Cuba is a state sponsor of terrorism. Only a determined president and a tough secretary of state can drive a new policy through a
bureaucratic wasteland so paralyzed by fear and inertia. The irrationality of U.S. policy does not stem just from concerns about electoral politics
in Florida. The Cuban-American community has evolved to the point that a majority now favors engagement with Cuba, as both opinion polls
and Obama's electoral success in 2008 and 2012 demonstrate. Today, the larger problem is the climate of fear in the government bureaucracy,
where even honest reporting about Cuba -- let alone advocating a more sensible policy -- can endanger one's career. Democratic presidents,
who ought to know better, have tolerated this distortion of the policy process and at times have reinforced it by allowing the Cuba lobby to
extort concessions from them. But the cost is high -- the gradual and insidious erosion of the government's ability to make sound policy based
on fact rather than fantasy.
2NC – Plan Unpopular – Cuba Lobby
Cuba Lobby ensures there is political backlash and makes popularity with the public
irrelevant
Guillen 12 [Ozzie Guillen: How The Cuba Lobby Paralyzes U.S. Policy Ozzie Guillen POSTED AT 11:52 AM April 12, 2012 BY ZAID JILANI
www.republicreport.org/2012/ozzie-guillen-cuba-lobby-paralyzes-us-policy/]
This morning it was abruptly announced that Ozzie Guillen, the first-year manager of the Miami Marlins, would be suspended for five games
following comments he made where he offered some mild praise for former Cuban leader Fidel Castro.¶ Guillen was forced to take the unpaid
suspension after he came under intense verbal attack from area interest groups. The barrage that the Miami Marlins manager is an example of
a powerful interest group that has virtually paralyzed US-Cuba relations in the nation’s capital.¶ Informally referred to by leading writers as the
“Cuba Lobby,” this tight-knit group of Political Action Committees (PACs), social organizations, and the lawmakers allied to them have
successfully maintained a failed diplomatic freeze, travel ban, and embargo between the United States and Cuba for
decades.¶ By exerting its influence, this lobby forces Washington politicians to ignore American public
opinion at large . A 2009 Gallup Poll found that 60 percent of Americans favor restoring full diplomatic relations with Cuba, and a
majority of Americans wanted to see an end to the embargo as well. Figures and political groups with as varying politics as the U.S. Chamber of
Commerce, the Pope, and former president Jimmy Carter have all called for ending the unilateral sanctions.¶ The
powerful Cuba
lobby, based in the crucial political swing state of Florida, exerts its influence largely through being a powerful
political spender. The U.S.-Cuba Democracy PAC, for example PAC spent a million dollars in 2008, and has already spent a quarter of a
million dollars during this election cycle. In 2008 and 2010, the majority of the PAC’s funds went to Democrats, but during the 2012 cycle the
organization is spending more heavily in favor of Republicans. It’s treasurer is Gus Machado, a Floridan wealthy auto dealer who regularly raises
millions of dollars for charities in the area.¶ At a fancy gala in 2010, the organization brought together leading congressional Democrats and
Republicans to support the US-Cuba embargo. “When
it comes to the topic of Cuba, first comes Cuba and then comes
the party,” said Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), a leading embargo proponent, at the event. The PAC is the largest foreign
policy-related PAC spender
according to the Center for Responsive Politics.¶ Although it is frequently referred to as the “Cuba
Lobby,” there is little evidence that the policies that the U.S.-Cuba Democracy PAC and related organizations and individuals help the Cuban
people or advance U.S. interests in Cuba. Their hard line has not ended the Castro regime and its abuses, or helped advance the welfare of
Cubans. Instead, through campaign donations and campaigns of intimidation, this lobby has effectively paralyzed U.S. policy.
2NC Link Wall – Republicans
Republicans won’t support the plan – hurts standing among Cuban-Americans
Fox News 12 http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2012/09/20/cuban-american-voters-leantoward-right-other-latinos-to-left-poll-says/ September 20, 2012 “Cuban Americans Lean Republican,
Other Latinos to the Left, Poll Shows”
The majority of Latinos favor President Barack Obama over GOP contender Mitt Romney, according to an exclusive Fox News Latino. There is,
however, one glaring exception: Cuban Americans.¶ While 64 percent of Mexican Americans and 67 percent of Puerto Ricans said they would
vote for the Obama/Biden ticket come November, only
39 percent of the Cuban Americans polled said they would
vote for the Democratic side.¶ “The Cuban-American vote is highly important,” said Pedro Roig, a senior
research associate at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami. “Florida is one of the battleground states.
Florida, for the Republicans, is a must win.”¶ South Florida has the largest population of Cubans outside of the island –with smaller pockets of
Cuban communities across the country– and hold considerable political clout in the region.¶ Unlike the majority of Latinos, who tend to lean
liberal and vote Democratic, Cuban Americans seem to move in the opposite direction politically.¶ With their political power in south Florida,
the Cuban-American voting demographic will be play a key role in November as President Barack Obama and GOP contender Mitt Romney
square off.¶ Overall, 55 percent of the likely Latino voters polled said they consider themselves Democrats, while only 29 percent identified as
Republicans. Only 30 percent of the Cuban Americans polled said they were Democrats.¶ Cuban-American
conservatism is
strongly rooted in the anti-Castro sentiments stemming from the 1959 revolution, the botched Bay of Pigs invasion during the
Kennedy administration and Republican support for the U.S. embargo against trade with Cuba. The sentiments only strengthened as Fidel
Castro kept power for decades and an influential group of Cuban-American politicians –particularly in Miami– became entrenched in the
Republican Party.¶ In 2000, when then Attorney General Janet Reno decided to forcibly remove Elian Gonzalez from his family’s Miami home, it
only exacerbated Cubans’ distrust of the Democratic Party. Cubans were largely against returning Elian, who was found clinging to an inner tube
along the shores of Miami, to his father in Communist Cuba.
Republicans oppose funding for hurricane relief
RAYMOND HERNANDEZ, December 19, 2012,(editor for the new york times) Senate
Republicans Plan Smaller Storm-Aid Bill, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/20/nyregion/senaterepublicans-plan-smaller-storm-aid-bill.html?_r=0
WASHINGTON — Republicans in the Senate, seeking to substantially trim a Hurricane Sandy aid
package being sought by Democrats, are planning to unveil a $23.8 billion emergency spending plan to
finance the recovery efforts of states devastated by the storm.¶ Related¶ The move by Republicans
comes as the Senate has opened debate on a $60.4 billion aid bill brought by Democratic leaders.
Democrats largely based their proposal on one that President Obama sent to Congress nearly two
weeks ago.¶ The alternative aid package is being introduced by SenatorDan Coats, Republican of
Indiana. Democrats say it is a token proposal intended to give cover to Republicans who will not vote
for the larger bill.¶ Democrats in Congress and leaders from the storm-battered region say that states
are counting on Congress to provide a large and quick infusion of money, both to continue cleaning up
damage and to begin longer-term projects to help them prepare for future storms.¶ “This proposal is
not even within the ballpark of what New York and New Jersey need,” said Senator Charles E. Schumer,
Democrat of New York. “To provide just a quarter of what the states’ governors requested is nowhere
near good enough, and will leave business owners, homeowners and municipalities that were
devastated without the resources they need.¶ “We welcome a vote, but it has no chance of passing the
Senate. We will keep fighting until New York gets its fair share.Ӧ But some Republicans are
concerned that the emergency spending bill was cobbled together too quickly without the benefit of
extended review, and that it consists of a few projects they say may not be needed.¶ In addition,
Republicans contended that federal aid should be distributed in installments, and not in one large
appropriation, since there is only so much money that states can spend at one time.¶ Democrats and
some Republicans from the New York region have been pushing for Congress to approve as much
federal aid as possible before it adjourns for the year, partly because they fear there will be less
urgency to act as the months go by.¶
Republicans repeatedly push for cuts in disaster preparedness
Aviva Shen, Oct 29, 2012,(Editor for thinkprogress.org) How House Republicans Would Make It
Harder To Provide Hurricane Relief, http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2012/10/29/1103971/howhouse-republicans-would-make-it-harder-to-provide-hurricane-relief-efforts/
¶ The East Coast is bracing for the ever-strengthening Hurricane Sandy, which will affect 50 million
people when it makes landfall on Monday evening. President Obama has declared a state of emergency
in 7 states and DC, allowing them to receive federal funds for emergency disaster assistance.¶ Depending
on the outcome of next week’s election, future victims of natural disasters may not be able to receive
the same kind of assistance. Mitt Romney has suggested shutting down FEMA and turning disaster relief
over to private companies. Meanwhile, House Republicans have repeatedly attempted to slash funds
for disaster preparedness and response in 2011:¶ According to the House Appropriation Committee’s
summary of the bill, the [GOP's 2011 continuing resolution] funds Operations, Research and Facilities
for the National Oceanic Atmospheric Association with $454.3 million less than it got in FY2010; this
represents a $450.3 million cut from what the president’s never-passed FY2011 budget was
requesting. The National Weather Service, of course, is part of NOAA — its funding drops by $126
million. The CR also reduces funding for FEMA management by $24.3 million off of the FY2010 budget,
and reduces that appropriation by $783.3 million for FEMA state and local programs.¶ With each major
natural disaster in 2011, House Republicans dug in their heels over providing disaster relief. They
repeatedly demanded the funds be offset by other spending cuts in the budget — even as a deadly
tornado tore through Missouri, an earthquake shook Virginia, and when Hurricane Irene struck the
east coast last year.¶ The politicization of disaster relief is likely to continue; the House Republican
budget ignored a bipartisan agreement to make it easier to fund disaster relief, instead insisting again
that spending cuts offset the emergency aid.
Republicans block funding for weather monitoring programs
Ben Geman, 02/16/11, (editor for The Hill, he Hill has been the newspaper for and about Congress,
breaking stories from Capitol Hill, K Street and the White House. The Hill stands alone in delivering solid,
nonpartisan reporting on the inner workings of Congress and the nexus of politics and business.)House
science chairman seeks to block funding for new ‘Climate Service’, http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2wire/144397-house-science-chairman-seeks-to-block-new-climate-service
Rep. Ralph Hall (R-Texas), the chairman of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, is
seeking to block funding for the overhaul of major federal climate change research and monitoring
programs. Hall – who questions climate science – wants to amend House spending legislation to prevent
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) from proceeding with creation of a new
“Climate Service.”¶ Hall’s plan would amend the continuing resolution that’s on the House floor this
week – it’s the bill to fund the federal government through the end of fiscal year 2011. His
amendment would prevent any of the money from being used to “implement, establish, or create”
the Climate Service. NOAA is seeking to better integrate its various climate-related functions.¶ “The proposed Climate Service will bring
together NOAA’s existing climate research, observations, monitoring, modeling, information product development and delivery, and decision
support functions from NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, the National Weather Service, and the National Environmental
Satellite, Data, and Information Service, which will be renamed the National Environmental Satellite Service,” according to NOAA’s proposal.¶
Hall’s amendment is among several House GOP efforts
to block the Obama administration’s climate change efforts. The underlying spending bill would prohibit funding for
NOAA first announced plans for the Climate Service a year ago.
EPA’s climate regulations, while several proposed amendments also address global warming. For instance, Rep. Steve Pearce (R-N.M.) has
floated an amendment that would prohibit any federal funding for the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which
studies climate science but has come under attack from skeptics.
Republicans wont allocate funds for natural disasters
Pat Garofalo Oct 29, 2012 (Economic Policy Editor),ThinkProgress, House GOP Voted To Cut Disaster
Relief In Order To Preserve Military Spending,
http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2012/10/29/1105201/disaster-relief-program-cut/
Republicans have also continued to starve the Federal Emergency Management Agency of the money
it needs to respond to natural disasters. It held FEMA hostage to the same budget battles last
summer, withholding money until cuts were made elsewhere. This brought the agency literally to the
brink of bankruptcy, and it was even forced to temporarily suspend relief efforts in Missouri and
elsewhere last summer as the dispute raged on in Congress.¶ Federal agencies that monitor storms have
also been targeted. The funding resolution passed by Republicans in early 2011 specifically cut funding
for the National Oceanic Atmospheric Association by $454 million from the president’s request. The
National Weather Service, part of NOAA, saw a $126 million reduction.¶ Even at the state level, the
party hasn’t been kind to funding victims of natural disasters. Under Republican Governor Rick Scott’s
most recent budget, “Florida may not have enough money to pay off hurricane insurance claims if a big
storm hits this year.Ӧ The Progresssive Change Campaign Committee is running a web advertising
campaign today in Florida, asking people to hold the GOP accountable for playing politics with disaster
relief. Congregants to the convention will surely decry the nasty federal government countless times this
week—but would they really rather there be a feeble National Weather Service to monitor storms, or
an underfunded an agency like FEMA to help respond? Because that’s what many of the people up on
stage are fighting for.
Republicans barely passes funding for disaster relief – proves unpopularity
Rick Jervis and Gregory Korte, 9/26/2011,(national news paper),USA TODAY, Congressional
stalemate puts federal disaster funds at risk, http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/nation/story/201109-25/FEMA-disaster-relief-Congress-stalemate/50549750/1
A congressional stalemate that could shut down the government this week threatens federal disaster
relief for states already struggling to recover from one of Mother Nature's most calamitous years.¶
President Obama has declared a record 84 major disasters this year, with a new one Friday for summerflooding in Kansas. Ten have been
billion-dollar disasters, the National Climatic Data Center says.¶ Responding to floods, drought, wildfires and Hurricane Irene has depleted the
budget for the Federal
Emergency Management Agency, which could run out of money Tuesday.¶ Yet
Congress is deadlocked over how to pay for $3.7 billion in emergencydisaster aid added to a shortterm spending bill to keep the government operating through Nov. 18.¶ By a 219-203 vote Friday, the
Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed a plan to pay for the spending in part through
$1. in cuts. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said it was "not an honest effort at
compromise," and the Democratic-controlled Senate rejected the legislation.¶ Even before this year's disasters,
states saw 17% less federal money for preparedness than last year, says Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster
Preparedness at Columbia University in New York.¶ "There
have been extraordinarily deep and dangerous cuts to the
agencies that have principal responsibility for disaster readiness and disaster response," he says. "It
really undermines the nation's capacity to be ready for the inevitable disaster." In normal times, states might
withstand a short-term lapse in federal funding. The combination of large-scale disasters and previous budget cuts has state disaster budgets
running on empty, state and local disaster officials say. For example:¶ •Already battling racing wildfires and the worst drought in state history,
Texas firefighters got more bad news this month: State lawmakers cut nearly one-third of the budget of the agency responsible for fighting
wildfires, from $117 to $83 million.¶ "You have underfunded and ill-equipped firefighters, historic drought conditions, fires moving faster and
behaving worse than we've ever seen. And now budget cuts," saysChris Barron, the Manchaca fire chief near Austin and head of the State
Firemen's and Fire Marshals' Association of Texas. "It's not a good situation to be in."¶ He says some firefighters are buying safety equipment
out of their own pockets.¶ •Iowa's annual operating budget dropped from a high of $34 in 2004 to $9 million in 2011, even as ice storms and
floods devastated parts of the state this year. The state relies on federal funds for 90% of its emergency management budget.¶ "We're going to
be impacted in the future, there's no doubt about that," says Derek Hill, head of the Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency Management
Division.¶
Republicans look to cut Hurricane forecasting see funding as unnecessary
ThinkProgress 2011-2-18,(¶ named best blog of 2008 by The Sidney Hillman Foundation, receiving anaward for journalism
excellence. In 2009, ThinkProgress was named a “Gold Award Winner” by the International Academy of Visual Arts.), The GOP decides accurate
weather forecasting and hurricane tracking are luxuries America can’t afford, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/02/18/207538/gop-cutsnoaa-satellite-weather-forecasting-and-hurricane-tracking/More often than not you’ll need an umbrella if your local television channel or
website of choice tells you to take one when you leave the house.
But we could take a huge step back to the days when your dartboard had a reasonable chance of
outpredicting Al Roker if House Republicans have their way with the 2011 federal budget.¶ The House
of Representatives is debating the Full Year Continuing Resolution Act (H.R. 1) to fund the federal
government for the remainder of fiscal year 2011. The Republican leadership has proposed sweeping
cuts to key programs across the climate change, clean energy, and environmental spectrum. They
have also decided that accurate weather forecasting and hurricane tracking are luxuries America can
no longer afford.¶ The GOP’s bill would tear $1.2 billion (21 percent)out of the president’s proposed
budget for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA. On the surface, cutting
NOAA may seem like an obvious choice. TheFY 2011 request for the agency included a 16 percent boost
over 2010 levels that would have made this year’s funding level of $5.5 billion the largest in NOAA’s
history.¶ Even this total funding level, however, is woefully insufficient for an agency tasked with
managing such fundamental resources as the atmosphere that regulates our climate, the 4.3 million
square miles of our oceanic exclusive economic zone, the ecological health of coastal regions that are
home to more than 50 percent of all Americans, response to environmental catastrophes including the
Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and fisheries that employ thousands of Americans and annually contribute
tens of billions of dollars to the national economy.¶ More than $700 million of the president’s
proposed2011 increase in NOAA funding would be tagged for overhauling our nation’s
agingenvironmental satellite infrastructure. Satellites gather key data about our oceans and
atmosphere, including cloud cover and density, miniscule changes in ocean surface elevation and
temperatures, and wind and current trajectories. Such monitoring is integral to our weather and
climate forecasting and it plays a key role in projections of strength and tracking of major storms and
hurricanes””things most Americans feel are worth keeping an eye on.¶ In fact, NOAA has been
making great strides in hurricane tracking. The average margin of errorfor predicting landfall three days in advance was 125
miles in 2009″”half what it was 10 yearsprior. This data translates into a higher degree of confidence among the public in NOAA’s forecasts,
which means individuals will be more likely to obey an evacuation order. Further, since evacuating each mile of shoreline costs approximately
up to $1 million , greater forecasting accuracy translates to substantial savings.¶ The United States needs these satellites if we’re to continue
providing the best weather and climate forecasts in the world. The implications of the loss of these data far exceed the question of whether to
pack the kids into snowsuits for the trip to school. The concern here is ensuring ongoing operational efficiency and national security on a global
scale. In some cases it can literally become a question of life and death. Hurricane Irene is going to hit the United States’ east coast this
weekend, as you have likely heard. It looks to be a pretty nasty storm, capable of causing billions of dollars of damage. The National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration has been carefully tracking Irene, forecasting its path up the coast and its intensity.
Of course,
America’s Republican-demanded White House-encouraged austerity budget includes cuts to the
NOAA. Cuts that will delay — by years — the construction and launch of an extreme weather
forecasting satellite. So let’s hope there aren’t any serious hurricanes in 2016, I guess?¶ Think Progress links to
the words of NOAA administrator Dr. Jane Lubchenco:¶ Speaking at the Denver Museum of Nature and Science on a day when the weather
forecast warned of possible tornadoes and golf-ball-size hail east of the city, Dr. Lubchenco said there would be a gap of at least a year and a
half, and possibly much longer, during which NOAA has no operational satellite circling the planet on a north-south orbit.¶ The polar-orbiting
satellite enables scientists to predict severe storms five to 10 days before they hit.¶ “Whether the gap is longer than that depends on whether
we get the money”— $1 billion— “in the next budget,” warned Dr. Lubchenco, an environmental scientist. “I would argue that these satellites
Before or after a natural
disaster, you can usually find a Republican who wanted to cut funding for departments and
organizations that predicted and protected people from said disaster.
are critically important to saving lives and property and to enabling homeland security.Ӧ This is an old story: