The Cuban Missile Crisis
March 4, 2014
Overview
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Operation Nadir
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Why missiles in: four hypotheses
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Why American blockade
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Why withdrawal of Soviet missiles from Cuba
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Analytic epilogue: three conceptual
frameworks for analysing foreign policy
Operation Anadyr
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1959, first arms shipments from USSR to
Cuba. Further military assistance provided in
1962
By September 1962, Soviet arms in Cuba
included:
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Surface-to-air missiles
Coastal defence ‘Sopka’ cruise missiles
Patrol boats armed with anti-ship missiles
Over 5,000 Soviet technicians and military
personnel
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September 8, 1962 - Soviet nuclear
ballistic missiles (medium-range) arrive
in Cuba, followed by nuclear warheads
and nuclear bombs.
The shipping, unloading and delivery of
the missiles to the construction site in
Cuba not detected by US, until their
deployment in the field.
Missile range map
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October 14 1962- a U-2 plane flew over the
areas where missiles were deployed,
followed by further U-2 flights on October 15
and 17.
U.S. President Kennedy and his advisors
were informed of the build-up in Cuba.
Soviet air defences had observed the over
flights but had taken no action on 14 October.
They presumably observed flights on 15 and
17 October as well.
Why missiles in: four hypotheses
President Kennedy and his senior advisors
considered the following hypotheses for the
build-up in Cuba:
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Hypothesis 1: Cuban defence
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Hypothesis 2: Cold war politics
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Hypothesis 3: Missile power
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Hypothesis 4: Berlin - win, trade or trap
1) Cuban Defence

US has made it clear it wants Castro out
& previously supported military action
against Cuba
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Bay of Pigs Invasion (April, 1961)
However, missiles not the only way to
deter invasion

Risk increasing likelihood of invasion
2) Cold War Politics

Idea that USSR putting missiles that
close to US would show it’s dominance

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Make US allies in Americas lose
confidence
Problem: could have picked easier
method and in better location
3) Missile power

In 1962 US had fairly significant
advantage over USSR in size of long
range nuclear arsenal
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Moving missiles closer to US would help
Problem- not clear why problem was so
urgent at that point that USSR felt need
to take such a risky approach
4) Berlin- win, trade or trap
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Berlin as real motive of USSR
Move to place missiles in Cuba part of
larger effort to force US out of Berlin
Kennedy worried whatever US
response to Cuba, USSR would use on
Berlin
Why the American blockade?
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Avoid nuclear exchange with Soviet Union
and convey to the world that it is not
frightened to pursue its objectives.
October 22 1962, President Kennedy
declared a ‘strict quarantine on all offensive
military equipment under shipment to Cuba’.
The American blockade began on 24 October
1962.
Why the withdrawal of Soviet
missiles from Cuba?

Exchange of correspondence
 USSR- to remove missiles
 US- pledge not to invade Cuba

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Remove missiles from Turkey at later
date
October 28, Soviets announce
withdrawal the missiles from Cuba.
3 conceptual frameworks for
analyzing foreign policy
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Rational Actor model focuses on the goals
and objectives of the government.
Organizational Behaviour model focuses on
the existing organizations and their standard
operating procedures for (1) acquiring
information, (2) defining feasible options, and
(3) implementing programme.
Governmental Politics model focuses on the
politics inside a government.
Rational actor model
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See government as unitary actor
Seek to understand state’s goals &
objectives
Identify options for addressing problem
and costs & benefits of each
Use this analysis to identify best option
based on above info
Organizational behaviour model
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Seek to identify the organizations that make
up the government
Look at standard operating procedures
(SOPs) of these organizations
Examine constraints and capabilities these
SOPs put on ability to produce 1) information,
2) options and 3) implement choices
Identify the organizations with biggest state in
outcome chosen
Governmental politics model
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Government action as result of bargaining
between various players inside the
government
Seek to identify the various players, the
factors that shape their perceptions &
preferences and their impact on the choice
Identify the ‘action channel’
Identify players with greatest stake in
outcome
Conclusions
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Three models together provide insight
into various aspects of the crisis and
offer more complete explanation
Taken together, demonstrate how easily
the crisis could have turned out
differently