Arizona Rural Transit Needs Study
Arizona Department of Transportation
Public Transportation Division
November 2007
Study Purpose
Develop regionally based needs and solutions
for rural transit service in Arizona:
• Collect and analyze relevant data
• Identify national trends
• Obtain general public, Tribal and key stakeholder input
• Develop projections for future transit demand
• Identify and quantify potential solutions
• Develop final report identifying statewide rural transit needs
Intended to provide an objective, analytical basis for
establishing Arizona’s long-term direction of rural transit
service provision
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Key Questions
Key study questions:
• Geographic Diversity: What is rural Arizona, what are its
characteristics, and how will it evolve in the near future?
• Elderly and Persons with Disabilities: How will the
population of elderly and persons with disabilities change?
• Title VI Requirements: Where are low-income populations
located?
• Transit Needs and Gaps: How much rural transit demand is
currently being met? Where are the unmet needs?
• Roles and Responsibilities: Which agencies will be
responsible for carrying out this plan?
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Methodology
Rural Arizona
excludes five
shaded
urbanized
areas:
• Phoenix
• Tucson
• Flagstaff
• Prescott
• Yuma
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Source: ADOT and Cambridge Systematics.
Methodology
Transit Demand Analysis: Five analytical methods for
determining rural transit needs and gaps for the state were
considered.
Most appropriate methodology for Arizona was the Arkansas
Public Transportation Needs Assessment (APTNA)
method to define transit service needs for each system
and for future systems.
Utilized several data sets to produce future demographic
trends. Demographics included elderly population (over
60 years of age), low income population, and employment.
Demographic data used in report is based on a 2005-2015
horizon. The APTNA analysis used a 2007-2016 horizon.
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Geographic Diversity
Summary
Population of Rural Arizona, 2005-2015 (total growth from 1.5 to 1.9 million)
2,000,000
23.2% of rural
Arizona residents
are elderly; 9.7%
are persons with
disabilities; 14.9%
are of low-income
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
Persons
with Disabilities
(not in poverty,
under age 60)
1,200,000
Persons in Poverty
(under age 60)
1,000,000
The elderly
population will
grow the most
rapidly over time
Elderly
(ages 60 & over)
800,000
Other
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
2005
5
2010
2015
Elderly and Persons with Disabilities
Summary
100,000
80,000
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2005
2015
60,000
40,000
20,000
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By 2015, 27.7% of
rural Arizona
residents will be
elderly (up from
23.2% in 2005)
120,000
G
Growth will be
highest in Pinal
County (+152.9%)
Elderly Rural Population, 2005-2015 (total growth from 349,000 to 527,000)
140,000
G
Elderly population
in rural Arizona will
grow by 51.3% from
349,000 in 2005 to
527,000 in 2015
Title VI Requirements
Summary
Low Income Rural Population, 2005-2015 (total growth from 223,000 to 285,000)
70,000
Low income
population in rural
Arizona will grow
by 27.4% from
223,000 in 2005 to
285,000 in 2015
Growth will be
highest in Pinal
County (+112.3%)
60,000
50,000
40,000
2005
2015
30,000
20,000
10,000
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Key Findings
Transit Demand: Transit demand in rural Arizona is
projected to grow from 7.8 million passenger trips in
2007 to 10.5 million in 2016, an increase of 34%
Unmet Need:
• Estimated year 2007 rural transit ridership: 1.4 million
• Only 18 percent of estimated demand is currently being met
• Only 13 percent of demand will be met in 2016 if no additional
services are introduced
Counties with Most Demand (year 2016): Pinal (2.5 million trips),
Mohave (1.3 million), Navajo (1.0 million), Cochise (0.9 million)
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Transit Needs and Gaps
Summary
Annual Ridership (in Millions)
12
10.5 mil
Ridership Demand
10
7.8 mil
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Strategy to Meet Need
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4
1.4 mil
2
Ridership Without Additional Service
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Ridership demand in rural Arizona will grow from 7.8 million in 2007 to
10.5 million in 2016. Existing services only meet 18% of current need
(will decline to 13% in 2016 if no changes are made)
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Strategy to meet need: ramp up service provision over time to fully meet
need in 2016 (ridership from 1.4 mil in 2007 to 10.5 mil in 2016)
Strategy to Meet Need
Comparison of no-build and build-out scenarios:
No Changes to
Existing Service
(No-Build
Scenario)
Strategy to
Fully Meet Need
in 2016 (BuildOut Scenario)
Average Annual Capital Cost,
2007-2016
$4,960,000
$28,580,000
Average Annual Net Operating Cost,
2007-2016
$12,100,000
$54,710,000
Average Annual Total Cost,
2007-2016
$17,060,000
$83,290,000
Source: ADOT, CS, and TranSystems. Costs are given in year 2007 dollars.
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Moving Forward
The following vision and goals were established
on the basis of data analysis results and stakeholder input:
• Vision: Rural transit service provision should be expanded
significantly through the year 2016 to address the rapidly
growing transportation demands and needs of rural residents
statewide
• Goals: #1: Provide services in multiple geographic areas; #2:
Address needs of particular market segments; #3: Serve a
variety of trip purposes
• Customers: Key customers for new and expanded services
should be elderly persons, persons with disabilities, and
persons of low income. There are also substantial unmet needs
for general public service
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Specified agencies should carry out defined roles and
responsibilities to ensure further development and
improvement of service
Roles & Responsibilities
Summary
Agency
Roles and Responsibilities
- Claim and obligate Federal funds
State
- Develop statewide rural transit capital program
- Consider performance-based funding criteria
- Oversee detailed service planning and cost estimation
Councils of
Government
- Provide regional funding support
- Collect data and coordinate services within region
- Generate support at local level
Local and Tribal
Governments
- Actively monitor and plan for demographic changes
- Streamline and coordinate service provision
Transit Operators
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- Operate high quality service tailored to rider needs
- Monitor service performance on an ongoing basis
Summary
Conclusions
Rural transit plays an important role in Arizona’s
transportation system. Further development and
improvement of rural transit services is critical to
address needs stemming from rapid population growth
Given only 18% of rural Arizona’s public transportation
needs are being met today, it is clear that significant
improvement is necessary:
• Future Need: Only 13% of transit service need will be met in
2016 if no service changes are mad
• Strategy to Meet Need: Increase ridership from 1.4 million
in 2007 to 10.5 million in 2016
• Proposed Build-Out Cost: Average of $83.3 million annually
from 2007 to 2016
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Summary
Next Steps
Next steps to ensure further development and
improvement of service:
• Add rural public transit service within cities, towns, and
Tribal Reservations to assure service needs of the elderly,
persons with disabilities, and general public are met
• Connect rural and urban communities, which represents a
growing Arizona need
• Increase funding at all levels of government to support these
services, with cooperation from private & non-profit sectors
• Establish clearly defined roles and responsibilities between
the State, councils of governments, local governments, Tribal
Governments, and transit operators
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Thank you!
http://www.azdot.gov/PTD
Matt Carpenter
Arizona Department of Transportation
(602) 712-6790
mcarpenter@azdot.gov
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