Campaigns and Elections
Rules of the Game
Elections: The Rules of the Game
Constitution sets conditions/requirements but states
determines most electoral rules.
Regularly Scheduled Elections
Occur on the 1st Tuesday after the first Monday in November of
even-numbered years
Elections occur regardless of war or crisis
There are exceptions for special elections/state provisions
Elections: The Rules of the Game
Fixed, staggered, and Sometimes Limited Terms
Electoral terms are fixed terms (length is specified not indefinite)
House: 2 Years
Senate: 6 Years
President: 4 Years
Staggered Terms: Not all offices are up for election at the same time
Election Cycle: All House are running where only 1/3 of Senate are.
Senators can run for Presidency while still holding their seat (Obama
'08, McCain '08, Kerry '04)
Most states prohibit running for two offices (Senate & President) in the same election
but some states allow it (Connecticut)
Elections: The Rules of the Game
Term Limits
22nd Amendment (1951):
Limits presidents to two terms
Lame Duck: Official who cannot or will not run again, less influential
1990s brought change towards term limits
15 states have limits on their legislatures
Congress refuses to propose a constitutional amendment to
place limits on their own terms.
Should Virginia have term limits on state legislatures?
Should there be limits on U.S. Congressional seats?
Elections: The Rules of the Game
Winner-take-all System
Candidate only needs the most votes; not the majority
Centrist candidates tend to win more elections in this
system. Why?
Single-member districts choose only one official so
combining that with a winner-take-all system really hard
for 3rd Parties to win
Proportional representation most accurately reveals
how voters truly feel and gives voters who did not win
the plurality some form of influence
Primaries and Caucuses
Primaries
Caucuses
Most decisive way to nominate presidential
Were used before primaries to nominate
candidates
Caucuses are closed meetings where party
30 states have primaries
members meet the candidates, ask questions, Uses of Primaries
discuss qualifications, and vote on to endorse ·Proportional representation (Dems)
or not
·Winner take all (Only Reps)
·Non-preferential primary
Most direct form of democracy
·Open Primaries
Iowa still uses a caucus and 1st official
·Dual Primary: Pres. candidate and delegates are
indication of viability
voted on (New Hampshire)
Only three Presidents since 1952 have lost the New Hampshire primary but went on
to win the Presidency (Clinton, Bush Jr, and Obama)
Democrats and the Superdelegates
A super-delegate is a leader in the National Democratic Party who has a
vote at the national convention; they are not selected by state party
members.
How do superdelegates influence the power of party leaders?
• Party leaders are now assured a role in the nomination process, regardless of
which candidate they support.
• Party leaders can cast the deciding vote in close nomination contests.
• Superdelegates are unpledged and therefore can change their minds on
candidates as the process unfolds.
Elections: The Rules of the Game
Election Process Phase 1
Invisible Primary: period between a candidate's announcement
he/she is running
Begin to actively raise money (Start up cost: 100 Mil)
*Much of a politicians time is spent fundraising
Searches for major donors/obtain "front-runner" status
Design a strategic campaign plan
Elections: The Rules of the Game
Election Process Phase 2
Primary Season (10 Months before Election Day)
Iowa Caucus/New Hampshire Primaries among the earliest (held in January)
Many candidates would have dropped by this point leaving the most well known to
compete in the 3rd phase
Elections: The Rules of the Game
Election Process
3rd Phase
Super Tuesday: Important regional primaries in February and March
After Super Tuesday one candidate usually has the necessary delegates needed for
the nomination
*Except 2008
Period between the informal nomination and the National Convention
Gives candidates time to unify their parties and continue to raise funds for the
general election
Elections: The Rules of the Game
Election Process
Nominating Convention (4th Phase)
Party out of power holds convention first
Win support of the majority of delegates here and you win the nomination
Functions of Convention
Adopt party platform
Keynote Speech
Nominating speeches
Acceptance of VP and Presidential nominations
Leads to a temporary increase in positive ratings (Convention Bounce)
Elections: The Rules of the Game
Election Process
What to do in the General Campaign
Maintain the Convention Bounce
Continue to raise funds
Visit key swing states
Unify the electorate
Win over undecided voters
Presidential Musts to Win
Target the campaign: Decide what states to target, battleground states, must win,
etc.
Take advantage of political assets: If you're the incumbent president, use this to your
advantage. Sometimes being an incumbent can hurt (Carter Iran Hostage, Obama
Benghazi)
Develop an image the voter responds to: Public responds to personality; Clinton
portrayed himself as fighter against extremists; Obama appearing on many shows
viewed by youth, women, and minorities; Put political spins on issues that may hurt
you
Presidential Musts to Win
Attract the support of diverse groups: Democrats tend to paint the Republicans as a party of rich and
big business groups
Use issues and events for their own advantage: Romney attacked Obama on the economy and
foreign policy while Obama attacked Romney on his economic plan and business record
Take advantage of the media: TV ads, political debates, 527 Independent Groups (exempt from the
law as IRS 527 Regulations)
*What grabs the attention of the news for candidates?
Use the campaign organization/workers to get the vote out: Local level party members are
responsible for this step; phone calls, door to door, posters, etc
How many people, where it's at, sound bites, photo ops
Elections: The Rules of the Game
Electoral College
Indirect device used to elect the U.S. President and VP
Framers did not trust the choice of POTUS to go to a direct vote
Number of Electors is number of senators and representatives added up:
Ex) Virginia: 2 Senators + 11 Representatives = 13 Electoral Votes
Each state legislature determines who will be designated to be an elector
Usually loyal party workers
Supposed to cast their vote along with the state's popular vote
"Faithless Elector" Elector who doesn't vote based with popularity of state but
has never determined the outcome of an election
Elections: The Rules of the Game
Electoral College
Electors ballots sent to Congress where they meet in January to "formally" count
the votes and determine a winner
Majority of electoral votes to win (270)
Candidates can win popular vote (2000) but not the electoral vote
If no one reaches 270 then the newly elected Congress votes the 1st week of
January (Jan. 3rd)
Elections: The Rules of the Game
Electoral College
House gets one vote for the top three presidential candidates (Winner needs 26 votes)
States in the House get only one vote each so Congressmen have to agree.
Senate votes for the top two vice presidential candidates
(Winner needs 51/100 senate votes)
Is possible to have a President from one party and VP from the other.
Breaking News: Election 2012 Results in Tie
(Republican)
House Votes
(Democratic)
Senate Votes
Daniel Inouye
Pro Tempore
Boehner: Speaker
How the Electoral College Defines Campaigns
·Resource allocation or focus on competitive states, swing states, and large states where
candidates spend their time or money or buy media.
·Issues (an issue may swing a bloc of voters in a state).
·Choice of Vice-President (regional balance).
Third Parties and the Electoral College
Electoral College can hinder success of minor parties
·3rd parties may carry a lot of the popular vote but if they do not win
the state they receive zero electoral votes
·Fundraising becomes an issue due to the electoral vote causing
difficulty to raise funds and other campaign resources
Why has it not been changed?
·Helps to ensure that a majority of electoral votes are earned by one
candidate.
·History/tradition.
·Would require constitutional amendment.
·No clear consensus on an alternative
·Collectively benefits small states
·Racial minorities (and interest group) in some states like the Electoral
College because it protects their votes.
·Collectively benefits large states.
·Competitive states like it.
·Favors two-party system.
Elections: The Rules of the Game
Federal Election Campaign Act
Sets up restrictions on
·the amount of advertising
·created disclosure of contributions over $100
·limited the amount of personal contributions of
candidates and relatives
·Establish campaign equality
·Established the FEC (1974)
Response to the
Watergate Scandal
FEC enforce federal law and is to match funds with presidential candidates in primaries and
the general election (Candidate has to raise $5000 in 20 states to receive public funding,
disclose donor information and limit campaign expenditures)
Elections: Regulations
McGovern-Fraser Commission
Commission formed at the 1968 Democratic convention
in response to demands for reform by minority groups
and others who sought better representation.
Goal of Commission: Make the party more democratic
Established new rules for the nominee/delegate process
·Incorporate more women and minorities as delegates
·Proportional representation
·Introduced superdelegates that could vote as they
pleased at the convention
The McCain-Feingold Act (2002) is the US
federal law that regulates the financing of
political campaigns also known as the BCRA
Focused on:
Soft money in campaign financing
Issue ads
Controversial campaign practices during the
1996 federal elections
Increasing political contribution limits for
private individuals
What is the loophole we've discussed with this?
527 Organizations
Obstacles in Campaign Reform
Buckley v. Valeo (1976)
Supreme Court struck down certain campaign donation limits and spending limits as
violation of free expression provisions of 1st Amendment
How it's an obstacle
·Contributing to one’s own campaign, contributing to parties for party building, and spending
money independently of a campaign are forms of protected free expression.
·A constitutional amendment is required to limit free expression, not a more easily enacted
statute.
Obstacles in Campaign Reform
Soft Money
Unregulated donations to political parties for party activities/party building
Usually spent in the states to aid candidates indirectly in various ways
How it's an obstacle
·Both parties benefit from soft money, so partisan members of Congress and presidents have little
incentive to regulate this resource; there is no critical policy-making mass for reform
·Interest groups are often the contributors of these funds, perceive benefits from their use, and have no
incentive to urge office seekers or incumbents with whom they have a relationship to regulate these
monies.
Obstacles in Campaign Reform
Incumbency
An office holder who is pursuing reelection
How it's an obstacle
·Incumbents benefit most from existing campaign finance laws
·Incumbents have a high probability of re-election and thus attract more donations than challengers, which gives them a
desirable advantage in re-election contests.
·Incumbents know the consequences of current policy, find them favorable, and realize that changes may create
unanticipated negative consequences for themselves.
Are we more democratic today?
·States hold primaries for average voters
·Primaries give those voters some say in the nomination process
·Prior to the changes of the McGovern-Fraser Commission presidential
candidates were nominated without approval of the electorate