The 21st Century Internet
Invited Talk in the
Samuel D. Conte Distinguished Lecture Series
Purdue University
West Lafayette, IN
January 28, 2002
Larry Smarr
Department of Computer Science and Engineering
Jacobs School of Engineering, UCSD
Director, California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology
The 21st Century Internet
After twenty years, the "S-curve" of building out the wired internet with hundreds of
millions of PCs as its end points is flattening out, with corresponding lowering of the
growth rates of the major suppliers of that global infrastructure. At the same time,
several new "S-curves" are reaching their steep slope as ubiquitous computing
begins to sweep the planet. Leading this will be a vast expansion in heterogeneous
end-points to a new wireless internet, moving IP throughout the physical world.
Billions of internet connected cell phones, embedded processors, hand held
devices, sensors, and actuators will lead to radical new applications. The resulting
vast increase in data streams, augmented by the advent of mass market broadband
to homes and businesses, will drive the backbone of the internet to a pure optical
lambda-switched network of tremendous capacity. Finally, peer-to-peer computing
and storage will increasingly provide a vast untapped capability to power this
emergent planetary computer. I will describe how the newly formed Cal-(IT)2
Institute is organizing research in each of these areas. Large scale "Laboratories for
Living in the Future" are being designed, some of which provide opportunities for
collaboration with Purdue faculty.
The Co-Evolution of Infrastructures
•
Automobile / Highway Infrastructure
– Internal Combustion Engine  Personal Automobile
– “Two-Lane Standard Width” for Inter-Roading
– Co-Evolved Industries
–
–
–
–
•
Petroleum
Rubber
Steel
Concrete
PC / Wired Internet Infrastructure
– Microprocessor  Personal Computer
– “TCP/IP Standard” for Inter-Networking
– Co-Evolved Industries
–
–
–
–
–
Semiconductor Memory
Disk Drives
Operating Systems
Databases
Computer Graphics
Technologies Expand Into Society
Following an S-Curve
Automobile Adoption
Source: Harry Dent, The Great Boom Ahead
The Automobile Industry Grew Up Concurrently
The Inter-Highway System
Unpaved Roads
Two Lane Highways
Interstate Highway System
American Automobile Industry
Innovation Growth
Maturity
2002
Source: James M. Utterback, “Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation”
Slide from Forest Baskett, NEA
The PC Industry Grew Up
Concurrently with the Internet
ARPAnet
NSFnet
Source: DISK/TREND reports and Management Science
Slide from Forest Baskett, NEA
Commercial
Internet
Such Rapid Buildouts of Infrastructure
Often Lead to Speculative Stock Bubbles
Dow 10/28-10/33 vs NASDAQ
5000
Young Hot Companies
General Motors Dell
Westinghouse AOL
US Steel
Intel
RCA
Qualcomm
Sears
Amazon
4500
NASDAQ Close
4000
3500
3000
2500
Dow to Oct 1933
2000
1500
1000
NASDAQ to Dec 2001
500
0
0
200
400
600
Trading Days
800
1000
1200
The Next S-Curves of Internet Growth:
A Mobile Internet Powered by a Planetary Grid
• Wireless Access--Anywhere, Anytime
– Broadband Speeds
– “Always Best Connected”
• Billions of New Wireless Internet End Points
– Information Appliances
– Sensors and Actuators
– Embedded Processors
• Emergence of a Distributed Planetary Computer
– Parallel Lambda Optical Backbone
– Storage of Data Everywhere
– Scalable Distributed Computing Power
Cal-(IT)2 -- An Integrated Approach
to Research on the Future of the Internet
220 UCSD & UCI Faculty
Working in Multidisciplinary Teams
With Students, Industry, and the Community
www.calit2.net
We Are About to Transition
to a Mobile Internet
Third Generation Cellular Systems
Will Add Internet, QoS, and High Speeds
Subscribers (millions)
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
Mobile Internet
800
600
400
Fixed Internet
200
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: Ericsson
2004
2005
Wireless Technologies Are
a Strong Academic Research Discipline
Center for
Wireless Communications
Two Dozen ECE and CSE Faculty
LOW-POWERED
CIRCUITRY
RF
Mixed A/D
ASIC
Materials
ANTENNAS AND
PROPAGATION
COMMUNICATION
THEORY
COMMUNICATION
NETWORKS
MULTIMEDIA
APPLICATIONS
Architecture
Changing
Modulation
Media Access
Smart Antennas
Environment
Channel
Coding
Scheduling
Adaptive Arrays
Protocols
Multiple Access End-to-End QoS Multi-Resolution
Compression
Hand-Off
Source: UCSD CWC
Experimental Chip Design
with Industrial Partner Support
A Multiple
Crystal Interface
Phase Lock Loop
(PLL) for a
Bluetooth
Transceiver with
Voltage Control
Oscillator (VCO)
Realignment to
Reduce Noise
Source: Ian Galton, UCSD ECE, CWC
Cellular Internet is Already Here
At Experimental Sites
• UCSD Has Been First Beta Test Site
– Qualcomm’s 1xEV Cellular Internet
• Optimized for Packet Data Services
– Uses a 1.25 MHz channel
– 2.4 Mbps Peak Forward Rate
– Part of the CDMA2000 Tech Family
– Can Be Used as Stand-Alone
• Chipsets in Development Support
–
–
–
–
–
–
PacketVideo’s PVPlayer™ MPEG-4
gpsOne™ Global Positioning System
Bluetooth
MP3
MIDI
BREW
Rooftop HDR
Access Point
Goal: Smooth Handoff by Mobile Device
Faced With Heterogeneous Access Network
Identify Issues Related to Handoff
Between WLAN and WWAN Networks
and Implement a Test-bed
(802.11b,a)
WLAN
GPRS
Internet
(CDMA20001xEV)
CDMA
CDPD
Ramesh Rao, Kameshwari Chebrolou
UCSD-CWC, Cal-(IT)2
The Cal-(IT)2 Grid Model for
Wireless Services Middleware
Applications
Wireless Services Interface
Data
Real-Time Power Location Mobile Security
Management
Services Control Awareness Code
UCI Wireless
Infrastructures
UCSD Wireless
Infrastructures
J. Pasquale, UCSD
Sensors Enable Real-Time Monitoring of Bridges
Through Wireless Internet
Local
Data Hub
Wireless
Internet
PC104
Control
Center
Users
Maria Feng
UCI Civil & Environmental Engineering
Caltrans
UCSD
UCI
Workstation
Sensor
Sensor
Data-Loggers
Integrating Wireless, Sensor and
Data-Management Technologies
Source: Graviton, a Cal-(IT)2 Partner
Millions of Video Cameras
Will Add Image Data Streams to the Net
• London Underground
– Initially 25,000 Video Cameras
– Expansion to 250,000 Possible
– British Transport Police Switch to Any Camera in 1 Sec.
– Source: Telindus
• British CCTV System
– Currently 2.5 Million CCTV Cameras Installed (NY Times)
– Average London Citizen is Seen by 300 Cameras Per Day
– Face Recognition Software Added in High Crime Areas
• Up to 6 Million Surveillance Cameras Across the USA
in 5-7 Years
– Privacy International Prediction
Shrinking Flying Wireless Sensor Platforms:
From Predator to Biomimetic Robots
1 Inch
300 Inches
UC Berkeley
Micromechanical
Flying Insect Project
General Atomics Predator
(Air Force, CIA)
20 Inches
UC Berkeley Aerobot
(ARO, DARPA, ONR)
(DARPA, ONR)
The Human Body Will Become
an Internet Data Source
Antenna
Transdermal Patch
“Smart Band-Aid®”
CPU/Comm Chip
Battery
Skin
Sensors:
- Physical
- Chemical
- Biological
• Patent Pending
Non-Invasive Platform
- Smart Band-Aid®
Can Also Link to Invasive Sensors
Source: PhiloMetron
Adding Wireless Sensors to Systems-on-Chip
Will Create Brilliant Sensors
Applications
Critical New Role of
Power Aware Systems
Sensors Embedded
Software
Processors
Memory
Protocol
Processors
Radio
DSP
Ad Hoc Hierarchical Networks
of Brilliant Sensors
Source: Sujit Dey, UCSD ECE
Internet
Over the Next Decade We Will Create the Field of
Nanobioinfoengineering
500x
Magnification
Nanogen MicroArray
2 mm
VCSELaser
400x
Magnification
IBM Quantum Corral
Iron Atoms on Copper
Human Rhinovirus
5 nanometers
New Cal-(IT)2 Buildings Have Clean Rooms
for Materials and Device Research
UCSD Building 2004
A LambdaGrid Will Be
the Backbone for an e-Science Network
Apps Middleware
•
Metro Area
Laboratories
Springing Up
Worldwide
•
Developing
GigE and
10GigE
Applications
and Services
•
Testing Optical
Switches
•
Metro Optical
Testbeds-the
next GigaPOP?
Clusters
Dynamically
Allocated
Lightpaths
Switch Fabrics
Physical
Monitoring
C
O
N
T
R
O
L
P
L
A
N
E
Research Topics for Building
an e-Science LambdaGrid
• Provide Integrated Services in the Tbit/s Range
– Lambda-Centric Communication & Computing Resource Allocation
– Middleware Services for Real-Time Distributed Programs
– Extend Internet QoS Provisioning Over a WDM-Based Network
• Develop a Common Control-Plane Optical Transport
Architecture:
– Transport Traffic Over Multiple User Planes With Variable Switching
Modes
– Lambda Switching
– Burst Switching
– Inverse Multiplexing (One Application Uses Multiple Lambdas)
– Extend GMPLS:
– Routing
– Resource Reservation
– Restoration
UCSD, UCI, USC, UIC, & NW
Research Topics for Building
an e-Science LambdaGrid
• Enhance Security Mechanisms:
– End-to-End Integrity Check of Data Streams
– Access Multiple Locations With Trusted Authentication Mechanisms
– Use Grid Middleware for Authentication, Authorization, Validation,
Encryption and Forensic Analysis of Multiple Systems and
Administrative Domains
• Distribute Storage While Optimizing Storewidth:
–
–
–
–
Distribute Massive Pools of Physical RAM (Network Memory)
Develop Visual TeraMining Techniques to Mine Petabytes of Data
Enable Ultrafast Image Rendering
Create for Optical Storage Area Networks (OSANs)
– Analysis and Modeling Tools
– OSAN Control and Data Management Protocols
– Buffering Strategies and Memory Hierarchies for WDM Optical
Networks
UCSD, UCI, USC, UIC, & NW
Mediation of Information Using XML
Allows Federation of Heterogeneous Databases
Source: Gupta, Marciano, Zaslavsky, & Baru (SDSC)
Multi-Sensor Data Fusion Control Rooms
Linked by Lambda Grids
• Integrate
–
–
–
–
–
–
Situational Awareness
Common Operational Picture
Local Data Warehouse with Remote Data Access
AI Data Mining of Distributed Databases
Spatial Data Analysis
Consequences Assessment Tool Set
Source: Panoram Technologies
Lambda Grids will Provide Access to
Many e-Science Community Resources
ALMA
LHC
Sloan Digital Sky Survey
ATLAS
Peer-to-Peer Computing and Storage
Is a Transformational Technology
The emergence of Peer-to-Peer computing
signifies a revolution in connectivity that will be
as profound to the Internet of future
as Mosaic was to the Web of the past.”
–Patrick Gelsinger, VP and CTO, Intel Corp.
Adding Brilliance to Mobile Clients with
a Planetary Supercomputer
• Napster Meets SETI@Home
– Distributed Computing and Storage
• Assume Ten Million PCs in Five Years
– Average Speed Ten Gigaflop
– Average Free Storage 100 GB
• Planetary Computer Capacity
– 100,000 TetaFLOP Speed
– 1 Million TeraByte Storage
• Serve as Global Compute and Storage
Server for Mobile Clients
Wireless Internet Puts
the Global Grid in Your Hand
802.11b Wireless
Interactive Access to:
• State of Computer
• Job Status
• Application Codes
Using Students to Invent the Future
of Widespread Use of Wireless PDAs
• Makes Campus “Transparent”
– See Into Departments, Labs, and Libraries
• Year- Long “Living Laboratory” Experiment 2001-02
– 500+ Wireless-Enabled HP PocketPC PDAs
– Wireless Cards from Symbol, Chips from Intersil
– Incoming Freshmen in Computer Science and
Engineering
• Software Developed
– ActiveClass: Student-Teacher Interactions
– ActiveCampus: Geolocation and Resource Discovery
– Extensible Software Infrastructure for Others to Build On
• Deploy to New UCSD Undergrad College Fall 2002
– Sixth College Will be “Born Wireless”
– Theme: Culture, Art, and Technology
– Study Adoption
and Discover New Services
2
Cal-(IT) Team: Bill Griswold, Gabriele Wienhausen
ActiveCampus Explorer:
PDA Interface
Source: Bill Griswold, UCSD CSE
ActiveCampus Explorer:
PDA Interface
Source: Bill Griswold, UCSD CSE
New Security Issues
in Mobile and Wireless Networks
• Location-based Access Control
– If Alice Is in Country P, She Can Do X
– If Alice Is in Country Q, She Can Do Y
– GPS? Need Tamper-Resistant Hardware…
• Group-Based or Group-Centric Security
– How Can One “Speak” As a Group or a Fraction Thereof?
– Admitting New or Expelling Existing Members
– Issuing, Re-issuing Credentials
• Secure Commun. in Constantly Changing Groups
– Group Needs Common Key: Key Distribution/Agreement
– Authentication of Membership
– e.g., Alice Is in This ad Hoc Net Cluster at This Time
Source: Gene Tsudik, UCI
Metro Lambda Grid Optical Data Analysis
“Living Laboratory”
• High Resolution
Visualization Facilities
SDSC UCSD
SIO
– Data Analysis
– Crisis Management
• Distributed Collaboration
– Optically Linked
– Integrate Access Grid
• Data and Compute
– PC Clusters
– AI Data Mining
• Driven by Data-Intensive
Applications
– Civil Infrastructure
– Environmental Systems
– Medical Facilities
Linking Control Rooms
Cox, Panoram,
SAIC, SBC, SGI, IBM,
TeraBurst Networks
UCSD Healthcare
SD Telecom Council
Cal-(IT)2 Multi-Megapixel Displays
for Seismic, Geosciences, and Climate Analysis
Cal-(IT)2 / SIO / SDSC / SDSU
Putting it All Together
The Cal-(IT)2 AutoNet Vision
• Autonet Concept
–
–
–
–
–
–
Mobile, Ad Hoc, Wireless, Peer-to-Peer Platform
Distributed Sensing, Computation, and Control
Autonomous Distributed Traffic Control
Mobile Autonomous Software Agents
Multi-Level State Estimation/Prediction
Decentralized Databases
• Path to Implementation
– UC Irvine’s Institution of Transportation Studies
– UCSD Computer Vision and Robotics Research Lab
– Caltrans ATMS Testbed + Cal-(IT)2 = Wireless SensorNet
ZEVNET “Living Laboratory”
– 50 Toyota Zero Emission Electric Cars
– Add GPS Tracking, Wireless Communications
Source: Will Recker, UCI
Experimenting with the Future
Video Cams, Fiber, Wireless, Robots
Mobile Interactivity Avatar
Computer Vision and Robotics Research Lab
Mohan Trivedi, UCSD