A GREENHOUSE GAS STRATEGIC MITIGATION PLAN FOR THE FORT LAUDERDALE/HOLLYWOOD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT A planning project submitted in partial fulfillment Of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF URBAN AND REGIONAL PLANNING School of Urban and Regional Planning College for Design and Social Inquiry Florida Atlantic University Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301 May, 2012 John William Bradford A.B. in English, Duke University M.P.A., Florida International University 1 Table of Contents List of Figures…………………………………………………………………… iv List of Tables……………………………………………………………………. v List of Acronyms………………………………………………………………… vi Executive Summary……………………………………………………………. viii Acknowledgments……………………………………………………………… ix Chapters 1. Introduction……………………………………………………… 1 2. Substantive Approach………………………………………….. 6 a. b. c. d. e. f. 3. 6 11 17 24 29 33 Planning Context………………………………………………. a. b. c. d. 4. World Encouragement to Curb Airport GHG…. Effects of Airport GHG………………………….. Towards Air Transportation Sustainability……. Comparable Airport GHG Mitigation Projects… Wildlife Hazard Mitigation………………………. Summary…………………………………………. Geography and Location……………………….. Governance Network…………………………… Physical Layout…………………………………. Previous Attempts to Address Problem………. 35 35 39 42 44 Problem Statement and Research Methods………………... 48 a. b. c. d. Suitability Analysis……………………………… Plant Distribution Mapping…………………….. Cost-Benefit Analysis…………………………... Summary…………………………………………. ii 49 60 62 65 Chapters (continued) 5. Analysis and Findings…………………………………………. 66 a. b. c. d. 6. 67 85 89 95 The Plan…………………………………………………………. 96 a. b. c. d. e. f. g. h. 7. Suitability Analysis……………………………… Plant Distribution Mapping…………………….. Cost-Benefit Analysis………………………….. Summary………………………………………… Plan Formulation……………………………….. Mission Statement……………………………… Developing a Budget…………………………… Plan Effectiveness……………………………… Plan Components………………………………. Future Growth…………………………………… “Vision of Success”…………………………….. The Actual Plan…………………………………. 96 98 98 99 100 103 104 106 Conclusions and Recommendations………………………… 107 a. b. c. Discussion………………………………………. 108 Recommendations……………………………... 111 Future Applications…………………………….. 114 References……………………………………………………………………… 118 Appendices 1. Appendix 1 (Florida Trees and Shrubs).……………………. 125 2. Appendix 2 (Rankings with no Logarithm)………………….. 161 iii List of Figures Figure 1, Map of Municipalities in Broward County, Florida (GIS)……….. 36 Figure 2, Map of FLL and Environs (GIS)…………………………………... 37 Figure 3, Governance Network of FLL…………………………………….... 41 Figure 4, FLL Study Area (facing westward)……………………………….. 43 Figure 5, Berm along South Runway (9R/27L)…………………………..... 58 Figure 6, Sea-Grape in Airport Highway Median………………………...... 59 Figure 7, Sparse Cypress Trees near North Runway (9L/27R)………….. 59 Figure 8, FLL in the Broward County Land Use Plan (2008)…………….. 61 Figure 9, Two-Step Clustering with Trees and Shrubs (Logarithm)…….. 75 Figure 10, FLL Plant Distribution Areas…. ………………………………… 86 Figure 11, Spacing between Trees and Shrubs…………………………… 88 Figure 12, FLL GIS Mitigation Strategic Plan……………………………… 106 Figure 13, Two-Step Clustering with Trees and Shrubs (no logarithm)… 167 iv List of Tables Table 1, FLL Visitor Statistics 2010…………………………………………. 38 Table 2, Florida Tree and Shrub Codebook………………………………... 51 Table 3, Florida Trees and Shrubs (Alphabetically)……………………..... 53 Table 4, Florida Trees and Shrubs (Ranking by Logarithm)……………… 69 Table 5, K-Means Clustering with Trees and Shrubs (Logarithm)……….. 75 Table 6, Hierarchical Clustering with Trees and Shrubs (Logarithm)……. 76 Table 7, Factor Analysis with Coefficients………………………………….. 80 Table 8, Factor Analysis with Coefficients Suppressed…………………… 82 Table 9, Top Twenty Trees and Shrubs…………………………………….. 84 Table 10, Acreage for Suitable Regions……………………………………… 87 Table 11, Cost-Benefit Analysis (Discount at 1%)…………………………… 92 Table 12, Cost-Benefit Analysis (Discount at 2%)………………………….. 93 Table 13, Cost-Benefit Analysis (Discount at 3%)………………………….. 94 Table 14, Comparing the Plan with Bryson’s (1995) Ten Pointers.………. 105 Table 15, Florida Trees and Shrubs (Ranking with no Logarithm)……...… 162 Table 16, K-Means Clustering with Trees and Shrubs (no logarithm)..…... 167 Table 17, Hierarchical Clustering with Trees and Shrubs (no logarithm)… 168 v List of Acronyms AOA Airport Operations Area BCAD Broward County Aviation Department CAP Climate Action Plan CBA Cost Benefit Analysis CO Carbon Monoxide CO2 Carbon Dioxide EIA Environmental Impact Assessment (Sweden) EIS Environmental Impact Statement (United States) EPA Environmental Protection Agency EU European Union FAA Federal Aviation Administration FAR Federal Air Regulations FDOT-A Florida Department of Transportation-Aviation FID Feature Identification Number (related to GIS) FLL Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport FROI Financial Return on Investment FS Florida Statute GHG Greenhouse Gases GIS Geographical Information Systems HC Hydrocarbons vi ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization IMO International Maritime Organization LEED Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design NOx Nitrogen Oxides O2 Oxygen NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NTSB National Traffic Safety Board PM Particulate matter RPZ Runway Protection Zone S FL South Florida SROI Sustainable Return on Investment VOC Volatile Organic Compounds (determined by EPA) vii Executive Summary Greenhouse gases at large international United States airports like Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport (FLL) present health hazards for those working and living near the airport. In order to mitigate such gases at FLL, it is proposed that airport management first explore carbon sinks using a list of recommended trees and shrubs to sequester carbon in the air through biochemical processes and photosynthesis. Specifically, native South Florida trees and shrubs can be planted virtually wherever permitted by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the Florida Department of Transportation-Aviation (FDOT-A), and the Broward County Aviation Department (BCAD). A suitability analysis was completed to find optimal native trees and shrubs for the project. Further analysis using a sustainable return on investment (SROI) was also implemented in order to determine whether this greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation project met specific standards and could be useful as a strategic plan (see Chapter 6) wherein trees and shrubs would be planted strategically around the airport notwithstanding the expansion of the southern runway (9R/27L). It is recommended that this plan be implemented and that government officials, business owners, and the public at large be included to ensure its proper implementation. viii Acknowledgments The author gratefully acknowledges the advice and information provided to him by the Broward County Aviation Department including but not limited to Mr. Jamie McCluskie, Mr. Dan Bartholomew, Mrs. Helena James-Rendleman, Ms. Annabelle Cumberbatch, Ms. Marie Irvin, and Mr. John Pokryske. Kindest thanks are also extended to Mr. Sergey Kireyev, Ms. Birgit Olkuch, and Mr. Aaron Smith with the Florida Department of Transportation-Aviation (FDOT-A), and to Ms. Amy Anderson with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The author also wishes to thank in earnest Professors Ann-Margaret Esnard, Yanmei Li, David C. Prosperi, Diana Mitsova-Boneva, and Department Chairman Jacobus Vos for their outstanding advice and enlightening recommendations which led to the eventual development of this plan. Final thanks go to Florida Atlantic University and the stellar employees of the University who successfully maintain the School of Urban and Regional Planning DeGrove Library and related student services, and who have provided exceptional advice and information during the author’s years of study at FAU. ix Chapter One Introduction Airport greenhouse gases (GHG) present a hidden danger to human life in and around the airport operations area (AOA). Whether you are an airport employee or a visiting passenger, you will be exposed to some of these gases. These gases come chiefly from jet engine and ramp vehicle exhaust. The extent to which these dangerous gases may exist is not limited to just airport runways; it also impacts homes and businesses in the immediate vicinity. Researchers at the University of California-Davis (Trendowski, n.d.) and also at the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (2003) found that these airport GHG hazards are known to deplete the oxygen in the air and create adverse levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx), hydrocarbons (HC), particulate matter (PM), carbon monoxide (CO), and other toxins in the air. Schlenker and Walker (2011) discovered that a one standard deviation increase in airport air pollution can lead to an additional one million dollar increase in hospitalization costs for respiratory and heart admissions for people living within ten kilometers of one of the twelve largest California airports. When one considers the cumulative costs and physical effects of airport GHG at the global scale, the impact can be staggering. It is clear that the world’s lack of attention to GHG and related health threats necessitates airport GHG mitigation. 1 The resolution of this problem is not without real challenges such as safety and cost. The research in this report does not offer an overall remedy for all airports, nor does it present a panacea that addresses GHG universally, including those pollutants that come from nearby factories. Moreover, this planning project report discusses how a carbon sink can reduce GHG toxins in and around an airport like Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport (FLL) using photosynthesis and an optimal variety of native flora planted at the airport. The following questions naturally emerge. Are native species truly ideal for this purpose, or should random choices of non-native species be permitted? Where should these plants go? Should airports plant trees and shrubs just anywhere, or are there regions such as the AOA which preclude the planting of certain foliage (such as near the tarmac)? Furthermore, do the benefits outweigh the costs of implementing such mitigation projects? If the net effect yields more oxygen and fewer GHG, how do these benefits calculate into dollars and cents versus the overall costs of buying trees and shrubs, planting them, and then maintaining them through periodic landscaping? Finally, how can FLL implement these ideas into a simple, cost-effective plan that can be replicated elsewhere? Consideration of these questions should encourage airport planners in the U.S. and other parts of the world to pursue similar steps to mitigate airport GHG. As Greenskies (2004), Duchene and Fuller (2011), and Moussiopoulos et al (1997) report, airports such as Amsterdam, Zürich, and Athens respectively have 2 already implemented similar procedures, ideas, and methods to curtail airport GHG and served as models for similar projects elsewhere. The importance of sharing the success of plans such as these could lead to improved air quality worldwide and could yield better discoveries in GHG mitigation overall for scientists and urban planners, not just for airport planners at FLL. Regardless, information gleaned from the European models will be utilized herein to serve as a foundation for mitigating GHG at FLL while other regional ideas from the United States will be considered as a backdrop for the actual airport GHG strategic mitigation plan presented at the end of this report. This report is divided into seven chapters which culminate with an actual strategic plan for implementation. The report begins with this first chapter— Chapter One—entitled “Introduction,” wherein the effects of GHG are presented briefly. This information leads to Chapter Two, “Substantive Approach,” which provides a literature review on the topic. Subtopics of the literature review include world encouragement to curtail GHG, effects of GHG such as costs to society and impact on human health and the environment, plans for sustainability including a discussion of electric ramp vehicles and roof top gardens, comparable airport GHG mitigation projects which feature airport fees as a means of recouping the costs of the impact of GHG on society, and a brief overview of wildlife hazard mitigation which becomes necessary when one considers attractants such as seeds and berries to birds and other animals. 3 Chapter Three, “Planning Context,” discusses Broward County, Florida with specific reference to the Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport. Maps are provided with a brief introduction to the region which includes various statistics about the community at large and about FLL, such as passenger and freight reports. Additionally, literature is reviewed pertaining to the Broward County Aviation Department (BCAD)—the authority over FLL—which includes their Environmental Impact Statement (EIS); the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Advisory Circulars, which specify what can be placed in the vicinity of an airport; and other plans which are already in effect for FLL. This review leads to the project’s methodology in Chapter Four, “Problem Statement and Research Methods,” which describes the suitability analysis for native South Florida trees and shrubs which can be used in the airport carbon sink and which could offer best carbon sequestration. The current arrangement of trees and shrubs at the airport is also discussed with criticism included for those plants surrounding the airport which are non-native or which do not maximize carbon sequestration. Additionally, financial data and mapping of the airport using geographical information systems (GIS) are presented for the costbenefit analysis and illustrative purposes respectfully. The results of the analysis appear in calculated form in Chapter Five. 4 Chapter Five presents the “Analysis and Findings” and reveals the findings of the suitability analysis, the distribution mapping, and the cost-benefit analysis for the planting of native trees and shrubs in the vicinity of FLL. The results appear in tabular and map form with a brief discussion of the impact of each component on the project at large. This information will determine whether the GHG strategic mitigation plan is feasible or not feasible to implement at FLL. Chapter Six presents a strategic plan to be implemented by the airport entitled “A GHG Strategic Mitigation Plan for FLL,” which develops the planting of trees and shrubs into a workable plan that can be implemented by the airport over time, or otherwise used for future study. Airport planners at FLL were consulted for their advice. One hopes the plan will lead to fruition and that the airport and immediate community may benefit considerably from such a GHG strategic mitigation plan. Finally, Chapter Seven, “Conclusions and Recommendations,” presents the conclusions that arise from the report and relates how the plan will benefit the immediate community and the world by and large. This chapter also presents ideas for future study and discusses how the plan connects to the greater planning context, such as the contribution to the world goal of reducing GHG. 5 Chapter Two Substantive Approach The research discussed in this chapter pertains to the necessity and importance of airport GHG mitigation and useful ideas and projects that can enhance the strategic mitigation plan for FLL. The following topics are included in the survey of literature that follows: world encouragement to curb airport GHG (including airline organizations), effects of airport GHG (such as the impact on human health and who is responsible), plans towards sustainability, comparable airport GHG mitigation projects (such as carbon sinks), and wildlife hazard mitigation (because of plant attractants in carbon sinks). This information appears as subchapters presented below. World Encouragement to Curb Airport GHG The increase of GHG from sources such as automobile and airplane traffic creates hazards for human life. According to Kump et al (2010; p.2), greenhouse gases are those which warm the Earth’s surface by “absorbing outgoing infrared radiation” and ultimately reduce sharply the amount of oxygen (O2) left for us to breathe. In Advances in Urban Ecology, Alberti (2009; p. 168) cites urban development as the key factor in the increase of GHG and suggests that 6 reduction of fossil fuel combustion emitted into the air is the best way to control toxins and prevent air pollution. Bartle (2006) states that airplane GHG are also believed to contribute considerably to global warming. Therefore, a need presently exists in which to reduce airport GHG globally and on a massive scale. Airplane traffic generates considerable amounts of air pollution and GHG. For instance, Blair Tindall of the Sierra Club (2003) discovered that airplane pollution creates 17.45 ounces per passenger per mile while automobiles contribute 9.45 ounces and Amtrak train service only 3 ounces. Granted that more automobiles exist than airplanes, these figures can be staggering when one considers the cumulative cost to society of airplane and automobile traffic. For this reason, Earth Talk suggests that public transportation is the greatest alternative, and since a greater number of cars currently travel the Earth’s roadways, airplanes—which sandwich in hundreds of passengers into a form of mass transportation—actually serve a better form of transportation than cars or trains—especially for long distances (About.com, n.d.). Therefore, the Sierra Club and Earth Talk would concur that we must keep air transportation and make some serious strides toward mitigating airport GHG and curtailing air pollution. This realization has spread across the globe and has been discussed significantly by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), and the Kyoto Protocol. According to 7 Oberthür (2003), the United Nations has been pressuring the ICAO and the IMO to regulate emissions by controlling “bunker fuels,” or aircraft and ship fuel. Although many nations—some of which are economically challenged and unable to comply readily with the request—have balked at the issue for political reasons, the ICAO and the IMO are considering detailed measures in compliance with the Kyoto Protocol. Oberthür (2003; p.196) cites “emission trading, voluntary agreements, operational measures, and emission-related levies” as means by which to reduce aviation GHG. Nevertheless, the author complains that the ICAO and the IMO are not behaving proactively, and that most nations are ignoring the situation rather than realizing the effect of airport GHG on climate change. In contrast to what Oberthür opines, Mendes and Santos (2008) argue that the European Union (EU) has reacted positively to the challenge of reducing airplane GHG. For instance, the EU has levied environmental taxes on air transportation through an EU “emissions trading scheme” (Mendes and Santos, 2008; p.189). The goal of these measures is to reduce the most significant toxins from EU air pollution including sulfur oxides, sulfur acid, and CH4. However, projected figures for 2050 show that CO2, contrails, soot aerosols, and stratospheric H2O will actually double in some cases. Mendes and Santos (2008) propose an emissions charge to target these air toxins based on travel destinations—such as Paris to London or London to Tokyo—based on aircraft type and “price elasticity,” such as the nature of travel (business or pleasure). 8 According to Mendes and Santos (2008), the EU takes the prospect of increased GHG in 2050 very seriously and strives to reduce GHG by tying in the externality to the economic costs of air travel. Where has the EU put these tax funds? Fern (n.d.) reports that the EU has invested its resources heavily into forests. While the idea may appeal to those who view forests as a panacea to mitigating GHG, Fern believes that reducing deforestation is no excuse for ignoring the need to reduce “emissions from burning fossil fuel” (Fern, n.d.). In other words, the EU can build as many forests as it wants, but if the EU does not control the source, airport GHG may continue to increase, and the net effect on society will be felt all over the world. The world looks to the EU for guidance and leadership, and if the EU cannot reduce emissions as Oberthür (2003) and Mendes and Santos (2008) have suggested, the problem will only get bigger. This argument is why Marcotullio (2003) studied globalization as it pertains to Asia-Pacific cities. The Pacific rim is growing dramatically and may eventually rival the Western world by 2050. However, at the time that Marcotullio (2003) published his findings, Asia-Pacific cities did not have a problem with environmental issues such as GHG so much as the EU and the United States possessed. Much of the Asia-Pacific rim was clearly not as developed, but it may be so now. Plans for airport projects such as Chek Lap Kok in Hong Kong, 9 Kansai in Osaka, Inchon in Seoul, and Dong Maung in Bangkok underscore the possibility for environmental problems including an increase in airport GHG in the next few decades (Marcotullio, 2003; pp.226-7). Regardless of city size, these airports represent potential for “reterritorialization of capital” and may transfer the focus of attention away from EU and United States destinations (Marcotullio, 2003; pp.226-7). The question is, what will the world do about controlling GHG in places like China? If the EU and the United States are having a hard time coordinating GHG policy in their own countries, how can developing nations like those in Asia and the Pacific rim control GHG effectively in theirs? Nonetheless, researchers including Nederveen, Konings, and Stoop (2003) and Bassett and Shandas (2010) theorize that there is potential in the making for transportation innovation and GHG management. Nederveen et al (2003) suggest that future technology may yield better airplanes that could reduce GHG emissions around the world. Likewise, Bassett and Shandas (2010) believe that climate action plans are the answer, and that entities such as airports can do considerably more to control GHG emissions than cities are presently doing. Regardless of what other theorists may have said, Nederveen (2003) and Bassett and Shandas (2010) remain optimistic about the world’s ability to mitigate airport GHG in some fashion or form. 10 In summary, ICAO and IMO have maintained the need to respond to airport GHG with due vigilance. While organizations like Fern belittle the achievements of the EU and the United States, it is important to bear in mind that—as Mendes and Santos (2008), Nederveen et al (2003), and Bassett and Shandas (2010) explain—technology and contemporary planning are leading the way for a better tomorrow. Moreover, wherever there is potential for change in the direction we are heading with GHG, one can only hope that the world can be saved effectively from the negative picture Oberthür (2003), Kump et al (2010), Alberti (2009), and Tindall of the Sierra Club (2003) have painted. For this reason, we look forward to a sustainable approach to handling airport GHG worldwide, given the myriad effects on communities and their inhabitants. Effects of Airport GHG While air transportation is known to create a number of externalities including noise and air pollution, airport GHG greatly damage the environment and animal and human life in a myriad ways. For instance, what human beings breathe into their lungs from being near an active aircraft could pose a threat to the lungs and the heart. In “Urban Planning and Air Pollution Control,” Kurtzweg (1973) was one of the first scientists to identify airplane-borne chemical factors which can impede overall health including the consumption of nitrates, sulfuric compounds, and carbon monoxide. Herndon et al (2005) found similar results in 11 their study entitled “Particulate Emissions from In-Use Commercial Aircraft” wherein particulate matter (PM) are identified as toxins that are dangerous to the health of human beings and other life forms in general. It is now generally known that there is a plethora of toxins that can be found in and around any airport. Peter Cork with “Fairfield Residents Against Airport Noise” (1999; p. 1-3) lists the following toxins commonly found at major airports: freon, methyl bromide, dichloromethane, dichloroethylene, carbon tetrachloride, benzene, styrene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acrolein, acetone, isobutylaldehyde, methyl ethyl ketone, benzaldehyde, butane, pentane, hexane, dimethyl disulfide, phenol, octane, anthracene, dimethylnapthalene, flouranthene, naphthalene, phenanthrene, pyrene, sulfites, nitrites, nitrogen oxide, nitrogen monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, nitrogen trioxide, nitric acid, sulfur oxides, sulfur dioxide, sulfuric acid, urea, ammonia, carbon monoxide, ozone, and particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5). With prolonged exposure to a combination of these chemicals, Cork states that various symptoms can form: “asphyxiation, cancer, conjunctive irritation, coughing, drowsiness, dyspnea, flushing, headache, heart disease, kidney damage, lung disease, lymphoma, mental depression, muscle weakness, nasal effects, pulmonary irritation, pulse rate decrease, skin and eye irritation, systemic irritation, tumors, vomiting, and wheezing” (1999; pp. 1-2). Although difficult to prove, the resultant conditions from exposure to airport toxins are clearly dangerous to the health of human beings. 12 Consequently, medical experts have taken great interest in the subject. For example, Lynne Eldridge, M.D., believes that air pollution in places such as airports produces deadly toxins that may contribute to lung cancer through “oxidative stress,” or damage to cells of the body through oxidation (Eldridge, 2011). However, Beverly Cohen et al at the New York University School of Medicine Institute of Environmental Medicine (2008; p. 119) agrees with the findings that airport-borne PM is dangerous to human health, but the effect of toxins downwind from airports on residents in the study was not “remarkable.” This discovery parallels findings in Larry West’s article (West, n.d.) that United States cancer deaths are on the decline for the first time in almost eighty years. Nevertheless, West concedes that heart disease figures have not changed. These authors present conflicting views on the current status of airport GHG with relation to human health. All would agree with Kurtzweg (1973) that toxins from aircrafts exist in some shape or form, but Cohen (2008) and West (n.d.) would argue that complaints about the severity of these effects on human health are not evident. Some might say that difficulty exists wherein doctors do not know whether lung cancer from planes might be mixed with cancer from smoking or other sources including genetic makeup (West, n.d.). Therefore, Eldridge (2011) and Herndon et al (2005) warn against the dangers of particulate matter from airplane exhaust and the recirculation of toxins at the airport, and they also indicate that additional dangers from airport GHG may exist which can 13 affect the environment and create a greater toll on human health and society. For instance, airport GHG have other direct and indirect effects on airport operations. For instance, the prospect of human illness directly affects local businesses in and around the airport. Should airport employees such as ramp agents become sick from toxic fumes directly from aircraft, they oftentimes leave the company or claim health benefits to fight infections or general ill health. These problems ramify into costs for the company to hire new workers either to supplement the labor of disabled workers or else to replace these workers who either leave or take long periods of time off from work. If one considers the arguments of Kurtzweg (1973), Eldridge (2011), or Herndon (2005), the likelihood exists that such problems on the airport operations area (AOA) could exist. These airport GHG effects are not limited to ramp workers alone. Pilots and co-pilots often come into contact with engine exhaust during routine aircraft checks before takeoff. Airport GHG can then drift into terminal buildings and around buildings into loading points and parking garages. Likewise, people who venture in and out of these terminal buildings including sky caps, airport staff, and passengers breathe the same toxins that pass into these buildings directly from the AOA. Airport GHG travel in and around the airport, and toxic fumes can sometimes spread to neighboring sites including homes and local businesses that surround the airport (Cohen, 2008). 14 Businesses could be held liable someday for emitting air pollution from aircraft engines including airport GHG although there are very few cases that have been prosecuted to date. The problem resulting from this situation is that the burden of proof lies with the plaintiff suing the businesses to prove that airport GHG and PM are directly responsible for illness or death of the individual. Regardless, it is within the best interests of airlines and other related companies to work vigilantly to find ways to reduce air pollution—specifically to mitigate airport GHG with toxic substances such as NOx and CO—in order to avoid losses because of sick employees or passengers who might litigate over exposure to these air-borne toxins. Overall, one must consider what the effect might be of airport GHG on the whole environment. One must ask then who is responsible: the airline or related businesses, the company that constructs the aircraft, the airport authority, or even the FAA. To track airport GHG as they emanate from the jet, scientists may someday utilize studies to track toxins from jet to lungs. Already MorenoJiménez and Hodgart (2003) and Theophanides and Anastassopoulou (2009) are using geographical information systems (GIS) to map the effects of airport GHG on the whole environment. While it remains unclear who is directly responsible for each molecule as airport GHG diffuse, there is presently a science for studying the effect of airport GHG on the whole environment—not just human beings, but plants and animals as well. 15 Inasmuch as the impacts of airport GHG on health and society are such critical topics for scientific research, it is clear that room exists for an integrated study into the net effect of airport GHG on the whole environment. The authors’ findings underscore the adverse effects of airport GHG and the probable increase of health problems as a direct result of an increase of air pollution over the last half-century. Moreover, they invite inquiry into the overall effects on human health and economic concerns such as health costs and responsibility. Granted that very few studies have been made of air pollution on plants and animals and other aspects of the environment, science may yield new discoveries into the effects of airport GHG on all flora and fauna. Regardless, the research and scholarship reviewed clearly indicates that airport GHG cause more damage than good to society, and that human health may be adversely affected by exposure to chemicals such as sulfuric compounds, NOx, and CO. 16 Towards Air Transportation Sustainability The impact of airport GHG on human health begs the question whether or not aviation is currently sustainable, and what plans can society develop to change a negative outcome. Earth Talk (n.d.) suggests that air transport is wholly justifiable and useful for mass transportation. However, some authors such as de Sherbinin, Schiller, and Pulsipher (2007) argue that air transportation is contributing far too much to climate change than previously reported by past research. The authors found that megacities such as Mumbai, Rio de Janeiro, and Shanghai have experienced more air pollution from the 1960s to the 1980s from airplane exhaust than any other type of fossil fuel combustion (de Sherbinin, 2007; pp. 49, 55, 60). As a result, steps are now underway to reduce certain kinds of air freight traffic globally. De Sherbinin et al (2007) would agree with the Sierra Club (2003), as discussed earlier, that air traffic GHG statistics parallel those for automobile traffic. However, de Sherbinin et al would not agree with Earth Talk (n.d.) that we should keep air traffic status quo simply because air travel is a useful means of mass transportation. Moreover, de Sherbinin et al (2007) hold that air transportation in general is not wholly sustainable for the years to come—not just from the aspect of airport GHG and its effect on human life, but also related topics including shortage of aircraft fuel and overall size of industry. Researchers 17 such as Viton (1989) anticipated that these factors would come to play early in the next century despite measures taken to make vehicles of the future— including aircraft—more fuel efficient and environmentally-sound. On the other hand, Knoflacher (2006) and Daley (2008) have examined air transportation planning for sustainability and would disagree greatly with researchers like de Sherbinin. Knoflacher (2006) believes that the problem is not the airplane per se; more and more fuel efficient aircraft are most definitely the way of the future. But as Knoflacher (2006) expounds, the key to sustainability is what to do about the everyday use of the modern car. De Sherbinin (2007) suggests that cars generate more GHG than aircraft. In fact, Daley (2008) believes that air transport could be the secret to sustainable development in the future for regions where automobiles and ships cannot gain easy access. Although airport GHG clearly pose a problem, society simply cannot live without air transportation. Nonetheless, Bartle (2006) warns Knoflacher and Daley on this point by citing that current trends reported in “The Sustainable Development of U.S. Air Transportation” are pointing towards significant problems for the future. These factors may ramify into and possibly influence sustainability of air transportation in other regions on the globe. Bartle (2006; p.214) encourages reducing the use of air travel and increasing taxes on air travel to reduce the “external costs 18 caused by air pollution.” Bartle’s (2006; p.215) best solution is to reform critical institutions globally—something that will combine environmental, economic, financial, and social factors, and that will address natural resources, standard of living, and elimination of poverty. Development of these concepts may reduce dependence on fossil fueled aircraft while better airplanes are constructed. Regardless of how long it may take to implement these measures, Bartle (2006; p.222) insists upon continuation of fuel taxes, “balancing mobility goals with resource preservation,” financing incentives to build better airports, conducting more cost-benefit analyses, studying emissions reductions, taxing international flights for creating GHG, enforcing the Kyoto Protocol, and enhancing the informational bonds among the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the FAA, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). One would hope that these initiatives will lead the world—especially the United States—to a more sustainable future for aviation and global travel. Sharing such optimism, Dodman (2009) discusses sustainability briefly in “An Analysis of Urban Greenhouse Emissions Inventories.” Dodman found that with the exception of China, the most densely populated regions—such as Tokyo, London, Toronto, or New York City—are presently using less energy for “private passenger transport” and emit less GHG (Dodman, 2009; p. 193). 19 Alternatively, airports are more fuel efficient and so is most public transportation. Dodman suggests that measuring GHG per region is one of the best ways to curb airport GHG and to promote a healthy competition among cities to see who can mitigate airport GHG the best (2009; p. 197). In this respect, and although current airport GHG levels are not sustainable, it is wise to suggest methods such as monitoring airport GHG around the world as a means of encouraging world cooperation pertaining to airport GHG mitigation. Granted that technological innovations are important, Dodman cites behavior changes—such as less frequent use of air transportation—as another important key to a sustainable future for aviation in general. Many of these authors suggest a number of ways by which airports can become sustainable in the years to come. Knoflacher (2006), Bartle (2006), and Dodman (2009) would agree with the Burbank Airport authority in California that sustainability is obtainable through a number of steps (Burbank, n.d.). For instance, Burbank has sponsored such improvements as electric ground service equipment, diesel parking lot shuttle buses, Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) hangars, waste recycling and landfill-avoidance projects, water recycling and catch basins, faucet aerators, and energy-efficient cooling systems. Camfil-Farr (n.d.) add to this proposal a means by which to reduce smog that enters back into the air terminal, namely the introduction of particle filters (“Hi-Flo,” “Opakfil Green,” “Ecopleat Green,” “Camcarb Metal,” 20 “Camcarb Green,” and “GDM 300”—just to name a few). By using monitoring devices such as the Camfil-Farr’s “Gigacheck” to detect nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and carbon compounds, it is possible to prevent airport GHG from entering the terminal building. These ideas have been discussed extensively during the past decade and have led to interesting sustainability projects in United States airports such as Seattle, Washington and Austin, Texas. For instance, Seattle, Washington spearheaded several initiatives to reduce airport GHG that have yielded a certain degree of success (Rice, 2010). Through territorialization of carbon and the use of carbon sinks (described later), Seattle is managing GHG in places where smog and air pollution usually accumulate, such as the Seattle-Tacoma “SEATAC” International Airport and the Boeing landing strip used for testing aircraft. Seattle’s action plan to meet airport GHG reduction objectives has led to energy conservation and improved transportation planning, thereby yielding greater potential for a sustainable future with considerable success for overall airport GHG mitigation (Rice, 2010). Similarly, the community of Austin, Texas has achieved great success with its climate action plan (Muraya, 2008). Addressing the need to reduce airport GHG in order to avoid global warming, the city voluntarily complied with the Kyoto Protocol to (1) convert more to solar energy, (2) embrace carbon neutrality 21 to avoid such a large carbon footprint, (3) build more LEED-like energy-efficient buildings, (4) increase regional forestation wherever possible, and (5) promote green technology and more GHG-efficient transportation (Muraya, 2008; p. 32-3). As a result of this project, Austin, TX leads the nation with GHG mitigation strategies that have ultimately reduced those GHG found at the regional airport. These ideas promote considerable GHG reduction and show that sustainability is possible for airports worldwide. In order to formulate a workable plan for airport GHG mitigation and for achieving sustainability for the project, some of the following ideas have been suggested: using electric ramp vehicles such as the push-back tow and the baggage wagons; making efficient use of outdoor lighting (i.e., use only essential lights at night); planting green roofs to reduce the effects of a heat island around the airport; utilizing efficient air cooling and heating systems inside airport terminals; and planting foliage around the airport to absorb the GHG that accumulate around the airport. The latter idea, known as carbon sequestration, is normally achieved through carbon sinks—some of which are natural and others which are man-made(Kump, Kasting, & Crane, 2010, p. 332). Carbon sinks are reservoirs that absorb CO2 via biochemical processes and photosynthesis by plants. Examples of carbon sinks include the ocean and some forested regions, such as those located around cities and possibly airports. 22 These ideas can be found in many climate action plans (CAPs) as a way to mitigate airport GHG. However, without addressing the net effect of jet engine exhaust on the tarmac, a CAP will be found lackluster. It is of paramount importance for any CAP to control the CO, CO2, NOx, and PM such as sulfuric compounds that builds up around the airport—not so much as a matter of energy efficiency, but to reduce air pollution and the buildup of breathable toxins. Regardless of the reason, CAPs are useful and recommended as a means by which to improve oxygen levels—something jet engines require as do human beings on the ramp, inside the terminal, and on the plane. In light of this idea, businesses have a vested reason to support a sustainable vision for the airport. In review of these concepts, society will likely pursue those goals which benefit everyone by and large. Therefore, to reach a certain sustainable future, airport planners must take all steps necessary to reduce airport GHG which include embracing electric vehicles and green roofs in addition to considering carbon sinks around the airport. If everyone can safely breathe the air, and if plants and animals are not harmed in the process, then one can say that plans— including GHG mitigation plans—are beneficial to society. Such a plan to mitigate airport GHG at FLL would ultimately lend itself to a broad sustainable vision for the immediate airport region which will be discussed later on in further detail. 23 Comparable Airport GHG Mitigation Projects One of the most significant developments in aviation which will impact airport GHG in the future is the rise of the aerotropolis. According to John Kasarda (2009), an aerotropolis is an airport like Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport or Stockholm’s Arlanda Airport wherein normal airline functions of the airport also include hotels, apartments, shops, business offices, information technology complexes, wholesale markets, religious centers, and recreational complexes. The aerotropolis means that more people will come to the airport to work and become exposed to the adverse effects of airport GHG. Giuliano and Small (1991) identify airport centers like Los Angeles’ LAX as job magnets for commerce and industry which can effectually bring in even more people— workers, visitors, and consumers—from overseas. The net effect of having so many people clustered around airports underlines the importance of reducing airport GHG in order to reduce health hazards wherever possible. As Prosperi (2008) would argue in “MIA: Miami International Airport or Miami Innovation Area,” the responsibility for protecting systems of airports like that of Miami International Airport, Palm Beach International Airport, and FLL, lies with the urban planner. Planners must examine the potential of larger-sized airports, such as the aerotropolis, and determine how safe the working environment truly is. As Bruinsma, Gorter, and Nijkamp (2000) explain, businesses will not relocate willfully to a smog-filled 24 location if they can avoid it. For instance, Amsterdam Schiphol Airport offers a number of amenities including intermodal networks, but without addressing the needs of businesses that wanted to move in, the airport could have become a veritable ghost town (Bruinsma, Gorter, & Nijkamp, 2000). To make a large international airport like Schiphol attractive as a “greenfriendly” commercial center, Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, the airport authority, engaged upon a massive airport GHG mitigation plan that involved planting of clustered two-meter high birch trees airside and landside of the airport (2010). Furthermore, the authority proposed to monitor airport GHG with special monitors placed strategically around the airport(Schiphol, 2010). MacHaris et al (2007) also cite recent success with electric vehicles towards a program of airport sustainability. These factors combine into an effective plan that could be used as a model for other airports around the world, and they show that even though the airport has expanded greatly in size since the construction of Schiphol as an aerotropolis and world business center, room can be left for green construction, green energy, and breathable air. It is true that Amsterdam is also revered for its railway shipment systems and the fact that GHG can be mitigated by transferring passengers and freight to electric rail systems rather than plane, bus, truck, or automobile. Caris et al (2008) noted that freight rail has been very popular, but waterway transport is just 25 as advantageous if not more practical in a country such as the Netherlands which is surrounded by water. The significance of the Dutch model draws attention to the similarity of Miami International Airport and FLL to Amsterdam Schiphol. The two United States airports could clearly benefit from an airport GHG mitigation plan based on the Schiphol model. Moreover, Amsterdam’s overall success has led to its notoriety as the “green airport,” or the airport to copy—as MacHaris et al (2007) imply. Airports such as Zürich, Switzerland; Stockholm, Sweden; and San Francisco, California have developed plans similar to the Amsterdam Schiphol Airport model for GHG mitigation. Stockholm and Zürich are two cities whose airports have developed remarkable GHG mitigation plans that have met with considerable success. Soneryd (2004) relates that Swedish airport regulation is similar to the system in place within the United States. For instance, there is an FAA and there is also an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) that functions like an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS). Through communication between the Swedish government and the airlines, people’s voices have been heard concerning environmental protection and people’s rights. In another study, Lidskog and Soneryd (2000) identify CO2 buildup as a critical component of most EIAs and stressed the importance of developing an ecologically sustainable transport system that benefitted all areas of transport including plane and rail. As a result of that study and similar studies, plans were drawn to make Stockholm’s main 26 airport, Arlanda, environmentally-conscious with energy efficient ramp vehicles and carbon sinks placed strategically around the airport. To offset the impact of air travelers in Arlanda with respect to their carbon footprints, Gössling et al (2009) report that Swedish airport authorities proposed a voluntary carbonoffsetting scheme to compensate airplane emissions. Even though Arlanda initially was not willing to participate in this project, other airports including Gothenburg shared positive results from carbon-offsetting (Gössling et al, 2009; p. 7). As Soneryd and Gössling suggest, Sweden’s dedication to the airport environment points to bold new ideas that can serve for as a useful model for airports elsewhere in the world. In light of these initiatives at Amsterdam Schiphol and Stockholm Arlanda, one might say that the calculations of airplane exhaust to the environment are a very sensitive topic. Lu and Morrell (2001) cite a number of European airport programs similar to Sweden’s that have tried voluntary offsets and environmental charges to passengers’ airfare, including Zürich and Amsterdam Schiphol. According to Cabanatuan in the San Francisco Chronicle (2009), some American airports like San Francisco International Airport have also developed programs by which passengers can pay for the cost of CO2 emissions during their flight from San Francisco by charging the offset voluntarily by credit card art a kiosk located inside the air terminal. This opportunity to reduce greenhouse gases is popular, but as Lu and Morrell (2001) report, the net revenue from these projects 27 does not compensate nearly enough compared to the total cost to the environment. In other words, the emissions charges on flights to and from Amsterdam, Stockholm, Zürich, or San Francisco do not go far enough to counteract the increase of externalities like greenhouse gases at these airports. In conclusion, the growing size of airports into entities such as Kasarda’s aerotropolis highlights the need to control airplane emissions at a larger scale. Large airports like Amsterdam Schiphol require special attention because they attract a number of multi-national corporations and bring with them countless business travelers from all over the world. As a result, Amsterdam Schiphol, Stockholm Arlanda, and Zürich Messe have gone “green”—that is to say, these airports have embraced electric ramp vehicles and carbon sinks as a way to reduce greenhouse gas buildup at the airport. To monitor the air quality levels at Amsterdam Schiphol, the airport authority has placed special air monitors strategically around the airport and dutifully studies the aviation-related GHG in the region. Stockholm and Zürich copied the Amsterdam model and built carbon sinks around the AOA. Moreover, Amsterdam, Zürich, and San Francisco have gone so far as to either charge for the GHG reduction directly to air fares, or solicit voluntary donations at kiosks at the airport like San Francisco. Clearly, airports in the future will need to address GHG mitigation through one or several of the ideas used in these airport models. 28 Granted that these airport models maximize landcover with trees and shrubs, one may wonder what the long term effects may be on animal life as well. Should trees and shrubs bear fruit, what hazards can one expect near the runway? How can airport planners avoid possible airstrikes? Wildlife Hazard Mitigation Human beings share their environment with other creatures that often depend on the same resources including air and water. Granted that there is usually plenty of space for human beings and other creatures such as birds, conflict between the two can occur when a plane is taking off from a runway near an estuary or an area fraught with animal life. Ultimately, one hears of birds being sucked into aircraft engines, such as the case of US Airways Flight 1549 from New York LaGuardia Airport to Charlotte, North Carolina on January 15, 2009. These instances of bird strikes are becoming far too common not just in the United States, but overseas as well. For instance, on November 10, 2008, there was a Ryanair Boeing 737 from Frankfurt to Rome which had to make an emergency landing after bird strikes knocked all engines out of commission and forced a landing wherein the landing gear collapsed (Shea, 2009). These cases underscore the importance of finding a balance between caring for the environment and safely maintaining the needs of human beings. 29 One can easily see how the number of conflicts could rise over the years as the quantity of aircraft in the skies increases. This situation begs the question of what to do with saving animal and possibly even human lives in the future. Human and animal safety necessitates mitigation through monitoring and taking steps towards increased wildlife management in the vicinity of airports. As Embry-Riddle University’s Wildlife Management Studies have reported on these activities, airlines and airports—in other words, both public and private sectors— have taken an active interest in the maintenance of wildlife near airfields and associated populated urban regions (Embry-Riddle University, n.d.). Wildlife management has included everything from manipulation of the targeted habitats using predators to repelling or even killing those hazards that present a danger to aircraft. Several methods are now implemented to control wildlife hazards in a safe and humane way. Of course, the easiest way to mitigate wildlife hazards is to reduce the number of fruit-bearing trees and shrubs in the vicinity and to keep foliage surrounding the airport trimmed back as much as possible. Animals like deer like to hide in thickets, and birds tend to congregate on tree limbs. If an airport has too many of these elements near the runways and airport terminals, Airport Wildlife Consultants (2011) suggest that animals will grow too accustomed to living around aircraft and venture too close to jets during takeoff 30 and landing. To address these issues, Airport Wildlife Consultants (2011) has conducted wildlife surveys and has appropriately designed wildlife management plans which use mechanical control of the habitat, chemical control to dissuade animals from living near airports, and population control with lethal and non-lethal measures to limit the number of animals from living near airports. The success of Airport Wildlife Consultants shows that in case of an emergency, such as the congregation of birds and other wildlife near New York’s JFK International Airport, immediate response is necessary to mitigate wildlife hazards of any kind, whether bird or mammal. There are certain species which are most hazardous to aircraft and which can be found near many airports in the United States. According to Airport Wildlife (n.d.), the top twelve hazardous animals include—in order of greatest number of strikes—white-tailed deer, vultures, Canadian geese, cranes, ospreys, cormorants and pelicans, ducks of all kinds, hawks, eagles, rock doves, gulls, and herons. Of these twelve species on the wildlife hazard mitigation list, many such as geese, ducks, doves, gulls, and herons are known to thrive in the John U. Lloyd State Park habitat located just within a mile of the North Runway of FLL. While it is true that these animals do not come regularly into contact with aircraft landing and taking off at FLL, there is considerable concern over the planting of sea grape trees and other flora which may attract some birds to the landscaped regions along the outside rim of the AOA with the promise of fruit and places to 31 roost. Inasmuch as airports in other locations of the United States, such as New York’s LaGuardia and JFK Airports, have experienced more trouble with less foliage around each respective airport, one can easily see the immediate danger of planting fruit-bearing trees like the sea grape and similar bird-friendly shrubs around air terminals and active runways at FLL. With regard to wildlife management surrounding FLL, one notes that the habitat surrounding the airport provides amply for the food and water of birds and even some mammals. These creatures will be drawn to improper landscaping, such as dense underbrush or fruit-bearing trees, which often looks attractive to airport visitors, but even more so to hazardous wildlife. Embry-Riddle stresses the need of airports like FLL to consider carefully the local habitat and nearby parks and wildlife refuges, such as John U. Lloyd State Park (Embry-Riddle University, n.d.). Consequently, it is of paramount importance to plan airport growth and expansion warily by controlling land uses so that hazards such as bird and mammal strikes can be avoided. The FAA has monitored wildlife strike activity over the years and has issued Advisory Circulars that specify what wildlife hazard mitigation procedures must be put into place. Granted that birds can often be seen near FLL— especially near the berms along the South Runway, the FAA reports that as of August 27, 2011, virtually no wildlife strikes have occurred within the vicinity of 32 FLL and its runways since the database was inaugurated on January 1, 1990 (FAA, 2011). This information comes from the Wildlife Mitigation database on which details are kept pertaining to the airport, airline, aircraft type, engine type, list of damage, and species hit. Moreover, the FAA has not required FLL to maintain a Wildlife Hazard Mitigation Plan. The ramifications of the FAA’s decision are discussed further in the analytical section of this report. Summary World organizations including ICAO and the EU have encouraged the reduction of GHG from airports. These GHG contribute considerably to the detriment of human health through the accumulation of CO, CO2, NOx, and PM involving sulfuric compounds. People who consume these GHG include airport employees and even passengers who frequently visit the airport. Responsibility for mitigating airport GHG lies with the airlines, the aircraft manufacturers, and even the airport authorities including the FAA. Plans for sustainability which include electric ramp vehicles, roof top gardens, and airport sinks are underway in most places around the world. Popular destinations such as Amsterdam, Stockholm, Zürich, and San Francisco have instituted airport GHG mitigation projects which feature airport fees as a 33 means of recouping the costs of mitigating GHG. An additional problem not routinely discussed includes wildlife hazard mitigation, which becomes necessary when one considers how carbon sinks such as shrubs are also attractants that lure birds and other animals too closely to aircraft and their engines. 34 Chapter Three The Planning Context The focus of this report is on the reduction of airport greenhouse gases at the Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport. FLL is an international airport that serves all of Broward County, Florida and is named for the county seat, Fort Lauderdale, and the next closest municipality to the airport, namely Hollywood. There is one other important airport located in Broward County which caters principally to private aircraft, propeller freight, and air charters, specifically the Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport. Both airports are located centrally on the eastern seaboard along the coast of Florida. Geography and Location FLL can be found in Broward County, Florida approximately twenty-five miles due north from downtown Miami. People from all over the world come to Fort Lauderdale for conferences and to visit the beaches. Broward County covers some 1,220 square miles, which computes to approximately 766,016 acres, and covers thirty-one municipalities, some of which include: Cooper City, Coral Springs, Dania Beach, Davie, Deerfield Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Hallandale Beach, Hollywood, Pembroke Pines, Plantation, Pompano Beach, Southwest 35 Ranches, Sunrise, Tamarac, Weston, and Wilton Manors. The map in Figure 1, created using ArcMap Version 10.0, shows Broward County with FLL next to the communities of Dania Beach, Hollywood, and Fort Lauderdale. Further detail of the airport can be seen in Figure 2 including Snyder Park and the community of Melaleuca Gardens along the southern ridge of the airport. Figure 1: Map of Municipalities in Broward County, Florida (GIS) Data Sources: Broward County GIS and Florida Geographic Data Library Projection: NAD83 HARN State Plane Florida East FIPS 0901 Feet Map designed on 2-8-12 by John Bradford. FAU research only. 36 Figure 2: Map of FLL and Environs (GIS) Data Source: Broward County GIS Projection: NAD83 HARN State Plane Florida East FIPS 0901 Feet Map designed on 2-8-12 by John Bradford. FAU research only. Visitor data and airport statistics for 2010 appear in Table 1(sunny.org, 2011). The table shows the importance of FLL and the traffic it generates. Over twenty-two million people were processed through the airport in 2010 which netted tens of millions of dollars for the local economy. Accordingly, FLL is a veritable money-maker that features hundreds of domestic and international flights daily. Unfortunately, these same flights can create clouds of GHG on the runway and the AOA, and affect the lives of thousands of people every day (Schlenker & Walker, 2011). As previously discussed in Chapter 2, GHG can travel beyond the AOA and reach curb-side and even inside the air terminal. 37 Table 1: FLL Visitor Statistics, 2010 10.84 million 2.4 million 22.4 million 621 36 1.8 million $8.69 billion $36.5 million TOTAL 2010 VISITORS (includes international and domestic passengers who disembark and do not transit through the air terminal) INTERNATIONAL VISITORS (disembark at FLL and do not transit) Canadian: 835,947 Latin American: 558,426 European: 364,952 Scandinavian: 226,143 United Kingdom: 181,947 Other Foreign visitors: 236,748 TOTAL AIR PASSENGER ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES AT FLL (IN 2010) (includes passengers who transit through airport and do not disembark at FLL) DAILY AIRLINE ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES SCHEDULED AIRLINES AT FLL BROWARD COUNTY POPULATION (IN 2010) TOTAL VISITOR EXPENDITURES (IN 2010) 2010 TOURISM GENERATED TAX REVENUES derived from 5% bed tax collected by area hotels Source: sunny.org, 2011. 38 Governance Network The interaction and interdependency of key government offices highlight the dynamic forces at play that provide governance over airport activities at FLL. Figure 3 shows the conceptual framework and layers of airport authority which govern each office and in effect regulate others. This unique system of checks and balances ensure that no one department or agency has more influence over airport issues than another. For instance, the FAA has considerable pull over airport regulated size, while FDOT-A can specify runway clearance dimensions that are not already determined by the FAA in one of their Advisory Circulars. Additionally, BCAD can argue how those clearance dimensions are to be interpreted locally as a matter of practicality. The checks and balances system works efficiently among aviation-related agencies and bureaus, but BCAD must also answer to the EPA, which comes under a different federal umbrella. The EIS (FLL, 2008) drafted to the EPA in order to answer air quality issues also specifies regulations for wetlands and noise mitigation. These problems are not routinely addressed by the FAA or any other agency except the EPA. Conflict among these different government agencies and departments can sometimes lead to Congressional debate and eventual resolution in a legislative decision, or else it results in court action. 39 Nevertheless, according to the tenets of our system of government, the ultimate governing power rests with the general public. The net effect of this interplay among government offices at FLL results in decision-making for the people by the people. Granted that residents of Melaleuca Gardens (see Figure 2) challenged FLL recently on the issue of expanding the southern runway, measures were taken to mitigate the impact of aircraft engine noise, and plans have been made to follow through with runway expansion. Borrowing from this model of cooperation, Quay (2010) in “Anticipatory Governance” supports getting all parties involved with controlling carbon emissions—especially at sensitive GHG locations like airports. In this way, FLL stands to benefit by getting all agencies, business owners, and the general public involved in the process of creating a practical carbon sink to mitigate airport GHG. 40 Figure 3 (Created by John Bradford at FAU, 12-6-11): 41 Physical Layout FLL is strategically located near the ocean to utilize the easterly winds and easy access routes along the eastern coast of the United States. The airport makes use of two principal runways—the northern runway (9L/27R) and the southern runway (9R/27L), the latter of which will be expanded in the next few years. There is also a diagonal runway which is not normally used and which will be removed in conjunction with the expansion of the southern runway. These runways are true hubs for GHG accumulation, for planes generate tons of CO, CO2, and NOx even as they taxi to the runway or wait for departure at the edge of a runway. Granted that the air off the ocean may help to dissipate some of the accumulations of GHG at FLL, airport GHG still collect near the runways, taxiways, and air terminals. The aerial view of FLL in Figure 4 gives depth to the air terminals which surround the parking garage and rental car facilities located in the center of the image. One can see that foliage presently exists around the airport and that the islands between taxiways and runways consist of mostly short grass. Currently, the airport has pockets of native and non-native trees and shrubs which appear by the terminal buildings, roadways, and berms on the south side of the airport. Many of the extant trees and shrubs require much upkeep and landscaping and do not maximize the utilizable space in and around the airport to reduce GHG. 42 Their design was chiefly to beautify the airport surroundings, and in the case of the Cypresses, to absorb rainwater that accumulates in ditches near the bioretention pond by the northern runway (9L/27R). These plants do not adequately address the needs of an airport carbon sink. Figure 4: FLL Study Area (facing westward) Source: fllareal.jpg at longtermparking.com, 2011. In addition to constructing a carbon sink at the airport, planting more native species of South Florida trees and shrubs will create a vital north-south link of greenery to promote and foster oxygen distribution and to reduce GHG throughout the South Florida region. According to Bueno et al (1995) in “South Florida Greenways: A Conceptual Framework for the Ecological Reconnectivity of the Region,” the vitality of South Florida depends on ribbons of ecological fabric to be interwoven within the communities. These ribbons include strips of 43 public space such as the Everglades and slivers of park space and trees such as the network of greenspace along Park Road in Broward County, Florida. These “greenway” networks distribute air more effectively than mere planting of trees in one’s backyard and create a necessary ecological balance with drainage canals and reservoir levees (Bueno et al, 1995; p. 247). Previous Attempts to Address Problem With its wide open spaces and buildup of GHG, FLL is in great need of ecosystem management. The problem exists not just with the buildup of carbon emissions, but also with the effect on water and greenways throughout South Florida. These issues generate a prevalent concern that South Florida’s environment is suffering, and that large GHG-producing systems like FLL are clearly to blame. The arguments here are what to do about managing GHG at FLL, and how can the use of greenspace in the way of a carbon sink enhance this plan? FLL has tried to address the problem before, and reference is made thereto in FLL’s Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (FLL, 2008). Under the relevant heading of “Air Quality” in the EIS, FLL states that it has met the following ten goals: (1) “pollution controls devices or systems;” 44 (2) “paving and maintenance” to reduce dust; (3) “application of water or dust suppressants;” (4) addition of water or asphalt to suppress dust on unpaved roads; (5) securing PM from roadways “and other paved areas;” (6) “landscaping or planting of vegetation;” (7) utilization of filters or hoods to control PM; (8) “confining abrasive blasting where possible;” (9) “enclosure or covering of conveyor systems;” and (10) “limiting the height of open storage piles.” (FLL, 2008; pp. 6.B-2,3) In light of these recommendations, FLL has sought to control air quality around the AOA and other locations. Some of these other locations include the “terminal curbfront,” the “north side of the airport beyond Interstate 595 east of Snyder Park,” the “off-airport parking lot east of Interstate 95,” and the residential communities south of Runway 9R/27L, namely the homes of Melaleuca Gardens (FLL, 2008; p. 6.B-35). See Figure 2 for location of these sites. A “pollutant dispersion analysis” was conducted and included in the EIS with the timeframe of 2009 through 2020 in order to prove that the Broward County Aviation Department was indeed addressing the issues of air pollution and airport GHG (FLL, 2008; p. 6.B-35). This analysis had ten scenarios presented on page 6.B-6 including existing conditions in 2005, and the best alternative (D2) shows that the airport hopes to reduce GHG by 2020. 45 The presentation of data according to Alternative D2 in the EIS shows that with the exception of anticipated southern runway construction aimed for 2015, the airport should be able to maintain aircraft GHG emissions such that by 2020, the total pollutant emissions of CO, NOx, SOx, PM, and similar GHG from aircraft should reach 4,510.32 tons per year (FLL, 2008; p. 6.B-34). Granted that FLL’s expected quantities are not ideal, it should be noted that annual emissions for ground service equipment, roadways, parking garages, and other sources combined contribute to 7,499.18 tons per year, which is sixty-two point four percent (62.4%) of total FLL airport-related GHG emissions by 2020 (12,009.50 tons per year). Nevertheless, Alternative D2 is still better than no action at all. Of all the initiatives FLL has pursued, the one factor which could decrease GHG emissions the most is item (6), specifically “landscaping or planting of vegetation” (FLL, 2008; p. 6.B-2). If the airport were to maximize arable land cover with native trees and shrubs and to concentrate on the use of a carbon sink to reduce GHG at FLL, these goals mentioned in the EIS could be met with better response. As it were, FLL has planted many trees and shrubs strategically around the airport to beautify surroundings with native and non-native species. One purpose of this research is to determine the optimal variety of native species of tree and shrub and to locate ideal locations around the airport which would 46 benefit the most from a carbon sink. More on this topic appears in the following two chapters. 47 Chapter Four Problem Statement and Research Methods Information reviewed in the preceding chapters emphasizes how GHG may be accumulating at FLL insofar as a veritable carbon sink does not presently exist by which to reduce the toxins in the air. It was established in Chapter 2 of this report that GHG present a danger to the environment and to human life. Granted that FLL’s EIS does address some of these concerns, there is no strategic plan in place as of yet to mitigate the airport’s GHG. Models of other airports’ plans—including those of Amsterdam, Zürich, and Stockholm—have been reviewed for the practicality of establishing a similar one at FLL. Additionally, San Francisco’s voluntary carbon off-setting program has been studied for the possibility of applying such a program at FLL. However, it is clear from the literature and from conversation with FLL’s Airport Planning Manager Dan Bartholomew (Oct 19, 2010) that FLL presently does not have in place a plan with which to address airport GHG. The problem with FLL’s GHG is how to mitigate safely and cheaply the toxins that come from engine exhaust at the airport. Granted that roof top gardens can be constructed on the roofs of some airport terminals, and that diesel-burning ramp vehicles can be replaced with electric engines, the question remains: what else can be done to reduce GHG from airplane exhaust? 48 Therefore, for the purpose of formulating an effective research question, one must ask: can a carbon sink and carbon sequestration safely and cheaply reduce the GHG at FLL through the use of native trees and shrubs around the airport? Moreover, where should this vegetation go—i.e., solely by active runways or else at places landside near airport buildings? Suitability Analysis Microsoft Excel and SPSS/PASW were used to identify those trees and shrubs which meet recommended Florida standards and would be useful for constructing a carbon sink (see Appendix 1 for full detailed listing). Plants were clustered for optimized qualities, such as exposure to full daily sunlight and summer flooding and rain. The codebook used for this purpose is presented in Table 2, and the alphabetical listing of all possible native trees and shrubs with all measurable qualities appears in Table 3. Qualities were somewhat subjectively assigned a categorical number—0, 1, or 2—based on the desirability of each attribute or quality. For instance, numbers of zero are considered optimal—such as a plant’s ability to resist direct sunlight—while numbers of one and two are considered least preferred (in that order)—such as a plant’s poor ability to withstand direct sunlight. The only two non-categorical variables used in this study include the name of the plant and its height. 49 Categorical numbers were then multiplied by a different computed weight for each construct using a base of 10 instead of a base of 100. For example, a computed weight of 0.9 (in base 10) is equivalent to a computed weight of 9% (in base 100). These weights were also determined somewhat subjectively, but clearly illustrate the desirability of each key construct. As an example, the height of plants is perhaps the most important variable and was therefore, given a computed weight of “1.” However, the preferred closeness of certain plants to the same species would be considered the least important construct in this model, and therefore, the construct was given a computed weight of “0.4.” The summation of weighted numerical values in each row of data was computed and tallied to the extreme right-hand side of the spreadsheets (see Chapter 5 for calculations). Height for each row was calculated with a computed weight of 10% (1.0 of 10.0 in the following tables) and was transformed later on using a logarithm of each value in order to make large and small numbers less pronounced. The choice between the two formats yields one with fewer outliers, namely the one with logarithms. Trees and shrubs were then ranked from most functional in the proposed carbon sink at FLL (sums closest to zero) to most ineffective (sums of largest number). More detail on each species of tree or shrub referenced in this study appears in Appendix 1. The findings of this suitability analysis appear in Chapter 5. 50 Table 2: Florida Tree and Shrub Codebook Construct Computed Weight (%) Computed Weight (as of base 10) Range (weighted value for ranking purposes) 1. Name Common name of tree or shrub species 2. Water 9% 0.9 of 10.0 High (1.8), Medium (.9), or Low (0) requirement for standing water (seasonal) 3. Soil 9% 0.9 of 10.0 Sand, Any, or Mixed (0); Scrub or Marsh (.9), or Forest or Swamp (1.8) preferred soil-types 4. Foliage 7% 0.7 of 10.0 High (0), Medium (.7), or Low (1.4) density of leaves 5. Pruning 5% 0.5 of 10.0 High (1.0), Medium (.5), or Low (0) implies frequency of pruning 6. Fertilize 4% 0.4 of 10.0 Medium (.8), Low (.4), or None (0) indicates frequency of fertilization 7. Sun 8% 0.8 of 10.0 High (0), Medium (.8), and Low (1.6) tolerance for sun 8. Proximity 4% 0.4 of 10.0 All (0) means plant grows anywhere, while Like (.8) means plant prefers to grow near its own kind 9. Climate 8% 0.8 of 10.0 All or S Florida (0), C Florida (.8), or N Florida (1.6) indicates the region the species would ordinarily prefer 10. Wind 7% 0.7 of 10.0 High (0), Medium (.7), or Low (1.4) tolerance of gales 51 Construct Computed Weight (%) Computed Weight (as of base 10) Range (weighted value for ranking purposes) 11. Wildlife 8% 0.8 of 10.0 High (1.6), Medium (.8), or Low (0) desirability among animals for nest-making 12. Berry 8% 0.8 of 10.0 Yes (1.6) or None (0) implies production of berries or seeds 13. Flower 5% 0.5 of 10.0 Yes (1.0) or None (0) yields insect and bird attracting flowers 14. Fruit 8% 0.8 of 10.0 Yes (1.6) or None (0) indicates that the species produces some kind of fruit large enough to attract small animals (e.g., opossums, raccoons, birds, and deer) 15. Height* 10% 1.0 of 10.0 Interval numbers ranging from zero to 100 feet which determine the standard height of the species at which it matures and can be easily pruned if necessary (*10% and logarithm of each species’ height is compared. See Chapter 5.) 16. Sum 100% 10.0 of 10.0 Ratio numbers calculated by adding each row across 52 Table 3: Florida Trees and Shrubs (Alphabetically) Name Water Soil Foliage Pruning Fertilize Acacia Sun Proximity Medium Sand Medium Low None High All American Elm Low Sand High High None High Like Bald Cypress High Swamp Low None None High Like Beachcreeper Medium Sand Medium None None High All Beautyberry Low Sand Low High None Medium All Bigflower Pawpaw Medium Scrub High None None High All Bitterwood Low Marsh Medium Medium None High All Black Ironwood Medium Mixed High High Low Medium All Black Mangrove High Marsh High High None High Like Buttonbush High Swamp Medium None None Medium All Buttonwood Low Sand High Medium None High All Chapman's Oak Low Sand High Medium None High All Cherokee Bean Low Sand High High Medium High All Coastal St. J.-W. Medium Marsh High None None High Like Coastplain Willow Medium Marsh Medium None None Medium All Coco Plum Medium Scrub High Medium None High All Coconut Palm Medium Sand Low Medium Medium High All Coin Vine High Swamp Medium None None Medium Like Dahoon Holly High Marsh Low Medium None High Like 53 Climate All Florida N Florida S Florida S Florida All Florida S Florida C Florida S Florida S Florida C Florida All Florida S Florida All Florida All Florida S Florida C Florida S Florida S Florida C Florida Wind Wildlife Berry Flower Fruit Height High Low None None None 15 feet Medium High None Yes None 20 feet High Low None None None 50 feet Medium Low None Yes None 3 feet High Medium Yes Yes None 6 feet High Low None Yes None 6 feet Medium Medium None Yes Yes 20 feet Low High Yes Yes None 30 feet Medium High None None None 50 feet High Medium None Yes None 12 feet High Low None None None 5 feet High Low Yes None None 10 feet High High None Yes Yes 16 feet High Low None Yes None 3 feet Medium High None Yes None 25 feet Medium High None Yes Yes 10 feet High High None Yes Yes 20 feet High Low None Yes Yes 5 feet Medium High None None Yes 25 feet Deerberry Low Sand Medium None None Medium All Devil's Wlkg. Stick Medium Any Medium High None High All Doctorbush Low Sand Medium High None High All Dwarf Live Oak Medium Scrub High High None High Like Elderberry Low Mixed Medium Low None Medium All Ficus Medium Sand High High None High All Fiddlewood Medium Sand Medium None None Medium All Firebush Medium Sand Medium None None High All Florida Privet Medium Sand High None None High All Florida Rosemary Low Scrub Low None None High All Geiger Tree Medium Sand Medium None None Medium All Gray Nicker Medium Sand Medium Medium None Medium All Graytwig/Whitewood Medium Sand High Medium None High Like Ground Oak Medium Scrub Medium Medium Medium Medium All Groundsel High Marsh Medium None None Medium All Gumbo Limbo Medium Sand Medium None None High All Indigo Bush Medium Marsh Low High None Medium All Inkberry Medium Marsh High Medium None Medium Like Jamaica Caper High Scrub High Medium None High All Jungle Plum Low Mixed Medium High None Low All Lancewood Medium Any Medium High None Medium Like Lantana Medium Sand High High None Medium Like 54 C Florida All Florida S Florida S Florida All Florida S Florida S Florida S Florida S Florida N Florida S Florida S Florida S Florida S Florida S Florida S Florida All Florida C Florida S Florida C Florida All Florida All Florida High Medium Yes Yes None 5 feet Medium High Yes Yes None 20 feet Medium Low None Yes None 3 feet High Medium None Yes None 3 feet Medium High Yes Yes None 20 feet High Low None None None 10 feet Medium Medium None Yes None 15 feet High High None Yes Yes 10 feet High Low None Yes None 8 feet High Medium None None None 5 feet Medium Low None Yes None 25 feet Medium Low None Yes None 10 feet High Low None Yes None 15 feet Medium High None Yes Yes 1 foot High Low None None None 7 feet High Low None None None 25 feet Medium Low None Yes None 3 feet Medium High None Yes None 4 feet Medium High None Yes Yes 15 feet Low High None Yes Yes 40 feet Medium Medium Yes Yes None 25 feet High Low Yes Yes None 5 feet Laurel Oak Any Any Medium Medium Medium Medium All Lignum Vitae Medium Sand Medium Low None High All Live Oak Medium Sand Medium High None High All Loblolly Bay Medium Marsh Medium Medium Medium Medium Like Mahogany Low Sand Medium Medium None High Like Marlberry Low Mixed Medium Medium None Medium All Myrsine Medium Any Medium None None Medium All Myrtle Oak Medium Sand Medium None None Medium All Paurotis Palm High Sand Medium Medium Low High All Persimmon Low Swamp High High None High All Pigeon Plum Medium Mixed Medium High Low Medium All Pineland Acacia Medium Sand Medium None None High All Pineland Snowberry Low Forest High Low None Medium Like Poisonwood Low Any Medium High None Medium All Pond Apple Medium Marsh Low None None High All Queensdelight Low Scrub Medium Medium Medium Medium Like Red Mangrove High Marsh High High None High Like Red Maple Low Sand High Medium None High Like Red Mulberry Low Marsh Medium None Medium Medium All Reticulate Pawpaw Medium Scrub High None None High All Rouge Plant High Sand High High Medium Medium All Roundpod St. J.-W. Medium Marsh High None None High Like 55 S Florida All Florida All Florida C Florida All Florida C Florida N Florida C Florida S Florida All Florida S Florida S Florida N Florida All Florida S Florida N Florida S Florida C Florida N Florida S Florida S Florida All Florida High High None Yes None 60 feet High Low Yes Yes None 15 feet Low Medium None None None 60 feet Medium Medium None Yes None 40 feet Medium Low None Yes Yes 35 feet Medium Medium None Yes Yes 12 feet Medium Medium Yes Yes None 20 feet High Low None None None 5 feet High Medium Yes Yes None 20 feet Low High None Yes Yes 40 feet Medium High None Yes Yes 30 feet High Low None Yes None 10 feet Medium Medium Yes None None 10 feet Medium Medium Yes Yes None 20 feet Low High None Yes Yes 15 feet Medium Medium None Yes Yes 3 feet Medium High None None None 20 feet Medium Low None Yes Yes 25 feet Medium Low None Yes Yes 25 feet High Low None Yes None 5 feet Medium High Yes Yes None 6 feet High Low None Yes None 3 feet Royal Palm Medium Sand Low None Medium High All Sabal Palm Medium Scrub Low Medium Medium High Like Sand Live Oak Low Sand High Medium None High All Sand Pine Low Sand Low None None High Like Sandweed Medium Sand High None None High Like Saw Palmetto Low Scrub Medium High None High All Scrub Hickory Low Scrub Medium None None Medium Like Sea Lavender Medium Sand High None None Medium Like Seagrape Medium Sand High High None High All Shiny Blueberry Low Sand High Medium None Low All Slash Pine Low Sand Low None None High Like Southern Dewberry Low Sand Low High None High Like Southern Magnolia Low Forest Medium Medium Medium High All Spanish Bayonet Medium Any Medium None None Medium All Spicewood Medium Sand Medium Medium Low High All St. John's Wort Medium Sand High None None High Like Staggerbush Low Scrub Low Medium Medium Medium All Stoppers Medium Sand Medium Medium Low High All Strangler Fig High Marsh High High None Medium All Strongbark Medium Mixed Medium Low Low High All Swamp Bay High Marsh Medium None None Medium Like Swamp Cyrilla High Swamp Medium None None High All 56 S Florida S Florida S Florida N Florida All Florida C Florida C Florida S Florida S Florida C Florida All Florida All Florida All Florida S Florida All Florida All Florida C Florida All Florida C Florida S Florida S Florida C Florida High Medium None Yes None 20 feet High High Yes Yes None 15 feet High Low Yes None None 5 feet High Low None None None 25 feet High Low None Yes None 4 feet Medium Medium None Yes None 10 feet High Low None Yes None 10 feet Medium Low None Yes None 6 feet High High None Yes Yes 25 feet Low High None Yes Yes 2 feet High Low None None None 75 feet High Low None Yes None 1 foot Medium Low None Yes None 60 feet High Low None Yes None 10 feet Medium Low None Yes Yes 20 feet High Low None None None 3 feet Medium Medium None None Yes 3 feet Medium Low None Yes Yes 20 feet Low Medium Yes None None 30 feet Medium Medium None Yes Yes 7 feet Medium Medium None None Yes 25 feet Medium Low None None None 30 feet Swamp Dogwood Low Swamp Medium Medium None High All Sweet Bay High Sand High Medium Medium Medium Like Sycamore High Sand High High Medium High All Tamarind Low Mixed High High None High All Tarflower Medium Scrub Medium None None Medium All Tawnyberry Medium Mixed High High None High All Torchwood Medium Mixed Medium None None High All Turkey Oak Medium Marsh Medium High None Medium Like Varnishleaf Medium Sand Medium None Medium Medium All Velvet Wild Coffee Medium Sand Medium Medium Medium Medium All Water Hickory Low Scrub Medium Medium None Medium Like Water Toothleaf High Swamp Low Medium None Low All Wax Myrtle Medium Sand Medium Medium None Medium All White Mangrove High Marsh High High None Medium Like Wild Coffee Medium Sand Medium Medium Medium Medium All Wild Lime Medium Scrub High High Medium High Like Willow Bustic Medium Sand High High None High All Winged Sumac Medium Sand Medium High Low Medium All 57 S Florida C Florida C Florida S Florida C Florida S Florida C Florida C Florida C Florida S Florida C Florida C Florida All Florida S Florida S Florida C Florida S Florida S Florida Medium High None Yes Yes 15 feet Medium High None None Yes 30 feet High Low None Yes None 60 feet Medium Medium None Yes None 40 feet High Low None Yes None 8 feet Medium Medium Yes Yes None 30 feet Medium High Yes None None 20 feet Medium High Yes None None 20 feet Low Medium None Yes None 10 feet Medium Medium None Yes None 5 feet High Low None Yes None 80 feet High Low None None None 4 feet Medium High None Yes Yes 20 feet Medium High None Yes None 20 feet Medium Medium None Yes None 5 feet High High None Yes Yes 15 feet Medium Low Yes Yes None 20 feet Medium High None Yes Yes 25 feet This suitability analysis determines which native South Florida trees and shrubs should be used in the airport carbon sink and which could offer the best carbon sequestration. The current arrangement of trees and shrubs was chosen for beautification purposes and includes some plants—like the sea-grape tree— which attract wildlife and may pose a threat of air strikes with birds and other animals inasmuch as these plants can be found along the median and near the air terminals—all within the vicinity of the northern runway. Granted that trees like the cypress are valuable to absorb water from torrential downpours in the summer, these trees are presently located in the lower basin near the active northern runway. They may grow excessively tall, and they do not maximize carbon sequestration as much as a plant with more foliage. Pictures of existing trees and shrubs taken near FLL in 2012 appear in Figures 5, 6, and 7. Figure 5: Berm along South Runway (9R/27L) 58 Figure 6: Sea-Grape in Airport Highway Median Figure 7: Sparse Cypress Trees near North Runway (9L/27R) 59 Plant Distribution Mapping According to Ormsby (2008; p. 538), Geographical Information Systems (GIS) can be defined as a “computerized system for the creation, management, query, analysis, and display of spatial data.” Through computer-aided visualization, analysis, and presentation of a spatial problem, it is sometimes easier to map a solution than to describe it in words. For the purpose of this study, GIS (specifically ArcMap Version 10) was utilized to map the airport region, the anticipated expansion of the southern runway (9R/27L), and the proposed distribution of plants around FLL. The trees and shrubs recommended by this report can be planted two to three feet away from each other in virtually any of the approved regions at FLL. These regions appear on the map in Chapter 5 and were measured using GIS to calculate a precise number of acres. The ratio of one acre to 43,560 square feet facilitated the approximation of how many trees and shrubs can then be planted in the airport vicinity. The total number of trees and shrubs was subsequently applied to a cost-benefit analysis and included the use of a fixed rate for CO2 conversion into dollars for each tree’s worth in the carbon sink. Figure 8 identifies key regions from the Broward County Land Use Plan dedicated to FLL and marked as “T” for transportation which can be used for 60 airport expansion projects including runway extension and a carbon sink. Not all areas will be used for the purpose of plant distribution, but the map in this figure shows where land is owned by BCAD and has been reserved by the County for any kind of future development including the strategic planting of native flora in important places that are away from the AOA and runway protection zones (RPZ) where tall trees and shrubs may interfere with aircraft landing and taking off. Figure 8: FLL in the Broward County Land Use Plan (2008) Source: Broward County, 2007 61 Cost-Benefit Analysis In order to determine the soundness of this project, cost benefit analysis (CBA) was performed using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet and numerical data. First developed by French engineer Jules Dupuit in 1848 and later improved by the U.S. government in 1936, CBA—or Benefit Cost Analysis as it is sometimes referred to—compares total costs of a project against total savings (San José State University, n.d.). These costs and benefits are expressed in dollars and cents and adjusted for the time value of money using a percentage rate known as an “internal rate of return” (Reh, n.d.). If benefits minus costs are positive, the project is deemed useful; if the comparison is negative, it means that the project is too costly to undertake. Moreover, CBA requires that special consideration be paid to valuation of human life. San José State University’s Department of Economics (n.d.) stresses the point of placing a dollar value on all aspects of human life. For instance, people who work in the oil fields or mining should receive higher pay in return for increased risks (San José State University, n.d.). This logic suggests that there must be a way to express the oxygen problem at FLL in terms of dollars and cents. GreenerChoices.org (2009) found that one acre produces enough oxygen each year for eighteen people to last a lifetime and that the expected conversion rate in dollars of any given tree or shrub equates to $8.47 per pound of oxygen 62 per year. This O2-production rate is amazing when one considers that according to Answers.com (n.d.), the typical leafy green plant can process as much as forty-eight pounds of CO2 per year. A critical factor in the GHG strategic mitigation plan’s viability is that CBA benefits must outweigh the costs of implementation. If the net effect yields more oxygen and fewer GHG, then these benefits can be calculated into dollars and cents and should exceed the overall costs of buying trees and shrubs, planting them, and then maintaining them through periodic landscaping. According to the BCAD Finance Director (James-Rendleman, August 29, 2011), the airport spent $237,123 in 2010 alone just to landscape the various parts of FLL. BCAD Finance Director Helena James-Rendleman said that maintenance costs in 2010 were less than usual that fiscal year, and that maintenance costs for 2011 and 2012 were expected to be even higher. In light of FLL’s operating budget constraints for landscaping needs, trees and shrubs were ranked more highly for their ability not to require frequent pruning and landscaping. Granted that FLL’s current beautification plan makes coming to the airport ever more appealing, the combination of these plants does not yield the same maximization of carbon sequestration as a combination of native plants with large green leaves and short, stocky height. While some plants may not be as colorful as the bright ixora, or as magnificent as the trees on the berms which must come 63 down for the southern runway expansion, it is still necessary to think practically about what economical trees and shrubs belong in FLL’s carbon sink. Bear in mind that Amsterdam planted solely relatively inexpensive birch trees side by side like an army of trees ready to attack the airport’s GHG. It is this same fiscal practicality with which FLL’s trees and shrubs must be selected. Therefore, the CBA includes the following data. Costs are divided into capital and operating expenditures. Initial capital expenditures of procuring trees and shrubs and planting them are expected to be considerably less than the cumulative annual operating costs of landscaping. Benefits are then computed with the GreenerChoices (2009) dollar formula and the number of trees per square footage of suitable FLL land cover calculated by GIS. Final analysis will be performed using net present value, which accounts for the internal rate of return on the investment using the U.S. prime lending rate in 2012. This budget does not take into consideration the cost of wildlife hazard mitigation which ranges from inexpensive treatments, such as chemical dispersants, to expensive devices, such as the mechanized bird cry of hawks used to scare away other animals (AirportWildlife.com, n.d.). Because the FAA (Pokryske, 2011) does not presently require FLL—or any other South Florida airport, for that matter—to conduct wildlife hazard management, this cost was omitted from the analysis. 64 Summary A suitability analysis of 103 possible trees and shrubs found natively in South Florida was performed to derive and rank those most suitable for use in a carbon sink around FLL. This analysis utilized fourteen categories including water, soil, foliage, pruning, fertilizing, sun exposure, proximity to other plants, climate, wind exposure, attractiveness to wildlife, berries, flowers, large fruits, and height. Each tree or shrub was then ranked and clustered based on the sum of weighted data. Results of the suitability analysis appear in the next chapter. Cost-benefit analysis was then performed by converting photosynthesis into dollars and cents and multiplying that rate by the recommended number of trees added to the ecosystem. The recommended number of trees was calculated by measuring the space for each tree or shrub—one plant with two to three square feet of space separating it from other plants in all directions—within the allowable regions at FLL determined through GIS. Cost-benefit analysis compared the benefits of reducing carbon emissions in dollars and cents to the costs of procuring, planting, and maintaining the recommended trees and shrubs. The findings of this analysis appear in the next chapter. 65 Chapter Five Analysis and Findings The focus of this analysis is on the viability of a carbon sink at FLL which utilizes native Florida species of trees and shrubs in selected regions around the airport that do not conflict with airport clearance restrictions, such as the AOA and the runway protection zones (RPZ). The analysis is divided into three sections—the suitability analysis of 103 native Florida trees and shrubs, the plant distribution mapping around the airport, and the cost-benefit analysis of financing the carbon sink. This analysis affirmatively answers the research question presented in the previous chapter, namely whether or not a carbon sink can safely and cheaply mitigate greenhouse gases at the Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport. Cost-benefit analyses using discount rates of one percent, two percent, and three percent underscore a total net present value of the carbon sink in the thousands of dollars, which implies that the project is viable. Plant distribution mapping indicates that there is plenty of land on which to plant the trees and shrubs recommended by the suitability analysis. 66 Suitability Analysis The list of 103 native Florida trees and shrubs was compiled using the codebook which appears in Chapter 4 and then processed according to the total summation of each row. Table 4 (logarithm) and Table 15 (no logarithm) in Appendix 2 shows the immediate ranking of all 103 trees and shrubs in Microsoft Excel format. It is important to note that the height variable in this table was not yet transformed by logarithm. Granted that certain suitable native Florida trees and shrubs—such as St. John’s Wort or Buttonwood—appear at the top of the recommended list as might be expected, many others could be outliers in the data. For instance, Coastal St. John’s Wort and Roundpod St. John’s Wort are not truly suitable for the soil-type near the airport. Nevertheless, because the structure of the weight system gives more consideration to height, Coastal St. John’s Wort and Roundpod St. John’s Wort rank higher than more suitable trees and shrubs such as the Acacia, Ficus, or Gumbo Limbo. To transform the data into something that is more useful for this suitability analysis, the logarithm of the height variable was taken to make the data “flatter,” or to make outliers like the height of Coastal St. John’s Wort less significant in comparison to the Buttonwood, which can mature at five feet, or to the Ficus, which can mature at ten feet. The unique feature of logarithmic transformation is that smaller and larger values become less pronounced. As an example, the 67 Coastal St. John’s Wort matures at three feet, which becomes .4771 at logarithm base 10. This way, there is less difference in terms of height between this shrub and the Ficus, which measures 1.000 at logarithm base 10. The Ficus would now be preferred over the Coastal St. John’s Wort since the Ficus possesses more desirable qualities, such as height, foliage, soil-type, and so forth. Table 5 shows the Microsoft Excel ranking of all 103 trees and shrubs with respect to the logarithmic transformation of the height variable—e.g., logarithm of three feet equals .4771 (base 10). The sums of each row are then recalculated and ranked according to most suitable (sums closest to zero) versus most undesirable (sums that are highest). There is a clear difference in the results from “with no logarithm” and “with logarithm.” For instance, the logarithmic approach yields more trees and shrubs that are common to South Florida like Buttonwood, Acacia, Ficus, Gumbo Limbo, Myrtle Oak, and Sandweed. Even though outliers such as Coastal St. John’s Wort still appear, this suitability analysis was designed to formulate a simple list of suggested native trees and shrubs for planting at FLL as part of a GHG strategic mitigation plan. 68 Table 4: Florida Trees and Shrubs (With Logarithm) Name Buttonwood St. John's Wort Acacia Water Soil Foliage Pruning Fertilize Sun Proximity Climate Wind Wildlife Berry Flower Fruit Height Sum 0 0 0 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.6990 1.1990 0.9 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.4771 2.1771 0 0 0.7 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.1761 2.3761 Florida Privet 0.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0.9031 2.8031 Ficus 0.9 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.0000 2.9000 Gumbo Limbo 0.9 0 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.3979 2.9979 Myrtle Oak 0.9 0 0 0 0 0.8 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 0.6990 3.1990 Sandweed 0.9 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 1 0 0.6021 3.3021 Reticulate Pawpaw 0.9 0.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0.6990 3.4990 Bigflower Pawpaw 0.9 0.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0.7782 3.5782 Pineland Acacia 0.9 0 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1.0000 3.6000 Beachcreeper 0.9 0 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0.7 0 0 1 0 0.4771 3.7771 Coastal St. J.-W. 0.9 0.9 0 0 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 1 0 0.4771 4.0771 Roundpod St. J.-W. 0.9 0.9 0 0 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 1 0 0.4771 4.0771 Graytwig/Whitewood 0.9 0 0 0.5 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 1 0 1.1761 4.3761 Spanish Bayonet 0.9 0 0.7 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1.0000 4.4000 Sand Live Oak 1.8 0 0 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.6 0 0 0.6990 4.5990 Chapman's Oak 1.8 0 0 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.6 0 0 1.0000 4.9000 Sea Lavender 0.9 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.8 0 0.7 0 0 1 0 0.7782 4.9782 Groundsel 1.8 0.9 0.7 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8451 5.0451 Lignum Vitae 0.9 0 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.6 1 0 1.1761 5.3761 0 0 0 1 0.8 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 1 0 1.7782 5.3782 Sycamore 69 Florida Rosemary 0 0.9 1.4 0 0 0 0 1.6 0 0.8 0 0 0 0.6990 5.3990 Swamp Cyrilla 0 1.8 0.7 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.7 0 0 0 0 1.4771 5.4771 Geiger Tree 0.9 0 0.7 0 0 0.8 0 0 0.7 0 0 1 0 1.3979 5.4979 Gray Nicker 0.9 0 0.7 0.5 0 0.8 0 0 0.7 0 0 1 0 1.0000 5.6000 Doctorbush 1.8 0 0.7 1 0 0 0 0 0.7 0 0 1 0 0.4771 5.6771 0 1.8 1.4 0 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.6990 5.6990 Slash Pine 1.8 0 1.4 0 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.8751 5.8751 Dwarf Live Oak 0.9 0.9 0 1 0 0 0.8 0 0 0.8 0 1 0 0.4771 5.8771 Lantana 0.9 0 0 1 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 1.6 1 0 0.6990 5.9990 Southern Dewberry 1.8 0 1.4 1 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 1 0 0.0000 6.0000 Tarflower 0.9 0.9 0.7 0 0 0.8 0 0.8 0 0 0 1 0 0.9031 6.0031 Fiddlewood 0.9 0 0.7 0 0 0.8 0 0 0.7 0.8 0 1 0 1.1761 6.0761 Royal Palm Bald Cypress 0.9 0 1.4 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 0.8 0 1 0 1.3010 6.2010 Paurotis Palm 0 0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0 0 0 0 0.8 1.6 1 0 1.3010 6.3010 Red Mangrove 0 0.9 0 1 0 0 0.8 0 0.7 1.6 0 0 0 1.3010 6.3010 Willow Bustic 0.9 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.7 0 1.6 1 0 1.3010 6.5010 Live Oak 0.9 0 0.7 1 0 0 0 0 1.4 0.8 0 0 0 1.7782 6.5782 Black Mangrove 0 0.9 0 1 0 0 0.8 0 0.7 1.6 0 0 0 1.6990 6.6990 Water Toothleaf 0 1.8 1.4 0.5 0 1.6 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 0.6021 6.7021 Firebush 0.9 0 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.6 0 1 1.6 1.0000 6.8000 Velvet Wild Coffee 0.9 0 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 0 0 0.7 0.8 0 1 0 0.6990 6.8990 Wild Coffee 0.9 0 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 0 0 0.7 0.8 0 1 0 0.6990 6.8990 Tamarind 1.8 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.7 0.8 0 1 0 1.6021 6.9021 Strongbark 0.9 0 0.7 0 0.4 0 0 0 0.7 0.8 0 1 1.6 0.8451 6.9451 0 1.8 0.7 0 0 0.8 0 0.8 0 0.8 0 1 0 1.0792 6.9792 1.8 0 1.4 0 0 0 0.8 1.6 0 0 0 0 0 1.3979 6.9979 Buttonbush Sand Pine 70 Spicewood 0.9 0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0 0 0 0.7 0 0 1 1.6 1.3010 7.1010 Stoppers 0.9 0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0 0 0 0.7 0 0 1 1.6 1.3010 7.1010 Indigo Bush 0.9 0.9 1.4 1 0 0.8 0 0 0.7 0 0 1 0 0.4771 7.1771 Laurel Oak 0 0 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 1.6 0 1 0 1.7782 7.1782 Coin Vine 0 1.8 0.7 0 0 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 0 1 1.6 0.6990 7.3990 Jamaica Caper 0 0.9 0 0.5 0 0 0 0 0.7 1.6 0 1 1.6 1.1761 7.4761 Tawnyberry 0.9 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.7 0.8 1.6 1 0 1.4771 7.4771 Seagrape 0.9 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1.6 0 1 1.6 1.3979 7.4979 Torchwood 0.9 0 0.7 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.7 1.6 1.6 0 0 1.3010 7.6010 0 0 0.7 0 0 0.8 0 0 0.7 1.6 1.6 1 0 1.3010 7.7010 Scrub Hickory 1.8 0.9 0.7 0 0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 1 0 1.0000 7.8000 Coastplain Willow 0.9 0.9 0.7 0 0 0.8 0 0 0.7 1.6 0 1 0 1.3979 7.9979 Elderberry White Mangrove 0 0.9 0 1 0 0.8 0.8 0 0.7 1.6 0 1 0 1.3010 8.1010 Deerberry 1.8 0 0.7 0 0 0.8 0 0.8 0 0.8 1.6 1 0 0.6990 8.1990 Varnishleaf 0.9 0 0.7 0 0.8 0.8 0 0.8 1.4 0.8 0 1 0 1.0000 8.2000 Rouge Plant 0 0 0 1 0.8 0.8 0 0 0.7 1.6 1.6 1 0 0.7782 8.2782 Red Maple 1.8 0 0 0.5 0 0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0 0 1 1.6 1.3979 8.5979 Inkberry 0.9 0.9 0 0.5 0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.6 0 1 0 0.6021 8.6021 Mahogany 1.8 0 0.7 0.5 0 0 0.8 0 0.7 0 0 1 1.6 1.5441 8.6441 0 0.9 0.7 0 0 0.8 0.8 0 0.7 0.8 0 1 1.6 1.3979 8.6979 1.8 0.9 0.7 1 0 0 0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0 1 0 1.0000 8.7000 0 0.9 0 1 0 0.8 0 0.8 1.4 0.8 1.6 0 0 1.4771 8.7771 Devil's Wlkg. Stick 0.9 0 0.7 1 0 0 0 0 0.7 1.6 1.6 1 0 1.3010 8.8010 Cherokee Bean 1.8 0 0 1 0.8 0 0 0 0 1.6 0 1 1.6 1.2041 9.0041 Swamp Bay Saw Palmetto Strangler Fig Sweet Bay Water Hickory 0 0 0 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.6 0 0 1.6 1.4771 9.0771 1.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 1 0 1.7782 9.0782 71 Southern Magnolia 1.8 1.8 0.7 0.5 0.8 0 0 0 0.7 0 0 1 0 1.7782 9.0782 Wax Myrtle 0.9 0 0.7 0.5 0 0.8 0 0 0.7 1.6 0 1 1.6 1.3010 9.1010 Beautyberry 1.8 0 1.4 1 0 0.8 0 0 0 0.8 1.6 1 0 0.7782 9.1782 Myrsine 0.9 0 0.7 0 0 0.8 0 1.6 0.7 0.8 1.6 1 0 1.3010 9.4010 Coco Plum 0.9 0.9 0 1 0 0 0 0.8 0.7 1.6 0 1 1.6 1.0000 9.5000 Ground Oak 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 0 0 0.7 1.6 0 1 1.6 0.0000 9.5000 Coconut Palm 0.9 0 1.4 1 0.8 0 0 0 0 1.6 0 1 1.6 1.3010 9.6010 Dahoon Holly 0 0.9 1.4 0.5 0 0 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.6 0 0 1.6 1.3979 9.6979 Lancewood 0.9 0 0.7 1 0 0.8 0.8 0 0.7 0.8 1.6 1 0 1.3979 9.6979 Poisonwood 1.8 0 0.7 1 0 0.8 0 0 0.7 0.8 1.6 1 0 1.3010 9.7010 Marlberry 1.8 0 0.7 0.5 0 0.8 0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0 1 1.6 1.0792 9.7792 American Elm 1.8 0 0 1 0 0 0.8 1.6 0.7 1.6 0 1 0 1.3010 9.8010 Pond Apple 0.9 0.9 1.4 0 0 0 0 0 1.4 1.6 0 1 1.6 1.1761 9.9761 Winged Sumac 0.9 0 0.7 1 0.4 0.8 0 0 0.7 1.6 0 1 1.6 1.3979 10.0979 Bitterwood 1.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0 0 0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0 1 1.6 1.3010 10.1010 Black Ironwood 0.9 0 0 1 0.4 0.8 0 0 1.4 1.6 1.6 1 0 1.4771 10.1771 Pigeon Plum 0.9 0 0.7 1 0.4 0.8 0 0 0.7 1.6 0 1 1.6 1.4771 10.1771 Wild Lime 0.9 0.9 0 1 0.8 0 0.8 0.8 0 1.6 0 1 1.6 1.1761 10.5761 Staggerbush 1.8 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0 0 1.6 0.4771 10.5771 Shiny Blueberry 1.8 0 0 0.5 0 1.6 0 0.8 1.4 1.6 0 1 1.6 0.3010 10.6010 Sabal Palm 0.9 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.8 0 0.8 0 0 1.6 1.6 1 0 1.1761 10.6761 Swamp Dogwood 1.8 1.8 0.7 0.5 0 0 0 0 0.7 1.6 0 1 1.6 1.1761 10.8761 Pineland Snowberry 1.8 1.8 0 0 0 0.8 0.8 1.6 0.7 0.8 1.6 0 0 1.0000 10.9000 Turkey Oak 0.9 0.9 0.7 1 0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.6 1.6 0 0 1.3010 11.1010 Loblolly Bay 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.6 0 1 0 1.6021 11.1021 Red Mulberry 1.8 0.9 0.7 0 0.8 0.8 0 1.6 0.7 0 0 1 1.6 1.3979 11.2979 72 Persimmon 1.8 1.8 0 1 0 0 0 0 1.4 1.6 0 1 1.6 1.6021 11.8021 Queensdelight 1.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.6 0.7 0.8 0 1 1.6 0.4771 12.4771 Jungle Plum 1.8 0 0.7 1 0 1.6 0 0.8 1.4 1.6 0 1 1.6 1.6021 13.1021 73 In order to determine the reliability of tree and shrub ranking, SPSS/PASW was implemented using “Analyze/Classify” and processing the tree and shrub data with Two Step, K-Means, and Hierarchical Clustering. Clustering involves the use of algorithms to analyze concepts like sub-space modeling (“two step clustering”)—which looks for patterns between group members and relevant attributes; centroidism (“k-means clustering”)—which looks for grouping data points through a single mean vector; and connectivity (“hierarchical clustering”)— which looks for distance between data points. The results of these three forms of analytical clustering include (1) no logarithmic transformation of the height variable (see Appendix 2 for findings), and (2) logarithmic transformation of the height variable (see Figure 9 and Tables 5 and 6). Analysis revealed that there was convergence with the numbers in the data with respect to height in both (1) no logarithm and (2) logarithm. This discovery of convergence should not be surprising inasmuch as the data is the same with only a logarithmic transformation effect on the one variable, namely height. These findings imply that the numbers are more or less in sequential order with very little variation between the ranking sums of each row. In other words, there was insufficient variation in the data to support clustering in any of the three tests: two-step, k-means, and hierarchical clustering. 74 Figure 9: Two-Step Clustering with Trees and Shrubs (Logarithm) Table 5: K-Means Clustering with Trees and Shrubs (Logarithm) Iteration Historya Change in Cluster Centers Iteration 1 2 1 3.995 3.749 2 .076 .085 3 .000 .000 a. Convergence achieved due to no or small change in cluster centers. The maximum absolute coordinate change for any center is .000. The current iteration is 3. The minimum distance between initial centers is 11.903. 75 Table 6: Hierarchical Clustering with Trees and Shrubs (Logarithm) Agglomeration Schedule Cluster Combined Stage Cluster 1 Stage Cluster First Appears Cluster 2 Coefficients Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Next Stage 1 49 50 .000 0 0 13 2 43 44 .000 0 0 35 3 13 14 .000 0 0 11 4 88 91 .013 0 0 17 5 9 10 .013 0 0 11 6 17 18 .181 0 0 70 7 37 40 .317 0 0 73 8 25 26 .419 0 0 12 9 11 12 .795 0 0 18 10 4 8 .980 0 0 22 11 9 13 1.002 5 3 22 12 25 34 1.086 8 0 32 13 46 49 1.122 0 1 51 14 65 67 1.153 0 0 80 15 83 84 1.459 0 0 28 16 3 6 1.496 0 0 21 17 76 88 1.506 0 4 29 18 11 16 1.536 9 0 27 19 85 89 1.603 0 0 53 20 38 55 1.624 0 0 54 21 3 5 1.757 16 0 34 22 4 9 1.897 10 11 27 23 15 19 1.901 0 0 44 24 27 32 1.952 0 0 61 25 42 56 2.135 0 0 38 26 96 101 2.269 0 0 94 27 4 11 2.291 22 18 44 28 77 83 2.306 0 15 43 29 76 81 2.313 17 0 48 30 24 28 2.358 0 0 68 31 61 66 2.440 0 0 42 32 25 33 2.487 12 0 46 76 33 59 74 2.489 0 0 65 34 2 3 2.602 0 21 39 35 35 43 2.720 0 2 46 36 21 36 2.731 0 0 45 37 58 64 2.736 0 0 66 38 42 54 2.874 25 0 51 39 2 7 2.877 34 0 59 40 39 45 2.926 0 0 73 41 79 92 2.959 0 0 63 42 60 61 2.989 0 31 67 43 71 77 3.040 0 28 58 44 4 15 3.079 27 23 76 45 21 31 3.095 36 0 54 46 25 35 3.304 32 35 64 47 41 47 3.324 0 0 79 48 72 76 3.585 0 29 57 49 69 75 3.729 0 0 65 50 62 78 3.747 0 0 74 51 42 46 3.752 38 13 84 52 100 102 3.768 0 0 91 53 85 93 3.807 19 0 72 54 21 38 3.864 45 20 81 55 82 87 3.957 0 0 77 56 29 48 4.049 0 0 93 57 72 80 4.053 48 0 63 58 71 90 4.056 43 0 74 59 1 2 4.094 0 39 76 60 53 68 4.116 0 0 84 61 27 30 4.191 24 0 71 62 95 98 4.346 0 0 69 63 72 79 4.407 57 41 72 64 25 51 4.409 46 0 71 65 59 69 4.459 33 49 80 66 57 58 4.526 0 37 78 67 60 63 4.653 42 0 75 68 23 24 4.711 0 30 79 69 95 99 4.862 62 0 88 70 17 20 4.883 6 0 89 77 71 25 27 4.942 64 61 81 72 72 85 5.085 63 53 77 73 37 39 5.312 7 40 86 74 62 71 5.493 50 58 90 75 52 60 5.524 0 67 83 76 1 4 5.569 59 44 89 77 72 82 5.652 72 55 82 78 57 70 5.837 66 0 83 79 23 41 6.074 68 47 97 80 59 65 6.311 65 14 92 81 21 25 6.592 54 71 85 82 72 73 6.672 77 0 87 83 52 57 6.834 75 78 90 84 42 53 6.913 51 60 95 85 21 22 7.070 81 0 86 86 21 37 7.225 85 73 93 87 72 94 7.476 82 0 94 88 95 97 7.548 69 0 98 89 1 17 7.853 76 70 100 90 52 62 8.213 83 74 96 91 100 103 8.241 52 0 101 92 59 86 8.382 80 0 96 93 21 29 8.702 86 56 95 94 72 96 8.735 87 26 98 95 21 42 9.484 93 84 97 96 52 59 9.867 90 92 99 97 21 23 10.311 95 79 100 98 72 95 11.153 94 88 99 99 52 72 11.895 96 98 101 100 1 21 15.789 89 97 102 101 52 100 18.546 99 91 102 102 1 52 29.672 100 101 0 78 Because these three statistical analyses did not produce clustered groups of data, the trees and shrubs cannot be readily grouped into “best suited,” “medium suited,” “poorly suited,” and so on. Therefore, the top twenty rankings were subjectively selected as an appropriate list of suitable trees and shrubs for planting at FLL. The top twenty recommended trees and shrubs (with logarithm applied) appear in Table 9 and retain their same ranking order as determined by the calculation of each row’s sum (closest to zero implies better suitability). It highlights fewer outliers, such as the Coastal St. John’s Wort. Moreover, the majority of these trees and shrubs include plants that are readily sold in nurseries across South Florida and should not produce problems for procurement when the strategic plan for creating a carbon sink at FLL is put into place. Lack of clustering could have occurred because of correlation factors among the variables. “Factor Analysis” in SPSS/PASW explained the variability among correlated variables in terms of uncorrelated variables, commonly referred to as factors. This model used extraction, principal components, and Varimax rotation using Kaiser normalization. Tables 7 and 8 show respectively how critical variables “Water” and “Sum” perform with (1) small coefficients and (2) small coefficients suppressed. Further analysis of these components revealed that (a) “Height” and “Pruning” and (b) “Fruit” and “Berry” had significant relevance to the overall study. 79 Table 7: Factor Analysis with Coefficients Communalities Initial Extraction Water 1.000 .902 Soil 1.000 .581 Foliage 1.000 .735 Pruning 1.000 .605 Fertilize 1.000 .420 Sun 1.000 .759 Proximity 1.000 .562 Climate 1.000 .644 Wind 1.000 .519 Wildlife 1.000 .717 Berry 1.000 .715 Flower 1.000 .595 Fruit 1.000 .686 Height 1.000 .687 Sum 1.000 .966 Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Component Matrixa Component 1 2 3 4 5 6 Water .200 .050 -.389 .413 .578 .452 Soil .132 .644 .216 -.225 .022 -.226 Foliage .102 .390 -.240 .120 -.532 .467 Pruning .453 -.516 .243 -.104 .251 .002 Fertilize .407 -.030 -.298 -.189 -.358 .004 Sun .387 .220 -.051 .539 -.251 -.451 -.043 .421 .308 -.235 .475 -.087 Climate .304 .618 .193 .324 .135 .092 Wind .685 -.118 .142 .091 .013 -.087 Wildlife .748 -.164 .219 -.194 -.125 -.168 Berry .068 -.392 .455 .580 -.087 .083 Proximity 80 Flower .310 -.306 -.581 .026 .147 -.212 Fruit .596 .116 -.383 -.394 .113 .049 Height .304 -.133 .432 -.303 -.163 .522 Sum .955 .160 .047 .108 .075 .095 Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. a. 6 components extracted. Rotated Component Matrixa Component 1 2 3 4 5 6 Water .030 -.035 .040 .030 .947 .027 Soil .071 .690 .193 .087 -.211 .103 Foliage -.037 .001 .071 .850 .063 -.041 Pruning .573 -.202 -.086 -.406 .075 -.241 Fertilize .342 -.222 .362 .317 -.138 .055 Sun .353 .089 -.177 .216 -.047 .739 -.063 .662 .089 -.300 .068 -.133 Climate .204 .611 -.156 .285 .294 .192 Wind .711 .009 -.034 -.021 .063 .091 Wildlife .812 .008 .103 -.048 -.209 -.031 Berry .237 -.215 -.778 -.045 .064 .032 Flower .224 -.432 .410 -.170 .244 .319 Fruit .451 .034 .666 .081 .167 -.056 Height .390 .037 -.134 .202 -.095 -.682 Sum .879 .213 .113 .206 .295 .081 Proximity Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization. a. Rotation converged in 9 iterations. 81 Table 8: Factor Analysis with Coefficients Suppressed Communalities Initial Extraction Water 1.000 .902 Soil 1.000 .581 Foliage 1.000 .735 Pruning 1.000 .605 Fertilize 1.000 .420 Sun 1.000 .759 Proximity 1.000 .562 Climate 1.000 .644 Wind 1.000 .519 Wildlife 1.000 .717 Berry 1.000 .715 Flower 1.000 .595 Fruit 1.000 .686 Height 1.000 .687 Sum 1.000 .966 Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Component Matrixa Component 1 2 Water .200 Soil .132 Foliage 3 4 5 6 -.389 .413 .644 .216 -.225 .102 .390 -.240 .120 -.532 Pruning .453 -.516 .243 -.104 .251 Fertilize .407 -.298 -.189 -.358 Sun .387 .539 -.251 Proximity .220 .308 -.235 .475 .324 .135 -.125 .304 .618 .193 Wind .685 -.118 .142 Wildlife .748 -.164 .219 -.194 -.392 .455 .580 82 .452 -.226 .421 Climate Berry .578 .467 -.451 -.168 Flower .310 -.306 -.581 .147 Fruit .596 .116 -.383 -.394 .113 Height .304 -.133 .432 -.303 -.163 Sum .955 .160 -.212 .522 .108 Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. a. 6 components extracted. Rotated Component Matrixa Component 1 2 3 4 5 Water 6 .947 Soil .690 .193 -.211 Foliage .103 .850 Pruning .573 -.202 Fertilize .342 -.222 Sun .353 Proximity -.406 .362 .317 -.177 .216 .739 -.300 -.133 .662 .611 Climate .204 Wind .711 Wildlife .812 -.156 .285 Berry .237 -.215 -.778 Flower .224 -.432 .410 Fruit .451 .666 Height .390 -.134 .202 Sum .879 .113 .206 .103 .213 -.241 -.138 .294 .192 -.209 -.170 .244 .319 .167 Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization. a. Rotation converged in 9 iterations. 83 -.682 .295 Table 9: Top Twenty Trees and Shrubs Ranking Name of Tree or Shrub 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9* 10* 11 12 13* 14* 15 16 17 18 19 20* Buttonwood St. John’s Wort Acacia Florida Privet Ficus Gumbo Limbo Myrtle Oak Sandweed Reticulate Pawpaw Bigflower Pawpaw Pineland Acacia Beachcreeper Coastal St. John’s Wort Roundpod St. John’s Wort Graytwig/Whitewood Spanish Bayonet Sand Live Oak Chapman’s Oak Sea Lavender Groundsel *Trees and shrubs ranked 9, 10, 13, 14, and 20 in this list do not match the preferred soil-type at FLL and are most likely outliers in the data. The trees and shrubs listed in the top ten are frequently planted in Broward County and should prove no problem for placement near the airport. Additional varieties on this list which are common to South Florida can be utilized as needs be. 84 Plant Distribution Mapping GIS was implemented to map the Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport and the outlying area that surround the AOA. Accordingly, the map which appears in Figure 10 was developed to show proximity of the areas owned by the airport in relation to neighboring communities such as Dania Beach and Fort Lauderdale. The North and South Runways were marked in gray in Figure 10 in order to highlight the extremely short distance of the runways to major thoroughfares such as Interstate 95 and Federal Highway, the latter of which serves the airport passenger terminal loop. The nearness of these runways to neighboring streets and vehicular traffic precludes the planting of trees and shrubs in some locations. More importantly, Figure 10 shows where trees and shrubs may be distributed in various locations around FLL. Granted that the AOA and all four RPZs are restricted because of FAR Part 77 (FAA, n.d.), suitable regions for planting trees and shrubs are limited to those areas marked in dark green along the periphery of the FLL vicinity. It should be noted that trees and shrubs may be planted around the eastern edge of the South Runway because of the proposed runway elevation and bridge over Federal Highway. Trees and shrubs are not expected to interfere with the operations of aircraft waiting at the holding bay, or taking off from and landing on the South Runway. 85 Figure 10: FLL Plant Distribution Areas Data Source: Broward County GIS Projection: NAD83 HARN State Plane Florida East FIPS 0901 Feet Map designed on 3-1-12 by John Bradford. FAU research only. 86 To compute the total acreage of land occupied by these suitable areas, GIS was utilized and yielded the aggregate result that appears in Table 10. The majority of the areas selected in the plant distribution map appear on the eastern side of the airport inasmuch as the western side consists of mostly hangars, office buildings, and parking lots which cannot be readily used for planting trees and shrubs. Moreover, the total land area which can be used for plant distribution amounts to 202.64 acres, the greatest part of which belongs to the region surrounding the eastern part of the South Runway (87.84 acres). The first column in Table 10 shows feature identification numbers (FID), where features refer to the segmented parts of airport land used in mapping the area around FLL. Table 10: Acreage for Suitable Areas FID Locator Number 22 31 33 Acres Description of Region 12.55 87.84 17.87 Leading into the airport passenger terminal loop Behind east holding bay for South Runway Southwest corner in Dania Beach where Griffin Road and Federal Highway intersect Near the out ramp headed south from the airport passenger terminal loop Behind the easternmost curve around Federal Hwy. which leads into the airport passenger terminal loop Parallel strip next to Interstate 95 Oval surrounding bio-retention pond Median between opposing lanes on Federal Highway 69 8.36 130 20.92 145 191 227 26.99 15.54 12.57 Total: 202.64 87 Cost-Benefit Analysis In order to compute the proper number of trees and shrubs, one must multiply the total number of acres calculated through plant distribution mapping by the average number of trees or shrubs allotted per acre. If one assumes tree bases will be roughly one foot in diameter, and if one allows an average of three feet between plants by pruning them well under five feet, the formula for arriving at the proper number of trees and shrubs, n, is the equation: 4n + 3, where 4n repeats every four feet skipping the 3 feet where no trees or shrubs would be planted. This equation allows for a border and assumes a perfect square. In other words, a shrub would be planted every four feet starting on the third foot ([4 x 0] + 3 = 3). Shrub #2 would be planted at the seventh foot ([4 x 1] + 3 = 7), shrub #3 would be planted at the eleventh foot ([4 x 2] + 3 = 11), and so on, leaving space between for the trees and shrubs to grow. Figure 11 shows how this planting works where “T” stands for a tree or shrub and “*” stands for a vacant foot of space. Figure 11: Spacing between Trees and Shrubs Tree: * * T * * * T * * _*_ _T_ * Feet: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 88 To calculate the total number of trees or shrubs needed per acre of land, one must multiply (4n + 3) rows by (4n + 3) columns—or (4n + 3)2—and then set this equation equal to the total number of square feet in an acre: 43,560 square feet. To arrive at the greatest possible number of trees and shrubs per acre while allowing for three feet between each tree or shrub, one sets both parts equal and solves for the number of trees and shrubs, n: (4n + 3)2 = 43,560 4n + 3 = 208.71 n = 51.43. In other words, roughly fifty trees or shrubs can be safely planted per acre of land by allowing for three feet of space between each tree or shrub multilaterally. By multiplying fifty trees or shrubs per acre by the total number of acres for plant distribution at FLL which appear in Table 10, one arrives at an approximate total of 10,725 trees and shrubs which would be needed for creating the carbon sink described in this report. Prices for trees and shrubs referenced in the top twenty recommended species from the suitability analysis in this chapter may vary depending upon the nursery and quantity of trees and shrubs procured. However, the supplier must comply with a Request for Letters of Intent from the Broward Commission—the government body in charge of FLL—and may offer a 89 suitable arrangement which satisfies the requirements for both the 10,725 trees and shrubs and an acceptable price for each. For the purpose of completing this cost-benefit analysis, the average price assigned to the 10,725 trees and shrubs was ten dollars a plant, which was factored into the start-up capital costs of creating the carbon sink. The operating costs—namely, the maintenance of the trees and shrubs— are expected to be cut in half by virtue of having plants like the Buttonwood that do not grow nearly as fast as the Sea-Grape, which can be found presently all over the medians of Federal Highway near the airport passenger terminal loop. Granted that earlier expenditures have already been paid for, future operating costs in the way of tree and shrub maintenance will be recalculated somewhat subjectively as $75,000, which is a fraction of the cost of what was paid for by BCAD in 2010 (see Chapter 4). By using trees and shrubs that require less pruning like the Buttonwood or Ficus, landscaping and maintenance costs should amount to a figure less than $100,000 a year. It is noted herein that landscaping was provided in 2012 by Prestige Property Maintenance, Inc. with a renewable contract for two one-year periods for an estimated amount of $1,152,192 and an irrigation repair parts allowance in 2012 for $10,000. The benefit of the carbon sink was calculated by multiplying the 10,725 trees and shrubs by the $8.47 per tree CO2–to-O2 conversion figure developed 90 by GreenerChoices (2009). Therefore, the total intangible benefit of the carbon sink amounts to $90,840.75. This dollar figure represents the value of carbon sequestration in order to increase the amount of oxygen at FLL. Tangible benefits, such as stormwater and runoff mitigation, are difficult to calculate and hard to measure. Even though tangible benefits were not included in this analysis, it is important to mention that they exist. The net benefit of creating the carbon sink appears in the cost-benefit analysis shown in the following Microsoft Excel spreadsheets using a discount rate sensitivity of one percent, two percent, and three percent. The net present value of the project for each discount rate appears in the tables that follow. According to these results, it is possible to determine that benefits outweigh the costs, which underscores the viability of the carbon sink. 91 Table 11: Cost-Benefit Analysis (Discount at 1%) Year 2012 Capital Costs 107.250 Operating Costs* Total Costs Total Benefits Net Benefits** Factor*** Period NPV 0.000 107.250 0 -107.250 0.990 1 -106.188 2013 75.000 75.000 90.841 15.841 0.980 2 15.529 2014 75.750 75.750 90.841 15.091 0.971 3 14.647 2015 76.508 76.508 90.841 14.334 0.961 4 13.774 2016 77.273 77.273 90.841 13.568 0.951 5 12.910 2017 78.045 78.045 90.841 12.796 0.942 6 12.054 2018 78.826 78.826 90.841 12.015 0.933 7 11.207 2019 79.614 79.614 90.841 11.227 0.923 8 10.368 2020 80.410 80.410 90.841 10.431 0.914 9 9.537 2021 81.214 81.214 90.841 9.627 0.905 10 8.715 2022 82.026 82.026 90.841 8.815 0.896 11 7.901 2023 82.847 82.847 90.841 7.994 0.887 12 7.095 2024 83.675 83.675 90.841 7.166 0.879 13 6.296 2025 84.512 84.512 90.841 6.329 0.870 14 5.506 2026 85.357 85.357 90.841 5.484 0.861 15 4.724 2027 86.211 86.211 90.841 4.630 0.853 16 3.949 2028 87.073 87.073 90.841 3.768 0.844 17 3.182 2029 87.943 87.943 90.841 2.898 0.836 18 2.422 2030 88.823 88.823 90.841 2.018 0.828 19 1.671 2031 89.711 89.711 90.841 1.130 0.820 20 0.926 2032 90.608 90.608 90.841 0.233 0.811 21 0.189 Total NPV: * Recurrent (operating) costs stabilize by 2013, growing at a constant rate of 3% thereafter **Net benefits reflect total benefits minus total costs ***Discount rate of 1% All amounts appear in thousands of dollars. 92 46.413 Table 12: Cost Benefit Analysis (Discount at 2%) Capital Costs Operating Costs* Total Costs Total Benefits 107.250 0.000 107.250 0 -107.250 0.980 1 -105.147 2013 75.000 75.000 90.841 15.841 0.961 2 15.226 2014 75.750 75.750 90.841 15.091 0.942 3 14.221 2015 76.508 76.508 90.841 14.334 0.924 4 13.242 2016 77.273 77.273 90.841 13.568 0.906 5 12.289 2017 78.045 78.045 90.841 12.796 0.888 6 11.362 2018 78.826 78.826 90.841 12.015 0.871 7 10.460 2019 79.614 79.614 90.841 11.227 0.853 8 9.582 2020 80.410 80.410 90.841 10.431 0.837 9 8.728 2021 81.214 81.214 90.841 9.627 0.820 10 7.897 2022 82.026 82.026 90.841 8.815 0.804 11 7.089 2023 82.847 82.847 90.841 7.994 0.788 12 6.303 2024 83.675 83.675 90.841 7.166 0.773 13 5.539 2025 84.512 84.512 90.841 6.329 0.758 14 4.797 2026 85.357 85.357 90.841 5.484 0.743 15 4.075 2027 86.211 86.211 90.841 4.630 0.728 16 3.373 2028 87.073 87.073 90.841 3.768 0.714 17 2.691 2029 87.943 87.943 90.841 2.898 0.700 18 2.029 2030 88.823 88.823 90.841 2.018 0.686 19 1.385 2031 89.711 89.711 90.841 1.130 0.673 20 0.760 2032 90.608 90.608 90.841 0.233 0.660 21 0.154 Year 2012 Net Benefits** Factor*** Period NPV Total NPV: * Recurrent (operating) costs stabilize by 2013, growing at a constant rate of 3% thereafter **Net benefits reflect total benefits minus total costs ***Discount rate of 2% All amounts appear in thousands of dollars. 93 36.056 Table 13: Cost-Benefit Analysis (Discount at 3%) Year 2012 Capital Costs 107.250 Operating Costs* Total Costs Total Benefits Net Benefits** Factor*** Period NPV 0.000 107.250 0 -107.250 0.971 1 -104.126 2013 75.000 75.000 90.841 15.841 0.943 2 14.932 2014 75.750 75.750 90.841 15.091 0.915 3 13.810 2015 76.508 76.508 90.841 14.334 0.888 4 12.735 2016 77.273 77.273 90.841 13.568 0.863 5 11.704 2017 78.045 78.045 90.841 12.796 0.837 6 10.716 2018 78.826 78.826 90.841 12.015 0.813 7 9.769 2019 79.614 79.614 90.841 11.227 0.789 8 8.863 2020 80.410 80.410 90.841 10.431 0.766 9 7.994 2021 81.214 81.214 90.841 9.627 0.744 10 7.163 2022 82.026 82.026 90.841 8.815 0.722 11 6.368 2023 82.847 82.847 90.841 7.994 0.701 12 5.607 2024 83.675 83.675 90.841 7.166 0.681 13 4.880 2025 84.512 84.512 90.841 6.329 0.661 14 4.184 2026 85.357 85.357 90.841 5.484 0.642 15 3.520 2027 86.211 86.211 90.841 4.630 0.623 16 2.886 2028 87.073 87.073 90.841 3.768 0.605 17 2.280 2029 87.943 87.943 90.841 2.898 0.587 18 1.702 2030 88.823 88.823 90.841 2.018 0.570 19 1.151 2031 89.711 89.711 90.841 1.130 0.554 20 0.626 2032 90.608 90.608 90.841 0.233 0.538 21 0.125 Total NPV: * Recurrent (operating) costs stabilize by 2013, growing at a constant rate of 3% thereafter **Net benefits reflect total benefits minus total costs ***Discount rate of 3% All amounts appear in thousands of dollars. 94 26.889 Summary The total net present value shown in each of the three preceding spreadsheets indicates the viability of the carbon sink at FLL. The discount rate associated with each net present value—one percent, two percent, and three percent—reflects the going rate available at most banks and is tied to the prime lending rate of the United States Treasury. With most figures constant and the operating costs adjusted for inflation over a period of twenty years, the net present value of each component is reflected by the product of net benefits times the discount rate factor (1 divided by [1 plus the discount rate], quantity raised to the power of the particular period). Because the $8.47 CO2-to-O2 formula does not change for inflation, the total benefits of the carbon sink were calculated as $90,841 per year and remain fixed throughout the spreadsheets. It is important to note that in the first year, trees and shrubs must be planted and will not yield a return on the investment until the next full year in which the trees and shrubs begin carbon sequestration. Costs associated with the planting of trees and shrubs will be covered by existing services provided by the County contractor, Prestige Property Maintenance, Inc. New contracts may be drawn for affordable landscaping near the $75,000 mark. This figure was adjusted for inflation with a three percent consumer price index each year over this study’s twenty-year period. 95 Chapter Six A GHG Strategic Mitigation Plan for FLL The recommended plan type for FLL’s GHG mitigation plan is the strategic plan. This plan was chosen primarily for its brevity and preciseness in carrying out a simple project within a fixed amount of time. Donnelly (1984; p.1) believes that strategic plans close “the gap between the annual business plan and the traditional long-range plan.” Bryson (1995) would concur with Donnelly and add that strategic plans clarify organizational mandates and missions so that complex tasks are simplified into easy to adopt strategies. These aspects of a strategic plan are uniquely well-suited for the proposed implementation of trees and shrubs around FLL as a viable carbon sink. Plan Formulation Design of the strategic plan requires a process by which to formulate and adopt strategies towards managing key issues. Bryson (1995; p.155) stresses the need to establish a vision for the project. Camillus (1986) underlines the need for a framework of planning versus control. In other words, planners must have a visionary idea that does not dictate all details in the plan, like the precise choice of plants in the carbon sink, the exact costs specified in the Request for Letters of 96 Interest, and so forth. Camillus argues that a strategic plan should focus on the process, linkages, administrative duties, timing, and output as they pertain to the project. These ideas would preclude the mundane measuring of inches separating trees and shrubs from becoming the focus of the carbon sink strategic plan and would emphasize the overall goals of the project with respect to a measurable action plan (Fogg, 1999; p.93). To organize the strategic plan, certain rules must be followed. Bryson (1995) stresses the basics: who are the leaders, who are the benefactors, and what goals do they all have in common. With respect to this paradigm, the FLL GHG strategic mitigation plan would note that the Broward Commission and the airport planners at BCAD are the leaders in this case, and the benefactors would be the employees and passengers at the airport, not to mention the residents in neighboring communities like Melaleuca Gardens. These parties share the common goal of reducing carbon emissions at the airport and increasing the flow of oxygen around the airport in order to stave off oxidative stress and related health problems attributed to GHG. To address the mission, additional goals arise in the form of creating a carbon sink at FLL comprised of suitable native Florida trees and shrubs to be planted in recommended areas within the airport region. 97 Mission Statement Given the people, one must determine a shared vision, or mission statement, that will galvanize support for the strategic plan. Bryson (1995; p.155) would make the goal of the leaders and benefactors as clear as possible. Many ideas may arise from the carbon sink project, but the central goal remains the same: “To mitigate greenhouse gases at the Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport through the creation of a carbon sink comprised of native Florida trees and shrubs which will sequester the carbon in the air and increase the flow of oxygen around the airport region.” Additional benefits can be included in this mission statement, such as “reduction of oxidative stress,” “improvement of the air quality,” and “decreasing health risks associated with GHG and related toxins in the air.” The formal strategic plan which appears later on in this chapter carefully presents the vision for this strategic plan. Developing a Budget Prioritization of goals leads to budgetary concerns. Donnelly (1984) asks of each strategic plan—is it fiscally feasible? What is the budget for this project, and where will the money come from? To answer these questions, one must refer to the cost-benefit analyses presented in Chapter 5. The capital cost will be 98 somewhat expensive—approximately $107,250 to be spent on a one-time cash outlay for the procurement of the recommended trees and shrubs. Operational costs will be a fraction of present-day maintenance costs for services around the airport region. The benefits reflect a social value and therefore, have no physical cash equivalent for use in the strategic plan. Nevertheless, the vision for this strategic plan clearly retains the creation of a carbon sink as the critical goal in this project regardless of cost, and the net benefit of mitigating GHG is seen as a positive, not a minus in this process. Plan Effectiveness The strategic plan must take on structure to achieve the effectiveness of the overall project. Camillus (1986; p.107) cites the following components of an effective strategic plan: input (such as the cost of trees and shrubs and maintenance), workload (maintenance and physical labor), output (more oxygen and less GHG), effectiveness (distribution of oxygen around the airport), and efficiency (quantity of air per jet redeemed). Of all the Camilllus’ components, the one problematic standard is efficiency, for it is difficult to measure gases that are emitted from a jet engine. One solution might be to procure gas-measuring devices and place them strategically around the airport. However, this prospect might be too costly and could defeat the purpose of creating a safe and cheap 99 manner by which to mitigate GHG. Another option might be to follow the Greek example (Moussiopoulos, 1997) and study GHG using geographical information systems (GIS). However, one must first measure the gases in the air, which would necessitate the procurement of a gas-measuring device similar to what the Dutch are using in Amsterdam (Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, 2010). For the purpose of this plan, it is recommended that the viability and survival rate of each tree and shrub count towards the efficiency of the project in place of the actual measurement of oxygen and GHG around FLL. If all trees and shrubs manage to survive after planting, it could be said that the carbon sink succeeded in mitigating GHG by virtue of the plants using CO2 for photosynthesis, resulting in carbon sequestration into the ground. If over fifty percent of the trees and shrubs die after planting, one might say the carbon sink was a failure. Plan Components These concerns translate into principal components of the strategic plan. Camillus (1986; p.214) emphasizes that in a strategic plan, there exists the need to “define the problem, evaluate the problem, transmit information, decide upon an action, and monitor progress.” This process leads to what Bryson (1995; p.166) identifies as “strategy implementation.” The problem herein is GHG. The solution is a carbon sink. The problem is then compounded by the question how. 100 Information is gathered on the terrain and potential locations for suitable trees and shrubs, which leads to the next question, what. Planners and contracted maintenance employees will decide what kind of bush or tree to plant. Ultimately, progress would be measured over time to see if any plants or trees die, or if there are any unforeseen changes in the airport region that might prove detrimental to the integrity of the carbon sink strategic plan. Bryson’s proposal is useful in providing structure for the strategic plan, but there is one element that is missing from his rubric. Fogg (1999) believes that the key is to involve all people associated with the project. This prospect would entail enlisting committees of airport and airline employees, contract workers, and neighboring residents who might be affected by the noise or GHG directly. Additionally, participants could include new-hired people and even old staff to facilitate implementation of this strategic plan. Fogg (1999; p.234) also stresses the point of using teams wherever possible and to know the culture of the staff before embarking upon a new plan that has never been tested. Communication in a plan of this type is the key to its overall success. People must see the reason behind the work before they will endorse the project. Moreover, Fogg (1999; p.366) argues that there must be performance review and reward for a job well done. This idea means that someone like an airport planner must check on the status of the plan at all times. Additionally, Donnelly (1984; 101 p.107) warns against “marrying” compensation with planning. To award workers with cash all the time can lead to misinformation from the workers who may consistently pursue the money instead of good work (Donnelly, 1984; p.107). Finally, there must be a backup plan in case communication reports that the project has failed (Donnelly, 1984; p.86). If maintenance workers report that trees and shrubs are dying, an airport planner must study the situation and consider other alternatives. One may have to resort to simple landscaping with suitable grass or some other aspect of beautification for the airport region, or else leave the region bare. The integrity of the actors in a strategic plan is critical to the functioning of the project. Camillus (1986) underlines the need to set responsibility standards for all actors. For instance, in the case of the airport planner who discovers that the plan is failing because the trees and shrubs are dying, what are his or her prerogatives, and how must he or she act as a public servant? The airport planner must communicate with his superiors, with the Broward Commission, and the general public. It is of paramount importance that public servants keep lines of communication open with the general public, and it is for this reason that committees be formed with residents of Dania Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Hollywood in order to facilitate the planting of suitable trees or shrubs. Residents may have additional recommendations and may suggest inclusion of additional parcels of land for plant distribution. They may even vote in their local 102 commissions to enforce laws to maintain the integrity of the carbon sink which prohibit chopping down a tree or removing a shrub. Future Growth One final recommendation for this strategic plan is to anticipate future growth. If the carbon sink is a success, what should come next? A committee might be needed to discuss available options which can include the purchase of a GHG-monitoring device similar to what is used at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport, or which could require acquisition of other land parcels within the airport vicinity so that the carbon sink can be expanded. This committee would work with the airport planners to review the following strategic plan agenda items taken from Donnelly (1984; pp.62-3): overview, opportunities, marketing, strategies, assets, and organization. From reviewing these items, the entire carbon sink team can prioritize improved actions in the future and further the process of reducing GHG beyond the scope of merely planting trees and shrubs on a few hundred acres at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport. For instance, are roof top gardens the next best option, or should the airport pursue electric engine ramp vehicles and the like to reduce further the GHG at FLL? 103 “Vision of Success” The hardest part of developing a strategic plan is developing a sound “vision of success.” Bryson (1995; pp.161-164) identifies ten pointers with regard to developing visions for strategic plans and includes the following caveats in writing them. Table 14 shows how the FLL GHG strategic mitigation plan corresponds to Bryson’s ideas. Based on these observations and in compliance with the directions given by Bryson (1995), the strategic plan for the “FLL Carbon Sink” was formulated using a list of initiatives, goals, and related ideas that appear in Figure 12. Critical to the implementation of the plan, the collaboration of BCAD employees, airline and related business employees, and neighboring residents was accentuated to ensure that everyone should have a voice in deciding how GHG were mitigated much to his or her approval thereof. Without proper input from all participants, this plan would miss the point of trying to benefit human life and the environment through GHG mitigation. The principal goal of this plan is to protect the health and welfare of the whole community—airport employees, airport passengers, and even nearby residents of places like Melaleuca Gardens. 104 Table 14: Comparing the Plan with Bryson’s (1995) Ten Pointers 1 Bryson Remember that usually a vision of success is not to improve the organization per se 2 Wait until one or more cycles of strategic planning before trying to develop a vision of success 3 Include outcomes and benefits early in the vision of success rather than waiting for the end to discuss them Develop the vision of success out of past decisions and actions as much as possible 4 5 Make your vision of success inspirational 6 Enhance the vision statement with the proper degree of tension to encourage effective change in the organization Have planning team members prepare a draft of the vision of success individually and then collaborate on the final product 7 8 Review the vision statement with a normative process 9 Reach consensus on the vision of success with all key decision makers Disseminate the vision statement to as many actors as possible 10 105 GHG Strategic Mitigation Plan The carbon sink is not designed to improve BCAD or the operations at FLL; the goal is to reduce GHG at the airport and make the air less toxic to the environment The airport has known about the GHG problem since writing the EIS back in 2008; the time is now to employ some method by which to reduce GHG before the situation gets any worse Fewer carbon emissions into the air will definitely benefit human life and improve the ecosystem BCAD has tried to address this problem before in the EIS (2008), and the greatest attempt to remedy the situation was a beautification project with mixed native and non-native plants located along the entranceway to the airport passenger terminal loop There is nothing greater than embracing the environment and making it better Employees at FLL must breathe airport air; to ignore the situation with GHG leads to continued health risks from oxidative stress This vision of success has been developed by the student and professors at Florida Atlantic University and may be revised at any point by FLL personnel The plan can be reviewed normatively within one to five years as the trees and shrubs grow It is anticipated that the Broward Commission will endorse this plan and fund the project This plan should be made available to all people including the general public and the private sector that conduct business with FLL Figure 12: FORT LAUDERDALE-HOLLYWOOD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT GREENHOUSE GAS STRATEGIC MITIGATION PLAN VISION OF SUCCESS Future Projecting current environmental trends, a student at Florida Atlantic University (FAU) developed this vision of what the Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL) might look like in the year 2014: Services • Inappropriate non-native plants which do not reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) sufficiently enough will be removed from airport vicinity. • Native Florida trees and shrubs including Buttonwood, Acacia, and Ficus will be planted to replace non-native plants. • Animals will not be tempted to congregate near trees and shrubs, thereby reducing the threat of airstrikes. • Visitors to and employees of the airport will enjoy seeing native Florida species of plants. • Within one year after having planted the new trees and shrubs, FLL employees and airport passengers will breathe fewer toxins in the air. • Fewer lung and heart complications will result in fewer visits to regional hospitals. • FLL will broaden the scope of airport/community relationships with Dania Beach and Fort Lauderdale by including residents and city leaders in plan implementation. • Plan implementation will be accompanied by widespread advertisement and public notice to encourage businesses and the general public in Broward County, Florida to come to the airport. • FLL will become a world model for airport GHG mitigation. Technology • • • • • Airport planners will use computers to map specific regions with recommended native Florida trees and shrubs. Bulldozers and construction equipment will remove non-native plants from the airport vicinity. Recommended native Florida trees and shrubs will be planted using construction equipment. Irrigation systems will be employed to water all trees and shrubs as needed. Trees and shrubs will be maintained by service crews as needed. Personnel • Greater emphasis will be placed on the staff's need for continuing education on airport environmental issues. • Same airport personnel will keep their jobs. Facilities • • • • Airport land will be used for planting trees and shrubs in order to mitigate GHG at FLL. Fenced-in airport regions will be the temporary storage center for construction equipment. Non-native plants will be moved to landfill along with the removal of the berms by the South Runway. All native Florida trees and shrubs will be planted by 2014 . Community Demographics • There will continue to be a diverse population working at, visiting, and using FLL. • There will be more people of color and more people of all ages using the airport. Community Input • The airport will actively seek and effectively use input from airport business groups and the community in planning and evaluating the airport’s GHG mitigation project. Such efforts will hopefully raise the community's awareness of the airport’s goal of being a better neighbor and will produce advocates for its support. Funding • FLL and the Federal Aviation Administration will play a major role in funding this project. 106 Chapter Seven Conclusions and Recommendations The Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport is a busy metropolitan airport located in South Florida which serves tens of millions of passengers each year. This activity creates large quantities of GHG that emit from aircraft taking off and landing. Accumulation of GHG has raised concern that health problems could arise from excessive exposure to carbon emissions and PM. ICAO, IMO, and the Kyoto Protocol concur that it is of paramount importance that airports like FLL take an active stance towards mitigating GHG and improving airport air quality. The purpose of this report was to test the hypothesis whether or not a carbon sink can safely and cheaply mitigate greenhouse gases at FLL through the planting of native Florida trees and shrubs at various locations around the airport. The findings of this report suggest that a GHG strategic mitigation plan can be implemented. Moreover, the literature review confirmed that this project should work in the same way that other airports such as Amsterdam Schiphol Airport in the Netherlands have managed to reduce carbon emissions through carbon sinks built strategically around the airport. Based on the European model, the FLL carbon sink was designed to replace non-native and sometimes invasive flora presently used for beautification purposes with native Florida trees and 107 shrubs that would work best in the ecosystem. FLL had tried to address GHG once before in their EIS; however, the result accomplished very little aside from airport beautification (FLL, 2008). Discussion The Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood region sandwiches FLL and forces residents to think carefully about the air they are breathing. It is not just the airport employees who breathe in GHG; visitors to the airport and people who live nearby may be breathing in toxic gases as well. The argument debated by the research question posed in this report is not whether the airport and the community should do something about the buildup of GHG at FLL. The question is how. For that reason, it was recommended in this report that a carbon sink be constructed strategically around the airport using the following criteria found in this report’s suitability analysis: 1. Plants should thrive well in South Florida weather. 2. Plants should be accustomed to South Florida soil. 3. Plants should have ample foliage to absorb carbon. 4. Plants should require very little pruning. 5. Plants should need very little fertilizing, if at all. 108 6. Plants can stand strong sun exposure. 7. Plants should not require living near same species only. 8. Plants should withstand harsh South Florida climate. 9. Plants should stand up to harsh winds (sometimes gales). 10. Plants do not attract wildlife for nesting, fruit-eating, etc. 11. Plants do not produce berries nor seed pods. 12. Plants do not generate flowers. 13. Plants do not create fruit that attract birds and other animals. 14. Plants are neither too short nor too tall. This suitability analysis yielded a list of the top twenty ranking native South Florida trees and shrubs. Many of the species on the list were trees. However, there is enough of a variety on the list to select any kind of plant that would be ideally suited for various locations cited in plant distribution mapping. A total of roughly two hundred acres around the edges of the AOA were identified for the purpose of planting any of the trees and shrubs mentioned on the suitability list. Airport planners should have sufficient leeway in deciding exactly which tree or shrub should go where within the specific regions identified by plant distribution mapping through GIS. Cost-benefit analysis of GHG mitigation at FLL revealed that the project is in fact feasible and yields a positive net present value for construction of the 109 airport carbon sink. At a discount rate of one percent for the CBA, the NPV was approximately $46,000. At two percent, the NPV was approximately $36,000. And finally at three percent, the NPV was $26,000. This information underscores the viability of the project regardless of the internal rate of return and reflects the social benefit of reducing GHG and improving the circulation of oxygen at FLL. Moreover, the CBA suggests that a carbon sink would prove useful in airport planning as a way to beautify safely and improve air quality cheaply. Granted that it would be advantageous to monitor the airport air quality using devices which Amsterdam Schiphol Airport presently uses, the current system of watching plants closely to see whether trees or shrubs thrive once planted may prove just as useful in determining the overall success of this plan. This plan to create a carbon sink with thousands of native trees and shrubs is a gigantic undertaking. However, with this plan realized over time, benefits are expected to outweigh the costs through the social return on this investment. Airport employees will breathe more easily, and so will residents in neighborhoods such as Melaleuca Gardens, which is located right next-door to the soon-to-be-expanded South Runway. If one could put a price on oxygen, would one be willing to pay $8.47 a tree to ensure that one does not breathe in PM and toxic jet fumes? That formula was used in this report, and granted that many people would place a value on oxygen at a much higher standard, it is only 110 fair to say that trees are a vital resource on this planet, and the more one can plant near places like FLL, the better life is for everyone. Airport planners must not forget the importance of the environment when studying passenger miles and calculating space for new jet arrivals. Without optimal air quality—passengers, employees, and nearby residents may suffer in terms of health and well-being. Planners must study the airport environment and determine whether or not there is too much tarmac and not enough foliage. Even if one area is appropriated for use as AOA at FLL, there must be an area elsewhere that can still be used as a part of the carbon sink. Failure to respect the environment is to invite disaster: bird strikes by aircraft landing and taking off, greater dispersion of GHG in the outlying regions, and increase in health problems associated with the inhalation of carbon emissions, nitrogen oxides, and various PM. Planners must act appropriately and accordingly. Recommendations It is recommended that this strategic plan, or “vision of success,” be implemented as soon as possible in order to reap the benefits of a viable carbon sink at FLL. This plan will successfully mitigate GHG from principal sources of carbon emissions including aircraft engines and ramp vehicle exhaust. GHG 111 mitigation is important for the future of FLL and its neighboring communities, and it relies upon the planting of new trees and shrubs that are properly suited for the airport ecosystem. By implementing this plan, airport planners can successfully and masterfully reduce carbon emissions, increase oxygen distribution, and promote better health of airport employees and visitors, not to mention improve on air quality for nearby residents in neighborhoods like Melaleuca Gardens. The recommendations contained herein are designed to benefit people and wildlife that thrive in the airport’s ecosystem. Without addressing the needs of the ecosystem first, one may make mistakes—such as planting trees that grow too tall or require too much water and pruning. The needs of the FLL ecosystem have been discussed and stressed throughout this report, and the recommendations to plant a certain variety come with a caveat that if the airport plants solely for beautification purposes, the benefits of a carbon sink may be reduced considerably. It is for this reason that airport planners at FLL should try to attain a balance of trees and shrubs as they select individual plants for the regions chosen for planting around the airport. Ideally, all areas at FLL should be available for planting trees and shrubs. However, it is known that trees and shrubs cannot be planted in locations such as the AOA or RPZs, and therefore the fenced off areas protecting these regions were not included in the analysis. Instead, areas which are presently used, such 112 as the median separating lanes of travel along Federal Highway, or those regions which should become available, such as the back lot behind the eastern edge of the South Runway, were recommended for plant distribution and included in the airport mapping. Besides the airport carbon sink, there are other opportunities that are available which are highly recommended for the future. For instance, roof top gardens, or “green roofs,” can be built to some degree on the roofs of airport terminals. These roof top gardens may reduce the heat absorbed by the terminal roofs and increase the amount of oxygen distributed at the airport. However, a caveat exists towards erecting tall trees or shrubs with shallow root systems, for these plants become projectiles—sometimes deadly—whenever hurricane winds or strong thunderstorms visit the region. Therefore, appropriate trees and shrubs are recommended for roof top gardens at FLL, and a separate study may be required to identify those plants ideally suited for this purpose. It is also recommended that more electric-battery type vehicles be employed at the airport. This list includes ramp vehicles, taxi limousines, and even those public buses that visit the airport passenger traffic loop. Presently, the airport accumulates considerable amounts of exhaust from these vehicles both airside and landside. Therefore, it is recommended that a CBA be conducted to determine the cost-worthiness of buying new vehicles and reducing GHG at the 113 airport. The model used for airplane exhaust in this study used a carbon sink comprised of trees and shrubs. It may be necessary to consider other study options with the ramp vehicles, taxi limousines, and public buses. For instance, how much suitable land and how many carbon sinks are required for to reduce all GHG at the airport? Moreover, it is recommended that aircraft designers at Boeing, Airbus, and Embraer look into making aircraft that are GHG-sensitive. It is not enough that today’s aircraft are fuel efficient. Airplanes of the future must be GHG-efficient and must not emit tons of carbon emissions and PM into the air—especially in urban regions like Fort Lauderdale, Hollywood, or Dania Beach (Melaleuca Gardens). It has been suggested that some car companies take an interest in reducing GHG with their car engines, and this prospect leads one to wonder what can be done about the GHG that accumulate at airports like FLL. Therefore, it is recommended that aircraft companies embrace new technology that makes “green aircraft” for air travel of the future. Future Applications The most important message of this report goes to the airport planners and employees in public service. If airports like Amsterdam, Zürich, and 114 Stockholm can lead the way for GHG mitigation, what is stopping airports like FLL from doing the same? It is incumbent upon planners of the future at all airports to reduce carbon emissions and encourage airlines and airport-related companies to pursue a “green” world that benefits from projects such as carbon sinks. Moreover, if FLL’s carbon sink is a success, one can replicate this project elsewhere—such as small regional airports like the Fort Lauderdale Commercial Airport, or larger airports like New York LaGuardia or New York John F. Kennedy Airports. The goal with these airport carbon sinks is to reduce GHG ubiquitously and improve the global picture of carbon mission mitigation as recommended by ICAO, IMO, and the Kyoto Protocol. There are other options. First, it was suggested in the literature review that an offset be established for passengers who travel by plane. In other words, if one chooses to fly, one can charge a fee calibrated for the length of travel which will cover the costs of procuring land, planting a tree or shrub, and then watering and caring for it. Granted that this idea is voluntary in most places, it may be required one day on a permanent basis to offset the damage created by a blast of GHG from an airplane’s engine. Second, passengers may be forced to choose between traveling, or not traveling at all in order to mitigate GHG. Should the price of air fuel become exorbitant in the years to come, this prospect may be more imminent than previously imagined. For instance, would one be willing to fly to New York from Fort Lauderdale for $10,000 in the economy section if the price 115 of fuel goes up too high and an offset for GHG mitigation is then added to the price of the ticket? Presently, the general public has the choice of flying based on utility. If it serves the purpose and the people can afford the price of the ticket, people will fly and utilize the airport and its services. The question remains: how do we curb GHG in the years to come? Should we begin now with carbon sinks and implement voluntary offset programs soon thereafter? Should we tell the general public not to fly because of the dangers they present to people who work at or visit the airport? Do these people care about what GHG do to communities like Melaleuca Gardens that live on the periphery of the airport? Granted that airport travel will probably increase over the next decade provided that airplane fuel does not preclude it, one must consider the prospects for mitigating GHG worldwide. Airports must reach out to neighboring communities like Fort Lauderdale, Hollywood, and Dania Beach, and these cities must help in the construction of carbon sinks in other neighboring regions in order to reduce carbon emissions and PM in the atmosphere. Ordinances must be passed to restrict the felling of a tree or removal of a shrub so that carbon sinks may be protected against vandal attacks. Without the world’s attention and mutual cooperation, GHG accumulation may increase dramatically over the next several decades. 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Retrieved January 2, 2012, from About.com Environmental Issues: http://environment.about.com/od/healthenvironment/a/uscancerdeaths.htm 124 APPENDIX 1 This section is a listing of native trees and shrubs found In Florida (www.floridasnature.com/floridatrees1.htm). 125 APPENDIX 2 This section contains findings pertaining to FL tree and shrub rankings without logarithm. 161 Table 15: Florida Trees and Shrubs (No Logarithm) Name St. John's Wort Buttonwood Water Soil Foliage Pruning Fertilize Sun Proximity Climate Wind Wildlife Berry Flower Fruit Height Sum 0.9 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4.7 0 0 0 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5.5 Beachcreeper 0.9 0 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0.7 0 0 1 0 3 6.3 Coastal St. J.-W. 0.9 0.9 0 0 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 6.6 Roundpod St. J.-W. 0.9 0.9 0 0 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 6.6 Sandweed 0.9 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 6.7 Reticulate Pawpaw 0.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 5 6.9 Southern Dewberry 1.8 0 1.4 1 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 7 Myrtle Oak 0.9 0 0 0 0 0.8 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 5 7.5 Doctorbush 1.8 0 0.7 1 0 0 0 0 0.7 0 0 1 0 3 8.2 Dwarf Live Oak 0.9 0.9 0 1 0 0 0.8 0 0 0.8 0 1 0 3 8.4 Bigflower Pawpaw 0.9 0.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 6 8.8 Sand Live Oak 1.8 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.6 0 0 5 9.4 0 0.9 1.4 0 0 0 0 1.6 0 0.8 0 0 0 5 9.7 Indigo Bush 0.9 0.9 1.4 1 0 0.8 0 0 0.7 0 0 1 0 3 9.7 Florida Privet 0.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 8 9.9 0 1.8 1.4 0.5 0 1.6 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 4 10.1 Sea Lavender 0.9 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.8 0 0.7 0 0 1 0 6 10.2 Lantana 0.9 0 0 1 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 1.6 1 0 5 10.3 Ground Oak 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 0 0 0.7 1.6 0 1 1.6 1 10.5 Velvet Wild Coffee 0.9 0 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 0 0 0.7 0.8 0 1 0 5 11.2 Wild Coffee 0.9 0 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 0 0 0.7 0.8 0 1 0 5 11.2 Florida Rosemary Water Toothleaf 162 Groundsel 1.8 0.9 0.7 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 11.2 0 1.8 0.7 0 0 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 0 1 1.6 5 11.7 Ficus 0.9 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 11.9 Inkberry 0.9 0.9 0 0.5 0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.6 0 1 0 4 12 Shiny Blueberry 1.8 0 0 0.5 0 1.6 0 0.8 1.4 1.6 0 1 1.6 2 12.3 Deerberry 1.8 0 0.7 0 0 0.8 0 0.8 0 0.8 1.6 1 0 5 12.5 Pineland Acacia 0.9 0 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 10 12.6 Tarflower 0.9 0.9 0.7 0 0 0.8 0 0.8 0 0 0 1 0 8 13.1 Staggerbush 1.8 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0 0 1.6 3 13.1 Spanish Bayonet 0.9 0 0.7 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 10 13.4 0 0 0 1 0.8 0.8 0 0 0.7 1.6 1.6 1 0 6 13.5 Strongbark 0.9 0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0 0 0 0.7 0.8 0 1 1.6 7 13.6 Chapman's Oak 1.8 0 0 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.6 0 0 10 13.9 Beautyberry 1.8 0 1.4 1 0 0.8 0 0 0 0.8 1.6 1 0 6 14.4 Gray Nicker 0.9 0 0.7 0.5 0 0.8 0 0 0.7 0 0 1 0 10 14.6 Queensdelight 1.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.6 0.7 0.8 0 1 1.6 3 15 Firebush 0.9 0 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.6 0 1 1.6 10 15.8 0 0 0.7 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 16.2 Scrub Hickory 1.8 0.9 0.7 0 0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 1 0 10 16.8 Varnishleaf 0.9 0 0.7 0 0.8 0.8 0 0.8 1.4 0.8 0 1 0 10 17.2 Saw Palmetto 1.8 0.9 0.7 1 0 0 0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0 1 0 10 17.7 0 1.8 0.7 0 0 0.8 0 0.8 0 0.8 0 1 0 12 17.9 Graytwig/Whitewood 0.9 0 0 0.5 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 1 0 15 18.2 Coco Plum 0.9 0.9 0 1 0 0 0 0.8 0.7 1.6 0 1 1.6 10 18.5 Lignum Vitae 0.9 0 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.6 1 0 15 19.2 Fiddlewood 0.9 0 0.7 0 0 0.8 0 0 0.7 0.8 0 1 0 15 19.9 Coin Vine Rouge Plant Acacia Buttonbush 163 Pineland Snowberry 1.8 1.8 0 0 0 0.8 0.8 1.6 0.7 0.8 1.6 0 0 10 19.9 Marlberry 1.8 0 0.7 0.5 0 0.8 0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0 1 1.6 12 20.7 0 0.9 0 0.5 0 0 0 0 0.7 1.6 0 1 1.6 15 21.3 Cherokee Bean 1.8 0 0 1 0.8 0 0 0 0 1.6 0 1 1.6 16 23.8 Pond Apple 0.9 0.9 1.4 0 0 0 0 0 1.4 1.6 0 1 1.6 15 23.8 Wild Lime 0.9 0.9 0 1 0.8 0 0.8 0.8 0 1.6 0 1 1.6 15 24.4 Sabal Palm 0.9 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.8 0 0.8 0 0 1.6 1.6 1 0 15 24.5 Swamp Dogwood 1.8 1.8 0.7 0.5 0 0 0 0 0.7 1.6 0 1 1.6 15 24.7 Royal Palm Jamaica Caper 0.9 0 1.4 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 0.8 0 1 0 20 24.9 Paurotis Palm 0 0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0 0 0 0 0.8 1.6 1 0 20 25 Red Mangrove 0 0.9 0 1 0 0 0.8 0 0.7 1.6 0 0 0 20 25 Willow Bustic 0.9 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.7 0 1.6 1 0 20 25.2 Spicewood 0.9 0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0 0 0 0.7 0 0 1 1.6 20 25.8 Stoppers 0.9 0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0 0 0 0.7 0 0 1 1.6 20 25.8 Torchwood 0.9 0 0.7 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.7 1.6 1.6 0 0 20 26.3 0 0 0.7 0 0 0.8 0 0 0.7 1.6 1.6 1 0 20 26.4 0.9 0 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 26.6 0 0.9 0 1 0 0.8 0.8 0 0.7 1.6 0 1 0 20 26.8 Devil's Wlkg. Stick 0.9 0 0.7 1 0 0 0 0 0.7 1.6 1.6 1 0 20 27.5 Coconut Palm 0.9 0 1.4 0.5 0.8 0 0 0 0 1.6 0 1 1.6 20 27.8 Wax Myrtle 0.9 0 0.7 0.5 0 0.8 0 0 0.7 1.6 0 1 1.6 20 27.8 Myrsine 0.9 0 0.7 0 0 0.8 0 1.6 0.7 0.8 1.6 1 0 20 28.1 Poisonwood 1.8 0 0.7 1 0 0.8 0 0 0.7 0.8 1.6 1 0 20 28.4 American Elm 1.8 0 0 1 0 0 0.8 1.6 0.7 1.6 0 1 0 20 28.5 Bitterwood 1.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0 0 0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0 1 1.6 20 28.8 Geiger Tree 0.9 0 0.7 0 0 0.8 0 0 0.7 0 0 1 0 25 29.1 Elderberry Gumbo Limbo White Mangrove 164 Turkey Oak 0.9 0.9 0.7 1 0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.6 1.6 0 0 20 29.8 Sand Pine 1.8 0 1.4 0 0 0 0.8 1.6 0 0 0 0 0 25 30.6 Seagrape 0.9 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1.6 0 1 1.6 25 31.1 Coastplain Willow 0.9 0.9 0.7 0 0 0.8 0 0 0.7 1.6 0 1 0 25 31.6 Red Maple 1.8 0 0 0.5 0 0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0 0 1 1.6 25 32.2 Swamp Bay 0 0.9 0.7 0 0 0.8 0.8 0 0.7 0.8 0 1 1.6 25 32.3 Lancewood 0.9 0 0.7 1 0 0.8 0.8 0 0.7 0.8 1.6 1 0 25 33.3 0 0.9 1.4 0.5 0 0 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.6 0 0 1.6 25 33.3 Dahoon Holly Winged Sumac 0.9 0 0.7 1 0.4 0.8 0 0 0.7 1.6 0 1 1.6 25 33.7 Swamp Cyrilla 0 1.8 0.7 0 0 0 0 0.8 0.7 0 0 0 0 30 34 Red Mulberry 1.8 0.9 0.7 0 0.8 0.8 0 1.6 0.7 0 0 1 1.6 25 34.9 Tawnyberry 0.9 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.7 0.8 1.6 1 0 30 36 Strangler Fig 0 0.9 0 1 0 0.8 0 0.8 1.4 0.8 1.6 0 0 30 37.3 Sweet Bay 0 0 0 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.6 0 0 1.6 30 37.6 Black Ironwood 0.9 0 0 1 0.4 0.8 0 0 1.4 1.6 1.6 1 0 30 38.7 Pigeon Plum 0.9 0 0.7 1 0.4 0.8 0 0 0.7 1.6 0 1 1.6 30 38.7 Mahogany 1.8 0 0.7 0.5 0 0 0.8 0 0.7 0 0 1 1.6 35 42.1 Tamarind 1.8 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.7 0.8 0 1 0 40 45.3 Loblolly Bay 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.6 0 1 0 40 49.5 Persimmon 1.8 1.8 0 1 0 0 0 0 1.4 1.6 0 1 1.6 40 50.2 Jungle Plum 1.8 0 0.7 1 0 1.6 0 0.8 1.4 1.6 0 1 1.6 40 51.5 Bald Cypress 0 1.8 1.4 0 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 54 Black Mangrove 0 0.9 0 1 0 0 0.8 0 0.7 1.6 0 0 0 50 55 Sycamore 0 0 0 1 0.8 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 1 0 60 63.6 0.9 0 0.7 1 0 0 0 0 1.4 0.8 0 0 0 60 64.8 0 0 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 1.6 0 1 0 60 65.4 Live Oak Laurel Oak 165 Water Hickory 1.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 1 0 60 67.3 Southern Magnolia 1.8 1.8 0.7 0.5 0.8 0 0 0 0.7 0 0 1 0 60 67.3 Slash Pine 1.8 0 1.4 0 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 79 166 Figure 13: Two-Step Clustering with Trees and Shrubs (No Logarithm) Table 16: K-Means Clustering with Trees and Shrubs (No Logarithm) Iteration Historya Change in Cluster Centers Iteration 1 2 1 15.118 20.923 2 .000 .000 a. Convergence achieved due to no or small change in cluster centers. The maximum absolute coordinate change for any center is .000. The current iteration is 2. The minimum distance between initial centers is 74.300. 167 Table 17: Hierarchical Clustering with Trees and Shrubs (No Logarithm) Agglomeration Schedule Cluster Combined Stage Cluster 1 Stage Cluster First Appears Cluster 2 Coefficients Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Next Stage 1 61 62 .000 0 0 29 2 21 22 .000 0 0 31 3 4 5 .000 0 0 7 4 29 32 1.280 0 0 14 5 6 7 1.680 0 0 12 6 68 69 2.260 0 0 24 7 3 4 2.520 0 3 28 8 58 60 2.880 0 0 34 9 67 71 2.900 0 0 22 10 63 64 3.100 0 0 34 11 13 19 3.260 0 0 65 12 6 9 3.600 5 0 26 13 53 56 3.660 0 0 44 14 29 37 3.780 4 0 38 15 101 102 3.860 0 0 81 16 10 11 3.920 0 0 32 17 41 43 4.220 0 0 25 18 52 54 4.260 0 0 44 19 12 18 4.540 0 0 35 20 80 82 4.660 0 0 33 21 47 48 4.820 0 0 30 22 67 70 4.830 9 0 47 23 59 66 4.880 0 0 60 24 68 73 5.030 6 0 61 25 41 42 5.150 17 0 58 26 2 6 5.167 0 12 45 27 88 90 5.200 0 0 70 28 1 3 5.340 0 7 45 29 57 61 5.400 0 1 52 30 45 47 5.490 0 21 73 31 21 26 5.500 2 0 64 32 10 15 5.530 16 0 69 168 33 80 83 5.810 20 0 57 34 58 63 5.915 8 10 52 35 12 16 5.940 19 0 65 36 87 89 6.020 0 0 48 37 14 17 6.060 0 0 71 38 25 29 6.173 0 14 42 39 77 78 6.240 0 0 53 40 99 100 6.300 0 0 49 41 31 38 6.380 0 0 83 42 25 35 6.725 38 0 92 43 28 36 6.740 0 0 55 44 52 53 6.790 18 13 62 45 1 2 6.895 28 26 74 46 23 30 7.060 0 0 68 47 67 72 7.513 22 0 51 48 86 87 7.650 0 36 70 49 98 99 7.720 0 40 81 50 96 97 7.820 0 0 97 51 67 75 7.945 47 0 61 52 57 58 8.043 29 34 60 53 77 79 8.180 39 0 57 54 65 74 8.380 0 0 78 55 28 33 8.460 43 0 76 56 93 94 8.460 0 0 66 57 77 80 8.542 53 33 63 58 41 46 8.727 25 0 67 59 20 27 8.760 0 0 83 60 57 59 9.080 52 23 79 61 67 68 9.197 51 24 79 62 52 55 9.300 44 0 77 63 77 81 9.510 57 0 80 64 21 24 9.580 31 0 71 65 12 13 9.710 35 11 75 66 93 95 9.730 56 0 90 67 39 41 9.995 0 58 72 68 23 34 10.280 46 0 76 69 8 10 10.640 0 32 74 70 86 88 10.750 48 27 86 169 71 14 21 11.310 37 64 75 72 39 44 12.128 67 0 85 73 40 45 12.693 0 30 89 74 1 8 13.292 45 69 91 75 12 14 13.448 65 71 84 76 23 28 13.464 68 55 84 77 51 52 14.304 0 62 93 78 65 76 14.690 54 0 87 79 57 67 14.909 60 61 93 80 77 85 15.303 63 0 87 81 98 101 15.887 49 15 99 82 49 50 16.020 0 0 85 83 20 31 16.085 59 41 88 84 12 23 19.168 75 76 88 85 39 49 19.488 72 82 89 86 84 86 25.252 0 70 94 87 65 77 28.512 78 80 95 88 12 20 30.226 84 83 91 89 39 40 32.536 85 73 92 90 92 93 33.320 0 66 97 91 1 12 38.958 74 88 96 92 25 39 41.739 42 89 96 93 51 57 44.886 77 79 98 94 84 91 63.023 86 0 95 95 65 84 90.930 87 94 98 96 1 25 122.089 91 92 100 97 92 96 145.448 90 50 101 98 51 65 174.102 93 95 100 99 98 103 411.448 81 0 101 100 1 51 633.268 96 98 102 101 92 98 753.924 97 99 102 102 1 92 3463.691 100 101 0 170