Welcome to EC 209: Managerial Economics- Group A By: Dr. Jacqueline Khorassani Class 1: Week One 1 Monday, September 3 11:00-11:50 Fottrell (AM) Study the Course Contract available on line at www.marietta.edu/~khorassj – Click on Fall 2007 Courses – Click on EC 209 : Managerial Economics Click on Course Contract – It is in Microsoft Word format Make sure you understand the contract Ask me questions via an email to khorassj@marietta.edu or jacqueline.khorassani@nuigalway.ie . 2 Highlights of the Contract Why Managerial Economics? Suppose you are the manager of a ice-cream shop Lists some of the decisions you have to make – Price of ice-cream – Quantity of ice-cream – Inputs (how to minimize cost subject to the constraint of quality of inputs) – Productivity/ efficiency Where have you leaned about these stuff? – MICROECOMICS 3 Why Managerial Economics? Do managers have full information? – No Where have you learned about decision making under uncertainty? – STATISTICS Managerial Economics is about microeconomics, statistics, and more 4 Textbook Managerial Economics and Business Strategy, fifth edition, by Michael R. Baye. Purchase this book from the college bookshop because a chapter from another economics textbook is included with the version of the book available in the college bookshop. We will be using this chapter during the course. 5 Means of Communication 1. Class 2. My website 3. Mondays: 11:00-11:50, Fottrell (AM) Tuesdays: 15:00-15:50, Cairnes Theatre Thursdays: 15:00-15:50, Tyndall Theatre www.marietta.edu/~khorassj Email 1. khorassj@marietta.edu 2. Jacqueline.khorassani@nuigalway.ie 6 Means of Communication 4. Office 310 St. Anthony’s Phone: 091- 493105 (office Hours Mondays: 14:00-15:00 Tu & Th: 12:00-13:00 Wednesdays: 13:00-14:00 & by appointment. 5. Blackboard (Later) – http://balckboard.nuigalway.ie 7 My Teaching Philosophy I am not a lecturer – In other words, I am not going to be a transmitter of knowledge. I am a designer You are not knowledge sponges You are knowledge constructors 8 My tasks 1. Design a map that will lead you toward the construction of your knowledge. – Study guides will be posted on my website in the beginning of each week. 2. Help you figure out how to ask the right questions when you feel lost. 3. Ask you questions in an attempt to find out if you are on the right track. 4. Give clear and meaningful answers to your questions. – PowerPoint slides of the classroom activities will be posted on my website at the end of each week. 9 Your tasks 1. 2. Study and follow the map Ask questions when you feel lost – A dumb question is better than no question 3. Respond to my questions – Be prepared to be wrong sometimes 10 Our joint task is to build a learning environment in which we feel free and comfortable to express our thoughts; to respectfully disagree with each other at times; and to learn from each other. 11 Assignments Carry 100 points (25% of the course grade). Will be completed on line on Aplia You will need to register on line. The details are outlined in the course contract. 12 Examination There is only one exam at the end of the term. Carries 300 points or 75% of the course grade. 13 Study the textbook’s Preface Believe me it is not a waste of time to read the Preface of a book Ask me questions via an email. 14 Chapter 1 Who is a manager? – A person who directs resources to achieve a stated goal. What is economics? – The science of making decisions in the presence of scare resources. What is managerial economics? – The study of how to direct scarce resources in the way that most efficiently achieves a managerial goal. What are some goals and constraints of managers? 15 Costs What is the accounting (explicit) cost of producing ice-cream – The explicit costs of the resources needed to produce ice-cream. Milk, ice-cream machine, labor,…. What is the opportunity cost of producing ice-cream? – The cost of the explicit and implicit resources that are foregone when a decision is made. What is an example of implicit cost? – If you run your own ice-cream shop and do not directly (explicitly) pay salary to yourself. 16 Ec 209: Managerial Economics-Group A Week One- Class 2 – Tuesday, September 4 – Cairness Is anybody here for the first time? 17 I received a question This class does not have a regular tutorial There will be teaching assistant who will hold office hours and special tutorial sessions as needed 18 Profits Accounting Profits – Total revenue minus total explicit cost. Economic Profits – Total revenue minus total opportunity cost. Which one is higher? 19 What are accounting profits and Economic profit of the ice-cream shop? Revenue = €2000 Cost of labor = €500 Cost of other inputs = €700 The owner is the manager but she does not pay herself salary Accounting profit=? Economic profit=? 20 Why profits are important? The reason you are making profits is because people are willing and able to pay a high price (relative to your cost) for your ice-cream. Why do they pay a high price? – Because the value of ice-cream to them is high. (They really want it badly.) 21 The Five Forces Framework and Profitability 1. Entry 2. Power of Input Suppliers 3. Power of Buyers Sustainabl e Industry Profits 3. Industry Rivalry 4. Substitutes & Complements 22 Understand Incentives Are important – Examples 23 Market Interactions Is there a rivalry between consumer & Producer – Consumers attempt to locate low prices, while producers attempt to charge high prices. Is there a rivalry between consumer & consumer? – Scarcity of goods 24 Market Interactions Is there a rivalry between Producer & Producer> – Scarcity of consumers – Scarcity of resources What is the role of Government – Disciplines the market process. 25 Would you prefer to receive €100 today or €100 next year? €100 today or €105 next year? €100 today or €120 next year? What affects your decision? Bring calculators to this class please 26 The Time Value of Money • Present value (PV) of a lump-sum amount (FV) to be received at the end of “n” periods when the per-period interest rate is “i”: PV FV 1 i n 27 If interest rate is 10% Then the present value of €110 to be received one year form now is PV = 110/(1+0.1) = 100 28 Examples 1. Lotto – 2. winner choosing between a single lump-sum payout of $104 million or $198 million over 25 years. Business You need to choose between a project with a expected profit of €200 next year and another one with the expected profit of €230 in 2 years. 29 Present Value of a Series • Present value of a stream of future amounts (FVt) received at the end of each period for “n” periods: PV FV1 1 i 1 FV2 1 i 2 ... FVn 1 i n 30 Example • You will be receiving 100 next year, 200 in 2 years and 50 in 3 years • What is the present value of this income stream if the interest rate is 10%? 31 EC 209: Managerial Economics Week One: Class 3 – Thursday, September 6 – 15:10- 16:00 Teaching Assistant – Darragh Flannery – d.flannery@nuigalway.ie – Office: 234 , St. Anthony's – Office Hours: Mondays 32 Note: Aplia Enrollment – Is Under Professor Brendan Kennley’s name 33 Notes: At the end of each week, I post classroom slides on line. In the beginning of a new week, I post a study guide on line. Your job is to review the study guide and ask me questions. If you don’t ask, I assume that you have no problem and I may not cover certain material. But you are responsible to know everything that is on the study guide. 34 I received a question on implicit/explicit cost Explicit cost is out of pocket cost – Pay €200 to attend this class Implicit cost is forgone benefit – When attend class can’t go to movies Value of movies to you = €50 Total opportunity cost of class = implicit cost + explicit cost = €250 35 What is the net present value of a stream of future amounts? • Suppose a manager can purchase a stream of future receipts (FVt ) by spending “C0” dollars today. The NPV of such a decision is NPV FV1 1 i If 1 FV2 1 i 2 ... FVn 1 i n C0 Decision Rule: NPV < 0: Reject project NPV > 0: Accept project 36 What is the present value of a perpetuity of identical cash flows? • An asset that perpetually generates a stream of cash flows (CF) at the end of each period is called a perpetuity. • The present value (PV) of a perpetuity of cash flows paying the same amount at the end of each period is CF CF CF PVPerpetuity ... 2 3 1 i 1 i 1 i CF i 37 What is the value of a firm? • The value of a firm equals the present value of current and future profits. – PV = S pt / (1 + i)t • If profits grow at a constant rate (g < i) and current period profits are po: 1 i PVFirm p 0 before current profits have been paid out as dividends; ig 1 g Ex Dividend PVFirm p0 immediately after current profits are paid out as dividends. ig • If the growth rate in profits < interest rate and both remain constant, maximizing the present value of all future profits is the same as maximizing current profits. 38 What are some variables that managers can control? Control Variables – Quantity of Output – Price – Product Quality – Money spent on advertising – Money spent on R&D 39 Basic Managerial Question: How much of the control variable should be used to maximize net benefits? Where – Net benefits = total benefits – total costs 40 Marginal analysis: Suppose the control variable under study is output, Q • Marginal Benefit, MB – Is the benefit of the last unit of control variable output ,Q. – Is equal to the change in total benefits divided by a change in the output Q: B MB Q • Graphically, the MB curve is the slope (derivative) of the total benefit curve. 41 Marginal Cost (MC) • Is the cost of the last unit of output, Q • Is equal to the change in total costs divided by a change in the control variable, Q: C MC Q • Graphically, the MC curve is the slope (derivative) of the total cost curve 42 Marginal Principle To maximize benefits, the managerial control variable (Q) should be increased up to the point where MB = MC. MB > MC means the last unit of the output increased benefits more than it increased costs need to produce more output MB < MC means the last unit of the output increased costs more than it increased benefits need to produce less output 43 The Geometry of Optimization Total Benefits & Total Costs Costs Slope =MB Benefits B Slope = MC C Q* Q 44 Conclusions Make sure you include all costs and benefits when making decisions (opportunity cost). When decisions span time, make sure you are comparing apples to apples (PV analysis). Optimal economic decisions are made at the margin (marginal analysis). 45