Project Appraisal and Feasibility Studies

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Water PPPs : Training & Workshop

Developing a PPP - Project Appraisal and

Feasibility Studies

Infrastructure Development Corporation (Karnataka) Limited

February 2009

1

Reasons for Limited PPPs

 Lack of adequate project development

 Projects not bankable

 Operator led projects, than Government led projects

 Procurement Issues – MoU vs Competitive bidding

 Lack of credible information

 Lack of political will

 Resistance to “Privatisation” –experience in most cities

 Who bears revenue risk? (“tariff setting”)

2

Need for Project Development

 Infrastructure projects typically have a number associated issues which need to be resolved to ensure successful implementation and operationalisation

 Project viability

 Technical

 Financial

 Legal issues (eg. Statutory guidelines)

 Environmental and Social implications (eg. clearance from the MoEF, estimation of land acqusition required)

 Government interface (eg. whether the project has been approved by the government taking into account the above issues)

… Need for proper project definition to resolve all issues pertaining to the project

3

Need for Project Development

 Historical practice of selection of developer through MoU route is no longer the preferred alternative

 Selected developer funds requisite studies which would form the basis for future negotiations and signing of agreement

 Also the bone of contention leading to failure in taking off of projects

 Current practice of selection of developer through a transparent bidding process

 However, investment in project definition/resolution of all issues pertaining to the project by all interested bidders both infeasible and sub-optimal - leads to lack of participation

Need for Government to invest in requisite technical, market, financial viability studies to reduce project risks and attract bidders to the project

4

The Need

 Finalise desirable technical configuration

 Identify and resolve Environment and Social issues

 Estimate inputs for project viability assessment

 Assess project viability and finalise project structure

 Compile data pre-requisites necessary for bidding

 Preparation of bidding documents

5

Development Process

A.

Project Conceptualisation

Project

Identification

Technical

Feasibility

Financial

Viability

Project

Structuring

Options

Resolution of

Implementation

Issues

B.

Bid Process Management

Contractual &

Bid documentation

Bid Process

Feedback &

Monitoring

6

The Objective of Project Development

 To reduce “unknowns” and “assumptions”

 Identify and allocate risk, responsibility

 Create a complete documentation archive

 Set in place a set of contract documents

 Detail payments/ rewards/ penalties

 Project development does NOT mean creating a Feasibility Report and bidding for a developer

 Any issue that can derail a project should be addressed, including land,

R&R…

7

Development Cycle

 Step 1 - Sector Study

 Demand/Supply - Current & Projected - returns from the asset, maintenance

 Tariffs/ Pricing - Current and Projected

 Regulation - Entry criteria, Competition, Price/ Tariff Control

 Implementation Structure - Government, Private Sector, joint venture..

 Policy framework

 Enabling Legal and Contractual Framework

 Should result in a well-defined strategy

 Step 2 - Project Identification

 Better utilise Existing Assets or Create New Assets or a Combination

 Where to start - bulk or retail or both - the dilemma in water, sewage

 Technology: Broad Indication

8

The Need Defined

Client’s Explanation

Project Leader’s understanding

Designer’s

Program writer

Business Consultant’s

Plan

Project

Documentation

Specifications

Support

What Public wanted

The Need

 What is desirable technical configuration

 A good technical configuration, during the bidding phase, should provide sufficient room for innovativeness for bidders while sufficiently covering the essentials

 Water : Minimum investment amount, specific facilities, design and construction approval

  Applicable guidelines and major equipment specifications

 Output based Specifications are the key to PPP projects – Can the government become purchaser of services rather than service provider ?

10

The Need

 Identify and resolve Environment and Social issues

 Extent of land acquisition and cost thereof

 Private land/government land

 Agricultural land/barren land

 Forest land

 Built-up structures

 Extent of utility relocation and cost thereof

 Environment Impact Assessment and Mitigation Measures

 Develop R&R plan

 However, at times private sector has been able to manage the issues more effectively with facilitator role played by the government

11

The Need

 Estimation of inputs for project viability assessment

 Demand Estimation - volume, composition and growth

 Construction Cost and Project Cost

 Operations and maintenance cost

 Input into financial viability – impacts structuring decision

 Reflected in the Concession Agreement – impacts Termination Payments

 Often operations and maintenance costs are ignored, which in many projects of the government could be more than the capital investment

 Solid waste management

 Small airports

 Operations and maintenance costs are under-estimated by departments

 Roads

12

The Need

 Assess project viability and finalise project structure

 Aim is to minimize Grant/Annuity Payments –variables being

 Concession Period

 Packaging of additional O&M stretch

 However, critical to get key input parameters right

 Compile data pre-requisites necessary for bidding

 Obviate need for multiple investigations by bidders

 Preparation of bidding documents

 Finalise pre-qualification criteria and hurdle numbers

 Incorporate project specific issues, if any. For example -

 Bypass road : banning entry into town

 Construction phasing

13

Why Risk Assessment?

 Huge upfront capital costs and low margins

 Returns typically back ended - long term in nature

 No tangible security

 No. of participants

 Long term finance

 Long gestation periods

 Non completion operations affect many

 Limited or no recourse

 Low Appetite for long term finances in domestic market

14

Risky List!

 Construction/ Completion

 Operation Risk

 Environmental

 Regulatory

 Forex

 Interest

 Demand

 Credit

 Political/ Social

15

Principles of Risk Allocation

 Allocate project-specific risks to parties best able to bear them

 Control performance risks through incentive contracts

 Use market-hedging instruments (derivatives) for covering market-wide risks (interest and exchange rate fluctuations)

16

17

Project Issues - Financial

 What is the price level for making the project viable? Would the users be willing to pay this user charge?

 Are there any additional sources of income for the project? (e.g.. land development etc.)

 In case the project is not financially viable at an acceptable user charge, how much of government grant is required?

 Should the government grant be one-time or spread across years?

 What should be the time frame for which the project is handed over to the private developer?

 Typically, with pricing / cost comparatively quantifiable entities, often the softer issues get sidelined, in most PPP projects.

18

Financial Accuracy

19

Risk Mitigation

 PRAYER !!!!

 Proper Allocation Of Risks

 Insurances

 Hedging/ Options/ Swaps

 Third Party Guarantees

 PRAYER !!!!

20

Risk Factors

 Supply

 Hydrology/ rainfall patterns/ quality/ water access contracts

 Distribution monopoly vs trucked; user fees; desire to avoid retail revenues

 Operating

 New technologies in wastewater/ energy/ metering

 Infrastructure

 Old/ theft (leakage)

 Environmental

 Benign

21

Risk Factors

 Political

 Privatization trends/ pricing controls/ rationing

 Force majuere

 Maintenance/ buffers

 Foreign Exchange

 Local currency revenues and costs

 Funding

 Long term

 Engineering

 Standard

 Completion

 Ongoing large capex throughout

 Legal

 Concession life/ defaults

22

Thank You

23

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