TRIMS
Technical Risk Identification
and Mitigation System
Ralph Sickinger
Presented By:
PMWS Development Manager
ralph@bmpcoe.org
25 August, 2008
The BMP Program
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Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System
1
History of the BMP Program
1960-1980
Many programs failing or suffering cost/schedule overruns
1983-1984
Defense Science Board studies the problem; publishes findings in
DOD 4245.7-M (The “Willoughby Templates”)
1985
Best Manufacturing Practices Program established to help the U.S. Defense
Industrial Base - BMP conducts first Survey (Texas Instruments)
1986
BMP publishes NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book)
1987
BMP contracts with Bell Labs to write more detail on each Template
1991
First version of PMWS is created
1993
BMP Center of Excellence established in College Park, MD
2000
BMP conducts 100th Survey (Northrop Grumman)
www.bmpcoe.org
Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System
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History of the BMP Program
1960-1980
Many programs failing or suffering cost/schedule overruns
1983-1984
Defense Science Board studies the problem; publishes findings in
DOD 4245.7-M (The “Willoughby Templates”)
1985
Best Manufacturing Practices Program established to help the U.S. Defense
Industrial Base - BMP conducts first Survey (Texas Instruments)
1986
BMP publishes NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book)
1987
BMP contracts with Bell Labs to write more detail on each Template
1991
First version of PMWS is created
1993
BMP Center of Excellence established in College Park, MD
2000
BMP conducts 100th Survey (Northrop Grumman)
www.bmpcoe.org
Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System
3
History of the BMP Program
1960-1980
Many programs failing or suffering cost/schedule overruns
1983-1984
Defense Science Board studies the problem; publishes findings in
DOD 4245.7-M (The “Willoughby Templates”)
1985
Best Manufacturing Practices Program established to help the U.S. Defense
Industrial Base - BMP conducts first Survey (Texas Instruments)
1986
BMP publishes NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book)
1987
BMP contracts with Bell Labs to write more detail on each Template
1991
First version of PMWS is created
1993
BMP Center of Excellence established in College Park, MD
2000
BMP conducts 100th Survey (Northrop Grumman)
www.bmpcoe.org
Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System
4
Problem Areas Identified by DSB
Money Phasing
Failure Reporting System
Transition Plan
Design Reference Mission Profile
Uniform Test Report
Modernization
Design Requirements
Software Test
Factory Improvements
Trade Studies
Design Limit
Productivity Center
Design Policy
Life
Logistics Support Analysis
Design Process
Test, Analyze & Fix (TAAF)
Manpower & Personnel
Design Analysis
Field Feedback
Support & Test Equipment
Parts & Material Selection
Manufacturing Plan
Training Materials & Equipment
Software Design
Qualify Manufacturing Process
Spares
Computer-Aided Design (CAD)
Piece Part Control
Technical Manuals
Design for Testing
Subcontractor Control
Manufacturing Strategy
Built-In Test (BIT)
Defect Control
Personnel Requirements
Configuration Control
Tool Planning
Data Requirements
Design Reviews
Special Test Equipment (STE)
Technical Risk Assessment
Design Release
Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAM)
Production Breaks
Integrated Test
Manufacturing Screening
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Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System
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Problem Areas Identified by DSB
FUNDING:
Money Phasing
DESIGN:
Design Reference Mission Profile
Design Requirements
Trade Studies
Design Policy
Design Process
Design Analysis
Parts & Material Selection
Software Design
Computer-Aided Design (CAD)
Design for Testing
Built-In Test (BIT)
Configuration Control
Design Reviews
Design Release
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TEST:
Integrated Test
Failure Reporting System
Uniform Test Report
Software Test
Design Limit
Life
Test, Analyze & Fix (TAAF)
Field Feedback
PRODUCTION:
Manufacturing Plan
Qualify Manufacturing Process
Piece Part Control
Subcontractor Control
Defect Control
Tool Planning
Special Test Equipment (STE)
Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAM)
Manufacturing Screening
Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System
TRANSITION:
Transition Plan
FACILITIES:
Modernization
Factory Improvements
Productivity Center
LOGISTICS:
Logistics Support Analysis
Manpower & Personnel
Support & Test Equipment
Training Materials & Equipment
Spares
Technical Manuals
MANAGEMENT:
Manufacturing Strategy
Personnel Requirements
Data Requirements
Technical Risk Assessment
Production Breaks
6
DoD 4245.7-M
“Willoughby Templates”
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Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System
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NAVSO P-6071
“Best Practices Book”
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Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System
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NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book)
www.bmpcoe.org
Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System
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NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book)
www.bmpcoe.org
Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System
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NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book)
www.bmpcoe.org
Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System
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NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book)
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Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System
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Some Things To Consider
•
Defense Science Board Studies Determined that 80% of all Programs that
Fail, Fail for Engineering not Technology Reasons
•
Example: N43 Reports that Over 65% of all Fleet Reliability Problems are
Due to Inadequate Design
•
February 1998 GAO Report to the Subcommittee on Acquisition &
Technology, Committee on Armed Services, U. S. Senate
–
–
•
March 2005 GAO Report:
•
–
•
Since 1975 Schedule Overruns Average 24%
Weapon Systems Overruns Cost 20% - 40%
Average Cost Increase Will be 28.5% in Only 4 Years
Reason: “Armed services order hardware with unproven technology,
with too little time allowed for perfecting that technology before
contractors attempt to insert it into weapons systems...”
With Acquisition Reform and Performance Specifications, We Must Monitor
the Engineering Process to Understand Program Risks
Do Not Get Technology Tunnel Vision
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Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System
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TRIMS
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What Is TRIMS?
• TRIMS (Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System):
A Methodology for Doing Knowledge-Based,
Process-Oriented Risk Management
• Includes Set of Software Tools to Help Implement the Methodology
(Navy Owned, Fixed Revision Cycle)
• Outgrowth of DoD 4245.7-M and NAVSO P-6071 Templates
• Fully Compatible with BMPCOE Combined Government / Industry
Systems Engineering Model
• Fully Supported: Training Classes, Computer-Based Training,
On-line Help, 24-hour Help Desk
Process Based And Predictive
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TRIMS Proactive Methodology
Risk Assessment
Guidance
Documents
Engineering
Process Model
Statistics
Probability
Past
Experience
Effect
Planning &
Tracking
System
Architecture
Mission Profile
Schedule
Quality
Cost
Risk Management
Milestone
Dates
Personnel
Assignments
Question
Weighting
Due Dates
Compliance
Status
References
Risks
TRIMS
• Risk Management
Next Actions
• Snapshot Assessments
Responsibilities
• Multiple Program Rollups
Action Item
Tracking
• Automatic Updates
Understanding The Future Effects Of Today's Decisions
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Proactive vs. Reactive
Proactive
Process Risks
Technical Issues
Schedule Slippage
Reactive
Cost Overruns
TRIMS Identifies the Root Causes of Cost & Schedule Problems
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Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System
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Evolution of Risks
T1
T2
Process
Risks
T3
T4
T5
Product
Risks
T6
Problems
“A ‘Problem’ Is A Risk Whose Time Has Come”
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Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System
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Cost To Mitigate Increases Exponentially
Design
Test
Production
Cost to Mitigate
$100
$10
$1
Time
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Cost To Mitigate Increases Exponentially
Design
Test
Production
Cost to Mitigate
Problems
Product Risks
Process Risks
Time
Risk Management or Damage Control?
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Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System
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TRIMS Baseline Templates
DESIGN
TEST
PRODUCT
TQM
FUNDING
Money
Phasing
PRODUCTION
• Design Refer. Mission Profile • Integrated Test
FACILITIES
• Manufacturing Plan
• Modernization
• Failure Reporting
System
• Qualify Manufacturing
Process
• Factory
Improvements
• Design Policy
• Uniform Test
Report
• Piece Part Control
• Productivity
Center
• Design Process
• Software Test
• Design Analysis
• Design Limit
• Parts & Mater. Selection
• Life
• Software Design
• Test, Analyze &
Fix (TAAF)
• Design Requirements
• Trade Studies
•
Computer-Aided Design (CAD)
• Design for Testing
• Built-In Test (BIT)
• Field Feedback
• Subcontractor Control
• Defect Control
• Tool Planning
• Special Test
Equipment (STE)
LOGISTICS
• Logistics Support
Analysis
• Manpower &
Personnel
MANAGEMENT
• Manufacturing Strategy
• Personnel Requirements
• Data Requirements
• Support & Test
Equipment
• Technical Risk
Assessment
• Training Materials
& Equipment
• Production Breaks
• Spares
• Technical Manuals
• CAM
• Manufacturing
Screening
• Configuration Control
• Design Reviews
• Design Release
TRANSITION PLAN
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Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System
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TRIMS Baseline Templates
DESIGN
TEST
PRODUCT
TQM
FUNDING
Money
Phasing
PRODUCTION
• Design Refer. Mission Profile • Integrated Test
FACILITIES
• Manufacturing Plan
• Modernization
• Failure Reporting
System
• Qualify Manufacturing
Process
• Factory
Improvements
• Design Policy
• Uniform Test
Report
• Piece Part Control
• Productivity
Center
• Design Process
• Software Test
• Design Analysis
• Design Limit
• Parts & Mater. Selection
• Life
• Software Design
• Test, Analyze &
Fix (TAAF)
• Design Requirements
• Trade Studies
•
Computer-Aided Design (CAD)
• Design for Testing
• Built-In Test (BIT)
• Configuration Control
• Design Reviews
• Design Release
• Field Feedback
• Subcontractor Control
• Defect Control
• Tool Planning
• Special Test
Equipment (STE)
LOGISTICS
• Logistics Support
Analysis
• Manpower &
Personnel
MANAGEMENT
• Manufacturing Strategy
• Personnel Requirements
• Data Requirements
• Support & Test
Equipment
• Technical Risk
Assessment
• Training Materials
& Equipment
• Production Breaks
• Spares
• Technical Manuals
• CAM
• Manufacturing
Screening
CAM
•Manufacturing
Screening
TRANSITION PLAN
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Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System
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TRIMS Baseline Templates
DESIGN
TEST
PRODUCT
TQM
FUNDING
Money
Phasing
PRODUCTION
• Design Refer. Mission Profile • Integrated Test
FACILITIES
• Manufacturing Plan
• Modernization
• Failure Reporting
System
• Qualify Manufacturing
Process
• Factory
Improvements
• Design Policy
• Uniform Test
Report
• Piece Part Control
• Productivity
Center
• Design Process
• Software Test
• Design Analysis
• Design Limit
• Parts & Mater. Selection
• Life
• Software Design
• Test, Analyze &
Fix (TAAF)
• Design Requirements
• Trade Studies
•
Computer-Aided Design (CAD)
• Design for Testing
• Field Feedback
• Built-In Test (BIT)
• TEMP
Development/
Execution
• Configuration Control
• Design Reviews
• Design Release
• Concept Studies & Analysis
• Bread Board Development
• Brass Board Development
• Specification Dev/Allocation/
Validation
• Design for Assembly
• Prototype Development &
Review
• Software
Simulator
Cost
Assessment
• Subcontractor Control
• Defect Control
• Tool Planning
• Field Visits/Site
Surveys
LOGISTICS
• Logistics Support
Analysis
• Manpower &
Personnel
• Manufacturing Strategy
• Personnel Requirements
• Data Requirements
• Support & Test
Equipment
• Technical Risk
Assessment
• Training Materials
& Equipment
• Production Breaks
• Special Test
Equipment (STE)
• Spares
• CAM
• Logistics Analysis
Documentation
• Manufacturing
Screening
MANAGEMENT
• Technical Manuals
• Determining Defining
Need for System
• Prepare Requirement
Documents
• Quality Assurance
• Design/Milestone
Review Planning
CAM
•Manufacturing
Screening
•Production Fabrication
•Environmental Issues
• Production Fabrication
• Make or Buy Decisions
• Environmental Issues
• Technology Base
Analysis
• Schedule & Planning
• Dim. Manuf. Sources &
Mat. Shortage (DMSMS)
New PMWS
Templates
TRANSITION PLAN
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TRIMS Tailoring
TRIMS Hierarchy
Funding
Design
User
Added
Templates
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Test
Production
Facilities
Management
Logistics
Transition
Plan
3 Tiers: Category
User
Added
Questions
User
Added
Categories
Template
Knowledge
Base
Question
Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System
4.0 Design
4.6 Design Analysis
4.6.1 Do the contractor's corporate
standards identify design analysis as
an integral part of the design
process?
24
TRIMS Tailoring
User
Created
Model
3 Tiers: Category
Template
Knowledge
Base
Question
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Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System
4.0 Design
4.6 Design Analysis
4.6.1 Do the contractor's corporate
standards identify design analysis as
an integral part of the design
process?
25
Tailoring TRIMS To Your Needs
• Identify Risks Before they Become Problems
• Build YOUR Knowledge into TRIMS
– Use the Systems Engineering Knowledge Base as a Starting Point for
A Good Engineering Process
• Create a Concrete, Repeatable Process for Evaluating &
Comparing Programs & Contractors
• Ease the Learning Curve for New Employees
• Retain Knowledge of Lost Employees
• Share Knowledge
• To Maximize Benefits of Using TRIMS
– Apply as Early as Possible in Program Life
– Apply to All Subcontractors, Divisions & Vendors Involved
– Use Tool Regularly to Prioritize Resources & Make Decisions
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TRIMS Knowledge Models
• Existing (Released) Models
–
–
–
–
Systems Engineering
Software Risk Engineering (Carnegie Mellon)
Circuit Card Testability
Interoperability and Integration
• Existing (Beta) Models
– Human Factors Engineering
• Development (Prototype) Models
– Management
– Port Security/Force Protection
– SBIR ◄ ◄ ◄
TRIMS Has Many Applications
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TRIMS Version 4
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TRIMS - Total Risk Management
3
P RM
Problem, Product & Process
Risk Management,
in a Single Tool!
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Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System
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Conclusion
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How To Get Help Using TRIMS
• Use the Help menus
• Use the Computer-Based Training (CBT) Videos
– Available on PMWS CD and on BMP’s Website
– These are Animated & Narrated Tours Showing Each Step of
Using TRIMS
• Call our 24 Hour Helpdesk 301-405-9963
• E-Mail the BMP Center at helpdesk@bmpcoe.org
• Arrange a Training Session
Help Is Available
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3 Things To Remember…
• DoD 4245.7-M / NAVSO P-6071
– The Transition from Development to Production
– The Best Practices Book
• TRIMS
– Free Tool
– P3RM – Supports Problem, Product, and Process Risk Tracking!
• BMP Enterprise / BMP Center of Excellence
– An Available Resource – www.bmpcoe.org
– Call our 24 Hour Helpdesk 301-405-9963
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[ End of Presentation ]