Ticker: JNJ Sector: Health Care Industry: Drug Manufacturers Major Recommendation: HOLD Recommendation: HOLD Pricing Closing Price 52-wk High 52-wk Low $60.72 (09/25/09) $69.97 (09/25/08) $46.25 (03/09/09) Market Data Market Cap Total Assets Trading Vol. $167.5B $84.91B 11.3M (3mon avg.) Valuation EPS (ttm) P/E (ttm) Div Yield $4.55 13.34 3.20% Profitability & Effectiveness (ttm) ROA 15.98% ROE 30.32% Profit Margin 20.31% Oper Margin 26.29% Gross Margin 70.80% Daniel Parmar hdpt3c@mail.missouri.edu We currently have 600 shares of JNJ, and I recommend we hold them. Johnson and Johnson has a diverse revenue base, a robust research pipeline and exceptional cash-flow generation that together create a wide economic moat. Its diverse health care segments insulate the company from downturns in the economy and provide stability to the portfolio. The company also has good growth potential as their entire spectrum of products should benefit from the growing percentage of the aging population. Based on my analysis, I believe that Johnson & Johnson are a bit undervalued right now. The stock is currently trading at $60, and as per my analysis, the intrinsic value per share is around $66.79. Though the company faces patent losses upto 10% of its sales in 2009, growth from its remaining product lines will help offset these. In addition, recent acquisitions like Omrix Biopharmaceuticals (Dec. 2008) and Mentor (Jan. 2009) will help broaden and strengthen JNJ's presence in the global biosurgical and esthetic product markets. These new acquisitions are part of JNJ's strategy to diversify into new long-term opportunities in the face of challenging prospects in drugs. Ongoing cost restructurings within the company augur well for the future. I believe that the investment risk is low because JNJ has products that are largely immune from economic cycles, has modest reliance on any single product category or customer for sustained growth, and enjoys competitive advantages owning to its large financial resources, business scale and global capabilities. In addition, it is only of 5 U.S companies to hold a Triple-A ranking from Standard & Poor's Ratings Service. COMPANY PROFILE Johnson & Johnson ranks as one of the world’s largest and most diversified health care firms. The company is also a major participant in the global consumer products business, and, in December 2006, purchased the consumer products unit of Pfizer for $16.6 billion. Johnson & Johnson has over 250 operating companies selling products across the globe. Despite its size, JNJ is highly innovative and seeks to maintain leadership positions by aggressively funding new product development. R&D spending in 2008 totaled $7.6 billion, representing 11.9% of sales. Due to its size and diversification, JNJ divides its business into three segments: Pharmaceuticals, Consumer Health Care, and Medical Devices and Diagnostics. PHARMACEUTICAL: This segment includes products in the therapeutic areas, such as anti-infective, antipsychotic, cardiovascular, contraceptive, dermatology, gastrointestinal, hematology, immunology, neurology, oncology, pain management, urology and virology. These products are distributed directly to retailers, wholesalers and health care professionals for prescription use by the general public. Contributing 38.5% of total revenue, the pharmaceutical division boasts several industryleading drugs. In addition to the existing product lines, R&D efforts are resulting in next-generation products. The pharmaceutical group has a robust late-stage product pipeline with more than 10 potential blockbusters in late-stage development. During the financial year 2008, the pharmaceutical segment recorded revenues of $24,567 million, a decrease of 1.2% over FY2007. Pharmaceutical segment sales in 2008 were $24.6 billion, a decrease of 1.2% over 2007. U.S. Pharmaceutical segment sales were $14.9 billion, a decrease of 4.9%. International Pharma segment sales were $9.7 billion, an increase of 5.1%. In addition to the existing product lines, R&D efforts are resulting in next-generation products. The pharmaceutical group has a robust late-stage product pipeline with more than 10 potential blockbusters in late-stage development. CONSUMER HEALTH CARE: The consumer segment primarily sells personal care products, including nonprescription drugs, adult skin and hair care products, baby care products, oral care products, first aid products, women's health products, and nutritional products. Major brands include Band-Aid Brand Adhesive Bandages, Imodium A-D antidiarrheal, Johnson's Baby line of products, Neutrogena skin and hair care products, and Tylenol pain reliever. The consumer health care segment contributed 25.5% of total revenue in 2008. Consumer segment sales in 2008 were $16.0 billion, an increase of 10.8% over 2007 with 8.3% of this change due to operational growth and the remaining 2.5% due to positive currency fluctuations. U.S. Consumer segment sales were $6.9 billion, an increase of 8.3%. International sales were $9.1 billion, an increase of 12.8%. MEDICAL DEVICES AND DIAGNOSTICS: The medical devices and diagnostics segment sells a wide range of products, including Ethicon's wound care, surgical sports medicine and women's health care products; Cordis's circulatory disease management products; Lifescan's blood glucose monitoring products; Ortho-Clinical Diagnostic's professional diagnostic products; Depuy's orthopaedic joint reconstruction and spinal products; and Vistakon's disposable contact lenses. This segment contributed 36.3% of total revenue in FY 2008. The Medical Devices and Diagnostics segment achieved sales of $23.1 billion in 2008, representing an increase of 6.4% over the prior year. U.S. sales were $10.5 billion, an increase of 1.0%. International sales were $12.6 billion, an increase of 11.3%. These multiple business lines generate substantial cash flow. Johnson & Johnson's healthy free cash flow is close to 20% of sales. Strong cash generation has enabled the firm to increase its dividend for the past 45 years and take advantage of acquisition opportunities. Diverse operating segments, coupled with expected new products insulate JNJ from the R&D cycle facing the pharmaceutical group. While the company faces more than $6.3 billion in patent exposure through 2009, strong growth from the remaining business lines are expected to offset these losses and yield slight growth over the next two years. After 2009, the company's patent exposure is greatly reduced, setting JNJ up for steady growth. The U.S, Johnson & Johnson's largest geographical market, accounted for 50.7% of the total revenues in FY2008. Revenues from the US reached $32,309 million in 2008, a decrease of 0.4% over FY2007. Europe accounted for 26.3% of the total revenues in FY2008. Revenues from Europe reached $16,782 million in 2008, an increase of 7.3% over FY2007. Asia-Pacific and Africa accounted for 14.9% of the total revenues in FY2008. Revenues from Asia-Pacific, Africa reached $9,483 million in 2008, an increase of 13.9% over FY2007. INDUSTRY OUTLOOK The pharmaceuticals industry, like the broader health care industry, faces uncertainty in the face of health care reform. Along with weakness in the overall economy, the sector faces a tough regulatory environment, including proposed drug price discounting in the Medicare and Medicaid programs. Despite the outlook not being very positive for the sector overall, companies with well defined growth prospects and a strong, diversified product base should hold up relatively well. In addition, increased M&A activity in the sector has also increased confidence among investors. Pharmaceuticals also remains one of the widest-margin U.S. industries. Long-term prospects look to be enhanced by demographic growth in the elderly (which account for about 33% of industry sales), and new products stemming from discoveries in biotechnology. COMPETITOR COMPARISON Ratio JNJ Eli Lilly Novartis P&G Industry Market Cap. 167.47B 37.29B 110.82B 167.11B 123.78B EPS 4.55 -1.48 3.34 4.26 - P/E 13.35 14.65 14.7 13.44 14.34 Current Ratio 1.78 1.56 1.77 0.71 3.32 Debt/Equity 29.44 90.19 27.47 58.59 14.6 ROA 15.98 -5.16 9.59 10.24 0.76 ROE 30.22 -21.2 14.39 17.62 1.35 Profit Margin 20.31 -10.17 19.77 17 0.55 Operating Margin 26.29% 30.37% 21.44% 20.40% 9.21% Revenue 61.37B 20.76B 42.05B 79.03B 198.8M Net Income 12.94B (1.62B) 7.57B 11.10B - SWOT ANALYSIS STRENGTHS Diverse business offering J&J represents one of the most diverse healthcare companies in terms of its pharmaceutical, medical devices and consumer healthcare offerings, mainly due to its large Medical Devices & Diagnostics and Consumer Health divisions. This diversification reduces the company's dependence upon any one area, and is set to broaden further. Additionally, with a presence in a wider number of areas, J&J can choose to expand those that offer the greatest growth prospects, rather than being limited to just one or two areas of expertise. Growth forecast despite challenges Prescription pharmaceuticals represent J&J's largest business and across 2009-13, almost all of its key products face a decline in sales. Despite this significant hurdle, pharma revenue is forecast to grow overall across the period. This is a result of the impressive number of new launches forecast to occur. While the ultimate success or failure of these efforts will only become clear by 2010, with the shortfall in sales expected to be overcome, investment can be directed more towards longer-term growth strategies, rather than off-setting losses. Significant sales and marketing capabilities J&J is strengthened by its large, global sales force. The company consists of a diverse range of subsidiaries, which together possess expertise across a number of therapy areas. With significant sales and marketing capabilities, J&J represents an attractive marketing partner. As such, this will facilitate further in-licensing deals, and also ensure that the company maximizes returns from existing agreements. Robust financial position J&J has maintained a healthy balance sheet by funding significant acquisitions primarily through cash rather than stock issue or burdensome levels of debt. It is highly cash generative and is currently one of the few US companies to have a Triple-A credit rating. As such, despite having invested heavily in recent acquisitions, J&J will still be in a position to take advantage of any additional opportunities WEAKNESSES High reliance upon small molecule drugs, increasing exposure to generic erosion J&J has a high reliance upon small molecule drugs. Compared to biologics, small molecules are notably more impacted by generic competition. As such, although the company may generate new 'blockbuster' small molecule products, when coming off-patent these products face sharp declines. This is particularly the case in the US, where generic erosion rates are most aggressive. Until 2003-13, J&J's small molecule drug sales are forecast to maintain growth. This concern is reflected across the pharmaceutical industry. Finding replacements for billion dollar products as they mature represents an increasingly difficult task. OPPORTUNITIES Leverage coverage of Medical Devices & Diagnostics and Consumer Health divisions In terms of total revenue, J&J's business is relatively equally split between its Pharmaceutical, Medical Devices & Diagnostics and Consumer Health divisions. Through new products and services or by bringing together existing ones, J&J could provide a more efficient coverage of certain diseases. The CV, oncology, diabetes, and I&I therapy areas were given as examples where the company could potentially become involved along the entire life-cycle of disease. This would result in closer links with both patients and caregivers, giving rise to cross-selling opportunities. Expand experience in biologics J&J is experienced in the development and commercialization of biologics including the therapeutic proteins, Procrit Natrecor, Remicade, etc. The sharp decline facing the company's key small molecule drugs highlights its exposure to generic erosion. Looking forward, the addition of further biologics to its portfolio would potentially buffer subsequent small molecule patent expiries. Moreover, with traditional sources of finance becoming scarcer and the market capitalization of many biotech companies at relative lows, J&J could use this opportunity to gain key IP or strengthen its discovery capabilities. THREATS Failure of launch portfolio to deliver Against the significant decline of its aging expiry portfolio, J&J will be primarily dependent upon launch products for growth. The company has an impressive pipeline, with at least 15 new launches forecast, lifting 2013 sales by $6.7 billion. Since launch products are typically associated with the uncertainty of regulatory review and uptake in the market may ultimately differ from forecast, this reliance upon launch products potentially represents a threat to J&J's outlook. With launches largely set to occur in the near-term, by 2010 the fate of the launch portfolio and thus, the company as a whole, should have been significantly de-risked. By this time, regulatory decisions will have been made and initial prescription trends will have become apparent. FINANCIAL TRENDS Johnson & Johnson's commitment to innovative health care products has resulted in consistent financial performance. J&J has a strong financial track record including: - 75 consecutive years of Sales increases - 46 consecutive years of Dividend increases, and - 25 consecutive years of Adjusted Earnings increases. J&J is one of only five U.S corporations to have a Triple-A rating. This helps them borrow money at a lower cost than competitors, especially at a time when borrowing is more expensive. J&J’s healthy free cash flow is close to 20% of sales. During 2008, the company generated some $12.2 billion in cash flow after capital expenditures. $15 billion of cash was generated from operating activities. The company anticipates that operating cash flows and existing credit facilities will provide sufficient resources to fund operating needs in 2009. Johnson & Johnson is in a strong financial position. The company recorded revenues of $63.7 billion during the FY2008, an increase of 4.3% over FY2007. The increase was primarily due to higher sales of OTC pharmaceuticals, nutritional, and skin care products. The operating profit of the company was $15.9 billion during FY2008, an increase of 17% over FY2007. The net profit was $12.9 billion in FY2008, an increase of 22.4% over FY2007. The company is implementing a $10 billion share-repurchase program, signaling management's confidence in the stock. Pretax savings from cost cutting and restructuring operations totaled $1.6 billion in 2008. Sales and net income have been consistently growing too, as the graph shows. Even through the recent recession, J&J was able to achieve growth in Sales and Net Income. Though U.S sales were a bit sluggish, percentage increases in other parts of the globe helped the company's sales and net income grow. This illustrates how the company's diversification and global reach are great competitive advantages. STOCK PERFORMANCE As the charts show, J&J has performed well when the S&P was down and not as well when the broader markets were performing well. The stock provides a defensive growth opportunity during downturns in the economy. YTD, the stock has lagged behind the S&P, but has performed better than its close competitor, Novartis. 5 YEAR STOCK PERFORMANCE VS. S&P500 AND NOVARTIS YTD STOCK PERFORMANCE VS. S&P500 AND NOVARTIS VALUATION: I used the Owner Earnings model to find the intrinsic value of Johnson & Johnson. I calculated the discount rate taking the risk free rate, beta, and the market risk premium. I used an average beta of .60, a risk-free rate of .198 and a market return of 11%. Using these numbers, the discount rate works out to be: K= 0.00198+0.60(0.11-0.00198) = 6.7% However, this discount rate was too low, so I assumed a rate of 11%. I used a conservative growth rate of 3% for this year, and a higher growth rate of 4% for the next four years through 2014. I believe that J&J's annual growth will average around 4% from strong expected growth in new pipeline drugs and a steady expansion in consumer health care, offsetting patent challenges in the pharma division. Considering the uncertainty surrounding the broader health care industry, I stuck with a conservative 3% growth rate for the rest of the 10-year period and for the second stage. Using these numbers, the intrinsic value works out to be $66.79. Since the stock is currently trading at $60.72 (as on 09/25/09), I believe that J&J is undervalued. Though this might seem a good stock to buy right now, the uncertainly in the industry and the fact that we are looking to reduce our exposure to healthcare make me recommend a Hold. Below is a sensitivity analysis showing the intrinsic value at different discount and growth rates: Discount Rate 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 3% 73.25 64.69 58.06 52.76 48.44 44.85 5% 84.7 74.41 66.45 60.11 54.95 50.67 First Stage Growth 7% 98.02 85.69 76.16 68.6 62.45 57.35 9% 113.49 98.75 87.39 78.37 71.06 65.02 11% 131.44 113.87 100.34 89.63 80.96 73.8 INTRINSIC VALUE CALCULATION: Two-Stage Discounted Free Cash Flow Valuation Model assuming discount rate (k) of Free Cash Flow ("owner earnings") in 2009: Net Income Depreciation & Amortization Average Capital Expenditures (subtract) Free Cash Flow (Owner Earnings) 11.00% $ $ $ $ FIRST STAGE Prior Year Free Cash Flow First Stage Growth Rate Free Cash Flow Discounted Value per annum $ $ Sum of present value of owner earnings 12,949,000,000.00 2,832,000,000.00 (2,696,000,000.00) 13,085,000,000.00 Year: 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 13,085,000,000.0 $ 13,477,550,000.0 $ 14,016,652,000.0 $ 14,577,318,080.0 $ 15,160,410,803.2 $ 15,766,827,235.3 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 13,477,550,000.0 $ 14,016,652,000.0 $ 14,577,318,080.0 $ 15,160,410,803.2 $ 15,766,827,235.3 $ 16,239,832,052.4 $13,477,550,000.0 $12,627,614,414.4 $11,831,278,370.3 $11,085,161,716.3 $10,386,097,463.9 $9,637,549,898.9 $101,132,300,848.7 SECOND STAGE Residual Value Free Cash Flow in year 10 Second Stage Growth Rate (g) (add) Free Cash Flow in year 11 Capitalization rate (k-g) Value at end of year 10 Present Value of Residual Intrinsic Value of Company Shares outstanding assuming dilution Intrinsic Value per share $ $ $ 18,278,074,047.9 3.00% 18,826,416,269.3 8.00% 235,330,203,366.49 $82,879,645,012.52 $184,011,945,861.24 2755000000 $66.79 2016 2017 2018 2019 $ 16,239,832,052.4 $ 16,727,027,014.0 $ 17,228,837,824.4 $ 17,745,702,959.1 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% $ 16,727,027,014.0 $ 17,228,837,824.4 $ 17,745,702,959.1 $ 18,278,074,047.9 $8,942,951,708.0 $8,298,414,648.0 $7,700,330,709.4 $7,145,351,919.5 RESOURCES USED 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. www.jnj.com www.wsj.com www.reuters.com www.morningstar.com www.cnbc.com Standard & Poor’s Stock Reports Dow Jones Stock Reports