PIPELINE QRA SEMINAR
PIPELINE RISK ASSESSMENT
INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL
RISK MANAGEMENT
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WHAT IS RISK?
Definition (ISO 3100:2009)
“effect of uncertainty on objectives”
where
“effect is a deviation from the expected”
“objectives can have different aspects (such as financial,
health and safety and environmental) and can apply at
different levels (such as strategic, organization-wide and
project)”
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WHAT IS RISK?
Addition to definition (ISO 3100:2009)
“risk is often characterized by reference to potential events
and consequences, or a combination of these”
and
“risk is often expressed in terms of a combination of the
consequences of an event (including changes in
circumstances) and the associated likelihood of occurrence”
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WHAT IS RISK?
Definition (Wikipedia)
“the potential of losing something of value, weighed
against the potential to gain something of value”
and
Definition (Oxford Dictionary)
“expose (someone or something valued) to danger, harm,
or loss”
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WHAT IS RISK?
Definition (popular)
“opposite of chance”
Definition (popular)
“the possibility that something unpleasant or unwelcome
will happen”
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WHAT IS RISK?
What is a risk in the everyday life?
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WHAT IS RISK?
What is actually a risk in the everyday life?
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WHAT IS RISK PERCEPTION?
Definition (Wikipedia)
“the subjective judgment that people make about the
characteristics and severity of a risk”
•
19 per 100.000 deaths from driving
•
< 0.5 per 100.000 deaths from flying
•
268 per 100.000 deaths from cardiovascular diseases
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RISK PERCEPTION
•
Harrisburg nuclear power accident (Three Mile Island,
USA) in 1979
•
Swedish voting on nuclear power in 1981
•
The answer – no (phase out the nuclear power)
•
Chernobyl nuclear power accident (Chernobyl, Ukraine)
in 1986
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Today – yes (build new nuclear power)
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INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL RISK
MANAGEMENT
Definition (ISO 3100:2009)
“systematic application of management policies,
procedures and practices to the activities of
communicating, consulting, establishing the context, and
identifying, analysing, evaluating, treating, monitoring and
reviewing risk”
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INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL RISK
MANAGEMENT
Definition (Wikipedia)
“risk management is an umbrella for the activities of
systematic identifying, analysing and preventing different
kind of risks”
Definition (Oxford Dictionary)
“the forecasting and evaluation of risks together with the
identification of procedures to avoid or minimize their
impact”
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INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL RISK
MANAGEMENT
“by establishing the context, the organization articulates its
objectives, defines the external and internal parameters to
be taken into account when managing risk, and sets the
scope and risk criteria for the remaining process”
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INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL RISK
MANAGEMENT
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Define the scope of work (i.e. purpose)
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Define the system (e.g. single pipeline, company or pipeline
network)
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Collect data (i.e. detailed information)
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Divide responsibilities (e.g. stakeholders, organization and
involvement)
•
Establish risk acceptance criteria (i.e. what is tolerable)
•
Identify the requirements (i.e. laws and standards)
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INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL RISK
MANAGEMENT
“risk assessment is the overall process of risk identification,
risk analysis and risk evaluation”
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INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL RISK
MANAGEMENT
“identify sources of risk, areas of impacts, events
(including changes in circumstances) and their causes and
their potential consequences”
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INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL RISK
MANAGEMENT
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Qualitative exercise
•
Starting-point of the risk assessment
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Thorough (i.e. what is missed is being left out)
•
Risk of doing something – risk of not doing something
•
Operational risk (frequent) – emergency risk (rare)
•
Method depending on the situation (e.g. complexity,
stage of project and time)
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Separate presentation on risk identification
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INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL RISK
MANAGEMENT
“consideration of the causes and sources of risk, their
positive and negative consequences, and the likelihood that
those consequences can occur”
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INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL RISK
MANAGEMENT
•
One step further – more thorough analyse of the risks
that has been identified
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Understanding causes and consequences
•
Analysing causes and consequences
-Likelihood of the causes/consequences
-Severity of the consequences
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INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL RISK
MANAGEMENT
“comparing the level of risk found during the analysis
process with risk criteria established”
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INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL RISK
MANAGEMENT
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End-point of the risk assessment
•
To be able to say whether the risk is acceptable or not
•
Risk acceptance criterion established by companies
(internal), organizations (external) and/or authorities
(external)
•
Base for decision-making
•
Separate presentation on risk acceptance criterion
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INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL RISK
MANAGEMENT
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Focus of the presentations and activities this week
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Qualitative versus quantitative risk assessment
•
What is a QRA?
•
Separate presentation on qualitative and quantitative
risk assessment
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QUESTIONS?
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INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL RISK
MANAGEMENT
“selecting one or more options for modifying risks, and
implementing those options”
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INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL RISK
MANAGEMENT
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Depending on the outcome of the risk evaluation
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Decision-making (i.e. to take mitigating actions or not decision could also be to not proceed - showstopper)
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Mitigating actions (risk reducing measures) influencing
the frequency or consequence of the risk
•
Given the implementation of risk reducing measure – is
the residual risk tolerable?
•
Separate presentation on risk reducing measures
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INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL RISK
MANAGEMENT
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Throughout the risk management process communication
and consultation with internal and external stakeholders
are needed
•
Stakeholder is someone with an interest or concern in the
organization (e.g. authority for legal compliance,
employee or board of the company)
•
Understanding of the process and accountability for
carrying out implementations or spreading the
information from the risk management process
•
Chain not stronger than the weakest link - common goal!
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INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL RISK
MANAGEMENT
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Risk management should be a continuous process!
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Organizational learning (incident – accident)
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Identification of changes (e.g. introduction of new risks
from operation and technical details or changes to
context and/or legal requirements)
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INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL RISK
MANAGEMENT
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Overall principles of risk management
- Part of the organizational processes
- Part of the decision making
- Structured and systematic
- Based on the best available information (e.g. statistics,
experience and forecasts)
- Transparent and inclusive (i.e. communication and
consultation)
- Dynamic and responsive to change (i.e. monitoring and
review)
- Facilitates continual improvement of the organization
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INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL RISK
MANAGEMENT
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Why do we do risk management?
- Establish a reliable base for decision making and planning
- Effectively allocate resources for risk reducing measures
- Improve loss prevention
- Improve organizational learning (incident – accident)
- Enhance health and safety performance
- Encourage proactive management of risks
- Introduce awareness of risk in the organization
- Comply with relevant requirements (best practice and legal)
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INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL RISK
MANAGEMENT
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Now that we understand what is included in the risk
management process - where could the risk
management process be applicable?
-Projects
-Investments
-Design
-Companies (enterprises)
-Companies (production – supply chain)
-Authorities (natural hazards and emergency response)
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INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL RISK
MANAGEMENT
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Paper-exercise (i.e. to achieve a standard) versus
actually benefits (i.e. improvements)
•
Similarities to overall safety culture (e.g. lack of safety
culture and/or understanding of this)
•
Not just one time - never-ending process
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INTRODUCTION TO GENERAL RISK
MANAGEMENT
•
Paper-exercise (i.e. to achieve a standard) versus
actually benefits (i.e. improvements)
•
Similarities to overall safety culture (e.g. lack of safety
culture and/or understanding of this)
•
Not just one time - never-ending process
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QUESTIONS?
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