CHAPTER 4
PRINCIPAL STAGES IN THE URBAN
TRANSPORTATION PLANNING
PROCESS
STUDY OBJECTIVES
At the end of this chapter students will be expected to be able
to define, where applicable and explain each of the
following elements and stages in the urban transportation
planning process:
 travel demand forecasting;
 the formulation of goals and objectives;
 the collection of basic data;
 the establishment of quantifiable relationships between
movement and land use;
 trip generation;
 the prediction of future land-use, populations and
economic characteristics;
STUDY OBJECTIVES cont’
The preparation of a land use plan;
predictions of future origins, destinations and the
distribution of person movements;
trip distribution;
the estimation of future person movements
carried by different modes of travel;
network planning;
the assignment of future trips to the proposed
transport networks etc.
4.1 INTRODUCTION
4.1.1 TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING AND THE
TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS.
• The three stages [basic framework] essential
to any transportation planning process:
i. A survey and analysis stage which
establishes the present demand for
movement and how this is met, and the
relationships between this demand for
movement and the urban environment;
4.1.1 TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING AND THE
TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS cont’
ii. A prediction and plan formulation stage,
which projects for some future date the
likely travel demand, based on the data
collected and the relationship established in
the survey and analysis stage, and puts
forward proposals to meet this demand.
4.1.1 TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING AND THE
TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS cont’
iii. An evaluation stage which attempts to
assess whether the transportation proposals
put forward satisfy the projected demand
for: travel with adequate safety, capacity and
levels of service to provide the maximum
benefits to the community with minimum
costs.
4.1.1 TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING AND THE
TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS cont’
The 11 principal stages in the urban
transportation planning process are:
1. Explicitly formulating goals and objectives;
2. Collecting land-use, population, economic
and travel pattern data for the present day
situations;
3. Establishing quantifiable relationships
between present-day movements and the
land-use, population and economic factors;
4.1.1 TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING AND THE
TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS cont’
4. Predicting land-use, population and economic
factors to the target date for the study and the
development of a land-use plan(s);
5. Predicting the origins, destinations and
distribution of the future movement
demands, using the relationships established
for the present day situation and the
predicted land-use population and economic
factors (trip generations and trip distribution);
4.1.1 TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING AND THE
TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS cont’
6. Predicting the person movements likely to be
carried by the different modes of travel at the
target date (modal split);
7. Developing the highway and public transport
networks to fit the predicted land-use plan
and accommodate the estimated pattern of
movements.
4.1.1 TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING AND THE
TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS cont’
8. Assigning predicted trips to alternative coordinated transport networks/systems (traffic
assignment);
9. Evaluating the efficiency and economic
viability of the alternative transport networks
in terms of economic and social costs and
benefits;
4.1.1 TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING AND THE
TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS cont’
10. Selecting and implementing the most
appropriate transport networks;
11. Monitoring and reviewing the chosen
transportation policies or plans.
4.1.7 ESTIMATIONS OF FUTURE PERSON
MOVEMENTS CARRIED BY
DIFFERENT MODES OF TRAVEL
Factors that affect an individual’s choice of
mode of transport for a particular journey are:
• income,
• the availability and convenience of alternative
modes of transport and
• length of journey
4.1.11 THE SELECTION OF A BALANCED
TRANSPORT SYSTEM
• The decision as to which transport system best
serves the needs of the community cannot be
made by the transportation planning process.
• The transportation planning process is
basically an aid to orderly decision-making
and not the precise instrument that some
people like to think it is.
4.2 COLLECTION OF BASIC DATA
4.2.1 INTRODUCTION
• An essential first step in any planning process
is the collection of information about the
existing situation.
4.2.1 INTRODUCTION cont’
The transportation planning process therefore
involves the accumulation of basic data i.e.:
 Characteristics of present-day travel patterns in
the area under consideration must be collected;
 The future distribution of land use and
population dispersion must be considered;
 Adequacy of existing transportation facilities
must be determined and spare capacity
estimated.
4.2.3 SUBDIVISION OF AREA INTO
TRAFFIC ZONES
• The area being surveyed is divided into zones
so as to make it intelligible, open to analysis
and suitable for the assignment of trips.
• Traffic zones are therefore the basic unit of
analysis for the transport planning process.
• Trip data should be coded to traffic zones, and
socio-economic and land-use data should be
inventoried on a zonal basis.
4.2.3 SUBDIVISION OF AREA INTO
TRAFFIC ZONES
• The zonal system is then used as a basis to
determine the origins and destinations of all
trips within the transport authority’s area.
• The size of a traffic zone is influenced by the:
1. size of the transport authority,
2. the density of population, and
3. the distribution of economic activity in the
transport authority’s area.
4.2.5 PLANNING AND ECONOMIC DATA
• Traffic is therefore a function- of activities, and is
concentrated in towns because activities are
concentrated there.
Factors that effect traffic are:
Population and employment data
Income
– the total number of cars owned;
– the number of households with nil, one and two or
more cars:
– the number of owner-occupied dwellings, councilrented dwellings,
4.2.5 PLANNING AND ECONOMIC DATA
cont’
Income cont’
– other rented dwellings furnished and unfurnished
and other dwellings;
– the socio-economic group of the chief economic
supporter of the household;
– the social class of the chief economic supporter of
the household.
4.2.5 PLANNING AND ECONOMIC DATA
cont’
Retail sales
Attendance at establishments schools,
colleges, and other educational
Other land-use data
– It has been found that both the amount and the
characteristics of travelare influenced by the
intensity of development of land.
4.3.2
FACTORS INFLUENCING TRIP
GENERATION
(A)LAND-USE FACTORS
• Land use is a convenient way of classifying
trip generating activities.
 Different uses of land produce different trip
generation characteristics.
• For example, land given over to shopping
development or offices could be expected to
generate more trips than open space.
4.3.2
FACTORS INFLUENCING TRIP GENERATION cont’
The intensity with which different activities
are pursued can produce different generation
characteristics:
For example, one acre of residential and
developed at a high density (flats) would be
likely to produce more total person
movements than one acre of land developed
for residential purposes at a low density
(houses).
4.3.2
FACTORS INFLUENCING TRIP GENERATION cont’
Land-Use can be broadly classified into 3 uses:
1. Residential land use
2. Commercial and Industrial land use
3. Educational and Recreational land use
4.3.2
FACTORS INFLUENCING TRIP GENERATION cont’
(B) THE HOME
• Family size.
– Travel is a function of human activity.
– Thus a relationship should exist between the
number and frequency of trips made from the
home and family size.
4.3.2
FACTORS INFLUENCING TRIP GENERATION cont’
• Motor vehicle ownership.
– The number of vehicles available for use by each
household influences trip generation.
• Type of dwelling unit.
– The more permanent types of dwelling unit reflect
a high degree of integration into the local
community on the part of the household and lead
to a high rate of trip generation.
4.3.2
FACTORS INFLUENCING TRIP GENERATION cont’
• Occupied residents.
– The occupation of the head of the household is
one of the major indicators of the standard of
living enjoyed by the family and reflects to a
certain extent the family income.
• Family income.
– The ability to pay for a journey affects the number
of trips generated by a household.
– Family income tends to be related to levels of
motor vehicle ownership.
4.5 MODAL SPLITMODAL CHOICE
4.5.1 INTRODUCTION
• Trip-makers can select between several travel
modes.
• These may include driving, riding with
someone else, taking the bus, walking, riding a
motorcycle etc.
• A modal choice or modal split model is
concerned with the trip-makers behaviour
regarding the selection of travel mode.
4.5.1 INTRODUCTION cont’
• Assumption for this model: of a given total
travel demand the proportion carried by bus,
taxi, railway or private motor car will depend
on the standing of each mode of transport in
relation to its competitors.
4.5.1 INTRODUCTION cont’
The measure of competitiveness is usually
derived from an analysis of three sets of
factors:
i. Characteristics of the journey to be made,
o
e.g. length, time of day the journey is made,
purpose of the journey;
4.5.1 INTRODUCTION cont’
ii. Characteristics of the person making the
journey
o
e.g. car-ownership, income, social standing:
iii. Characteristics of the transportation system
o
e.g. travel time involved, costs, and accessibility,
comfort.
4.5.1 INTRODUCTION cont’
• In estimating modal choice, trip makers should be
treated as two separate groups
• (i) captive public transport users who do not
have access to a car for the particular trip under
study: and
• (ii) choice public transport users who are in a
position to choose whether to use car or public
transport for a particular journey.
• Income, sex, and age are the three main factors in
determining ‘captive’ or ‘choice’ status.
4.5.2
FACTORS INFLUENCING MODAL CHOICE
Factors the influences modal choice are:
(A)CHARACTERISTICS OF THE JOURNEY
– Journey length
– Journey purpose
4.5.2
FACTORS INFLUENCING MODAL CHOICE cont’
(B)CHARACTERISTICS OF THE TRAVELLER
– Socio-economic characteristics of the households:
income;
– car ownership;
– family size and structure:
– density of residential development
– type of job undertaken; and
– the location of workplace.
4.5.2
FACTORS INFLUENCING MODAL CHOICE cont’
(C) CHARACTERISTICS OF THE TRANSPORTATION
SYSTEM
– Relative travel time
– Relative travel cost
– Relative level of service
– Accessibility indices
4.6.2
NETWORK PLANNING
Two basic alternative modes of public transport
are generally examined in the development of
alternative public transport networks.
1. Firstly, rapid mass transit (e.g. underground
or suburban railways) and
2. secondly the motor bus.
4.6.4
DIVERSION CURVES IN TRAFFIC
ASSIGNMENT
• For any trip from one zone to another there
are usually several alternative routes for the
person making the trip.
• Each route has its own ‘travel resistance’
based on its distance, travel time, speed and
level of service.
• These characteristics are evaluated by the
driver before choosing a particular route.
4.6.4
DIVERSION CURVES IN TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT
cont’
• A route with a high travel resistance (e.g. a
busy urban street with bus stops, parked cars,
intersections and pedestrians), will be used by
less drivers than a comparable route with low
travel resistance.
4.7 EVALUATION OF TRANSPORTATION
PROPOSALS
4.7.1 INTRODUCTION
• The evaluation stage of the transport planning
process attempts to assess whether the
transportation proposals put forward satisfy
the projected demand for travel with
adequate safety capacity and levels of service
to provide the maximum benefits to the
community with minimum costs.
4.7.1 INTRODUCTION cont’
• Evaluation involves the assessment of the
comparative merits of different courses of
action.
• Thus it is concerned with analysing a number
of alternative plans or projects in order to
identify systematically and logically their
comparative advantages (benefits) and
disadvantages (costs).
4.7.2
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS DEFINED
A number of different methods are used to
evaluate proposals for development. The most
important methods include:
1. Financial appraisal,
– Concerned with estimating the future streams of
capital and operating costs and revenues resulting
from the implementation of investment projects;
4.7.2
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS DEFINED cont’
2. Check list of criteria,
– whereby alternative proposals are ranked
subjectively, in order, in relation to a number of
specified criteria;
3. Goals achievement analysis,
– where the extent to which alternative proposals
will achieve a predetermined set of goals and
objectives is determined;
4.7.2
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS DEFINED cont’
4. Costs in use
– which estimates both private and public capital
and operating costs involved in urban
developments;
5. Threshold analysis
– where the capital and operating costs of location
sare investigated and crucial thresholds in
relation to the scale of development and the
provision of services are identified;
4.7.2
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS DEFINED cont’
6. Cost-benefit analysis,
– where the social worth of public sector projects
is appraised
7. Planning balance sheet analysis,
– which is a particular application of the costbenefit analysis approach.
4.7.2
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS DEFINED cont’
• Large-scale transportation proposals are
usually assessed by means of a cost-benefit
analysis, which aims to compare the costs and
benefits associated with alternative schemes.
4.7.2 COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS
DEFINED
• Cost-benefit analysis is a practical way of
assessing the desirability of projects, where it is
important to take
• the long view
– in the sense of looking at repercussions in the further,
as well as the nearer, future and
• a wide view
– in the sense of allowing for side effects of many kinds
on many persons, industries, regions,
– i.e. it implies the specification and evaluation of all the
relevant costs and benefits.
4.7.2
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS DEFINED cont’
Thus; a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis
should include the following:
(i) Financial assessment - to determine a
project’s need for funds and also whether the
project is viable from a financial point of view:
4.7.2
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS DEFINED cont’
(ii) Economic analysis - to determine the scarcity
value of goods and services used in the
project and arising from the project (based
mainly on opportunity-cost considerations):
(iii) Social analysis - to determine the effect of
the project on the distribution of welfare and
other social circumstances.
4.7.6 - PROCEDURE FOR THE
APPLICATION OF COST-BENEFIT
ANALYSIS
(D) IDENTIFICATION AND QUANTIFICATION OF
SOCIAL IMPACTS
The following social consequences of a project
should be addressed:
1. Distributional effects between income
groups, population groups or geographical
groups;
2. Welfare consequences:
3. Political and constitutional implications;
4.7.6 PROCEDURE FOR THE APPLICATION OF
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS cont’
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Strategic consequences;
Prestige;
The creation of job opportunities;
The achievement of economic independence;
Population movements.
4.7.6 PROCEDURE FOR THE APPLICATION OF
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS cont’
(G) RECOMMENDATION AND COMPLETION OF
THE REPORT, SUMMARY AND SUMMARISING
TABLE
The summary, to give the decision-maker an
overview of the most important aspects of the
analysis, should cover the following:
i. An introduction;
4.7.6 PROCEDURE FOR THE APPLICATION OF
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS cont’
ii. The project identification including the
determination of the need and the technical
solutions;
iii. An explanation of the aim of the analysis,
–
i.e. to identify the financial, economic and social
implications of the alternatives in order to
identify the best alternative
4.7.6 PROCEDURE FOR THE APPLICATION OF
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS cont’
iv. An explanation of any considerations that
may lead to the elimination of any of the
alternatives,
–
for example strategic or political implications or
legal restrictions;
v. The result
–
which include the financial and economic results
and the social, welfare, political, constitutional
and strategic consequences;
4.7.6 PROCEDURE FOR THE APPLICATION OF
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS cont’
vi. Sensitivity and critical considerations,
–
e.g. an explanation that the success of the
project may depend on the completion and/or
success of another project of projects;
vii. A well-thought out and reasonable
recommendation.
4.8.2 ASPECTS OF TRANSPORT SYSTEM
PERFORMANCE
The performance of a transport system has four
main aspects, i.e.:
(A) EFFICIENCY
– Efficiency is concerned with the operational
aspects of the system i.e. the consumption of
resources (e.g. labour, energy, money) and
measures the performance of the system from the
operator’s point of view.
4.8.2 ASPECTS OF TRANSPORT SYSTEM
PERFORMANCE cont’
(B) EFFECTIVENESS
– Effectiveness is concerned with the performance
of the transport system within its external
environment i.e. from the users’ point of view
(C) EQUITY, FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE
– individuals are treated in a like manner by the
governent or transport authority in terms of
funding, the distribution of benefits,
compensation and who pays the costs of providing
transport.
4.8.2 ASPECTS OF TRANSPORT SYSTEM
PERFORMANCE cont’
(D) ACCESSIBILITY
– Indicators of the accessibility to opportunities
(jobs, shops, recreational facilities, medical care,
etc.) usually include door-to-door travel time and
the amount of activity (or opportunities) at the
specific location.
4.9 SUMMARY
In summary then, the initial core activities of a basic
transport plan include:
 A description of the existing transport situation
(status quo):
 A description of mobility needs (which may
include a detailed demand or market analysis):
 The preparation of a spatial framework:
 A travel demand estimation (based on selected
future, scenarios):
4.9 SUMMARY cont’
The development of a vision of desired future
conditions, as well as goals and objectives to
be achieved with the implementation of the
transport plan:
A statement of duly adopted policies and how
they address relevant local, provincial and
national goals and objectives:
The setting of transport standards for both
Infrastructure and services.
4.9 SUMMARY cont’
Data collection and demand forecasting:
• Data collection and demand forecasting (i.e.
trip generation, trip distribution, modal split,
and traffic assignment) are therefore the first
and most basic steps of transport analysis and
therefore planning.
• Based on this, various proposals can be made,
evaluated, implemented and marketed, and
then monitored and reviewed.
4.9 SUMMARY cont’
As has already been mentioned previously the role
of the government is most important in this
regard.
The advantages of the transport authority
undertaking the transport planning activities
are:
i. it is familiar with the study area and has the
most ready access to existing data and
materials required for the compilation of site
plans;
4.9 SUMMARY cont’
ii. with its professional staff, it is most familiar
with the existing problems of the area which
facilitates the formulation of objectives and
influences the terms of reference for the
preparation of the plan;
iii. it may be drawn from a wide body of
municipalities within the area and is thus in the
best position to identify the aspirations and
transport needs of people and organisations
within its jurisdiction;
4.9 SUMMARY cont’
iv. it is best qualified to decide the objectives of
the integrated transport plan, to determine
the organisational structure to be employed
throughout and to decide on the nature of
public involvement in the planning
processes;
v. it may facilitate the early definition of the
objectives which must be clear from the
outset of the design of any planning process;
4.9 SUMMARY cont’
vi. it is in the best position to prepare
information for the financial statement
which will require in-depth knowledge of the
provisions of the national and provincial
transport legislation as they relate to each
transport authority);
vii. it can also most easily provide information
on its financial and human resources
4.9 SUMMARY cont’
viii.it also best knows the local government
legislation and the inter-governmental
financial flows as determined by the
Financial and Fiscal Commission.
• The END