Susquehanna Township High School Advanced Placement® Statistics Syllabus Ms. Mary Beth Nied, Room 312 Email: mnied@hannasd.org Teacher Page: http://www.hannasd.org/Domain/584 AP Statistics Exam is on Wednesday, May 13, 2015 at 12 noon. Course Description Advanced Placement Statistics is a one period year-long preliminary course in college level Statistics designed to give students an introduction to the major concepts of exploring data, sampling and experimentation, probability, and statistical inference concluding in the AP cumulative course assessment in May. The goal of this course is to offer the opportunity to earn college credit for an introductory statistics class within the high school environment. Statistics is the perfect pairing of conceptual mathematics and real world application. Students must not only learn the mathematics involved in the various statistical analyses, but be able to explain their reasoning in a clear, succinct manner. Students will find this course applies directly to their biology, psychology, and sociology courses, to name a few. Structure of the Course Students have approximately 150 school days prior to the start of the AP Exam weeks in early May to cover all topics listed within the course description by the CollegeBoard. Students will be required to complete 30 minutes to an hour and a half of homework, studying and/or reading each night. It is imperative that students complete homework and prereading assignments to be successful in this class. Instructional time will be spent completing exploratory learning activities, discussing applications of concepts, and exploring techniques for dissecting AP problems. This course utilizes discovery learning and discussion of real world phenomenon to determine the theories and best practices of statistics. Students will be exposed to and required to use statistical language when answering questions on any assignment. Students must clearly explain their rationale and conclusions using appropriate language for each problem they complete. Previous AP Exam questions will be used as teaching tools and within cumulative unit assessments. Using the AP style of layering topics within each question, students will be required to draw conclusions across different concepts from design of study to the analysis and final conclusion, all written within the context of the problem using statistical language. Major Topics Exploring Data: Describing patterns and departures from patterns Sampling and Experimentation: Planning and conducting a study Anticipating Patterns: Exploring random phenomena using probability and simulation Statistical Inference: Estimating population parameters and testing hypotheses The entire outline of the course can be found on my teacher page under the AP Statistics tab. Technology Technology is utilized in virtually every section of the course. Students must have access to a TI-84 for use on all assignments both in class and at home. If students are unable to obtain their own calculator, one will be assigned to them from the class set. Primary Textbook Bock, David E., Paul F. Velleman and Richard D. DeVeaux. Stats: Modeling the World. 2nd edition; Boston: Pearson/Addison-Wesley, 2007. Expectations 1. Students must conduct themselves in a professional manner (courteous and mature behavior) and follow the policies and guidelines of the Susquehanna Township School District. 2. Students must maintain a notebook, binder or folder containing all class notes and homework assignments. 3. Students must bring a notebook or folder, textbook, and pencil to class each day. All work should be done in pencil. 4. Students must complete all exams, quizzes, projects, and the final exam. 5. Students must assume responsibility for their make-up work and grades using their Schoolwires account. 6. During work time in class you are expected to work on statistics and may work either individually or in small work groups. I am also available for help. 7. The Susquehanna Township School District tardy policy and electronic device policy will be followed. 8. Students talking during a test (but not cheating) will receive a ten percent reduction in their test grade. Students caught cheating on a test or quiz will receive an immediate zero on the test or quiz, and parents will be notified. Grading Overview Students will be graded on practice work and assessments. Practice work is any assignment that is graded for completeness and will be worth 25% of the student’s grade. This category includes homework, classwork, group work, and reading check quizzes. Assessments are any assignment that is graded for correctness and will be worth 75% of the student’s grade. This category includes quizzes, chapter tests, unit tests, cumulative exams, AP problem sets and projects. A student may be exempt from the final exam if he or she fulfills the requirements listed by the School District. Make-up Policy It is the student’s responsibility to make-up all required notes, homework, quizzes, assignments, projects, and tests. Homework should be made up within one week upon return to school. Tests and quizzes should be made up within 3 days of return, if new material was presented during the absence. If no new material was presented, quizzes and tests should be completed during class upon the student’s return to school. If a student is absent on the review day prior to a unit exam, the student will be required to take the exam on the day of the return. Students may not be permitted to make up any work assigned during an unexcused absence. Remind.com An account at remind.com is set up for one way communicating between teacher and students/parents. Please see the attached page to register to use this service. Additional Help It is the student’s responsibility to seek out extra help when struggling with concepts or problems. After school study sessions will be held throughout the course of the year and should be attended as regularly as possible. Several other tutoring opportunities are also available to students both before and after school. Students should use these sessions to gain understanding on difficult concepts and to reinforce previously mastered ideas. AP courses require students to have a working knowledge of the content previously discussed so review is critical to success. Student and parents/guardians are encouraged to contact the teacher with any questions or for suggestions regarding additional assistance. Notes on the Outline: The outline below provides the topic structure for each unit. Chapters from the BVD book are linked together to form the units. Each unit begins with an introduction discussion which centers around real-world situations involving the topic presented within each section. Assignments will be given from the corresponding chapter’s problem set or related worksheet. Students will sometimes be given AP problems as homework or classwork as well. Course Outline: Organized by Chapter in Primary Text Book (BVD) Unit 1: Exploring and Understanding Data Chapter 1: Stats Starts Here Introduction to Statistics and the Real World Statistics-Singular and Plural Data/Datum Conceptual understanding of variation Variable- Categorical Variable, Quantitative Variable and Identifier Variable Unit for Quantitative Variable Entering Data into TI-84 Area Principle Variable Independence Simpson’s Paradox Bar Chart Relative Frequency Bar Chart Pie Chart Segmented Bar Chart Chapter 2: Data Context Data Data table Cases/Respondents/Subjects/ Chapter 3: Displaying and Describing Categorical Data Frequency Table Relative Frequency Tables Distribution Contingency Tables Marginal Distributions Conditional Distribution Categorical Data Condition Chapter 4: Displaying Quantitative Data Distribution Histogram Relative Frequency Histogram Stem-And-Leaf Display Dotplot Shape, Center, Spread, Mode, Unimodal, Bimodal, Multimodal, Uniform, Symmetric Tails Skewedness Outliers Timeplot Cumulative Relative Frequency Create Graphical displays on the TI-84 5-Number Summary Boxplot Mean Variance Standard Deviation Create Graphical displays on the TI-84 Chapter 5: Describing Distributions Numerically Center Median Spread Range Quartile Interquartile Range (IQR) Percentile Unit 2: The Normal Curve- 9 Days Chapter 6: The standard Deviation as a Ruler and the Normal Model Shifting Rescaling Standardizing Standardized Value Normal Model Parameter Statistic Z-Score Standard Normal Model 68-95-99.7 Rule Normal Percentile Normal Probability Plot Changing Center and Spread Use T-84 to find Z-Scores Correlation Outlier Lurking Variable Scatterplots, Association, and Correlation on the TI-84 Unit 3: Exploring Bivariate Data (Part A)- 16 Days Chapter 7: Scatterplots, Association, and Correlation Scatterplots Association (Direction, Form, Strength) Explanatory Variable Response Variable X-Variable, Y-Variable Chapter 8- Linear Regression Model Linear Model Residuals Predicted Value Slope Regression To The Mean Regression Line/Line Of Best Fit Intercept Least Squares R2 Linear Regressions and the TI-84 Leverage Influential Point Lurking Variable Outcome Trial Response Variable Simple Random Sample (SRS) Sampling Variability Stratified Random Sample Cluster Sample Multistage Sample Systematic Sample Voluntary Response Bias Convenience Sample Under-Coverage Nonresponse Bias Response Bias Unit 4: Exploring Bivariate Data (Part B) Chapter 9: Regression Wisdom Subset Extrapolation Outlier Chapter 10: Re-Expressing Data: Get It Straight! Re-Express Data Ladder Of Powers Unit 5: Gathering DataChapter 11: Understanding Randomness Random Random Numbers Simulation Simulation Component Chapter 12: Sample Surveys Population Sample Sample Survey Bias Randomization Matching Sample Size Census Population Parameter Statist Sample Statistic Representative Chapter 13: Experiments and Observational Studies Observational Study Retrospective Study Prospective Study Experiment Random Assignment Factor Response Experimental Unit Level Treatment Principles Of Experimental Design (Control, Randomize, Replicate, Block) Statistically Significant Control Group Blinding, Single-Blind, Double-Blind Placebo, Placebo Effect Block Matching Designs Confounding “Something Has To Happen Rule” Complement Rule Disjoint (Mutually Exclusive) Addition Rule Legitimate Probability Assignment Multiplication Rule Independence Multiplication Rule General Multiplication Rule Tree Diagram Variance, Standard Deviation Changing A Random Variable By A Constant Adding Or Subtracting Random Variables TI-84 Applications Unit 6: Probability Chapter 14: From Randomness to Probability Random Phenomenon Probability Trial Outcome Event Independence (Informally) Law Of Large Numbers Chapter 15- Probability Rules! Sample Space Disjoint Events Addition Rule General Addition Rule Conditional Probability Unit 7: Random Variables (Probability Part B) Chapter 16: Random Variables Random Variable Discrete Random Variable Continuous Random Variable Probability Model Expected Value Chapter 17: Probability Models Bernoulli Trials Geometric Probability Model Binomial Probability Model Success/Failure Condition Unit 8: Sampling Distribution of Proportions and Understanding the Tests Chapter 18: Sampling Distribution Models Sampling Distribution Model Sampling Distribution Model For A Proportion Central Limit Theorem Sampling Distribution Model For A Mean Standard Error Ti-84 Applications Critical Value, Assumptions Conditions P-Value One-Proportion Z-Test TI-84 Applications Type I Error Type II Error Power Effect Size Pooling Two-Proportion Z-Test TI-84 Tests Chapter 19: Confidence Intervals for Proportions Confidence Interval One-Proportion Z-Interval TI-84 Z-One-Proportion Z-Interval Margin Of Error Chapter 20: Testing Hypotheses About Proportions Null Hypothesis Alternative Hypothesis Two-Sided Alternative One-Sided Alternative Chapter 21: More About Tests Statistically Significant Alpha Level Significance Level Critical Value Chapter 22: Comparing Two Proportions Variance of Independent Random Variables Sampling Distribution Of The Difference Between Two Proportions Two-Proportion Z-Interval Unit 9: Sampling Distribution of Means Chapter 23: Inference About Means Student’s t Degrees Of Freedom One-Sample T-Interval One-Sample T-Test for the Mean Tests on the TI-84 Pooled-T Methods Pooled T-Test Tests on the TI-84 Independence Two-Way Table Chi-Square Models Chi-Square Component Confidence Interval For A Predicted Mean Value Prediction Interval For An Individual Chapter 24: Comparing Means Two-Sample T- Methods Two-Sample T-Interval Two-Sample T-Test Pooling Chapter 25: Paired Samples and Blocks Paired Data Paired T-Test Paired-T Confidence Interval Unit 10: Chi-Squared TestChapter 26: Comparing Counts Goodness-Of-Fit Chi-Square Statistic Cell Homogeneity Standardized Residual Contingency Table Unit 11: Inference of Slope Chapter 27- Inference for Regression Conditions For Inference In Regression Residual Standard Deviation T-Test For The Regression Slope Confidence Interval For The Regression Slop