Single Input Production Economics for Farm Management AAE 320 Paul D. Mitchell Production Economics Learning Goals Single and Multiple Input Production Functions Economics to identify optimal input use and output combinations What are they and how to use them in production economics and farm management How much nitrogen fertilizer do I use for my corn? How much corn will I get if I use this much nitrogen? Application of basic production economics to farm management Production Definition: Using inputs to create goods and services having value to consumers or other producers Production is what farms do! Using land, labor, time, chemicals, animals, etc. to grow crops, livestock, milk, eggs, etc. Can further process outputs: flour, cheese, ham Can produce services: dude ranch, bed and breakfast, orchard/pumpkin farm/hay rides, etc. selling the “fall country experience” Production Function Production Function: gives the maximum amount of output that can be produced for the given input(s) Generally two types: Tabular Form (Production Schedule) Mathematical Function Milk (lbs/yr) 0 800 1,700 3,000 5,000 7,500 10,200 12,800 15,100 17,100 18,400 19,200 19,500 19,600 19,400 Tabular Form A table listing the maximum output for each given input level TDN = total digestible nutrition (feed) 20,000 Milk (lbs/yr) TDN (1000 lbs/yr) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 10,000 TDN (lbs/yr) 15,000 Production Function Mathematically express the relationship between input(s) and output Single Input, Single Output Milk = f(TDN) Milk = 50 + 3TDN – 0.2TDN2 Multiple Input, Single Output Milk = f(Corn, Soy) Milk = 50 + 3Corn – 0.2Corn2 + 2Soy – 0.1Soy2 + 0.4CornSoy Examples Polynomial: Linear, Quadratic, Cubic Milk = b0 + b1TDN + b2TDN2 Milk = –2261 + 2.535TDN – 0.000062TDN2 Many functions are used, depending on the process: Cobb-Douglas, von Liebig (plateau), Exponential, Hyperbolic, etc. Why Production Functions? More convenient & easier to use than tables Estimate via regression with the tables of data from experiments Increased understanding of production process: identify important factors and how important factor each is Allows use of calculus for optimization Common activity of agricultural research scientists Definitions Input: X , Output: Q Total Product = Output Q Average Product (AP) = Q/X: average output for each unit of the input used Example: you harvest 200 bu/ac corn and applied 100 lbs of nitrogen AP = 200/100 = 2, means on average, you got 2 bu of corn per pound of nitrogen Graphics: slope of line between origin and the total product curve Definitions Marginal Product (MP) = DQ/DX or derivative dQ/dX: Output Q generated by the last unit of input used Example: corn yield increases from 199 to 200 bu/ac when you increase nitrogen applied from 99 lbs to 100 lbs MP = 1/1 = 1, meaning you got 1 bu of corn from last 1 pound of nitrogen MP: Slope of total product curve Output Q Graphics Q 1) MP = 0 when Q at maximum, i.e. slope = 0 2) AP = MP when AP at maximum, at Q where line btwn origin and Input X Q curve tangent MP AP 3) MP > AP when AP increasing MP 4) AP > MP when AP AP decreasing Input X MP and AP: Tabular Form Input TP MP AP 0 0 1 6 6 6.0 2 16 10 8.0 3 29 13 9.7 4 44 15 11.0 5 55 11 11.0 6 60 5 10.0 7 62 2 8.9 8 62 0 7.8 9 61 -1 6.8 10 59 -2 5.9 MP = DQ/DX = (Q2 – Q1)/(X2 – X1) AP = Q/X MP: 6 = (6 – 0)/(1 – 0) AP: 8.0 = 16/2 MP: 5 = (60 – 55)/(6 – 5) AP: 8.9 = 62/7 Same Data: Graphically 55 TP MP AP 35 15 -5 0 2 4 6 8 10 Think Break #1 Fill in the missing numbers in the table for Nitrogen and Corn Yield Remember the Formulas MP = DQ/DX = (Q2 – Q1)/(X2 – X1) AP = Q/X N Yield 0 30 25 45 50 75 75 105 100 135 125 150 150 165 200 170 250 160 AP MP --1.8 --0.6 1.2 1.4 1.35 1.1 0.85 0.64 1.2 0.6 0.1 -0.2 Law of Diminishing Marginal Product Diminishing MP: Holding all other inputs fixed, as use more and more of one input, eventually the MP will start decreasing, i.e., the returns to increasing that input eventually start to decrease For example, as make more and more feed available for a cow, the extra milk produced eventually starts to decrease Main Point: X increase means MP decreases and X decreases means MP increases Transition We spent time explaining production functions Q = f(X) and their slope = MP, and AP = Q/X Now we can ask: How do I decide how much input to use? How much nitrogen should I use for my corn? How many seeds should I plant per acre? Choose each input to maximize farmer profit Set it up as an economic problem Intuition MP is the extra output generated when increasing X by one unit If you add one more pound of N, how much more corn do you get? The MP How much is this extra corn worth? Output Price x MP = value of the marginal product or the VMP What does this last pound of N cost? Input Price x Extra N added = Input Price x 1 Economics of Input Use How Much Input to Use? Mathematical Model: Profit = Revenue – Cost Profit = price x output – input cost – fixed cost p = pQ – rX – K = pf(X) – rX – K p = profit Q = output X = input p = output price r = input price f(X) = production function K = fixed cost Learn this model, we will use it a lot!!! Economics of Input Use Find X to Maximize profit p = pf(X) – rX Calculus: Set first derivative of p with respect to X equal to 0 and solve for X, the “First Order Condition” (FOC) FOC: pf’(X) – r = 0 p x MP – r = 0 Rearrange: pf’(X) = r p x MP = r p x MP is the “Value of the Marginal Product” (VMP), what would get if sold the MP FOC: Increase use of input X until p x MP = r, i.e., until VMP = r, the price of the input Intuition Remember, MP is the extra output generated when increasing X by one unit The value of this MP is the output price p times the MP, or the extra income you get when increasing X by one unit: VMP = p x MP The rule, keep increasing use of the input X until VMP equals the input price (p x MP = r), means keep using X until the income the last bit of input generates just equals the cost of buying the last bit of input Another Way to Look at Input Use Have derived the profit maximizing condition defining optimal input use as: p x MP = r or VMP = r Rearrange this condition to get an alternative: MP = r/p Keep increasing use of the input X until its MP equals the price ratio r/p Both give the same answer! Price ratio version useful to understand effect of price changes MP=r/p: What is r/p? r/p is the “Relative Price” of input X, how much X is worth in the market relative to Q r is $ per unit of X, p is $ per unit of Q Ratio r/p is units of Q per one unit of X r/p is how much Q the market place would give you if you traded in one unit of X r/p is the cost of X if you were buying X in the market using Q in trade MP = r/p Example: N fertilizer r = $/lb of N, p = $/bu of corn, so r/p = ($/lb)/($/bu) = bu/lb, or the bushels of corn received if “traded in” one pound of N MP = bushels of corn generated by the last pound of N Condition MP = r/p means: Find N rate that gives the same conversion between N and corn in the production process as in the market, or find N rate to set the Marginal Benefit of N = Marginal Cost of N Milk Cow Example r X TDN Q Milk MP 0 0 0 $0 $150 -$400 1 800 800 $96 $150 -$454 2 1,700 900 $108 $150 -$496 3 3,000 1300 $156 $150 -$490 4 5,000 2000 $240 $150 -$400 5 7,500 2500 $300 $150 -$250 6 10,200 2700 $324 $150 -$76 7 12,800 2600 $312 $150 $86 8 15,100 2300 $276 $150 $212 9 17,100 2000 $240 $150 $302 VMP = r 10 18,400 1300 $156 $150 $308 Optimal TDN = 10+ 11 19,200 800 $96 $150 $254 12 19,500 300 $36 $150 $140 13 19,600 100 $12 $150 $2 14 19,400 -200 -$24 $150 -$172 VMP price TDN profit Milk Price = $12/cwt or p = $0.12/lb TDN Price = $150 per 1,000 lbs Fixed Cost = $400/yr Price Ratio r/p = $150/$0.12 = 1,250 MP = r/p Maximum Production 1) Output max is where MP = 0 20,000 r/p 15,000 2) Profit Max is where MP = r/p Q 10,000 5,000 TDN 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 3000 2500 MP 2000 1500 1000 500 TDN 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Milk Cow Example: Key Points Profit maximizing TDN is less than output maximizing TDN, which implies profit maximization ≠ output maximization Profit maximizing TDN occurs at TDN levels where MP is decreasing, meaning will use TDN so have a diminishing MP Profit maximizing TDN depends on both the TDN price and the milk price Profit maximizing TDN same whether use VMP = r or MP = r/p Think Break #2 Fill in the VMP column in the table using $2/bu for the corn price. What is the profit maximizing N fertilizer rate if the N fertilizer price is $0.2/lb? N lbs/A Yield bu/A MP 0 25 50 30 45 75 --0.6 1.2 75 100 125 150 105 135 150 165 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.6 200 170 0.1 250 160 -0.1 VMP Yield 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 200 250 300 1.4 MP 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 0 50 100 150 Profit 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Using MP = r/p Price Changes Can use MP = r/p to find optimal X Can also use MP = r/p to examine effect of price changes: what happens to profit maximizing X if output price and/or input price change? Use MP = r/p and the Law of Diminishing MP Output price p increases → r/p decreases Input price r increases → r/p increases X increases → MP decreases X decreases → MP increases Optimal X for Output Price Change Output price p increases → r/p decreases Need to change use of X so that the MP equals this new, lower, price ratio r/p Law of Diminishing MP implies that to decrease MP, use more X Intuition: p increase means output more valuable, so use more X to increase output Everything reversed if p decreases Optimal X for Input Price Change Input price r increases → r/p increases Need to change use of X so that the MP equals this new, higher, price ratio r/p Law of Diminishing MP implies that to increase MP, use less X Intuition: r increase means input more costly, so use less X Everything reversed if r increases Think Break #2 Example Corn price = $2.00/bu N price = $0.20/lb Optimal N where VMP = r, or VMP = 0.20 Alternative: MP = r/p, or MP = 0.2/2 = 0.1 What if p = $2.25/bu and r = $0.30/lb, r/p = 0.133? Relative price of N has increased, so reduce N, but where is it on the Table? N Yield MP VMP 0 25 50 75 30 45 75 105 --0.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.4 2.4 100 125 150 135 150 165 1.2 0.6 0.6 2.4 1.2 1.2 200 250 170 0.1 160 -0.2 0.2 -0.4 Why We Need Calculus What do you do if the relative price ratio of the input is not on the table? What do you do if the VMP is not on the table? If you have the production function Q = f(X), then you can use calculus to derive an equation for the MP = f’(X) With an equation for MP, you can “fill in the gaps” in the tabular form of the production schedule Calculus and AAE 320 I will keep the calculus simple!!! Production Functions will be Quadratic Equations: Q = b0 + b1X + b2X2 First derivative = slope of production function = Marginal Product 3 different notations for derivatives dy/dx (Newton), f′(x) and fx(x) (Leibniz) 2nd derivatives: d2y/dx2, f′’(x), fxx (x) Quick Review of Derivatives Constant Function Power Function If Q = f(X) = K, then f’(X) = 0 Q = f(X) = 7, then f’(X) = 0 If Q = f(X) = aXb, then f’(X) = abXb-1 Q = f(X) = 7X = 7X1, then f’(X) = 7(1)X1-1 = 7 Q = f(X) = 3X2, then f’(X) = 3(2)X2-1 = 6X Sum of Functions Q = f(X) + g(X), then dQ/dX = f’(X) + g’(X) Q = 3 + 5X – 0.1X2, dQ/dX = 5 – 0.2X Think Break #3 1. 2. 3. What are the 1st and 2nd derivatives with respect to X of the following functions? Q = 4 + 15X – 7X2 p = 2(5 – X – 3X2) – 8X – 15 p = p(b0 + b1X + b2X2) – rX – K Calculus of Optimization Problem: Choose X to Maximize some function g(X) First Order Condition (FOC) Set g’(X) = 0 and solve for X May be more than one Call these potential solutions X* Identifying X values where the slope of the objective function is zero, which occurs at maximums and minimums Calculus of Optimization Second Order Condition (SOC) Evaluate g’’(X) at each X* identified Condition for a maximum is g’’(X*) < 0 Condition for a minimum is g’’(X*) > 0 g’’(X) is function's curvature at X Positive curvature is convex (minimum) Negative curvature is concave (maximum) Calculus of Optimization: Intuition FOC: finding the X values where the objective function's slope is zero, candidates for minimum/maximum SOC: checks the curvature at each candidates identified by FOC Maximum is curved down (negative) Minimum is curved up (positive) Example 1 Maximize, wrt X, g(X) = – 5 + 6X – X2 FOC: g’(X) = 6 – 2X = 0 FOC satisfied when X = 3 Is this a maximum or a minimum or an inflection point? How do you know? Check the SOC: g’’(X) = – 2 < 0 Negative, satisfies SOC for a maximum Example 1: Graphics Slope = 0 8 g’(X) = 0 6 g(X) and g'(X) 4 2 g(X) 0 0 1 2 3 -2 -4 -6 -8 Input X 4 5 6 g'(X) Example 2 Maximize, wrt X, g(X) = 10 – 6X + X2 FOC: g’(X) = – 6 + 2X = 0 FOC satisfied when X = 3 Is this a maximum or a minimum or an inflection point? How do you know? Check the SOC: g’’(X) = 2 > 0 Positive, does not satisfy SOC for maximum Example 2: Graphics What value of X maximizes this function? Slope = 0 12 10 8 g’(X) = 0 g(X) and g'(X) 6 4 g(X) 2 g'(X) 0 -2 0 1 2 3 -4 -6 -8 Input X 4 5 6 Think Break #4 Find X to Maximize: p = 10(30 + 5X – 0.4X2) – 2X – 18 1) What X satisfies the FOC? 2) Does this X satisfy the SOC for a maximum? Calculus and Production Economics In general, p(X) = pf(X) – rX – K Suppose your production function is Q = f(X) = 30 + 5X – 0.4X2 Suppose output price is 10, input price is 2, and fixed cost is 18, then p = 10(30 + 5X – 0.4X2) – 2X – 18 To find X to maximize p, solve the FOC and check the SOC Calculus and Production Economics p = 10(30 + 5X – 0.4X2) – 2X – 18 FOC: 10(5 – 0.8X) – 2 = 0 10(5 – 0.8X) = 2 p x MP =r 5 – 0.8X = 2/10 MP = r/p When you solve the FOC, you set VMP = r and/or MP = r/p Summary Single Input Production Function Condition to find optimal input use: VMP = r or MP = r/p What does this condition mean? What does it look like graphically? Effect of price changes Know how to use condition to find optimal input use 1) with a production schedule (table) 2) with a production function (calculus)