New Dynamics of Security
in East Asia
May 18, 2006
Regional Anatomy I
Ken JIMBO
Regionalism in Asia-Pacific / East Asia
Political & Security Dimension
1) April 13
Overview and Introduction: What is Regionalism?
2) April 20
Regionalism & Regional Integration
3) April 27
Regionalism in Asia
4) May 11
East Asian Community and East Asian Summit
5) May 18
New Dynamics of Security in East Asia
Introduction:
Understanding Asia-Pacific Security
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Security Environment in Asia-Pacific
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Impact of the End of Cold War
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European Theater and Asia Pacific Theater
Strategic Circumstances
US Engagement
Rise of Multilateral Security
Prevailing Double Track Approach
New Dynamics of Security in East Asia
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Strategic Circumstances
US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia
Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US Alliance Renovated
Cooperative Security: Multi-Layered Cooperation
Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms
European Theater and Asia-Pacific Theater
(During the Cold War)
NATO
Warsaw Pact
European Theater
(Regional Approach)
Asian Theater
(Bilateral Approach)
Bilateral (Hub-Spokes)
Alliances
Impact of the End of the Cold War
Four Dimension
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In Europe…
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Dissolution of Warsaw Pact
NATO Expansion
European Security & Defense Policy (ESDP)
⇒ In Asia, Hub-Spokes Remain the Same! But …
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Four Dimension
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Strategic Circumstances
US Engagement
Rise of Multilateral Security
Prevailing Double Track Approach
End of the Cold War 1)
Strategic Circumstances
Declining of Large Scale Threat
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Demise of East-West Confrontation
Transformation of USSR
Rising Regional Agenda
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Korean Nuclear Crisis (1993-94)
Taiwan Straits Tensions (1996)
End of the Cold War 2)
US Military Engagement
Bush Sr. Administration (1989-1993)
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East Asian Strategic Initiative (EASI)
> Force Reduction Plan
Clinton Administration (1993-2000)
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East Asian Strategic Report I (EASR I, 1995)
> US-Japan Alliance
East Asian Strategic Report II (EASR II, 1998)
> Comprehensive Engagement
End of the Cold War 3)
Rise of Multilateral Security
Track-I Framework
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ASEAN Regional Forum
(ARF <1994-present>)
Track-II Dialogues
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Council for Security Cooperation in
Asia Pacific (CSCAP)
Northeast Asian Cooperation Dialogue
(NEACD)
US East Asian Regional Security
EASI-I (1990)
“Our friends and allies in East Asia are reluctant to enter into
multilateral consultation on security concern for a variety of
reasons. Foremost is the wide cultural, political and
economic diversity among most of the Asian states which
makes bilateral security arrangements much more
appropriate”
―February 1990
US Department of Defense, A Strategic Framework for the Asian
Pacific Rim: Looking toward the 21st Century. April 19, 1990.
US East Asian Regional Security
EASR (1995)
“Some in the United States have been reluctant to enter
into regional security dialogues in Asia, but I see this as a
way to supplement our alliances and forward military
presence, not to supplant them”
―February 1995
US Department of Defense, The United States Security
Strategy for East Asia-Pacific Region, February 1995
Prevailing “Double Track Approach”
(1995-2001?)
Deterrence/Response
Korean Peninsula
Taiwan Straits
Alliance Mechanism
Cooperative Security
US-Japan Security Alliance
US-Korea Security Alliance
ARF
CBM / Preventive Diplomacy
New Dynamics of Security in East Asia
(2001-Present)
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Strategic Circumstances
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US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia
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Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US Alliance Renovated
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Cooperative Security: Multi-Layered Cooperation
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Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms
New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 1)
Strategic Circumstances
Rise of Asymmetrical Warfare
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Terrorist Networks
Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)
Lingering Traditional Risks Reloaded
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Korean Nuclear Crisis (2002-present)
Taiwan Straits
Rise of China
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Rising Military Capability
“Responsible Stakeholder”? (Robert Zoellick)
Traditional Risks Reloaded
North Korean Missile Range (status 1994)
Traditional Risks Reloaded
North Korean Missile Range (status 1998-)
Traditional Risks Reloaded
Proliferation Risk
A.Q. Kahn’s Nuclear Black Market
New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 2)
US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia
Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) 2001/05
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Capability-Based Approach
Static to Dynamic Defense Posture
Transformation of US Military and the Global
Posture Review (GPR)
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Reducing Size of US Forces
Increase US Military Capability
Enable Rapid Power Projection
Regional-Global Forward Presence
New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 3)
Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US Alliance Renovated
Japan-US Alliance: Toward ‘Global Alliance’
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“Common Strategic Objective” on Regional /
Global Context
Roles, Missions and Capabilities (RMC) Sharing
Relocation of US Bases in Japan
Korea-US Alliance: Constraint Transformation
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Future of Alliance Initiatives > FOTA > SPI
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Reduction of 12,500 US Troops from DMZ
“Cooperative Autonomous Defense”
New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 4)
Cooperative Security: Multi-Layered Cooperation
Region-wide Security Mechanisms
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ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)
Shangri-la Dialogue
Sub-Regional Security Mechanisms
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Six-Party Talks
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
Various Types of Military Exercises
New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 4)
Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms
Counter- / Anti- Terrorism Cooperation
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Proliferation Security Initiatives (PSI)
Trafficking Controls / Information Sharing
Non-Traditional Security Cooperation
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SARS / Aviation Flu
Anti-Piracy Cooperation
Transnational Organized Crimes
New Dynamics of Security in East Asia
Members
Functions
Forceful
Competitive
Inclusive / Regional
（Geographical Cooperation）
Japan-US Alliance
(Collective Security)
(Deterrence/Response)
Unforceful
Cooperative
（CBM / PD）
Exclusive / Functional
（Regional Security Complex）
Korea-US Alliance
Shanghai Cooperation
Organization
Proliferation Security Initiative
Anti-Terrorism Cooperation
ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)
Shangri-la Dialogue
Non-Traditional Security