Liquidity Risk Chapter 17 Financial Institutions Management, 3/e By Anthony Saunders Irwin/McGraw-Hill 1 Causes of Liquidity Risk • Liability side • Asset side » may be forced to liquidate assets too rapidly » may result from loan commitments • Need to be able to predict the distribution of net deposit drains. • Traditional approach: reserve asset management. Alternative: liability management. Irwin/McGraw-Hill 2 Liability Management • Federal funds market or repo market. • Managing the liability side preserves asset side of balance sheet. Borrowed funds likely at higher rates than interest paid on deposits. • Alternative: liquidate assets. In absence of reserve requirements, banks tend to hold reserves. E.g. In U.K. reserves ~ 1% or more. Downside: opportunity cost of reserves. Irwin/McGraw-Hill 3 Asset Side Liquidity Risk • Risk from loan commitments and other credit lines: » met either by borrowing funds or » by running down reserves. Irwin/McGraw-Hill 4 Measuring Liquidity Exposure Net liquidity statement: shows sources and uses of liquidity. • Sources: (i)Cash type assets, (ii) maximum amount of borrowed funds available, (iii) excess cash reserves • Uses include: borrowed or money market funds already utilized, and any amounts already borrowed from the Fed. Irwin/McGraw-Hill 5 Other Measures: • Peer group comparisons: usual ratios include borrowed funds/total assets, loan commitments/assets etc. • Liquidity index: weighted sum of “fire sale price” P to fair market price, P*, where the portfolio weights are the percent of the portfolio value formed by the individual assets. I = S wi(Pi /Pi*) Irwin/McGraw-Hill 6 Measuring Liquidity Risk • Financing gap and the financing requirement: • Financing gap = Average loans - Average deposits or, financing gap + liquid assets = financing requirement. • The gap can be used in peer group comparisons or examined for trends within an individual FI. » Example of excessive financing requirement: Continental Illinois, 1984. Irwin/McGraw-Hill 7 Liquidity Planning • Important to know which types of depositors are likely to withdraw first in a crisis. • Composition of the depositor base will affect the severity of funding shortfalls. • Allow for seasonal effects. • Delineate managerial responsibilities clearly. Irwin/McGraw-Hill 8 Bank Runs • Can arise due to concern about bank’s solvency. • Failure of a related bank. • Sudden changes in investor preferences. Demand deposits are first come first served. Depositor’s place in line matters. Bank panic: systemic or contagious bank run. Irwin/McGraw-Hill 9 Alleviating Bank Runs: Regulatory measures to reduce likelihood of bank runs: • FDIC • Discount window Not without economic costs. Irwin/McGraw-Hill 10 Liquidity Risk for Other FIs • Life Cos. Hold reserves to offset policy cancellations. The pattern is normally predictable. • An example: First Capital in California, 1991. • CA regulators placed limits on ability to surrender policies. • Problem is less severe for P&C insurers since assets tend to be shorter term and more liquid. Irwin/McGraw-Hill 11 Mutual Funds • Net asset value (NAV) of the fund is market value. • The incentive for runs is not like the situation faced by banks. • Asset losses will be shared on a pro rata basis so there is no advantage to being first in line. Irwin/McGraw-Hill 12