Presentation
by
Ajey Lele
IDSA, New Delhi
at
UNIDIR, Geneva
on
Aug 24, 2015
Space Stakeholders
Military
CAVEAT
The views expressed are my own and based on
open source information
Main Stakeholders
Civilian use
Military
Private Industry
Stakeholder Assessment
Role
Interests
Potential Impact
Influence
Cost
Space has a Strategic Character
Space technologies are strategic technologies. Military could be viewed
as a part of overall strategic domain
Geostrategic Attributes of Space Power
Space is the ultimate high ground
Space provides global access
Space allows global presence
Space enhances strategic depth
All above makes Space Power as an instrument of state power
Space Power & Space Superiority
• Space Power : The ability in peace, crisis, and war to exert, promote
and sustain influence in or from space
• Space Superiority: The degree of dominance in space of one force
over any others that permits the conduct of operations at a given
time and place without prohibitive interference from space-based
threats
Any military would desire such Superior Power
Reality
Possibilities
Need
Future
Military Understanding of Security
• A narrow view, hinging on military security alone
• Is war fighting the only role for the armed forces?
• Economic, environmental, energy, food, social &
human security
Role of Security Forces
• Conventional role
• In aid of civil authorities (natural disasters etc)
• UN peace keeping missions
• Out of area of operations…response to ‘geopolitical ripples’
Aim is to safeguard state’s strategic interests
Space for Military
• 1991 Gulf War and various subsequent military campaigns
• Satellite technologies are used for intelligence gathering, communication
and navigation purposes
• Use of space assets for military purposes is an acceptable norm
• Diverse challenges are attracting states towards…..making space a vital
element of their security architecture….Belgrade bombing, DPRK threat….
• JDAMs, PGMs, various modern warfighting platforms …..Asymmetric War
to NCW…..assistance from space is fast becoming a necessity
Deciding on Military Investments
Fundamental Questions
• What are threat perceptions? Needs for multilayered security architectures
• How state views “space” in its overall security calculus?
• Capabilities of the adversaries
• Is “space” relevant beyond ‘full-scale RMA model’?
• Validity of offence- defence balance…weapons of offence and defence are
similar….technologies are dual-use in nature
Use of Space by Armed Forces
A theoretical appreciation
• To build real time situational awareness through space communication and space
sensors
• To link radar and other communications networks over the entire length and
breadth of the country
• To assist in Ballistic Missile Defence
• To gather real time intelligence about enemy aircraft, ships, armour, missiles and
space borne threats
• To prevent enemy from using their space assets…… by resorting to jamming
Military Priorities
• Better sensors, a strong air/land/sea defence network, and a strike
capability
• A credible nuclear and conventional deterrent posture
• A highly networked and information technology-intensive
orientation
• Capability to exploit space-based ISR, command and control, and
navigation assets that will offer both real-time and predictive
battlespace awareness
Active Military Space Programmes
• Major areas: Early warning, Optical Reconnaissance, Communications,
Navigation and Signal Intelligence
• Photo-reconnaissance Satellites/Remote Sensing Satellites. Electronic
Intelligence/Communication Intelligence (ELINT/COMINT) Satellites,
GPS (equivalent) Satellites, Spy Satellites
• Who are in the Game? Major space-faring states have made
investments. Almost everybody has a interest…..
Militaries are looking for…
• Launch of demand capability
• Nano/micro/small satellites (to enhance warfighter situational
awareness in the battlespace)
• Space Fence programme: Enhanced space surveillance capability to
track and detect space objects
• Future war fighting communications needs. Use of commercial
technologies for military communications. Advanced Extremely High
Frequency (AEHF) military communication satellites.
Dependence, Vulnerability, Protection….
• Modern militaries have heavy dependence on space systems. So
there is a need to assure that these vital services are available all the
time
• Adversary would make an effort to ensure that these facilities are
unavailable
• Protecting mission-critical constellations becomes a necessity
• Counter measures, counter-counter measures…..
Challenges…..
• Military is emerging as an important stakeholder in “space”
• Also, achievements in space domain allows governments to seek status. It
is an instrument to project power…both Hard and Soft
• Would significance of space for the militaries would allow the world to
make space as a ‘stable, safe and predicable domain’? If not, then how to
ensure that Space Security is maintained?
• What mechanisms could be put in place in regards to global military
activities to ensure Space Security…..
Bilateral & Multilateral Mechanisms
• At Military to Military level……limitations for ‘all pervasive’ treaty
mechanism…….some regulatory mechanisms at military level could feed into
global mechanisms
• Militaries can have mechanisms like cooperation in the surveillance of space
(SSA), data sharing, advance notifications about the launch of military satellites
• Military space agencies could conduct joint exercises (CBMs), denounce space
weaponisation
• Could have develop instruments like NFU, treaty on non-debris generating ASAT
• Develop strategies to address Ballistic missile defence porgramme related
challenges
Wrapping up
• Pragmatic steps are required to be taken towards a more stable and predictable
space environment
• Thin line between militarization and weaponisation of space
• Developments in technology would bring in more challenges
• BMD is the elephant in the ‘space’
• Legally binding treaty mechanism is desirable
Postscript……
• No clarity about X-37B etc…if space technology matures to a level of
having a strike capability to address any target….it would develop a
revolutionary strategic significance
• Need to factor in possibilities…future could be about weapons in
space …..Bows, Arrows and Nuclear Weapons…change in the notion
of deterrence….
Thank You