Monitoring Progress on the Water and
Sanitation MDGs: Human Rights and
Maximum Available Resources
Edward Anderson and
Malcolm Langford
The Rights and Resources Critique of the MDGs
• The Millennium Development Goals have been commonly
interpreted and used as national targets.
• But criticism: from a human rights perspective, the MDGs fail
to take into account the more nuanced obligations of State’s
under international law.
• This includes the duty to use the maximum available
resources to realise social rights.
• The result is that the MDGs
framework may wrongly reward
countries for performance on
social rights; favouring middleincome countries and
discriminating against poorer
countries
Even more concerning since Majority of Poverty
now in Middle-Income Countries
Standard Measurements on MDGs
Numbers of States ”On Track”
Alternative 1: Have countries accelerated post2000? (‘progressively realised’)
Fukuda-Parr and Greenstein (2010; 2012)
Alternative 2: Have countries used their
maximum available resources?
• We test performance on two MDG targets and UN-recognised
rights, water and sanitation, from the perspective of a
country’s maximum available resources.
• A number of proxy indicators are used to measure resources,
including: GDP, dependency ratio, population shares, aid,
educational levels and water resources.
• The relationship between resources and progress on access to
water and sanitation is measured for resources at both points
in time and for changes over time.
Access to improved water source (%)
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Mean
80
81
83
85
87
Mean, pop
weighted
76
79
83
86
88
Minimum
14
2
22
26
29
Maximum
100
100
100
100
100
No. of
countries
164
189
191
187
174
Access to improved sanitation (%)
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Mean
66
66
69
71
72
Mean, pop
weighted
48
52
56
60
63
Minimum
3
4
7
9
9
Maximum
100
100
100
100
100
No. of
countries
149
181
189
187
171
Levels: water
1
2
GDP per capita (US$ PPP)
4.1***
4.4***
Population
1.5***
1.7***
Land area
-2.3***
-2.1***
Urban population (%)
0.2***
0.1***
Dependency ratio
-37.0***
-24.3***
Water resources
-0.1
0.3
-
1.2***
No. of observations
720
533
R2
0.72
0.75
Average years of schooling (ages 15+)
Levels: sanitation
1
2
11.9***
10.7***
Population
1.3**
1.9***
Land area
-1.9***
-3.0***
Urban population (%)
0.1***
0.1
Dependency ratio
-53.9***
-24.1***
Water resources
-0.9**
-0.3
-
3.1***
No. of observations
705
533
R2
0.74
0.75
GDP per capita (US$ PPP)
Average years of schooling (ages 15+)
Changes: water
1
2
0.7
0.7
Population
9.9***
11.5***
Land area
-
-
Urban population (%)
0.2***
0.2***
Dependency ratio
-5.6**
-4.4
Water resources
-
Average years of schooling (ages 15+)
-
-0.1
No. of observations
604
430
R2
0.10
0.14
GDP per capita (US$ PPP)
Changes: sanitation
1
2
GDP per capita (US$ PPP)
1.5***
1.9**
Population
4.0**
2.5
Land area
-
-
0.4***
0.4***
Dependency ratio
-18.3***
-12.2***
Water resources
-
Average years of schooling (ages 15+)
-
0.2
No. of observations
591
417
R2
0.22
0.22
Urban population (%)
Outliers: water (levels)
Country
Year
Actual access
(%)
Predicted
access (%)
Difference
Libya
2000
54
89
-35
Equatorial Guinea
2005
51
83
-32
Mauritania
1990
30
60
-30
Madagascar
1990
29
58
-29
Guinea-Bissau
1990
36
65
-29
Papua New Guinea
2010
40
68
-28
Sierra Leone
1990
38
66
-28
Madagascar
1995
33
60
-27
Papua New Guinea
2000
39
66
-27
Papua New Guinea
1995
40
66
-26
Outliers: sanitation (levels)
Country
Year
Actual access
(%)
Predicted
access (%)
Difference
Gabon
2010
33
78
-45
Gabon
2005
33
73
-40
Gabon
1995
36
70
-34
Congo, Rep.
2010
18
52
-34
Gabon
2000
36
70
-34
Ghana
2010
14
48
-34
Ghana
2000
10
43
-33
Haiti
2010
17
50
-33
Bolivia
1990
18
50
-32
Bolivia
1995
21
53
-32
Outliers: water (changes)
Country
End year
Actual change
(%)
Predicted
change (%)
Difference
West Bank and Gaza
2000
-5
3
-8
Yemen, Rep.
1995
-4
4
-8
Algeria
2000
-4
3
-7
Jordan
1995
-1
6
-7
Algeria
2005
-4
3
-7
West Bank and Gaza
2005
-4
3
-7
Yemen, Rep.
2000
-3
4
-7
Yemen, Rep.
2005
-3
4
-7
Rwanda
2000
0
6
-6
Sudan
1995
-2
3
-5
Outliers: sanitation (changes)
Country
End year
Actual change
(%)
Predicted
change (%)
Difference
Djibouti
2005
-6
3
-9
Jordan
1995
0
8
-8
Djibouti
2000
-5
3
-8
Haiti
2005
-3
4
-7
Gabon
2005
-3
4
-7
Haiti
2000
-3
3
-6
Haiti
2010
-2
4
-6
Nigeria
2000
-2
3
-5
Liberia
2000
1
6
-5
Bhutan
2005
2
7
-5
Interpretation
• Government capacity to improve access to water and sanitation
depends various factors, including but not limited to GDP per capita
• By controlling for these indicators using regression analysis we can
obtain a better indication of government ‘effort’ or priority
attached to water and sanitation
• Key challenges remain in the choice of capacity indicators
• The method can however be used to guide more detailed, countrylevel analysis on progress and government efforts