Managing Liquidity 1 Meeting Liquidity Needs Bank Liquidity A bank’s capacity to acquire immediately available funds at a reasonable price Firms can acquire liquidity in three distinct ways: 1. 2. 3. Selling assets New borrowings New stock issues 2 Meeting Liquidity Needs How effective each liquidity source is at meeting the institution’s liquidity needs, depends on: Market conditions The market’s perception of risk at the institution as well as in the marketplace The market’s perception of bank management and its strategic direction The current economic environment 3 Meeting Liquidity Needs Holding Liquid Assets “Cash Assets” Do not earn any interest Represents a substantial opportunity cost for banks Banks attempt to minimize the amount of cash assets held and hold only those required by law or for operational needs Liquid Assets Can be easily and quickly converted into cash with minimum loss 4 Meeting Liquidity Needs Holding Liquid Assets “Cash Assets” do not generally satisfy a bank’s liquidity needs If the bank holds the minimum amount of cash assets required, an unforeseen drain on vault cash (perhaps from an unexpected withdrawal) will cause the level of cash to fall below the minimum for legal and operational requirements 5 Meeting Liquidity Needs Holding Liquid Assets Banks hold cash assets to satisfy four objectives: 1. To meet customers’ regular transaction needs 2. To meet legal reserve requirements 3. To assist in the check-payment system 4. To purchase correspondent banking services 6 Meeting Liquidity Needs Holding Liquid Assets Banks own five types of liquid assets 1. Cash and due from banks in excess of requirements 2. Federal funds sold and reverse repurchase agreements 3. Short-term Treasury and agency obligations 4. High-quality short-term corporate and municipal securities 5. Government-guaranteed loans that can be readily sold 7 Meeting Liquidity Needs Borrowing Liquid Assets Banks can provided for their liquidity by borrowing Banks historically have had an advantage over non-depository institutions in that they could fund their operations with relatively lowcost deposit accounts 8 Meeting Liquidity Needs Objectives of Cash Management Banks must balance the desire to hold a minimum amount of cash assets while meeting the cash needs of its customers The fundamental goal is to accurately forecast cash needs and arrange for readily available sources of cash at minimal cost 9 Reserve Balances at the Federal Reserve Bank Banks hold deposits at the Federal Reserve because: The Federal Reserve imposes legal reserve requirements and deposit balances qualify as legal reserves To help process deposit inflows and outflows caused by check clearings, maturing time deposits and securities, wire transfers, and other transactions 10 Reserve Balances at the Federal Reserve Bank Required Reserves and Monetary Policy The purpose of required reserves is to enable the Federal Reserve to control the nation’s money supply The Fed has three distinct monetary policy tools: Open market operations Changes in the discount rate Changes in the required reserve ratio 11 Reserve Balances at the Federal Reserve Bank Required Reserves and Monetary Policy Example A required reserve ratio of 10% means that a bank with $100 in demand deposits outstanding must hold $10 in legal required reserves in support of the DDAs The bank can thus lend out only 90% of its DDAs If the bank has exactly $10 in legal reserves, the reserves do not provide the bank with liquidity If the bank has $12 in legal reserves, $2 is excess reserves, providing the bank with $2 in immediately available funds 12 Reserve Balances at the Federal Reserve Bank Impact of Sweep Accounts on Required Reserve Balances Under Reg. D, banks have reserve requirements of 10% on demand deposits, ATS, NOW, and other checkable deposit (OCD) accounts not reservable 13 Reserve Balances at the Federal Reserve Bank Impact of Sweep Accounts on Required Reserve Balances MMDAs are considered personal saving deposits and have a zero required reserve requirement ratio 14 Reserve Balances at the Federal Reserve Bank Impact of Sweep Accounts on Required Reserve Balances Sweep accounts are accounts that enable depository institutions to shift funds from OCDs, which are reservable, to MMDAs or other accounts, which are not reservable 15 Reserve Balances at the Federal Reserve Bank Impact of Sweep Accounts on Required Reserve Balances Sweep Accounts Two Types Weekend Program Reclassifies transaction deposits as savings deposits at the close of business on Friday and back to transaction accounts at the open on Monday On average, this means that for three days each week, the bank does not need to hold reserves against those balances 16 Reserve Balances at the Federal Reserve Bank Impact of Sweep Accounts on Required Reserve Balances Sweep Accounts Two Types Threshold Account The bank’s computer moves the customer’s DDA balance into an MMDA when the dollar amount reaches some minimum and returns funds as needed The number of transfers is limited to 6 per month, so the full amount of funds must be moved back into the DDA on the sixth transfer of the month 17 18 Meeting Legal Reserve Requirements Required reserves can be met over a two-week period There are three elements of required reserves: The dollar magnitude of base liabilities The required reserve fraction The dollar magnitude of qualifying cash assets 19 Meeting Legal Reserve Requirements 20 Meeting Legal Reserve Requirements Historical Problems with Reserve Requirements Reserve requirements varied by type of bank charter and by state. Non-Fed member banks had lower reserve requirements than Fed member banks 21 Meeting Legal Reserve Requirements Lagged Reserve Accounting Computation Consists of two one-week reporting periods beginning on a Tuesday and ending on the second Monday thereafter Maintenance Period Period Consists of 14 consecutive days beginning on a Thursday and ending on the second Wednesday thereafter 22 Meeting Legal Reserve Requirements Lagged Reserve Accounting Reserve Balance Requirements The balance to be maintained in any given maintenance period is measured by: Reserve requirements on the reservable liabilities calculated as of the computation period that ended 17 days prior to the start of the maintenance period Less vault cash as of the same computation period 23 Meeting Legal Reserve Requirements Lagged Reserve Accounting Reserve Balance Requirements Both vault cash and Federal Reserve Deposits qualify as reserves The portion that is not met by vault cash is called the reserve balance requirement 24 25 26 Meeting Legal Reserve Requirements An Application: Reserve Calculation Under LRA Four 1. 2. 3. 4. steps: Calculate daily average balances outstanding during the lagged computation period. Apply the reserve percentages. Subtract vault cash. Add or subtract the allowable reserve carried forward from the prior period 27 28 Meeting Legal Reserve Requirements Correspondent Banking Services System of interbank relationships in which the correspondent bank (upstream correspondent) sells services to the respondent bank (downstream correspondent) 29 Meeting Legal Reserve Requirements Correspondent Banking Services Common Correspondent Banking Services Check collection, wire transfer, coin and currency supply Loan participation assistance Data processing services Portfolio analysis and investment advice Federal funds trading Securities safekeeping Arrangement of purchase or sale of securities Investment banking services Loans to directors and officers International financial transactions 30 Meeting Legal Reserve Requirements Correspondent Banking Services Banker’s Bank A firm, often a cooperative owned by independent commercial banks, that provides correspondent banking services to commercial banks and not to commercial or retail deposit and loan customers 31 Liquidity Planning Short-Term Liquidity Planning Objective is to manage a legal reserve position that meets the minimum requirement at the lowest cost 32 Liquidity Planning 33 Liquidity Planning Managing Float During any single day, more than $100 million in checks drawn on U.S. commercial banks is waiting to be processed Individuals, businesses, and governments deposit the checks but cannot use the proceeds until banks give their approval, typically in several days Checks in process of collection, called float, are a source of both income and expense to banks 34 Liquidity Planning Liquidity versus Profitability There is a short-run trade-off between liquidity and profitability The more liquid a bank is, the lower are its return on equity and return on assets, all other things equal In a bank’s loan portfolio, the highest yielding loans are typically the least liquid The most liquid loans are typically government-guaranteed loans 35 Liquidity Planning The Relationship Between Liquidity, Credit Risk, and Interest Rate Risk Liquidity risk for a poorly managed bank closely follows credit and interest rate risk Banks that experience large deposit outflows can often trace the source to either credit problems or earnings declines from interest rate gambles that backfired Potential liquidity needs must reflect estimates of new loan demand and potential deposit losses 36 Liquidity Planning The Relationship Between Liquidity, Credit Risk, and Interest Rate Risk 37 Traditional Aggregate Measures of Liquidity Risk Asset Liquidity Measures The most liquid assets mature near term and are highly marketable Any security or loan with a price above par, in which the bank could report a gain at sale, is viewed as highly liquid Liquidity measures are normally expressed in percentage terms as a fraction of total assets 38 Traditional Aggregate Measures of Liquidity Risk Asset Liquidity Measures Highly Liquid Assets Cash and due from banks in excess of required holdings Federal funds sold and reverse RPs. U.S. Treasury securities and agency obligations maturing within one year Corporate obligations and municipal securities maturing within one year and rated Baa and above Loans that can be readily sold and/or securitized 39 Traditional Aggregate Measures of Liquidity Risk Asset Liquidity Measures Pledging Requirements Not all of a bank’s securities can be easily sold Like their credit customers, banks are required to pledge collateral against certain types of borrowings U.S. Treasuries or municipals normally constitute the least-cost collateral and, if pledged against debt, cannot be sold until the bank removes the claim or substitutes other collateral 40 Traditional Aggregate Measures of Liquidity Risk Asset Liquidity Measures Pledging Requirements Collateral is required against four different liabilities: Repurchase agreements Discount window borrowings Public deposits owned by the U.S. Treasury or any state or municipal government unit FLHB advances 41 Traditional Aggregate Measures of Liquidity Risk Asset Liquidity Measures Loans Many banks and bank analysts monitor loan-to-deposit ratios as a general measure of liquidity Loans are presumably the least liquid of assets, while deposits are the primary source of funds A high ratio indicates illiquidity because a bank is fully loaned up relative to its stable funding 42 Traditional Aggregate Measures of Liquidity Risk Liability Liquidity Measures Liability Liquidity: The ease with which a bank can issue new debt to acquire clearing balances at reasonable costs Measures typically reflect a bank’s asset quality, capital base, and composition of outstanding deposits and other liabilities 43 Traditional Aggregate Measures of Liquidity Risk Liability Liquidity Measures Commonly used measures: Total equity to total assets Risk assets to total assets Loan losses to net loans Reserve for loan losses to net loans The percentage composition of deposits Total deposits to total liabilities Core deposits to total assets Federal funds purchased and RPs to total liabilities Commercial paper and other short-term borrowings to total liabilities 44 Traditional Aggregate Measures of Liquidity Risk Liability Liquidity Measures Core Deposits A base level of deposits a bank expects to remain on deposit, regardless of the economic environment Volatile Deposits The difference between actual current deposits and the base estimate of core deposits 45 Longer-Term Liquidity Planning This stage of liquidity planning involves projecting funds needs over the coming year and beyond if necessary Forecasts in deposit growth and loan demand are required Projections are separated into three categories: base trend, short-term seasonal, and cyclical values The analysis assesses a bank’s liquidity gap, measured as the difference between potential uses of funds and anticipated sources of funds, over monthly intervals 46 47 Longer-Term Liquidity Planning The bank’s monthly liquidity needs are estimated as the forecasted change in loans plus required reserves minus the forecast change in deposits: Liquidity needs = Forecasted Δloans + ΔRequired reserves - Forecasted Δdeposits 48 Longer-Term Liquidity Planning 49 Longer-Term Liquidity Planning 50 Longer-Term Liquidity Planning 51 Longer-Term Liquidity Planning Considerations in the Selection of Liquidity Sources The costs should be evaluated in present value terms because interest income and expense may arise over time The choice of one source over another often involves an implicit interest rate forecast 52 Contingency Funding Financial institutions must have carefully designed contingency plans that address their strategies for handling unexpected liquidity crises and outline the appropriate procedures for dealing with liquidity shortfalls occurring under abnormal conditions 53 Contingency Funding Contingency Planning A contingency plan should include: A narrative section that addresses the senior officers who are responsible for dealing with external constituencies, internal and external reporting requirements, and the types of events that trigger specific funding needs 54 Contingency Funding Contingency Planning A contingency plan should include: A quantitative section that assesses the impact of potential adverse events on the institution’s balance sheet (changes), incorporates the timing of such events by assigning deposit and wholesale funding run-off rates, identifies potential sources of new funds, and forecasts the associated cash flows across numerous short-term and long-term scenarios and time intervals 55 Contingency Funding Contingency Planning A contingency plan should include: A section that summarizes the key risks and potential sources of funding, identifies how the modeling will monitored and tested, and establishes relevant policy limits 56 Contingency Funding Contingency Planning The institution’s liquidity contingency strategy should clearly outline the actions needed to provide the necessary liquidity The institution’s plan must consider the cost of changing its asset or liability structure versus the cost of facing a liquidity deficit 57 Contingency Funding Contingency Planning The contingency plan should prioritize which assets would have to be sold in the event that a crisis intensifies The institution’s relationship with its liability holders should also be factored into the contingency strategy The institution’s plan should also provide for back-up liquidity 58 The Effective Use of Capital 59 Why Worry About Bank Capital? Capital requirements reduce the risk of failure by acting as a cushion against losses, providing access to financial markets to meet liquidity needs, and limiting growth Bank capital-to-asset ratios have fallen from about 20% a hundred years ago to around 8% today 60 61 Risk-Based Capital Standards Historically, the minimum capital requirements for banks were independent of the riskiness of the bank Prior to 1990, banks were required to maintain: a primary capital-to-asset ratio of at least 5% to 6%, and a minimum total capital-to-asset ratio of 6% 62 Risk-Based Capital Standards Primary Capital Common stock Perpetual preferred stock Surplus Undivided profits Contingency and other capital reserves Mandatory convertible debt Allowance for loan and lease losses 63 Risk-Based Capital Standards Secondary Capital Long-term subordinated debt Limited-life preferred stock Total Capital Primary Capital + Secondary Capital Capital requirements were independent of a bank’s asset quality, liquidity risk, interest rate risk, operational risk, and other related risks 64 Risk-Based Capital Standards The 1986 Basel Agreement In 1986, U.S. bank regulators proposed that U.S. banks be required to maintain capital that reflects the riskiness of bank assets The Basel Agreement grew to include riskbased capital standards for banks in 12 industrialized nations Regulations apply to both banks and thrifts and have been in place since the end of 1992 Today, countries that are members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) enforce similar riskbased requirements on their own financial institutions 65 Risk-Based Capital Standards The 1986 Basel Agreement A bank’s minimum capital requirement is linked to its credit risk The greater the credit risk, the greater the required capital Stockholders' equity is deemed to be the most valuable type of capital 66 Risk-Based Capital Standards The 1986 Basel Agreement Minimum capital requirement increased to 8% total capital to riskadjusted assets Capital requirements were approximately standardized between countries to ‘level the playing field' 67 Risk-Based Capital Standards Risk-Based Elements of Basel I 1. 2. 3. Classify assets into one of four risk categories Classify off-balance sheet commitments into the appropriate risk categories Multiply the dollar amount of assets in each risk category by the appropriate risk weight 4. This equals risk-weighted assets Multiply risk-weighted assets by the minimum capital percentages, currently 4% for Tier 1 capital and 8% for total capital 68 69 Risk-Based Capital Standards 70 Risk-Based Capital Standards 71 72 73 74 75 What Constitutes Bank Capital? Capital (Net Worth) The cumulative value of assets minus the cumulative value of liabilities Represents ownership interest in a firm 76 What Constitutes Bank Capital? Total Equity Capital Equals the sum of: Common stock Surplus Undivided profits and capital reserves Net unrealized holding gains (losses) on available-for-sale securities Preferred stock 77 What Constitutes Bank Capital? Tier 1 (Core) Capital Equals the sum of: Common equity Non-cumulative perpetual preferred stock Minority interest in consolidated subsidiaries, less intangible assets such as goodwill 78 What Constitutes Bank Capital? Tier 2 (Supplementary) Capital Equals the sum of: Cumulative perpetual preferred stock Long-term preferred stock Limited amounts of term-subordinated debt Limited amount of the allowance for loan loss reserves (up to 1.25 percent of risk-weighted assets) 79 What Constitutes Bank Capital? Leverage Capital Ratio Tier 1 capital divided by total assets net of goodwill and disallowed intangible assets and deferred tax assets Regulators are concerned that a bank could acquire practically all low-risk assets such that risk-based capital requirements would be virtually zero To prevent this, regulators have also imposed a 3 percent leverage capital ratio 80 81 What Constitutes Bank Capital? 82 What Constitutes Bank Capital? 83 What Constitutes Bank Capital? Tier 3 Capital Requirements for Market Risk Under Basel I Market Risk The risk of loss to the bank from fluctuations in interest rates, equity prices, foreign exchange rates, commodity prices, and exposure to specific risk associated with debt and equity positions in the bank’s trading portfolio 84 What Constitutes Bank Capital? Tier 3 Capital Requirements for Market Risk Under Basel I Banks subject to the market risk capital guidelines must maintain an overall minimum 8 percent ratio of total qualifying capital [the sum of Tier 1 capital, Tier 2 capital, and Tier 3 capital allocated for market risk, net of all deductions] to risk-weighted assets and market risk–equivalent assets 85 What Constitutes Bank Capital? Basel II Capital Standards Risk-based capital standards that encompass a three-pillar approach for determining the capital requirements for financial institutions Basel II capital standards are designed to produce minimum capital requirements that incorporate more types of risk than the credit risk-based standards of Basel I Basel II standards have not been finalized 86 What Constitutes Bank Capital? Basel II Capital Standards Pillar I Credit risk Market risk Operational risk Pillar II Supervisory review of capital adequacy Pillar III Market discipline through enhanced public disclosure 87 What Constitutes Bank Capital? Weaknesses of the Risk-Based Capital Standards Standards only consider credit risk Ignores interest rate risk and liquidity risk Core banks subject to the advanced approaches of Basel II use internal models to assess credit risk Results of their own models are reported to the regulators 88 What Constitutes Bank Capital? Weaknesses of the Risk-Based Capital Standards The new risk-based capital rules of Basel II are heavily dependent on credit ratings, which have been extremely inaccurate in the recent past Book value of capital is often not meaningful since It ignores: changes in the market value of assets unrealized gains (losses) on held-to-maturity securities 97% of banks are considered “well capitalized” in 2007 Not a binding constraint for most banks 89 What is the Function of Bank Capital For regulators, bank capital serves to protect the deposit insurance fund in case of bank failures Bank capital reduces bank risk by: Providing a cushion for firms to absorb losses and remain solvent Providing ready access to financial markets, which provides the bank with liquidity Constraining growth and limits risk taking 90 What is the Function of Bank Capital 91 How Much Capital Is Adequate? Regulators prefer more capital Reduces the likelihood of bank failures and increases bank liquidity Bankers prefer less capital Lower capital increases ROE, all other things the same Riskier banks should hold more capital while lower-risk banks should be allowed to increase financial leverage 92 The Effect of Capital Requirements on Bank Operating Policies Limiting Asset Growth The change in total bank assets is restricted by the amount of bank equity ROA(1 DR) ΔEC/TA 2 ΔTA/TA 1 EQ1/TA 1 where TA = Total Assets EQ = Equity Capital ROA = Return on Assets DR = Dividend Payout Ratio EC = New External Capital 93 94 The Effect of Capital Requirements on Bank Operating Policies Changing the Capital Mix Internal versus External capital Change Asset Composition Hold fewer high-risk category assets Pricing Policies Raise rates on higher-risk loans Shrinking the Bank Fewer assets requires less capital 95 Characteristics of External Capital Sources Subordinated Debt Advantages Interest payments are tax-deductible No dilution of ownership interest Generates additional profits for shareholders as long as earnings before interest and taxes exceed interest payments 96 Characteristics of External Capital Sources Subordinated Debt Disadvantages Does not qualify as Tier 1 capital Interest and principal payments are mandatory Many issues require sinking funds 97 Characteristics of External Capital Sources Common Stock Advantages Qualifies as Tier 1 capital It has no fixed maturity and thus represents a permanent source of funds Dividend payments are discretionary Losses can be charged against equity, not debt, so common stock better protects the FDIC 98 Characteristics of External Capital Sources Common Stock Disadvantages Dividends are not tax-deductible, Transactions costs on new issues exceed comparable costs on debt Shareholders are sensitive to earnings dilution and possible loss of control in ownership Often not a viable alternative for smaller banks 99 Characteristics of External Capital Sources Preferred Stock A form of equity in which investors' claims are senior to those of common stockholders Dividends are not tax-deductible Corporate investors in preferred stock pay taxes on only 20 percent of dividends Most issues take the form of adjustable-rate perpetual stock 100 Characteristics of External Capital Sources Trust Preferred Stock A hybrid form of equity capital at banks It effectively pays dividends that are tax deductible To issue the security, a bank establishes a trust company The trust company sells preferred stock to investors and loans the proceeds of the issue to the bank Interest on the loan equals dividends paid on preferred stock The interest on the loan is tax deductible such that the bank deducts dividend payments Counts as Tier 1 capital 101 Characteristics of External Capital Sources TARP Capital Purchase Program The Troubled Asset Relief Program’s Capital Purchase Program (TARPCPP), allows financial institutions to sell preferred stock that qualifies as Tier 1 capital to the Treasury Qualified institutions may issue senior preferred stock equal to not less than 1% of risk-weighted assets and not more than the lesser of $25 billion, or 3%, of risk-weight assets 102 103 Characteristics of External Capital Sources Leasing Arrangements Many banks enter into sale and leaseback arrangements Example: The bank sells its headquarters and simultaneously leases it back from the buyer The bank receives a large amount of cash and still maintains control of the property The net effect is that the bank takes a fully depreciated asset and turns it into a tax deduction 104 Capital Planning Process of Capital Planning Generate pro formal balance sheet and income statements for the bank Select a dividend payout Analyze the costs and benefits of alternative sources of external capital 105 Capital Planning Application Consider a bank that has exhibited a deteriorating profit trend Assume as well that federal regulators who recently examined the bank indicated that the bank should increase its primary capital-to-asset ratio to 8.5% within four years from its current 7% The $80 million bank reported an ROA of just 0.45 percent During each of the past five years, the bank paid $250,000 in common dividends 106 Capital Planning Application Consider a bank that has exhibited a deteriorating profit trend The following slide extrapolates historical asset growth of 10% Under this scenario, the bank will actually see its capital ratio fall The following slide also identifies three different strategies for meting the required 8.5% capital ratio 107 108 Depository Institutions Capital Standards The Federal Deposit Insurance Improvement Act (FDICIA) focused on revising bank capital requirements to: Emphasize the importance of capital Authorize early regulatory intervention in problem institutions Authorized regulators to measure interest rate risk at banks and require additional capital when it is deemed excessive 109 Depository Institutions Capital Standards The Act required a system for prompt regulatory action It divides banks into categories according to their capital positions and mandates action when capital minimums are not met 110 Depository Institutions Capital Standards 111 112 Federal Deposit Insurance Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Established in 1933 Coverage is currently $100,000 per depositor per institution Original coverage was $2,500 113 Federal Deposit Insurance Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Initial Objective: Prevent liquidity crises caused by large-scale deposit withdrawals Protect depositors of modes means against a bank failure 114 Federal Deposit Insurance Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation The Financial Institution Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act of 1989 authorized the issuance of bonds to finance the bailout of the FSLIC The act also created two new insurance funds, the Savings Association Insurance Fund (SAIF) and the Bank Insurance Fund (BIF); both were controlled by the FDIC 115 Federal Deposit Insurance Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation The large number of failures in the late 1980s and early 1990s depleted the FDIC fund During 1991 - 92, the FDIC ran a deficit and had to borrow from the Treasury In 1991 FDIC began charging risk-based deposit insurance premiums ranging from $0.23 to $0.27 per $100, depending on a bank’s capital position. By 1993, the reduction in bank failures and increased premiums allowed the FDIC to pay off the debt and put the fund back in the black 116 Federal Deposit Insurance 117 Federal Deposit Insurance FDIC Insurance Assessment Rates FDIC insurance premiums are assessed using a risk-based deposit insurance system Deposit insurance assessment rates are reviewed semiannually by the FDIC to ensure that premiums appropriately reflect the risks posed to the insurance funds and that fund reserve ratios are maintained at or above the target designated reserve ratio (DRR) of 1.25% of insured deposits Deposit insurance premiums are assessed as basis points per $100 of insured deposits 118 Federal Deposit Insurance FDIC Insurance Assessment Rates FDIC Improvement Act Merged the BIF and SAIF into the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) Increasing coverage for retirement accounts to $250,000 and indexing the coverage to inflation Established a range of 1.15% to 1.50% within which the FDIC Board of Directors may set the Designated Reserve Ratio (DRR) 119 Federal Deposit Insurance FDIC Insurance Assessment Rates 120 Federal Deposit Insurance FDIC Insurance Assessment Rates Subgroup A Financially sound institutions with only a few minor weaknesses This subgroup assignment generally corresponds to the primary federal regulator’s composite rating of “1” or “2” 121 Federal Deposit Insurance FDIC Insurance Assessment Rates Subgroup B Institutions that demonstrate weaknesses that, if not corrected, could result in significant deterioration of the institution and increased risk of loss to the BIF or SAIF This subgroup assignment generally corresponds to the primary federal regulator’s composite rating of “3” 122 Federal Deposit Insurance FDIC Insurance Assessment Rates Subgroup C Institutions that pose a substantial probability of loss to the BIF or the SAIF unless effective corrective action is taken This subgroup assignment generally corresponds to the primary federal regulator’s composite rating of “4” or “5” 123 Federal Deposit Insurance FDIC Insurance Assessment Rates 124 Federal Deposit Insurance Problems With Deposit Insurance Deposit insurance acts similarly to bank capital In banking, a large portion of borrowed funds come from insured depositors who do not look to the bank’s capital position in the event of default A large number of depositors, therefore, do not require a risk premium to be paid by the bank since their funds are insured Normal market discipline in which higher risk requires the bank to pay a risk premium does not apply to insured funds 125 Federal Deposit Insurance Problems With Deposit Insurance Too-Big-To-Fail Many large banks are considered to be “too-big-to-fail” As such, any creditor of a large bank would receive de facto 100 percent insurance coverage regardless of the size or type of liability 126 Federal Deposit Insurance Problems With Deposit Insurance Deposit insurance has historically ignored the riskiness of a bank’s operations, which represents the critical factor that leads to failure Two banks with equal amounts of domestic deposits paid the same insurance premium, even though one invested heavily in risky loans and had no uninsured deposits while the other owned only U.S. government securities and just 50 percent of its deposits were fully insured The creates a moral hazard problem 127 Federal Deposit Insurance Problems With Deposit Insurance Moral Hazard A lack of incentives that would encourage individuals to protect or mitigate against risk In some cases of moral hazard, incentives are created that would actually increase risk-taking behavior 128 Federal Deposit Insurance Problems With Deposit Insurance Deposit insurance funds were always viewed as providing basic insurance coverage Historically, there has been fundamental problem with the pricing of deposit insurance Premium levels were not sufficient to cover potential payouts 129 Federal Deposit Insurance Problems With Deposit Insurance Historically, premiums were not assessed against all of a bank’s insured liabilities Insured deposits consisted only of domestic deposits while foreign deposits were exempt Too-big-to-fail doctrine toward large banks means that large banks would have coverage on 100 percent of their deposits but pay for the same coverage as if they only had the same $250,000 coverage as smaller banks do 130 Federal Deposit Insurance Weakness of the Current Risk-Based Deposit Insurance System Risk-based deposit system is based on capital and risk Hence, banks that hold higher capital, everything else being equal, pay lower premiums “Too Big to Fail” The FDIC must follow the “least cost” alternative in the resolution of a failed bank. Consequently, the FDIC must consider all alternatives and choose the one that represents the lowest cost to the insurance fund 131 Managing the Investment Portfolio 132 Managing the Investment Portfolio Most banks concentrate their asset management efforts on loans Managing investment securities is typically a secondary role, especially at smaller banks Historically, small banks have purchased securities and held them to maturity 133 Managing the Investment Portfolio Large banks, in contrast, not only buy securities for their own portfolios, but they also: Manage a securities trading account Manage an underwriting subsidiary that helps municipalities issue debt in the money and capital markets 134 Managing the Investment Portfolio Historically, bank regulators have limited the risk associated with banks owning securities by generally: Prohibiting banks from purchasing common stock (for income purposes) Limiting debt instruments to investment grade securities Increasingly, banks are pursuing active strategies in managing investments in the search for higher yields 135 Dealer Operations and the Securities Trading Account When banks purchase securities, they must indicate the underlying objective for accounting purposes: Held-to-Maturity Trading Available-for-Sale 136 Dealer Operations and the Securities Trading Account Held to Maturity: Securities purchased with the intent and ability to hold to final maturity Carried at historical (amortized) cost on the balance sheet Unrealized gains and losses have no impact on the income statement 137 Dealer Operations and the Securities Trading Account Trading: Securities purchased with the intent to sell them in the near term Carried at market value on the balance sheet with unrealized gains and losses included in income 138 Dealer Operations and the Securities Trading Account Available for Sale: Securities that are not classified as either held-to-maturity securities or trading securities Carried at market value on the balance sheet with unrealized gains and losses included as a component of stockholders’ equity 139 Dealer Operations and the Securities Trading Account Banks perform three basic functions within their trading activities: Offer investment advice and assistance to customers managing their own portfolios Maintain an inventory of securities for possible sale to investors Their willingness to buy and sell securities is called making a market Traders speculate on short-term interest rate movements by taking positions in various securities 140 Dealer Operations and the Securities Trading Account Banks earn profits from their trading activities in several ways: When making a market, they price securities at an expected positive spread Bid Price the dealer is willing to pay Ask Price the dealer is willing to sell Traders can also earn profits if they correctly anticipate interest rate movements 141 Objectives of the Investment Portfolio A bank’s investment portfolio differs markedly from a trading account Objectives of the Investment Portfolio Safety or preservation of capital Liquidity Yield Credit risk diversification Help in manage interest rate risk exposure Assist in meeting pledging requirements 142 Objectives of the Investment Portfolio Accounting for Investment Securities FASB 115 requires security holdings to be divided into three categories Held-to-Maturity (HTM) Trading Available-for-Sale The distinction between investment motives is important because of the accounting treatment of each 143 Objectives of the Investment Portfolio Accounting for Investment Securities A change in interest rates can dramatically affect the market value of a security The difference between market value and the purchase price equals the unrealized gain or loss on the security; assuming a purchase at par: Unrealized Gain/Loss = Market Value – Par Value 144 Objectives of the Investment Portfolio Accounting for Investment Securities Assume interest rates increase and bond prices fall: Held-to-Maturity Securities There is no impact on either the balance sheet or income statement Trading Securities The decline in value is reported as a loss on the income statement Available-for-Sale Securities The decline in value reduces the value of bank capital 145 Objectives of the Investment Portfolio Safety or Preservation of Capital A primary objective of the investment portfolio is to preserve capital by purchasing securities when there is only a small risk of principal loss Regulators encourage this policy by requiring that banks concentrate their holdings in investment grade securities, those rated Baa (BBB) or higher 146 Objectives of the Investment Portfolio Liquidity Commercial banks purchase debt securities to help meet liquidity requirements Securities with maturities under one year can be readily sold for cash near par value and are classified as liquid investments In reality, most securities selling at a premium can also be quickly converted to cash, regardless of maturity, because management is willing to sell them 147 Objectives of the Investment Portfolio 148 Objectives of the Investment Portfolio Yield To be attractive, investment securities must pay a reasonable return for the risks assumed The return may come in the form of price appreciation, periodic coupon interest, and interest-on-interest The return may be fully taxable or exempt from taxes 149 Objectives of the Investment Portfolio Diversify Credit Risk The diversification objective is closely linked to the safety objective and difficulties that banks have with diversifying their loan portfolios Too often loans are concentrated in one industry that reflects the specific economic conditions of the region Investment portfolios give banks the opportunity to spread credit risk outside their geographic region and across different industries 150 Objectives of the Investment Portfolio Help Manage Interest Rate Exposure Investment securities are very flexible instruments for managing a bank’s overall interest rate risk exposure Banks can select terms that meet their specific needs without fear of antagonizing the borrower They can readily sell the security if their needs change 151 Objectives of the Investment Portfolio Pledging Requirements By law, commercial banks must pledge collateral against certain types of liabilities. Banks that borrow via repurchase agreements essentially pledge part of their government securities portfolio against this debt Public deposits Borrowing from the Federal Reserve Borrowing from FHLBs 152 Composition of the Investment Portfolio Money market instruments with short maturities and durations include: Treasury bills Large negotiable CDs Bankers acceptances Commercial paper Repurchase agreements Tax anticipation notes 153 Composition of the Investment Portfolio Capital market instruments with longer maturities and duration include: Long-term U.S. Treasury securities Obligations of U.S. government agencies Obligations of state and local governments and their political subdivisions labeled municipals Mortgage-backed securities backed both by government and private guarantees Corporate bonds Foreign bonds 154 155 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Money Market Investments Highly liquid instruments which mature within one year that are issued by governments and large corporations Very low risk as they are issued by well-known borrowers and a active secondary market exists 156 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Money Market Investments Repurchase Agreements (Repos) A loan between two parties, with one typically either a securities dealer or commercial bank The lender or investor buys securities from the borrower and simultaneously agrees to sell the securities back at a later date at an agreed-upon price plus interest 157 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Money Market Investments Repurchase Agreements (Repos) The minimum denomination is generally $1 million, with maturities ranging from one day to one year The rate on one-day repos is referred to as the overnight repo rate and is quoted on an add-on basis assuming a 360-day year $ Interest = Par Value x Repo Rate x Days/360 Longer-term transactions are referred to as term repos and the associated rate the term repo rate 158 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Money Market Investments Treasury Bills Marketable obligations of the U.S. Treasury that carry original maturities of one year or less They exist only in book-entry form, with the investor simply holding a dated receipt Investors can purchase bills in denominations as small as $1,000, but most transactions involve much larger amounts 159 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Money Market Investments Treasury Bills Each week the Treasury auctions bills with 13-week and 26-week maturities Investors submit either competitive or noncompetitive bids With a competitive bid, the purchaser indicates the maturity amount of bills desired and the discount price offered Non-competitive bidders indicate only how much they want to acquire 160 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Money Market Investments Treasury Bills Treasury bills are purchased on a discount basis, so the investor’s income equals price appreciation The Treasury bill discount rate is quoted in terms of a 360-day year: where FV P 360 DR FV N DR = Discount Rate FV = Face Value P = Purchase Price N = Number of Days to Maturity 161 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Money Market Investments Treasury Bills Example: A bank purchases $1 million in face value of 26-week (182-day) bills at $990,390. What is the discount rate and effective yield? The discount rate is: $1,000,000 $990,390 360 DR 1.90% $1,000,000 182 The true (effective) yield is: $1,000,000 $990,390 Effective Yield 1 $990,390 (365/182) 1 1.956% 162 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Money Market Investments Certificates of Deposit Dollar-denominated deposits issued by U.S. banks in the United States Fixed maturities ranging from 7 days to several years Pay yields above Treasury bills. Interest is quoted on an add-on basis, assuming a 360-day year 163 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Money Market Investments Eurodollars Dollar-denominated deposits issued by foreign branches of banks outside the United States The Eurodollar market is less regulated than the domestic market, so the perceived riskiness is greater 164 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Money Market Investments Commercial Paper Unsecured promissory notes issued by corporations Proceeds are use to finance short-term working capital needs The issuers are typically the highest quality firms Minimum denomination is $10,000 Maturities range from 3 to 270 days Interest rates are fixed and quoted on a discount basis 165 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Money Market Investments Bankers Acceptances A draft drawn on a bank by firms that typically are importer or exporters of goods Has a fixed maturity, typically up to nine months Priced as a discount instrument like Tbills 166 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Capital Market Investments Consists of instruments with original maturities greater than one year Banks are restricted to “investment grade” securities If banks purchase non-rated securities, they must perform a credit analysis to validate that they are of sufficient quality relative to the promised yield 167 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Capital Market Investments Treasury Notes and Bonds Notes have a maturity of 1 - 10 years Bonds have a maturity greater than 10 years Most pay semi-annual coupons Some are zeros or STRIPS Sold via closed auctions Rates are quoted on a coupon-bearing basis with prices expressed in thirtyseconds of a point, $31.25 per $1,000 face value 168 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Capital Market Investments Treasury STRIPS Many banks purchase zero-coupon Treasury securities as part of their interest rate risk management strategies 169 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Capital Market Investments Treasury STRIPS The U.S. Treasury allows any Treasury with an original maturity of at least 10 years to be “stripped” into its component interest and principal pieces and traded 170 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Capital Market Investments Treasury STRIPS Each component interest or principal payment constitutes a separate zero coupon security and can be traded separately from the other payments 171 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Capital Market Investments Treasury STRIPS Example Consider a 10-year, $1 million par value Treasury bond that pays 9 percent coupon interest semiannually ($45,000 every six months) 172 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Capital Market Investments Treasury STRIPS Example This security can be stripped into 20 separate interest payments of $45,000 each and a single $1 million principal payment, or 21 separate zero coupon securities 173 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Capital Market Investments U.S. Government Agency Securities Composed of two groups Members who are formally part of the federal government Federal Housing Administration Export-Import Bank Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae) 174 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Capital Market Investments U.S. Government Agency Securities Composed of two groups Members who are government-sponsored agencies Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) Student Loan Marketing Association (Sallie Mae) 175 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Capital Market Investments U.S. Government Agency Securities Default risk is low even though these securities are not direct obligations of the Treasury; most investors believe there is a moral obligation These issues normally carry a risk premium of about 10 to 100 basis points. 176 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Capital Market Investments Callable Agency Bonds Securities issued by governmentsponsored enterprises in which the issuer has the option to call the bonds prior to final maturity Typically, there is a call deferment period during which the bonds cannot be called The issuer offers a higher promised yield relative to comparable non-callable bonds 177 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Capital Market Investments Callable Agency Bonds Banks find these securities attractive because they initially pay a higher yield than otherwise similar non-callable bonds The premium reflects call risk 178 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Capital Market Investments Callable Agency Bonds If rates fall sufficiently, the issuer will redeem the bonds early, refinancing at lower rates, and the investor gets the principal back early which must then be invested at lower yields for the same risk profile 179 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Capital Market Investments Conventional Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBSs) Any security that evidences an undivided interest in the ownership of mortgage loans The most common form of MBS is the pass-through security Even though many MBSs have very low default risk, they exhibit unique interest rate risk due to prepayment risk As rates fall, individuals will refinance 180 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Capital Market Investments GNMA Pass-Through Securities Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae) Government entity that buys mortgages for low income housing and guarantees mortgage-backed securities issued by private lenders 181 182 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Capital Market Investments FHLMC Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) FNMA securities Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) 183 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Capital Market Investments Both are: Private corporations Operate with an implicit federal guarantee Buy mortgages financed largely by mortgage-backed securities 184 Characteristics of Taxable Securities Capital Market Investments Privately Issued Pass-Through Issued by banks and thrifts, with private insurance rather than government guarantee 185 Prepayment Risk on MortgageBacked Securities Borrowers may prepay the outstanding mortgage principal at any point in time for any reason Prepayments typically increase as interest rates fall and slow as rates increase Forecasting prepayments is not an exact science 186 Prepayment Risk on MortgageBacked Securities Example: Current mortgage rates are 8% and you buy a MBS paying 8.25% Because rates have fallen, you paid a premium to earn the higher rate With rates only .25% lower, it is unlikely individuals will refinance If rates fall 3%, there will be a large increase in prepayments due to refinancing If the prepayments are fast enough, you may never recover the premium you paid 187 188 Prepayment Risk on MortgageBacked Securities Alternative Mortgage-Backed Securities Collateralized Mortgage Obligations (CMOs) Security backed by a pool of mortgages and structured to fall within an estimated maturity range (tranche) based on the timing of allocated interest and principal payments on the underlying mortgages 189 Prepayment Risk on MortgageBacked Securities Alternative Mortgage-Backed Securities Collateralized Mortgage Obligations (CMOs) Tranche: The principal amount related to a specific class of stated maturities on a collateralized mortgage obligation. The first class of bonds has the shortest maturities 190 Prepayment Risk on MortgageBacked Securities Alternative Mortgage-Backed Securities Collateralized Mortgage Obligations (CMOs) CMOs were introduced to circumvent some of the prepayment risk associated with the traditional pass-through security CMOs are essentially bonds An originator combines various mortgage pools to serve as collateral and creates classes of bonds with different maturities 191 Prepayment Risk on MortgageBacked Securities Alternative Mortgage-Backed Securities Collateralized Mortgage Obligations (CMOs) The first class, or tranche, has the shortest maturity Interest payments are paid to all classes of bonds but principal payments are paid to the first tranche until they have been paid off After the first tranche is paid, principal payments are made to the second tranche, etc 192 Prepayment Risk on MortgageBacked Securities Alternative Mortgage-Backed Securities Collateralized Mortgage Obligations (CMOs) Planned Amortization Class CMO (PAC) A security that is retired according to a planned amortization schedule, while payments to other classes of securities are slowed or accelerated Least risky of the CMOs Objective is to ensure that PACs exhibit highly predictable maturities and cash flows 193 Alternative Mortgage-Backed Securities Alternative Mortgage-Backed Securities Collateralized Mortgage Obligations (CMOs) Z-Tranche Final class of securities in a CMO, exhibiting the longest maturity and greatest price volatility These securities often accrue interest until all other classes are retired 194 Prepayment Risk on MortgageBacked Securities Alternative Mortgage-Backed Securities Collateralized Mortgage Obligations (CMOs) CMOs’ Advantages over MBS PassThroughs Some classes (tranches) exhibit less prepayment risk; some exhibit greater prepayment risk Appeal to investors with different maturity preferences by segmenting the securities into maturity classes 195 Prepayment Risk on MortgageBacked Securities Alternative Mortgage-Backed Securities Stripped Mortgage-Backed Securities More complicated in terms of structure and pricing characteristics Example: Consider a 30 year, 12% fixed-rate mortgage 196 Prepayment Risk on MortgageBacked Securities Alternative Mortgage-Backed Securities Stripped Mortgage-Backed Securities Example: There will be 30 x 12 (360) payments (principal plus interest) 197 Prepayment Risk on MortgageBacked Securities Alternative Mortgage-Backed Securities Stripped Mortgage-Backed Securities Example: Loan amortization means the principal only payments are smaller in the beginning: P1 < P2 < … < P360 Interest only payments decrease over time: I1 > I2 > … > I360 198 Prepayment Risk on MortgageBacked Securities Corporate, Foreign Bonds, and Taxable Municipal Bonds In mid-2008, banks held $563 billion in corporate and foreign bonds, which was almost more than triple their holdings of municipals 199 Prepayment Risk on MortgageBacked Securities Corporate, Foreign Bonds, and Taxable Municipal Bonds By regulation, banks can invest no more than 10% of capital in the securities of any single firm 200 Prepayment Risk on MortgageBacked Securities Corporate, Foreign Bonds, and Taxable Municipal Bonds In most cases, banks purchase securities that mature within 10 years Occasionally, banks also purchase municipal bonds that pay taxable interest 201 202 Prepayment Risk on MortgageBacked Securities Asset-Backed Securities Conceptually, an asset-backed security is comparable to a mortgage-backed security in structure The securities are effectively “passthroughs” since principal and interest are secured by the payments on the specific loans pledged as security 203 Prepayment Risk on MortgageBacked Securities Asset-Backed Securities Two popular asset-backed securities are: Collateralized automobile receivables (CARS) CARDS Securities backed by credit card loans to individuals 204 Prepayment Risk on MortgageBacked Securities Asset-Backed Securities Collateralized Debt Obligations Securitized interests in pools of assets, typically bank loans and/or bonds When the underlying collateral is loans or bonds, these securities are labeled CLOs or CBOs, respectively 205 Prepayment Risk on MortgageBacked Securities Asset-Backed Securities Collateralized Debt Obligations As with CMOs, the originator creates tranches, typically labeled senior, mezzanine, or subordinated (or equity) Promised payments go initially to service senior debt followed by mezzanine and subordinated debt, respectively 206 Prepayment Risk on MortgageBacked Securities Asset-Backed Securities Mutual Funds Banks have increased their holdings in mutual funds to over $75 billion in 2008 Mutual fund investments must be markedto-market and can cause volatility on the values reported on the bank’s balance sheet 207 Characteristics of Municipal Securities Municipals are exempt from federal income taxes and generally exempt from state or local as well General obligation Principal and interest payments are backed by the full faith, credit, and taxing authority of the issuer 208 Characteristics of Municipal Securities Revenue Bonds Backed by revenues generated from the project the bond proceeds are used to finance Industrial Development Bonds Expenditures of private corporations 209 210 Characteristics of Municipal Securities Money Market Municipals Municipal Provide operating funds for government units Tax Notes and Revenue Anticipation Notes Issued in anticipation of tax receipts or other revenue generation 211 Characteristics of Municipal Securities Money Market Municipals Bond Anticipation Notes Provide interim financing for capital projects that will ultimately financed with long-term bonds Project Notes Used to finance urban renewal, local neighborhood development , and lowincome housing 212 Characteristics of Municipal Securities Money Market Municipals Tax-Exempt Commercial Paper issued by the largest municipalities, which regularly need blocks of funds in $1 million multiples for operating purposes Because only large, well-known borrowers issue this paper, yields are below those quoted on comparably rated municipal notes 213 Characteristics of Municipal Securities Money Market Municipals Banks buy large amounts of short-term municipals They often work closely with municipalities in placing these securities 214 Characteristics of Municipal Securities Capital Market Municipals General Obligation Bonds Interest and principal payments are backed by the full faith, credit, and taxing power of the issuer This backing represents the strongest commitment a government can make in support of its debt 215 Characteristics of Municipal Securities Capital Market Municipals Revenue Bonds Issued to finance projects whose revenues are the primary source of repayment Banks buy both general obligation and revenue bonds The only restriction is that the bonds be investment grade or equivalent 216 Characteristics of Municipal Securities Credit Risk in the Municipal Portfolio Until the 1970s, few municipal securities went into default Deteriorating conditions in many large cities ultimately resulted in defaults by: New York City (1975), Cleveland (1978), Washington Public Power & Supply System (WHOOPS) (1983), Jefferson County, AL (2008) 217 Characteristics of Municipal Securities Liquidity Risk Municipals exhibit substantially lower liquidity than Treasury or agency securities 218 Characteristics of Municipal Securities Liquidity Risk The secondary market for municipals is fundamentally an over-the-counter market Small, non-rated issues trade infrequently and at relatively large bidask dealer spreads Large issues of nationally known municipalities, state agencies, and states trade more actively at smaller spreads 219 Characteristics of Municipal Securities Liquidity Risk Name recognition is critical, as investors are more comfortable when they can identify the issuer with a specific location Insurance also helps by improving the rating and by association with a known property and casualty insurer 220 Characteristics of Municipal Securities Liquidity Risk Municipals are less volatile in price than Treasury securities This is generally attributed to the peculiar tax features of municipals 221 Characteristics of Municipal Securities Liquidity Risk The municipal market is segmented On the supply side, municipalities cannot shift between short- and long-term securities to take advantage of yield differences because of constitutional restrictions on balanced operating budgets Thus long-term bonds cannot be substituted for short-term municipals to finance operating expenses, and Capital expenditures are not financed by ST securities 222 Characteristics of Municipal Securities Liquidity Risk The municipal market is segmented. On the demand side, banks once dominated the market for short-term municipals Today, individuals via tax-exempt money market mutual funds dominate the short maturity spectrum Municipals are less volatile in price than Treasury securities 223 Establishing Investment Policy Guidelines Each bank’s asset and liability or risk management committee is responsible for establishing investment policy guidelines These guidelines define the parameters within which investment decisions help meet overall return and risk objectives 224 Establishing Investment Policy Guidelines Because securities are impersonal loans that are easily bought and sold, they can be used at the margin to help achieve a bank’s liquidity, credit risk, and earnings sensitivity or duration gap targets 225 Establishing Investment Policy Guidelines Investment guidelines identify specific goals and constraints regarding: Return Objective Composition of Investments Liquidity Considerations Credit Risk Considerations Interest Rate Risk Considerations Total Return Versus Current Income 226 Active Investment Strategies Portfolio managers can buy or sell securities to achieve aggregate risk and return objectives Investment strategies can subsequently play an integral role in meeting overall asset and liability management goals Unfortunately, not all banks view their securities portfolio in light of these opportunities 227 Active Investment Strategies Many smaller banks passively manage their portfolios using simple buy and hold strategies The purported advantages are that such a policy requires limited investment expertise and virtually no management time; lowers transaction costs; and provides for predictable liquidity 228 Active Investment Strategies Other banks actively manage their portfolios by: Adjusting maturities Changing the composition of taxable versus tax-exempt securities Swapping securities to meet risk and return objectives 229 Active Investment Strategies Advantage is that active portfolio managers can earn above-average returns by capturing pricing discrepancies in the marketplace Disadvantages: Managers must consistently out predict the market for the strategies to be successful High transactions costs 230 Active Investment Strategies The Maturity or Duration Choice for Long-Term Securities The optimal maturity or duration is possibly the most difficult choice facing portfolio managers It is very difficult to outperform the market when forecasting interest rates 231 Active Investment Strategies Passive Maturity Strategies Laddered (or Staggered) maturity strategy Management initially specifies a maximum acceptable maturity and securities are evenly spaced throughout maturity Securities are held until maturity to earn the fixed returns 232 Active Investment Strategies Passive Maturity Strategies Barbell Maturity Strategy Differentiates investments between those purchased for liquidity and those for income Short-term securities are held for liquidity Long-term securities for income Also labeled the long and short strategy 233 Active Investment Strategies Active Maturity Strategies Active portfolio management involves taking risks to improve total returns by: Adjusting maturities Swapping securities Periodically liquidating discount instruments To be successful, the bank must avoid the trap of aggressively buying fixedincome securities at relatively low rates when loan demand is low and deposits are high 234 Active Investment Strategies Active Maturity Strategies Riding the Yield Curve This strategy works best when the yield curve is upward-sloping and rates are stable. Three basic steps: Identify the appropriate investment horizon Buy a par value security with a maturity longer than the investment horizon and where the coupon yield is higher in relationship to the overall yield curve Sell the security at the end of the holding period when time remains before maturity 235 236 Active Investment Strategies Interest Rates and the Business Cycle Expansion Increasing Consumer Spending Inventory Accumulation Rising Loan Demand Federal Reserve Begins to Slow Money Growth Peak Monetary Restraint High Loan Demand Little Liquidity 237 Active Investment Strategies Interest Rates and the Business Cycle Contraction Falling Consumer Spending Inventory Contraction Falling Loan Demand Federal Reserve Accelerates Money Growth Trough Monetary Policy Eases Limited Loan Demand Excess Liquidity 238 239 Active Investment Strategies Passive Strategies Over the Business Cycle One popular passive investment strategy follows from the traditional belief that a bank’s securities portfolio should consist of primary reserves and secondary reserves This view suggests that banks hold shortterm, highly marketable securities primarily to meet unanticipated loan demand and deposit withdrawals 240 Active Investment Strategies Passive Strategies Over the Business Cycle Once these primary liquidity reserves are established, banks invest any residual funds in long-term securities that are less liquid but offer higher yields 241 Active Investment Strategies Passive Strategies Over the Business Cycle A problem arises because banks normally have excess liquidity during contractionary periods when loan demand is declining and the Fed starts to pump reserves into the banking system Interest rates are thus relatively low 242 Active Investment Strategies Passive Strategies Over the Business Cycle Banks employing this strategy add to their secondary reserve by buying long-term securities near the low point in the interest rate cycle Long-term rates are typically above short-term rates, but all rates are relatively low 243 Active Investment Strategies Passive Strategies Over the Business Cycle With a buy and hold orientation, these banks lock themselves into securities that depreciate in value as interest rates move higher 244 Active Investment Strategies Active Strategies Over the Business Cycle Many portfolio managers attempt to time major movements in the level of interest rates relative to the business cycle and adjust security maturities accordingly Some try to time interest rate peaks by following a counter-cyclical investment strategy defined by changes in loan demand and the yield curve’s shape 245 Active Investment Strategies Active Strategies Over the Business Cycle The strategy entails both expanding the investment portfolio and lengthening maturities at the top of they business cycle, when both interest rates and loan demand are high Note that the yield curve generally inverts when rates are at their peak prior to a recession 246 Active Investment Strategies Active Strategies Over the Business Cycle Alternatively, at the bottom of the business cycle when both interest rates and loan demand are low, a bank contracts the portfolio and shorten maturities 247 The Impact of Interest Rates on the Value of Securities with Embedded Options Issues for Securities with Embedded Options Callable agency securities or mortgage-backed securities have embedded options 248 The Impact of Interest Rates on the Value of Securities with Embedded Options Issues for Securities with Embedded Options To value a security with an embedded option, three questions must be addressed Is the investor the buyer or seller of the option? How and by what amount is the buyer being compensated for selling the option, or how much must it pay to buy the option? When will the option be exercised and what is the likelihood of exercise? 249 250 The Roles of Duration and Convexity in Analyzing Bond Price Volatility Recall that the duration for an option- free security is a weighted average of the time until the expected cash flows from a security will be received P Duration - P i (1 i) i P - Duration P (1 i) 251 252 The Roles of Duration and Convexity in Analyzing Bond Price Volatility From the previous slide, we can see: The difference between the actual price-yield curve and the straight line representing duration at the point of tangency equals the error in applying duration to estimate the change in bond price at each new yield For both rate increases and rate decreases, the estimated price based on duration will be below the actual price 253 The Roles of Duration and Convexity in Analyzing Bond Price Volatility Actual price increases are greater and price declines less than that suggested by duration when interest rates fall or rise, respectively, for option-free bonds For small changes in yield the error is small For large changes in yield the error is large 254 The Roles of Duration and Convexity in Analyzing Bond Price Volatility Convexity The rate of change in duration when yields change It attempts to improve upon duration as an approximation of price ΔPrice Due to Convexity Convexity(i2 )Price This is positive feature for buyers of bonds because as yields decline, price appreciation accelerates 255 The Roles of Duration and Convexity in Analyzing Bond Price Volatility Convexity As yields increase, duration for option free bonds decreases, reducing the rate at which price declines This characteristic is called positive convexity The underlying bond becomes more price sensitive when yields decline and less price sensitive when yields increase 256 Impact of Prepayments on Duration and Yield for Bonds with Options Embedded options affect the estimated duration and convexity of securities 257 Impact of Prepayments on Duration and Yield for Bonds with Options Prepayments will affect the duration of mortgage-backed securities Market participants price mortgagebacked securities by following a 3-step procedure: Estimate the duration based on an assumed interest rate environment and prepayment speed Identify a zero-coupon Treasury security with the same (approximate) duration. The MBS is priced at a mark-up over the Treasury 258 Impact of Prepayments on Duration and Yield for Bonds with Options The MBS yield is set equal to the yield on the same duration Treasury plus a spread The spread can range from 50 to 300 basis points depending on market conditions The MBS yields reflect the zero-coupon Treasury yield curve plus a premium 259 Impact of Prepayments on Duration and Yield for Bonds with Options Positive and Negative Convexity Option-free securities exhibit positive convexity because as rates increase, the percentage price decline is less than the percentage price increase associated with the same rate decline Securities with embedded options may exhibit negative convexity The percentage price increase is less than the percentage price decrease for equal negative and positive changes in rates 260 Impact of Prepayments on Duration and Yield for Bonds with Options Effective Duration and Effective Convexity Both are used to estimate a security’s price sensitivity when the security contains embedded options P -P Effective Duration i- iP0 (i i ) Pi- Pi 2P * Effective Convexity P * [0.5(i i- )]2 Where: Pi- = price if rates fall + =initial market rate plus i Pi+ = price if rates rise the increase in rate P0 = initial (current) price i- = initial market rate minus the decrease in rate 261 P* = initial price Impact of Prepayments on Duration and Yield for Bonds with Options Effective Duration and Effective Convexity Example: Consider a GNMA pass-through which has 28-years and 4-months weighted average maturity The MBS is initially priced at 102 and 17/32nds to yield 6.912%, at 258 PSA At this price and PSA, MBS has an estimated average life of 5.57 years and a modified duration of 4.01 years 262 Impact of Prepayments on Duration and Yield for Bonds with Options Effective Duration and Effective Convexity Example: Assume a 1% decline in rates will accelerate prepayments and lead to a price of 102 while a 1% increase will slow prepayments and produce a price of 103 263 Impact of Prepayments on Duration and Yield for Bonds with Options Effective Duration and Effective Convexity Example: The effective duration and convexity for this security are thus: Effective GNMA duration = [102-103]/ 102.53125x(.05921 .07921) = -0.4877 years Effective GNMA convexity = [102+103-2 x (102.53125)]÷102.53125[0.52(.02)2] = -6.096 years 264 Total Return and Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis of Securities with Options Total Return Analysis investor’s actual realized return should reflect the coupon interest, reinvestment income, and value of the security at maturity or sale at the end of the holding period When a security carries embedded options, these component cash flows will vary in different interest rate environments An 265 Total Return and Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis of Securities with Options Total Return Analysis If rates fall and borrowers prepay faster than originally expected: Coupon interest will fall Reinvestment income will fall The price at sale (end of the holding period) may rise or fall depending on the speed of prepayments 266 Total Return and Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis of Securities with Options Total Return Analysis When rates rise Borrowers prepay slower Coupon income increases Reinvestment income increases The price at sale may rise or fall 267 268 Total Return and Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis of Securities with Options Option-Adjusted Spread The standard calculation of yield to maturity is inappropriate with prepayment risk Option-adjusted spread (OAS) accounts for factors that potentially affect the likelihood and frequency of call and prepayments Static spread is the yield premium, in percent, that (when added to Treasury zero coupon spot rates along the yield curve) equates the present value of the estimated cash flows for the security with options equal to the prevailing price of the matched-maturity Treasury 269 Total Return and Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis of Securities with Options Option-Adjusted Spread OAS represents the incremental yield earned by investors from a security with options over the Treasury spot curve, after accounting for when and at what price the embedded options will be exercised OAS analysis is one procedure to estimate how much an investor is being compensated for selling an option to the issuer of a security with options OAS is often calculated as an incremental yield relative to the LIBOR swap curve 270 Total Return and Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis of Securities with Options Option-Adjusted Spread The approach starts with estimating Treasury spot rates (zero coupon Treasury rates) using a probability distribution and Monte Carlo simulation, identifying a large number of possible interest rate scenarios over the time period that the security’s cash flows will appear 271 Total Return and Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis of Securities with Options Option-Adjusted Spread The analysis then assigns probabilities to various cash flows based on the different interest rate scenarios For mortgages, one needs a prepayment model and for callable bonds, one needs rules and prices indicating when the bonds will be called and at what values 272 273 274 Comparative Yields on Taxable versus Tax-Exempt Securities Interest on most municipal securities is exempt from federal income taxes and, depending on state law, from state income taxes Some states exempt all municipal interest Most states selectively exempt interest from municipals issued in-state but tax interest on out-of-state issues Other states either tax all municipal interest or do not impose an income tax 275 Comparative Yields on Taxable versus Tax-Exempt Securities Capital gains on municipals are taxed as ordinary income under the federal income tax code This makes discount municipals less attractive than par municipals because a portion of the return, the price appreciation, is fully taxable When making investment decisions, portfolio managers compare expected risk-adjusted after-tax returns from alternative investments 276 Comparative Yields on Taxable versus Tax-Exempt Securities After-Tax and Tax-Equivalent Yields Once the investor has determined the appropriate maturity and risk security, the investment decision involves selecting the security with the highest after-tax yield 277 Comparative Yields on Taxable versus Tax-Exempt Securities After-Tax and Tax-Equivalent Yields Tax-exempt and taxable securities can be compared as: R m R t (1 t) where: Rm = pretax yield on a municipal security Rt = pretax yield on a taxable security t = investor’s marginal federal income tax rate 278 Comparative Yields on Taxable versus Tax-Exempt Securities After-Tax and Tax-Equivalent Yields Example Let: Rm = 5.75% Rt = 7.50% Marginal Tax Rate = 34% 279 Comparative Yields on Taxable versus Tax-Exempt Securities After-Tax and Tax-Equivalent Yields Example The investor would choose the municipal because it pays a higher after tax return: Rm Rt = 5.75% after taxes = 7.50% (1 - 0.34) = 4.95% after taxes 280 Comparative Yields on Taxable versus Tax-Exempt Securities After-Tax and Tax-Equivalent Yields Marginal Tax Rates Implied in the Taxable - Tax-Exempt Spread If taxable securities and tax-exempt securities are the same for all other reasons then: t* = 1 - (Rm / Rt) where Rm = pretax yield on a municipal security Rt = pretax yield on a taxable security 281 Comparative Yields on Taxable versus Tax-Exempt Securities After-Tax and Tax-Equivalent Yields Marginal Tax Rates Implied in the Taxable - Tax-Exempt Spread t* represents the marginal tax rate at which an investor would be indifferent between a taxable and a tax-exempt security equal for all other reasons Higher marginal tax rates or high tax individuals (companies) will prefer taxexempt securities 282 Comparative Yields on Taxable versus Tax-Exempt Securities After-Tax and Tax-Equivalent Yields Example Let: Rm = 5.75% Rt = 7.50% Marginal Tax Rate = 34% 5.75% t 1 23.33% 7.50% * An investor would be indifferent between these two investment alternatives if her marginal tax rate were 23.33% 283 Comparative Yields on Taxable versus Tax-Exempt Securities After-Tax and Tax-Equivalent Yields Municipals and State & Local Taxes The analysis is complicated somewhat when state and local taxes apply to municipal securities: m R m (t t ) R t [1 (t t m )] 284 Comparative Yields on Taxable versus Tax-Exempt Securities After-Tax and Tax-Equivalent Yields Municipals and State & Local Taxes Many analysts compare securities on a pre-tax basis To compare municipals on a tax equivalent basis (pre-tax): R m (t t m ) Tax Equivalent Yield 1 (t m t) 285 Comparative Yields on Taxable versus Tax-Exempt Securities The Yield Comparison for Commercial Banks Assume a bank portfolio manager wants to compare potential returns between a taxable security and a municipal security that currently yield 10% and 8%, respectively Both securities are new issues trading at $10,000 par with identical maturities, call treatment, and default risk The primary difference is that the bank pays federal income taxes at a 34% marginal rate on the taxable security while municipal interest is entirely exempt 286 Comparative Yields on Taxable versus Tax-Exempt Securities The Yield Comparison for Commercial Banks The portfolio manager would earn more in after-tax interest from buying the municipal 8%(1 − 0) = 8% > 10%(1 − 0.34) = 6.6% 287 288 Comparative Yields on Taxable versus Tax-Exempt Securities The Effective Tax on Incremental Municipal Interest Earned by Commercial Banks Prior to 1983, banks could deduct the full amount of interest paid on liabilities used to finance the purchase of muni's After 1983 15% was not deductible and after 1984 20% was not deductible 289 Comparative Yields on Taxable versus Tax-Exempt Securities The Effective Tax on Incremental Municipal Interest Earned by Commercial Banks The 1986 tax reform act made 100% not deductible except for qualified muni's, small issue (less than $10 million) The loss of interest expense deductibility is like an implicit tax on the bank's holding of municipal securities 290 Comparative Yields on Taxable versus Tax-Exempt Securities The Effective Tax on Incremental Municipal Interest Earned by Commercial Banks To calculate after tax yields on muni's, if interest expense is not fully deductible, calculate the bank’s effective tax rate on municipals (tm): t muni Pooled %not state and local income tax rate tr interest Deductable cost R muni 291 Comparative Yields on Taxable versus Tax-Exempt Securities Example: Assume t =34%, 20% Not Deductible 7.5% Pooled Interest Cost Rmuni = 7%. t muni (0.34) (0.20) (0.075) 0 6.38% 0.08 at R muni 8.0 (1 0.0638) 7.49% 292 The Impact of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 The TRA of 1986 created two classes of municipals Qualified Nonqualified Municipals After 1986, banks could no longer deduct interest expenses associated with municipal investments, except for qualified municipal issues 293 The Impact of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 Qualified versus Non-Qualified Municipals Qualified Municipals Banks can still deduct 80 percent of the interest expense associated with the purchase of certain small issue publicpurpose bonds (bank qualified) Nonqualified Municipals All municipals that do not meet the qualified criteria 294 The Impact of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 Qualified versus Non-Qualified Municipals Municipals issued before August 7, 1986, retain their tax exemption; i.e., can still deduct 80 percent of their associated financing costs (grandfathered in) 295 The Impact of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 Example: Implied tax on a bank’s purchase of nonqualified municipal securities (100% lost deduction) Assume t =34% 20% not deductible 7.5% pooled interest cost Rmuni = 7% 296 The Impact of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 Example: t muni (0.34) (1.00) (0.075) 0 31.88% 0.08 at R muni 8.0 (1 0.3188) 5.45% 297 Strategies Underlying Security Swaps Active portfolio strategies also enable banks to sell securities prior to maturity whenever economic conditions dictate that returns can be earned without a significant increase in risk 298 Strategies Underlying Security Swaps When a bank sells a security at a loss prior to maturity, because interest rates have increased, the loss is a deductible expense At least a portion of the capital loss is reduced by the tax-deductibility of the loss 299 300 Strategies Underlying Security Swaps Security Swap Example Tax Savings: = (2,000,000 - 1,926,240) * 0.35 = 25,816 After Tax Proceeds = 1,926,240 + 25,816 = 1,952,056 Present Value of the Difference: 14,075 47,944 14,075 PV $35,380 t 6 1.061 t 1 1.061 6 301 Strategies Underlying Security Swaps In general, banks can effectively improve their portfolios by: Upgrading bond credit quality by shifting into high-grade instruments when quality yield spreads are low Lengthening maturities when yields are expected to level off or decline Obtaining greater call protection when management expects rates to fall 302 Strategies Underlying Security Swaps In general, banks can effectively improve their portfolios by: Improving diversification when management expects economic conditions to deteriorate Generally increasing current yields by taking advantage of the tax savings Shifting into taxable securities from municipals when management expects losses 303