INFORMATION OPERATIONS:
All Information, All Languages, All the Time
The New Semantics of War & Peace, Wealth & Democracy
Author’s Briefing
Robert David Steele Vivas
MA MPA NWC USMC CIA OSS
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Third Title in Series
Works in Progress:
2007 Commercial Intelligence
by Mats Bjore (Gray Book)
2007 Peacekeeping Intelligence
Edited with Col Jan-Inge
Svensson of Sweden
2008 Information Peacekeeping
by Steele (UN Blue Book)
Edited Work
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Highlights
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Foreword by Congressman Rob Simmons
Technical Preface by Dr. Robert Garigue
Connects Strategic IO with Tactical GWOT
Defines Six “IO-Heavy” Mission Areas
Summarizes the Information Challenges
Provides Strategic Concept for M4IS
Defines OSIS-X as a Global Solution
Provides Annotated “Reality” Bibliography
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Why Now?
• Information Operations Roadmap 2003
– Excellent idea, incomplete, needs “heart,” must transform IO from bullshit
to beliefs—deception & manipulation are TIRED. Truth is WIRED.
– STRATCOM has potential if it turns away from beltway bandit pathologies
• USDI dared to want it all—truly inspiring & transformational
• SOCOM demonstrated totality of the “pit,” paucity of intelligence alone
• CISCO showed growth of machine speed information creation and
interchange—no one Nation, however rich, can get a grip all alone
• CENTCOM makes Multinational Information Operations a possibility
• L-3 Tampa identified & integrated key enablers
– Machine translation for screening not reading
– Advanced analytics for early warning & predictive analysis
• Everything that could go wrong, is going wrong…
• Information Operations could and should save the Republic
– Tools for Truth, Sharing of Truth = Informed Democracy
– Transparency & Sharing Kill Corruption, Nurture Moral Capitalism
– Global Indigenous Legitimate Wealth through Information Sharing is the
ONLY Stabilizing Factor that is Affordable, Sustainable, and Attainable
Copyright © OSS Open Access
The Strategic Objective
The DoD Global Information Coverage program, under
the leadership of USSTRATCOM and in support of
the COCOMs and all DoD policy, acquisition, and
operations leaders, will:
1. Correctly assess the nature of the global conflict.
Dr. Col (Ret)
Max Manwaring
2. Understand the strategic environment within which
this global conflict is taking place.
3. Identify and address the centers of gravity; most
non-military.
4. Understand and address all facets of US, coalition,
and hostile party legitimacy.
5. Provide information helpful to fostering global interagency and coalition campaigns.
6. Provide metrics for measuring IO inputs, outputs, and
outcomes at all four levels of analysis (strategic,
operational, tactical, and technical)
7. Provide predictive analysis to stop second-generation
terrorism while stabilizing & reconstructing the world.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
M
a
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Six IO-Heavy Mission Areas
Seven Communities of Interest
1.
Strategic Communication &
Public Diplomacy
2.
Peacekeeping Intelligence &
Information Peacekeeping
3.
Early Warning & StabilizationReconstruction Operations
4.
Homeland Defense & Civil
Support
5.
National Education & National
Research (Defense-Related)
6.
Defense Acquisition &
Logistics (Build-Buy-Bring)
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Congressman Simmons
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General Schoomaker got it in 1997 (SOC)
General Kernan got it in 2000 (NATO)
40 countries ahead of US
Dr. Stephen Cambone (USDI) has it right!
– Universal coverage, 24/7, all languages,
neighborhood levels of granularity
• Four key points:
R-CT-02, 3rd Term
HASC, Homeland
Security Chairman,
Subcommittee on
Intelligence, Information
Sharing, and Terrorism
Risk Assessment
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100 year six front total war demands IO++
Sharing rather than secrecy wins
Need national Open Source Agency
Need Open Source Software solutions
• For affordable state & local sharing
• For affordable NGO/coalition sharing
• IO is central to DoD mission and HS
• Need IO architecture to educate citizens
and also collect “bottom up” defensive dots
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Dr. Robert Garigue, Canada
• Computers create and destroy knowledge
• Computers are in their infancy
• Three forms of IW:
– Physical IW—denial of service
– Syntactical IW—corruption & confusion
– Semantic IW—belief systems
• VP for Information Integrity
and Chief Security Executive
Bell Canada
• Created the IW framework for
the Canadian forces (LtCdr RN)
• Chairman of the Government
of Canada Council for
Information Protection
• Chairman of the Canadian
Financial Information Security
Executives
• IO creates organizational efficacy
• Knowledge can deter conflict and create
stabilizing wealth—ultimate source of power
• Data is getting smart—comes with attributes
• Data with history & context more valuable
• IP is about belief systems—undermining bad
ones and reinforcing good ones
• IO = IW + IP, killing “bad” sites is not enough
• Need to Ramp Up IP and spread “good” ideas
• World Brain is a Reality—We Need to Grow Up
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Author’s Preface (Bottom Line)
• Inter-agency sharing of nonsecrets more important than
secrets for the President
• Unclassified information on beliefs,
reality, operations, logistics more
important than secret technical
information
• 30 years overseas as son of oilman, USMC
infantry officer, spy, and intelligence coach
• Created Marine Corps Intelligence Command
• #1 Amazon reviewer of global issues books
• Modern IO is about Global
Coverage, 24/7 that leads to
sharing, understanding, foresight
and crafting of BUDGETS &
BEHAVIOR that make sense and
achieve desired outcomes in near,
mid, and long-term.
• PEACE & PROSPERITY are not
easy—they require ethical constant
thought & application.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Global Secret Intelligence Failure
Breakdown in Collection and Understanding
Digital
English
Language
Analog
Oral/Unpublished
NRO
NSA
FBIS
Foreign
Languages*
UN/STATE
CIA/DO
Cascading Deficiencies:
1) Don’t even try to access most information
2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital
3) Can’t translate most of what we collect
*33 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages, and
twelve critical Arabic dialects we do not do well at all.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Global Total Processing Failure
Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination
More Satisfying
50%
Less Costly
Does Not Exist
OSINT
HUMINT
STATE
SIGINT
IMINT
MASINT
0%
Copyright © OSS Open Access
50%
This is a common-sense contrast we can exploit!
ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS
HUMINT
SIGINT
IMINT
MASINT
95% of cost
20% of value
5% of cost
80% of value
OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE
OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Baseball Analogy
Harnessing the Power of the Crowd
OSINT
HUMINT
SIGINT
IMINT
MASINT
Copyright © OSS Open Access
QDR 2006 Shift in Focus
• OLD
• NEW
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State-based threats
State-on-state combat
One force for all
Reactive
Static garrison forces
“Battle-ready”
One major conflict
Stovepiped services
Focus on hardware
User finds data
US military does it all
DoD rules the roost
Transnational networks
Safe havens within states
Tailored deterrence options
Proactive preventive action
Mobile, expeditionary
“Battle-hardened”
Multiple irregular operations
Joint/coalition operations
Focus on knowledge/intelligence
Data finds user (CISCO AON)
Deep coalition partnerships
Inter-agency campaigns
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Understanding the Threat
“Big War” is 10% Probable, Takes 90% of $
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USMC knew all this in 1988
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QDR 2006 is 18 years late but finally!!
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Four threats require:
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Four mind-sets
Four forces
Four strategies
Four campaigns
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Unity of Effort (both inter-agency &
coalition/non-governmental
organization) is not possible without a
Global Common Operational Picture
(GCOP) that is NOT Secret!
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Sharing, not secrecy, is the operative
principle for unity/victory
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US Industrial-Congressional corruption
is our worst enemy, blocks change
Copyright © OSS Open Access
New Strategy: 1 + iii:
Need better balance within national security.
1
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CINCWAR
CINCSOLIC
CINCPEACE
CINCHOME
Strategic NBC
Small Wars
State/USIA
Intelligence
Big War(s)
Constabulary
Peace Corps
Border Patrol
Reserve
Ground Truth
Economic Aid
Port Security
Reserve
Environment
Electronic
Peace Navy
Public Health
50%
250B vs. 400B
15%
20%
75B vs 20B
100B vs. 20B
Copyright © OSS Open Access
15%
75B vs. 32B
Understanding the Real World
100-year 6-front total war
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Arabic, Aramaic, Berber, Catelan,
Chinese, Danish, Dari, Dutch, English,
Farsi, Finnish, French, German,
Indonesian, Irish, Italian, Japanese,
Korean, Kurdish, Kurmanji, Norwegian,
Pashto, Polish, Portuguese, Russian,
Serbian, Spanish, Swedish, Tamil,
Turkish, Urdu—minimal mandatory
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Arabic variations: Andalusi Arabic (extinct,
but important role in literary history);
Egyptian Arabic (Egypt) considered the
most widely understood and used "second
dialect"; Gulf Arabic (Gulf coast from
Kuwait to Oman, and minorities on the
other side); Hassaniiya (in Mauritania);
Hijazi Arabic; Iraqi Arabic; Levantine
Arabic (Syrian, Lebanese, Palestinian,
and western Jordanian); Maghreb Arabic
(Tunisian, Algerian, Moroccan, and
western Libyan); Maltese; Najdi Arabic;
Sudanese Arabic (with a dialect
continuum into Chad); and Yemeni Arabic.
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You either get with the program or lose.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Neighborhoods, Not Nations
This is the level of analysis for the long war
The other rules are in THE NEW CRAFT OF INTELLIGENCE.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Modern Analysis 101
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Absent this model, it is not possible to be effective at integrated long-term analysis.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Modern Analysis 102
• We need to stop wasting
money on costly US “butts
in seats” lacking deep
historical, cultural,
linguistic, or real-life
foreign area expertise.
• It’s time to get serious
about global psycho-social
analysis in depth.
• We cannot do it alone—we
must go to multinational IO
in full collaboration with all
relevant NGOs.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Situational Awareness
We Geo-Tag, RDF, OWL, & SOAP Everything
• Used with
permission.
• XML-Geo
• RDF
• OWL
• SOAP
• OHS*
• And a few
other things
the beltway
bandits have
not thought
about…..
* Open Hyperdocument System from Doug Englebart—allows citation analysis
linkage at the paragraph level, and copyright compensation at the micro-cash level.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
A Revolution is Underway
Distributed Ubiquitous Collective Intelligence Now Possible—We MUST Go “Multinational”
TOP-DOWN
COMMAND & CONTROL
OLD
SINGLE-CULTURE
SINGLE-ORGANIZATION
EQUITIES
LEADERS
DECIDE
SECRET
SOURCES & METHODS
OBSCURE DETAIL
TIME
IMPACT
SHORT
TIME
IMPACT
LONG
OBVIOUS DETAIL
OPEN
SOURCES & METHODS
PEOPLE
DECIDE
MULTI-CULTURAL &
TRANS-NATIONAL
EQUITIES
Copyright © OSS Open Access
NEW
BOTTOM-UP
INFORMATION-SHARING
OLD PARADIGM
NEW PARADIGM
Historical
Memory
3
2
1 Present
You Are
Here...
Near
Future
Far
Future
# = Your Top Issues,
Local, National, Global
Copyright © OSS Open Access
OLD PARADIGM
NEW PARADIGM
Secrecy rules
Elites rules
Act on 2% of the info.
Public
Memory
People complacent
3
2
1 Reality
You Are
Here...
Short-term view
Unilateral militarism
Immoral capitalism
Big stick works BUT
Long-term cost not
visible to public
Foreign
Viewpoints
Gaming
Future
ROIs
Reality-Based Behavior & Budgets
Copyright © OSS Open Access
The Information Marketplace
Threat
Public
Diplomacy &
Strategic
Communication
IC &
USG
Policy
Acquisition of
Right Stuff at
Right Time
Budget
State &
Local
OSIS-X
Foreign
Governments
& NGOs
Corporations
Policy World
Client World
Budget not based on threat.
Only a fraction of clients are served.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Status of the Tribes Today
We Must Transfer Proven Legal Ethical DecisionSupport (Intelligence) Process to All
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Objective
National
Military
Business
Academic
NGO-Media
Religious
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National
Military
Business
Academic
Law Enforcement
NGO-Media
Religious
50%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
20%
We have much to do.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Success Story: Dutch OSINT
P2P file sharing
Email matters
more than www
instant messaging
email
CISCO
IPICS
Converts
Tactical
Radio to
Digital
Packets
deep web
Surface web is
NOT the Internet
(Deep web plus)
surface Web
Internet
TV
radio
Merging with Internet
telephone
optical
magnetic
film
Books down, still matter as history
print
0
500.000
1.000.000 1.500.000 2.000.000 2.500.000 3.000.000 3.500.000 4.000.000 4.500.000 5.000.000
print
film
magnetic
optical
lower
327
74.202
3.416.230
51
upper
1.634
420.254
4.999.230
103
telephone
radio
TV
3.488
39.841
3.488
68.955
Internet
surface Web
deep web
email
532.897
167
91.850
440.606
Copyright © OSS Open Access
instant
P2P file
messaging
sharing
274
0
Success Story: Swedish OSINT
• Began with one Maj
(today LtCol), today fills
up a basement in storage
and aggregate sensemaking software
• Works in all languages,
manages global cover
stories, gets technical
information directly from
all manufacturers
including Chinese and
Russians
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Success Story: South African OSINT
• First to combine
appreciation of both open
source software as
affordable, and open
source intelligence as
trust building measure
• Only leader of a
continent-wide early
warning and open source
information sharing
system
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Success Story: UK OSINT
• Started with just one
detective constable
• Leveraged global
network of pro bono
advisors, many met at
OSS.Net conferences
• Cut cost of finding
terrorist hide-outs
from L3000/day to
L30 in an hour by
using OSINT
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Peace & Prosperity Can Be Achieved By
Changing When & How We Intervene
• Public warning can
change public policy
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More Prevention
More Peacekeeping
More Education
More Long-Term Aid
Less Corruption
Less Censorship
• We have a sacred duty.
Between OSIS-X and MIOCs, World Brain is Possible
Copyright © OSS Open Access
New Craft of Intelligence
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.
Narrowly focused!
I
IV
Lessons of History
Spies & Secrecy
II
III
Global Coverage
National Intelligence
Cost-Sharing with Others-Shared Early Warning
Harness distributed
intelligence of Nation
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Information for All Four Levels
Strategic
Planning
• History
• Context
Operational
Coordination
• Current Awareness
• Key Personalities/Motivators
Tactical
Employment
This is about
information superiority
across the board, not
just enhancing allsource intelligence!
• Imagery & Image Maps
• Translation Support
Acquisition
Design
Copyright © OSS Open Access
• Strategic Generalizations
• Critical Technologies
SECRET BIG DATA
NOT SECRET BIG DATA
• NSA-NGA
• UN, Red Cross, NGOs…
• SAIC
• NASA , public geospatial
• HARRIS
• Factiva
• NG-MS
SECRET
DISTRIBUTED DATA
S
I
P
R
N
E
T
Open
Source
Information
System –
External
(OSIS-X)
• LEXIS-NEXIS
NOT SECRET
DISTRIBUTED DATA
• Intelink
• CISCO
• ARDA
• Google/Libraries
• ITIC
• Amazon Inside the Book
• JHU/APL
• Napster Plus
Copyright © OSS Open Access
DGI: Director of Global Information GIC: Global Intelligence Council GSC: Global Strategy Council
Side Benefit:
Provides USG
with global
cultural and
educational
leverage at
home and
abroad
Intelink-X
USA DGI, GIC, GSC
World Intelligence Network
Side Benefit:
Conflict
Deterrence &
Resolution via
Early Warning
& Information
Peacekeeping
USA Earns Nobels Across S&T
Funded by DoD, Fed By OSIS-X
GPS RFID-X (All Devices, People, Locations)
OSIS-X (Global Nations, Organizations, & Individuals)
General Al Gray: “Communications without intelligence is noise; intelligence without communications is irrelevant.
Peter Drucker (paraphrase): We’ve spent 50 years on the T in IT, now it is time we spent 50 years on the I in IT.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Education Everywhere
All Levels
United Nations
Law Enforcement
All NGOs, World Bank, IMF
Beginning with Interpol
and drilling down locally
Goal is all UN information including
Any institution agreeing to upload the bulk of its open
in all countries, we
field reports in real time, beginning
research information including all student dissertations
give them OSIS-X
with complex PKI of DoD interest
to OSIS-X gets access to OSIS-X and to the toolkit
free to obtain
and networking of all NGO
(registering for the toolkit recruits the individual mind “
privacy OK &
We get their organizations
eyes & ears on the ground.
by name” into the global network. All students everywhere
protection
to pay for access, but we
are on tap, not just for knowledge creation, but for direct
world-wide.
find a way to recruit
1PB/Yr 1
observation and nuanced evaluation. Later this allows us to
GWOT data
them as individuals
change the educational paradigm to mix distance leaning,
benefits.
to meet our
5 PB/Yr 2
on-demand tutorials, help buttons for any task, and social
client needs
10 PB/Yr 3
networking as needed. Above the cash line, we focus on
on the side.
restoring education and research as the engines for wealth
production through knowledge creation. Below the cash line, we
focus on intellectual property creation, management, exploitation.
Labor Unions & Religions
Journalists
Citizens & Advocacy Groups
Pay with information
$1B/Yr 3
Pay with cash & information
$111B/Yr 10
U.S. Based Corporations
It’s no longer about the collection of information or
Most of them don’t get it yet—stuck in
the communication of information. The next big
IT or KM, internally focused.
DoD
Spending $15B a year now on data
thing is about the connection of dots to dots, dots
USG
mining and related IT-driven ideas.
to people, and people to people. We do this with
$250M/Yr 1
an intelligent network and a focus on semantic
Two tracks: one with our
10X DoD
team members and
web/synthetic information architecture technology,
$500M/Yr 2
their best big clients,
and the empowerment of individuals so that they
with 1-3 year
the other
$1B/Yr 3
can create and share knowledge in real time
commoditizing
without organizational, legal, security, cultural,
for small
lag
time.
$1B is half what USDI was
or language impediments.
businesses.
prepared to authorize at FOC
The next slide shows the OSS value concept,
the “I” side of the IT equation. SANITIZED
for OSINT alone. We go for JOICs,
OSINT, & integrated man-machine OMB pursuing “common solutions”
approach. We give them our model,
Foreign Language Conversion in a
funded by DoD, for all of USG with
coherent manner that creates added
NORTHCOM as hinge and DHS as
value for each contract, a compelling
the ultimate beneficiary. The language
sales point and a barrier to entry for our
capability can help us capture 911 now.
competitors
miss
the big
picture.
Copyrightwho
© OSS
Open
Access
Focus of Global Effort
Strategic Forecasting
10% Need, 40% Cost
Top
Secret
Primary Research &
Experts on Demand
20% Need, 30% Cost
Tribal
Secret
Help Desk (Tell Me
More Right Now)
30% Need, 20% Cost
Partial Sharing
Shared Among Tribes
Daily/Weekly Reports
40% Need, 10% Cost
This extraordinary depiction is from Jan Herring, one of the top ten I look up to.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Teams Crossing All
Boundaries
Expert Forum
Shared
Shared
Calendar
Rolodex
Distance
Learning
OPG
VPN
Shared
24/7 Plot
Virtual
Library
Virtual
Budget
Weekly Review
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Inter-Agency Collaboration
80% Unclassified Information
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SERVICE
CLUSTER
INTELLIGENCE
CLUSTER
?
?
R2
NGO
CLUSTER
CG
J-2
J-3
SOJICC
J-1
MP
J-5
CA
J-4
Eng
?
CIVIL
CLUSTER
?
J-6
IT
LEA
CLUSTER
COALITION
CLUSTER
?
?
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Copyright © OSS Open Access
OVERVIEW
Start with an overview of what is happening in general in you regional area.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
FOCUS ON A COUNTRY – VIEW 360
Start with an overview of what is happening in general in your assigned country
Copyright © OSS Open Access
FOCUS ON AN ORGANIZATION
See specifics of people, places, etcetera with frequency of mention
Copyright © OSS Open Access
FOCUS ON A PERSON
Photos, Quotations, Links to Others, Key Details
Copyright © OSS Open Access
GET NEW INSIGHTS
This is the only global information service that integrates sources with tools
Copyright © OSS Open Access
READ IN DEPTH, IN CONTEXT
Anything can be sent to the “scrapbook” where other tools can be applied
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Teen-Agers are Center of Gravity
Faith Matters-Zealotry Kills
• World War III will be fought in the hearts and
minds of teen-agers
• Half the brain—the half that can understand
“other” views—dies by the age of 35
• Morality self-directs between the ages of 25 and
35—that’s when the brain matures
• Faith matters—not ideological zealotry, but a
belief in the Golden Rule and respect for cultural
and religious paths chosen by others over the
course of centuries.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Book on Sale Now
• Amazon will sell you this
book for $34.95.
• OSS.Net will provide it by
the case of 16 at 25%
discount.
• War colleges may but the
book at 50% discount for
orders of 100 or more
books.
• Same terms for the other
books in the series.
Copyright © OSS Open Access
Spread the Word
Robert David Steele Vivas
CEO, OSS.Net, Inc.
Intelligence Coach
CALL for email (unlisted)
CALL for email (public)
703.242.1700 voice
703.242.1711 fax
Use MoveOn.Org OSINT
topic to self-organize
everywhere in the world
Author will speak for sushi.
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