A Breakfast
Round-Table
Business Outllook IN
CHI NA
WORLD TRADE GROUP. LLP.
WORLD TRADE GROUP, LLP.
WORLD TRADE GROUP, LLP.
Economic Indicators
Annual Growth Rates
25
GDP
20
15
CPI
Urban Income
Rural Income
10
5
0
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
19
96 5
19 99
-1
90
19
-5
WORLD TRADE GROUP. LLP.
Comparative GDP Growth
( 3.9% of global GDP / 15% of global growth )
9
1999
Annual GDP Growth (%)
8
2000
7
2001
6
2002
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
China
Aisa-Pacific
w/o China
US
World
Economic Growth -- 2002
Policies driving growth:
Expansion of “socialist market economy”
 Rapid Emergence of private sector

 1.32
million private companies
 300% increase in # of employees over 5 years
Continued Overhaul of SOE’s
 Emphasis on export trading
 Clean-up of capital markets

Economic Growth -- 2002
Market sectors driving growth
Manufacturing – 35% of GDP
 Exports – 26% of GDP
 Infrastructure expansion 10% – 15% of GDP
 Foreign investment – $52 billion
 Capital Markets

Domestic
consumption
Government Initiatives and Projects
 SOE overhaul and privatization
 Financial services




Banking overhaul
Insurance services
Asset management
Investment services
 Agricultural modernization
Government Initiatives and Projects
-- continued
 Home ownership – 30% growth
 Technology development
 Developing Western provinces
 Infrastructure projects (water / waste / roads
/ power / airports / Yangtze project)
 Environmental clean up – 1% of GDP
 2008 Olympics
 2010 World Expo
New Milestones -- 2002
 8% GDP growth – largest globally
 #1 in foreign investment - $52 billion
 24% increase in domestic investment
 #1 in cell phone users – 200 million
 #2 in Internet users – 59 million
 #4 in auto sales – 3.2 million
 Foreign investment in stock markets
 2010 World Expo
Change in Leadership
Hu Jintao
New Chairman of Central Committee – CCP
 President – March, 2003
 Maoist leanings and ideals
 Rejuvenation of Party
 Continuation of private sector expansion
 “Spreading the growth” to inner Provinces
 Social security and health care benefits

Major Exports - 2002
Apparel, clothing & footwear
Machinery, parts & transportation equip.
Textiles & yarn
Chemical industrial products
Furniture, housewares, toys, handicrafts
Food stuffs
Electrical equipment & parts
Major Imports - 2002
Electrical equipment & parts
Machinery & parts
Transportation equip.
Crude oil and fuels
Plastics and plastic articles
China’s Leading Markets
US
HK
JAPAN
EU
OTHER
WORLD TRADE GROUP. LLP.
China’s Major Suppliers
US
TAIWAN
JAPAN
EU
OTHER
WORLD TRADE GROUP. LLP.
Table 1: China's Trade with the World
($ billion)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Exports
151
182
183
194
249
266
Imports
138
142
140
165
225
243
Total
289
325
324
360
474
509
2002
550
Table 5: China's Trade with the United States
($ billion)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
US Exports
12.0
12.8
14.3
13.1
16.3
19.1
US Imports
51.5
62.5
71.2
81.8
100.1
102.2
Total
63.5
75.3
85.4
94.9
116.4
121.3
2002
WORLD TRADE GROUP. LLP.
Florida Trading Partners: GDP Growth
10
Annual GDP Growth 1990-2000
Annual GDP Growth 2000-2010
8
6
4
2
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WORLD TRADE GROUP. LLP.
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B
Percentage Growth
12
Continued Foreign Corporate
Expansions in China
Walmart
Kfc / Pizza Hut
Heinz / P&G
MacDonalds
Office 1 Superstore
Home Depot
Honda / Mitsubishi /
VW / GM
Intel
Microsoft
Computer Associates
DuPont
Rockwell
Toshiba
Embraer Aviation
World Trade Group
China’s Big 3 Trading Centers
Beijing / Tianjin
Shanghai / Jiangsu /
Zhejiang
Guangdong / Shenzhen
Other
WORLD TRADE GROUP. LLP.
Rogers Towers Bailey Jones & Gay
China’s Work Force Allocation
(percentage of work force)
60
50
40
Industry and commerce
agriculture and forestry
30
20
10
0
other
China’s Labor Supply
Labor cost
1999
2000
2001
2002
0.42
0.44
0.44
0.50
7.0
6.0
????
8.0
????
USD / hour
Recorded
5.50
Unemployment
*
* Does not include 150 mil. Underemployed in rural areas
Manufacturing Wages: China
vs. Latin America (USD)
7607
Mexico
7338
Argentina
3738
Uruguay
2658
Honduras
1802
Guatemala
780
China
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Labor Over-Supply
At current GDP growth rate:
8 million new jobs / yr
Current annual rate of new workers:
12 million / yr.
Major WTO – Related Changes
in 2002
Tariffs
Quotas and other non-tariff barriers
Anti-dumping / overproduction
Enhanced IP protection and enforcement
Transparency rules and systems
Accelerated Clean up of banking and securities
markets
“Opening
up service industries
Services Opening up with WTO
Sales and distribution
3rd party Logistics
Telecom
Banking and finance
Insurance
Construction and
development
Project consulting
Engineering
Architecture
Environmental
Legal services
Education / training
Travel services
Employment agencies
Franchising
Chinese Legal Changes - 2002
Over 200 new or changed laws





Joint ventures and wholly-owned subsidiaries
Patent, trademark and copyright laws
Foreign investment
Import / export, distribution, franchising
Stock markets
Thousands of implementing regulations
Training of attorneys and judges
A Breakfast
Round-Table
Business Outllook IN
CHI NA
Break
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Panel Members
William Cobb – Coastal Industries
Ken Overman – Hunter Marine
Sasha Yang – World Trade Group
Mike Bellamy – PassageMaker
Bill Rhey – JU College of Bus.
Jeff Michelman – UNF College of Bus.
Arthur Chiang – FCCJ
A Breakfast
Round-Table
Business Outllook IN
CHI NA
End
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