ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF CONCRETE May 2009 CONCRETE VALUE CHAIN IS FACING A UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY TO POSITION ITSELF AS THE SUSTAINABLE SOLUTION Description Implications • Obama administration showing determination on environmental policy Importance of Sustainability • It is an important aspect of the stimulus package • New regulation expected at different levels • Sustainability is not a fad, but rather a necessary part in all aspects of life • Topic of high relevance for the general public Perception Adequate Arguments • Negative perception of cement industry is the #1 challenge - High total emissions make cement a problem • Looking only at production emissions may be shortsighted • Lifecycle assessments are key for sustainability • Concrete value chain is of significant value to society • Irreplaceable in many applications • Benefits of concrete far outweigh initial construction emissions -2- FOCUS OF THIS PRESENTATION WILL BE ON ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS OF CONCRETE In applications that have competing materials and represent most of the volume USA Cement Consumption(1) 3.7% 2.0% 9.8% 4.1% Non Construction Utilities Water & Waste 6.5% Public Works Bridges 4.4% Public Bldgs 14.3% Cement Alternatives No Alternative % Consumption 15.5% Commercial Partial Substitution 29.9% Residential 25.3% Streets & Hwys 59.2% Comments • Applications ranging from oil wells to dams are not suited for other construction materials • Some elements of the construction can be done with other materials (i.e. building envelop) • But slabs among others can only be made from concrete Possible Substitution 25.3% • It is possible to make construction entirely of competing materials Segments (1) PCA 2007 Data -3- AGENDA Concrete Pavements Concrete Wall Systems Next Steps -4- PAVEMENT DESIGNS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON ROAD USE AND SOIL CONDITIONS AMONG OTHER THINGS Examples of Concrete Designs Examples of Asphalt Designs 0.75-1.5” Frict. Course 5.5” Asphalt Ty-SP 12” Limerock Base Course (LBR = 100) 9.5” Asphalt Superpave 10” Aggregate Base Course 12.0” PCC Jointed w/ Dowels 4” ATPB non-structural 1” Asph. Struc. Layer 12” Type-B Stabilized Subgrade (LBR=40) 14” Aggregate Subbase Course Subgrade Subgrade 12” Type-B Stabilized Subgrade (LBR=40) Subgrade 12.0” PCC Jointed w/ Dowels 12.0” PCC Jointed w/ Dowels 12.0” PCC Jointed w/ Dowels 1” Asphalt Interlayer 6” Aggregate Base Course 6” Cement Treated Base Course 4” Asphalt Treated Base Course Subgrade Subgrade Subgrade Research efforts could focus on most common design types -5- HISTORICALLY ASPHALT HAD THE INITIAL COST ADVANTAGE Even with recent asphalt prices decline, difference has narrowed Asphalt mix prices have increased 96% since 2000(1) Concrete Initial cost gap has decreased, but still remains high 300 22% Asphalt Mix Price 250 M$ 200 Concrete $36.1 Asphalt 150 $29.5 31% 100 50 $25.2 CAGR 8.5% 0 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 600 $19.2 Bitumen Price 500 400 300 200 100 CAGR 8.8% 0 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 2004 2009 U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/ppi/home.htm Initial costs for 10 miles, 2 lanes & Shoulders Asphalt design: 12” Type-B Stabilized Subgrade, 12” Limerock Base Course, 5.5” Asphalt Ty-SP, 0.75-1.5” Frict. Course 2004: Asphalt = $62.33 / ton, Concrete = $76.05 / CY - 6 - / CY Concrete design: 12” Type-B Stabilized Subgrade, 1” Asph. Structural Layer, 4” ATPB non-structural, 12.0” PCC Jointed w/ Dowels 2009: Asphalt = $85.00 / ton, Concrete = $94.62 ADDITIONALLY, THERE HAVE BEEN TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES IN CONCRETE PAVEMENT DESIGN New design procedure based on advanced models & actual field data collected across the US Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) Description A new mechanistic design procedure based on most advanced pavement performance models Comprehensive methodology that incorporates layer thicknesses, material properties, climate, and traffic loadings It uses mechanistic-empirical numerical models to analyze traffic, climate, materials, and proposed structure to estimate accumulated damage of the analysis period Process Provides predicted performance of a given structure during analysis period AASHTO 93 only provides thickness (no performance) Concrete Criteria = cracking, faulting, IRI, cumulative damage, and load transfer Validation Adopted by AASHTO in 2007 as the Interim Pavement Design Guide Most states are currently in the process of calibrating and validating the design procedure with actual field performance data Improves accuracy of performance prediction for each pavement type Provides “true” performance of each pavement type -7- MEPDG ALLOWS FOR DESIGN OPTIMIZATION Making Concrete’s Initial Cost More Attractive Asphalt Design FDOT Concrete Design Optimized Concrete 0.75-1.5” Frict. Course 5.5” Asphalt Ty-SP 12” Limerock Base Course (LBR = 100) Initial Cost Diff. Asphalt vs. Concrete % Cost Difference 12.0” PCC Jointed w/ Dowels 4” ATPB non-structural 31.5% 9.1% 10.0” PCC Jointed w/ Dowels 1” Asph. Struc. Layer 1.5” Asph. Struc. Layer 12” Type-B Stabilized Subgrade (LBR=40) 12” Type-B Stabilized Subgrade (LBR=40) 12” Limerock Stabilized Base (LBR=70) Subgrade Subgrade Subgrade 19.7% 2.7% Initial Gap Inflation MEPDG New Gap Effect Redesign Initial cost gap is significantly reduced when using MEPDG Initial costs for 10 miles, 2 lanes & Shoulders. Costs include Pavement, base, and subgrade stabilization materials and labor Asphalt = $85.00 / ton, Concrete = $94.62 / CY -8- MOREOVER, CONCRETE DELIVERS SUBSTANTIAL SAVINGS THROUGHOUT THE LIFE CYCLE OF THE ASSET Nominal Expenditures by Pavement Type for 10 Miles Total Cost Net Present Value Concrete Rehab: Patch & diamond grind at years 30 and 45 M$ Asphalt Rehab: 4” AC Overlay in years 14 & 28 2” Mill / 4” AC Overlay in year 42 $103.9 $52.7 54% M$ $34.3 $62.4 $61.1 $35.3 $29.5 $30.3 $20.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 year Discount Rate=8% Asphalt is 54% more expensive than Concrete throughout the life cycle of the road Design – Asphalt: 6.5” AC (inc 1.5” PFC) / 12” Limerock (LBR=100) / 12” Limerock (LBR=40); Concrete: 10” JPCP / 1.5” AC / 12” Limerock (LBR=70) Initial costs - Pavement, base, and subgrade stabilization materials and labor (Asphalt = $85.00 / ton, Concrete = $94.62 / CY) •Rehabilitation - Concrete activities based on MEPDG, Asphalt Activities based on standard FDOT Standards Current year costs are inflated at 4% Rehab costs also include other Incidental Costs (striping, mob, etc) - Assumed to be 40% of Material Costs and Traffic Control - 5% of material cost, Engineering & Inspection - 5% of material cost Asphalt Concrete -9- UP TO THIS POINT, ALL COMPARISONS HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THE SAME INFLATION RATES However, asphalt prices are much more volatile Inflation Rates since Jan 1960 1,800 Month-to-Month Change in PPI since Jan 1960 50% Paving Asphalt Cement Conc. Products 1,600 1,400 40% Asphalt CAGR = 5.9% Cement CAGR = 4.1% Conc. Product CAGR = 4.0% 1,200 1,000 Paving Asphalt Conc. Products Max Asphalt Change = 39.4% Max Concrete Change = 5.1% 30% 20% 800 600 10% 400 0% 200 0 -10% 08 04 00 96 92 88 84 80 76 72 68 64 60 08 04 00 96 92 88 84 80 76 72 68 64 60 Assuming this inflation difference, asphalt’s lifecycle disadvantage to concrete can effectively double Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/ppi/home.htm Paving Asphalt Series ID = wpu13940113 Cement Series ID = wdu13220131 and wpu13220161 Concrete Products Series ID = wpu133 - 10 - SINCE CONCRETE ROADS REQUIRE LESS MAINTENANCE, STATES WOULD HAVE MORE FUNDING FOR NEW CONSTRUCTION Impact of Pavement Choice on State System • Assume a constant $1.0 B budget per year for 50 years with no inflation (Total Cumulative Budget = $50 B) - All funds are initially used for new construction Cumulative 50 year Expenditure Breakdown % - When rehabilitation is required, funds are first used for rehabilitation and the remainder for new construction 55.5 • Consider three pavement choices 97.9 Rehab savings Rehab savings 92.7 - Asphalt - Concrete with traditional design 42.3% - Concrete with MEPDG • Take Florida’s materials and construction cost 44.5 7.3 2.1 Trad. Concrete 37.1% Asphalt MEPDG Concrete • After 50 years, Pavement choice has a great impact on number of Lane Miles constructed in the system Lane Miles Traditional Concrete: Initial Life = 40 years Asphalt: initial Life = 14 year MEPDG Concrete: initial Life = 30 year Concrete & Asphalt Inflation = 4.0% 8,316 Budget allocated for new construction Asphalt Maintenance every 10 yrs 5,849 9,425 Budget required for rehabilitation Budget at year 50 - 11 - ENVIRONMENTALLY SPEAKING, ASPHALT HAS LESS EMBODIED CO2 COMPARED TO CONCRETE IN INITIAL CONSTRUCTION 26% advantage over JPCP and 50% over CRCP for traditional concrete design, while 7% and 31% respectively with MEPDG Concrete Asphalt 238 MT CO2 / Mile Road 1,492 MT CO2 / Mile Road Traditional 87 48 1,067 1,254 25 26 Traditional 102 991 1,022 331 1,301 MEPDG 25 305 Cement Batching Steel 43 185 1,063 MEPDG Bitumen Production Steel Aggregates (Base) Asphalt Plant Operations Total Asphalt (1) Aggregates Installation JPCP CRCP Bitumen Transportation Aggregates Installation (Paving) (1) Inherent Energy: potential energy from reprocessing bitumen into fuels Note: Pavement designs are 12” CRCP/JPCP over 6” Granular Base vs. 9.5” Asphalt over 10”Aggregate base & 14” Aggregate sub base Source: CEMEX USA production data; Portland Cement Association, DOE CO2 emission report; et al Inherent Energy Sensitivity - 12 - BUT USE OF CONCRETE REDUCES CONSTRUCTION EMISSIONS OVER THE LIFE OF THE ROAD Total (MT/mile) Lifecycle construction carbon emissions by pavement type 1,254 MT CO2 / Mile Road 2,692 Asphalt Traditional Traditional Concrete 992 53% MEPDG Concrete 69% MEPDG 1,063 1,758 340 340 340 340 82 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 340 340 1,597 82 35 40 45 50 Over the life of the road, Asphalt produces significantly more CO2 emissions than Concrete Source: FHWA TA T5080.3 Price Adjustment Contract Provisions (FHWA 1980) Concrete rehabilitation activity assumed to use same fuel as original asphalt pavement placement (highest placement value) Note: 12” JPCP over 6” Granular Base vs. 9.5” Asphalt over 10”Aggregate base & 14” Aggregate sub base, Asphalt overlay on concrete road at year 50 - 13 - PER-MILE CO2 SAVINGS FROM CONCRETE GREATLY REDUCES ANNUAL EMISSIONS OVER A ROAD’S LIFE Annual Emissions Comparison Annual Savings per Mile 63.6 MT CO2/mi 23.5 3.8 11.1 1.6 8.1 38.5 3.8 MMT CO2 0.9 58.2 16.0 11.1 8.0 0.7 34.7 9.5 23.9 6.7 -5.2 Initial Construction Rehabilitation Savings Savings from congestion Total Construction Emissions Transporation Total Savings Fuel Savings Construction Total Savings 2.0M Vehicles 2 Coal Power Savings Plants Traditional Paving Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal High Administration, Fuel Consumption by Transportation Mode, Edwards, M. Highway User’s perspective on innovative contracting/quality in highway construction MEPDG Savings with Asphalt inherent energy - 14 - CONCRETE PAVEMENTS DELIVER SUBSTANTIAL CO2 SAVINGS Initial construction disadvantage is quickly offset Concrete Paving Annual CO2 Savings vs. Asphalt Traditional Concrete MEPDG Concrete 3500 MT CO2/mile 3,100 3000 2,909 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 0 10 20 30 40 Year 50 0 10 20 30 40 Year 50 -500 Source: U.S. Department of Energy – Annual Energy Report - 15 - AGENDA Concrete Pavements Concrete Wall Systems Next Steps - 16 - CONCRETE WALL SYSTEMS IMPROVE A BUILDING’S SHELL PERFORMANCE Source of Energy Loss (1) % Air Infiltration 35% 31% 22% 19% ICF Energy Profile CMU Energy Profile Tilt-up Energy Profile 65% (2) 22% (2) 50% (2) Walls 14% Floors & Below Grd. 14% Ceiling/Roof Ceiling 13% 13% Concrete Wall Systems: • Reduce Air Infiltration • Temper thermal Benefit • Continuous Insulation Doors & Doors & Windows Windows 20% 20% 2x4 Wood Energy Profile Air Infiltration Savings Thermal Mass Savings Insulation Savings An improved building envelop drastically reduces a home’s CO2 emissions (1) Energy Efficient Builders Association – Guide to Construction; National Insulation Contractors Association (2) Portland Cement Association – Technical Brief on Benefits of Concrete Wall Systems - 17 - ENERGY EFFICIENCY ADVANTAGE COULD TRANSLATE INTO SIGNIFICANT CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTION Potential Annual CO2 Emissions Reduction % CO2 Emissions 2.5 % Reduction 1.8% 0.7% 21 Residential MMT CO2 18 18 Commercial 17 13 Transportation 13 14 Industry 14 18 Land Use Changes 18 13 Agricultural 13 3 Others Current Emissions Annual Emissions Comparison 134 123 120 106 78 3 Residential Reduction Commercial Reduction Reduced Emissions Steel Industry ICF Impact 30 Coal Power Plants Cement Industry Wood Industry Performance benefits of Concrete Wall Systems could potentially reduce U.S. emissions by 2.5%, eliminating 123 MMT of CO2 annually EPA Sector Performance Report – 2008 Assumes PCA-stated energy performance results for applications benefiting from the use of high-performance exterior envelopes - 18 - THE DRASTIC REDUCTION IN CO2 EMISSIONS MORE THAN OFFSETS INITIAL EMBODIED ENERGY ICF Annual CO2 Savings vs. Wood CMU Annual CO2 Savings vs. Wood 120 MT CO2 102 100 80 4” ICF vs 2x4 Wood 60 62 58 CMU vs 2x4 Wood 40 4” ICF vs 2x6 Wood 40 20 CMU vs 2x6 Wood 4” ICF vs 2x6 Wood 0 0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30 -20 Year Source: U.S. Department of Energy – Annual Energy Report Year - 19 - AGENDA Concrete Pavements Concrete Wall Systems Next Steps - 20 - WE BELIEVE THE INDUSTRY HAS THE RIGHT ARGUMENTS BUT THIRD PARTY CREDIBLE VALIDATION IS NEEDED Objective is to corroborate industry is reaching the correct conclusions and provide unbiased confirmation to support communication efforts Segment Mainline Paving Studies • Initial construction & rehabilitation embodied energy and CO2 emissions comparison - Includes materials, freight, construction and traffic emissions • Fuel efficiency - Cars fuel consumption difference - Semi-truck mpg efficiency (similar to Athena report) • Embodied energy comparison (ICF/CMU vs. Wood) Wall Systems Methodology • Quantifying concrete wall energy efficiency vs. non-concrete alternatives. Potential sources: - Reduced Air Infiltration - Benefits of Thermal Mass - Benefits of Continuous Insulation • Process for Economic and Environmental lifecycle assessment Timeframe Short Comments • • Mostly data gathering and calculations Relatively short period of time Medium • • High impact potential Lengthy study due to extensive field research Medium • Low impact on decision making Short • Potentially the greatest source for environmental benefits of concrete Short • • Relatively quick academic exercise Key component for new legislation - 21 -