by Prof. Jake Chapman
Tales of Energy Systems
1.


Outline of my career
The key turning points
Modes of Thinking
2.


Hard and soft systems approaches
Difficulties for engineers and scientists
Multiple Cause Diagrams
3.


How to create them with examples
Your own example
Personal Systems
4.


Adult Development
Immunity to Change
 Trained as a physicist at Cambridge
 Research student and Fellow in electron microscopy
 Taught science, technology at Open University
 Energy Research Group 1973-78
 Seconded to MKDC 1976-77
 Professor of Energy Systems 1978 - 2001
 Started a business in energy efficiency 1983
 Developed energy assessment software (BREDEM)
 Created first energy rating for dwellings
 Developed training and assessment process
 Moved to Systems Department at OU 1980
 Centre of soft systems approaches
 Principles used in expanding business
 Cabinet Office 2001-2 on resource productivity
and energy review

Responsible for modelling energy demand and
development of renewable technology futures
 System Failure pamphlet for Demos
 Projects with NRU, Manchester, MPS
 Taught systems to senior public sector leaders through
National School of Government
 Meditation teacher since 1983
 Use examples from my career that illustrate how
my way of thinking had to change
 Distinguish between different types of problem
and different types of systemic approaches
 Explain some of the difficulties in becoming a
competent systems thinker
 Enable you to construct and use multiple cause
diagrams
 Introduce a systemic tool for self development
“Without changing our patterns of
thought, we will not be able to solve
the problems we created with our
current patterns of thought” (Einstein)
 There were certain points in my career when I
had to make a significant shift in how I
thought about energy issues
 I want to describe these in sufficient detail
that you can appreciate the shift that was
evoked
 Book on nuclear power by Weinberg claimed
that all our problems would be solved by
producing nuclear power equivalent to the
solar input to the earth
 Proposed ‘heat limit’ of 1% solar
 Usurped by greenhouse effect and carbon
limit
 Developed ‘energy analysis’ and worked out
‘embodied energy’ of all goods and services
Energy Cost (kWh/tonne Cu)
80000
60000
40000
20000
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
Ore Grade (%Cu)
0.50%
0
0.00%
 Particular interest in reserves and resources
of uranium
 I assumed that resources were a ‘physical
fact’ – rather like the weight of the earth
 Limits to Growth system modelling
 But reserves and resources depend on price!
 Recent falls in gas prices in USA have resulted
in billions of dollars being wiped off declared
shale gas assets in the US
 1970s arguments about nuclear v range of
fossil fuels
 Used energy analysis to compare “energy
costs of energy”
 I was able to argue that technically and
economically nuclear power was not the best
option
 CEGB Board member came up to me and
quietly told me it was not about money, but
about combating the NUM
 Took place in late 70s early 80s when gas and
electricity industries were in public ownership
 Competition for domestic heating market
 Both organisations had their own computer
models that demonstrated the superiority of
their product
 How to persuade them both the adopt a
different model?
 The principle of equal pain!
 Simple degree day model of heating
requirements supplemented by models of
water heating, cooking and electricity use
 All algorithms had to be supported by field
trial data
 Not academically acceptable to thermal
modelling community
 Issues of accuracy and reliability
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
10
100
Number of Data Items
data errors
model error
Total error
1000
 Ability to predict total fuel bills reliably
suggested a sales tool for house builders
 NES would guarantee total gas bill would not
exceed a prescribed value – if it did NES paid
the difference to the householder
 Only available for highly insulated homes
with very efficient heating systems
 Very little take up by builders. Why?
 Any guarantee shows up defects! (Nicci’s loft
insulation)
 Start with purely technical analysis

Heat limit and energy costs
 Resource issues forced inclusion economics
 Technology and economics does not
determine policy

Politics has a key role
 Reliability and accuracy are not just technical
issues – human beings determine outcomes!
 Energy systems has to include all this!
Any questions on
this part?
Tales of Energy Systems
1.


Outline of my career
The key turning points
Modes of Thinking
2.


Hard and soft systems approaches
Difficulties for engineers and scientists
Multiple Cause Diagrams
3.


How to create them with examples
Your own example
Personal Systems
4.


Adult Development
Immunity to Change
 Many authors have distinguished categories
of problems
Tame v wicked
 Technical v Adaptive
 Difficulty v Mess

 In the first category a solution is possible and
there is agreement on when such a solution
has been reached
 No agreements in the second category
 Tame, Technical,
 Wicked, Adaptive,
Difficulty
 Agreement on objectives
Mess
 No agreement on
 Consensus on causation
 Know when complete

 Complicated but

predictable
 Landing Rover on Mars
 Domain of Hard systems



objectives
Causation contested
No end point
Complex and unpredictable
Addressing youth nuisance
Domain of Soft systems
 Hard systems originated from cybernetics and
engineered systems – need agreement on
goals and nature of the problem
 Soft systems used when no agreement on
goals nor a shared perspective – which are
characteristics of messy or wicked problems
 Different perspectives on what the problem is
 ‘Enforcers’, ‘Distractors’, ‘Parenters’,
‘Deprivation’ and ‘Cultural Breakdown’
 Fragmented approach with each group
seeing the others as part of the problem
 Most energy directed at winning the
argument, not at addressing the issue!
 Note that they all select evidence of
causation to support their view
lack of positive
male role models
cultural
degradation
lack of
respect
deprived
estates
single
parents
poor local
schools
lack of local
youth facilities
inadequate
parenting
lack of
discipline
youngsters frustrated
And bored
Anti-social
Behaviour
 Each perspective is not wrong – just partial
 A more complete understanding of the
system can be achieved by integrating the
different perspectives
holism
reductionism
single
multiple
perspective
perspectives
holism
Ecology and
hard systems
Soft systems
thinking
Science and
engineering
reductionism
single
multiple
perspective
perspectives
 Shift from reductionism to holism is relatively
straightforward
 Shift to multiple perspectives is difficult
 Rare to have competing scientific theories

Plate tectonics, asteroid collisions
 Einstein and quantum mechanics

Plank’s view
 Structure of Scientific Revolutions by Thomas
Kuhn. (50th anniversary edition just out)
Any questions on
this part?
Tales of Energy Systems
1.


Outline of my career
The key turning points
Modes of Thinking
2.


Hard and soft systems approaches
Difficulties for engineers and scientists
Multiple Cause Diagrams
3.


How to create them with examples
Your own example
Personal Systems
4.


Immunity to Change
Systems Practice
 Systems practice involves the use of a
number of different diagram types

Key use is in representing system holistically
 System Map for defining the system
boundary and identifying components
 Multiple Cause Diagrams for identifying
causal relationships
Precursor to sign graphs used in system modelling
 Useful for identifying different perspectives

targets set to
improve
performance
targets incorporated
into performance
management
causes or
leads to
increased pressure
on politicians to
improve situation
professionals
feel distrusted
delivery staff
focus on target
rather than client
causes or
leads to
increased
dissatisfaction
with service
causes or
leads to
service to clients
deteriorates
activity on
target distorts
system
targets set to
improve
performance
causes or
leads to
professionals
feel distrusted
increased pressure
on politicians to
improve situation feedback
causes or
leads to
increased
dissatisfaction
with service
targets incorporated
into performance
management
delivery staff
focus on target
rather than client
loop
causes or
leads to
service to clients
deteriorates
activity on
target distorts
system
lack of positive
male role models
cultural
degradation
lack of
respect
deprived
estates
single
parents
poor local
schools
lack of local
youth facilities
inadequate
parenting
lack of
discipline
youngsters frustrated
and bored
Anti-social
Behaviour
Committee
held in low
regard
papers
unread
lack of
challenge
lack of
understanding
of programme
Committee
held in low
regard
attendance
low priority
culture of
silo
working
lack of
corporate
thinking
papers
unread
lack of
challenge
lack of
understanding
of programme
no shared
vision
Committee
held in low
regard
attendance
low priority
culture of
silo
working
lack of
corporate
thinking
papers
unread
lack of
challenge
lack of
understanding
of programme
no shared
vision
Committee
held in low
regard
attendance
low priority
culture of
silo
working
lack of
corporate
thinking
papers
unread
lack of
challenge
lack of
understanding
of programme
no shared
vision
Committee
held in low
regard
attendance
low priority
most agenda items
irrelevant to
individuals
Committee
operating at too
detailed a level
senior
people
absent
come
unprepared
culture of
silo
working
lack of
corporate
thinking
lack of
challenge
lack of
understanding
of programme
no shared
vision
send a
deputy
papers
unread
Committee
held in low
regard
attendance
low priority
most agenda items
irrelevant to
individuals
Committee
operating at too
detailed a level
senior
people
absent
send a
deputy
come
unprepared
culture of
silo
working
lack of
corporate
thinking
lack of
challenge
lack of
understanding
of programme
papers
unread
Committee
held in low
regard
attendance
low priority
most agenda items
irrelevant to
individuals
Committee
operating at too
detailed a level
no shared
vision
lack of corporate
or strategic
debate
 Is there one item that is pivotal to the
diagram?
 What are the items that only have arrows
leaving them (the starting items)?
 Are there any feedback loops, and if so how
could they be influenced?
 Is there a part of the diagram that deserves
expansion?
Pivotal issues
senior
people
absent
send a
deputy
come
unprepared
culture of
silo
working
lack of
corporate
thinking
lack of
challenge
lack of
understanding
of programme
papers
unread
Committee
held in low
regard
attendance
low priority
most agenda items
irrelevant to
individuals
Committee
operating at too
detailed a level
no shared
vision
lack of corporate
or strategic
debate
Feedback loop
senior
people
absent
send a
deputy
come
unprepared
culture of
silo
working
lack of
corporate
thinking
lack of
challenge
lack of
understanding
of programme
papers
unread
Committee
held in low
regard
attendance
low priority
most agenda items
irrelevant to
individuals
Committee
operating at too
detailed a level
no shared
vision
lack of corporate
or strategic
debate
Starting items
senior
people
absent
send a
deputy
come
unprepared
culture of
silo
working
lack of
corporate
thinking
lack of
challenge
lack of
understanding
of programme
papers
unread
Committee
held in low
regard
attendance
low priority
most agenda items
irrelevant to
individuals
Committee
operating at too
detailed a level
no shared
vision
lack of corporate
or strategic
debate
 The Exercise is about clarifying your own
thinking about an issue
 process of trying it out, realising something
missing and starting again
 no good at all at finding (or justifying)
solutions
 biggest trap – forcing the diagram to prove a
solution
 Each item in the diagram is a factor – usually
something that varies
 Each arrow means ‘causes’ or ‘leads to’
 Aim to have between 10 and 25 items in the
diagram
 Look out for feedback loops – but they do not
have to be present
 Key issue is getting the ‘level’ of the starting
item right
 Three or four causes and a few effects
 You may start with the wrong issue – this is
clarification!
 Avoid combining ideas into a single item
Any questions?
Demonstration of how
to construct a Multiple
Cause Diagram
 Identify an issue or problem that you want to
understand better
 Identify the event or variable at the centre of this
issue
 Extend diagram backwards by asking “what
causes this?” and forwards by asking “what does
this lead to?”
 Check for connections between items on the
diagram
 If necessary iterate by starting again
 Identify any feedback loops
 Reflect on your understanding of the issue
Any questions
or comments on
the exercise?
Tales of Energy Systems
1.


Outline of my career
The key turning points
Modes of Thinking
2.


Hard and soft systems approaches
Difficulties for engineers and scientists
Multiple Cause Diagrams
3.


How to create them with examples
Your own example
Personal Systems
4.


Adult Development
Immunity to Change
 Children go through stages of thinking
 Does not cease at 18, 21 or any age; adults
can continue to develop if they so choose
 What changes in adult development is the
complexity of thinking
 A later stage of development includes the
earlier stages and expands on it
 Shifts involve a move from subject to object

Young children: my expertise as a physicist
mental
complexity
Age
 Often initiated by life changes, including
personal crises
 Can also be fostered by sincere challenge of
oneself
 Next exercise illustrates this
 It is a personal exercise (non-disclosure)
 Need to write things down
 Identify a commitment that, in your view,
would lead to an improvement in your
effectiveness
 Must be something important to you
personally (not an ‘ought’)
 And something not yet fully realised
 Complete the statement
I am committed to ....
 Examples: I am committed to ..
 ... being more receptive to new ideas
 ... becoming better at persisting
 ... being honest with myself and the people I
work with
 ... learning to be more effective in teaching
others how to be more effective
 What am I doing, or not doing, that is preventing
my commitment from being fully realised
 Not doubting your sincerity
 But given constraints and conflicts there are
probably some things you are not doing
 And maybe others you should stop doing
 So you are identifying your role, albeit a small
one, in not realising your commitment
 What am I doing, or not doing, that is
preventing my commitment from being fully
realised
 Examples:
 I am not asking anyone for help
 I give up in the face of minor difficulties
 I don’t try out new things or take risks
 I am not clear by what I mean by effectiveness
 Aim for at least three statements
 This is where the process can get tricky – and
potentially embarrassing
 Look at the statements you wrote in step 2 and
imagine doing the opposite
 Notice the most worrisome or scary feelings
 Typical things that arise are fears – of looking
stupid, of being out of control, of being helpless
 What is the cringe factor for you? There may be
one associated with each step 2 statement
 Now use whatever you discovered in step 3 to
identify a new commitment you have
 For example someone who fears looking stupid
would have a commitment to avoid looking stupid
 You may have several different commitments
operating – or just one that captures all the
aspects.
 These are your hidden competing commitments
 Find the “big assumption” behind your
competing commitment
 If your competing commitment has a negative,
remove it to make a sentence stem like I assume
that if I were out of control...
 If your competing commitment did not have a
negative then insert one to make a sentence
stem like I assume that if I did not avoid conflict
then...
 If you look at what you have written down in
reverse order it all makes sense.
 Your competing commitments protect you from
the negative consequences of the ‘big
assumption’
 And what you are doing to not fulfil your
declared commitment does serve your hidden
competing commitments
 The authors call this your “immune system” – it
is your immunity against change
 Changing your immunity system takes time –
typically months
 Start by observing where and how it operates
in your life
 Build up a more complete picture of it: when
did it start?
 Devise safe ways to test your ‘big
assumption’
 Perceiving yourself as a complex system
 Adaptation in complex systems preserves
some core values or structure
 Your “immune system” shows you some part
of what you adapt to preserve
 Challenging yourself to overcome this type of
immunity opens the door to thinking
differently
Any questions?
Thank you for your attention