ENERGY
PHASE II: UNIT ENERGY SAVINGS
(UES) MEASURE COMPLIANCE: RTF
MEETING
Navigant Presentation
Presented by Mohit Singh- Chhabra, Ryan Firestone and Kevin
Cooney
August 21, 2012
Navigant Reference: 150283
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
D I S P U T E S & I N V E S T I G AT I O N S • E C O N O M I C S • F I N A N C I A L A D V I S O RY • M A N A G E M E N T C O N S U LT I N G
Content of Report
This presentation was prepared by Navigant Consulting, Inc. exclusively for the benefit and internal use
of Regional Technical Forum and/or its affiliates or subsidiaries. No part of it may be circulated, quoted,
or reproduced for distribution outside these organization(s) without prior written approval from
Navigant Consulting, Inc. The work presented in this report represents our best efforts and judgments
based on the information available at the time this report was prepared. Navigant Consulting, Inc. is not
responsible for the reader’s use of, or reliance upon, the report, nor any decisions based on the report.
NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. MAKES NO REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED
OR IMPLIED.
Readers of the report are advised that they assume all liabilities incurred by them, or third parties, as a
result of their reliance on the report, or the data, information, findings and opinions contained in the
report.
June 21, 2012
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. Navigant Consulting is not a certified public accounting firm and does not provide audit, attest, or public
accounting services. See www.navigantconsulting.com/licensing for a complete listing of private investigator licenses. Investment banking, private placement,
merger, acquisition and divestiture services offered through Navigant Capital Advisors, LLC., Member FINRA/SIPC.
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
1
ENERGY
Contents
Table of Contents
1
Introductions
2
Overview of Measures to Brought into
Compliance
3
Domestic Hot Water Heaters
4
Residential Freezers
5
Residential Clothes Washers
5
Conclusions & Next Steps
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
2
ENERGY
Contents
Table of Contents
1
Introductions
2
Overview of Measures to Brought into
Compliance
3
Domestic Hot Water Heaters
4
Residential Freezers
5
Residential Clothes Washers
5
Conclusions & Next Steps
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
3
ENERGY
Introductions
The Navigant Team Working on Updating Measure Workbooks:
Kevin Cooney
Managing Director In-Charge
Ryan Firestone
Mohit Singh-Chhabra
Project Advisor
Project Manager
A
Angie Lee
Christian Douglass
Eric Shum
Engineer
Engineer
Engineer
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
4
ENERGY
Contents
Table of Contents
1
Introductions
2
Overview of Measures to Brought into
Compliance
3
Domestic Hot Water Heaters
4
Residential Freezers
5
Residential Clothes Washers
5
Conclusions & Next Steps
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
5
ENERGY
Overview
Updates Required to Bring Measures Into Compliance
•
The Recommendation memoranda outlined updates required to bring the ten UES
measures into compliance. These actions, are presented below for the first three
measures completed:
Priority
Level
Measure
Category
Domestic Hot Water Heater
DHW
1
Freezers
Appliance
1
Clothes Washers
Appliance
1
Commercial Refrigerators & Freezers
Appliance
2
Manufactured Housing Duct Sealing
Weatherization
2
Refrigerator Recycling
Appliance
2
Specialty CFL and LED Down-lights
Lighting
2
Green Motor Rewind
Motor
3
Dishwashers
Appliance
3
Single Family Heat Pump Upgrades
Space Heat
3
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
6
ENERGY
Contents
Table of Contents
1
Introductions
2
Overview of Measures to Brought into
Compliance
3
Domestic Hot Water Heaters
4
Residential Freezers
5
Residential Clothes Washers
5
Conclusions & Next Steps
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
7
ENERGY
Domestic Hot Water Heaters
Actions Taken to Bring Measure Into Compliance
Task
Update Workbook Structure and Formulae by removing
references to commercial water heaters, change inactive and
unused links.
Documentation updates to include sourcing the AHRI (Air
Conditioning, Heating, and refrigeration Institute) dataset
used and document the assumed water heater input power.
Task Source
Reccomendation
Memo
Reccomendation
Memo
Notes
Completed as per reccomendation
Completed as per reccomendation
The current datasets for efficient and baseline EF (Energy
Reccomendation Downloaded and updated with new AHRI data.
Factor) input parameters need to be reviewed and updated
Memo
Another sunset period should revolve around new federal
standards for electric storage water heaters that will
become effective April 16, 2015
Reccomendation
Memo
This changed measure incremental cost and UES
Completed as per reccomendation
Update EUL Summary Table
NWPCC
Completed as per guidelines
Update Cost Summary Table
NWPCC
Completed as per guidelines
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
8
ENERGY
Domestic Hot Water Heaters
Previous Measure Savings
Incremental
ProCost Full Measure Name
Capital Cost
($/unit)
Residential-type Water Heater (>= 25
gallons, <35 gallons)
Residential-type Water Heater (>= 35
gallons, <45 gallons)
Residential-type Water Heater (>= 45
gallons, <55 gallons)
Residential-type Water Heater (>= 45
gallons, <55 gallons_EF0.94+)
Residential-type Water Heater (>= 55
gallons, <75 gallons)
Residential-type Water Heater (>= 75
gallons, <100 gallons)
Residential-type Water Heater (>= 100
gallons, <120 gallons)
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
Measure Life
(years)
Annual
Total Societal
Savings @ Site Benefit / Cost Ratio
(kwh/yr)
(TRC B/C Ratio)
29
15
39
1.6
51
15
99
2.3
67
15
131
2.3
56
15
111
2
85
15
175
2.5
79
15
165
2.5
59
15
135
2.8
9
ENERGY
Domestic Hot Water Heaters
Updated Measure Savings
Incremental
ProCost Full Measure Name
Capital Cost
($/unit)
Residential-type Water Heater (>= 25
gallons, <35 gallons)
Residential-type Water Heater (>= 35
gallons, <45 gallons)
Residential-type Water Heater (>= 45
gallons, <55 gallons)
Residential-type Water Heater (>= 45
gallons, <55 gallons_EF0.94+)
Residential-type Water Heater (>= 55
gallons, <75 gallons)
Residential-type Water Heater (>= 75
gallons, <100 gallons)
Residential-type Water Heater (>= 100
gallons, <120 gallons)
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
Measure Life
(years)
Annual
Total Societal
Savings @ Site Benefit / Cost Ratio
(kwh/yr)
(TRC B/C Ratio)
29
15
40
2.3
54
15
110
2.3
73
15
149
2.3
69
15
142
2
92
15
190
2.3
60
15
129
2.4
49
15
120
2.7
10
ENERGY
Contents
Table of Contents
1
Introductions
2
Overview of Measures to Brought into
Compliance
3
Domestic Hot Water Heaters
4
Residential Freezers
5
Residential Clothes Washers
5
Conclusions & Next Steps
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
11
ENERGY
Residential Freezers
Actions Taken to Bring Measure Into Compliance
Task
Task Source
Notes
Update documentation to provide more clarity on sources
Reccomendation No change in calculations methods but some
and sourcing any hard codded numbers
Memo
Deleted tabs that do not factor into the analysis e.g. list of
Reccomendation
current qualified Energy Star Freezers
Memo
Update input parameters with CEC (California Energy
Reccomendation Updated CEC data to include newest measures
Commission) database values with the latest available data Memo
Update adjusted volume and chest freezer distribution
Finalize Market Penetration of ES Freezers
Reccomendation
Memo
sources were updated and better documented
added to database since July
Updated adjusted volume and chest freezer
distribution with data brom RBSA 2012 report
data
Reccomendation
The EPA regional number from 2009 is used at present.
Memo
This needs to be discussed at the RTF
Used EUL from DOE's current technical support
Update EUL
NWPCC
document, value changes to 21.7 years for
standard residential freezer, benchamarked
against DEER
Update EUL Summary Table
NWPCC
Deflate Cost to 2006 Dollars
NWPCC
Update Cost Summary Table
NWPCC
Completed as per guidelines
Documented methodology and estimates in the
cost summary tab
Completed as per guidelines
• Enhanced documentation for assumptions and sources.
• Updated cost and energy consumption values based on latest available information.
• Streamlined workbook to only present data necessary for analysis.
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
12
ENERGY
Residential Freezers
Point for Discussion: Market Penetration of Residential Freezers
Source
Suggested Value
Vintage
Notes
DnR International*
10%
2010
This was the professional opinion of a DnR
International employee. This was used for
the last update
EPA Regional Data**
32%
2010
Specific to the Northwest Region
2012
This source is California specific and does
not represent Market penetration, but it
represents equipment available for
purchase
CEC Database
55%
* Market penetration rate used in previous version of residential freezer analysis
**Current market penetration rate used in analysis.
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
13
ENERGY
Residential Freezers
Comparison between previous and updated values
Previous Values
Total Societal Benefit
Annual Savings @ Site
/ Cost Ratio (TRC B/C
(kwh/yr)
Ratio)
42
15.3
Incremental Capital Cost
($/unit)
Measure Life
(years)
4
20
3
20
36
16.7
Energy Star Freezer - Tier 2 (15% to 20% more efficient than
federal standard)
7
20
55
12.3
Energy Star Freezer - Tier 3 (20% to 25% more efficient than
federal standard)
13
20
75
8.8
Energy Star Freezer - Tier 4 (25% to 30% more efficient than
federal standard)
22
20
94
6.4
Energy Star Freezer - Tier 5 (30% to 35% more efficient than
federal standard)
40
20
114
4.3
ProCost Full Measure Name
Energy Star Freezer (no tiers)
Energy Star Freezer - Tier 1 (10% to 15% more efficient than
federal standard)
Updated Values
ProCost Full Measure Name
Energy Star Freezer (no tiers)
Energy Star Freezer - Tier 1 (10% to 15% more efficient than
federal standard)
Energy Star Freezer - Tier 2 (15% to 20% more efficient than
federal standard)
Energy Star Freezer - Tier 3 (20% to 25% more efficient than
federal standard)
Energy Star Freezer - Tier 4 (25% to 30% more efficient than
federal standard)
Energy Star Freezer - Tier 5 (30% to 35% more efficient than
federal standard)
Incremental Capital
Cost ($/unit)
Measure Life (years)
Annual Savings @
Site (kwh/yr)
Total Societal Benefit
/ Cost Ratio (TRC B/C
Ratio)
4
22
32
13.7
2
22
23
15.6
6
22
44
11.4
12
22
64
8.3
23
22
85
5.9
73
22
125
2.7
Values are aggregated by Energy Star Tier, freezer configurations include any defrost, upright automatic and manual defrost, and upright freezer.
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
14
ENERGY
Residential Freezers
Increased residential freezer baseline efficiency reduces incremental
cost and energy savings for Tier 1 to Tier 4 Energy Star freezers.
• Residential freezers has become more efficient since the last freezer review, bringing
the baseline freezer efficiency to be 5% more efficient than federal standard (as opposed
to 2% more efficient than federal standard from last review).
•Both updated incremental cost values and energy savings values decrease for Energy
Star Tier 1 to Tier 4 freezers due to increase baseline efficiency.
•The updated incremental cost and energy savings of Tier 5 freezers increased. Tier 5
freezers show a different trend than other Energy Star Tiers as the cost curve used in this
analysis has an exponential distribution. As the average efficiency of Tier 5 freezers
increases, the cost of the freezers increases exponentially.
•Updated values decrease the TRC ratio for all Tiers, all updated TRC values range from
2.7 to 15.6.
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
15
ENERGY
Contents
Table of Contents
1
Introductions
2
Overview of Measures to Brought into
Compliance
3
Domestic Hot Water Heaters
4
Residential Freezers
5
Residential Clothes Washers
5
Conclusions & Next Steps
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
16
ENERGY
Residential Clothes Washers
Actions Taken to Bring Measure Into Compliance
Task
Task Source
Work-book Calculation Errors need to be corrected; these
Reccomendation
include errors in wastewater energy savings calculations.
Memo
Documentation Updates
Reccomendation
Memo
Notes
-
Investigate the possibility of including a climate zone
Reccomendation This is not required - Navigant explored the
identifier to the measure definition
Memo
Input parameters need to be updated by incorporating the
Reccomendation
most recent CEC data.
Memo
Clotheswasher load per year need to be investigated
Reccomendation
Memo
Update the EUL of the measure
NWPCC
Update EUL Summary Table
NWPCC
Update cost of incented clothes washers from a utility
program
Navigant's proposed Cost Analysis
Update Cost Summary Table
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
NWPCC
Navigant/
NWPCC
NWPCC
possibility
Completed
RBSA draft provided this value.
Sourced the EUL (14 years) from DOE Clothes
Washer Technical Support Document
Completed as per guidelines
EnergyTrust of Oregon provided data for 2003 2012.
For Discussion
Completed as per guidelines
17
ENERGY
Residential Clothes Washers
Previous Measure Savings
Measure Name
Incremental Capital
Cost ($/unit)
Measure Life
(years)
Avg. Annual
Savings @ Site
(kwh/yr)*
Avg. Annual
Savings @ Site
(Therm/yr)**
Avg. Total Societal
Benefit / Cost Ratio
(TRC B/C Ratio)**
Energy Star Clothes Washer (MEF
$
2.00 or higher)
80.43
14
95
2.7
5.7
CEE Tier 2 / WA State Tier 1
Clothes Washer (MEF 2.00 to 2.19 )
$
36.72
14
56
1.5
8.1
WA State Tier 2 Clothes Washer
(MEF 2.20 to 2.45)
$
107.09
14
88
2.5
4.2
WA State Tier 3 Clothes Washer
(MEF 2.46 or higher)
$
245.67
14
129
3.7
2.4
Energy Star Top 10% Clothes
Washer (MEF 2.70 or higher)
$
209.16
14
141
4.1
3.0
* Aggregated for fuel and dryer types. Includes wastewater energy
** Aggregated for fuel and dryer types.
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
18
ENERGY
Residential Clothes Washers
Updated Measure Savings
Measure Name
Incremental Capital
Cost ($/unit)
Measure Life
(years)
Avg. Annual
Savings @ Site
(kwh/yr)*
Avg. Annual
Savings @ Site
(Therm/yr)**
Avg. Total Societal
Benefit / Cost Ratio
(TRC B/C Ratio)**
Energy Star Clothes Washer (MEF
$
2.00 or higher)
95.34
14
65
1.8
3.1
CEE Tier 1 Clothes Washer (MEF
2.00 to 2.19)
$
76.38
14
15
0.4
1.1
CEE Tier 2 Clothes Washer (MEF
2.20 to 2.39)
$
120.34
14
42
1.2
1.8
CEE Tier 3 Clothes Washer (MEF
2.40 or higher)
$
91.06
14
86
2.4
4.0
WA State Tier 1 Clothes Washer
(MEF 2.2 to 2.45)
$
134.92
14
45
1.3
1.7
WA State Tier 2 Clothes Washer
(MEF 2.46 or higher)
$
118.53
14
92
2.6
3.2
Energy Star Top 10% Clothes
Washer (MEF 3.13 or higher)
$
328.25
14
123
3.4
1.4
* Aggregated for fuel and dryer types. Includes wastewater energy
** Aggregated for fuel and dryer types.
NOTE: Updated CEE and WA State efficiency criteria resulted in two additional measure categories.
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
19
ENERGY
Residential Clothes Washers
Point for Discussion: Incremental Cost Source(s)
•
In the previous res clothes washer RTF workbook, OR tax credit data (vintage: 2007) was
used to inform the base and efficient machine costs.
•
In the current workbook, Navigant considered two methods of updating machine costs:
– Method 1: Use ETO clothes washer incentive cost data to inform the efficient case
machine costs and manufacturer retail costs (from manufacturer websites) to inform the
costs of non-efficient machines.
– Method 2: Use a single cost source, a Home Depot located in the Northwest (Portland,
OR), to inform both the efficient case and non-efficient case machine costs.
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
20
ENERGY
Residential Clothes Washers
Point for Discussion: Incremental Cost Source(s) (continued)
•
The following tables show the machine costs and incremental costs that result from the
two cost methods:
Retail Cost, Normalized to CEC Baseline Volume ($2006)
Cost Method
Method 1
Method 2
Any Energy
WA State
Star, January CEE Tier 1 CEE Tier 2 CEE Tier 3
Tier 1
2011
Baseline
WA State
Tier 2
Energy Star
Top 10%
$
649
$
744 $
725
$
769
$
740
$
784
$
768
$
977
$
661
$
795 $
527
$
824
$
834
$
874
$
838
$
1,036
Incremental Cost, Normalized to CEC Baseline Volume ($2006)
Cost Method
Any Energy
WA State
Star, January CEE Tier 1 CEE Tier 2 CEE Tier 3
Tier 1
2011
Baseline
Method 1
$
-
$
95 $
Method 2
$
-
$
134 $
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
76
WA State
Tier 2
Energy Star
Top 10%
$
120
$
91
$
135
$
119
$
328
(134) $
163
$
173
$
213
$
177
$
375
21
ENERGY
Residential Clothes Washers
Point for Discussion: Effect of Climate Zone on Measure TRC B/C
•
The RTF res clothes washer workbook has assumed a 65°F ∆T for the entire Northwest
region.
•
Navigant was asked to look at various climate zones in the Northwest to see the effect of
different mains water temperatures on measure savings.
•
The DOE’s Building America Research Benchmark spreadsheet tool was used to calculate
mains water temps, and the associated delta T’s, for three heating zones in the NW.
Heating Zone
Average Mains Temp
(°F)
Delta T (°F)
1
57.8
62.2
2
53.5
66.5
3
50.0
70.0
Zone 1 includes: Yakima, WA; Tacoma, WA; Portland, OR; Seattle, WA
Zone 2 includes: Spokane, WA; Klamath Falls, OR; Livingston, MT; Billings,
MT
Zone 3 includes: Idaho Falls, ID; Butte, MT; Missoula, MT; Great Falls, MT
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
22
ENERGY
Residential Clothes Washers
Point for Discussion: Effect of Climate Zone (continued)
•
The following table shows the maximum and average percent changes in the TRC B/C
ratios of clothes washer measures, when the heating zone-specific delta T’s are compared
to the current assumption of 65°F:
Change in TRC
B/C Ratio
Heating Zone 1
(62.2°F ∆T)
Heating Zone 2
(66.5°F ∆T)
Heating Zone 3
(70°F ∆T)
Maximum
Change
0.57%
0.37%
1.21%
Average
Change
-0.04%
0.02%
0.06%
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
23
ENERGY
Residential Clothes Washers
Point for Discussion: Dryer Energy vs. Remaining Moisture Content
•
Previously, commercial clothes washer data was used as the basis of comparing dryer
energy to remaining moisture content:
Dryer Energy (kWh/cycle)
Dryer Energy vs Moisture
Content
1.4
1.2
1
y = 2.5247x - 0.0856
R² = 0.9996
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
Remaining Moisture Content (%)
•
Average commercial tub volume in this study: 2.8 ft^3
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
24
ENERGY
Residential Clothes Washers
Point for Discussion: Dryer Energy vs. Remaining Moisture Content
(continued)
•
DOE res data is also available, however the data correlation among machines is not as
strong.
Dryer Energy (kWh/cycle)
Dryer Energy vs Moisture
Content
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
y = 3.7254x - 0.0333
R² = 0.7637
1.00
0.50
0.00
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
Remaining Moisture Content (%)
•
Average residential tub volume in this study: 3.5 ft^3. Data points normalized by average
tub volume.
•
Should Navigant continue to use the commercial clothes washer data to establish this
correlation, or use the residential washers to correlate data instead?
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
25
ENERGY
Contents
Table of Contents
1
Introductions
2
Overview of Measures to Brought into
Compliance
3
Domestic Hot Water Heaters
4
Residential Freezers
5
Residential Clothes Washers
5
Conclusions & Next Steps
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
26
ENERGY
Next Steps
Feedback from the RTF Will be Used to Finalize Workbooks
•
Finalized workbooks to be presented in the next RTF meeting
•
Draft version of workbooks to be presented in the next RTF meeting:
– Commercial Refrigerators & Freezers
– Manufactured Housing Duct Sealing
– Refrigerator Recycling
– Specialty CFL and LED Down-lights
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
27
ENERGY
Key
CONTACTS
Kevin Cooney, Director-in-Charge
Managing Director
Boulder, CO
(303) 728-2500
Kevin.Cooney@navigant.com
Ryan Firestone
Associate Director
Walnut Creek, CA
(925) 930-2708 Ryan.Firestone@navigant.com
Mohit Singh-Chhabra
Managing Consultant
Walnut Creek, CA
(925) 930-2713 Mohit.Singh-Chhabra@navigant.com
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
28
ENERGY