HART
RESEARCH
A S SOC I A T ES
Winning the Battle for
Revenue and Investments
Nationwide Survey Among 1,009 2012 Voters
Conducted October 25-30, 2013; M.O.E. +/-3.1%
for
Overview of Findings





2
A debate framed in terms of how much to cut federal
spending means playing on Republicans’ turf. Avoid this trap
by going on offense on tax fairness: increasing revenue from
the wealthy and corporations.
Voters reject a cuts-only approach to the budget, and
strongly support revenue from wealthy/corporations.
Public says replace at least half of sequester cuts by closing
corporate tax loopholes and ending tax breaks for wealthy.
Voters want job creation in budget equation, not singular
focus on deficit. But public still desires deficit reduction and
limiting spending.
Little public support for reducing high-end or corporate tax
rates as part of tax reform.
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Democrats Enjoy Modest Advantage at Beginning
of Budget Talks
In whom do you have more confidence to have the right approach in trying to reach a
budget agreement dealing with government spending and taxes?
All voters
39%
Confidence
in Democrats
Confidence
in GOP
Democrats
76%
4%
Independents
24%
28%
Republicans
3%
73%
Democrat
81%
2%
Republican
4%
73%
Swing voters
26%
22%
33%
Generic House Vote:
Much
more
23%
More confidence
in Democrats
3
Much
more
21%
More confidence
in Republicans
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Public Wants a Mix of Revenue and Spending Cuts,
Not a Cuts-Only Budget
Which budget plan do you prefer?
Budget that increases tax revenue from the wealthy and
corporations and also cuts spending
56%
+17
Budget that cuts spending, with no tax increases
39%
4
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Public Wants a Mix of Revenue and Spending
Cuts, Not a Cuts-Only Budget
Which budget plan do you prefer?
Revenue/
Cuts
Cuts
Only
All voters
56%
39%
Democrats
Independents
Republicans
74%
57%
33%
21%
38%
61%
Republicans:
Tea Party
Non-Tea Party
Men
Women
5
23%
45%
27%
40%
73%
47%
69%
52%
Revenue/ Cuts
Cuts
Only
2014 swing voters
Moderates
Sen. Battleground States
Red State/Dem Senator
67%
69%
59%
54%
27%
27%
32%
38%
Men
Women
50%
61%
46%
32%
White non-college grads
White college grads
55%
58%
40%
38%
Northeast
South
Midwest
West
62%
49%
55%
63%
35%
45%
39%
33%
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Voters Want Budget to Raise Revenue from Wealthy
and Corporations – Especially by Closing Loopholes
In each pair, which budget plan do you prefer?
Budget that increases tax revenue from the wealthy and
corporations
58%
Budget that does not increase taxes on any American
+22
36%
Budget that closes corporate tax loopholes and limits tax
breaks for the wealthy
67%
Budget that does not increase taxes on any American
28%
6
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
+39
Americans Want Congress to Focus on Both Jobs
and the Deficit, Not Deficit Alone
Which better describes the budget priorities you would like Congress to follow?
Focus on strengthening the economy and creating jobs, while
also tackling our deficit responsibly
68%
+40
Focus on getting our budget deficit under control and bringing
down the national debt
28%
7
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Voters Want the Sequester Reduced, But Not
Cancelled
In the coming year, the automatic spending cuts will reduce domestic and military spending
by $110 billion if Congress takes no action. Which is the best way for Congress to deal with
these automatic spending cuts?
All voters
56%
Initial View of Automatic
Spending Cuts/Sequester
18%
18%
Familiar with/favorable
22%
Familiar with/unfavorable
29%
Not sure/not familiar with
49%
Allow full
Reduce
Cancel
spending cuts spending cuts spending
to take effect
somewhat
cuts
8
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Voters Favor Replacing Automatic Cuts with
Revenue
In each pair, which approach for dealing with the automatic spending cuts do you prefer?
Reduce the spending cuts by 50% and replace them with new
tax revenue from the wealthy and corporations
53%
+26
Allow the full spending cuts to take effect
27%
Cancel the spending cuts and replace them with new tax
revenue from the wealthy and corporations
50%
Allow the full spending cuts to take effect
+16
34%
9
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Which Sequester Cuts Most Worry the Public?
Which one or two of these spending cuts concern you the most?
42%
Education
34%
Military
College loans/
tuition assistance
19%
18%
Food safety
Bigger Concern about Sequester
Medical research
15%
Nutrition programs
Job training
10
11%
8%
Service
cuts
800,000
jobs
All Voters
44%
31%
Democrats
55%
30%
Independents
41%
31%
Republicans
33%
34%
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Framing the Debate: Stopping Budget Cuts vs.
Increasing Spending
In each pair, which budget plan do you prefer?
Budget that keeps federal spending at the current level
57%
A budget that cuts federal spending on programs like
education and medical research by $50 billion
+29
28%
A budget that increases federal spending on programs like
education and medical research by $50 billion
36%
-18
Budget that keeps federal spending at the current level
54%
11
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Opposition to offsetting Sequester with
Entitlement Cuts
Which approach for dealing with the automatic spending cuts do you prefer?
Avoid spending cuts this year, paid for by reducing spending
on Medicare and Social Security in future years
22%
-24
Allow the full spending cuts to take effect
46%
Which is the better way to replace the sequester spending cuts?
By eliminating tax breaks for the wealthy and big corporations
70%
By reducing spending on Social Security and Medicare in
future years
12%
12
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
+58
Strong Opposition to Entitlement Cuts
13

85% oppose asking seniors to pay more for
Medicare.

83% oppose cutting Medicaid health coverage.

67% oppose reducing Social Security COLA.

Call “entitlements” by their real name: Voters favor
cutting “spending on entitlements” by 17 points, but
oppose cuts in "spending on Social Security and
Medicare" by 65 points.
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Strong Support for Progressive Revenue Measures
Strongly approve
Close tax loopholes to
ensure corporations pay
equally on foreign profits
Buffett Rule: minimum 30%
rate on millionaires
End loophole for corporate
meals/entertainment
End loophole letting Wall St
hedge fund mgrs pay lower
rate than middle class
Close loophole to avoid
taxes by shifting income to
offshore tax havens
End special tax breaks for
oil and gas companies
Somewhat approve
79%*
59%
71%
51%
69%
54%
53%
50%
45%
68%
62%
62%
*70% oppose lowering the tax rate U.S. corporations pay on foreign profits.
14
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Use Tax Reform Revenue for Public Investment
and Deficit Reduction, not Rate Cuts
How should tax revenue from closing
corporate
loopholes
and
limiting
deductions for wealthy be used?
82%
9%
Reduce
Reduce tax rates on
deficit/make corporations/wealthy
new
investments
15
With which statement about corporate tax
reform do you agree more?
55%
Democrats: "It's time to stop corporate tax
dodging and invest in the U.S. again. If we close
tax loopholes for corporations that ship profits
and jobs offshore, we can raise billions of dollars
to invest in America--making classrooms less
crowded, improving roads and bridges, and
making us energy independent."
35%
Republicans: "We need a corporate tax system
that ensures our companies can compete
against foreign companies on a level playing
field. Our tax system needs to be changed so
that companies bring their overseas earnings
back home to create jobs and invest in American
workers.
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Democratic Message on Revenue and Services
Wins Budget Debate
With which statement on the budget and taxes do you agree more?
53%
+13
40%
Agree
much
more
Agree
much
more
35%
27%
Democrats
16
Republicans
DEMOCRATS: "It's wrong to balance the budget on the
backs of the middle class by relying only on cuts to vital
programs such as medical research and education.
Instead of cutting cancer research, we should require
millionaires to pay a tax rate as high as the middle class
pays. Instead of cutting funding for schools, let's end
tax breaks for corporations that send American jobs
offshore. If we ask the rich and big corporations to pay
their fair share of taxes, we can be fiscally responsible
and protect the middle class."
REPUBLICANS: "The best way to get our economy
growing again and create jobs is to reduce federal
spending and bring down the budget deficit. We must
not continue the irresponsible and unsustainable
spending that has left us with a $17 trillion debt that
threatens the future for our children and grandchildren.
And the last thing we need is further tax hikes that will
kill jobs and hurt our economy--we don't have a deficit
problem because we tax too little, we have it because
we spend too much."
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Democratic Message on Revenue, Jobs, and
Services Wins Budget Debate
With which statement on the budget and taxes do you agree more?
54%
+13
41%
Agree
much
more
Agree
much
more
35%
29%
Democrats
17
Republicans
DEMOCRATS: "Our highest priority is to create the
conditions for job creation, economic growth, and
prosperity built from the middle-out, not the top down.
We should replace harmful automatic spending cuts
with smart, balanced deficit reduction, while making
essential investments in education, job training, and
infrastructure to create jobs for the American people.
And we should ask the wealthy and large corporations
to pay their fair share of taxes, rather than hurt our
communities by cutting healthcare, education, and
public safety."
REPUBLICANS: "The best way to get our economy
growing again and create jobs is to reduce federal
spending and bring down the budget deficit. We must
not continue the irresponsible and unsustainable
spending that has left us with a seventeen trillion dollar
debt that threatens the future for our children and
grandchildren. And the last thing we need is further tax
hikes that will kill jobs and hurt our economy--we don't
have a deficit problem because taxes are too low, we
have it because the government spends too much."
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Strongest Democratic Messages Focus on
Tax/Spending Tradeoffs
Very Convincing Reason to Support Democrats’ Budget Priorities
55%
We should end tax breaks for companies that ship jobs and profits
offshore, and level the playing field for small businesses that create jobs
in America.
54%
We should close tax loopholes for large corporations that ship jobs
offshore, and instead use that money to invest in jobs in America by
improving our roads and bridges and rebuilding manufacturing.
50%
Instead of cutting education funding for our children, we should ask
millionaires to pay at least as high a tax rate as their secretaries.
48%
It's better to end huge tax subsidies to oil and gas companies making
record profits than to make seniors pay more for Medicare.
Weaker messages: 1) We’ve already cut $1.9 trillion and reduced deficit by half,
so time to focus on jobs not just deficit (29%); 2) We need a balanced approach
to deficit reduction, so for every $1 in cuts should be $1 in revenue (28%).
18
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Strongest Criticisms of GOP Hit Refusal to Raise
Revenue from Wealthy/Corporations
Very Serious Concern about Republicans’ Budget Priorities
55%
We need leaders to compromise to avoid another crisis, but nearly every
Republican in Congress has signed an irresponsible pledge promising that
they will never vote to raise even one penny of revenue by closing tax
loopholes for the wealthy and big corporations.
54%
Republicans in Congress are proposing irresponsible new tax cuts for the
wealthy and corporations, while putting the entire burden of deficit reduction
on the backs of the middle class and vulnerable families.
53%
Republicans in Congress favor giving more tax breaks to the wealthiest
Americans and large corporations, while demanding cuts in services our
families depend on, like college loans, nutrition assistance for seniors, and
Head Start.
50%
Republicans in Congress are breaking their promise to seniors by pushing to
end the Medicare guarantee and replace it with a voucher plan that shifts
costs to seniors.
49%
Republicans in Congress are protecting tax breaks for companies that ship
jobs offshore, taking jobs away from American workers and hurting our
communities.
19
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Budget Debate Strengthens Democrats’ Position
In whom do you have more confidence to have the right approach in trying to reach a
budget agreement dealing with government spending and taxes?
Initial View
Post-Messaging View
+16 among
swing voters
44%
39%
+6
33%
Much
more
23%
Much
more
21%
More confidence More confidence
in Democrats
in GOP
20
+11
33%
Much
more
31%
Much
more
23%
More confidence More confidence
in Democrats
in GOP
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Republicans Have Much More to Fear Than
Democrats from Tax Issue
Which one of these is the best reason to
consider supporting the Republicans’
budget proposal?
Reduces federal spending
Which one of these is your biggest concern
about the Democrats' budget proposal?
Increases federal spending
31%
33%
Doesn’t do enough to reduce deficit
Brings down budget deficit
29%
Doesn’t increase taxes on anyone
14%
30%
Raises taxes
18%
On taxes, voters are more concerned that the Republicans will go too far in
protecting tax breaks for the wealthy and large corporations (44%) than that the
Democrats will go to far in raising taxes (35%).
21
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Message Conclusions




22
A debate framed as how much to cut federal spending means
playing on Republicans’ turf. Avoid this trap by going on offense on
tax fairness: increasing revenue from the wealthy and corporations.
Strong tax tradeoff messages (e.g. schools vs. Buffett rule) are
powerful, especially if closing loopholes.
Establish context as threat of automatic cuts, especially in
education. Democrats are preventing irresponsible cuts, not
increasing spending.
Hitting the GOP:
 Irresponsible
 Pushing new tax breaks & loopholes for wealthy/corporations
 Refuse to raise even one penny of revenue by closing loopholes
 Balancing budget on backs of middle class
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Recommended Core Budget Message
It's wrong to put the entire burden of deficit reduction on
the backs of the middle class. Republicans are proposing
to cut Social Security and Medicare, but at the same time
they refuse to consider raising even one penny of revenue
by closing corporate tax loopholes or ending tax breaks for
the wealthy. Let's ask millionaires to pay at least as high a
tax rate as their secretaries, instead of cutting education,
Social Security, and Medicaid. We should close tax
loopholes for corporations that ship jobs offshore, and use
that money to invest in jobs in America by improving our
roads and bridges. If we ask the rich and big corporations
to pay their fair share of taxes, we can be fiscally
responsible and protect the middle class.
23
Winning the Battle for Revenue and Investments – October 2013 – Hart Research for
HART
RESEARCH
A S SOC I A T ES
Winning the Battle for
Revenue and Investments
Nationwide Survey Among 1,009 2012 Voters
Conducted October 25-30, 2013; M.O.E. +/-3.1%
for