Statistical clues to social injustice Danny Dorling University of Sheffield Radical Statistics Annual Conference London, February 27th 2010 Proportions that suffer injustices of different kinds in affluent nations Fraction Subject How Labelled Description of group who suffer the injustice % Year A seventh Children Delinquent Found limited or simple at learning 13 2006 A sixth People Debarred Excluded from society in at least two ways 16 1999/2001 A fifth Adults Debtors Admit not managing to get by financially (if asked) 21 1984-2004 Households Discarded Have no car where car use has become assumed 26 2006/7 A third Families Depressed Member suffers depression or chronic anxiety disorder 33 2000 A half Citizens Disenfranchised Adults who did not or could not vote in the latest US presidential elections 46 2008 A quarter Injustices, social evils, political, philosophical and public labels combined 2010 Injustice 1942 Past 1983 Political Elitism Ignorance 6. Differences in skills and ability 2007 Philosophical 4. Threats to sense, using imagination, and thought 5. Threats to experiencing and expressing emotions freely 1. The exploitation 3. Threats to bodily integrity of those who work 9. Threats to play, ability to relax, take Sabbaths and holidays 2008 Public 3. A decline in values, lack of tolerance, compassion and respect 4. Problems concerning young people, family breakdown and poor parenting Exclusion Want 1. Problems caused by individualism, consumerism, decline in community life 2. Excessive use of drugs and alcohol, both as consequence and causes 5. Inequality and poverty, corrosive evil in an affluent society Prejudice Idleness 3. Unemployment 6. Threats to being able to use 7. Violence and crime, child abuse and exploitation (sexism 5. The economic practical reason (to be able to 8. Gender inequality, inequalities embedded in current and subordination of contribute) thinking racism) women 7. Threats to affiliation, to belonging, 9. Intolerance resulting from the beliefs of many having mutual respect religions, and similar ideas 10. Problems of attitudes to social diversity and immigration Greed Squalor 2. The inheritance 10. Threats to having control over 6. Problems caused by big business, apathy and a of wealth by a one’s environment (to having rights) democratic deficit minority 8. Threats to other species, lack of 12. Environmental issues, selfishness and insularity concern sure to backfire Despair Disease 4. Infirmity and the 1. Threats to life 11. Health problems, especially lack of care for older problems of old age 2. Threats to bodily health people Children by ability in the Netherlands, according to the OECD, 2006 (%) 26% effective 27% simple 11% developed 21% barely 2%advanced 2% none 11% limited Distribution of children by ability, according to the OECD, 2006 (%) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 World none Netherlands limited barely simple UK effective USA developed advanced School-leaving age (years) and university entry (%), Britain, 1876-2013 50 University entry 20 45 40 18 35 16 years 30 25 % 14 12 20 School leaving age 15 10 10 8 1860 5 0 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 Pearson goodness-of-fit test of Nobel prize by sex and subject, 1901–2008 Medicine Physics Chemistry Literature 184 180 149 94 84 62 753 8 1.5 2.5 11 12 0 35 total 192 181.5 151.5 105 96 62 788 men 183.5 173.4 144.8 100.3 91.7 59.2 753 8.5 8.1 6.7 4.7 4.3 2.8 35 total 192.0 181.5 151.5 105.0 96.0 62.0 788.0 men 0.5 6.6 4.2 -6.3 -7.7 2.8 0.0 -0.5 -6.6 -4.2 6.3 7.7 -2.8 0.0 total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 men 0.0015 0.2482 0.1235 0.4001 0.6524 0.1280 1.55 women 0.0327 5.3407 2.6579 8.6087 14.0354 2.7538 33.43 0.03 5.59 2.78 9.01 14.69 2.88 34.98 Observed men women Expected women (O-E) women (O-E)²/E total Peace Economics Total Male and female Nobel (and economics) laureates, by subject, 1901-2008 women 0 Economics 62 men Peace 12 Literature 11 84 94 Chemistry 2.5 Physics 1.5 149 180 8 Medicine 184 0 50 100 150 200 Female Nobel laureates (%), by decade, worldwide, 1901-2009 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 3% 1970s 4% 4% 1960s 4% 4% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2000s 1990s 1980s 1940s 1930s 1920s 1910s 1900s 1950s 0% 0% Proportion of households poor by different measures (%), Britain, 1999 Necessities (17%) Subjectively (20%) 5.5% %% 5.6% 3.4% %% 67% (not poor) (not poor % 1.8% % Low Income (19%) Pearson goodness-of-fit test of Karl Pearson’s pauper data, 1891 Paupers(P) -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 Total normal(N) binomial(B) 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 4 1 10 4 19 18 37 44 63 73 83 90 97 105 97 92 83 75 63 55 37 36 21 20 10 12 4 5 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 632 632 data(D) 0 0 0 0 0* 2 20 47 73 90 100 90 75 55 40 21 11 5 1 1 0 1* 0 0 0 632 B-D (B-D)² (B-D)²/B 1 -3 0 0 5 2 0 0 -4 -1 1 -1 1 9 0 0 25 4 0 0 16 1 1 1 0.043 0.205 0.000 0.000 0.238 0.043 0.000 0.000 0.444 0.050 0.083 0.143 1.250 Geographical distribution of paupers, England and Wales, 1891 120 normal(N) binomial(B) 100 data(D) 80 60 40 20 -20 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 0 Circling from exclusion to inclusion and back again (model) Exclusively Wealthy Asset wealthy Non-poor non-wealthy Core Poor Distribution of income inequality (US$), worldwide, 2000 1500 1250 Europe 1000 Americas 750 Asia 500 Africa 250 (..$$$$.....annually………….....) 500000 250000 131000 66000 33000 16000 8000 4000 6$ a day 3$ a day 1.4$ a day 70c a day 40c a day 0 Real growth per decade in GDP (%), per person, by continent, 1955-2001 60% Africa 1973 Asia 1969 50% Americas Europe 40% 1968 30% 1977 20% 10% 0% -10% 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 -20% Households’ ability to get by on their income in Britain, 1984-2004 Very Difficult 6% Difficult to Manage 15% Living Comfortably 31% Coping 48% Inequalities of health, privilege and wealth, in Britain, 1918-2005 (%) Year 1918 1922 1923 1924 1929 1931 1935 1945 1950 1951 1955 1959 1964 1966 1970 1974 February 1974 October 1979 1983 1987 1992 1997 2001 2005 Mortality inequality of decile groups by area Geographical Excess of Advantage concentration of worse-off if best-off national Conservative 30% (a) 10% (b) vote by area [c] 29% 35% 19% 26% 30% 14% 26% 30% 12% 25% 28% 11% 23% 25% 9% 23% 26% 9% 29% 31% 10% 25% 25% 7% 20% 18% 7% 20% 18% 7% 23% 21% 7% 25% 23% 6% 24% 21% 7% 22% 20% 8% 21% 18% 8% 20% 17% 8% 20% 17% 11% 21% 19% 9% 23% 21% 11% 25% 22% 12% 26% 25% 12% 30% 29% 14% 30% 30% 15% 30% 30% 16% National income share of best-off 1% pre-tax (d) 19% 18% 19% 18% 17% 16% 14% 13% 12% 12% 9% 9% 9% 9% 7% 7% 6% 6% 7% 8% 10% 12% 13% 16% post-tax (e) 17% 16% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 10% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 5% 6% 8% 10% 10% 13% Inequalities in survival chances to age 65 by area in Britain, 1920-2006 32% 30% 28% 26% 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 Worse-off 30% 1970 1980 Best-off 10% 1990 2000 20% Concentration of Conservative votes, British general elections, 1918-2005 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Share of all income received by the richest 1% in Britain, 1918-2005 20% Pre-Tax 18% Post-tax 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2080 2070 2060 2050 2040 2030 2020 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 1860 1850 1840 England and Wales’s net immigration by birth year, 1840-2080 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Households by number of cars, and those with no cars in Britain, 2006/07 No Car 25% One car 45% Single adult 14% Married no kids3% Married with kids 2% Lone Parents 4% Other 2% Two + Cars 30% Additional debt added annually by sector, US, 1977-2008 (US$ billion) Date 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Household debt Home Consumer mortgage credit Total Debt Households Total Business Total 86 36 388 128 106 46 489 160 117 43 498 170 90 3 440 108 67 20 538 106 47 19 549 84 105 48 695 176 127 82 958 219 182 84 1164 314 199 56 1185 261 222 32 1016 264 216 47 1042 272 225 47 920 283 199 15 892 232 174 -9 641 184 171 9 775 199 157 61 923 238 167 135 1029 323 154 147 1197 310 206 106 1336 336 216 70 1458 301 302 97 2071 426 380 112 2090 495 386 177 1735 584 507 151 2016 672 706 108 2385 831 860 104 2786 984 938 115 3126 1061 1041 95 3553 1171 964 104 4025 1169 652 134 4395 849 -46 44 2728 51 Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients with annual federal government borrowing 0.01 -0.24 0.29 -0.01 All debt State & local Federal governments government Financial sectors Domestic Foreign 117 139 159 135 190 153 165 323 256 295 221 307 208 131 -84 -7 10 145 285 273 439 567 582 560 381 180 177 455 677 889 1228 507 20 39 27 22 28 42 47 53 164 74 90 50 47 47 91 17 58 -46 -61 -21 51 67 37 17 106 144 120 115 172 151 186 48 56 53 36 77 86 161 185 197 226 216 144 155 146 247 278 304 256 156 144 145 23 -53 -71 -296 -6 258 396 362 307 183 237 1239 54 75 91 73 105 93 104 158 204 329 291 250 225 211 156 239 292 462 440 514 574 1027 1027 807 874 879 1067 978 1114 1301 1771 1040 14 24 15 24 24 16 17 8 1 10 6 7 10 24 15 24 70 -11 78 88 70 37 19 63 -11 93 42 155 113 331 124 -158 0.01 0.20 1.00 0.19 -0.29 Outstanding consumer debt as a proportion of disposable income, US, 1975-2005 140 35% Ratio 127.2 Change 31% 120 30% 96.8 25% 100 89.8 83.8 20% 69.5 80 73 62 15% 60 15% 12% 40 10% 7% 5% 8% 20 5% 0 0% 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Poverty, car exhaust emissions and pollution inhaled in Britain, by area, 1999 Social security and taxation prosecutions, Australia, counts, 1989-2003 7000 6000 Social Security Taxation 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Debt payments as a percentage of disposable income, US, 1980-2008 20 19 18 17 16 15 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Financial Obligations Ratios (total) 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 41Puerto Rico 82–96 4–17 1886 2.1 5.8 42GB 84–94 5–15 10438 .3 2.5 86–89 11–14 625 .2 1.9 90–93 7–10 625 .2 90–93 11–12 508 3.0 Rates 2.0 Canino (Canino et al., 2004) (and personal communication) Studies of adolescent depression available for metaanalysis, 1973-2006 43Brazil 44Brazil 45*USA Study number 9.7 Place Year of birth Age at interview Obs (%) Age<13 Both Ford (Ford, Goodman, & Meltzer, 2003) Fleitlich-Bilyk(Fleitlich-Bilyk & Goodman, 2004) Fleitlich-Bilyk (Fleitlich-Bilyk & Goodman, 2004) Van der Stoep (personal communication) Girls Boys Original Study, first author and citation Adolescent girls assessed as depressed (%), North America, 1984-2001 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Male/female mortality ratio by age in the rich world, 1850–1999 3.50 1855 1860 1865 1870 1875 3.00 1880 1885 1890 1895 2.50 1900 1905 1910 1915 2.00 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1.50 1945 1950 1955 1960 1.00 1965 1970 1975 1980 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 1985 0-4 0.50 1990 1995 The fractal nature of geographical divides, North– South/West– East, Britain, 2010 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 The crash: US mortgage debt, 1977-2009 (% change and US$ billion) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 The rate of prescribing antidepressants by the NHS in Scotland, 1992-2006 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 05-06 04-05 03-04 02-03 01-02 00-01 99-00 98-99 97-98 96-97 95-96 94-95 93-94 92-93 0 Credits Slideshow created by Benjamin Hennig The tables and figures from this presentation will soon be available from: http://www.policypress.co.uk/ (search for ‘injustice’ in the search box) The fully animated version of this slideshow is available as a PowerPoint document on http://sheffield.ac.uk/geography/staff/dorling_danny/lectures.html