Agriculture & Food Security
Climate Change Training Module
Agriculture & Food Security
Climate Change
Training Module
Minnesota Climate and Health Program
Minnesota Department of Health
Environmental Impacts Analysis Unit
625 Robert Street North
PO Box 64975
St. Paul, MN 55164-0975
Notice
MDH developed this presentation based on scientific
research published in peer-reviewed journals.
References for information can be found in the
relevant slides and/or at the end of the presentation.
2
Outline
•
•
•
•
Food Security
Observed Climate Changes
Crop Production
Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine &
Poultry
• Culturally Important Foods
• Other Issues
• Adaptation & Best Management Practices
3
Definitions
• Food Security:
1. Food safety
2. Amount of food
“all people at all times
have both physical and
economic access to access
to sufficient, safe and
nutritious food to maintain
a healthy and active life”
- World Health Organization
4
Minnesota Agriculture
• Economic impact of Minnesota’s agriculture:
– $75 billion per year in agricultural
production and processing
– Employment impact: 342,000 jobs
• Nationally, Minnesota is top 10 in more than
20 agricultural products:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
#1 turkey, sugar beets
#2 hogs, sweet corn for processing, oats, wild rice
#3 soybeans, spring wheat, green peas for processing, dry edible beans
#4 corn, canola, flaxseed
#5 mink pelts
#6 dairy cows, red meat, hay, cheese, honey
#7 milk, potatoes, sunflowers
#9 cattle and calves
#10 lamb
• If MN agriculture was disrupted, it could have a great impact on our
economy and food security for the U.S. and internationally
(Source: Ye, 2013)
5
Food Security and Health
• Climate change could
affect
– Amount of food
produced
– Variety and
nutritional value of
food
– Cost of food
• Minnesotans consume food from a global market; food
security is impacted by climate change not just in Minnesota
(Source: NCADAC, 2013)
6
Outline
•
•
•
•
Food Security
Observed Climate Changes
Crop Production
Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine &
Poultry
• Culturally Important Foods
• Other Issues
• Adaptation & Best Management Practices
7
Definitions
 Weather – conditions
of the atmosphere
over a short period of
time
 Climate – conditions
of the atmosphere
over long periods of
time (30- year
standard averaging
period)
(Source: NASA, 2005)
8
Observed Climate Changes
There have been three recent significant
observed climate trends in Minnesota:
 The average temperature is increasing
 The average number of days with a
high dew point may be increasing
 The character of precipitation is
changing
(Sources: Seeley, 2012; Zandlo, 2008)
9
Temperature Changes in Minnesota
Minnesota Average Temperature
12 month period ending December
49
Temperature (°F)
47
45
43
41
39
37
35
Ending Year of Period
Annual Average Temperature
10-Year Running Average
(Sources: Western Regional Climate Center, 2011a; Seeley, 2012)
10
Temperature Changes in Minnesota
Significant observations in warming pattern:
 Winter temperatures have been rising about
twice as fast as annual average temperatures
 Minimum or ‘overnight low’ temperatures
have been rising faster than maximum or
‘daytime high’ temperatures
(Source: Zandlo, 2008)
11
Temperature Changes in Minnesota
Seasonal Temperature Trends (°F per century) Based on 1895-2010 Data
SPRING: + 1.6°
AUTUMN: + 0.5°
SUMMER: + 0.8°
WINTER: + 2.2°
(Source:
Midwestern
Regional Climate
Center, 2012)
12
Dew Point Changes
 Dew point – a measure of water
vapor in the air
 A high dew point makes it more
difficult for sweat to evaporate
off the skin, which is one of the
main mechanisms the body uses
to cool itself
 The number of days with high
dew point temperatures (≥ 70°F)
may be increasing in Minnesota
(Sources: Horstmeyer, 2008; Seeley, 2012)
13
Number of Days
Dew Point Changes
(Sources: Seeley, 2012; State Climatology Office, 2012)
14
Changes in Precipitation
Minnesota Total Annual Precipitation
12 month period ending in December
40
Precipitation (inches)
35
30
25
20
15
10
Ending Year of Period
Total Annual Precipitation
10-year Running Average
(Source: Western Regional Climate Center, 2011b)
15
Precipitation Changes in Minnesota
Seasonal Precipitation Trends (inches per century) Based on 1895-2010 Data
SPRING: + 0.7 in
AUTUMN: + 1.2 in
SUMMER: + 0.8 in
WINTER: + 0.3°
(Source:
Midwestern
Regional Climate
Center, 2012)
16
Changes in Precipitation
Precipitation in Minnesota is
changing:
 More localized, heavy
precipitation events
 Potential to cause both
increased flooding and
drought
(Sources: Seeley, 2012;
State Climatology Office, 2012c)
17
Outline
•
•
•
•
Food Security
Observed Climate Changes
Crop Production
Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine &
Poultry
• Culturally Important Foods
• Other Issues
• Adaptation & Best Management Practices
18
CROP PRODUCTION
19
Climate Change Impacts
Changing climatic conditions will impact
Minnesota crop production in four primary ways:
1. Long-term changes in average temperatures and
precipitation patterns
2. Increase in pests and invasive species
3. Acute losses resulting from more frequent and
intense weather extremes
4. Impacts of runoff, soil erosion and reduced
infiltration from increased intensity of storm
events
(Source: Walthall et al, 2012)
20
Complex System
Crop production relies on a balance of temperature and
precipitation, soil composition, and atmospheric CO2
CO2
21
(Sources: USDA Global Change Task Force, 2010; Walthall et al, 2012)
Longer Growing Season
Earlier spring
thaw
Growing season
+ 2 weeks =
Growing season
Earlier Minnesota spring = longer growing season
– Midwest growing season lengthened by almost two
weeks since 1950, due in large part to earlier timing of
the last spring freeze
– Earlier pollination
– Longer growing season may increase crop production
– Species’ distributions have shifted
(Sources: NCADAC, 2013; CCSP, 2008)
22
Changing Plant Hardiness Zones
Climate change has not only brought Minnesota a
longer growing season but also changes in the
types of plants that will thrive here
(Source: National Wildlife Federation, 2010)
23
Effects of Frost Days
Increase number of frost-free days
and reduced “winter chill hours”
• Many crops require minimum number
of days near freezing to keep plants
dormant during winter
In warmer winters crops bud or
bloom earlier
• Pro: Longer growing season and
potentially larger harvest
• Con: Increased risk of damage from late
spring frost (e.g., Minnesota apples and
Michigan cherries in 2012)
(Sources: NCADAC, 2013; Walthall et al, 2012;
California Climate and Agricultural Network, 2011)
24
Pests, Diseases and Weeds
• With warmer temperatures in
Minnesota, pests, diseases and
weeds may:
– Expand northward into climatestressed areas
– Survive warming winters better
– Require increased use of pesticides
and herbicides
(Sources: Beddow, Pardey and Seeley, 2012; Walthall et al,
2012; NCADAC, 2013)
25
Warmer Summers
Warmer Minnesota summers and
Higher maximum temperatures may
• Increase crop yields with some warming
• Decrease crop yields with too much warming
(Sources: Oxfam Issue Briefing, 2012; Walthall et al, 2012;
Seeley, 2008)
26
Warmer Nights & Minimum Temps
Warmer Minnesota nights and
higher minimum temperatures may
• Stress some plants, taxing their ability
to grow and resulting in lower yields
• Cause some plants, such as tomatoes,
to ripen faster
• Disturb pollination and lower crop
productivity and reduce quality
(Sources: Walthall et al, 2012; Hanks, 2013;
NCADAC, 2013)
27
Nutritional Value
Globally, the nutritional
value of some foods may
change due to
• Elevated atmospheric CO2
(increased carbohydrates,
decreased protein & vitamins)
• Changes in cultivated varieties
(favor yield over nutrient
content)
(Sources: Davis, Epp and Riordan, 2004; Taub, Miller
and Allen, 2008; NCADAC, 2013)
28
Temperature Effects on Water
Demand
Complex interactions of temperature and precipitation
Effects of Increased Evapotranspiration
in Three Scenarios
Existing Amounts
of Precipitation
Inadequate
Water
Increased
Precipitation
Healthy Crop
Growth
Increased CO2
Potentially
Healthy Crop
Growth
(Sources: Walthall et al, 2012; Reich, 2012; NCADAC, 2013)
29
Increased
Temperature
Increased
Evapotranspiration
and Crop
Water
Demand/Use
Flood and Drought
Precipitation variability
can cause drought
• Localized, heavy
storms can result in
inadequate
precipitation in some
regions of the state
• Impacts crop yields
• Prolonged droughts
can increase fire
danger
(Sources: Seeley, 2012; CDC, U.S. EPA, NOAA and AWWA, 2010;
IDWG on Climate Change, 2008)
2007
Declared
Disasters:
X= Drought
X = Flood
30
Drought
“Crop Production Down in 2012 Due
to Drought, USDA Reports”
(Sources: NOAA, 2012; USDA NASS, 2013)
31
Precipitation Effects: Flooding
Increased precipitation in
Minnesota has been driven by
intensification of the heaviest
rainfalls, resulting in:
• Flooded fields and damaged
crops
• Increased runoff and reduced
infiltration of water for crop use
• Increased soil erosion, leading to
– Soil nutrient loss
– Sediment contamination of
nearby water bodies
(Sources: NCADAC, 2013; Walthall et al, 2012)
Source: Farm Industry News
May 24, 2012
32
Runoff and Erosion
Runoff and erosion will
be affected most by
• High rainfall intensity
• Soil quality
• Low crop cover in spring
and fall
• Land use
Source: MPR News photos of the week, June 15, 2012
(Photo courtesy of Pat Baskfield )
(Sources: Nearing et al, 2005, Sinha and Cherkauer, 2010)
33
Outline
•
•
•
•
Food Security
Observed Climate Changes
Crop Production
Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine &
Poultry
• Culturally Important Foods
• Other Issues
• Adaptation & Best Management Practices
34
LIVESTOCK: CATTLE, DAIRY
ANIMALS, SWINE & POULTRY
35
Climate Change Impacts
Changing climatic conditions affect animal
agriculture in four primary ways:
1. Feed-grain production, availability, and price
2. Pastures and forage crop production and
quality
3. Animal health, growth, and reproduction
4. Disease and pest distributions
(Source: NCADAC, 2013)
36
Animal Health
• Animal health is highly susceptible to temperature:
– Heat stress negatively affects cattle, swine and
poultry health
– Warmer winters may reduce mortality but will
likely be offset by greater mortality in hotter
summers
(Source: NCADAC, 2013)
37
Animal Growth & Reproduction
• Hotter temperatures may reduce productivity
of livestock and dairy animals
– Animals lose appetite, gain weight slower and
take longer to get to market
– Production decreases, including milk from dairy
cattle and eggs from poultry
– Reproduction decreases
resulting in smaller herds
(Source: CCSP, 2008)
38
Disease and Pest Distributions
• Climate change may
affect
– Frequency, intensity, or
distribution of animal
diseases and pests
– Livestock’s resistance to
infections and diseases
(Source: Walthall, 2012)
39
Outline
•
•
•
•
Food Security
Observed Climate Changes
Crop Production
Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine &
Poultry
• Culturally Important Foods
• Other Issues
• Adaptation & Best Management Practices
40
CULTURALLY IMPORTANT FOODS
IN MINNESOTA
41
Culturally Important Foods
• Climate change will affect the availability and
affordability of social and cultural foods
– Mental health effects
– Physical health effects
• Shortages of culturally important foods for
tribal community members in Minnesota
– Natural wild Rice
– Moose
– Traditional, cold-water fish
(Sources: IDWG on Climate Change, 2008; NCADAC, 2013)
42
Wild Rice
• Greatest long-term
threat to natural wild
rice is climate change
• Negative effects on
wild rice:
– Hot & dry conditions
– Warmer winters
– Warm, humid
conditions
– Severe weather:
• 2012 Northeast flood
(Sources: DNR, 2008; Myers, 2012)
Map of Wild Rice Locations
Source: MN DNR
43
Moose
• Moose are a critical component
of the cultural identity northern
Minnesota, cultural food source
• Decline in Minnesota moose
population
• Causes of mortality are likely
health- and stress-related
factors
• Warming climate is a contributing
factor in high mortality
(Sources: DNR, 2011; DNR, 2013;
Orrick, 2013;
Source: MN DNR
44
Fish: Warmer Water
• In Minnesota,
climate change is
warming waters
• Warming waters
stress native fish
populations and
may favor invasive
species
Sources: IDWG on Climate Change, 2008;
Peter Jacobson, DNR Fisheries Research
Supervisor
CONCEPTUAL DIAGRAM OF CLIMATE
WARMING EFFECTS ON MINNESOTA FISH
COMMUNITIES
45
Fish: Water Quality Impacts
• Climate change may
lower water levels
• Which affects
concentration of
contaminants in the
water, the
concentration of toxic
chemicals in fish and
quantity of fish
Walleye, StarTribune, April 15, 2013
• Warmer waters and rainfall intensity may be
contributing to an increase in mercury
concentrations in fish (27)
(Sources: CDC, U.S. EPA, NOAA and AWWA, 2010; Monson, 2009)
46
Outline
•
•
•
•
Food Security
Observed Climate Changes
Crop Production
Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine &
Poultry
• Culturally Important Foods
• Other Issues
• Adaptation & Best Management Practices
47
OTHER ISSUES
48
Food Prices
• Food prices may rise if
• Production declines
• Prices of inputs
increase (such as,
petroleum-based
fertilizers and
pesticides)
• Food insecurity
increases with rising
food prices
(IDWG on Climate Change, 2008;
NCADAC, 2013)
49
Food System Delivery
Climate change impact on food
system delivery:
• Damage to transport and
distribution infrastructure from
extreme weather events
• Barging/shipping: low water
levels in Mississippi and Lake
Superior
(Source: IDWG on Climate Change, 2008)
Image source:
Pete Markham
50
Food Safety
Impacts of climate change on
food safety:
• Increased need of climate control
to prevent food spoilage
• Increased runoff or flooding from
livestock to nearby fields may
cause crop contamination and
damage to stored food
(Sources: IDWG on Climate Change, 2008; Portier et al, 2010)
51
Outline
•
•
•
•
Food Security
Observed Climate Changes
Crop Production
Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine &
Poultry
• Culturally Important Foods
• Other Issues
• Adaptation & Best Management Practices
52
Best Management
Practices
Adapt to
climate
change
ADAPTATION & BEST
MANAGEMENT PRACTICES
53
Adaptation
• Adaptation is not new to agriculture
• Adaptation practices will vary by location due
to climatic, soil and topographic variability
• Strategies may include:
– Biodiversity
– Wetland restoration
– Reduce soil erosion
– Mitigate heat effects on livestock
(Source: NCADAC, 2013)
54
Biodiversity
• Biodiversity increases
resilience to changing
environmental conditions
and stresses
• Increases potential to adapt
to climate change
Agrobiodiversity includes:
• Harvested crops, livestock breeds,
fish species, and wild plants and
animals
• Supportive species: soil microbiota, bees, earthworms, etc.
• Supportive ecosystems0
(Source: IDWG on Climate Change, 2008; FAO, 2013)
55
Wetland & Buffer Management
Wetlands and buffers
can help manage too
much or too little
precipitation
Source: MDA, 2007
MN wetland restoration:
• 500,000 acres of
wetlands and
associated upland
buffers restored (as of
2007)
56
Reduce Soil Erosion
• Soil and nutrient erosion
rates may increase with
more intense rainfall events
associated with climate
change
• Strategies :
–
–
–
–
Conservation tillage
Crop residue management Source: Farmer D Blog, by Steven Bell on November 14, 2011
Perennial crops and cover crops
Management of livestock grazing intensities
• Strategies may also enhance water management
during drought
(Source: Walthall et al, 2012)
57
Mitigate Heat Effects
• Hot weather increases water consumption
– Cattle increase their water consumption by 20-50% when heat
stressed
• Alleviate heat stress in cattle, poultry and swine
– Install cooling systems (evaporative cooling, air conditioning
or geothermal)
– Increase air movement
– Provide plenty of water
and shade
– Manage diet for weather
(type of food and time
of day)
(Sources: UC-Davis, UMN and WSU, 2012; UMN Extension, 2012)
58
Promote Diverse Food Supply
• Diverse food supply –
balance of food grown
locally and regionally
– Diversity of locally grown
food insulates MN from
climate change impacts in
other states and countries
– Minnesota Grown promotes
local producers of specialty
crops and livestock
http://www3.mda.state.mn.us/mngrown/
Source: Minnesota Grown Pick of the Month
newsletter, January/February 2013
59
Local Public Health Actions
Spotlight on SHIP
From 2009-2012 Statewide
Health Improvement Program
(SHIP) funds have funded local
public health activities that
support healthy eating and local
farms. Achievements include:
• Farm to School programs in
440 schools, reaching 235,00
students
• 95% increase in the number of
farmers markets across the
state
Increase food security through
programs that support food
education and health eating
• Food education
• Promote local food initiatives
– Farm to School programs
– Farmers’ markets
• Accept SNAP* and WIC** at
produce and farmers’ markets
*SNAP = Supplemental Nutrition Assistance
Program, formerly known as Food Stamps
**WIC = Women, Infants and Children
Both programs are supported by USDA
60
Local Public Health Actions
Reduce potential increases in
foodborne illnesses due to
changes in temperature and
precipitation
• Educate on proper food
handling (e.g., washing fruits
and vegetables)
• Monitor MDH website for
warnings on fish consumption:
http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/eh/fish/
61
Summary
Our health depends on reliable, nutritious, adequate supply
of food and the resources to procure our food
Changes in climate and weather may lead to variability in
agricultural production
Production variability may affect food prices, food security
and culturally important foods
Farmers can implement adaptation strategies to minimize the
impacts of climate change
Local public health can increase food security through programs that
support food education and encourage healthy eating
62
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by cooperative agreement
5UE1EH000738 from the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Special thanks to the following people for their
contributions to the creation of this training module:
Mark Abrahamson, Minnesota Department of Agriculture
Minden Buswell, University of Minnesota
Mary Hanks, Minnesota Department of Agriculture
Kevin Hennessy, Minnesota Department of Agriculture
Larry Jacobson, University of Minnesota
Kathy Kromroy, Minnesota Department of Agriculture
Ann Pierce, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency
David Schmidt, University of Minnesota
Joshua Stamper, Minnesota Department of Agriculture
Curt Zimmerman, Minnesota Department of Agriculture
Mark Zumwinkle, Minnesota Department of Agriculture
63
Thank You
Questions?
Contact the Minnesota Climate and Health Program:
651-201-4898
health.climatechange@state.mn.us
http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/climatechange/
August 26, 2013
64
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