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Nautilus Workshop 2010 @ Seoul
Urban Security
湊 隆幸
Minato, Takayuki
Copyright (C) 2010 Takayuki Minato. All Rights Reserved.
Contents
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 Urban security linked to energy security
 Resource problems in Cross-National Linkage
 Technology-driven, energy-free society
also.
 Image of technology-driven society
新領域創成科学研究科 湊 隆幸
Takayuki Minato, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences
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Interconnected Problems & Solutions
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Technologies as medium
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Technology-driven
Societies
Policy
Technology
active
Resources
reactive
Secondary Effects
Goods
&
Services
Technology : Not accomplished knowledge to make
artifacts, but medium led to “something”
新領域創成科学研究科 湊 隆幸
Takayuki Minato, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences
GHG Emissions in Cities
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To see GHG emissions
as a variable,
 Large cities accounts for
75% of total GHG.
 Energy is heavily dependent
on natural resources.
Thus, energy security is
a major factor for sustainable
cities.
Global Atmospheric Research：Cited from Clinton Climate
initiative
新領域創成科学研究科 湊 隆幸
Takayuki Minato, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences
社会の移り変わり Social Change
1955
60
70
高度経済
成長
国力
中流化
High Economic
Growth
Middle-Class
Family
大戦終了
80
国際化
Internationalization
・東京ｵﾘﾝﾋﾟｯｸ
End Of War (1945）
・水俣病
Olympic(1964）
・大阪万博
Int’l Exposition(1970）
Minamata Disease,
Pollution (1956）
L05-6 6
2010-
90
円高・
バブル
Strong Yen
Bubble
老齢化
不景気 少子化
Recession
Aging&Decreasing Children
・ﾌﾟﾗｻﾞ合意
Plaza Accord(1985）
・PKO
Cambodia(1992）
・石油ｼｮｯｸ
Oil Shock(1973)
・八幡製鉄所 ・新幹線
Yahata Steel
Company(1897）
Shinkannsen(1959）
・地下鉄
・霞が関ﾋﾞﾙ
・リニア
Linear Express(201?)
Tokyo Metro(1953） Skyscraper(1968）
新領域創成科学研究科 湊 隆幸
Takayuki Minato, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences
Influence Diagram
Aging
Society▲
Welfare
Budget▲
Birthrate▼
Global
Warming
CHINA
Resource
Imperialism
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Personal
Saving▼
Working
Population▼
JAPAN
Technology
Development
JAPAN
Industry
Shift
KOREA
Market
Competition
: Known
: Un-known
Immigration
Economic
Growth
▼▲
Number of
Households
Life Style
Change
Energy&Food
Consumption
Urban
Security
新領域創成科学研究科 湊 隆幸
Takayuki Minato, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences
Cross-National Linkages
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Problem Linkages:
CHINA resource imperialism ⇒
leads to conflicts in the Asia ⇒
causes shortage of rare resources ⇒
Increase acquisition costs ⇒
resource insecurity for JAPAN (& maybe KOREA)
Solution Linkages:
necessitates alternative technologies ⇒
(resource-independent)
making JAPAN (&KOREA) shift to
energy efficient industries ⇒
thereby energy security in the countries
新領域創成科学研究科 湊 隆幸
Takayuki Minato, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences
Intra-Country Linkages : JAPAN
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Problem Linkages:
decrease in birthrate & aging society,
decrease in working population ⇒
causes cost inefficiency
& affects economic growth ⇒
necessitate change of urban lifestyle ⇒
urban insecurity
Solution Linkages:
new technologies ⇒
changes people life style
also, competitive industry ⇒
possible economic growth
thereby urban security
新領域創成科学研究科 湊 隆幸
Takayuki Minato, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences
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Technology Road Map by METI
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Technology Strategy Map
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Objective: Backcasting technological specifications
for public, trans., industrial, and energy sectors.
Conditions: Reducing CO2/GDP emission by 1/3(2050), 1/10(2100).
Assumptions: Energy consumption x1.5(2050), x2.1(2100)
peak of oil production(2050), natural gas(2100).
Scenario:
Fossil with CCS
(Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage)
100%
Short -Mid term
Recyclable
Energy
Long term
Nuclear
100%
100%
Source with Modification: “Technology Strategy Map (Energy)” by Advanced Industrial Science and Technology)
新領域創成科学研究科 湊 隆幸
Takayuki Minato, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences
Innovative Energy Technology
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Objective: Innovative technologies for government initiative
Conditions: Reducing GHG emission 50% by 2050 (Cool Earth 50)
Technologies:
(Industry)
11. Material Processing Techs.
(Energy) –
12. Innovative Steel Manufacturing
1. Natural Gas Thermal Power
(Public/Households)
2. Coal Thermal Power
13. Energy Conservation House/Building
3. CCS
14. Lighting
4. Innovative Solar Power
15. Decentralized Fuel Cell
5. Advanced Nuclear Power
16. Heat Pump
6. Superconductivity
17. Information Devices/System
(Transportation)
18. HEMS/BEMS/EMS
7. ITS
(Common Technologies)
8. Fuel Cell Automobile
19. Electricity Storage
9. Plug-in Hybrid Car
20. Power Electronics
10. Biomass Fuel
21. Hydrogen Production/Storage/Storage
Source: “Innovative Energy Technology Plan” by METI
新領域創成科学研究科 湊 隆幸
Takayuki Minato, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences
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Possible Scenario
& Images of Data-driven Society
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Drivers & Uncertainty
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+++
Impact on “Social Costs”
+
▼Working Population
(De-population/Aging)
▲Maintenance of Infra.
▲Medical Expenses
▲Price of Natural Resources
▲Crime Rate
▲Financial Crisis (Regional)
Urbanization
or
Compact
▼Business Portfolio (New
Business, Shift , etc…)
▲Innovative Technologies
(Nano-tech, Bio, IT, etc..)
▲Income Differential
▼Educational Excellence
◆”Cultural Landscape”
◆Immigration
Rurbanization
or
“Pastoral”
Degree of Uncertainty
+++
新領域創成科学研究科 湊 隆幸
Takayuki Minato, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences
Contrasting World
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Compact
Pastoral
Homogeneous “Parasite” Heterogeneous landscape
Description
families moving in cities
(food, resorts,..)
Economic Growth
Innovative Technologies
Key Drivers
• “Ventures” by old, women • Telecommuting Working
Business
• Conglomerate
• P to P Business
• Personal & Horizontal
Transportation • Public & Vertical
• Automated commuter,
• Hybrid-car, Rapid Train
Walking, ….
Network
• Multi-functional services in • Self medi-care, robots
Welfare
one residence, intensive
• Remote education
care
• Centralized, BEMS/HEMS • Distributed, DeEnergy
• Micro, Mobile Electricity commercialized, Selfgeneration
• Individual Monitoring,
Security/Safety • Gate City,
•
Tracing, Alarming System
“Ubiquitous”
新領域創成科学研究科 湊 隆幸
Takayuki Minato, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences
Ubiquitous Society
(“Smart Life”)
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(Security)
(Electric Paper)
Source: http://www.mof.go.jp/singikai/
buturyu_boueki/siryou/ka160312a.pdf
http://jp.fujitsu.com/group/labs/techinfo/techguide/list/paper_p05.html
新領域創成科学研究科 湊 隆幸
Takayuki Minato, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences
Compact City & Micro-energy
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Gate City ?
http://www.roppongihills.com/jp/facilities/
(Wireless Devices)
• Medical Devices
• Mobile phones, …
• Wireless Cloth
• Home Appliances
• Wireless Automobile
http://www.onaka-kenko.com/endoscope-closeup/
endoscope-technology/et_061.html
(Micro Electricity)
http://www.soundpower.co.jp/seihin.html
• Vibration, sounds, etc.
• Body temperature,
Walking Energy, etc
新領域創成科学研究科 湊 隆幸
Takayuki Minato, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences
Summary
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 Japan as a technology-driven society,
economically, environmentally, and socially
as well.
 Needs for resource-independent innovative
technologies.
However, we may also need to consider
 Which world would be preferred and why?
 If another world came about, what would it
mean for us?
新領域創成科学研究科 湊 隆幸
Takayuki Minato, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences
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End