LECTURE 7 The AS-AD model Øystein Børsum 28th February 2006 Overview of forthcoming lectures Lecture 7: Aggregate demand and aggregate supply Lecture 8: Stabilization policies Goals for stabilization policies: Stable output and inflation Optimal policy rule: Demand and supply shocks Lecture 9: Limits to stabilization policies Macroeconomic dynamics in the AS-AD model Rational expectations and the Policy Ineffectiveness Proposition, the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem and the Lucas Critique Policy rules versus discretion: Credibility of economic policy Real business cycles (section 19.4) Lecture 10: Open economy Overview of the AS-AD model with endogenous monetary policy On a compact form, the SRAS-LRAS-AD model can be analyzed as a two-equation model in the (y;) space A temporary, negative supply shock increases inflation and lowers output. Adjustment to equilibrium is gradual A temporary, positive demand shock increases inflation and temporarily increases output. Output “undershoots” its long-run value in a gradual adjustment to equilibrium These dynamic development of the model after a temporary shock can be computed by two first-order difference equations Permanent shocks may change the long-run equilibrium values of output and the real interest rate Simulations show that a modified version of this AS-AD model can reproduce stylized business cycle facts Elements of aggregate supply and aggregate demand yt y 1 gt g 2 rt r vt rt it e t 1 it r h t b yt y e t 1 * t yt y st e t t 1 e t Compact form of the AS-AD model The AD curve can be re-written on a more compact form: yt y yt *y , t zt , *zt t g1 gt g 2h 2 h vt 1 gvtt where , zt , zt 1 2b 1 2b 1 2b 1 2b AD: 1 t yt y zt * Replacing expected inflation in the short-run AS curve gives: SRAS: t t 1 yt y st Graphical illustration of the AD-SRAS-AS relationships Illustration of a short-run macroeconomic equilibrium where output below its natural, long-run value Example 1: A temporary negative supply shock Temporary negative supply shock: s1 > 0 (with s2, s3, … = 0) Shifts the SRAS vertically by s1 SRAS: t t 1 yt y st The long-run AS is not affected (natural level of output unchanged) Some possible interpretations: Industrial conflict, bad harvest, (exogenous increase in production costs) or temporary producer cartel (e.g. OPEC) The path to long-run equilibrium after a temporary negative supply shock is gradual Illustration of the path from short to long-run macroeconomic equilibrium after a negative supply shock Example 2: A temporary positive demand shock Temporary positive demand shock: z1 > 0 (with z2, z3, … = 0) Shifts the AD curve vertically by z1 / AD: 1 t yt y zt * Long-run supply is not affected (natural level of output unchanged) Some possible interpretations: Temporary optimism about the future growth potential of the economy A temporary positive demand shock is followed by a period of recession in order to curb inflation Illustration of the path from short to long-run macroeconomic equilibrium after a positive demand shock LRAS SRAS2 SRAS1 1 2 E1 E2 Ē AD1 z1 AD0 AD2 y y2 y0 y1 Finding the dynamic solution to the AS-AD model Define the output gap and the inflation gap: yˆt yt y ˆt t * Set st = zt = 0 and rewrite the AS-AD model as 1 AD: ˆt 1 yˆt 1 , SRAS: ˆt 1 ˆt yˆt 1 2h 1 2b The dynamic solution to the AS-AD model Rearranged, this gives to linear first-order difference equations: yˆt 1 yˆt , and Solutions: yˆt yˆ 0 t , ˆt ˆ0 t , 1 1 t 0,1, 2,..... t 0,1, 2,..... 0 < β < 1 assures a stable long-run equilibrium ˆt 1 ˆt With plausible parameter values, the model requires about four years to adjust half the shock The adjustment to a temporary negative supply shock (s1=1). Illustration of a quarterly AS-AS model calibrated with plausible parameter values After a temporary demand shock, the model “overshoots” the long-run equilibrium output The adjustment to a temporary negative demand shock (z1= -1). Illustration of a quarterly AS-AS model calibrated with plausible parameter values Permanent shocks and long-run equilibrium values Permanent shocks may change the long-run equilibrium values of y and r The AS-AD model relative to the initial values of natural output and the natural interest rate: yt y0 vt 2 rt r0 , vt vt 1 gt g t t 1 yt y0 st Example 1: A permanent supply shock: Initial equilibrium with s0 = 0 and thereafter st = s ≠ 0 for t = 1,2,… Equilibrium condition: Inflation and output are stable t t 1 , yt y , st s A permanent, negative supply shock reduces equil. output and raises the equil. real interest rate The effect of a permanent supply shock on natural output: s y y0 To equate demand and supply, the equilibrium real interest rate changes The effect of a permanent supply shock on the equilibrium real interest rate: s r r0 2 A permanent, positive demand shock raises the equil. real interest rate and leaves output unchanged Example 2: A permanent demand shock: Initial equilibrium with v0 = 0 and thereafter vt = v ≠ 0 for t = 1,2,… The permanent demand shock does not affect natural output. The equilibrium real interest rate changes to curb the demand shock. The effect of a permanent demand shock on the equilibrium real interest rate: v r r0 2 Illustration: A change in the natural level of output Arbitrage The Frisch-Slutzky paradigm Stylized facts on business cycles (chpt. 14) raise two key questions: o Why do movements in economic activity display persistence? o Why do these movements tend to follow a cyclical pattern? Our exposition of the AS-AD model follows the Frisch-Slutzky paradigm o Unsystematic impulses (demand and supply shocks) initiate the business cycles o The structure of the economy generate systematic fluctuations (propagation mechanism) Illustration: Simulations on the AS-AD model with a simple stochastic shock process Demand and supply shocks follow stable first-order stochastic processes with positive persistence: zt 1 zt xt 1 , 0 1 st 1 st ct 1 , 0 1 The innovations to the shock processes are independent and identically distributed according to the normal distribution xt ~ N (0, x2 ) , xt i.i.d . ct ~ N (0, c2 ) , ct i.i.d . Graphical comparison of actual and model fluctuations Model properties compared with actual stylized business facts