What Really Drives Alternative Energy Funding?
Andrew H. Harris, Maj, USAF
Setting the Stage
• Oil is a finite resource and where America gets
it makes a huge economic and strategic
difference
• Separating myths from reality:
– Are Democrats really “greener”?
– Is the government really responding to
“global warming” with more alternative energy
dollars?
– …or is it really just crude oil prices which fuel
the enthusiasm for alternative energy (and the
funding for its development)?
Introduction
• Define “alternative energy” and “alternative
energy funding” for this discussion
• Why is this discussion important?
• Compare Energy R & D funding (alternative
energy funding) since 1976 with:
– Political party of the Presidents
– Emergence of global warming as a major concern
– Crude oil prices
• Wrap up
Oil Prices 1970-2008
Oil Dependence
• Imported oil meets 66% of America’s current daily petroleum needs
• Given present trends, oil and natural gas will meet 60% of total
world energy needs by 2030
Defining “Alternative Energy?”
Biofuels
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Waves
Title 26, Chapter 79, Section 7701 of the revised U.S. Code: "the term alternative energy facility means a facility for producing electrical
or thermal energy if the primary energy source is not oil, natural gas, coal, or nuclear power." Today, alternative energy sources used in
the United States today include biofuels for transportation, as well as solar, hydroelectric and wind power for electricity.
Defining “Alternative
Energy Funding”
• Alternative energy is mainly an R & D function
• United States Budget Item: “Energy
Non-Defense Research and Development”
• Gives us a good “yardstick” to measure US
government funding for purposes of this
exercise)
President’s Political Party Versus
Energy R & D Funding
• Energy R & D funding
rises during Carter and
falls under Reagan/Bush
41
• Rises then falls under
Clinton then sharp rise
under Bush 43
• The trend doesn’t suggest
a correlation with
Democrat/Republican
president
• Data does not show one
party is “greener”
• Data does suggest
something else is driving
this train
The Global Warming Factor
• As global warming
interest/pubic
awareness/concern grew
steadily since 1976,
alternative energy funding
trend obviously didn’t follow
suit
• Data does not suggest a
correlation between the
global warming issue and
Energy R & D funding
Global Warming Interest:
1 = <25% of public sees global
warming as a major concern
2 = >25% and <50% of public see
global warming as a major concern
3 = >50% of public cites global
warming as a major concern
Comparing to Crude Oil Prices
• As trend line shows,
crude oil prices and Energy
R & D funding follow each
other closely until 1998
• Starting in 1998, crude oil
prices shoot up but Energy
R & D funding doesn’t start
to follow crude’s uptrend
until 2007
• Data shows a correlation
between crude oil prices
and Energy R & D funding
from 1976 to 1998, then
correlation loosens up
considerably
Wrap Up
• The idea that Democrats are “greener” than
Republicans is not supported by the data
• Our global warming scare is not resulting in
more Energy R & D dollars being spent by Uncle
Sam
• Comparing crude oil prices to Energy R & D
spending produces the strongest correlation
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