Opening
and
Welcome
Lee Gillam
University of
Surrey
Welcome
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Attendees and presenters
 Workshop context
– NAMIC
– ACE/GIDA
– FIONA
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Goal: FP6 IP (and general wealth)
Remarks
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You can make a lot of money from the stock market; you can lose a lot
of money also
You can lose money in a very short time but it takes a long time to
make money
Just because a stock goes down, doesn’t mean it can’t go lower
Stock market not really a gamble if you pick good companies you
think will do well, not just because of the stock price
The long-term returns from stocks are both relatively predictable and
also far superior to the long-term returns from bonds
Winners/losers
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Microsoft
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Went public in 1986 – March 86, 19c a share
Sept 1989 – just under $1 a share
April 1995 - $10 a share
Dec 1996 - $20 a share
Feb 1998 - $40 a share
Peak Dec 1999 - $119.94 a share
Currently $51 a share
Winners/losers

Microsoft
– Hardware Wars – Dell, HP, Compaq, IBM
– Microsoft sold what ran on these boxes – did not care
about hardware costs
– Lower prices of hardware – consumer demand up =
more sales of Windows
– Microsoft makes more profits
– Petrol companies don’t care how much cars cost, as
long as they use lots of fuel!
Winners/losers
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Marconi (Caveat Emptor!)
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June 1987, £1.99 per share
May 1988, £1.16 per share
July 1989, £2.17 per share
December 1990, £1.37
August 1993, £2.93
December 1999, £10.90 per
share
– August 2000, £12.20
– July 2002, 3.1p a share
– Lost 99.75% of value in these
last 2 years
Reuters – ‘Bad News?’
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Jan 1986, 94.5p
Feb 2000, £14.02
July 2002, £2.80
Lost 80% of value in just over
2 years
Thorntons – Sweet!!
– Feb 2000, £1.23
– July 2002, £1.08
– ‘Comforting’ to know?
Winners/losers
1998 – S&P500 up 28%. 50 biggest up 40%, other 450
hardly moved
 Late 1990s Intel, Cisco and a few others dominated
NASDAQ
 $100,000 in S&P500 on July 1 1994, fully invested, up to
$341,722. Out of market for 30 days of biggest gains, only
$153,792
 $500000 in long term bonds paying 7%, income $35000.
Inflation rate of 5%, buying power halved in 10 years, and
two-thirds in 15 years. Stocks should give 11% return, 3%
dividend, 8% growth in dividends and stock prices.
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1990’s winners
Company
Dell
$10,000 at end 1989 = (end
1999)
$8.9M
Microsoft
$960,000
Intel
$372,000
Harley Davidson
$251,000
Gap
$232,000
10% compounded interest for 10 years = $26000
Sources of Information

One up on Wall Street: Peter Lynch
 Beating the Street: Peter Lynch
 Everyone’s guide to online stock investing:
Alexander Davidson
 Yahoo Finance
Schedule
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0915 - 0930: Opening and Welcome Lee Gillam: University of Surrey
0930 - 0950: Events and the Causes of Events: Khurshid Ahmad, University of Surrey
0950 - 1010: Automatic Analysis of Corporate Financial Disclosures: Darina M. Slattery,
Richard F.E. Sutcliffe, Eamonn J. Walsh: University of Limerick and University College
Dublin
1010 - 1030: A Financial News Summarisation System based on Lexical Cohesion:
Paulo Cesar Fernandes de Oliveira, Khurshid Ahmad, Lee Gillam: University of Surrey
1030 - 1100: Break
1100 - 1120: Processing the language of predicting and forecasting in an Italian
corpus of economic reports: Maria Teresa Musacchio, University of Trieste
1120 - 1140: Economic News and Stock Market Correlation: A Study of the UK
Market:Lee Gillam, Khurshid Ahmad, Saif Ahmad, Matthew Casey, David Cheng, Tugba
Taskaya, Paulo C F de Oliveira and Pensiri Manomaisupat: University of Surrey
1140 - 1200: Discussion and Closing Remarks