ENERGY TRANSITIONS IN
HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE:
SOME THOUGHTS
Martin V. Melosi
University of Houston
A Standard Definition
The concept of ‘energy transitions' is based
on the notion that a single energy source, or
group of sources, dominated the market
during a particular period or era, eventually
to be challenged and then replaced by
another major source or sources.
From Emmett Duffy, “The Next Energy Transition” (2007)
(via Cutler Cleveland)
From Paul Kedrosky, “Energy Transitions, Then and
Now,” (July, 2010)
From Robert Bryce, “Wood to Coal to Oil to Natural Gas and Nuclear:
The Slow Pace of Energy Transitions” (Aug., 2010)
Periodization Construct
Period I (pre-1820): dominated by human/animal power, wind-,
wood-, and waterpower.
Period II (1820-1914): Industrial era dependent on wood,
waterpower, and utlimately coal.
Period III (1914-9145): Oil emerges as a leading fuel; electrical
power production dramatically increases.
Period IV (1945-1970s): A ‘postindustrial’ economy dependent on
oil, punctuated by the 1970s ‘energy crisis.’
Period V: (1970s-?): Post-energy crisis America, still tied to
carbon with some rumblings for change in later years.
Period I
Period
II
Period III
Period IV
Period V
Concerns: Energy Transitions Concept
Too Rational?
• Concept utilized too narrowly?
• Is it a more fluid process than rigidly
ordered?
• What are its quantitative and qualitative
characteristics?
• Need to contextualize energy transitions.
Paraphrased from Coping With
Abundance (1985)
The United States was blessed with abundant energy
sources. Whether immediately exploitable or only
potentially so, these sources were vital. Abundance
affected the way Americans used energy, how
businesses developed and marketed it, and how
government established policies about it. While
bestowing many benefits, the array of energy
sources posed problems of choice. The luxury of
choice was preferable to the necessity to choose,
but it often proved a curse when policy makers tried
to arrive at coherent energy strategies. The energy
history of the United States has been an ongoing
effort to cope with abundance.
More Concerns
• Regional versus national issues.
• Dominant energy source or dominant fuel?
• Any such things as a ‘single-source’
transition?
• Fuels and flexible use.
• Energy transitions and path dependency.
Path Dependency
• Path dependence can provide perspective on the
serviceable life of technologies and the constraint of
choices available to later generations of decision
makers.
• According to economic historian Louis Cain:
“Choices made in the first generation eliminate some
alternatives (yet to be discovered) that will be
available...in the second generation.”
Conclusions
• Will there be a post-carbon transition and
when?
• What about bridge fuels?
• What about conservation as a source of
energy?
• What about energy and technical
efficiencies?