Mobile regions, healthy people:
Exploring the transportation – land
use – environment – public health
connection
Lake Arrowhead Symposium
October 2005
Genevieve Giuliano
University of Southern California
USC
Subtitle: The benefits and costs of
automobility
• Another subtitle: the benefits and costs of
cheap transportation
• The costs – a long and growing list
• The benefits – a list increasingly ignored
• Focus on human costs and benefits
USC
Costs
Congestion
Health effects of pollution
Traffic crashes
Genevieve Giuliano
Physical activity?
USC
Private Vehicles
1969
1977
1983
1990
1995
2001
Persons/HH
3.16
2.83
2.69
2.56
2.63
N/A
Vehicles/HH
1.16
1.59
1.68
1.77
1.78
1.90
Veh/driver
0.70
0.94
0.98
1.01
1.00
1.08
Veh trips/HH
3.83
3.95
4.07
5.69
6.36
N/A
VMT/driver
20.6
19.5
18.7
28.4
32.1
29.0
Source: NPTS/NHTS
USC
Basic stats: 5 county urbanized
region
Population
(millions)
Employment
(millions)
1980
1990
2000
11.192
14.012
15.779
5.388
6.875
7.242
USC
LA/OC Urbanized Area
1982
2002
Total daily VMT
165M
293M
Total road miles
22.8K
26.3K
Total person-hrs
delay
Congestion cost
186M
625M
$1.951B
$11.231B
19 hrs
49 hrs
Delay/person
Source: Texas Transportation Institute
USC
LA/LB largest
container port in US,
5th in world
SCAG 2005 State of the Region
Air pollution
• Growing recognition of health hazards of small
particulates
– SCAQMD studies
– USC health panel studies
• Role of goods movement, international trade
– Large increases in truck traffic, port activity
– Jurisdiction issues
• Increasing marginal costs of emissions
reductions
USC
Other problems:
PM10 and PM2.5
SCAG 2005 State of the Region
PLA Emissions: NO2/PM10
PM 10 emissions sources – POLA
Harbor craft, 18%
Cargo
equipment, 12%
Ocean vessels,
55%
RR locomotives,
6%
HD vehicles, 9%
USC
Adverse Health Impacts
• USC researchers have discovered:
– Deaths increased by up to 17% for each
increase of 10 micrograms per cubic meter of
PM 2.5 particles.
– Deaths from heart disease rose by as much
as 39%.
– More lung cancer deaths also occurred.
– Children near freeways have 89% higher risk
of developing asthma
USC
Cancer deaths per 1 million persons
Source: SCAQMD MATES II
Clusters of Concern
Source: LA Weekly 9/23-29/05
Traffic safety 2004
Killed
Injured
Total
42,636
2,788,000
Vehicle occupants
33,134
2,594,000
Motorcycle
4,008
76,000
Pedestrian
4,641
68,000
Bike
725
41,000
Other non-occ
128
9,000
Source: NTSA 2004 Statistics
USC
Top 10 leading causes of death by
age group, 2002
Age
<1
yr
1–
3
4–
15
rank
8
2
1
share
0.4
16 – 25 – 35 – 45 – > 65
24
34
44
64
1
1
10.0 22.2 34.0 16.8
3
8
7.5
2.2
n/a
all
8
1.8
Source: NTSA 2005
USC
Physical Activity
• Physical activity “engineered” out of daily
life
– Fewer high activity jobs
– More labor saving devices
– More leisure time
– More TV and video games
– More motorized travel
• Shifts in travel significant, but represent
small proportion of daily activities
USC
Summary of results, hours/day
Base
Nonmotorized
travel up
100%
Active paid
work up
10%
Active free
time up
25%
All
strategies
Female
Active
Not active
4.10
4.20
4.30
4.21
4.52
19.90
19.80
19.70
19.79
19.49
2.6%
4.8%
2.6%
10.3%
3.93
4.02
4.16
4.04
4.36
20.07
19.98
19.84
19.96
19.64
2.3%
5.8%
2.7%
11.0%
Change
active
Male
Active
Not active
Change
active
Benefits
• Access to…..
– jobs, education
– preferred housing, neighborhoods, amenities
– social networks
– health care
– consumer goods and services
• Transportation as equalizer
USC
Access to jobs
• Auto vs transit access to jobs
– Studies show transit access much inferior, even in
cities with extensive service
– Transit travel times
– Transit schedule, service mismatches
• Spatial mismatch
– Patterns of population, job decentralization
– Where jobs are vs where workers are
• Job mobility
– Job turnover
– Careers and sequential jobs
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Access to housing, neighborhoods
• Varied preferences for housing, neighborhoods
– Preferences for single family detached
– Niche markets
• West Hollywood, Santa Monica, San Marino
• Community attachment
– Attachment to “place”
– Social networks
• Jobs/housing balance
– Longer commutes make possible more preferred job
and residence choices
– Residential mobility lower than job mobility
• Access to parks, recreation, other amenities
USC
Access to social networks
• Mobility and well-being among the elderly
– Social integration key problem for elderly
• Social roles, social networks
– Psychological importance of out-of-home activities
– Seniors identify mobility as critical element in life
satisfaction
– Car as freedom, independence, means for mobility
– Cessation of driving
• Loss of independence, social isolation, reduced access to
essential services
• Distributed families, friends and cheap air travel
USC
Access to health care
• Problems of the uninsured
– As more providers avoid treating uninsured,
access to healthcare declines
– Difficulties in transporting the sick, frail
• Transit not an option in an emergency
• Problems of the insured
– Provider restrictions
– Finding the best possible care
USC
Access to consumer goods and
services
• The poor pay more
– Captured markets
• Limited variety of food, consumer goods in
low income neighborhoods
– Living in a “food desert”
– Banks and financial services
• Competition and scale economies
– Target, Wal-Mart not all bad
USC
Transportation as equalizer
• Options to address spatial disparities
– Disperse the poor among the non-poor
– Promote jobs, economic activity in poor,
minority areas
– Provide transport to overcome spatial
segmentation
• The first two options face many barriers;
transport becomes the default
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Conclusion
Automobility has large costs and
large benefits. The policy
challenge is to reduce the costs
while preserving the benefits.
USC