ACADEMY OF CANADIAN ENGINEERING
ENERGY SUPERPOWER BOOK
Chapter 5: Hydroelectricity
5.1 Current State of Hydroelectricity
5.1.1 History and Context
5.1.2 Developed and Still Available Hydroelectric Potential
5.1.3 Differences Between Real and Theoretical Potential
5.1.4 Potential Immediate Projects Under Review
5.1.5 Hydropower: Complementary Industries
5.1.6 Dawn of a New Gold Rush
5.2 Hydropower: Environment and Society
5.2.1 Environment and Society
5.2.2 Versatility of the Projects
5.2.3 Climate Change
5.2.4 Exporting Water?
5.2.5 Canada-wide Context
5.3 Potential Major Projects
5.3.1 Inventory of the Potential Projects (Reminder)
5.3.2. Canada-wide Essential Prerequisite
5.3.3 Major Potential Hydroelectricity Projects
Lower Churchill
Tidal Energy
St. Lawrence Basin and “Water from the North” scheme
James Bay
Western Canada
5.4 Recommendations
5.4.1A Canada-wide Transmission Network
5.4.2 Alberta: the necessity of a provincial water and power authority
5.4.3 Inventory of the hydroelectricity potential of Canada
5.5. References
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ACADEMY OF CANADIAN ENGINEERING
ENERGY SUPERPOWER BOOK
Chapter 5: Hydroelectricity
5.1 Current State of Hydroelectricity
5.1.1 History and Context
5.1.2 Developed and Still Available Hydroelectric Potential
5.1.3 Differences Between Real and Theoretical Potential
5.1.4 Potential Immediate Projects Under Review
5.1.5 Hydropower: Complementary Industries
5.1.6 Dawn of a New Gold Rush
5.1.1 Current State of Hydroelectricity
In this land of lakes and rivers that is Canada, the development of the hydropower
potential began quickly. Indeed, from the commissioning of the first plant, Chute
Chaudière, in Ottawa in 1881, others would follow at a more and more frantic pace,
including the Chutes Montmorency in 1885. In 1892, a plant went into operation on the
Lachine Canal in Montreal, soon followed by the Bow River plant in Calgary, in 1893.
Soon after came the Lachine Rapids de Lachine in September 1897 and the Chambly
plant in 1899. Ontario, Newfoundland and British Columbia, all three completed their
first hydroelectric plants in 1898, when Sir Adam Beck was already fascinated by the
possibilities offered by the Niagara Falls.
Already in 1900, the first major hydroelectric complex went into production in
Shawinigan, a complex whose progressive development would continue nonstop until the
early forties, with a cascade of nine major dams such as Grand'Mère, La Tuque, Rapide
Blanc, La Trenche Beaumont and Gouin.
And, Ontario is no exception. Is it necessary to point out that the twenties began precisely
with the commissioning of the Sir Adam Beck – 1 Plant, in Niagara Falls, and undisputed
sign of things to come. Indeed, the twenties were not being used only to develop
hydroelectricity site by site but by an approach studying entire complexes, namely on the
Rivière des Outaouais, in northern Ontario and in Quebec, on the Péribonka, Saguenay
and Gatineau rivers. And what about the fact that most of these projects, many of which
are now approaching or have reached a century of operation, including the Shawinigan –
2 dating from the fall of 1911, were already so impressive in scope, even by today
standards ?
2
The Second World War, curiously, does nothing to moderate the development of
hydropower; people even manage to build a power plant the size of Shipshaw in eighteen
months! A period of great prosperity immediately follows the Second World War with
the decade of the fifties and the arrival of the "baby boomers".
It soon became indispensable that all the provinces have an organization capable of
tackling even larger projects. Only Alberta will be the exception. The fifties saw the
construction of such infrastructures as the Bersimis Complex in Quebec, soon followed
by the Manicouagan and Outardes complexes, which will continue until the late eighties.
The James Bay Complex will follow immediately from the summer of 1972.
Newfoundland is no exception with the construction of the Churchill Complex while
Manitoba successfully develops the Nelson River (Kettle Sites, Limestone, Long Spruce).
In British Columbia, the impressive complexes of the Columbia River (12 sites including
Revelstoke and Mica dams) and Peace River (Bennett and Peace Canyon dams) gives a
deep orientation to the economic future of the province. Meanwhile, Ontario, short on
rivers suitable for hydropower development, must turn to nuclear power. In 1968, New
Brunswick commissioned the Mataquac project, its only major site.
The nineties seem to mark the end or, at least, a severe slowing down in hydroelectric
development. In Quebec, they simply focus on completing the last remaining sites of the
large complexes, including the development of the Eastmain project and the Rupert
diversion on La Grande complex, the Toulnustouc plant on the Manicouagan, or the last
site of the Péribonka river. However, work is started on the lower North Shore with the
development of the Ste-Marguerite River.
Does the end of this century of hydropower that was the twentieth century really signal
the end of the development of the industry or is it rather a time of reflection for the next
step? If the growing environmental concern that we have seen since the seventies has
strongly questioned hydropower, we must admit that the industry has responded wisely
by working on correcting its excesses and developing its benefits. The scope of the
studies and the environmental knowledge developed by the hydropower industry over the
last thirty years is of a magnitude that few industries can claim.
Also, it was good that we learned how to use energy more efficiently. Moreover, it seems
that the nuclear industry has not fulfilled its promises as these supposedly so green quick
fixes that wind and solar power seemed to be did not turn out to be so green after all and
especially did not produce large enough energy.
Canada still has an enormous potential that we must develop as hydroelectric power
remains by far the cleanest source of energy, is the most sustainable and most renewable.
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We will also see that to achieve this, Canadians need to think on a continental, Canadawide level, far beyond any provincial vision, which until recently seemed sufficient.
5.1.2 Developed and Still Available Hydroelectric Power Potential
According to the Canadian Hydropower Association, the hydroelectric potential
theoretically available in Canada in 2007 is estimated at approximately 236,610 MW,
namely:
Yukon
Northwest Territories
Nunavut
British Columbia
Alberta
Saskatchewan
Manitoba
Ontario
Quebec
New Brunswick
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island
Newfoundland-Labrador
In Service
70 MW
25
0
Available
17,664 MW
11,524
4,307
33,495 MW
12,609 MW
33,137 MW
909
11,775
853
3,955
5,029
8,785
57,652 MW
8,350 MW
10,270 MW
37,459
44,100
923
614
404
8,499 (tidal)
0
3
6,796
8,540
73,437 MW 163,173 MW
Total 236,610 MW
Reference: Statistics Canada, 2007
Study on the hydroelectric potential of Canada, according to the Canadian Hydropower Association, 2007
Hydroelectric potential already developed
The 2007 table from the Canadian Hydropower Association presented above already
stated the operation of a number of power stations with a capacity of 73,437 MW, which
is changing day by day. Now, at the end of the year 2011, it would be more realistic to
consider that the already developed hydropower potential is of some 76, 000 MW.
Moreover, the 2007 data are already outdated given the multiple ongoing repairs
underway. For the sole province of Quebec, the addition of new power plants at Eastmain
, of the Upper St. Maurice two powerhouses and of Péribonka already adds more than
1,500 MW.
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(See at the end of the chapter an overview of major works in service in Canada as of early 2011).
Indeed, it should be noted that these data are changing almost daily while these
infrastructures are being repaired or built. Therefore, after thirty years of operation, it is
generally required to conduct a complete renovation of the turbine-alternator units; this is
an opportunity to increase the efficiency of the machines according to the evolution of
technical knowledge as well as to put additional output (surequipement) on the turbines.
The installed capacity of a plant can sometimes be increased by approximately 10%, at
each updating, which is very profitable.
We can appreciate the importance of this resource by considering that the operation of a
thermal power plant, using fuel oil, bunker or other, would require, for each MW of
power generated, the annual consumption of 2,500 tons of fuel and emit some 10,000
tonnes of greenhouse gases. Thus, the Canadian hydropower production prevents the
annual burning of some 125 million tons of fuel and the emission of some 500 million
tonnes of greenhouse gases. In 2010, the emission of greenhouse gases in Canada was
approximately 725 million tonnes, which stresses the importance of hydropower for the
environment.
Economically speaking, the same hydroelectric production avoids the purchase of these
125 million tons of fuel, or some 912 million barrels (2.5 million barrels per day) of oil.
Assuming a cost of $125 per barrel and a transportation cost of $50 per tonne, the annual
hydroelectric production of Canada would have a replacement value, in fuel only, of over
$120 billion and this for an energy that is neither clean, nor renewable nor sustainable!
Based on this approach, hydroelectricity remains one of the most profitable and most
desirable energy sources.
Note: We assume here that a ton of oil has 7.3 barrels, though this factor may vary up to 9 barrels in some
cases.
5.1.3 Differences Between Real and Theoretical Potential
The purpose of this study is not to further detail the estimate of the theoretically
estimated potential. However, it is necessary to take into account the various aspects that
influence this estimate of this energy potential till available. From the estimated available
potential, first must be removed the sites that may prove unacceptable for environmental
reasons; for example to save wetlands that are particularly rich from a biological
standpoint or to protect wildlife and/or populated habitats.
This potential will also be revised downward to exclude any sites that may be
unprofitable because of particular technical constraints. This may include both geological
conditions in the foundation as well as the availability of backfill.
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The hydrological and hydraulic conditions, particularly with regards to winter flow
conditions, such as excessive generation of frazil ice by rapids located in the immediate
headbay, are crucial. Flow conditions also depend heavily on regional physical
characteristics. Thus, the vast marshes and wetlands of northern Ontario would explain
why the river flows are up to four times lower than they are in Quebec, in proportion to
the size of the watershed, as if the waters were stagnant. Finally, the possibility of
building reservoirs to regulate flows and / or move the energy production in time, will
decide as to the interest of developing some rivers.
The lack of access to the hydroelectric sites and its distance from the transmission
network will decide on the profitability of the projects and/or when they will be executed
in the future. The acceptability of the project remains to be seen for the affected
populations and all the political and economic interests at stake must also be considered.
Thus, in the ongoing negotiations for the division of the Arctic continent between states,
to "install" a plant as soon as possible becomes a way to "mark our territory".
The only way to really know the true hydropower potential still available is to conduct at
least the first conceptual design study of the sites that seem the most interesting, river by
river, site by site. Each of the provincial hydro companies should have a team of
professionals capable of performing these initial site surveys to develop a kind of catalog
of projects for the purposes of the strategic management of the company. That is how for
decades, Hydro-Québec has gradually formed a "catalog of hundreds of projects," the
most promising moving constantly to more advanced stages of engineering.
Again, the constantly changing energy costs, construction costs, technology, distribution
system and road network make these studies somehow “perishable”, to the point of
having to update them regularly, at least for the most promising sites. Thus, the increased
cost of labor and the efficiency of earth-moving equipment during the 1960s and 1970s
steered engineering toward embankment dams rather than concrete dams.
As with other energy systems, hydroelectricity requires some form of prospecting, an
exploration made inviting by the fact that we know at the onset that the energy source is
present. The exercise aims to define profitability. It is the same for a hydroelectric
company as it is for an oil company: no exploration, no future!
5.1.4 Potential of Immediate Projects Under Study
A brief inventory of the most studied hydroelectric projects to date indicates a very
impressive hydroelectric potential of a confirmed power in the range of 28,000 to
32,000 MW and this, in all the provinces that would eventually be served by the future
Canada-wide transmission network presented in Chapter 11, which stops at the moment
and for the purposes of the study in Alberta. Such power is somewhat equivalent to the
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production of electricity from the current thermal power of about 29,700 MW, which
should be replaced to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases in the order of 175 million
tons annually, more than 23% of Canadian emissions that were officially of 734 million
tonnes in 2010. This estimate is based, of course, on the factor of 10 000 tonnes of
greenhouse gases emitted per MW produced on an annual basis then corrected for a
factor of 66% of production time.
A brief statement of the potential projects being studied or pending allows us to
appreciate the immediately available potential.
Manitoba
Potential Projects (4,915 MW)
Burntwood River, 3 sites 680 MW Nelson River
Upper Churchill 2 sites 245 MW Lower Churchill
6 sites 3,990 MW
(to be studied)
Quebec
Potential Projects (approximately 19,000 MW)
Lower North Shore 4,000 MW (Romaine, Petit-Mécatina and others)
Secondary Potential 5,000 MW (40 to 50 plants of 50 to 100 MW)
James Bay 5,000 MW (Great Whale and secondary potential)
Nottaway Broadback 5,200 MW (excluding the Rupert which is diverted)
St. Lawrence 1,000 MW (Montreal, Beauharnois, others)
Newfoundland (Labrador) (5,000 MW)
Lower Churchill
Nova Scotia
5,000 MW
(Gull Island, Muskrat Falls, secondary sites)
(6,700 MW)
Tidal, potential, (40% of FU?)
Comberland Basin 1,400 MW
Cobequid Bay 5,300 MW
In addition, by eventually reaching the Athabasca River region, the network would be in
the range of several major rivers in the Yukon, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, at
a distance of about 300 to 500 km from these significant rivers that flow to the north
and/or towards the Hudson Bay, with a theoretical potential of some 20,000 MW. This
area should be studied immediately. However, these projects suffer because they are
located in jurisdictions where there is no such energy needs and where some local
authorities have very few resources to deal with such studies.
The North West government, lately, made a brief study of the MacKenzie River in its
territory, just sufficient to learn that a power of about 11 000 MW could be installed on
just two sites (Wigley and Fort Simpson). However, to go farther in such a study you
have to consider all the drainage basin involved, in this case as far as the south of Alberta
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and Saskatchewan to answer such question like the volume of the floods and the
hydraulic reserve required to meet the pattern of management. (May we have a little
dream for a few seconds, about the possibility to exploit the oilsands, so near, without
having to burn a barrel to extract the three others, all that without polluting emissions ?)
Analysis of the provincial parks of production equipment by sector makes it possible to
highlight the large proportion of energy produced from heat, gas, coal or oil, in the order
of 28% or 30,000 MW. It therefore seems quite justified to proceed as soon as possible to
the replacement of this thermal energy production by this clean and sustainable
hydropower. In addition, further study of these facilities would show that more than half
have been operating for over thirty years, that they are often inefficient, polluting and, at
the end of their useful life.
Province
Production Equipment (end of 2010)
Thermal Total
Newfoundland Labrador
856 MW 2,089 MW (excluding Churchill)
Nova Scotia
1,772
2,368
New Brunswick
2,769*
4,533
Quebec
1,377*
42,629 (including Churchill Falls)
Ontario
6,327*
19,000 approximately
Manitoba
458
5,475
Saskatchewan
2,484
3,509
Alberta
12,626
13,535 (excluded from the study)
British Columbia
1,043
12,000 approximately
29,712 MW 105,000 MW approximately
28.3 %
* Excluding nuclear
This approach assumes that by the implementation of the Canada-wide network, the
growth will have justified the implementation of the specified hydropower projects,
which is a very conservative approach. On the other hand, the latest and most efficient
thermal plants would be retained to meet the needs at periods of peak demand and / or to
ensure the long-term expansion of the provincial networks.
5.1.5 Hydropower: Complementary technologies
This chapter would not be complete without mentioning some of the technologies being
developed. These hydroelectric "sub-industries" include marine turbines, pumping
stations, tidal plants and plants using "wave energy" (houlomotrices ?).
Marine turbines (hydroliennes) power plants are built around large turbines, submerged
in ocean currents or streams. There have been ongoing trials for over four decades. An
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advanced development program is underway in the Montreal area where the 250 kW
prototype set up by the firm RSW in the early summer 2010 costs $ 20 million 80
millions/MW ?). The interest lies in the fact there is no civil works, not even a dam.
There is also some study about a project of some ten of these turbine that would be
submerged in the St-Clair River, downstream of the city of Sarnia.
Pumping stations are arranged similarly to classic hydropower plants. They differ
because the forebay, with no natural water supply incomings, is filled using the
generating units as pumps, outside of peak periods. These plants are only used to move
some power outside of peak periods, with some loss of energy, about 10 %. The study of
each project must compare the cost of this peak energy to that of other types of plants
such as gas turbines.
There needs to be a very important network to justify the creation of such equipment. In
the event of a Canada-wide network, such a project could prove to be interesting. The site
most likely for such a project would be Paugan, located about fifty miles north of Ottawa.
The preliminary study was carried out by Hydro-Québec in the late seventies. A power of
4,000 MW could be installed in the very center of the network, just located between
Ontario and Quebec provinces.
The tidal power plants use the rising tide to fill their tank or forebay. The “de la Rance”
plant in France has been the prototype since the early seventies, using tidal currents in
both directions by means of a bulb type generating unit such as that used for low heads.
The situation and the stakes are much higher in Canada where the Bay of Fundy, between
Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, would make use of the highest tides in the world, with
a height of 19.26 meters (63 feet), for an installed capacity of over 5,300 MW. Studies on
the project have spanned over three decades with a first project of 20 MW successfully
implemented in Annapolis.
Moreover, the tide of Ungava Bay is the second highest in the world with a maximum
height of 16.3 meters or 53 feet. In the important “Northern Plan” put forward by the
Government of Quebec since 2010, some of the most important iron mines in the world
are located just a few hundred miles from the Ungava Bay, which may well trigger the
development.
Finally, the wave power plant is designed to recover wave energy. The technology is in
its infancy. There are prototypes that make it possible for the waves to fill a tank whose
outlet is equipped with a turbine. Another alternative is to use vertical displacement of
floats. A third option derives its energy from the hydraulic mechanism operated by the
movement between long floating elements. To date, there are no marketable applications
in sight.
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5.1.6 Dawn of a New White Gold Rush ?
Compared with oil which is called "black gold", the hydroelectric potential is often called
"white gold". Given the potential estimated in section 5.1.4, given the environmental
concerns related to greenhouse gases, given the unfulfilled promises of the nuclear and
wind industry, it is quite possible that all of Canada is at the dawn of a new "rush" for this
white gold.
The significant progress made between 1990-2010 in economics and energy efficiency
have helped in some way to slow the pace of development but the power needs of the
society can only manifest itself again. Know-how acquired in the fields of environment
protection and transportation network development should make it possible to overcome
these barriers and open new areas of Canada with the operation of hydropower, as was
done long time ago with Niagara Falls, Mauricie and James Bay.
All in all, one cannot rely much on other energy resources that are as abundant, clean,
renewable and sustainable. The available theoretical potential is estimated at 163,000
MW, a development phases of the next two or three decades covering some 40 to 50,000
MW seems quite realistic, which would already be equivalent to an endless daily
production of 2.5 million barrels of oil!
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5.2 Hydropower: Environment and Society
5.2.1 Environment and Society
5.2.2 Versatility of the Projects
5.2.3 Climate Changes
5.2.4 Exporting Water?
5.2.5 Canada-wide Context
5.2.1 Environment and Society
During the seventies, public opinion gradually mobilized, rightly so, to protect the
environment, objecting more systematically against human intervention of any kind,
fearing in particular that we could ignore some still undetermined effects. The completion
of the hydroelectric developments, which were often important development, were quick
to attract more attention.
It is in this context that the La Grande complex was built, a project the size of a country,
or 350,000 square kilometers. To such a scale, about environment, everything was
practically invented. The scope of the environmental impact assessments made it, for
three decades, the worldwide research laboratory of choice. The final environmental
report, "Summary of the environmental knowledge in the North from 1970 to 2000" was
a world class turning point in environmental knowledge.
This report is also a manual on development or protection measures to be implemented.
Unfortunately, it spends too little time on the fact that a large number of the studies were
conducted on issues that in fact never materialized in reality; they were simply
apprehensions. From then on, what is remembered is that hydroelectricity can be done
while respecting the environment and the local communities involved.
In fact, at least for the integration of environmental knowledge in the development of
hydroelectricity, with respect to the Canadian context, there are now "catalogs or
checklists" of interventions, development measures, audits, corrective works, analysis,
procedures and safeguards put in place.
Approval Process and Consultation
The approval process for major projects, both at the federal and provincial level, have the
advantage, from now on, of being well established. First a list of specific concerns to be
studied is established. Moreover, the negotiation process with local communities can now
rely too on established practices. The model agreements negotiated, namely in Quebec,
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can be used as references, especially with regard to recognition of the rights of these
communities and the very generous conventions that are applied.
Therefore, it is now possible to make all of these steps simultaneously with the studies,
which would significantly reduce delays in project implementation.
5.2.2 Versatility of the Projects
Region Infrastructures
Hydroelectric projects overlap on many other complementary aspects, not only to power
generation. Hydroelectric projects allows, namely, to create a road network and to open
entire new regions. They can also open these regions to other activities such as logging or
mining. This type of project gives an area new transportation infrastructure, including
airport and seaport. Finally, the infrastructure on the construction site, such as family
villages with schools, clinics, fire and safety services, can be designed at the outset so as
to remain permanent. The exploitation of these projects then allows sustainable
employment for the long term.
Reservoirs and Natural Environments
Obviously, the implementation of a major project almost always involves the creation of
a reservoir. This reservoir requires the redevelopment of the natural environment but not
at all its destruction. Initially, this reservoir will be designed based on an enhancement of
the environment, possibly with interventions such as the development of spawning
grounds and wetlands, outdoor amenities such as beaches, campgrounds, boat launching ,
points of obsevation, etc.. Recovery of wood prior to watering will be an important and
often very expensive measure that could delay the implementation of the project.
Yet, long before these measures were methodically applied, reservoirs and other
hydroelectric developments were successfully completed. The Gouin, Baskatong, Kipawa
and Lac Taureau reservoirs in Quebec are all among the busiest fishing grounds in the
province, if not in Canada. Each of these reservoirs is now a source of livelihood for
dozens of outfitting operations. The reach immediately downstream of the Carillon plant,
near Montreal is also one of the busiest fishing sites and sustains several outfitters, right
there, on the outskirts of Montreal. It must be said that the largest Hydro-Ontario plant
uses the potential of the Niagara Falls, which does not prevent this site from being one of
the most important tourist sites in Canada.
Flood Control
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The construction of a reservoir will make it possible to set aside the surplus floods of the
spring and fall, which will often prevent significant damage throughout the basin of the
river. In Canada, namely in Quebec, the volume of water from the spring flood can often
account for 50% of annual inputs of the river, making it possible to accumulate a large
reserve without adversely altering the flow conditions of the river for the next ten
months. In addition, such a reserve allows in times of need to ensure a minimum flow to
provide drinking water or avoid catastrophic periods of low water for the environment.
Also, the large proportion of flood waters will often make it possible to derive a
substantial portion of water to another basin without significant impact on the river
environment. Exploiting the potential of two or more rivers on only one reduces the
impact on the environment.
In some cases, the operation of the reservoirs will also ensure minimum navigation
conditions, which has become indispensable in particular for the operation of the St.
Lawrence Seaway.
5.2.3 Climate Change
It seems that each of Canada's watersheds, and of the world, begins to suffer in its own
way the effects of climate change. More and more, these changes will affect how the
hydroelectric structures in place can be used and may, sometimes, as shown here, change
the functions of these structures, especially to mitigate or control greater flood or drought
periods. This will likely be the same with the need to manage the water supply of the
populations in some regions, in the Great Lakes and even in Western Canada, where the
melting of glaciers suggests a significant reduction of water inputs in the near future.
In a case particularly important for Canada, the experts predict a gradual drying of the
Great Lakes region by some 20 to 30%, which corresponds to a decrease in flow rates of
around 1,000 to 1,500 cubic meters per second in front of the City of Sarnia, outlet of
Lake Huron. Already, the level of lakes Michigan and Huron are lower by about two feet
or 60 centimeters, which, considering the area of 114,000 square kilometers of these two
lakes, is a water volume of about 68.4 cubic km, equivalent to almost six months of flow
for the St. Clair River. This reduction in flows will obviously affect the productivity of
the power plants of the St. Lawrence river at Niagara, Cornwall and Beauharnois.
Conversely, the water that evaporates from the Great Lakes due to climate change would
fall on Quebec, adding some 15 % to the flow of the Outaouais River (300 MCS). The
technical description of the two complexes that may eventually be built to compensate
and / or take advantage of this situation can be found in 5.3.3.
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The first aims to complete the development of the St. Lawrence basin with four or five
new control infrastructures to have about ten successive reservoirs where the
management of water levels would be no longer dependent on the released flows.
Anyway, the volume of water required for these releases will be less and less available.
To the already controlled basins of Lake Superior, Lake Erie, Lake Ontario and Lake St.
François, new control dams would be added in Sarnia to control lakes Michigan and
Huron, at the Lachine Rapids to control the Lake St. Louis. Two last more dams would
have to be added in Sorel and Portneuf to control the downstream part of the St.
Lawrence River, in a section of about 300 km from Montreal to Quebec. Altogether it
would costs about $ 5 billion, a sum largely justified by the environmental safety taken
for the protection of 18,000 km of shoreline and at least 1 000 square kilometers of
important wetlands.
The second project, "Water from the North", involves diverting towards the St. Lawrence
River an average flow of 800 cubic meters per second by intercepting two major rivers at
Matagami. These waters are pumped from 53 meters along the Bell River, where they are
then used all along the Outaouais River, in 13 existing power plants, for a net energy gain
of 14.6 TWh and a peak power of 2,950 MW, to the limits of the Province of Ontario. At
a cost of $ 14 billion in 2010, we must subtract around 60 % of this cost for upgrading the
required infrastructures in all case. While protecting the watershed of the James Bay from
flash floods, the project supplies the St. Lawrence basin to prevent the waters from
becoming too stagnant due to the reduction of inputs.
Similar studies should already be considered in regard to the long-term challenge in
Western Canada in front of the melting of glaciers.
Freshwater and Sea Levels
Now, as a complementary function, the operation of hydroelectric facilities may have to
increasingly take into account the water needs of the population, especially regarding the
Great Lakes region. The principles of water management that would become applicable
in articulating the St. Lawrence basin into ten successive reservoirs may need to be
applied elsewhere where we anticipate a drying effect due to climate change, especially
in the plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan.
In Egypt, the work underway aims to create a second valley to the Nile and to divert a
significant portion of the contributions to supply freshwater to a canal along the coast of
Gaza. In China, a diversion system of 800 km in length is to feed a dry region. In Russia,
they are considering the possibility of diverting the basin upstream of some rivers leading
to the Arctic Ocean water toward the almost dry Aral sea. Many other examples also
show how freshwater is precious.
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It could also be true for some rivers of the northern Prairies that could potentially be
diverted to the southern plains with profit.
Could it be that the best way not to run out of freshwater is to take advantage of it
rather than let it go into the sea, especially now when there are concerns regarding
the enhancement of the oceans?
5.2.4 Exporting Water?
This question comes up periodically. In fact, with the anticipated effects of drying-up due
to climate change, both in the Great Lakes and the Prairies, the answer seems to be not to
export. However, by itself, Quebec discharges 40,000 cubic meters of water per second
into the sea, enough to supply all of humanity.
Also, how can we and, more importantly, how dare we prohibit the export of water faced
with a population in need, for example, in the Great Lakes? Since "water is life," as
environmentalists are constantly repeating, what right do we have to refuse to share with
others? How can we explain their steadfast opposition to exporting water?
The answer lies in the projects presented in Section 5.3. Yet another mission for the
hydropower industry. The reconfiguration of the St. Lawrence River into ten consecutive
basins, making the management of flows independent of the management of the water
levels alone can solve these problems of drinking water availability for the Great Lakes
area..
5.2.5 Canada-wide Context
Because of shared jurisdictions between the governments of Canada and the provinces,
an overview sometimes seems to be missing in the long-term planning of the energy
market in Canada. Currently, there are more links between provincial networks and the
United States than between the provinces of Canada.
If the market retail price of energy appears to be higher in the United States, the
wholesale market is more volatile with the uncontrolled exploitation of shale gas and
American claims that hydropower is not a clean energy (negotiations needed?).
However, during the most recent events regarding only the province of Ontario, we must
take into account the decommissioning of coal plants and some nuclear power plants that
have already reached the end of their useful life, like BRUCE. The energy costs are
expected to increase rapidly. The few and very expensive programs launched at a high
price at the beginning of 2011 on the wind and solar industries, up to 80 cents for solar,
were immediately recalled to exorbitant costs and all this, while Quebec is trying to get a
15
fair price of between 6 to 8 cents in the U.S. market for the production of the “La
Romaine complex” under construction.
Market Prices - Electricity
Summer 2011
Montreal 6.88 Cts/kWh
Winnipeg 7.08
Vancouver 7.79
Edmonton 9.27
Calgary 10.65
Ottawa
11.00
Boston
16.82
New York 22.82
Moncton 11.66
Toronto 11.82
Halifax 12.89
Regina
13.15
St-John’s 10.73
Charlottetown 16.15
Chicago 10.93
There is definitely a lack of vision at the Canadian and provincial government levels.
Thoughtful planning for the whole country would boost hydropower at a rate comparable
to that of the 70s and 80s. We can consider such an opportunity as an example of the “
“federal perequation program” ... where there would be no losers.
16
5.3 Potential Major Projects
5.3.1 Inventory of the Potential Projects (Reminder)
5.3.2. Canada-wide Essential Prerequisite
5.3.3 Major Potential Hydroelectricity Projects
Lower Churchill
Tidal Energy
St. Lawrence Basin and “Water from the North” scheme
James Bay
Western Canada
5.3.1 Inventory of the Potential (reminder)
A brief survey of the potential projects already under consideration or pending makes it
possible to appreciate the immediately available potential, approximately 30,000 MW
excluding 5,000 MW of tidal power. A brief overview of these opportunities and the
characteristics of each province must now be conducted.
Manitoba,
Potential Projects (4,915 MW)
Burntwood River
Nelson River
Quebec
680 MW
3,990 MW
Potential Projects
Lower North Shore
Secondary Potential
James Bay
Nottaway Broadback
St. Lawrence
Lower Churchill
Nova Scotia
(Romaine, Petit-Mécatina and others)
(50 plants ranging from 50 to 150 MW)
(Gr. Baleine and secondary potential)
(excluding the Rupert, now diverted)
(Montreal, Beauharnois, others)
(5,000 MW)
4,000 MW
(6,700 MW)
Comberland Bassin
Cobequid Bay
(approximately 19,000 MW)
4,000 MW
5,000 MW
5,000 MW
5,200 MW
1,000 MW
Newfoundland (Labrador)
3 sites
6 sites
(Gull Island, Muskrat Fall, secondary sites)
tidal energy, potential (40% of F.U.?)
1 400 MW
5 300 MW
With regard to projects located in Manitoba, an analysis that would cover all major
drainage basins of the most important rivers of the plains should be carried out
beforehand so as not to overlook other even more interesting opportunities. Each of these
options for the development of hydroelectric plants will be discussed later in this
document. However, before implementing these projects that are often far removed from
the needs expressed, there is a prerequisite: completion of a Canada-wide transmission
network.
17
5.3.2 Canada-wide, Essential Prerequisite
In order to undertake the construction of a new "generation" of hydroelectric projects
across Canada, projects that are always more and more scattered and further away from
populated areas, it is necessary to define a transmission strategy. Chapter 11 of the
present volume will present a Canada-wide high-voltage transmission network.
The strategy chosen, to make this Canada-wide transmission network profitable, is to aim
each power lines for three objectives simultaneously. These objectives are first to link
these new projects to areas of consumption, then connect together the existing provincial
networks and finally, to use the opportunity to replace or move the expensive and
polluting power plants into a role as a reserve. The whole strategy could be, in large part,
funded by the Government of Canada who could simply reinvest the cash from the taxes
collected on these projects.
Over two decades, we would add approximately 15,000 kilometers of high voltage lines
to the 11,400 km that Hydro-Quebec is already operating at a cost of approximately $ 22
billion in 2010, excluding operating stations. Still, more than 60 % of this power grid
would be located in Quebec.
(A summary of the engineering study is presented at the end of this chapter)
5.3.3 Major Potential Hydroelectricity Projects
Lower Churchill
Tidal Energy
St. Lawrence Basin and North Water
James Bay
Western Canada
The 5 428 MW Churchill Falls powerhouse is already in place since the beginning of the
seventies. These two new major projects of Gull Island (1,711 MW at 76% F U) and
Muskrat Falls (824 MW at 74% F U) have been known and sketched since the sixties.
What is not known, is whether there is a possibility to add to this 7,760 MW complex
additional projects such as diversions from the basin upstream of the Georges River or a
275 W plant to the Lobstick flood-control structure, to ultimately bring the power of this
complex to some 8 500 MW at an approximately 75% load factor.
With the Quebec government’s “North Plan” (Plan Nord), three other mining complexes
will soon be added 100 to 150 km north of the town of Schefferville. In addition, within
the North Plan, the planned mining development will then only be approximately 200 km
from the Ungava Bay, very conducive to development of several tidal power plants. In
18
addition, all development along the Georges River would also be suitable for the
hydroelectric development of this large river.
Lower Churchill
Also, the development of mines north of Schefferville assumes, according to the
promoter, the construction of a second railway to Sept-Iles, which could greatly facilitate
the implementation of power lines, tidal power and hydroelectric plants on the rivers of
the region, including this important Georges River.
Unfortunately, the implementation of the Lower Churchill complex requires building two
transmission lines of 1,300 km to reach areas of high consumption, which Quebec does
19
not see in a positive light, especially if it allows Newfoundland to compete with Quebec
in the U.S. market. The problem is also political. On the other hand, one of these lines
could rather directly serve Newfoundland and Nova Scotia.
(Writing this article, it was announced, on this morning of 2011-11-18, that the government of
Canada have just approved to guaranty the loans for this project of Muskrat Falls and this line to
Newfoundland and Nova Scotia)
Quebecers have never accepted that the Privy Council in London took Labrador away
from them in 1927, while Newfoundlanders bitterly regret the long-term agreement to
20
sell at a discount the production of Churchill Falls until 2041. On the one hand,
Quebecers could be consoled by the fact that the size of their province, limited to the St.
Lawrence until 1911, was then increased tenfold without even having to ask. On the other
hand, Newfoundland should realize that without this agreement, there would still be
nothing done while considering that possible further developments, with a power of some
3,500 MW is not a cheap consolation prize.
As for the transmission system, performed in a completely Canadian perspective, it
would be acceptable for Quebec. The only thing missing are political visionaries.
Tidal Energy
Since the seventies, the Province of Nova Scotia is juggling with the enormous potential
of 6,700 MW which is tidal power from the Bay of Fundy, where tides are the highest in
the world with a height of 63 feet or 19.25 meters. In the early eighties, a pilot project of
20 MW was implemented at Annapolis.
If the profitability of this project could be analyzed in the context of the Canadian market,
without distribution cost and considering the current and future cost of energy,
particularly in Ontario, it is quite possible that the implementation would begin in the
short or medium term.
However, the Ungava Bay, in turn, has the second highest tide in the world, 53 feet or
16.4 meters, and has a multitude of bays suitable for the installation of a tidal power
stations. It is quite possible that this region is even more favorable than the Bay of Fundy
with regards to the tidal energy possibility.
St. Lawrence Basin and “Water from the North” complex
Indirectly, the hydroelectric industry is involved in the profound changes underway in the
hydrology of the basin of the St. Lawrence River. Experts in climate change foresee a
reduced intake of about 20 to 30% in the Great Lakes, or 1,000 to 1,500 cubic meters per
second in Sarnia and, possibly up to 2,000 cubic meters per second at Cornwall. In
addition to reducing all energy production of the important plants in Niagara, Cornwall
and Beauharnois, this reduction in flows is likely to dry large sections of the St.
Lawrence River.
21
22
This, at least in its downstream portion of the riverbed, between the cities of Montreal
and Quebec, this reverbed is often shallow outside the dredged right-of-way of the
Seaway, which also acts somewhat as a drainage channel, which adds to the difficulties
of managing water levels. How can we protect the environmental quality of over 18,000
kilometers of shoreline often occupied and more than 1,000 square kilometers of very
rich wetlands? Until recently, water was released to increase the level but such releases
no longer seem possible, as water is less and less available.
A recently presented alternative proposes to complete the flood-control infrastructures in
such a way as to arrange the whole basin of the St. Lawrence river like a waterfall of
some ten reservoirs. The lakes and reservoirs already controlled are those of Lake
Superior, Lake Erie, Lake Ontario and Lake St. François. The infrastructures to be added
would be located in Sarnia for the management of lakes Michigan and Huron, in the
Lachine Rapids for the management of Lake St. Louis, possibly in downtown Montreal
for the Laprairie basin and in the cities of Sorel and Portneuf for the downstream portion
of the St. Lawrence.
Thus, the flow management would become independent of the level management. Better,
without significant impacts on the environment, we could then use part of the water
inputs to one day meet the drinking water needs of the population of the St. Lawrence
basin. Every flow of 100 cubic meters per second is indeed enough to allocate a daily
generous amount of 100 gallons per person to a population of 20 million people. The
project cost for these five infrastructures is estimated at about $ 5 billion.
“Water from the North” complex
However, to avoid creating large areas of standing water in the river, it would be
necessary to add new water supplies to the St. Lawrence River basin. The only alternative
identified to date to divert water to the St. Lawrence River basin, suggests intercepting
the major rivers of Bell and Waswanipi in the Matagami area and to pump it to a height
of 53 meters along the Bell river and into the Ottawa River basin. These new
contributions of 800 cubic meters per second would then be turbined on 300 meters of
head, in a dozen existing powerhouses and generate an energy surplus of 14.6 TWh and a
power of 2,950 MW, at the very border of Ontario.
The project takes the existing bed of the rivers and flows diverted while never exceeding
the natural flood flows of these rivers. The project cost is estimated at $ 14 billion in
2010, to which must be subtracted the investment required to bring the existing facilities
23
up to date with the most recent safety standards and allow them to deal with the major
floods caused by the effects of climate change.
Moreover, the project would still allow for the development of a residual potential of
about 1,800 MW on the Nottaway River in the north, in the James bay basin.
24
James Bay
The La Grande Complex is already putting the contributions from the Caniapiscau and
Eastmain rivers to good use, and more recently, the Rupert River was added. Other rivers
in the region have also been studied in the very detailed final design. Among these rivers
are the Great Whale River, and the Nottaway and Broadback rivers. Finally, the
implementation of a major complex in a region, like the La Grande Complex, still has the
effect of generating several complementary projects by bringing in the region a network
of energy transmission and road network.
South of the La Grande complex, it is still possible to achieve what remains of the
Nottaway Broadback Rupert complex project. Thus the two rivers, Nottaway and
Broadback could allow for the installation of a dozen plants with a total capacity of
around 3,200 MW. However, it is considered that a choice must be made between this
project and the proposed "Water from the North” scheme because they use the same
water supply. This Nottaway Broadback complex project would have much more impact
on the environment and would be much more expensive to produce and all that, without
solving the problem of the drying-up taking place in the St. Lawrence basin.
North of the La Grande Complex, there could be another hydroelectric complex project
on the Great Whale River, whose very advanced studies were halted in 1995. This project
remains very interesting, with an installed capacity of 2,900 MW. Its layout should be
revised to reduce the environmental impacts, including among other things the extent of
the flooded areas in the proposed area of the Bienville Reservoir.
Finally, the completion of the La Grande complex has made this area accessible and
connected it to a network. More than a dozen of smaller sites therefore became
interesting. To this end, we note the sites of the upstream part of the La Grande River and
the Eastmain River and of several tributaries. The downstream part to the diversion of the
Rupert River still offers a potential of 500 MW that could easily be converted. On the
whole there could still be a secondary potential for the development of some 3,000 MW.
25
Western Canada
Western Canada, which according to estimates by the Canadian Hydropower Association
has a vast theoretical potential of 91,000 MW, poses a major difficulty in that the
important watersheds, including those of the Mackenzie River, Churchill and Thelon
rivers, often cover all or several of the prairie provinces. The implications of each project
on other projects of the same complex, including reservoir volumes, flow rates,
equipment and chosen levels of water control can only result from a comprehensive
global study of theses complex. Even better, a study of the topography to suggest possible
diversions from one basin to another and even partial diversion from the Arctic basin to
the Hudson Bay watershed, which would limit the quantities of "hot water" discharged
northward, therefore to alleviate some of the warming.
The size of the first data from the project are promising. The average flow at the mouth of
the MacKenzie is 9,700 cubic meters per second, more than the river St. Lawrence in
Montreal. The MacKenzie river has a drainage basin of 1,805,200 sq. km. There are
26
several great lakes like the Great Slave Lake (28,528 sq. km) and the Great Bear Lake
(31,328 sq. km) which could easely be used as reservoirs.
27
Do we need to emphasize that in addition, the study of these large complexes would not
only consider the power generation but would also aim to offset the effects of drying-up
of the prairies due to climate change, including melting glaciers that currently feed this
river system in a significant proportion. Exceptional floods as experienced in 2011 by
Manitobans could also be managed to some extent.
These projects sometimes go beyond five jurisdictions. How do we achieve such an
implementation? An initial study would be required to outline the possible alternatives
for the complexes as also needed to raise public interest. An initiative is to be taken
somewhere by somebody. In principle, it should report to the Government of Canada but
in practice, nothing could be better than initiating a "think tank".
Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction…
Here it seems appropriate to remind a story. In Quebec, in the second half of the sixties,
while building Manic-Outardes, Hydro-Québec focused its studies on the Nottaway,
Broadback and Rupert rivers even if they were lacking falls and had huge swampy areas.
These huge rivers had the sole advantage of being located immediately north of the
Abitibi. Two men, Messrs. Rousseau and Warren, then took personal initiative to outline
in their own way what would become the La Grande complex, where "there were both
bedrock, important vertical drops, and not just high flow rates. "
Having the ear of Prime Minister Robert Bourassa, the two projects were put in
competition, with the result we now know. And just to think that these peoples are not
known to the public despite the influence they had on the future of Quebec!
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5.4 Recommendations
5.4.1A Canada-wide Transmission Network
5.4.2 Alberta: the necessity of a provincial water and power authority
5.4.3 Inventory of the hydroelectricity potential of Canada
5.4.1 The development of a national energy strategy has become essential
This Canada-wide transmission network is essential to initiate the creation of this new
generation of large hydroelectric complexes located far from major consumption centers,
especially in the Northwest Territories, Yukon and Labrador. This network is also
essential to link the provincial networks among themselves and to replace the existing
expensive and polluting power plants. The profitability of the project is provided by the
simultaneous advantages associated with these three important goals.
5.4.2 Alberta: the necessity of a provincial water and power authority
Alberta is the only province not to have set up a state enterprise. Such an enterprise is
indispensable to carry out a strategic planning for the medium and long term for all of its
energy infrastructures, particularly in order to develop its hydropower potential and
implement a strategic distribution network.
This government owned corporation, who may or may not integrate the multiple existing
companies as shareholders or otherwise, would have the aim of having an entity capable
of carrying out major desirable improvements to meet the energy needs of the population
of Alberta. Its intervention, as a representative of Alberta, would be essential to achieve
such development of large hydroelectric complexes in Western Canada covering several
provinces and territories.
5.4.3 Inventory of the hydroelectricity potential of Canada
It is of vital and strategic importance that each of the provincial energy companies
continues to expand the inventory of its potential, from its list of projects. Incentives such
as sponsorship of engineering studies and mapping could be taken in this direction to the
federal level, particularly for provincial jurisdictions that do not have the necessary
resources.
Indeed, an important component of this inventory deals with topography and hydrometric
surveys in Western Canada and the Northwest Territories, Yukon and Nunavut. Ideally,
the Canadian government should tackle the task, through the Ministry of Natural
Resources, to develop a scale mapping of 1:20.000 as Quebec has done. The existing
mapping at a scale of 1:50.000 from this ministry is not enough these days, for economic
29
development and environmental studies projects. Obviously, these data will then be made
readily available.
(A very effective way of supporting the economic, social and environmental development
of developing countries would be to let them carry out their own mapping, which is the
basis for all subsequent studies. Canadian technology in this area is also one of the best
in the world because of our past achievements. This is a great way to instigate the
development of these countries while spending the money in Canada.)
5.5 References
Canadian Academy of Engineering: Report of the Canada Power Grid Task Force
Canadian Hydroelectricity Association:Hydroelectricity in Canada, Past, Present and
Future
Bowman Centre for Technology Commercialization, University of Western Ontario
Canada: Winning as an energy superpower
Web Sites:
Hydro-Québec,
B C Hydro
Nova Scotia Hydro
Manitoba Hydro
Saskatchewan Hydro
OPG Ontario Power Generation
Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro
New Brunswick Hydro
Ministry of Natural Resources
Department of Natural Resources
30
APPENDIX A
Hydroelectric Powerhouses in Operation in Canada
(main installations, at the beginning of 2011)
British Columbia (approximately 11,330 MW, 43 to 54 TWh)
Hydroelectricity – approximately 10,000 MW
Lower Mainland Network (10 plants) (1,065 MW)
Bridge River 460 MW Buntzen 72 MW Cheakmus 158 MW
Stave Falls
91 MW Ruskin 105 MW Wahleach 64 MW
Columbia Network (12 plants)
Including Revelstoke with 2,416 MW and Mica with 1,740 MW (2,805 MW projected)
Peace River Network (2 plants) 3,424 MW
Bennett Dam 2,730 MW (GR Shrum) (+177 MW projected) and Peace Canyon 694 MW
Vancouver Island Network (7 plants)
Including Strathcona with 65 MW, Ladore with 47 MW and John Hart with 126 MW
Alberta
Alberta is the only province without a government corporation. The entire equipment fleet
includes 109 thermal plants at the end of 2010, for an installed capacity of 13,535 MW. A
theoretical hydroelectricity potential of some 11,000 is still planned.
Saskatchewan (3,509 MW)
Hydroelectricity (853 MW)
Coteau Creek 186 MW Nipawin 255 MW
Island Falls 101 MW Crume
92 MW
E B Campbell 288 MW
Athabasca System 23 MW (3 plants)
Manitoba (5,475 MW, 35.3 TWh)
16 hydroelectric plants
Winnipeg River
Great Falls 131 MW
Seven Sisters 165 MW
Pine Falls
89 MW
Pointe du Bois 78 MW
Nelson River
Jenpeg
132 MW
Kelsey
250 MW
Kettle
1,220 MW
Limestone 1,340 MW
Long spruce 1,010 MW
Grand Rapids 479 MW Saskatchewan River
31
Ontario (19,000 MW, 88.6 TWh)
Hydroelectricity (6,790 MW with 66 plants for approximately 6,996 MW
Central Group
29 plants for 300 MW app
North-East Group
13
1,000 MW app.
North-West Group 11
680 MW
Ottawa St. Law. Gr. 10
2,576 MW
Niagara Group
4
2,439 MW (including Sir Adam Beck No. 1 with 498
MW and No. 2 with 1,499 MW + 245 MW gain with the new power tunnel)
Quebec 42,629 MW, approximately 185 TWh
Hydroelectric: 34,490 MW, 60 plants, excluding 5,428 MW from Churchill Falls
including
La Grande Complex with 17,295 MW
Manic-Outardes Complex with 7,958 MW
Bersimis Complex with 2,047 MW
St-Maurice Complex with 1,825 MW
Beauharnois with 1,911 MW
Note: these installed capacities are progressively over-equipped and optimized during major
rehabilitation of the facilities. To this equipment of Hydro-Québec must be added some
private facilities such as ALCAN, with an installed capacity of 2,576 MW.
New Brunswick
4,533 MW
Hydroelectric (934 MW) including
Mactaquac
672 MW
Beechwood 113 MW
Tobique
20 MW
Sisson
9 MW
Nepisiquit Falls 11 MW (private)
Nova Scotia
Grand Falls 66 MW
Tinker Dam 34.5 MW (private)
St-Georges Dam 15 MW (private)
2,368 MW (13 TWh)
Hydroelectric (380 MW)
33 plants for a total of 360 MW and Annapolis, 20 MW, tidal power
Prince Edward Island none
Newfoundland
7,289 MW
Hydroelectric (6,433 MW) including
Churchill Falls 5,428 MW Baie d’Espoir 604 MW
Granite
40 MW Hinds Lake
75 MW
Upper Salmon
84 MW Star Lake
18.4 MW
Cat Arm
127 MW
Paradise River
8 MW
Private plants (2) 66 M
32