Political Science Scope
and Methods
Observation, Measurement, and
Political Implications II
Finishing up…
This week: Measurement, part 2
Concerns
Interviews
Verbal Reports of Decision-making
Verbal Reports of Behavior
Examples
Butterfly Ballot
SATs
Your Projects
Interviews
Systematic Observation
Access
Data collection
Example: Fenno
Problems?
Verbal Reports: Descision-Making and Behaviors
Descision-Making
Nisbett and Wilson
Implications for research,
Reports of Behavior
Sensitive questions
Faulty memory
Solutions?
Example: Vote over-reporting
Example 1: Butterfly Ballot
Butterfly Ballot
 Ballot Confusion
4000
Too many votes for Buchanan?
2000
1000
PIN ELLAS
HILLSBOROUGH
BROWARD
DUVAL
PASCO
MARION
POLKBREVARD
ESCAMBIA
VOLUSIA ORANGE
SANTA
ROSASARASOTA
LEE
LAKE
LEON
CITRUS
MANATEE
OKALOOSA
ALACHUA
BAY
HERNANDO
STJOHNS
SEMINOLE
CLAY
CHARLOTTE
PUTNAM
OSCEOLA
COLLIER
ST RIVER
LUCIE
WALTON
SUMTER
SUWANNEE
MARTIN
INDIAN
JACKSON
HIGHLANDS
CALHOUN
WASHINGTON
COLUMBIA
NASSAU
FLAGLER
HOLMES
BAKER
GULF
LEVY
BRADFORD
WAKULLA
MONROE
OKEECHOBEE
LIBERTY
DE
GADSDEN
SOTO
FRANKLIN
DIXIE
GILCHRIST
HARDEE
JEFFERSON
MADISON
UNION
HAMILTON
TAYLOR
HENDRY
LAFAYETTE
GLADES
0
buchannan vote
3000
PALM BEACH
0
100000
200000
gore vote
DADE
300000
400000
4000
2000
1000
PINELLAS
HILLSBOROUGH
BROWARD
DUVAL
BREVARD
PASCO DADE
MARION
POLK
ESCAMBIA
ORANGE
VOLUSIA
SANTA
ROSA
LEE MANATEE
SARASOTA
LAKE
LEON
CITRUS
OKALOOSA
ALACHUA
BAY
HERNANDO
ST JOHNS
SEMINOLE
CLAY
CHARLOTTE
PUTNAM
OSCEOLA
ST
LUCIE
COLLIER
WALTON
SUMTER
SUWANNEE
MARTIN
INDIAN RIVER
JACKSON
HIGHLANDS
CALHOUN
WASHINGTON
NASSAU
COLUMBIA
FLAGLER
HOLMES
GULF
BAKER
LEVY
BRADFORD
WAKULLA
MONROE
OKEECHOBEE
LIBERTY
DE
GADSDEN
SOTO
FRANKLIN
DIXIE
JEFFERSON
MADISON
HARDEE
GILCHRIST
UNION
HAMILTON
TAYLOR
HENDRY
LAFAYETTE
GLADES
0
buchanan_votes
3000
PALM BEACH
0
100
200
300
reform_registered_voters
400
Strategy of Analysis
Simple votes vs. vote for Buchanan graph
Could be misleading
Palm Beach is a large county
Cases; limited to Florida
Vote for Buchanan small (<1%)
10000
8000
PIN ELLAS
HILLSBOROUGH
nader
4000
6000
BROWARD
PALM BEACH
DADE
0
2000
BREVARD
SARASOTA
ORANGE
LEE
PASCO
ALACHUA
DUVAL
MANATEE VOLUSIA
POLK
LEONSEMINOLE
MARION
ESCAMBIA
HERNANDO
CHARLOTTE
LAKE
COLLIER
CITRUS
ST
LUCIE
STJOHNS
MONROE
MARTIN
OKALOOSA
INDIAN
RIVER
BAY
OSCEOLA
SANTA
CLAY ROSA
FLAGLER
HIGHLANDS
PUTNAM
SUMTER
LEVY
WALTON
COLUMBIA
NASSAU
SUWANNEE
DE
SOTO
WAKULLA
GADSDEN
JACKSON
OKEECHOBEE
HENDRY
GILCHRIST
HOLMES
WASHINGTON
FRANKLIN
GULF
BRADFORD
DIXIE
JEFFERSON
HARDEE
TAYLOR
GLADES
MADISON
BAKER
HAMILTON
CALHOUN
LAFAYETTE
UNION
LIBERTY
0
200000
400000
vote
600000
400000
buchannan vote
0
DUVAL ORANGE
HILLSBOROUGH
PIN ELLAS
SANTA
CLAY
OKALOOSA
BAY
STJOHNS
CITRUS
CHARLOTTE
HERNANDO
LAKE
ESCAMBIA
MARION
ROSASARASOTA
ALACHUA
MANATEE
SEMINOLE
LEON
PASCO
LEE
POLKVOLUSIA
BREVARD
LAFAYETTE
LIBERTY
UNION
GLADES
DIXIE
GILCHRIST
HAMILTON
CALHOUN
FRANKLIN
HOLMES
BAKER
GULF
HARDEE
TAYLOR
WASHINGTON
BRADFORD
JEFFERSON
MADISON
DE
HENDRY
WAKULLA
SUWANNEE
OKEECHOBEE
LEVY
WALTON
JACKSON
COLUMBIA
NASSAU
GADSDEN
SUMTER
PUTNAM
FLAGLER
HIGHLANDS
MONROE
SOTO
INDIAN
MARTIN
OSCEOLA
COLLIER
ST
RIVER
LUCIE
0
100000
200000
gore vote
PALM BEACHDADE
300000
BROWARD
400000
Strategy of Analysis (continued)
 Look at all counties in the U.S.
Expected vote: Palm Beach is an outlier
 Are votes for Buchanan coming from Gore
voters?
Look to other counties; compare Palm Beach to
Broward and Miami-Dade
 Overvotes
Compare Gore/Buchannan votes to Gore/Bush
 Absentee Ballots
Natural experiment
SATs
 What do they measure?
Ability vs. aptitude
Questions of validity
 Berkeley study
 SAT preparation works: Kaplan
 Implications: University of Michigan Lawsuit
More Examples
Your Projects