2.4 Aggregate Demand (AD) and Aggregate Supply (AS) Analysis What is Aggregate Demand? What is Aggregate Supply? What is the difference between short-run and long-run? It is recommended to complete this topic after 2.5 to 2.8. 2.4 What you need to know That changes in the price level are represented by movements along the AD and AS curves Different factors that shift short-run AD and AS curves The difference between factors that shift short-run aggregate supply and long-run aggregate supply That economic growth is represented by an outward shift in long-run aggregate supply 2.4 You should be able to: Demonstrate how changes in the price level are represented on an AD/AS diagram Differentiate between the factors that might impact short-run aggregate supply from long-run aggregate supply Demonstrate economic growth in an economy using a long-run aggregate supply curve Use AD/AS diagrams to explain and analyse different macroeconomic problems and issues Macroeconomic Equilibrium You should now have an understanding of aggregate demand (AD) and aggregate supply (AS) We will now be putting these two concepts together to explain and analyse the economy in more detail Using AD/AS analysis is an important skill and part of the ‘economists toolkit’ that will help you to identify, explain and analyse economic problems To begin with, it is important to note that macroeconomic equilibrium occurs where AD = AS Short-Run Equilibrium Price Level SRAS Building diagrams: Axis? AD Curve? SRAS Curve? P AD Y Real National Output Shifts in AD and SRAS Recap You should have an understanding of the factors that shift AD and SRAS Aggregate Demand Any change in the components of AD Recall the AD formula: C + I + G + (X-M) Short-run Aggregate Supply Any change in the costs of production Which components of AD are aiding or hindering economic recovery? 1) Begin with the equilibrium position. Price Level Short-Run Shifts Example (1) 2) What will happen if there is an increase in consumption? 3) AD will shift to the right. 4) There will be an expansion along the SRAS curve resulting in a new equilibrium price level of P1 and output of Y1. SRAS P1 P AD1 AD Y Y1 Real National Output 1) Begin with the equilibrium position. Short-Run Shifts Example (2) 2) What will happen if there is an increase in the cost of raw materials used in the production process? Price Level SRAS1 3) SRAS will shift to the left. SRAS 4) There will be a contraction along the AD curve. There will be a new equilibrium price level of P1 and output of Y1. P1 P AD Y1 Y Real National Output For each of the following examples, identify the impact on an AD/SRAS and draw a new diagram to show the new equilibrium position. Scenario 1 The Government increase the rate of income tax 2 There is a rise in the national minimum wage 3 The Government injects £2bn into a new house building programme 4 The price of oil falls on global markets 5 There is a fall in the exchange rate Classical Long-Run Equilibrium Price Level Building diagrams: Axis? AD Curve? Classical LRAS Curve? LRAS P AD Y Real National Output Shifts in AD and Classical LRAS Recap You should have an understanding of the factors that shift AD and SRAS Aggregate Demand Any change in the components of AD Recall the AD formula: C + I + G + (X-M) Long-run Aggregate Supply Any change in the quantity, quality or productivity of factors of production 1) Begin with the equilibrium position. Price Level Long-Run Shifts Example (1) 2) What will happen if there is an increase in exports? LRAS P1 P AD1 AD Y 3) AD will shift to the right. 4) There will be an expansion along the LRAS curve resulting in a new equilibrium price level of P1. Crucially, real national output will remain at Y, because all factor resources have been employed and remain unchanged. Therefore, any increase in AD will only cause inflation. Real National Output 1) Begin with the equilibrium position. Price Level Long-Run Shifts Example (2) 2) What will happen if there is a discovery of new primary raw materials? LRAS LRAS1 P P1 AD Y Y1 3) LRAS will shift to the right. 4) There will be an expansion along the AD curve resulting in a new equilibrium price level of P1. This time, real national output increases to Y1 because there has been an increase in the quantity of factor resources. Therefore, the economy now benefits from a higher level of real national output and lower price level. Real National Output For each of the following examples, identify the impact on an AD/Classical LRAS and draw a new diagram to show the new equilibrium position. Scenario 1 Tax breaks are given to firms who invest profits in research and development 2 There is an increase in imports 3 New laws are passed that block the construction of new oil pipelines 4 There is an increase in consumer confidence 5 The government injects £5bn into widening training course availability for the unemployed Macroeconomic Policy Implications Classical economists would advocate and support economic policies that improve long-run aggregate supply That is not to say aggregate demand is unimportant, but if AD increases with no attention given to improving the quality and quantity of factor resources, then inflation (rising price levels) will occur and damage economic growth Keynesian Long-Run Equilibrium Building diagrams: Axis? AD Curve? Keynesian LRAS Curve? LRAS Price Level Recap. Keynes believed the economy could settle in equilibrium below the full employment level of output. P AD Therefore, the distance Y-FE represents spare capacity in the economy. It follows that there is likely to be unemployment because of a deficiency of AD. Y FE = Full Employment FE Real National Output Shifts in AD and Keynesian LRAS This is the same as previously outlined However, of critical importance is the original equilibrium position of the economy 1) Begin with the equilibrium position. 2) What will happen if there is an increase in LRAS consumption? 3) AD will shift to the right. Price Level P1 P AD1 4) There will be an expansion along the LRAS curve. The price level will increase to P1 as the economy gets closer to full employment and resources become more scarce. Real national output increases to Y1, but spare capacity of Y1-FE remains. AD Y Y1 FE Real National Output Keynesian Long-Run Shifts Example (1) 5) If AD continues to increase.... Price Level 6) ....without any increases in LRAS LRAS 7) At some point FE equilibrium will be reached.... 8) ...and any increases in AD above AD2 will be purely inflationary. P2 P1 P AD2 AD1 AD Y Y1 FE Real National Output Keynesian Long-Run Shifts Example (1) Continued 9) If however AD is depressed at AD3.... 10) ....and AD increases to AD4 LRAS Price Level 12) Therefore, any policies to increase LRAS would simply enhance spare capacity and leave the equilibrium level of employment unchanged. P AD3 Y3 Y4 11) the price level would be unchanged because there remains a significant amount of spare capacity in the economy. Increases in AD can be absorbed without increases in the price level. AD4 FE Real National Output Keynesian Long-Run Shifts Example (1) Continued 2 1) Begin with the equilibrium position. Price Level 2) What will happen if there is an increase in capital efficiency? LRAS LRAS1 3) There will be an expansion along the AD curve. The price level will decrease as available factor resources are increased and scarcity reduces. Real national output increases to Y1 and maximum productive potential increases to FE1, indicating economic growth. 3) LRAS will shift to the right P P1 AD Y FE Y1 FE1 Real National Output Keynesian Long-Run Shifts Example (2) Macroeconomic Policy Implications Keynesian economists would therefore advocate and support economic policies that improve and manage aggregate demand That is not to say long-run aggregate supply is unimportant, but if the economy is operating significantly below its full potential e.g. in a recession, Keynesian economists would focus attention on policies that stimulate the components of aggregate demand (C, I, G, X, M) Multiple Choice 1 Price Level The shift in the aggregate demand curve SRAS AD1 AD from AD to AD1 could have been caused by an increase in a) imports b) labour productivity c) household savings d) the government budget deficit Real National Output Can you explain your answer? Multiple Choice 2 Price Level SRAS E The diagram shows the AD and SRAS curves for an economy. Equilibrium is at point E. Which one of the following would be likely to lead to a new equilibrium position, with a fall in the price level? a) A fall in exports b) An increase in government spending AD c) A fall in productivity d) An increase in wage rates Real National Output Can you explain your answer? Multiple Choice 3 Which one of the following combination of events, A, B, C or D is most likely to have SRAS bought about the change in equilibrium output from 0Y to 0Y1? SRAS1 Price Level P P1 The level of investment rises Money wages in the economy rise B The level of exports decreases Business taxes increase C The level of consumption falls The cost of oil and other imported raw materials decrease D Government spending on welfare benefits falls Average productivity falls AD AD1 0 A Y Y1 Real National Output Can you explain your answer? Multiple Choice 4 Price Level LRAS The diagram shows the AD curve and SRAS SRAS X AD and LRAS curves of an economy. The economy is currently operating at point X. At this point, the economy must be experiencing a) inflation caused by excess demand. b) inflation caused by increasing costs. c) unemployment of labour. d) a low rate of economic growth. Real National Output Can you explain your answer? 2.4 You should be able to: Demonstrate how changes in the price level are represented on an AD/AS diagram Differentiate between the factors that might impact short-run aggregate supply from long-run aggregate supply Demonstrate economic growth in an economy using a long-run aggregate supply curve Use AD/AS diagrams to explain and analyse different macroeconomic problems and issues