Research & Analysis of Rival Companies
Blair Cannon
Joey Fleming
Nikita Gowin
Table of Contents
Part I – Description.................……………………..……2-8
Question 1………………………….…….2-3
Question 2………………………………..3-5
Question 3………………………………..5-8
Part II – Opportunity..…………………………………..9
Question 1………………………………..9
Question 2………………………………..9
Part III – Industry Analysis.....…………………………..10-15
Question 1………………………………..10-12
Question 2………………………………..12
Question 3………………………………..12-14
Question 4………………………………..15
Question 5………………………………..15
Part IV…………………………………………………..….16-17
Question 1………………………………..16
Question 2………………………………..16
Question 3………………………………...17
References………………………………………………….18-19
1
PART I
1.
For two publicly traded business rivals in the same industry, give the following information:
A) Their Corporate addresses.
B) Description of the businesses in which they compete against each other.
C) The name of this industry according to IBISWorld or according to Standard & Poor’s
Industry Survey.
A)
UPS World Headquarters is located at 55 Glenlake Parkway NE, Atlanta, GA 30328, United
States. (7). FedEx Corporate Headquarters is located at 942 South Shady Grove Road, Memphis,
Tennessee 38120, United States. (1).
B)
To illustrate the business environment these companies compete in we first examine their own
descriptions of operations based on their annual Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange
Commission. In this document, FedEx describes their business operations as, “providing a broad portfolio
of transportation, e-commerce and business service.” (1) In comparison, UPS describes their operations
as, “the time-definite delivery of packages and documents worldwide.” We see commonality of
transportation and delivery service, which is the focus of our research. UPS also provides global supply
chain services and less-than-truckload delivery services which occur primarily in the United States. (5)
FedEx Corporation provides a wider base of services when compared to UPS. The entire
corporation is comprised of four main segments; FedEx Express, FedEx Ground, FedEx Freight, and
FedEx Office. In comparison to UPS, we will omit the latter two components of FedEx, as they are not
industry related. FedEx Express is the world’s largest express transportation service and consists of
46,000 drop-off locations, over 660 aircraft and approximately a 50,000-ground vehicle fleet.
Cumulatively, this division delivers over three million packages daily and deals with 210 countries. The
FedEx Ground division operates solely in the United States but is the leading small-package carrier within
the US. This segment offers shipping services for both businesses and residential customers.
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In comparison to FedEx, the United Parcel Service operates in the two industry segments
mentioned above. According to revenue and volume, UPS is the largest small-package carrier in the
world. Much like FedEx, UPS is organized into three main business segments; Domestic Package
Business, International Package Business, and Freight and Supply Chain Solutions. The only segment
related to the US Couriers and Local Delivery Services industry is their Domestic Package Business
division, which accounts for over half of their revenues at 62.1%. Their focus is on ground delivery
services but also takes part in air shipping. Within the United States, UPS and FedEx are in head-to-head
competition for market share in both air and ground shipping segments. Currently UPS holds the higher
market share in ground services and is continually stealing air service market share from FedEx. UPS has
the most dominance in the US market and is attempting to gain this same dominance abroad by expanding
into Asia-Pacific, Latin America and European markets. (12).
C)
The United Parcel Service and FedEx Corporation compete in the Couriers and Local Messengers
Industry, coded as “NAICS 49211” by IBIS World. This industry is composed of two distinct groups of
businesses; couriers, and local messengers and delivery services. Couriers are large firms that transport
and deliver packages across the country by means of ground and air transportation systems. The two
major firms within this industry group are UPS and FedEx, which cumulatively account for
approximately 60% of total industry revenue. The Courier industry is related to that of Local Freight
Trucking, Long-Distance Freight Trucking, and Postal Service in the United States. (11).
2) What are the employment prospects in the industry in which these businesses compete?
In the Bureau of Labor Statistics “Career Guide to Industries, 2010-2011 Edition,” the industries with
the closest relationship to the courier industry of FedEx and UPS are Truck Transportation and
Warehousing and Air Transportation. Employment information provided for the Truck Transportation
and Warehousing industry states that since 2008, many of these firms have consolidated their operations,
which means they have cut jobs in order to decrease their workforce and related expenses. It is estimated
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that between 2008 and 2018, employment within this industry will grow by 11%. This includes all
occupations that make up businesses and corporations in this industry, such as office and administrative
positions, transportation and material moving occupations, sales, maintenance, and other managerial
positions. Changes in employment trends of this industry tend to closely mirror that of the overall
economy. This is evidenced by the drop in employee positions due to the recession that officially began in
2008. Much like other industries throughout the US, businesses were forced to condense their operations
in attempts to cut losses and remain profitable. As the economy turns around, the sale of goods will
increase and there will be an increase in demand for the transportation of these goods. The opposite is
also true, when sales decrease, this industry is often one of the first affected with a decline in demand for
their services. This direct correlation illustrates the relationship between the market for transportation
delivery service and the overall national economic condition. With this highly correlated relationship and
the evidence of our recovering economy, the employment outlook for this industry is favorable.
Businesses in this industry will also likely be one of the first to recover since their demand directly relates
to consumer sales. This will boost the need for not only drivers, but also lead to administrative and office
employment opportunities. (10).
The air transportation employment outlook is not as positive compared to the trucking and
warehousing industry. Overall, employment growth between 2008 and 2018 is estimated to increase by
7.5%, but particular occupations related to the courier industry are estimated to have negative growth. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates the percentage of employees who work as laborers and freight, stock,
and material movers will decrease by 3.4 percent by 2018. This prediction is offset by the truck
transportation and warehousing industry because that same occupation is anticipated to increase by 3.4
percent by 2018. Though truck drivers, light or delivery services are expected to decrease by 1.3 percent.
These fields seem to be most closely related to the operations of UPS and FedEx in the United States,
therefore I believe their employment outlook is not as optimistic as the overall industry as reported by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics. Restrictions are increasing making it harder for the average citizen to land a
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job in the air transportation industry. Employees must be in nearly immaculate health, especially to be a
pilot, and it is becoming more prevalent for even flight attendants and other employees on-board aircraft
to have some type of higher education degree. Emerging economies around the globe give a more positive
outlook for the air transportation of UPS and FedEx, but based on their US operations the ground delivery
services have the most optimistic growth and employment outlook. (9).
3. Over the period 2006-2011, what has been the trend in strategic and financial ratios for each of
these two businesses? For each business, plot the following metrics on separate line charts, each
with the years 2006-2010 on the x-axis:
A) Return on Equity,
B) Stock Price
C) Total Assets,
D) Operational Efficiency
E) Share of Industry Value.
A) Refer to Figure 1
Over the past five years, UPS has averaged an ROE of 26.89%. There is a positive correlation,
but no consistent trend across the five years. UPS experienced a significant drop in ROE from 2006 to
2007 due to increased operating expenses, of which the majority was related to a nine million dollar
increase in compensation and benefits. Net income in 2007 dipped down to $382 million as compared to
$4.2 billion and $3.0 billion in 2006 and 2008 respectively. From 2008 forward, UPS decreased their
average total equity, which helped increase ROE back to normal values that are reflective of 2006. FedEx
has maintained a more consistent ROE compared to UPS. They have maintained relatively the same
amount of total average equity throughout the past five years but decreasing net income, beginning in
2008, has caused the slight decrease in ROE from year to year. As noted in the chart key, the companies
do not have the same fiscal year end. This means that varying economic conditions could have impacts on
the years financial numbers but these differences are immaterial therefore we are still able to reliably
compare their performance. (4) (7)
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B) Refer to Figure 2
Comparing stock prices for both companies over the past five years shows relatively the same
trend between the two. We see a drop in price from 2006 to 2008 leading up to the economic recession in
the United States. Surprisingly, the stock price rebounds during the recession, which is interesting
because the overall stock market was decreasing in value during this time. FedEx has maintained the
highest value over UPS over these five historical years. However, this does not mean FedEx is more
valuable than UPS because their stock may be overvalued. In order to determine this, much further in
depth research would have to be completed to value each company. (4) (7)
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C) Refer to Figure 3
Since 2006, total assets have a relatively flat correlation for both FedEx and UPS. This is
surprising because many companies have incurred reconstruction charges over the past few years to help
offset decreased revenues due to the down economy and in order to create future savings. Along with
reconstructions, many firms have also written down the value of assets, of which is apparent in the
financial statements for neither UPS nor FedEx. During 2007, UPS significantly decreased their cash and
cash equivalents by approximately $1.5 billion, which attributed to the majority of their decrease in assets
from 2007 to 2008. I predict this positive trend in assets to continue indefinitely into the future as both
companies grow and the economic conditions improve. (4) (7)
D) Refer to Figure 4
As displayed by Figure 4, operating efficiency has varied for both UPS and FedEx throughout the
last five years. This performance measure compares revenue to average total assets for the year. The large
increase from 2007 to 2008 for UPS can be explained by the decrease in assets as afore mentioned. FedEx
has continually increased their assets as illustrated by Figure 3, and diminishing revenues has caused their
operating efficiency to drop since 2007. UPS revenues increased by approximately $4 billion in fiscal
year 2009, which explains the increase in operating efficiency for the year. Based on this comparison,
UPS currently hold the efficiency advantage over FedEx. (4) (7)
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E) Refer to Figure 5
The share of industry value is effectively measured by annual revenues of each company
compared to the revenues produced by the industry as a whole. Annual report 10-K for UPS and FedEx
provides geographic revenues; therefore, we are able to separate US revenues from the entire company
operations. This provides us with the means to compare with the US Courier industry total revenues to
see the percent of market share based on revenues. As mentioned earlier, UPS holds Figure 5 also
illustrates a bigger share of the US market compared to FedEx and this. As the graph shows, UPS and
FedEx consistently account for over 75% of the entire industry revenues. Both companies have a positive
correlation and have been continually increasing over the past five years. (4) (7)
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PART II: OPPORTUNITY
1.
Define or describe the industry that these businesses compete in.
The United Parcel Service and FedEx Corporation compete in the Couriers and Local Messengers
Industry (16). According to IBIS World, couriers are establishments that primarily engage in delivery
services between urban centers using a network of air and surface transportation systems. UPS and FedEx
work with individuals as well as business to provide service all around the world and are recognizable
around the world. They provide ground shipping, domestic air transit deliveries, international air transit
deliveries, and messengers and local deliveries. These companies have been adapting to the growth of
technology by adjusting and expanding their service to fit customer’s needs. With the growth of online
use, UPS and FedEx have created package tracking systems and label print out capabilities. It is difficult
for another company to compete with large established companies such as UPS and FedEx. Smaller
courier service companies do exist but are usually not a threat.
2.
In the industry as you defined it, which geographic area is there currently the largest
amount of demand? How large is the amount of demand in this geographic area?
How fast is demand growing in this geographic area?
The United States currently has the largest amount of demand in the Couriers and Local
Messengers Industry (16). Both UPS and FedEx have expanded into other countries around the world but
the focus of business is in the US. The current demand in the United States is $75 billion in 2011 with
about a two percent projected growth each year (15). The expected growth rate is dependent on the US
economy and competition from other industries. Technology is also another factor that must be
considered when making demand projections. With the increased use of email and electronic
technologies, the courier industry sees drops in demand for some services.
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Part III: Industry Analysis
1. Do a “5-forces” Analysis for the industry. For each force, state its power magnitude as either
High, Moderate, or Low; and explain why you assigned it that magnitude of power.
Rivalry:
Rivalry is high within the courier industry. There is high competition due to the low number of companies
in market. The main two competitors control approximately 60% of the market share, with all other
competitors controlling less than one percent. (11) (12) (13)
Buyer Power:
The buying power for the industry is low. Producers threaten the company with forward
integration. Producers can take over their own distribution and retailing. There are many, different buyers
and no buyer has any particular control over a product or price. The couriers segment that is the majority
of industry revenue is concentrated. (11) (12) (13)
Threat to entry:
The courier industry is a difficult market to enter. Barriers to entry in this industry are low and
are steady. These companies rely on skilled labor. Delivery personnel are required to have commercial
driving licenses or pilot licenses, capital investment is at a high level and is needed for delivery systems
that allow customers and couriers to track packages and confirm deliveries. These systems are critical for
improving efficiency and productivity. Based on IBIS World reports, we rate the threat to entry as
moderate. (11) (12) (13)
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Threat of Substitute
Threat of substitution is high within the industry, especially with the increase online services that
substitute the need for paper documents, which traditionally are shipped. Further, competition from
substitutes negatively influences each sector, but these differ in each category. The popularity of ecommerce has had a large effect on this industry. Alternative methods, such as e-mail and fax, have
increased reducing demand for some industry services. The rising popularity of e-commerce has increased
the speed of business transactions, which has boosted the demand for industry services. In addition, more
people are purchasing items online, so there is a greater need for delivery services between retailers and
customers. (11) (12)
The US Couriers and Local Delivery Services industry is classified as having a high level of
concentration. The top two competitors account for approximately 59.2% of the industry revenue. (11)
(12) (13)
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Supplier Power:
Within the courier industry, supplier power is moderate. Supplier power refers to the raw materials
used by the companies. This leads to buyer-supplier relationships between the industry and the firms that
provide the raw materials. Suppliers can influence the industry by selling raw materials at a high price in
order to gain some of the profits. If these relationships are weak, it can result with companies having to
increase their prices and losing customers to rivals. Thus making the supplier power a moderate risk that
all depends upon the relationship between the buyer and supplier. (11) (12) (13)
2.
Count the LOW-power forces you identified in your 5-forces analysis and use the count to make
a conclusion about whether the expected profitability for the average rival is High, Moderate,
or Low. Briefly explain what that magnitude of profitability means financially.
Based on our five forces analysis, we have two high power threats, two moderate threats, and one low
power threat to profit. This leads us to conclude there is a moderate threat to profit for each of the
companies being examined. The magnitude to which these treats gouge into their profits can highly affect
their overall business and operations. Profits can be used to fund expansion, decrease debt making the
business a less risky investment which obviously gives confidence to investors, and other such factors
that benefit each respective company. The more a firm is able to profit, the more opportunities they have
for things like expansion and growth. FedEx Corporation and UPS have used profits to their benefits and
are both now growing their operations globally. The magnitude of profitability affects the ability of
companies to make decisions such as going global, like FedEx and UPS have done.
3.
Explain the meaning of the term “Key Success Factor?” List and describe (in words, like a
definition) at least four Key Success Factors that any competitor in this industry must be good
at to be profitable.
Key Success Factor (KSF): "those competitive factors that most affect industry members' ability to
prosper in the marketplace - the particular strategy elements, product attributes, resources, competencies,
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capabilities, and market achievements that spell the difference between being a strong or weak
competitor"; the label for the resources and capabilities that respond to buyer needs and defend against
the high-powered threats to profit. KSF "by their very nature are so important ... that all firms in the
industry must be competent at performing, or achieving, them or risk becoming an industry also-ran".
(14)
Refer to Table 1 (in part 4.1)
Evaluating key success factors for companies is the best way of determining their ability to
establish a sustainable competitive advantage over competitors. As determined by our group, four of the
most imperative key success factors for the courier industry consist of the index of sustainable growth
(G*), operating efficiency, economies of scale, and scale.
As shown in Table 1, G* is calculated by subtracting the dividend payout ratio from one and
multiplying that by the company’s return on equity. In the calculation of each company’s G*, FedEx and
UPS, we referenced financial statistics supplied by Yahoo Finance. This sustainable growth statistic can
be greatly affected by the amount of debt and financial leverage held by each individual company. Having
high leverage magnifies profit and increases the return on equity. As a multiplier in the G* calculation,
return on equity plays a vital role in the score of the G* statistic. Though using large amounts of debt to
fund operations magnifies profits and increases ROE, it also magnifies any losses that may occur and
makes the company riskier due to solvency issues. A higher score is most beneficial for gaining a
sustainable competitive advantage. UPS ranks significantly higher than FedEx and scores the strongest in
strength assessment between the two competitors (refer to Table 2 in part 4.2). (2) (6)
To calculate operating efficiency, divide revenues by the average total assets. When comparing
an income statement item to a balance sheet item, we must average the balance sheet item since the
beginning and ending balances are only for a certain point in time whereas the income statement covers
the entire period. This key success factor is specifically important to the courier industry because the large
amount of assets held by UPS and FedEx including their fleets of delivery vehicles and aircraft. These
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assets are expensive to operate, especially with fuel prices soaring to new heights and threatening profits,
it is important to operate efficiently. Effective quality control is crucial to ensuring the company is
operating to their highest potential. Service providers deliver packages that are valuable or time sensitive.
It is important for industry participants to have control systems to ensure deliveries are not lost or
delayed.
This efficiency could be greatly decreased if either company were completing less-than-truckload deliveries or other inefficient operations for their services. Optimum capacity utilization is important
for companies in order to maintain a high frequency of deliveries, to utilize all assets, and to maintain
profitability. The higher the revenues compared to the least amount of assets is best for this performance
measure, therefore a higher score is preferred. FedEx is stronger on this statistic than is UPS and is
assigned the strongest score of five compared to the weakest score of one that is assigned to UPS (refer to
Table 2 in part 4.2). (1) (5)
Economies of scale is another important success factor that is established over time because it
decreases costs within a company and allows for maximized profits, creating more value for the business
and their investors. Dividing costs by total assets, and the lower the score, the better makes the
calculation. Comparing the strength on this key success factor, UPS ranks higher than FedEx and
deserves the strongest score of five while FedEx gets the weakest score of one (refer to Table 2 in part
4.2). (1) (5)
Scale is the final key success factor examined for FedEx and UPS. This helps illustrate the
capacity and the magnitude of each company’s operations. Simply total assets on the balance sheet
measure this. A higher number is better for sustaining an advantage over the competition and helps to
support economies of scale. Therefore, on strength assessment UPS ranks stronger than FedEx and scores
a five while FedEx is distinctly weaker and scores a one (refer to Table 2 in part 4.2). (1) (5)
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4.
Give a calculation that you can use to measure each KSF, and then for each of the two
competitors do each calculation with data from a credible source available online at NCSU
library.
KSF 1: G*= (1 - dividend payout ratio) * ROE
FedEx = (1-.11)*0.0898
UPS = (1-.54)*.4431
FedEx= .080
UPS= .204
KSF 2: Operating Efficiency= Sales / Avg Total Assets
FedEx = 32294/((22690+20404)/2)
UPS = 47547/((33210+34947)/2)
FedEx= 1.50
UPS= 1.40
KSF 3: Economies of Scale = Costs / Total Assets
FedEx = 32736/22690
UPS = 43671/33210
FedEx= 1.443
UPS= 1.315
KSF 4: Scale= Total Assets
FedEx= 22,690 UPS= 33,210
5.
For two KSF you listed, explain how each separately protects profit from one Hi-Power Threat
you listed in (III.1)
Economies of scale are significant when protecting against the high threat of rivalry in the courier
industry. This allows the business to operate at lower internal costs than their competitors. With rivals
competing for consumer demand, the most attractive company typically offers the lowest price without
sacrificing quality. When a company has established economies of scale, they are able to lower their
prices to remain competitive while still remaining profitable and more importantly, more profitable than
their competitors.
Operating efficiency helps protect against the threat of substitution. It is hard to protect against
advances in technology that consumers are able to complete on their own, such as the real time data
communication via email. If the companies remain efficient in their operations, they will be able to retain
customer demand and remain profitable. This profitability can help each company research, develop, and
purchase new technological advancements that will help ward off the threat of other substitutes.
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Part IV
1. For two publicly traded business rivals in the same industry, present a table that shows the
following information:
a) Four Key Success Factors as row labels;
b) A separate column for each business rival;
c) Use the most recent available raw data for each competitor to calculate the KSF value
for each and enter it into the appropriate cell.
d) For each Key Success Factor, convert its raw score you calculated for each rival to a
distinctive competency score on a scale of 1-5
Table 1
KEY SUCCESS FACTORS
KSF : G*
(1 - dividend payout ratio) *
ROE
(Higher score is better)
KSF : Operating Efficiency
Sales / Avg Total Assets
(Higher score is better)
KSF : Economies of Scale
Costs / Total Assets
(Lower score is better)
KSF : Scale
Total Assets
(Higher score is better)
FedEx
UPS
0.080
0.204
1.50
1.40
1.443
1.315
22,690
33,210
2. Present another table that shows the following information:
a) For each Key Success Factor, convert its raw score you calculated for each rival to a
strength assessment score on a scale of 1-5.
b) For each Competitor, calculate the average for its column of strength assessment scores.
Table 2
KEY SUCCESS FACTORS
KSF : G*
KSF : Operating Efficiency
KSF : Economies of Scale
KSF : Scale
Average Score
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FedEx
1
5
1
1
UPS
5
1
5
5
2
4
3. Use the strength assessment to identify the rival that is most likely to create and sustain
competitive advantage against the other.
Based on our calculations of key success factors and the strength and weakness rankings
determined by our strength assessment, it is evident UPS has the most likely advantage of creating and
maintaining competitive advantage over FedEx. UPS is strongest on three of the four key success factors
examined and has an average score of four, compared to FedEx’s average score of two. Based on the
factors studied during our research, UPS holds a major advantage and best ability of having a sustainable
competitive advantage when compared to its industry’s largest competitor, FedEx.
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References
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(10) United States Department Of Labor. "Truck Transportation and Warehousing." Bureau Of
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2011. Web. 7 Apr. 2011. <http://www.ibisworld.com/industryus/default.aspx?indid=1950>.
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Web. 14 Apr. 2011. <http://www.ibisworld.com/industryus/Majorcompanies.aspx?indid=1950>.
(13) “Porters 5 Forces” 14 April 2011
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(14) Young, Greg. “MEASURING PERFORMANCE USING FINANCIAL RATIOS & SETTING
OBJECTIVES”. North Carolina State University, 22 Feb. 2011. Web.
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Web. 26 Apr. 2011. <http://www.ibisworld.com/industryus/industryoutlook.aspx?indid=1950>.
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(16) "Products & Markets." IBIS World: Couriers & Local Delivery Services In The US. N.p.,
n.d. Web. 26 Apr. 2011. <http://www.ibisworld.com/industryus/productsandmarkets.aspx?indid=1950>.
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