Science, Society, and Public Policy Michael M. Crow Columbia University - THE IMPORTANCE OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCE - THE SOCIAL SHAPING OF THE NATIONAL SCIENCE BASE - S&T POLICY: THE 1950’S MODEL - TRADING IN THE 1950’S MODEL SCIENCE AS AN INSTRUMENT OF POLICY: Science is an instrument that can be used for a variety of social objectives, including: - Meeting Basic Human Needs Making War Improving the Quality of Life Economic Growth and Development SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: • Between 1870 and 1973, the U.S. economy had grown at an average rate of 3.4% annually. • Between 1973 and 1993, the average rate of growth flattened to 2.3%. 2.3% slow growth 3.4% long term rate GDP losses 1973 1993 Economic Growth: Importance • Over the 20 years since 1973, the accumulated losses in goods and services due to slow growth have come to nearly $12 trillion, or $40,000 per person. Economic Growth: Importance • $12 trillion is more than enough to: – Have bought each of America’s landowners a new house; or, – Paid off all of our government, mortgage, and credit card debt; or, – Replaced all of our nation’s factories, including capital equipment, with new ones. Economic Growth: Importance • As the triangle grows over time, so does the cumulative damage. By the year 2013, assuming the post-1973 trend of growing just one-percent less than our historical average holds, the losses would be $35 trillion of lost production since 1973. • This is a loss of over $100,000 per person. Economic Growth: Importance • Compounded over generations, a 1 or 2 percent reduction in the overall growth rate could be the difference between the standard of living merely doubling or increasing five-fold over a 100 year period. Most economists agree that scientific and technical change accounts for as much as 50% of long-run economic growth. A large number of economists argue that, when we measure scientific and technical change properly, the figure is as high as 75%. “ NATIONAL INNOVATION SYSTEMS” AND SCIENTIFIC/TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCE National Innovation Systems: The Complex Network of Agents, Policies, and Institutions Supporting the Process of Scientific and Technical Advance in an Economy The “Narrow” NIS • Organizations and Institutions Directly Involved in Searching and Exploring Activities, e.g. Universities and Research Laboratories The “Narrow” NIS Mission Agencies Public S&T Labs Hybrid S&T Labs Scientific and Technological Societies Universities Private Firms Technology Sharing Regimes Intellectual Property Regimes Technology Licensing Regimes The “Broad” NIS • Includes, In Addition To The Components Of The Narrow NIS, All Economic, Political, And Other Social Institutions Affecting Learning, Searching, And Exploring Activities, e.g. A Nation’s Financial System, Its Monetary Policies, And Internal Organization Of Private Firms The “Broad” NIS User-Producer Relationships Mission Agencies Public S&T Labs Hybrid S&T Labs Organization of Financial System Scientific and Technological Societies Internal Organization of Firms Private Firms Technology Sharing Regimes Industrial Organization Monetary Policies Universities Intellectual Property Regimes Technology Licensing Regimes Natural Resources National R&D Expenditures, By Performer: 1995 7% 4% 5% 100% 90% 80% 3% 13% 10% 70% 60% 50% 40% 49% 71% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2% 14% 67% 24% 10% National R&D ($171.0 billion) Federal Government 12% 9% Basic Research ($29.6 billion) Industry Academia Applied Research ($39.8 billion) U&C FFRDCs Other Sources of Academic R&D Funding, By Sector 100% Other 90% Academic Institutions 80% State/Local Govt. 70% Industry 60% 50% 40% Federal Govt. 30% 20% 10% Year 1993 1990 1987 1984 1981 1978 1975 1972 1969 1966 1963 1960 0% The Complexity of the NIS Unknown Industry Government Academic Non-Prof 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 FFRDC Author Sector of the U.S. Papers Cited in Industry Patents Impact of University Research Distribution of citations across U.S. performer sectors, by field: 1990-93 Field Academia Industry Federal FFRDC Nonprofit Other All fields 70.5 7.9 9.7 1.9 8.8 1.2 Clinical medicine 68.3 5.1 11.3 0.2 12.9 2.2 6.9 9.4 0.7 9.7 0.7 Biomedical research 72.7 Biology 79.2 2.8 13.4 0.2 3.2 1.3 Chemistry 78.5 12.8 4.3 2.7 1.3 0.2 Physics 63.1 20.9 5.1 9.3 1.5 0.1 Earth & space sciences 66.1 4.8 14.4 7.8 6.1 0.8 Mathematics Engineering and Technology 4.9 19.8 2.5 7.8 1.8 4.6 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.3 88.8 66.3 Impact of University Research Patterns of cross-sector citations, by citing sector Citing sector Academia Industry Federal FFRDC Nonprofit Other 1985-1988 articles 6.3 10.6 2.2 9.0 1.4 Academic institutions 77.1 4.3 8.0 1.6 7.7 1.2 Industry 36.1 8.1 1990-1993 articles 7.9 9.7 2.7 5.2 1.0 1.9 8.8 1.2 Academic institutions 76.5 5.9 7.5 1.5 7.6 1.0 Industry 35.7 7.8 1.8 5.9 0.9 United States, total United States, total 70.5 46.9 70.5 47.8 Support for Academic R&D, 1935, and 1960-1990 (Millions of Current Dollars) $16,000 73% 71% 68% 14000 70% 67% 63% 12000 63% $9,686 10000 Millions of Dollars 80% 8000 58% 60% 50% 40% $6,077 6000 30% 24% 4000 2000 $50 $646 $1,474 $2,335 $3,409 20% 10% 0 0% 1935 1960 1965 Total Academic R&D 1970 1975 1980 % Federally Supported 1985 1990 % Federally Supported 16000 The Complexity of the NIS Institutional Origin of Papers Cited in IBM Patents Other Foreign 24 Foreign Companies 84 Foreign Universities 69 Other US 22 Other U.S. Companies 66 IBM 103 U.S. Universities 123 0 50 100 Number of References 150 The Components of the NIS Have Different Effects and Operate Differently Across Industries; For Example: • University Science More Relevant to Some Industries than Others • Different Extraindustry Sources of Technological Knowledge Across Different Industries • Effectiveness of Patents Varies Across Industries THE RELEVANCE OF UNIVERSITY SCIENCE TO INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY Science # of Industries Industries in Which the Relevance of with scores* Science was Large >= 5 6 Biology 12 3 Animal feed, drugs, processed fruits/vegetables Chemistry 19 3 Animal feed, meat products, drugs Geology 0 0 None Mathematics 5 1 Optical Instruments Physics 4 2 Optical Instruments, Electron tubes Agricultural Science 17 Applied Math/ Operations Research 16 Computer Science 34 Materials Science 29 Medical Science 7 7 Pesticides, animal feed, fertilizers, food products 2 Meat products, logging/sawmills 10 Optical Instruments, logging/sawmills, paper machinery 8 Synthetic rubber, nonferrous metals 3 Surgical/medical instruments, drugs, coffee Metallurgy 21 6 Nonferrous metals, fabricated metal products Chemical Engineering 19 6 Canned foods, fertilizers, malt beverages Electrical Engineering 22 2 Semiconductors, scientific instruments Mechanincal Engineering 28 9 Hand tools, specialized industrial machinery * on a scale of 1 (low) to 7 (high) Source: Rosenberg and Nelson (1994) INDUSTRIES RATING UNIVERSITY RESEARCH AS “IMPORTANT” OR “VERY IMPORTANT” Fluid milk Dairy products except milk Canned specialties Logging and sawmills Semiconductors and related devices Pulp, paper, and paperboard mills Farm machinery and equipment Grain mill products Pesticides and agricultural chemicals Processed fruits and vegetables Engineering and scientific instruments Millwork, veneer, and plywood Synthetic rubber Drugs Animal Feed Source: Rosenberg and Nelson (1994) THE RELEVANCE OF SCIENCE TO INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY Science # of Industries Industries in Which the Relevance of with scores* University Science was Large >= 5 6 Biology 14 Chemistry 74 Geology 4 Mathematics 30 Physics 44 Agricultural Science 16 Applied math/operations research32 Computer Science 79 Materials Science 99 Medical Science 8 Metallurgy 60 8 43 3 9 18 9 6 35 46 5 35 Drugs, pesticides, meat products, animal feed Pesticides, fertilizers, glass, plastics Fertilizers, pottery, nonferrous materials Optical instruments, machine tools, motor vehicles Semiconductors, computers, guided missiles Pesticides, animal feed, fertilizers, food products Guided missiles, aluminum smelting, motor vehicles Guided missiles, semiconductors, motor vehicles Primary metals, ball bearings, aircraft engines Asbestos, drugs, surgical/medical instruments Primary metals, aircraft engines, ball bearings * on a scale of 1 (low) to 7 (high) Source: Rosenberg and Nelson (1994) EXTRAINDUSTRY SOURCES OF TECHNOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE Source # of Industries Industries in which external with scores* contribution to knowledge was large >= 5 Materials Suppliers Production Eqpt. Suppliers Research Eqpt. Suppliers 55 63 20 Users 30 University Research Government Labs Other Govt. Agencies Technical Societies Independent Inventors 9 6 5 12 9 6 16 Food products, lumber/wood products, radio/TV sets 21 Food products, lumber/wood products, metal working 4 Food products, drugs, soap/detergents, semiconductors 6 Machinery, electrical eqpt., surgical/medical instruments 3 Animal feed, drugs 2 Fertilizers, logging/sawmills, optical instruments 2 Auto components, optical instruments 3 Paper industries machinery, logging/sawmills 5 Hand tools, metal doors/frames, etc. * on a scale of 1 (low) to 7 (high) Source: Levin et al. (1987) EFFECTIVENESS OF PATENT PROTECTION ACROSS INDUSTRIES WITH TEN OR MORE RESPONSES (MEAN SCORE ON SCALE OF 1-7) Process Products Patents Patents Industry (Mean) (Mean) Pulp, paper, and paperboard 2.6 3.3 Cosmetics 2.9 4.1 Inorganic chemicals 4.6 5.2 Organic chemicals 4.1 6.1 Drugs 4.9 6.5 Plastic materials 4.6 5.4 Plastic products 3.2 4.9 Petroleum refining 4.9 4.3 Steel mill products 3.5 5.1 Pumps and pumping eqpt. 3.2 4.4 Motors, generators, and controls 2.7 3.5 Computers 3.3 3.4 Communications eqpt. 3.1 3.6 Semiconductors 3.2 4.5 Motor vehicle parts 3.7 4.5 Aircraft and parts 3.1 3.8 Measuring devices 3.6 3.9 Medical instruments 3.2 4.7 Full sample 3.5 4.3 Source: Levin et al. (1987) The Evolution of the American National Innovation System The Evolution of the American National Innovation System: Four Periods • • • • Laissez-Faire (1790-1940) The War and Post-War Period (1940-1950) The Federalization Period (1950-1975) The Revisionist Period (1975-1990) Source: Crow (1994) The Evolution of the American National Innovation System Laissez-Faire Period: 1790-1940 • A Pre-Policy Period: Government Has No Distinct Science and Technology Policy or Mission • The Key Institutions in the National Innovation System: Independent Corporate R&D Labs • Government Does Establish Some R&D Labs to Support Weak Industries (i.e. Mining) • Beginning of the Late 1800’s: Universities Emerge as the Home of Basic Science and Advanced Training The Evolution of the American National Innovation System The War and Post-War Period 1940-1950 • To Support the War Effort, the Government Establishes Many New R&D Institutions and a New, Expanded Role for Academic Science • During the War, Large Scale Federal Investment, Federally Mandated R&D Objectives, Targeted Funding, and Industrial and Governmental Cooperation are the Norm • By the end of the War, Hundreds of New R&D Labs had been established, and the potential of Large Scale R&D for meeting national objectives is demonstrated The Evolution of the American National Innovation System The War and Post-War Period 1940-1950 Following the Dramatic Change in Science and Technology Policy During the War, Policy Makers Sensed the Potential of Science and Technology to Serve the National Interest The Evolution of the American National Innovation System The War and Post-War Period 1940-1950 In 1944, President Roosevelt asked Vannevar Bush, the Director of the Wartime OSRD, to Look Ahead to the Role of Science in Peacetime. Bush’s Design, Presented in Science the Endless Frontier, Became the Foundation for U.S. Science Policy LINEAR TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT MODEL Pure Basic Research Directed Basic Research FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH AND DISCOVERY Intermediate Range Applied Research Applied Research FOCUSED RESEARCH AND PRELIMINARY DEVELOPMENT Increasing Role of Universities Increasing Role of Government Tech. Development FOCUSED DEVELOPMENT Tech. Commercialization MARKET DRIVEN TECH. DEVELOPMENT Increasing Role of Industry The Evolution of the American National Innovation System The Bush Design Was Built Around the Following Characteristics: • Political Autonomy: • Self Regulation by Scientists: • Focus on science for science’s sake as well as problem solving • Strong academic model of individual achievement • General Accountability(linked to broad objectives of national well being) • Single Major Basic Research Agency • Limited resources for only the best scientists The Evolution of the American National Innovation System: The Bush Design Political Autonomy • Separation from Political Control • Separate Governance The Evolution of the American National Innovation System: The Bush Design Self-Regulation by Scientists • Peer-Review The Bush Design Focus on Science for Science’s Sake As Well as Problem Solving • Basic Science/Fundamental Discovery • Applied Science The Evolution of the American National Innovation System: The Bush Design Strong Academic Model of Individual Achievement • Scientists as Individual Thinkers The Evolution of the American National Innovation System: The Bush Design General Accountability (Linked to Broad Objectives of National Well-Bring) • Success Measured by Overall National Achievement The Evolution of the American National Innovation System: The Bush Design Single Major Basic Research Agency • NSF in original design The Evolution of the American National Innovation System: The Bush Design Limited Resources for Only the Best Scientists • Small Budgets The Evolution of the American National Innovation System Federalization Period: 1950-1975 By the end of the period, five types of institutions were important in the NIS: – Hundreds of Large Industrial Labs – Dozens of Large Federal Labs – Thousands of Small Technology Oriented Labs and Companies – Hundreds of Unconnected and Unplanned Federal Labs – Researchers at Universities The Evolution of the American National Innovation System The Revisionist Period 1975-1990 • Economic and Technological Position of the United States began to slip • The Bush model prevailed: Research dollars concentrated on defense and on basic science • However, pushed by local political demands, Congress did make some attempts to make to U.S. more competitive and to improve upon the Bush model The Evolution of the American National Innovation System The Revisionist Period 1975-1990 Major Efforts to Change Science Policy • • • • Stevenson-Wydler Technology Act (1980) Bayh-Dole Act (1982) National Productivity and Innovation Act (1983) Federal Technology Transfer Act (1986) The American NIS Today Today, the design parameters for basic science and the cultural design for basic science and technology remain essentially those suggested by Bush. The American NIS Today The Bush design is in serious need of updating and improvement, and has been for some time. The rationale for updating is simply that Bush failed to build into the system the feedback and response mechanisms needed for a post-industrial democracy. The American NIS Today • In updating the Bush design, we must keep in mind that the NIS today is a complex web of institutions, actors structures, and relationships. • We cannot completely overhaul it while it is in motion. • We must be aware of the size and the complexity in the system before prescribing change The American NIS Today: Examples of Size, Complexity • Interactions between Public, Private, and Hybrid Science and Technology Labs • Government Funding of Academic Basic Research, Applied Research, and Development • Percentage of New Products and Processes Based on Recent Academic Research Distribution of R&D Laboratory Type circa 1995-2005 Public Technology Labs Hybrid Technology Labs Private Science Labs Public Science Labs Private S&T Labs Public S&T Labs Private Technology Labs Hybrid Science Labs Hybrid S&T Labs Public Knowledge and Technology Products Private Knowledge and Technology Products SUPPORT FOR ACADEMIC R&D, 1935, AND 19601990 (MILLIONS OF CURRENT DOLLARS). $16,000 16000 Millions of Dollars 71% 67% 63% 12000 70% 68% 63% $9,686 58% 10000 60% 50% 8000 40% $6,077 6000 30% 24% $3,409 4000 2000 $50 $646 $1,474 20% $2,335 % Federally Supported 73% 14000 80% 10% 0 0% 1935 1960 1965 1970 Total Academic R&D 1975 1980 1985 1990 % Federally Supported Source: Rosenberg and Nelson (1994) PERCENT OF FEDERAL RESEARCH FUNDS ORIGINATING WITHING PARTICULAR AGENCIES NIH 36.7 46.4 44.4 46.4 47.2 NSF 16.2 17.1 15.7 15.1 16.1 DoD NASA DoE USDA Other 12.8 8.2 5.7 4.4 16 9.4 4.7 5.7 4.7 12.2 12.8 3.8 6.7 5.4 11 16.7 3.9 5.3 4.2 8.4 11.6 5.8 4.7 4 10.7 Source: Rosenberg and Nelson (1994) FEDERAL AND NONFEDERAL R&D EXPENDITURES AT UNIVERSITIES AND COLLEGES, BY FIELD AND SOURCE OF FUNDS, 1989 Field Total Science and Engineering Thousands of Dollars $ 14,987,279 100 Total Sciences Life Sciences Physical Sciences Environmental Sciences Social Sciences Computer Sciences Psychology Mathematical Sciences Other Sciences $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 12,599,686 8,079,851 1,643,377 982,937 636,372 467,729 237,945 214,248 337,227 84.1 53.9 11 6.6 4.2 3.1 1.6 1.4 2.3 Total Engineering Electric/Electronic Mechanical Civil Chemical Aero/Astronautical Other $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 2,387,593 600,016 340,280 249,552 185,087 146,548 866,110 15.9 4 2.3 1.7 1.2 1 5.8 % Source: Rosenberg and Nelson (1994) EXPENDITURES FOR BASIC RESEARCH, APPLIED RESEARCH, AND DEVELOPMENT, 1960-1990 (MILLIONS OF CURRENT DOLLARS) Year 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Total Academic R&D ($) Basic Research ($) 646 1,474 2,335 3,409 6,077 9,686 16,000 433 1,138 1,796 2,410 4,041 6,559 10,350 % Applied Research ($) 67 77 77 71 67 68 65 179 279 427 581 1,698 2,673 4,845 % 28 19 18 25 28 28 30 Development ($) % 34 57 112 148 338 454 805 5 4 5 4 6 5 5 Source: Rosenberg and Nelson (1994) UNIVERSITY-INDUSTRY RELATIONS • Over the past two decades, there has been a significant increase in the fraction of academic research funded by industry and in the number and size of university-industry research centers. • Some academics, while welcoming this trend, do not want industries to influence the research orientation of universities. • Other academics both welcome industry funding and are eager to reorient their research to make it more commercially relevant and rewarding. • In the 1980s, industry leaders were enthusiastic about the ability of academics to contribute to technical advance in industry. Today, however, there is considerable skepticism in industry: a prevailing view is that academics should stick to basic research and training young scientists, and to stop thinking of themselves as the sources of new technology. Source: Rosenberg and Nelson (1994) % OF NEW PRODUCTS AND PROCESSES BASED ON RECENT ACADEMIC RESEARCH, U.S., 1975-1985 % that could not have been developed (without substantial delay) in the absence of recent academic research % that was developed with very substanial aid from recent academic research Industry Products Processes Products Processes Information Processing Electronics Chemical Instruments Pharmaceuticals Metals Petroleum Average 11 6 4 16 27 13 1 11 17 3 4 5 17 9 1 8 11 3 2 2 22 12 1 9 16 4 4 1 8 9 1 6 Source: Rosenberg and Nelson (1994) The American NIS Today: Updating the Bush Design FREEMAN’S “THREE PHASES” OF SCIENCE POLICY Phase Characteristics Phase I: Military Science and Technology Policy Science policy is directed towards military purposes, promoting the development of new weapons systems for global superiority and the modification of existing technology for local or regional application. Science and technology policy is devoted to developing and maintaining the national economy, focusing on key technology industries. There is a national strategy that targets specific interests for either direct or indirect technology development and protection. Trade policies, financial policies, and/or government financed research institutes assist in technology development. The national objective is to use science and technology for sustainable growth, environmental quality, and general quality of life. Phase II: Commercial Science and Technology Policy Phase III: Comprehensive Science and Technology Policy Source: Crow (1994) RECOMMENDATION I Political Autonomy • Establishment of an institutional mechanism for forecasting our national science and technology needs DESIGN PARAMETER I: POLITICAL AUTONOMY 1. CONGRESS should establish a National Science and Technology Forecasting Institute 2. OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY would use the National Science and Technology Forecasting Institute to identify the specific S&T objective of a particular administration 3. MISSION AGENCIES would develop research agendas with regard to the S&T forecast 4. NSF’s research agenda and areas of focus would be mapped according to the S&T forecast RECOMMENDATION II Self Regulation by Scientists • Spending time and resources on educating the public about science and research • Development of a formal science “court” for internal discipline and conflict resolution • Broadening the criteria for peer review to include potential for social profit DESIGN PARAMETER II: SELF REGULATION BY SCIENTISTS c • Congress and the President would establish the U.S. Science Court. • National Science Board would establish a greatly expanded public information and access program. • Research Agencies would develop expanded criteria for project selection. RECOMMENDATION III Focus on “Science for Science’s sake” as well as Problem Solving • Eliminate references to “basic” and “applied” research projects without specific definitions of these projects • Evaluate projects with regard to their purpose, realizing that the type of research conducted (basic, applied, and fundamental technology development) are functions of the missions of agencies • Consider all projects and program areas as equal, regardless of scientific focus or technical objective, until they are evaluated DESIGN PARAMETER III Focus on Science and Problem Solving 1. OMB would establish meaningful budget categories and improved nomenclature for defining research activity. Research would be classified by purpose and not by “function”. 2. OSTP would develop project and program classification nomenclature for research type and purpose for uniform use in all agencies. 3. Mission Agency research agendas would be contextually placed with regard to the S&T forecast. 4. NSF’s research agenda and areas of focus would be mapped according to the context setting forecast. RECOMMENDATION IV Strong Academic Model of Individual Achievement • Enhanced team funding mechanisms • Expanded recognition mechanisms for team participation • Evaluation of scientists on a group and disciplinary basis • Including contributions to other fields or departments in the evaluation of particular fields or departments • Heavy funding of “star” groups DESIGN PARAMETER IV: STRONG ACADEMIC MODEL OF INDIVIDUAL ACHIEVEMENT 1. OMB would permit institution building among dispersed research enterprises such as universities. 2. Mission Agencies would concentrate funding on the best labs and roups. 3. NSF would concentrate funding by increasing grant size, develop more center type R&D efforts, and provide for enhanced linkage building between and among research groups at different institutions. RECOMMENDATION V General Accountability • Evaluating agency research programs based on their success or failure in attaining particular pre-defined goals and objectives • Integrate these evaluations into funding and priority setting models DESIGN PARAMETER V: GENERAL ACCOUNTABILITY 1.OSTP/Congress would set annual five and ten year objectives for National Science and Technology investment. 2. All Research Agencies would establish formal R&D evaluation capabilities at the agency and division levels. RECOMMENDATION VI Single Basic Research Agency • Define roles and functions of agencies with greater care • Place National Science Foundation (NSF) in charge of building foundation knowledge and research tools for other programs of research • Reorient NSF research agenda towards research foundation building needs DESIGN PARAMETER VI: SINGLE BASIC SCIENCE AGENCY 1. Congress would require a linked science budget plan indicating who is doing what and how the NSF budget request is linked. 2. Research Agencies would re-think budget and planning models to define their roles as producers of foundation knowledge, basic knowledge, or specific solutions to problems. RECOMMENDATION VII Limited Resources for only the Best • Agencies should concentrate their resources in those fields of greatest importance to their individual missions • Increase the size of average grants: more funding for fewer groups DESIGN PARAMETER VII: LIMITED RESOURCES FOR ONLY THE BEST All Research Agencies would re-think allocation models so as to begin concentration of resources to the best research groups and labs. New allocation models would be based on: - Scientific Track Records - Institutional Infrastructure - Quality of science and support groups - Overall goal attainment