Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook
Jan Vardaman, President, TechSearch International
and
Dan Tracy, Sr. Director Industry Research, SEMI
20th/21st January 2016
Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials
Outlook Report-2015/2016 Edition
• Unique and comprehensive report covering the market size, regional markets,
market share, and forecast by packaging materials segment
• Packaging materials markets are quantified, new opportunities are
highlighted, and forecasts through 2019 are covered
Laminate Substrates
Liquid Encapsulants
Leadframes
Solder Balls
Mold Compounds
Wafer Level Packaging Dielectrics
Underfill
Thermal Interface Materials
Bonding Wire
Die Attach
• Based on in-depth interviews and surveys of 160+ companies, including
material suppliers, IDMs, packaging subcontractors, and fabless companies.
Outline
•
•
•
•
•
2016 Outlook Summary (Dan Tracy)
Market Driver: Mobility (Jan Vardaman)
FO-WLP: A Disruptive Technology (Jan Vardaman)
Material Segment Trends (Jan Vardaman/Dan Tracy)
Summary
2016 Outlook Summary
2016 Semiconductor Revenue Forecasts
Semico Research (Oct 15)
7.5%
Cowan LRA (Jan 16)
4.9%
VLSI Research (Oct 15)
4.3%
IC Insights (Jan 16)
4.0%
Gartner (Oct 15)
1.9%
WSTS (Dec 15)
IBS (Jan 16)
-5%
Source: SEMI
-3%
1.4%
-1.5%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
2016 Semiconductor Capex Outlook
Pacific Crest (Jan 16)
3.0%
• Moderate growth in foundry spend
• NAND investment driven by 3D
SEMI (Dec 15)
1.1%
IC Insights (Jan 16)
1.0%
• Expect lower spending for DRAM
• Some reduction in OSAT spending
-0.1% UBS (Nov 15)
-4.7% Gartner (Jan 16)
-6.3% VLSI Research (Dec 15)
-10%
Source: SEMI
-5%
0%
5%
Market Driver: Mobility
iPhone Trends: Increasing Number of WLPs
iPhone Evolution
30
13
12
25
11
10
15
9
10
8
5
7
0
6
1 /2007
3GS /2009
4S /2011
iPhone Model/year
iPhone 1
2007
2 WLPs
iPhone 3GS
2009
4 WLPs
Shown to scale
iPhone 4S
2011
7 WLPs
iPhone 5
2013
11+ WLPs
iPhone 5S
2013
22 WLPs
iPhone 6
2014
26+ WLPs
5 /2012
5S /2013
WLPs
6 /2014
6+ /2014
Thickness
iPhone 6 Plus
2014
26+ WLPs
Source: TechSearch International, Inc., adapted from TPSS.
Thickness (mm)
WLCSPs
20
It’s Not Just iPhones with Lots of WLPs……
• Samsung smartphones with WLPs
– 6 years ago, no WLPs
– Galaxy S6 has 13 WLPs on
main board
• Japanese domestic smartphones
– Sony Xperia Z4 has 13 WLPs
• China handset makers increasingly
using WLPs
– Huawei Ascend G620S has 4 WLPs
• On average 5 to 7 WLPs per
smartphone and the numbers continue
to increase……
Copper Pillar Demand on 300mm Wafers
• Industry is transitioning to Cu pillar just as it moved from evaporation to plating
• Advanced silicon technology nodes with flip chip designs
Drivers
• Finer bump pitch is challenging
with solder bump, underfilling
with smaller standoff is a
problem (Cu pillar can maintain
the standoff at reduced pitch)
29% average annual growth
• Electrical and thermal
performance advantages
Image from SK Hynix
Images from Micron
Image from Chipworks
2014
2015
2016
Source: TechSearch Interna onal, Inc.
2017
2018
2019
FO-WLP: A Disruptive Technology
Drivers for FO-WLP
• Smaller form factor, lower profile package: similar to
conventional WLP in profile (can be ≤0.4 mm)
• Thinner than flip chip package (no substrate)
– Enables low-profile PoP solution as large as 15mm x 15mm body
• Support increased I/O density
– Fine L/S (10/10µm)
– Roadmaps for <5/5µm L/S, future 2/2µm L/S
• Allows use of FO-WLP with advanced semiconductor
technology nodes and die shrinks
– With increased I/O and smaller die, can’t “fan-in” using
conventional WLP
Source: STATS ChipPAC.
– Smaller diameter balls and ball pitch ≤0.3mm board level
reliability issues (Qualcomm studies)
• Split die package or multi-die package/SiP
– Multiple die in package possible
– Die fabricated from different technology nodes can be
assembled in a single package
– Can integrate passives
• Excellent electrical and thermal performance
• Excellent high temperature warpage performance
Source: NANIUM
Multi-Die/SiP FO-WLP Solution
2 Layer-RDL Interconnection
2 Active Die + 10 Passives 0201 SMD
After Thin Film Processing,
Solder Ball Attach and Singulation
After Pick & Place
Source: NANIUM
After Molding
Application Processor Packaging Trends
• Thinner package and smaller footprint
– Today 1.0mm height requirement
– Future ≤0.8 mm
Today’s PoP (1.0mm)
• 3D IC with TSV provides ultimate in
package height reduction, but
continues to be pushed out
• Silicon interposers too expensive for
many mobile products
• PoP options in high-end smartphones
include
– Fan-out WLP with application processor as
bottom package
– Some new format (SWIFT, NTI, etc.)
• FO-WLP AP in bottom PoP
– Low profile
– High routing density
– Good thermal dissipation
– System integration with competitive cost
FO-WLP as Bottom PoP (<0.8mm)
FO-WLP Projections
• Early products included baseband processor (Infineon Wireless Division)
• Device types include RF such as Bluetooth, NFC, GPS, PMIC, automotive radar,
connectivity modules, future application processors from TSMC and others
• Many multi-die products
in future
• Planned adoption by many
companies, introductions
by many OSATs
• Potential for >5 billion
units in 2020
2015
2016
2017
Source: TechSearch International, Inc.
2018
2019
2020
Why is FO-WLP a Disruptive Technology?
• No substrate!
– Thin-film metallization used for substrate (can go below 5µm L/S)
– No traditional laminate substrate (with multiple die, reduction of multiple
substrates)
– No underfill required
– Most application processors had been using laminate substrate with flip chip
bump interconnect
• Multi-die configuration possible
– Could function as system-in-package
• Infrastructure changes
– All packaging can take place at the foundry
– OSAT assembly with non-traditional assembly line
– Changes the way the industry approaches package design
Material Segment Trends
Underfill Market
• Global market of ~$250M
• Many suppliers (30+)
– Consolidation likely though new players entering market
– Suppliers face continued price pressure
• No-flow
– Applied prior to chip placement, either on the wafer or substrate
– Film-based, paste, and wafer applied
• Growing use of mold compounds as underfill
• Increased use of board-level underfill or edge underfill for some BGAs,
CSPs, and WLPs
– Apple underfills almost everything above a certain size
– Micromax in India and many handset makers in China have almost no underfill
Source: SEMI and TechSearch International – Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook
Wafer Level Dielectrics
• ~$90M market currently
• Requirements for new materials include:
– Low moisture absorption (reduced outgassing at elevated temperatures)
– Low stress (to match the CTE of the chip) and/or low modulus (for less wafer bow)
– Low temperature cure (200 °C)
– Lower dielectric constant
– Higher resolution at thicker layers
– Wide process windows
– Enhanced board-level reliability performance
– Desire for “standard” material for multi-layer applications
Source: SEMI and TechSearch International – Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook
Laminate Substrates
• ~$7.8B market
• Stable supply base
• Good demand/supply balance in recent years
• Flip chip substrate suppliers
– Bump pitch trends drive finer features and higher substrate prices, but continued
price pressure
– Previously, focused on CPU and graphics applications
– Now, the focus is on mobile applications – growth market but more cost sensitive
and shorter development cycles
– Laminate CSP outlook expected to be impacted by growth in FO-WLP
Source: SEMI and TechSearch International – Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook
Leadframes
• ~$3B market
– Flat to declining revenues going
forward
– Low to moderate unit growth
overall
• QFN growing at ~12% CAGR
(2014-2019)
• Other IC leadframes at -1% CAGR
• 30+ suppliers worldwide (with
varying capabilities for stamping,
etching, and plating)
– Some consolidation/re-structuring
of the supplier base
– Significant number of suppliers with
a regional focus
• Need suppliers with strong capability in etching and with pre-plated/surface
treatments for adhesion promotion
Source: SEMI and TechSearch International – Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook
Bonding Wire
• ~$3B market, revenues to
further decline
– 20B meters shipped,
forecasted to increase
• Au wire at 41% shipments,
down from 99% in 2007
– Dropping to ~32% share
by 2019
• Improved Cu and Ag alloys
for low-looping and multi-die
applications
Source: SEMI and TechSearch International – Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook
Mold Compounds
• ~$1.2B market size
• Stable supply base, very
strong position maintained
by Japanese suppliers
• Focus on warpage control,
CTE properties, low moisture
absorption, and low Cl• Molded Underfill (MUF) for
some thin Cu pillar flip chip
packages
• High thermal conductive and high voltage
applications emerging
• Need for flexible mold compound
Source: SEMI and TechSearch International – Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook
Die Attach Materials
• ~$680M globally
– Roughly 50/50 between
paste and film
• Bondline control and fillet
formation are critical to yield
and reliability in a small, thin
form factor
– Critical to multi-die packaging
• Strong interest in CDAF and
other thermally enhanced solutions:
– Low-temperature (nano) sintered materials
– Transient Liquid Phase Sintering (TLPS) materials
Source: SEMI and TechSearch International – Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook
Summary
Summary
• 2016 Semiconductor Industry Outlook
– Low-single digit revenue growth
– Currently, Capex outlook ranges from negative to slightly positive
• Packaging a key enabler of functionality in the mobile space
• FO-WLP is a disruptive technology and will impact the
consumption of semiconductor packaging materials
• Material innovation focused on package integration and cost
reduction
Q&A
Thank you for participating in today’s webinar!
Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook Report-2015/2016 Edition
For more information, contact:
Jan Vardaman at TechSearch International, jan@techseachinc.com
Or
Dan Tracy at SEMI, dtracy@semi.org
To order the GSPMO report, visit: www.semi.org/en/node/58061
Or call SEMI customer service at 1.877.746.7788 (toll free in the U.S.) or
1.408.943.6901 (International Callers).