Chemical forecast
from NASA, U.Iowa & NCAR
2012-08-23
Arlindo DaSilva, NASA Goddard
Pablo Saide, Greg Carmichael, U. Iowa
Louisa Emmons, Mary Barth, Mijeong Park, NCAR
UIOWA model summary
• WRFv3.3.1, 12km horizontal resolution, 35 vertical
levels up to 50hPa, MYJ PBL, run continuously, FNL
meteo, 2 runs:
– Full chemistry: Lin MP, KF cumulus, CBMZ-MOSAIC 4 bin
with aerosol direct effect, no biomass burning, MACC
(assimilated, ECMWF) chemical boundary conditions
• Output: Full chemistry (O3, CO, NOx, VOC, etc.), Aerosol
mass (oc, bc, so4, nh4, no3, oin, na, cl, water) and number
resolved by size
– Tracer (no chemistry , no decay, no deposition), Morrison
MP, Grell Cumulus
• Tracers: Biomass burning (NCAR + Plume rise), Thailand,
China region, India region, East Thailand region (Vietnam),
West Thailand region (Nepal), South Thailand region
(Indonesia), shipping, degassing volcanoes, dust, sea salt,
MEGAN biogenics
• Emissions: INTEX-B 2006 0.5°x0.5° resolution, IIASA
2005 1x1° shipping, vertical and diurnal variation
for Area, Industry and Power.
• Plots: Pressure levels: 925, 850, 500, 200, 150,
100. Five cross sections
Topography, Cross-sections and
model domain
NCAR models: MOZART-4 and WRF-Tracer
MOZART-4, driven by GEOS-5 meteorology (global)
1) Full Chemistry: 1.9°x2.5° horiz resolution
2) Tracers only: 0.5°x0.6° horiz resolution
– Tracers with 25-day lifetime based on anthropogenic CO emissions (global and by region) and biomass
burning
– Soluble tracer with 25-day lifetime, global anthro CO emissions
– 5-day tracer, global anthro CO emissions
– Biogenic tracer, MEGAN isoprene emissions, 5-day lifetime
– Lightning NO tracer, 5-day lifetime
– Stratospheric ozone tracer
• Emissions: Anthro: Streets-ARCTAS; Fires: FINN (Wiedinmyer)
WRF with Tracers: 2 Domains: 20 & 4 km hor.resol.; top: 10 hPa
Physics:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Two moment cloud physics (modified Thompson et al., 2004)
Tiedtke scheme / No convective parameterization
Mellor-Yamada-Janjic PBL parameterization
NOAH land surface model
Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for long wave radiation
Goddard scheme for short wave radiation
Tracers:
– 1 tracer from the boundary layer everywhere in domain
– 2 tracers from the boundary layer for the Straits of Malacca region
(passive and 1-day lifetime tracers)
– 2 tracers from the mid-Troposphere region
– 2 tracers from the Stratosphere region
– 1 tracer from the production of lightning-NOx
Other NCAR products
FINN – Fire Inventory from NCAR (C.
Wiedinmyer)
Run in real-time using MODIS Rapid Response fire
counts (FIRMS from UMd)
Fire emissions for each fire, and gridded to 0.5 deg
Emissions for CO2, CO, NO, BC, OC, etc., and
speciated VOCs (MOZART, SAPRC, GEOS-chem
mechanisms)
MOPITT CO
Processed daily at NCAR, available within 8 hours of
overpass
Joint Thermal/Near IR retrievals of CO profiles
Global coverage in 3 days
IASI CO
Processed daily at NCAR
Thermal IR retrievals
Full global coverage twice a day
1. Anticyclone Transport
• Good opportunities over Nepal
• Big contributions from India
and China regions
China region contribution
Total CO full chemistry 150mb
India region contribution
1. Anticyclone Transport
Lightning NO
• Good opportunities over
Nepal
• Big contributions from India
and China regions
India Anthro (white line indicates source region)
E.Asia Anthro
2. Pollution over Northern
Bay of Bengal, Nepal
Anthro CO
• Iowa WRF has some transport from
India over BoB, but MZ4/GEOS5 does
not
• Pollution over Nepal mainly from India,
very mixed due to anticyclone
India contribution 850 hPa
Total CO full chemistry 850 hPa
3. Outflow from cumulus,
cloud processing
• Isolated convection over BoB and east of
Singapore
• Cumulus outflow from India, south Thailand,
and Biomass burning
India region contribution 150mb
Vertical velocity
Biomass Burning 150mb
Indonesia region 150mb
3. Outflow from cumulus,
cloud processing
Lightning NO
• Low values of soluble tracer
indicate extensive cloud
processing of air at 200 hPa
Anthro, 25-day tracer
Anthro, 25-day soluble tracer
3. Outflow from cumulus,
cloud processing
NCAR WRF-Tracer shows strongest
convection over S. Gulf of Thailand
Reflectivity (dBZ)
4. Tropospheric
chemistry source
characterization
• All at 850 mb
Dust tracer
CO full chemistry (non BB)
Volcano tracer
Biogenics tracer
Biomass burning tracer
4. Tropospheric chemistry
source characterization
• Anthro
• Fires
• Biogenics
Isoprene emissions tracer
Anthro tracer
Fire tracer
5. Ship track study
• Cross
section
west to east
through
Singapore
(103.75E)
• Sources
other than
shipping
dominate
pollution
• Low clouds
present
Indonesia region Tracer
Shipping Tracer
Biomass Burning Tracer
Volcano Tracer
6. TTL Cirrus heating rates
• Cirrus over clear water
on East BoB, east
Philippines, around Java
LWP
Cloud Incidence
IWP
7. Cirrus microphysics
• Extensive cirrus coverage
(model cloud fraction at
150mb)
• High number of Aerosol
Aerosol Number full chem
Cloud Incidence
Biomass Burning 150mb
8. Smoke radiative heating rates
13. Biomass burning
BB across Singapore
• Avoid convection close to
Singapore
CO BB 150 mb
CO BB 850 mb
8. Smoke radiative heating rates
13. Biomass burning
• Some burning on Borneo
CO Biomass Burning 150 mb
CO Biomass Burning 850 mb
10. Mixing into TTL
• Tropopause
height ~ 17km
over Utapao
(~100mb)
• Big China
Contribution
Water vapor 100mb Tracer run
Strat intrusion near
convected pollution?
China region 100mb
Water vapor 100mb FullChem run
11. ACE satellite retrievals
12. Aerosol retrievals through clouds
14. CALIPSO and CloudSat retrievals
• Aerosols and clouds
LWP+IWP, LWP contours
TOTAL AOD with contours at 500mb
AOD with cloud contours Across Utapao