Chapter 3: Strategic Capacity Management We will discuss … What is capacity? The concept of process capacity Capacity utilization Economies and diseconomies of scale Capacity balance Little's law Relating inventory, flow time, and flow rate Batch sizes and capacity Decision Trees Strategic Capacity Planning Capacity the ability to hold, receive, store, or accommodate. measures can (as opposed to does) Strategic capacity planning approach for determining the overall capacity level of capital intensive resources, including facilities, equipment, and overall labor force size. Examples?? Two Ways to Improve a Process Reduce excess capacity at some step in the process Lower the cost for the same output Use the capacity at an underutilized process step to increase the capacity at a bottleneck Increase the output at the same cost A bottleneck is the weakest link Process capacity = minimum {Res 1 capacity,. Res 2 capacity, …) Capacity Utilization Capacity utilization rate = Capacity used / Best operating level Capacity used rate of output actually achieved Best operating level capacity for which the process was designed Avg unit cost of output Underutilization Overutilization Best Operating Level Volume Example of Capacity Utilization During one week of production, a plant produced 83 units of a product. Its historic highest or best utilization recorded was 120 units per week. What is this plant’s capacity utilization rate? Answer: Capacity utilization rate = Capacity used . Best operating level = 83/120 =0.69 or 69% Economies & Diseconomies of Scale Economies of Scale and the Experience Curve working Average unit cost of output 100-unit plant 200-unit plant 300-unit plant 400-unit plant Diseconomies of Scale start working Volume Other Issues Capacity Focus The concept of the focused factory holds that production facilities work best when they focus on a fairly limited set of production objectives Plants Within Plants (PWP) Extend focus concept to operating level Capacity Flexibility Flexible processes Flexible workers Flexible plants Capacity Planning: Balance Unbalanced stages of production Units per month Stage 1 6,000 Stage 2 7,000 Stage 3 5,000 Maintaining System Balance: Output of one stage is the exact input requirements for the next stage Balanced stages of production Units per month Stage 1 Stage 2 6,000 6,000 Stage 3 6,000 Little’s Law What it is: Inventory (I) = Flow Rate (R) * Flow Time (T) Implications: • Out of the three performance measures (I,R,T), two can be chosen by management, the other is GIVEN by nature • Hold throughput (flow rate) constant: Reducing inventory = reducing flow time Patients 11 Cumulative Inflow 10 9 Cumulative Outflow 8 7 Flow Time 6 Inventory 5 4 3 2 Inventory=Cumulative Inflow – Cumulative Outflow 1 0 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 Time 16:00 17:00 Can be used in analyzing capacity issues! 18:00 Examples Suppose that from 12 to 1 p.m. 200 students per hour enter the GQ and Airline check-in data indicate from 9 each student is in the system for an to 10 a.m. 255 passengers checked average of 45 minutes. What is the in. Moreover, based on the number average number of students in the waiting in line, airport management GQ? found that on average, 35 people Inventory = Flow Rate * Flow Time = 200 per hour * 45 minutes (= 0.75 were waiting to check in. How long hours) did the average passenger have to = 150 students wait? If ten students on average are waiting in line for sandwiches and each is in line for five minutes, on average, how many students are arrive each hour for sandwiches? Flow Rate = Inventory / Flow Time = 10 Students / 5 minutes = 0.083 hour = 120 students per hour Flow Time = Inventory / Flow Rate = 35 passengers / 255 passengers per hour = 0.137 hours = 8.24 minutes The Impact of Batch Size on Capacity Production cycle Batch of 12 Production cycle Batch of 60 Batch of 120 Batch of 300 60 120 180 240 300 Time [minutes] Produce Part B (1 box corresponds to 12 units = 12 scooters) Set-up from Part A to Part B Produce Part A (1 box corresponds to 24 units = 12 scooters) Set-up from Part B to Part A Number Produced in 720 Min Batch Size Part A Part B 12 60 60 60 180 180 120 240 240 300 300 300 Capacity Analysis with Batching • Capacity calculation: Capacity given Batch Size= (in units/time) Batch Size Set-up time + Batch-size*Time per unit • Note: Capacity increases with batch size: 0.5 1/p Capacity 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 • Note further: … and so does inventory 650 610 570 530 490 450 410 370 330 290 250 210 170 130 90 10 0 50 0.05 Batch Size Process 1 Assembly process Set-up time, S 120 minutes Per unit time, p 2 minutes/unit 3 minutes/unit Capacity (B=12) 0.0833 units/min 0.33 units/minute Capacity (B=300) 0.4166 units/min 0.33 units/minute - Data about set-up times and batching Batch size = 12 Setup Batch size Per unit Capacity (per min) Capacity (per hour) Batch size = 300 120 0 120 0 12 12 300 300 2 3 2 3 0.083 0.333 0.417 0.333 5 20 25 20 Process Capacity (per hour) 5 20 Capacity 0.5 1/p 0.45 0.4 0.35 Capacity of slowest step other than the one requiring set-up 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 Batch size is too small, process capacity could be increased (set-up step is at the bottleneck) 650 610 570 530 490 450 410 370 330 290 250 210 170 90 130 50 10 0 Batch Size Batch size is too large, could be reduced with no negative impact on process capacity (set-up is not at the bottleneck) Figure : Choosing a “good” batch size B/[S+B*p] = k implies that B = S*k / (1 – p*k) Problem STEP 1 1 20 Act Time in min/part Setup Time in min STEP 2 2 0 STEP 3 1.5 0 Part a: What is the capacity for a batch size = 50? part a Batch is: Capacity of Resource (parts/min) parts/hour (minutes/part) 50 0.714 0.500 0.667 42.9 30.0 40.0 1.4 2 1.5 Capacity is 0.5 parts/min or 30 parts/hour Part b: For a batch size of 10, what is the bottleneck part b Batch is: Capacity of Resource (parts/min) 10 0.333 0.500 0.667 Step 1 is bottleneck What batch size should be chosen to smooth the flow? Process Utilization and Capacity Utilization Process Utilization = Flow Rate / Process Capacity Example: Tom can process 100 forms per day and he actually processes 70 forms. Process utilization = ?? Utilization of resource = Flow rate / Capacity of resource Process 400 items per hour Capacities of resources (items/hour): Resource 1: 500 implies utilization of 80% Resource 2: 450 implies utilization of 89% Resource 3: 600 implies utilization of 67% Bottleneck is the resource with the lowest capacity and the highest utilization Bottleneck is ?? Decision Trees Used to structure complex decision problems Use expected return criteria Consider probabilities of occurrence of events Use: chance nodes (denoted by circles ) decision (or choice) nodes (denoted by squares) Use a concept of “folding back” to arrive at the best policy Example of a Decision Tree Problem A glass factory specializing in crystal is experiencing a substantial backlog, and the firm's management is considering three courses of action: A) Arrange for subcontracting B) Construct new facilities C) Do nothing (no change) The correct choice depends largely upon demand, which may be low, medium, or high. By consensus, management estimates the respective demand probabilities as 0.1, 0.5, and 0.4. Example of a Decision Tree Problem (Continued): The Payoff Table The management also estimates the profits when choosing from the three alternatives (A, B, and C) under the differing probable levels of demand. These profits, in thousands of dollars are presented in the table below: A B C 0.1 Low 10 -120 20 0.5 Medium 50 25 40 0.4 High 90 200 60 Example of a Decision Tree Problem (Continued): Step 1. We start by drawing the three decisions A B C Example of Decision Tree Problem (Continued): Step 2. Add our possible states of nature, probabilities, and payoffs High demand (0.4) Medium demand (0.5) Low demand (0.1) A High demand (0.4) B C Medium demand (0.5) Low demand (0.1) High demand (0.4) Medium demand (0.5) Low demand (0.1) $90k $50k $10k $200k $25k -$120k $60k $40k $20k Example of Decision Tree Problem (Continued): Step 3. Determine the expected value of each decision High demand (0.4) Medium demand (0.5) $62k Low demand (0.1) $90k $50k $10k A EVA=0.4(90)+0.5(50)+0.1(10)=$62k Example of Decision Tree Problem (Continued): Step 4. Make decision High demand (0.4) $62k A B $80.5k Medium demand (0.5) Low demand (0.1) High demand (0.4) Medium demand (0.5) Low demand (0.1) C High demand (0.4) $46k Medium demand (0.5) Low demand (0.1) $90k $50k $10k $200k $25k -$120k $60k $40k $20k Alternative B generates the greatest expected profit, so our choice is B or to construct a new facility Problem 2 Owner of a small firm wants to purchase a PC for billing, payroll, client records Need small systems now -larger maybe later Alternatives: Small: No expansion capabilities @ $4000 Small: expansion @6000 Larger system @ $9000 After 3 years small systems can be traded in for a larger one @ $7500 Expanded @ $4000 Future demand is Likelihood of needing larger system later is 0.80 What system should he buy? Problem 2 L: .8 S: .2 9,000 9,000 9,000 10,000 Large 10,000 Need large 9,000 Exp Exp Trade-in L: .8 S: .2 13,500 6,000 9,200 Small 11,500 Trade-in Need large L: .8 S: .2 10,000 4,000 11,500