Massachusetts Telecommunications Symposium Broadband Overview John L. Toccalino Director Integrated Networks 913.458.7995 913.220.5330 Mobile Toccalinoj @bv.com Multiple Definitions Broadband The capability of supporting, in both the provider-to-consumer (downstream) and the consumer-to-provider (upstream) directions, a speed in excess of 200 kilobits per second (kbps) in the last mile FCC 1999 Telecommunications Act Deployment Report 07/26/04 Page - 2 “High-speed” Services with over 200 kbps capability in at least one direction. The term highspeed services includes advanced telecommunications capability The International Telecommunications Union’s (ITU) defines broadband service as 1.5 Mbps Speed Equals Time Downloading the DVD Movie “The Matrix” 7.8 GB Minutes Hours Modem 56 kbps Days 13 days Pony Express 11 days** ISDN 128 kbps 5 ½ days Cable Modem 1.5 Mbps 11 hrs 36 min T-1 1.54 Mbps 11 hrs 12 min 10 hrs* PON OC-3/32 3 hrs 36 min DSL 8.5 Mbps 2 hrs 12 min PON OC-12/32 Gigabit Ethernet 53.6 min 1000 Mbps 1 min * from New York, NY 10005 – delivered to Beverly Hills, CA 90210 07/26/04 Page - 3 ** extrapolated from record: 7 days 17 hrs - approx 2000 miles from St. Joseph, Missouri to Sacramento, California Lincoln's Inaugural Address, March 4, 1861 Where are We Connecting? New World (Wide Packets) Order Long Haul Intercontinental & Coast to Coast Over Fiber at 10 Gbps & up (Long Haul DWDM, SONET, ATM & Ethernet) Long Haul: Metro/ Access: LAN: 07/26/04 Page - 4 Metro Network: Intra City or Metro Network All over Fiber at 1Gbps 10 Gbps (Short Haul DWDM, SONET, Gigabit Ethernet) Long Haul Metro/Access Access Network: Network connections to customer, Last Mile (Access Network: Fast & Gigabit Ethernet , T-1, DSL and Cable modems) Desktop to Desktop – Floor to Floor 10 Mbps 1Gbps (Ethernet & ATM) Copyright © World Wide Packets 2002 their respective owners All trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of Technology Futures, Inc. (2001) 07/26/04 Page - 5 The typical household of 2015 subscribes to broadband service at 24 Mb/s to100 Mb/s, Small businesses will access the network at data rates up to 622 Mb/s. Medium and large businesses will access the network directly with fiber at data rates from 2.4 Gb/s to 40 Gb/s. By 2015, most customers obtain voice and narrowband data service via wireless or VoIP on broadband channels. In 2015, fiber dominates the outside plant, comprising 100% of the interoffice network, 97% of the feeder network, and 95% of the distribution network. Massachusetts Telecommunications Symposium "The communities that are becoming more successful have broadband” John Irwin, Legislative Oregon Telecom Coordinating Council John L. Toccalino Black & Veatch “Fiber Sweet Fiber” Optically-enabled communities, now number 128, mid-May Fiber-to-theHome (FTTH) Council and the Telecommunications Industry Association. Thirty-six communities representing a cross-section of America were added to the list since September 2003. More than half of these deployments are confined to neighborhood developments, but a significant percentage (30 percent) extend throughout a municipality and a few (3 percent) throughout entire counties. The new analysis also shows an increase in FTTH subscribers, with average subscriber rates exceeding 40 percent overall and more than 75 percent in some communities. Since launching its FTTH network in St. Marys, Ohio, for example, CLEC TSC has experienced a 75 percent subscription rate. TSC overbuilt the pre-existing copper network to provide high-speed Internet, telephone and cable television service to this city of approximately 9,000 people. “This technology offers the most advanced communications in the world,” says St. Marys Mayor Greg Freewalt in a press statement. “We are confident it will help attract new businesses to our community.” 06/01/2004 07/26/04 Page - 7 Morristown Utility Service - Fiber-Optic Services to All 16,000 Subscribers in Hamblen County. Morristown Mayor Gary R. Johnson says if MUS captures all 16,000 customers, Hamblen County customers will save a total of $2 million each year. "We will be putting $2 million back into the community," Johnson said this morning. "This will be a fabulous opportunity for us. This is a wonderful occasion for Morristown and Hamblen County. Hamblen County Mayor, David Purkey: "When you have a lack of competition in any sector, the sole provider tends to get a little lax, and that's what I think happened," 07/26/04 Page - 8 Spanish Fork, UT – Set Apart 07/26/04 Page - 9 With a service area of 6,700 homes, Spanish Fork is currently at 50% cable and 30% Internet penetration rates. But that number is rising despite some tough competition from the incumbent service provider, Comcast, Bowcut said. In addition to its customer service policy, Bowcut said Spanish Fork set itself apart from the incumbent by also providing something only a local company could provide - a community channel. It is the Future – NKC, MO North Kansas City council members approved the merits of the study, an early step in a project that eventually would allow the city to provide an infrastructure and possibly outsource for television, high-speed Internet and cable services. "It is the future and it's a bold step," said Gene Bruns, mayor pro-tem. "I think that we need to take advantage of this opportunity." April 21, 2004 07/26/04 Page - 10 Cities of Powell and Ten Sleep to Get Fiber-Optic Broadband 07/26/04 Page - 11 Both communities are in the process of getting 100 percent fiber broadband telecommunications systems direct to homes and businesses through TRI TEL/TCT West - a Basin-based company that is making a practice of keeping locals ahead of the times. “Major milestone, …. improve health care, education and the overall quality of life for the community. With almost 30 percent of the local economy powered by education, health and social services (retail and agriculture taking second and third places), broadband will make a difference in the way Powell does business-quickly.” July 13, 2004 Provo Moves Ahead with iProvo Project The Provo City Council approved going forward with a process that will culminate in the issuance of up to $39.5 million in bonds to provide a city-wide municipal broadband network. December 03, 2003 Provo, Utah, Mayor Lewis Billings signed a contract with Video Internet Broadcasting to provide residents with voice, video and data services over the fiber network, called iProvo. The power company is among the nation's first municipal networks to wholesale access to its fiber communications network. July 16,2004 07/26/04 Page - 12 “Think Web Access is No Picnic? Think Again” GLENWOOD SPRINGS - In less than a week, a walk in the park could turn into a cruise down the information superhighway. All you need is a wireless computer. Free wireless Internet access will be available at three of the city's parks Sayre, Veltus and Centennial - and soon after that Two Rivers Park will go live. July 19, 2004 07/26/04 Page - 13 Countywide Wireless – Dickenson, VA 07/26/04 Page - 14 Dickenson County VA is the first county in the state to use countywide wireless broadband services and the first to use WiFi technology for this purpose. "DCWIN will enhance the health, safety and education for the residents of Southwest Virginia," said Mark Cvetnich, E911 manager and director of operations for DCWIN. Orlando, FL – Haven for Wireless Email 07/26/04 Page - 15 Lake Eola Park is a haven for joggers, dog walkers and now, email addicts. For the six-month trial run, Orlando taxpayers are forking over $1,800 a month, at a time when the city has recently laid off employees. But Mayor Buddy Dyer insists it's not only worth it, it's also imperative in the neverending quest to develop downtown, and attract the so-called "young urban professional." Free Wireless Everywhere – San Francisco, CA 07/26/04 Page - 16 It sounds like every broadband Internet service provider's fantasy, but it's maybe not as far-fetched as it seems. Over the last year or so, small, gray plastic boxes have begun appearing atop homes and businesses around San Francisco. Roof by roof, they're bringing Kahle's vision of ubiquitous wireless-network access closer to reality -- no telephone companies or cable providers required. Roughly 1,000 users have already logged on to the network anonymously. January 23, 2004 HBC Tests ‘Plug-In' Cable TV 07/26/04 Page - 17 In the very near future, every electrical outlet in the house could provide high speed Internet access, if a new technology being tested by Winona's Hiawatha Broadband Communications proves viable. HBC and Rochester Public Utilities announced they will work together to test offering broadband communications over existing power lines in Rochester homes. Winona Daily News IdaCorp - Broadband Connectivity Over Powerline One utility company that is getting serious about delivering broadband connectivity over powerline is Idacorp, which has begun several trials of the technology through its Idacomm subsidiary. "The technology is coming of age now, as opposed to even six months ago," said Idacomm spokesman Cameron Christian. "The costs are falling and the technology is improving.“ January 19, 2004 07/26/04 Page - 18 Massachusetts Telecommunications Symposium Why the Engagement? Price Hikes 07/26/04 Page - 20 Comcast Corp., which late last month said it would raise the price of its standard cable service an average of 6.5 percent in New England, will also increase the price of several of its digital cable television packages next year -- in one case by 9.1 percent. Metro Detroit cable bills balloon, Comcast fees up 14.6% in some areas; WOW! rates rise too Better Broadband Access Would Create 81,500 Texas Jobs 07/26/04 Page - 21 The widespread rollout of broadband Internet technology would create 81,500 jobs in Texas and boost the state's economy by $36 billion, according to a recent study. Yankee Group Study Says Broadband Plays Crucial Role 07/26/04 Page - 22 Broadband proves valuable in areas such as homeland security, distance learning and telehealth. However, the Yankee Group report, "Municipalities, Schools and Hospitals Reap Broadband's Benefits," finds many areas still have poor access to information infrastructure and broadband services. Consumers Pay Lower Rates and Enjoy a Higher Quality of Service 07/26/04 Page - 23 The evidence is clear that when there is competition among cable providers, consumers pay lower rates and enjoy a higher quality of service. Ameritech also reports that its competition with cable companies led Time Warner to cut its rates for the most popular channels it offers–CNN, ESPN, and MTV–by 5% in Wayne, Michigan. Ameritech also added nine channels. In Berkley, Michigan, prices dropped by 29% when TCI (now owned by AT&T) saw it would be facing competition. Mackinac Center for Public Policy Channel Choice - A La Carte Line Up Time may have come for ordering channels a la carte - Congress, consumers push for paying only for what you want USA TODAY 07/26/04 Page - 24 Other Nations Zip by USA in High-Speed Net Race Despite its economic and political might, the USA is falling behind other nations in arming consumers and small businesses with a key economic tool: high-speed Internet access, also known as broadband. The USA ranks 11th worldwide in broadband use, according to a recent United Nations report, behind such places as South Korea, Hong Kong and Iceland. USA TODAY 1/18/2004 07/26/04 Page - 25 Kuala Lumpur 07/26/04 Page - 26 Government to push for better broadband penetration 07 July, 2004 Kuala Lumpur: The Government will push forward for a better broadband penetration rate in order to create the critical mass, which will later encourage the private sector to enhance their investment here. Minister of Energy, Water and Communications Datuk Seri Dr Lim Keng Yaik “We cannot depend solely on the private sector to provide this broadband access because it is going to be too slow,” he told reporters after officiating the Information Technology Governance 2004 conference here, Tuesday. Japan Aims To Become World's Broadband Hub 07/26/04 Page - 27 Japan is discussing with the United Nations on its ambitious plan to build a region-wide broadband network across Asia by 2010 “Japan's information infrastructure initiative will likely have a far-reaching economic effect through the region ….Japan is leading ahead in broadband competition, injecting staggering amounts of funds into building such infrastructure as FTTH and IPv6," said the Ministry of Information and Communication. "We have crafted countermoves, which include setting up of a broadband communications network, extending the Trans Euro-Asia Network to Malaysia and reinforcing Korea-China-Japan cooperation in IPv6 standardization." South Korea Government Investment 07/26/04 Page - 28 South Korea's $50 billion program first linked 80 major cities and towns with superfast cable. Then, the government launched high-speed video services, such as telemedicine. Private enterprise followed. Business at Edumoa, started in 1994, soared two years ago after 1,200 elementary schools got broadband. The Seoul elearning firm supplies schools with electronic textbooks, animated science education and online testing. Massachusetts Telecommunications Symposium Process - Drivers, Plans and Strategies Network Drivers Planning Process Strategies Pros and Cons What Drives the Network? 07/26/04 Page - 30 Economic Development Value Add to Residents Pent-Up Demand Economic Development 07/26/04 Page - 31 Cedar Falls / Waterloo, IA Osborne, KS Erie, PA Martinsville, VA Osborne, KS Mayor George Eakin believes the highspeed network already has helped retain jobs in the community. "For Osborne Industries and for a local chemical wholesaler and seed packaging plant, the high-speed network has meant that sales and engineering could stay here, rather than being farmed out elsewhere," says Eakin. 07/26/04 Page - 32 Erie, PA 07/26/04 Page - 33 125 Erie, Pa.-Area Firms Sign Up for Business Broadband Service "The response has been terrific," said Ike Mutlu, general manager of the Armstrong service in Meadville. "It (high-speed Internet) is selling itself.“ Martinsville, VA 07/26/04 Page - 34 Governor Mark R. Warner today announced that MZM, Inc. has selected the City of Martinsville's Clearview Shell Building for a database and information technology operation. "The city's multi-year investment in the Clearview Business Park, the shell building and our broadband MINET fiber optic network has paid off," said Martinsville Mayor M. Gene Teague. Benefits to Residents 07/26/04 Page - 35 Ameritech also reports that its competition with cable companies led Time Warner to cut its rates for the most popular channels it offers–CNN, ESPN, and MTV–by 5% in Wayne, Michigan. Ameritech also added nine channels. In Berkley, Michigan, prices dropped by 29% when TCI (now owned by AT&T) saw it would be facing competition. Lack of real competition is costing the public at least $4.5 billion a year, according to a consumer group analysis of the cable industry or $80 per household per year. Pent-Up Demand A resident of the southeast end of town, Mr. Macdonald vented his exasperation with the archaic state of Westport's cable and phone communications systems in a full-page advertisement in Shorelines on Sept. 11. "Lagos, Nigeria has better communications than we do.“ 07/26/04 Page - 36 To provide broadband (high speed Internet) to all Oregonians, reducing the gap between "the have's and the have not's," with the intent of building a better economy and future is one goal of a measure "Oregon Broadband Policy." The Planning Process Goal Conception Fact Find Community Solution Financial Feasibility 07/26/04 Page - 37 Conceptual Design Detailing the Process Fact Finding Demand Analysis Current Providers Public/Private Partners Existing Assets Situation Based Conceptual Design Conceptual System Design and Cost Potential Phases Financial Assessment 07/26/04 Page - 38 Economic Analysis Funding Demand Analysis – Bandwidth Requirements 07/26/04 Page - 39 Demand Analysis - Primary and Secondary Research Primary Research Secondary Research Analysis TABLE A3-5 DISCOUNT IMTS INDEX PRICES FOR LONG-DISTANCE CALLS -BASE CASE (PRICE PER MINUTE ($)) Country Pairs U.S. to Canada AT&T MCI Sprint U.S. to Mexico AT&T MCI Sprint U.S. to United Kingdom AT&T MCI Sprint U.S. to Germany AT&T MCI Sprint U.S. to France AT&T MCI Sprint U.S. to Italy AT&T MCI Sprint U.S. to Japan AT&T MCI Sprint U.S. to Dominican Republic AT&T MCI Sprint 1991 --0.394 1992 1993 1994 --0.394 -0.388 0.416 0.410 0.400 0.425 --1.177 --1.177 --1.184 1.204 1.166 1.212 ---- --0.758 -0.748 0.846 0.758 0.748 0.846 --0.809 --0.809 -0.811 0.809 --0.799 --0.820 -0.805 0.825 0.815 0.805 0.825 -0.868 0.878 0.974 0.964 0.950 --0.823 --1.038 -1.022 1.038 1.085 1.022 1.070 ---- ---- -0.938 -- 1.020 1.010 -- Notes: For Canada, M exico, and the Dominican Republic, the calling pattern distribution is 40%standard, 30%discount, and 30%economy. For the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, and Japan, the calling pattern distribution is 30%standard, 50%discount, and 20%economy. Phone or Mail Surveys Case Studies of Other Focus Groups Community Network Providers One-on-One Interviews Gather Demographic Data 0.947 0.811 0.809 --0.802 --1.038 IWATS INDEX PRICES FOR LONG-DISTANCE CALLS -BASE CASE (PRICE PER MINUTE ($)) Country Pairs U.S. to Canada AT&T MCI Sprint U.S. to Mexico AT&T MCI Sprint U.S. to United Kingdom AT&T MCI Sprint U.S. to Germany AT&T MCI Sprint U.S. to France AT&T MCI Sprint U.S. to Italy AT&T MCI Sprint U.S. to Japan AT&T MCI Sprint U.S. to Dominican Republic AT&T MCI Sprint 1991 1992 1993 1994 0.520 0.494 0.489 0.520 0.500 0.489 0.541 0.546 0.511 0.549 0.590 0.533 1.387 1.373 1.389 1.387 1.373 1.389 1.423 1.384 1.408 1.490 1.449 1.424 0.877 0.833 -- 0.877 0.841 0.842 0.912 0.939 0.908 0.953 1.015 0.908 1.023 0.971 -- 1.023 0.980 0.989 1.062 1.094 1.068 1.147 1.182 1.110 0.996 0.947 -- 0.996 0.956 0.963 1.035 1.066 0.920 1.118 1.152 0.955 1.003 0.953 -- 1.003 0.962 0.961 1.041 1.074 1.043 1.126 1.160 1.084 1.410 1.339 -- 1.410 1.353 1.340 1.464 1.509 1.452 1.582 1.631 1.507 1.029 0.998 -- 1.029 0.998 1.004 1.069 1.101 1.065 1.155 1.190 1.107 Notes: For Canada, M exico, and the Dominican Republic, the calling pattern distribution is 85%standard, 10%discount, and 5%economy. For the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, the calling pattern distribution is 60%standard, 20%discount, and 20%economy. For Japan the calling pattern distribution is 75%standard and 25%discount. Market Demographics Analysis Business Plan Variables Research Focus Residents Businesses 07/26/04 Page - 40 School Administrators Health Care Providers First Responders Existing Providers Existing Assets Other Communities Associations Fiber Transport 07/26/04 Page - 41 POPs, Regen Sites Utility Assets ROW Ordinances, Franchise Agreements Applicable Technologies Typical Speed Pros Cons 07/26/04 Page - 42 Broadband over Powerline DSL Fixed Wireless Free Space Optics HFC Satellite 500Kbps – 3.0 Mbps 500 Kbps – 4.0 Mbps Symmetric FTTX Wireless LAN (802.11) ISDN 100 Kbps - 8 Mbps 500 Kbps - 8 Mbps 15 Mbps 155 Mbps 15 Mbps 100 Mbps 1.5 - 100 Mbps 100 Kbps 54 Mbps 60 Kbps 200 Kbps Asymmetric Asymmetric Asymmetric Symmetric Symmetri c Symmetric Symmetric Symmetric Ease of Installation Quickly Upgradeable Rural Accessible Existing Infrastructure (Copper Loop) Licensed Coordinated Frequencies NonLicensed "Future Proof" Easy Deployment Existing Infrastructu re (some COs) Existing Infrastruct. Typically Existing Infrastructure Limited Field Trials Shared Bandwidth Emerging NonLicensed Limited Bandwidth Interferenc e from nearby HF Xtransmit Often Upgrade Required Dedicated Link Often UniDirectional Distance Sensitivity Poor Plant or Device Removal (Load Coils) Excellent Short Range Media Weather Sensitivity at Higher Frequencies Weather Sensitive Security, Short Range Economic Analysis ..\..\..\Desktop\Financial Model Sample.xls 07/26/04 Page - 43 Funding 07/26/04 Page - 44 Economic Development Grants RUS Broadband Funds E-Rate Bonds Venture Capital Strategies 07/26/04 Page - 45 Public/Private Partnership Joint Ownership Anchor Tenant Wholesale Network Retail Provider Public/Private Network 07/26/04 Page - 46 Institutional Users Cooperating to Own Strand, Private Providers Serving Businesses/Residences Dark Fiber Provided by Public Sector, Private Service Provider for Managed Services Public Sector Consolidating Usage Publicly Owned Network 07/26/04 Page - 47 Wholesale vs. Retail Best Fit – Infrastructure or Providing Competitive Services Municipal Services Monopolistic in Nature (police, garbage collection, water) Retail vs. Wholesale Value Chain 07/26/04 Page - 48 A Few Pros and Cons Retail Pros Increased Revenue Wholesale Local ISP Provider Benefit Greater Control Improve Competition Brand Name Security Reduced Operations Cost Profit Flexibility Less Staff Reduced Customer Cost Cons Incumbent Resistance High Incumbent Resistance High Increased Staff Reputation Risk Greater Performance Risk Reduced Revenue 07/26/04 Page - 49 Loss of Control Summary 07/26/04 Page - 50 Lots of Activity Reasons Why Economic Development Poor Service Increased Prices Lack of Choice Process