The State of the Church in North Carolina 1990-2000 Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 1 This is a Sample Presentation It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the Christian church in North Carolina, and what the complete “State of the Church in North Carolina” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss together the missional challenges in North Carolina that the Church faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for immediate download at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UNC20.htm © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 2 In 1996, polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group. For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 3 The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions: “How Many People Really Attend Church in North Carolina Every Week?” “Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or Backwards in Influence in North Carolina?” As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in North Carolina will begin to take shape. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 4 This study uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. North Carolina has an average church attendance percentage (22.7%) much higher than the national average (18.7%). © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 5 Percentage of Population Attending a Christian Church on any Given Weekend 2000 11.8% 14.0% NH WA 17.5% 11.2% 13.2% 29.4% MT 23.2% ND ME VT MN 14.5% OR 14.4% 11.4% 24.6% 28.0% ID 14.0% NY WI SD 20.6% WY 20.3% CA 20.3% 15.2% UT IL CO 22.7% KS AZ 21.7% IN WV 22.1% MO OK NM 22.7% NC TN 25.0% 28.6% 16.0% DC DE 17.7% MD 23.3% SC 26.7% MS TX 18.0% VA KY AR 19.1% CT NJ 17.4% 21.5% 22.0% 17.8% 16.0% OH 23.5% 14.3% 17.2% PA IA 3.1% NV RI 20.5% 24.7% NE 14.8% 20.1% MI 23.8% 9.7% MA 15.5% 26.9% 23.3% GA AL 29.4% LA 15.1% AK 15.1% 13.4% HI 0.0% to 14.4% 14.4% to 17.5% 17.5% to 20.6% 20.6% to 23.5% 23.5% to 29.4% © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use FL 6 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in North Carolina. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 7 27.0% 24.3% 45.0% Watauga Ashe 29.0% 27.4% Yancey 18.5% Mitchell 26.2% Wilkes Avery 27.1% 24.5% 27.6% Haywood Caldwell Madison 22.7% 21.8% 27.1% McDowell Buncombe Swain 20.9% Burke 14.8% Graham 21.9% 28.0% Macon 22.8% Cherokee 34.4% Transylvania 26.3% 36.6% 17.7% Clay Jackson 28.8% Polk Henderson 24.1% 24.3% Surry Stokes 23.0% Yadkin 33.1% Alexander 22.4% 25.0% Iredell Catawba 21.6% Lincoln 24.4% 21.5% Rockingham Caswell 27.4% Forsyth 18.6% 20.7% Lee Stanly 29.0% 19.2% Montgomery Moore 24.3% Franklin 41.7% 13.4% Union Anson Hoke 25.9% 18.0% Edgecombe 24.8% 24.8% 53.3% Perquimans Tyrrell Washington 34.4% 15.9% Chowan Dare Beaufort 29.4% Hyde 24.2% Craven 27.1% 29.9% Sampson 36.4% Greene Lenoir 21.0% 24.2% Pamlico Jones 21.7% Duplin 13.5% 21.0% Onslow 27.3% Scotland 23.4% Richmond Robeson Pasquotank 24.1% Martin 37.0% Pitt Wayne 26.8% Harnett Currituck 24.3% 37.8% 21.1% Wilson Johnston 13.8% Gates Bertie 34.8% 17.4% 20.4% 17.3% 24.0% Halifax Nash Wake Cumberland 23.6% 27.7% Camden 26.5% Durham 20.8% 23.2% 27.2% 24.6% Hertford 17.9% Chatham Randolph Cleveland Gaston Mecklenburg Warren 22.7% Rowan Cabarrus Person Alamance 16.6% Northampton 20.5% Orange 22.2% Guilford 19.5% Davidson 28.9% 29.1% 13.5% 24.3% 21.7% Davie 16.8% 30.5% Rutherford 25.3% 27.9% 19.8% Granville Vance Alleghany 19.5% 27.5% Bladen Carteret 15.1% Pender 24.6% North Carolina Counties 2000 Percentage of Population at Christian Churches Beige = Higher Rose = Medium Blue = Lower Columbus 15.4% Brunswick 22.2% New Hanover 0.0% to 21.8% 21.8% to 26.5% 26.5% to 54.3% © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 8 The Next 2 Maps show the population numbers for each county in North Carolina. The first map shows the population of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 - 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 9 10,677 42,695 Watauga 15,687 17,774 Avery 7,993 24,298 Cherokee 22,601 6,885 Hertford Camden Ashe 65,632 Wilkes 71,219 44,711 Surry Stokes 36,348 91,928 23,501 35,623 Rockingham Caswell Person 19,972 Warren 306,067 57,370 Gates Halifax 118,227 47,260 19,773 Orange Franklin 4,149 Guilford Bertie 223,314 87,420 33,603 130,800 55,606 54,033 29,811 Tyrrell Caldwell Alexander Durham Alamance Davie 147,246 Nash Edgecombe 13,723 Haywood 627,846 Madison 19,635 122,660 29,967 Davidson Washington 89,148 130,454 49,329 73,814 141,685 Iredell Martin Wake 25,593 Dare 206,330 130,340 133,798 Chatham Randolph Wilson 44,958 12,968 Catawba McDowell Burke 121,965 Buncombe Rowan Pitt 5,826 63,780 18,974 Beaufort Swain 49,040 Johnston 131,063 Lincoln Hyde 91,025 113,329 Greene Lee 58,100 Cabarrus 18,324 96,287 26,822 190,365 74,769 Harnett Wayne 59,648 91,436 Stanly 29,334 Polk Cleveland Gaston Montgomery Moore 12,934 Lenoir 42,151 Craven 302,963 Transylvania 62,899 10,381 Pamlico Macon 89,173 Cumberland 60,161 Rutherford 25,275 123,677 33,646 Jones 695,454 49,063 Henderson Sampson 33,121 Union 8,775 Anson Hoke Mecklenburg Duplin 150,355 Jackson Clay 35,998 Onslow 46,564 Scotland 59,383 123,339 32,278 Richmond Carteret Robeson 41,082 Bladen Yancey Graham Northampton 10,516 24,384 Mitchell 17,167 22,086 48,498 42,954 Granville Vance Alleghany 77,415 North Carolina Counties 2000 Population Yadkin Forsyth 421,048 18,190 Currituck 34,897 Pasquotank 11,368 Perquimans 34,835 14,526 Chowan Pender 54,749 Columbus 160,307 73,143 Brunswick New Hanover 0 to 50,000 50,000 to 100,000 100,000 to 695,455 © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 10 Complete Presentation has Map of 2000 Population Growth for Each County The Next 2 Slides show the ethnicity of North Carolina in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 12 1990 Ethnicity of North Carolina Asian 1% Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic 1% Hispanic Asian Non-Hispanic Black 22% Non-Hispanic White 76% © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 13 Complete Presentation has Graph of 2000 Ethnicity North Carolina 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in an Ethnic Group's Percentage of the Population 400.0% 352.2% 350.0% 300.0% 250.0% 200.0% 119.1% 150.0% 100.0% 50.0% 0.0% -6.6% -0.4% -50.0% Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use Asian 15 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in North Carolina in 1990 and 2000. All groups have increased in attendance over the last decade. Unfortunately, as overall worship attendance has declined, the population has grown. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph. This graph reflects a significant decrease in the percentage of the population attending church, with the exception of Catholic churches. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 16 North Carolina Worship Attendance - 1990 & 2000 2,000,000 1,826,932 1,800,000 1,587,699 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,213,004 1,200,000 1,073,772 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 413,673 447,653 400,000 163,359 97,575 200,000 © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 2000 Total 1990 Total 2000 Catholic 1990 Catholic 2000 Mainline 1990 Mainline 2000 Evangelical 1990 Evangelical - 17 Complete Presentation has Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship Percentage by Category The Next Graph is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2000. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in North Carolina in 1990 and 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 19 North Carolina 2000 Weekly Worship Attendance 15.1% 5.6% 2.0% Evangelical Mainline Catholic Absent 77.3% © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 20 North Carolina - Change in Worship Attendance as a Percentage of Population 1990-2000 37.9% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -5.2% -7.0% -10.9% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% Evangelical Mainline Catholic © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use Total 21 The 3 Next Charts show the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in North Carolina. The first chart illustrates the large influence of the Baptist church. The second and third charts show significant growth in the Pentecostal and Catholic churches. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 22 Complete Presentation has Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families North Carolina 1990-2000 Increase or Decline in the Percentage of the Population Attending Churches by "Denominational Family" 37.9% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 11.3% 10.0% 0.0% -6.8% -10.0% -8.4% -9.0% -8.9% -11.0% -13.9% -20.0% Baptist Methodist Lutheran Reformed Pentecostal Christian © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use Catholic Other 25 The Next Chart shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both this state and the nation. The second chart shows the 1990 & 2000 population per church for this state and the nation. Among states in 2000, Arkansas has the lowest population per church with 411 people per church, Utah is the highest at 4,586 people per church. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 26 1990 & 2000 North Carolina Average Church Attendance 1,000 908 900 794 794 800 700 600 558 1990 North Carolina 2000 North Carolina 500 1990 US Average 2000 US Average 400 300 172 175 200 119 130 124 131 120 104 118 112 115 137 100 Evangelical Mainline Catholic © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use Total 27 Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Population per Church for State and Nation The Next 3 Maps show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in North Carolina in 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 29 Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage for each County Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage for each County 0.8% 1.0% 0.1% Granville Vance Alleghany 1.3% 0.6% Watauga Ashe 0.7% 0.6% Yancey Avery 1.0% 0.7% Haywood 0.5% Mitchell 1.2% Wilkes 0.5% Caldwell Madison 0.5% 0.4% McDowell Burke 2.1% 0.9% Buncombe Swain 0.6% Graham 2.9% 2.6% Transylvania 0.0% Macon 1.4% Cherokee 3.4% 2.3% 1.1% Clay Jackson 0.6% Polk Henderson 0.6% 0.6% Surry Stokes 0.4% 2.2% Yadkin Forsyth 0.6% Alexander 2.1% 1.6% Iredell Catawba 1.1% Lincoln 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% Randolph Rowan 1.9% Cabarrus Lee Stanly Cleveland Gaston 0.7% 2.7% Montgomery Moore 4.4% Mecklenburg 2.4% 0.2% Union Anson 0.5% Halifax 1.0% Pasquotank 0.0% Johnston Harnett Wayne 1.6% Hoke 0.7% 3.0% Lenoir Craven Chowan Dare 0.4% Beaufort Pamlico 0.6% Jones 2.2% Duplin 0.7% Onslow 0.4% Scotland 0.9% Richmond Robeson 3.6% Hyde 3.8% Sampson Washington Greene 1.1% 1.7% 0.4% Martin 0.8% Pitt Perquimans Tyrrell 0.4% 1.5% 0.9% Cumberland Bertie Edgecombe Wilson 0.5% 0.1% 1.9% 0.8% Wake 2.1% 0.7% Currituck 1.9% Gates 0.5% Nash Chatham 0.5% Rutherford Franklin Durham 4.9% Alamance 1.1% Camden 0.2% Orange 2.3% Guilford 1.2% Davidson Warren 3.0% 2.7% Davie 0.6% 0.2% Person 0.3% Hertford 0.5% Rockingham Caswell 1.7% Northampton 1.6% 0.2% Bladen Carteret 1.2% Pender 0.4% North Carolina Counties 2000 Percentage of Population at Catholic Churches Beige = Higher Rose = Medium Blue = Lower Columbus 1.6% Brunswick © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 4.2% New Hanover 0.0% to 1.0% 1.0% to 2.0% 2.0% to 5.9% No data 32 The Next Map shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. 28 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 72 counties declined. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 33 Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Christian Church Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County The Next 3 Maps show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in North Carolina between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, 34 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 66 counties declined. For Mainline churches, 24 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 76 counties declined. For Catholics, 71 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 17 counties declined. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 35 Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County 34.5% -4.6% 123.2% Watauga -16.5% 90.9% Yancey Mitchell 480.7% Haywood 18.3% Caldwell Madison 69.1% 44.0% McDowell Burke 29.7% -7.3% Buncombe Swain 164.7% Graham Macon 67.9% Cherokee 133.7% 89.5% 68.5% Transylvania -22.3% 89.1% 78.7% Clay Jackson -6.8% Polk Henderson 53.0% 33.0% Surry Stokes Wilkes 42.6% -3.7% Yadkin 238.0% Alexander 75.6% 11.7% Iredell Catawba 76.2% Lincoln 14.2% 315.9% Guilford 30.3% Davie 61.5% 4.6% Warren 79.1% Cabarrus Cleveland Gaston 28.0% Mecklenburg Franklin Durham 31.6% 161.8% 186.2% Randolph Chatham Rowan 74.9% Orange 19.3% Alamance Davidson Lee 5.5% 25.0% Montgomery Moore 214.9% 83.3% Union Anson Halifax Pasquotank -100.0% 44.6% Nash Edgecombe Johnston Sampson Hoke Beaufort Hyde Craven Pamlico 433.3% Duplin 12.0% 3.7% Scotland 103.5% Richmond Robeson Chowan Dare Jones 377.6% 46.2% 29.1% -17.0% Lenoir 5.3% Perquimans Tyrrell Washington Greene Wayne 8.1% Harnett Martin -3.6% Pitt -2.6% 5.2% 137.7% 43.4% Wilson Cumberland Bertie 0.8% 162.9% -9.1% -44.7% 112.1% Onslow 9.5% North Carolina Counties 1990-2000 Percentage of Population Growth or Decline at Catholic Worship in any Given Sunday. Maroon = Growth Blue = Decline Currituck 17.7% 5.7% 156.4% Wake 12.2% 25.4% Stanly Camden 6.3% 36.9% Forsyth -22.0% Hertford Gates 55.7% 37.0% Rockingham Caswell Person 20.6% Rutherford Northampton Granville Vance 49.7% Avery 32.3% Ashe 81.2% -64.5% Alleghany -0.6% 7.9% Bladen Carteret 196.8% Pender -7.3% Columbus 52.3% Brunswick 56.4% New Hanover Decline Growth No data © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 38 The Final Chart shows the net gain in the number of churches in North Carolina in the past decade. There was a net gain of 141 churches. However, 2829 churches were needed to keep up with population growth from 1990 - 2000. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 39 Increase in Number of Churches in North Carolina Between 1990 & 2000 2829 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 329 500 141 5 0 -198 -500 -1000 Evangelical Mainline Catholic Total Gain © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use Increase Needed to Maintain 1990 Ratio of Churches to Population 40 The State of the Church in North Carolina . . . All groups, Evangelicals, Catholics, Mainline and total numbers, are growing in North Carolina. But Catholics are the only group growing fast enough to keep up with and exceed population growth. Catholics have increased 38% in the percentage of the population attending a Catholic church. As a result of population growth, the percentage of the population attending church has decreased in all categories, resulting in a 5% loss in the state-wide percentage of the population that attended church between 1990 and 2000. A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient net gain in the number of churches in North Carolina. 2681 additional churches needed to have been started in the previous decade to compensate for the decline in percentage attendance. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 41 For More Information . . . Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on the American Church. 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm The complete North Carolina Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UNC20.htm The Complete Charlotte Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Charlotte.htm The Complete Raleigh Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Raleigh.htm The Complete Greensboro Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Greensboro.htm The complete North Carolina Combo Pack is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/NC0.htm © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 42 Information on the Information The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline. Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled. African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches. This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as accurate an estimate as possible. Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the 1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches. In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from 1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located. Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study. This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 43 This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual churches. It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox Christian churches.1 1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and © 2004 by David T. Olson increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%. Sample - Not for Public Use 44 For More Information . . . Presentations such as this are available for the largest 100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to show what is happening in the American church. Presentations are available either by direct download, CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for ordering information. To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at DaveTOlson@aol.com. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use 45