WWRP Polar Prediction Project – SERA
Elements
Brian Mills
Adaptation and Impacts Research, Climate Research Division
Environment Canada
Faculty of Environment, University of Waterloo
Waterloo, ON, Canada N2L 3G1
Brian.Mills@ec.gc.ca +1 519 888 4567 (ext. 35496)
ArcticNet (2010)
Chair, WMO-WWRP-SERA WG
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/weather_society.html
Opening thoughts
•
Northern/Canadian bias (bi-polar?)
•
Limited time/thought thus far
•
Implementation will require a SERA
sub-committee with one liaison to the
Steering Group
ACIA (2008:991)
WWRP-SERA & Polar Prediction Project
WWRP Expert Liaison
Research & Application
Interest Groups
(THORPEX-TIGGE)
Core Membership
WWRP Expert Liaison
(Verification)
• social scientists
• users
• engagers
WWRP Expert Liaison
(Mesoscale Weather,
THORPEX-RCs,etc.)
WMO Programme Management
(THORPEX-EC, WMO Forum/PWS, CClOPAGs3/4…)
Projects,
Demonstrations &
Testbeds
ICSU/ISSC/ISDR
Integrated Research on
Disaster Risk (IRDR)
Other Connections (IFRC, IAEM, Earth
System Science Partnership, GEO, WHO,
WTO, World Bank, NMHAs, industry
organizations, IIASA, etc.)
General observations
•
Costs are as important as benefits
•
Longitudinal analysis/perspective and comparison across
social, institutional and cultural geography is critical
•
Value accrues in use (decision-action-consequence web) and is
highly dependent on the context, situation and capacity of the
individual, group or organization
•
Primary entry point should be through National Meteorological
and Hydrometeorological Services (NMHS)
Flows of information and potential benefits
Mills (2011)
Possible benefit areas
REGIONAL
Residents and
Indigenous communities
• lives (safety/health/QOL)
• livelihoods
• culture
• infrastructure
•…
EXTRA-REGIONAL
Resource development
and use
• energy, minerals, fisheries,
water, transportation, tourism,
R&D
• environment
• worker/visitor safety
•…
Safety, security,
sovereignty, and
environment
Improved predictions
in other regions
SERA elements
•
Literature review to establish/confirm weather-related
sensitivities/risks, benefit areas, and applications for decisionprediction scales (nowcasting through seasonal); social and
economic research capacity evaluation (incl. gap analysis)
•
Past-present-future prediction and services perspectives
(researchers-forecasters-primary users…)
•
•
•
•
define risks, opportunities, and decision problems
translation of skill improvements into products/services, costs and
benefits
enabling factors
Traditional and local knowledge perspectives (?)
Mining completed and on-going R&D
•
International Polar Year
•
ArcticNet (Canada -
•
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (http://www.acia.uaf.edu/)
•
Polar Communications and Weather satellite mission (Canada)
•
European, Asian, and Southern Hemisphere activities
http://www.arcticnet.ulaval.ca/)
Mining completed and on-going R&D
ArcticNet (2010)
Important partners/endorsements
•
International Social Sciences Research Council (ISSC)
(http://www.worldsocialscience.org/)
•
Arctic Council (http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/)
•
Antarctic (?)
•
WMO (Public Weather Services), WCRP